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Analysis
& Selections by THE ROOK - Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs,
we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the
fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and
requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner
or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular
may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the
"ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is
the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are
the likeliest winners; (¹
NØ.1 CHOICE ),
as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; (²E/W
ALTERNATIVE ) .
Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
AYR
Saturday 22nd September
1:50 Carrick Architects European Breeders Fund Novice Stakes £6000 added, 2yo only, 1m, penalty £4309.50, 5 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] --> Sophorific, who ran well when finishing second to Echo River at Sandown in July is preferred to Bandari in the opener.
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Sophorific,
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] -->
2:20 Faucets First For Faucets Firth of Clyde Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) £20000 added, 2yo only fillies, 6f, penalty £12713.60, 8 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[Runner(s) mentioned in our "Future Winners" Feature] -->Negligee,
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] -->Roundtree, third behind Serious Play in June; Entrap, a respectable fourth to Leggy Lou at Ascot in July; Misterah who last time out was just touched off by 'owner companion' Tashawak at Salisbury; Good Girl, a useful sort who is better than her run last week behind Saddad at the St Leger meeting suggests, and our "Future Winners" runner Negligee, who goes for a hat trick of wins after beating White Rabbit at Chester in August, are the horses to concentrate on in the second. Misterah is highly regarded, and the 1000 Guineas was in the air before her last effort... she could easily be too good for these. I'll side with the pr0ogressive Negligee. Barry Hills wouldnt have aimed her here, after her initial win at Salisbury, if he didn't she was up to the task
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Negligee
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] -->Entrap (USA)
2:50 Daily Record Doonside Cup (Listed Race) £22000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 2f 192yds, penalty £14089.60, 5 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[Runner(s) mentioned in our "Horses to Follow" Feature] -->Delius (USA)
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] -->Albarahin, who comfortably, won at Newmarket in August, beating Travelmate by 4lengths. should be too good for Delius et al in a disappointing third event
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Albarahin (USA)
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] -->
3:25 Tote Ayrshire Handicap £25000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £19877, 16 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] -->Great News, Kelburne, Supreme Salutation, Whale Beach, Lady Bear, Celebration Town, Donna's Double, and It's Our Secret, look best in an open handicap. If Great News was in the same sort of form he showed around this time last year, he would be virtually unbeatable here, however that isn't the case , and he'll need to perform to a higher standard than when a well beaten tenth behind Digital at York in July to figure here. I would have to go with Kelburne, who despite rising in the weights continues to run well. A repeat of his recent second to Niagara at Hamilton, would see him going close here
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Kelburne (USA)
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] --> Supreme Salutation
4:05 Tote Ayr Gold Cup Showcase Handicap £100000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £65000, 29 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[Runner(s) mentioned in our "Future Winners" Feature] -->Abbajabba
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] -->Guinea Hunter, Summerhill Parkes, Ghazal, Antonio Canova, Indian Spark, Continent, Abbajabba, Armagnac, Ho Leng, Technician ,Brevity, Jessica's Dream and Smokin Beau all appeal in a typically open Ayr Gold Cup. There appears to be plenty of pace spread across the course, so unlike yesterday, (where the far side had a distinct advantage) it may be dangerous to simply assume that you want drawn on the far side of the course. The runners drawn stands side weren't beaten very far, and appear to have a better chance today.
Although its possible that Antonio Canova, could again co0me in for strong support here, in my (humble) opinion, it appears that in Guinea Hunter, Summerhill Parkes, and Ghazal, punters have three horses, who may be better than class B handicap company. and despite carry a big weight, each appears to hold strong claims of taking the prize. Guinea Hunter, ran a great trial for this. Despite getting a clear run entering the final furlong, he ran on with purpose to only finish, 1/2l behind Smokin Beau in the Portland last week at Doncaster, whilst Summerhill Parkes, and Ghazal, come here on the back of wins in conditions events; Summerhill Parkes, won a listed event at Haydock, Ghazal won with equal authority at Yarmouth last month. I'll go with Summerhill Parkes, whose looks potentially really wel treated here. Ghazal looks a solid eachway bet, and its only because I want to find an attractive alternative to my selection, that i wont select him here.
(A LONG*SHOT ) -- Those attempting to find an interesting longshot could do worse than Ho Leng, for whom conditions look certain to suit, or The Tatling who only just failed on his first run for David Nichols last week at Epsom, and who should appreciate this fairer course .... he'll do for me
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Summerhill Parkes,
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] --> The Tatling
4:40 McEwan's 70/- Ale Stayers Rated Stakes (Handicap) £10000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 5f 13yds, penalty £6254.72, 8 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] -->Border Comet, Mana d'Argent, Prairie Falcon, Mumbling, and Among Equals look best in the penultimate event. This field contains runners who either are out of sorts, or who come here on the back or a poor effort. Border Comet, falls into the latter category, having finished well behind Askham at Goodwood on his last effort. That wouldn't be good enough to take this, however he wouldnt need to improve much, and in the hope that he can, he is preferred to Mumbling
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Border Comet,
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] --> Elmutabaki
5:10 Elan Computing Handicap (for the Weir Memorial Trophy) £10000 added, 3yo plus, 7f 50yds, penalty £8060, 17 runners.
[±±±±±± THE FURLONG POLE ±±±±±±]
[T.H.E. R.O.O.K.] --> Desert Fury, Lucefer, Lady Pahia, Full Spate, Parting Shot, Coppermalt, Cryfield, Encounter and Haulage Man make most appeal in the finale. Lucefer who won his latest effort at Musselburgh, with a bit in hand, makes plenty of appeal, in another disappointing event. He is preferred to Full Spate, whose poor start may have cost him dearly at Ripon last time out, and Encounter
[1ST CHOICE ¹] --> Lucefer,
[POSITIVES & NEGATIVES?] -->
[E/W ALTERNATIVE ²] --> Encounter
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