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GRAND
NATIONAL SELECTIONS, BY THE CONTRIBUTORS
THE
FLATMAN
Addington Boy -
This old timer is not easy to discount especially if
you take his form behind Commanche Court at face
value. 4th and 5th in past runnings of the race augur
well, but unlikely on balance to improve on that as
age takes a hold. Softer ground has not helped at all.
Amberleigh House - No form and this is not his
distance.
Art Prince - Recent form offers little encouragement.
Beau - Has not lived up to expectations this year in
the highest class. This is much easier and he might be
a Spring horse. Cannot be ruled out. Top weight in
ground now likely to be testing combined with a first
attempt over these unique fences might catch this
relatively young contender out.
Blowing Wind - Has not excelled at the chasing game
(useful hurdler) and generally disappointing - must be
considered a doubtful stayer. Will act in the soft but
conditions will not help him last the distance.
Brave Highlander - Could surprise as an Aintree
specialist. Would have almost won last year but for
"missing" fences close home - probably not
good enough to win now at 13 but has place prospects
despite absence of current form.
Dark Stranger - Probable non-stayer - fell early last
year and makes no great appeal
Djeddah - Overall form profile does not inspire
Earthmover - Always makes mistakes when a race begins
in earnest - likely to prove costly at Aintree
Edmond - Thorough stayer - not in great form
this year. Ground coming right.
Esprit De Cotte - "Team Spirit" in French.
Very little recent form to speak of and has twice
failed over these fences. Ran with promise both times,
however, and is well fancied. May go well but overall
his form profile is a poor one.
Exit Swinger - Very interesting. Sound jumper so far
in this country including around Cheltenham. May find
these fences coming a little early in his career being
just six. Hard to weigh up with stamina the big
unknown, but has a touch of class about him.
Feels Like Gold - Has run well over the course many
times. Age seems to have left its mark however, and
seems to be in decline.
General Wolfe - Does not like the fences (two
attempts) nuff said.
Hanakham - Not a good enough jumper (even at his best
which was sometime ago) to warrant support here.
Him of Praise - Reserve. Not one to trust - ground
coming right. Cannot have it too soft.
Hollybank Buck -Not in great form but soft surface a
help.
Inis Cara - Recent form well below 1999 best (beaten
miles last time) and plenty to prove overall
Inn at the Top - Plenty of weight and an uncertain
stayer. Will not appreciate the ground being softer
then good.
Kaki Crazy - Not to be trusted. Will either love the
experience of Aintree or hate it - I suggest the
latter will prevail. Appreciate the soft.
Kendall Cavalier- Reserve - seems to be well past his
best
Lance Armstrong - Fairly average performer (though
running consistently) but a likely non-stayer
Listen Timmy - Dismissed - so long since any
worthwhile form
Mely Moss - Ground likely to be this one's undoing
rather than any lack of race fitness despite long
absence. Petrol tank will have emptied well before the
real business of the finish begins. This fragile
individual may "fall apart" in the face of a
physical test greater than last year.
Merry People - Reserve. Long in the tooth and little
to recommend from the form book recently. Blinkers
worked last time to bring a first victory for an age
but probably will be less effective this time. Simply
not good enough.
Mister One - Running well in modest events. Better on
faster ground although has won on soft. Will stay but
not quickly enough.
Moondigua - Makes plenty of jumping errors and is not
in form
Moral Support - Chances - having a fine season and
last effort can be discounted in view of a pulled
muscle. The heavier the ground the better and a
thorough stayer. Has gone up a lot in the weights and
the handicapper may now have his measure.
No Retreat -Nothing to recommend this one on two
efforts this season
Noble Lord - Lost his way "big time" last
two starts for no obvious reason. Difficult to
overlook these efforts.
Northern Starlight - Won the John Hughes last year.
Prefers faster surfaces - ground now against this
potential non stayer.
Paddy's Return - Winning form is on faster surfaces
but has run well on soft. Has performed well over the
course. Not out of it, but overall you would have to
think he was not good enough. Makes plenty of
mistakes.
Papillon - Last years victor. Trained especially for a
repeat and better than ever on the course this season.
Seemed to enjoy the Aintree experience. Up a
reasonable 9lbs for his win last year (taking his
weight to 11:5) which seems a fair mark. Has won
plenty of races on the soft, but reported to sometimes
resent it. That could be the biggest negative in this
one's portfolio.
Red Marauder - Did not enjoy the Aintree fences last
year and not so good now
Samuel Wilderspin - Reserve. Useful performer who
suffers from breaking blood vessels. May go well if he
gets in but you would have to think the physical test
could prove too much.
Smarty - Despite winning form over 26F, this one
somewhat surprisingly has shown to have a limit to his
stamina when conditions are testing which does not
augur well for Saturday. May go well for a long way
though of just 10:0.
Spanish Main - Stiff test for this novice despite his
good form this season. Challenge likely to prove
beyond this one.
Strong Tel - Has a good win record. Passed over by
stable jockey and one would have to suspect this
lightly raced individual (despite being 11 years old)
continues to have his problems and does not retain all
his ability.
Supreme Charm - Won Sporting Index Chase (31F) earlier
this year and has run well before over the course.
Despite this, best winning form generally at shorter
distances and Index performance probably best ignored.
Without that effort looks vulnerable.
The Last Fling - Trained specifically for the race and
although he has lost his form might return to his best
here. Trainer very happy with the horse. Used to be a
poor jumper but improved enough to get 'round here
last year. Nicely down in the weights since his poor
form. Chances.
Tresor De Mai -Usually blunders his way 'round which
will be his undoing. 11-2 is plenty enough weight.
Unsinkable Boxer - Probably no longer the force of old
- too severe a test.
Village King - Running well when falling last year.
Form better at shorter trips but looks as if he will
stay. Indifferent to ground conditions. Running
consistently well but an infrequent winner. Chances,
but opposable on balance.
You're Agoodun -Not a good enough jumper to entertain
'round here - likely early faller
SUMMARY
This is not a great contest and Beau's mark of 153
demonstrates this point. I think there is a danger
that Papillon might be largely overlooked because of
the poor record that National winners have in trying
for a repeat success and that he looks to have his
fair share of weight. But, he is only on a 9lbs higher
mark from last year. This is offset in my view by his
apparent improved form since and the fact that he
clearly enjoyed himself so much last year. If, he is
to get beat then I think it will be his attitude that
is the key factor rather than the opposition he will
encounter. He has sometimes resented the soft (most
likely to be present on Saturday) which will make this
a much harder physical test than last year. From
revelling in the challenge, it could quite easily go
the other way.
I can fancy only a few of the opposition however. Beau
has the class, but I cannot believe his front running
style on a soft surface is conducive to success under
top weight. Edmond is from a stable in top shape -
unlike his overall form this year - but the ground and
distance should pose no fears for this one. I do not
like the fact that he wears blinkers on Saturday and
these could have a negative effect. Moral Support has
had a grand season and will relish the testing
conditions. He has gone up a long way in the weights
and may find trouble early on if unable to lay up with
the usual fast pace. I suspect he will find trouble. I
like Exit Swinger but the combination of his unknown
stamina and the physical test on this youngster will
surely prove to much. This leaves just two others in
my view - Brave Highlander and The Last Fling. Both
have shown nothing recently but both have been
especially trained for the race and are liable to find
plenty. Brave Highlander , is of course following a
well worn path and despite his age I think he can
again go well. I'm fairly sure he would nearly have
won last year but for crucial mistakes at a key time.
It would not surprise me if this Aintree specialist
can deliver the goods as jumping the fences is a key
thing to have on your side. Jumping used to be the
Last Fling's big problem but he got around last year
when finishing seventh after a tough campaign. He is
tough and has come down in the weights to a nice
racing weight. Despite, the trainers confidence in the
horse, it takes a big chunk of faith to be over
confident that he can win it though on current
performance. However, he is so tough, will like the
prevailing conditions and may have learnt plenty from
jumping the course last year.
As I cannot drum up maximum confidence to oppose
Papillon I take this one to defend his crown. For the
big long shot, (they always seem to get into the frame
don't they?) I suggest Moondigua. But, I see the main
danger, if Papillon downs tools, as The Last Fling.
"CHRISTOPHER
ILES"
"1st CHOICE" - Papillon
"(e/w) Alternative" - The Last Fling
"LONG*SHOT!!" - Moondigua
AA
ALL WEATHER
Papillon, well
weighted to repeat last year's success
e/w _ Exit Swinger. touch of class could go well
"AA
ALL-WEATHER"
"1st CHOICE" - Papillon
"(e/w) Alternative" - Exit Swinger
"LONG*SHOT!!" -
CHRISTOPHER
ILES
The only tip from these parts is Bilboa. I suppose I
have to put forward a National horse, in which case
Inis Cara gets the vote, though without much
confidence. I'm not too impressed by the race. I'd
concede Papillon has a good chance of repeating, but
wouldn't touch the likes of Earthmover (jumping),
Edmond (likely to be blinkered, and resented them last
time), Mely Moss (stable badly out of form), and the
assortment of 2.5 milers and novices that appear to
make up the field.
"CHRISTOPHER
ILES"
"1st CHOICE" - Inis Cara
"(e/w) Alternative" -
"LONG*SHOT!!" -
THE
ROOK
Last but by no means least !!!
I tend to share the view that this isn't the greatest
renewal, under the circumstances though it isn't a bad
field at all.
Conditions have deteriorated alarmingly over the last
48 hours, and this is going to be a war of attrition.
Its amazing how few of these would pass any normal
gauge on the ability to stay under normal
circumstances; therefore don't be put off of a horse,
if the write-up in the press suggests "It has the
class .... but" .... have a little cover bet on
it , you'll kick yourself if it could have won you
some money!!
I've been through the horses , and these ones keep
attracting my eye
TRESOR DE MAI - Goes on the ground, and despite what
commentators say about his jumping has managed to
complete Haydock every time he's been there. He has a
touch of class, and either will love it or hate it
PADDY'S RETURN - A thinker, but has jumped these
fences before
PAPILLON - Great chance at the weight
EDMOND - I've been keen on him all week, the ground
have come right for him, why o why the blinkers though
?
MELY MOSS - Despite the ground, must go well again
NORTHERN STARLIGHT - ditto
EXIT SWINGER - May be only six but has a touch of
class, and should like the surface, strong eachway
claims if he stays
KAKI CRAZY, - Will either love it or hate it !!!,...
has everything in his favour if he bites !!!, doesn't
get on with AP, so it did not surprise that he wasn't
interested
VILLAGE KING - Backed him last year, and spat blood
when he fell when travelling well, should go well
again
ESPIRIT DE COTTE - Fell at Bechers last year, second
time around when going well... Looks a National Horse
to me, and should go well again
STRONG TEL -Worried about the ground slightly, but has
always been held in high regard, eighth in the
Hennessy so needs to improve a bit here
Everything points to Edmond, and whilst I share
Christopher's concerns about the blinds, he is the one
certain horse to revel in conditions at the head of
the market. Papillon; another thinker who will either
gainfully defend the crown, or sulk all the way
around, if he bites he'll go well again, but will
struggled to concede weight here. I'm a little worried
about the distance in the ground with Northern
Starlight but he should at the very least get round,
and I'll be keeping an eye out for the hunters - Paddy
Return, Mely Moss, Exit Swinger, and Strong Tel, who
will aiming to 'play' late
Edmond, carrying 10-1 on bottomless ground stands out
like a beacon, and would be my idea of the likely
winner, but is absolutely no value whatsoever
I'll go with Paddy's Return (e/w).. a thinker but will
be hunted round, and should act on the surface,
hopefully he'll be played let. My Longshot is Exit
Swinger, his form is outstanding (in the context of
this race), and we know he stays 2m4f... He might just
nick a place.
"THE ROOK"
"1st CHOICE" - Paddy's Return (e/w)
"Alternative! - Edmond
"LONG*SHOT!!" - Exit Swinger
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