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Analysis
& Selections by
der dØlehest Hengstföhlen
Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
2002 BREEDERS' CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS
Arlington Park, Arlington Heights, Illinois
Saturday, October 26, 2002
Regular readers of the website will no doubt know that American racing does take a back seat due to our other commitments. With that in mind, here are the thoughts of der dØlehest Hengstföhlen (a collaboration between The Rook and AA All-Weather) on how the Breeder's Cup 2002 will pan out.
|¨¨ Iª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- ''Right Here Right Now'' Handicap (gr. 1)
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Gold Mover,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Harmony Lodge,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Oglala Sue,
|¨¨ IIª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- Black Tie Affair Handicap (gr. 1)
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Hero's Tribute,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Generous Rosi,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Balto Star,
|¨¨ IIIª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- Breeders' Cup Distaff (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (gr.1) $2 Million - Mt. 1800
[ 1 ]¯ Two Item Limit 56 R.Douglas 1
[ 2 ]¯ Summer Colony 56 J. Velazquez 2
[ 3 ]¯ Farda Amiga 54 P.Day 3
[ 4 ]¯ Azeri 56 M.Smith 4
[ 5 ]¯ Imperial Gesture 54 J.Bailey 5
[ 6 ]¯ Mandy's Gold 56 J.Santos 6
[ 7 ]¯ Starrer 56 P.Valenzuela 7
[ 8 ]¯ Take Charge Lady 54 E. Prado 8
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- When I was going through the form of this meeting on the internet on Thursday, the Distaff appeared to be one of the more competitive races on the card and I would not put any punter off who believed that
Azeri, Imperial Gesture, Summer Colony or Farda Amiga could land the spoils. Azeri will probably go off as favourite. She comes into the race in good heart having landed the Lady's Secret Handicap at Santa Anita on her last outing. She is unbeaten since she was beaten in the by Summer Colony and must go close if she translates her good West Coast form here. Even if she should, she is taking on some decent 3-year-olds who come into this event in good form. Godolphin have several good chances at the meeting and it's not inconceivable that Imperial Gesture could get the night off to a good start. She was
second to Tempera in the Fillies Juvenile 12 months ago and appears to be peeking for this meet, if her win in the Beldame Stakes at
Belmont, (where she beat Summer Colony) is anything to go by. We know that Summer Colony is capable of better than that so it may be premature to take that form at face value. The other possible is Farda
Amiga, the winner of the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in May. She is relatively lightly raced and wants probably a slightly longer trip.
Azeri is probably the best of these, however there is a good chance that she might not reproduce her form. I'll take Imperial Gesture to hold Farda
Amiga' s late rally.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Imperial Gesture
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Farda Amiga
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Azeri
|¨¨ IVª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- Long John Silver's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr.1) $1 Million - Mt. 1800
[ 1 ]¯ Santa Catarina 54 J.Bailey 1
[ 2 ]¯ Ivanavinalot 54 M. Cruz 2
[ 3 ]¯ Composure 54 M.Smith 3
[ 4 ]¯ Storm Flag Flying 54 J. Velazquez 4
[ 5 ]¯ Humorous Lady 54 A. Solis 5
[ 6 ]¯ Ruby's Reception 54 T. Thompson 6
[ 7 ]¯ Sea Jewel 54 P.Valenzuela 7
[ 8 ]¯ Buffythecenterfold 54 M.Garcia 8
[ 9 ]¯ Atlantic Ocean 54 V.Espinoza 9
[ 10 ]¯ Westerly Breeze 54 R. Albarado 10
[ 11 ]¯ Appleby Gardens 54 R. Migliore 11
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>-Plenty of these seem to have chances of sorts. However, Storm Flag Flying goes into this as a particularly strong favourite having won her 3 races to date in the manner of a good horse. After winning her maiden, she was particularly impressive when landing the Grade 1 Matron Stakes beating Wild Snitch by 13 lengths before outbattling Santa Catarina in the Frizette Stakes on her most recent start. It is difficult to see Santa Catarina reversing the placings, however her stablemate Composure is more interesting. She won the Oak Leaf Stakes (a good guide for finding winners of this race) at Santa Anita by 3 lengths beating Buffythecenterfold and is the likeliest trouble the favourite. Storm Flag Flying is the logical choice.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Storm Flag Flying
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Composure
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Buffythecenterfold (e/w)
|¨¨ Vª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile (gr.1) $1 Million - Mt. 1600
[ 1 ]¯ Forbidden Apple 57 C. Nakatani 1
[ 2 ]¯ Beat Hollow 57 J.Bailey 2
[ 3 ]¯ Medecis 55½ A. Solis 3
[ 4 ]¯ Good Journey 57 P.Day 4
[ 5 ]¯ Domedriver 57 T.Thulliez 5
[ 6 ]¯ Green Fee 57 J. Velazquez 6
[ 7 ]¯ Aldebaran 57 J.Chavez 7
[ 8 ]¯ Del Mar Show 57 P.Valenzuela 8
[ 9 ]¯ Boston Common 55½ R.Douglas 9
[ 10 ]¯ Rock Of Gibraltar 55½ M.Kinane 10
[ 11 ]¯ Touch Of The Blues 57 K. Desormeaux
[ 12 ]¯ Dress To Thrill 54 P.J. Smullen 12
[ 13 ]¯ Landseer 55½ E. Prado 13
[ 14 ]¯ Nuclear Debate 57 G.Stevens 14
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- Is Rock Of Gibraltar "home and hosed"? Judging by the attention he gets in the media, the general
consensus appears to be that he virtually needs to show up and gallop a circuit to claim his prize....History shows us that it'll be a far from straightforward assignment. Two strong negatives exist in my mind: a) it seems to have been overlooked that he has been on the go, probably since February (assuming of course, allowing some time to prepare for the 2000 Guineas) and it is unrealistic to expect a horse to hold his form throughout the whole of a season; and b) Aidan O'Brien is reported to have said that his horse was going in his coat - a good indicator that he could have had enough for the season. Add his poor drawer and you can see why he could be worth taking on today. Beat Hollow is not a true miler, however connections know how to peak horses for this meeting and might be unwise to underestimate him. That comment applies to Good Journey (the winner of the Atto mile at Woodbine last month) or Landseer who's had an up and down season, winning the French 2000 Guineas before failing to show his true form over sprint distances. He has since returned to somewhere near his best back over a mile last time out. If Rock Of Gibraltar is to be beaten, it is more likely to be by one of the European challengers. I think the French raiders Domedriver and
Medecis make plenty of appeal as they have been laid out specifically for this, rather than coming here after hard campaigns. Neither of them have form that comes close to matching Rock Of Gibraltar, however they may be fresher than him. This could be very tactical and could require horses capable of changing pace in a short period of time. Domedriver fits that bill. Anyone who saw him win at Longchamp last time will appreciate how well he did to get up having met with plenty of interference during that race. He previously finished
second to Banks Hill and therefore wouldn't be too far behind Rock Of Gibraltar on lines of form through Banks Hill. If you believe the Rock is invincible, then please don't let me put you off. If however, you're looking to take him on with something at a better price, you could do a lot worse than this one.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Domedriver (e/w)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Rock Of Gibraltar
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Beat Hollow
|¨¨ VIª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- NAPA Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr.1) $1 Million - Mt. 1200
[ 1 ]¯ Thunderello 56 E. Prado 1
[ 2 ]¯ Kalookan Queen 56 M.Smith 2
[ 3 ]¯ Disturbingthepeace 57 V.Espinoza 3
[ 4 ]¯ Carson Hollow 54½ J. Velazquez 4
[ 5 ]¯ Touch Tone 57 J.Chavez 5
[ 6 ]¯ Xtra Heat 56 H.Vega 6
[ 7 ]¯ Wake At Noon 57 E.Ramsammy 7
[ 8 ]¯ Bonapaw 57 G. Melancon 8
[ 9 ]¯ Kona Gold 57 A. Solis 9
[ 10 ]¯ Orientate 57 J.Bailey 10
[ 11 ]¯ Crafty C.T. 57 P.Valenzuela 11
[ 12 ]¯ Swept Overboard 57 C. Nakatani 12
[ 13 ]¯ Day Trader 56 P.Day 13
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- Fortunately, we don't have to endure the embarrassment of watching our sprinters get humiliated in this
speed fest. However, there is a good lineup this year and Orientate, Swept Overboard,
Bonapaw, Extra Heat, Kalookan Queen, and Carson Hollow all appear to be worthy of close inspection. Three of these stand out in my view. Carson Hollow (I don't believe a 3-year-old has yet won this sprint) who was only beaten a short head by You (a multiple Grade 1 winner) in the Test Stakes at Saratoga. That was over 7 furlongs, however she is equally effective over this trip; Bonapaw (as yet not campaigned at this level, but has put in decent performances in his most recent starts); and Orientate (winner of his last 4 starts over sprint distances) after having been campaigned over middle distances (ran in the Classic last year). He was particularly impressive last time out and if he repeats that level of form he would be very hard to beat here. He is the selection.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>-Orientate
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Bonapaw
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Carson Hollow
|¨¨ VIIª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr.1) $1 Million - Mt. 2000
[ 1 ]¯ Riskaverse 53½ M.Guidry 1
[ 2 ]¯ Islington 53½ K.Fallon 2
[ 3 ]¯ Turtle Bow 53½ C.Soumillon 3
[ 4 ]¯ Dublino 53½ K. Desormeaux 4
[ 5 ]¯ Banks Hill 56 J.Bailey 5
[ 6 ]¯ Golden Apples 56 P.Valenzuela 6
[ 7 ]¯ Gossamer 53½ J.Spencer 7
[ 8 ]¯ Zenda 53½ R.Hughes 8
[ 9 ]¯ Chopinina 56 E.Ramsammy 9
[ 10 ]¯ Owsley 56 E. Prado 10
[ 11 ]¯ Starine 56 J. Velazquez 11
[ 12 ]¯ Kazzia 53½ J.Chavez 12
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- It's difficult to get overly enthusiastic about the American challenge here. That is of course whether you count Banks Hill as a "true American". It does seem odd that a horse that has been wowing Europeans for the majority of her career can suddenly be shipped onto a boat to become the leading challenger of the home team...I'm sure the French commentators will agree with that sentiment. If she is in the same form that she showed when demolishing her opponents in this race 12 months ago, she'll take plenty of beating here. She had her prep race for this in the Yellow Ribbon stakes where she failed to beat Golden Apples. Banks Hill is better than that form, however it would be unwise to underestimate Golden Apple who probably isn't that far behind her. Our challenge (if you include Kazzia) is pretty strong here as Islington, Kazzia and Gossamer all are Group 1 fillies this term. Islington has had quite a hard campaign and could be going to the well once too often after her brave run in the Arc De Triomphe. She does not make as much appeal as Kazzia who bounced back after disappointing behind Islington in the Yorkshire Oaks by making the trip across to America to land the Grade 1 Flower Bowl stakes last time out. There may not be a lot of pace in this race which actually may suit Kazzia who does like to dictate her own running - more significantly, it has been drizzling at Arlington - enough to ease the ground and take the "sting" out of it. I think the fit Kazzia is the best of our runners, and given luck in running, I take her to confirm that impression here. A word for Gossamer who connections have decided to run here instead of taking on Rock Of Gibraltar in the mile. She is unproven at this trip, however would have a good chance of lasting home on this tight circuit. She could go well at each-way odds.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Kazzia (GER)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Gossamer (e/w)
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Golden Apples
|¨¨ VIIIª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (2yo Colts & Geldings) (gr.1) $1 Million - Mt. 1800
[ 1 ]¯ Whywhywhy 55½ P.Day 1
[ 2 ]¯ Kafwain 55½ V.Espinoza 2
[ 3 ]¯ Hold That Tiger 55½ K.Fallon 3
[ 4 ]¯ Listen Indy 55½ A. Solis 4
[ 5 ]¯ Bull Market 55½ J.Bailey 5
[ 6 ]¯ Vindication 55½ M.Smith 6
[ 7 ]¯ Van Nistelrooy 55½ J. Velazquez 7
[ 8 ]¯ Lone Star Sky 55½ M.Guidry 8
[ 9 ]¯ Sky Mesa 55½ E. Prado 9
[ 10 ]¯ Zavata 55½ G.Stevens 10
[ 11 ]¯ Tomahawk 55½ M.Kinane 11
[ 12 ]¯ Most Feared 55½ P.Valenzuela 12
[ 13 ]¯ Wando 55½ R. Migliore 13
[ 14 ]¯ Toccet 55½ J.Chavez 14
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- It's difficult to know what to make of the American challenge however I would have thought there would be plenty of interest in Aidan O'Brien's runners Hold That Tiger, Van Nistelrooy and Tomahawk. If they act on the surface, you could make a case for each of them. Funnily enough, the one of them I would be least inclined to do is Hold That Tiger who has attracted plenty of support for next year's 2000 Guineas after winning the Grand Criterium at Longchamp last time out. That was a good effort to come from last to first to win just on the line, however his late rally in my view rather masked the performance of the
second, Le Vie Del Colori - without doubt the best two-year old in Italy at the moment who is extremely difficult to pass and who may have found more if Hold That Tiger had challenged alongside, rather than wide on the centre of the course. I wouldn't convinced that Hold That Tiger will appreciate having dirt kicked in his face. I will pass him over here. Tomahawk has had too much racing of late. Whilst there is nothing wrong with Van
Nistelrooy 's form this term, he could run into a place if he acts on the surface. I do like Wando here. He showed a good turn of foot to land the Grey Stakes last time out. He is taken to give Canada a win here.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Wando
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Toccet
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Van Nistelrooy (e/w)
|¨¨ IXª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf (gr.1) $2 Million - Mt. 2400
[ 1 ]¯ Denon 57 E. Prado 1
[ 2 ]¯ Ballingarry 55 K. Desormeaux 2
[ 3 ]¯ Falcon Flight 57 P.Valenzuela 3
[ 4 ]¯ Golan 57 K.Fallon 4
[ 5 ]¯ High Chaparral 55 M.Kinane 5
[ 6 ]¯ Perfect Soul 57 J. Velazquez 6
[ 7 ]¯ With Anticipation 57 P.Day 7
[ 8 ]¯ The Tin Man 57 M.Smith 8
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- Considering the money on offer, it is surprising that there are only 8 runners lining up for this prize. There doesn't immediately appear to be any guaranteed pace in the race, assuming that With Anticipation doesn't make the running which does work against the European challengers. However, I won't be too surprised if With Anticipation doesn't try and dictate matters from the front. The outcome of the race is probably determined by who you think will quicken if, as expected, the race is tactically run. You would expect Golan to be able to out-speed High Chapparal, however you'll need to be able to keep hold of a good position. A horse I think is very dangerous here is Denon. He probably doesn't stay a mile and a half. A slowly run affair suits him. It might be worth having something on him at each-way odds.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Denon
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Golan (e/w)
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-With Anticipation
|¨¨ Xª¨¨ ARLINGTON PARK¨¨¨¨|¨¨¨"- Breeders' Cup Classic (gr.1) $4 Million - Mt. 2000
[ 1 ]¯ E Dubai 57 J.Chavez 1
[ 2 ]¯ Volponi 57 J.Santos 2
[ 3 ]¯ War Emblem 55 V.Espinoza 3
[ 4 ]¯ Dollar Bill 57 P.Day 4
[ 5 ]¯ Perfect Drift 55 R. Albarado 5
[ 6 ]¯ Macho Uno 57 G.Stevens 6
[ 7 ]¯ Medaglia D'oro 55 J.Bailey 7
[ 8 ]¯ Evening Attire 57 S.Bridgmohan 8
[ 9 ]¯ Harlan's Holiday 55 J. Velazquez 9
[ 10 ]¯ Hawk Wing 55 M.Kinane 10
[ 11 ]¯ Came Home 55 M.Smith 11
[ 12 ]¯ Milwaukee Brew 57 E. Prado 12
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¦ der dØlehest Hengstföhlen ¦:¬>- It seems odd to say my next comment since there is a Kentucky Derby winner in the line-up. This is one of the weakest runnings ever of the Classic. War Emblem will no doubt attempt to jump out and make all as he did when landing the Kentucky Derby and the
Preakness Stakes earlier in the season. It does seem though that his supremacy of earlier this season has all but gone and he has it all to do now, having been well beaten by Came Home last time in the Pacific Classic. Although Evening Attire, Harlan's Holiday and E Dubai are capable of going close if they ran up to their best form, it wouldn't surprise me if Medaglia D'Oro and Hawk Wing locked horns up the final straight. Medaglia D'Oro comes into this having won his last 2 starts and is developing a reputation for being hard to pass. Up against him is Hawk Wing - probably one of the most talented Europeans to have run in the race. He has been written-off by many, having finished
second in his last 3 starts. He is interesting here because he tries dirt for the first time (his pedigree suggests he should love it) and he races on
lasix which should decrease the chances of him bleeding (assuming he bleeds at all). I have my own theory about the horse - there isn't much doubt that the horse has put his head up in the air when under pressure in some of his races this term. I suspect that might have more to do with him not wanting to be in front that long. If he were mine, he certainly would have been ridden with that in mind. He could be very interesting here is he is allowed to travel as well as he can on the surface for as long as possible. If he can show the speed he demonstrated in the 2000 Guineas in may, I don't think there's anything in the line-up that could withhold that challenge. Hopefully by now we've made a few quid and we can afford to throw a few of them Hawk Wings way.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Hawk Wing
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Medaglia D'Oro
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-E Dubai (e/w)
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