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Analysis & Selections by
.t.h.e. .r.o.o.k.
Whether it be
"the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er CHOICE), as well as
the next best runners (in our view, this can include any horses who could run well at eachway
odds). Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
GOODWOOD
Saturday 24th August
¦ I° GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 1:45 San Miguel March Stakes (Listed Race) £26500 added, 3yo plus, 1m 6f, penalty £16808.75, 5 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-First Charter, [second to Bandari in the Gordon Stakes (Group 3) at Glorious Goodwood], Spanish John and Savannah Bay, [who finished first and second in the Bahrain Trophy (Listed Race) at the July Meeting], and First Ballot, [looked capable of stepping up to this grade last term, however hasn't progressed as connections had hoped - He finished fifth to Scott's View (beaten 5-1/2lengths) last time out at Goodwood] look to be the main protagonists in the opener. First Ballot, and Spanish John like to make the running .. or be handy, so they have a slight advantage. They really must use it because First Charter is unproven at this trip, despite having stamina in his pedigree. He'll win in my view if this is run too slowly ... add some early pace and I wouldnt be so sure. Despite winning over 1m6f last time out, Spanish John isn't guaranteed to stay this trip, however this Italian Derby fifth, arguably did well to win that race [which developed into a four-furlong sprint], and he may have a little bit more improvement to come..... I'll take him to confirm form with Savannah Bay and take the prize.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>-Spanish John (USA)
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>-First Charter
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>-Savannah Bay,
¦ II° Stewards' Sprint Stakes GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 2:15 ladbrokes.com Stakes [H' cap] £30000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £20619, 21 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-Halmahera, Zuhair, Flak Jacket, Marsad, Talbot Avenue, Peruvian Chief, Pax, Be My Tinker, Alafzar, Woodbury, Undeterred and Golden Spectrum. Course and distance form here is solid and you expect bold bids from Halmahera, Zuhair, Flak Jacket, Marsad, Pax, and Undeterred. Halmahera, so unlucky in the Stewards Cup (again) franked that form with a good effort last time out in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap last weekend. He should go well again, as should Zuhair, Flak Jacket, and Pax, [who gave Dandy Nicholls a "1-2-3" in the Stewards' Sprint Stakes at the last meeting]. They are closely matched again here, however it is interesting that Kieran Fallon has been booked for Pax (who finished third that day) so you'd have to think that he is thought to be their "N° 1 choice". Topweight Marsad has been in good form this term and has only arguably run one poor race, ironically last time out in the Wokingham Stakes. He hails from a shrewd yard who must think he has some chance to have declared him ... he can go well, as could Be My Tinker (at the foot of the weight, who comes here on the back of two wins; at Bath and Folkestone]. The most interesting entry is possibly Alafzar; a winner a winner at Yarmouth last time out over seven furlongs. His pedigree suggests that six furlongs shouldn't inconvenience him and given a clear run he might go well at a nice price .... I'll be brave and take a chance with him [eachway].
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>- Alafzar, [e/w]
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>- Pax,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>- Marsad,
¦ III° GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 2:50 Celebration Mile (Group 2) £70000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £40600, 7 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Firebreak, Tillerman, Redback, Tough Speed, Reel Buddy, Where Or When, and Priors Lodge all have claims in an open-looking renewal of the Celebration Mile at Goodwood. Firebreak who finished 3-1/2lengths sixth to Landseer in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (Group 1) at Longchamp in May, has his first race since then here. His form in Nad El Sheba before that is sound enough - [he was second to Essence of Dubai in the UAE 2000 Guineas (Group 3)], and he sets a fair standard here... however isn't invincible. Richard Hannon' is triply represented. Reel Buddy heads them, after short heading stablemate Umistim in last Saturday's Group Three Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. I've always thought this horse is best at this trip and is probably worth opposing over the extra furlong. Redback [who hasn't sustained his good early season form] and Priors Lodge, [a winner last time out at Salisbury] have chances although the Amanda Perrett-trained Tillerman, and Tough Speed from Sir Michael Stoute's yard appeal more. Tough Speed has been running this term although (he didn't look too keen last time out at Ascot). He has the ability if it can be cajoled out of him. You can make the same comment about Tillerman, who continues to flatter to deceive. In his defence, he must have a strong pace. Without it he always does too much early and struggles to show his electrifying change of pace. The only time we've seen that pace this term was in the Queen Anne Stakes (Group 2). when he only just failed to catch No Excuse Needed. A repeat of that effort would be enough for me and as there is pace in this race, I'll take a chance with him.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>- Tillerman,
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>- Firebreak,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>- Reel Buddy
¦ IV° GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 3:25 Bun Bun Rated Stakes (H' cap.) £18000 added, 3yo plus, 7f, penalty £11507.20, 10 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Granny's Pet, Capricho, Royal Quarters, Inchdura, Resplendent Cee, Vanderlin and Attaché, all have chances in the fourth. Inchdura, is likely to attract plenty of support having won a competitive televised handicap at Newbury last weekend. He should go well again however he hasn't won off this new rating and is possible worth taking on here. I'd take a chance with Royal Quarters, a classy performer who ran fourth in the Greenham Stakes on his reappearance, who ran well off top-weight at Leicester last time behind Kool. That was a good enough effort and hopefully he can hold the late thrust of Granny's Pet, and Attaché,.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>- Royal Quarters,
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>- Granny's Pet,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>- Attaché, [e/w]
¦ V° GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 4:00 Abba Inferno Maiden H' cap. £6000 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f, penalty £4641, 16 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Beauchamp Quiz, Dancing Water, Hakam, Borora, Polar Tryst, Speedfit Blue, Copybook and Galaxy Sam appeal (if that's the right word) in this maiden handicap.... this doesn't appeal at all, and whilst Beauchamp Quiz, [a fair fourth earlier in the week at Brighton] has an obvious claim, she didn't suggest she has masses of improvement to come. I can see her going close, but the same applies to Speedfit Blue. He's no world-beater, however he made eye-catching headway after a slow start, at Folkestone last time out, [never threatening the 5 length winner Ocean Avenue]. He is capable of winning in this class, and shouldn't be too far away. Dancing Water definitely has the form to win this however, he found little when asked for his effort last time out at Folkestone , [over 1m-1f 149yds], and seems not to want to know. Behind him that day was Hakam, who ran as though a longer trip would suit and if i had to have a wager here it probably would be on him. The penny appears to be slowing dropping for Copybook; a backward inmate from Henry Cecil's yard... He would be the eachway option.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>- Hakam (USA)
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>- Copybook, [e/w]
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>- Beauchamp Quiz,
¦ VI° GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 4:35 Chichester Observer Series Maiden Auction Stakes £6500 added, 2yo only, 1m, penalty £4654, 8 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Doc Watson, Miss Assertive, Dubai Dreams, Sparky's Mate, and Liquid Form, make most appeal in the penultimate race. Doc Watson; an encouraging fourth to Muqbil last week at Newbury on his reappearance has posted the best bit of form her and as he look big that day can only improve ... He looks like one of the better best on this card Dubai Dreams, and Sparky's Mate, should follow him home.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>- Doc Watson (FR)
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>- Dubai Dreams,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>- Sparky's Mate,
¦ VII° GOODWOOD ¦¬>- 5:05 Waterbeach Stakes (H' cap.) £7000 added, 3yo only, 5f, penalty £5076.50, 13 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Climate Control, Blue Knight, Sisal, Turibius, Mr Spliffy, Madame Maxine, and White Ledger have chances of sorts in the finale. Climate Control, a good second to Hufflepuff at Bath last time out (after stumbling at the start); Blue Knight, [a winner over Epsom's fast five-furlong trip two races ago], and Sisal, [a fair third at kempton in June] look to be the horses likely to dominate the finish.... I'll go with Blue Knight.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>-Blue Knight
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>- Climate Control (USA)
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>-Sisal.
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