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Analysis & Selections by
t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦".
We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option "
¦2nd CHOICE¦ " as any runners who could run well at eachway
odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP"
& "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.
CHELTENHAM NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL
Tuesday 12th March, 2002
¦ 1° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
2:00 Gerrard Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Gr.1) - total prize fund £90,000, two miles about half a furlong, for novice four years old and upwards.
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬> Vol Solitaire (FR) , Mutakarrim, Like-A-Butterfly , Jaybejay (NZ) , Irish Hussar, Heezapistol (FR) , Forto (GER), & Direct Bearing
¦ are there any runners from "FUTURE WINNERS" our feature which each week, notes horses to watch for follow during the national hunt season? ¦: ¬> Bernardon (GER), Sossus Vlei, Bernardon (GER) & Never (FR) ,
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>The £90,000 Gerrard Supreme Novices' Hurdle has the honour of opening the 2002 National Hunt Festival and this year the ultra-competitive extended two-mile contest attracted a record 156 entries, (17 more than the previous best). 117 still stand their ground at the first forfeit stage, 45 standing their ground at the five-day stage. The race definitely has lost some of it possible edge, which the sad demise of Miros, who may have gone off as favourite however it is still an interesting field ... here are my thoughts on the like contenders;
IRELAND
Like-A-Butterfly; trained by Christy Roche, is also entered in the Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle, (where she hold similar claims). She has looked imperious in the main this term over obstacles, and is still unbeaten this term. Her victories include wins in the Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle {Gr.1} at Fairyhouse on December 2, when she proved four lengths too good for Sacundai, and she repeated the dosage at Leopardstown last time out, where she conceded weight to the boys ... and thumped them. That was her best round of jumping so far, and that is encouraging as it is in this department where punters can possibly find most fault.
Adamant Approach, (who finished behind Like-A-Butterfly that day) may have been found out by the prevailing conditions that that day, and may be best judge on the form he showed when running away with the valuable Pierse Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown in January. Faster ground conditions would certainly aid him, as should how the race will be run. He shouldn't be far away.
Ballyhampshire Boy, who won two bumpers before winning his maiden hurdle and a novices' hurdle at Fairyhouse and Punchestown respectively. There were valid excuses for his disappointing run at Leopardstown over Christmas on his last outing, and wouldn't disgrace himself given the right conditions (though he would be stronger claims in the Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle;
Direct Bearing, who has done nothing wrong so far having won his only National Hunt racecourse outing in a Fairyhouse bumper in January 2001, when he beat Prince Of Tara by a short head. (Who subsequently made Bannow Bay pull out al the stops) ... Fast ground would aid him chances
Heezapistol, one of several horses in our horses to follow feature, would be interesting getting all the four-year-old allowances, if he could reproduce the form shown when winning a Grade 3 juvenile hurdle at Punchestown in January, beating Newhall by 3
½ lengths. (Who has since franked the form). He does though have arguably a better chance in the JCB Triumph Hurdle.
Mutakarrim - won five times during his Flat career, including a Listed race on his last racecourse outing at Galway in September. He changed hands for 135,000gns at Tattersalls in October and is likely to have improved for the experience when highly tried on his hurdles debut
Native Scout - far from disgraced in finishing runner-up to Adamant Approach in the Pierse Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown on January 13, when giving 4lb to the winner.
Sacundai - further proof of the increasing popularity of horses raced in Italy, he was ninth in the 2000 Derby Italiano on the Flat and has transferred that ability to obstacles winning three times including an eight-length rout of the opposition in a Grade 2 novices' hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. He also though appears to have something to find with Like-A-Butterfly on his recent outing however he will like to likely strong pace, and appears to have very strong claims.
THE HOME CHALLENGE
In contrast to the apparent strong hand of the Irish, the home challenge doesn't look quite as formidable. However there are a couple of potential gems.
Martin Pipe clearly holds most of the main cards, having still left the promising German imports Bernardon, a winner at Taunton on his only British start. Having tipped him up before, we are most interested in the likely appearance of Bernardon in the line-up, who Graham Bradley managed to buy from previous trainer Peter Schiergen. Whilst his most recent flat form doesn't amount to much, any horse good enough to beat Proudwings, as he did when taking the Darley-Oettingen-Rennen (Gr. 3) at Baden-Baden in August 2000, as well as taking the Grosse Europcar Meile (Gr. 2) at Cologne on his following start, is worthy of the closest inspection.
Our only concern was ability to stay, and that was dispelled when hardly coming off of the bridle under Tony McCoy. He in our view is a horse with a great future ahead, and given suitable ground would give a good account of himself. These comments also apply to stablemate Samon, who readily held Isio on his hurdles bow (Isio has franked this effort twice since).
These aren't the only horses with a chance from Nicholashayne.
Westender, who disappointed in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot on his latest start, boasts top class form before that, including defeating The French Furze at Cheltenham in November. He'd been on the go for a while so the recent freshener will have done him the world of good.
OTHER POSSIBLES
In Contrast isn't one of my favourites, however he does boast useful form in novice hurdles, although
Eternal Springs is finally translating his useful flat form over hurdles, and won nicely at Newbury last time out
Hitman, good when on a going day, but average when not ... you try and work him out ... a pity for such a talented individual
If he runs at all at the festival, I think Vol Solitaire may try this instead of the Triumph Hurdle ... he wouldn't be far away on his best form
Irish Hussar, would appreciate the likely strong pace here, however whether he has the experience/class to hold his own here is a separate matter
Got One Too, and Majlis, have run creditably in handicap company, however there appear to be exposed, and unlikely to be as open to improvement as some of their opponents ... That of course doesn't mean they cant prevail
Shock Result?
This race throws up the occasional surprise or horse placed at big odds ... who fits the bill?
Some will be surprised if Never went good enough to take this prize, however Francois Doumen's five year old was always doing too much last time out at Kempton, and is better judged on his previous efforts in France, and at ascot where he managed to find 3lengths on Image de Marque III after the last ... not many horses have managed to do that ... A strongly run affair will suit him down to the ground
Dungarvans Choice - Soundly beaten by Iverain on his seasonal reappearance, however he's done nothing wrong in his last two starts winning both by 10lengths
JaybeJay (NZ) - Ex New Zealander Jaybejay was impressive on decent ground last time out at Wincanton. The ground was probably the main factor in his improvement in form, and will give a good account of himself.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
The opening race of the meeting has been further complicated by the current drying conditions. This is surely a worry for Like-A-Butterfly, who hasn't as yet races on anything faster than good to soft. Whilst I am an admirer, this, and the appalling record of favourites in this race makes her an unattractive betting option. That said that isn't what our philosophy is about ... we want to tell you who we think is the best horse in each race, and with the exception of Westender, Bernardon, and Direct Bearing, I am fairly confident of her beating this field...
what of these rivals?... Well Martin Pipe, will no doubt have freshened up Westender, who looked so promising during the early part of the season, however I'm not as keen of the horse easily beaten in the Ladbroke Hurdle last time out ... even if "A. P." takes the ride, I'd be prepared to pass him over. I adore Bernardon, and having touted him over the last two months am certain he'll give a good account of himself. He is clearly very useful of heavy ground, but has won on good ground in Germany ... I'm sure he'll go close.
The same comments applies to Direct Bearing, who may be significantly better than the bare bones of his form at Leopardstown suggests. His good form on the level in bumpers, and on the flat last summer, suggest that there more to come from this son of Polish Precedent... more importantly the ground conditions have come right for him...with conditions in his favour, he is (marginally) preferred to Bernardon & Like-A-Butterfly.
As far as putting forward a viable eachway option, I think that Sacundai, Fireball Macnamara, JaybeJay and Never, look like the horses to concentrate on. I'm certain Never is better than his last effort at Kempton, and he gets the "nod".
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Direct Bearing
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Bernardon
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Never, (e/w)
¦ 2° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
2:35 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Ch. (Gr.1),
total prize fund £125,000, Cheltenham, Tuesday, march 12, 2002, two miles. for novice 5yo & upwards..
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬> Armaturk (FR) , Asador (FR) , Big-And-Bold, Dark'n Sharp (GER), Ei Ei, Fondmort (FR) , Il'athou (FR) , Jardin de Beaulieu (FR) , Kadarann, Royal Auclair (FR) & Youlneverwalkalone
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬> The 2002 renewal of the Irish Independent Arkle Trophy attracted an original entry of fifty-seven and probably is the most competitive renewal in recent years. Nicky Henderson who trained the most recent winner Tiutchev and will be bidding for his fourth Irish Independent Arkle and has a strong hand with Fondmort. He has an obvious claim.. Arguably Fondmort is Henderson's strongest hope following wins this season at Kempton (twice) and Sandown (once). His one defeat came behind Seebald in the Independent Newspaper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham's Open meeting, when he was pulled up after blundering badly two out. Seebald must surely go well here. He is undefeated over fences and appears to have benefited from the unusual policy adopted by Martin Pipe of racing him during the summer jumping campaign.
Apart from his win over Fondmort, he boasts another victory over course and distance in October and two wins this year at Ascot and Warwick. Whilst some crabbed his earlier performances, he did appear to look a totally different proposition when stepped up to two and a half miles. This will stand him in good stead here. His trainer Martin Pipe has a candidate with possible claims: Royal Auclair and impressive winner in his own right this season and is capable of running well; Of the home challenge, others I would consider are Barton (who has made the transition from top-class hurdler to chaser adequately). Personally, he appears the sort who would have appreciated a sterner examination before this race rather than easy wins against substandard opposition, however, that shouldn't stop him from giving a good account of himself here; the Simon Sherwood trained Il'Athou (who has done nothing wrong over fences so far this season in winning all of his three starts over fences); Ferdy Murphy's seven-year-old Truckers Tavern, a winner of three Irish point-to-points (who is the apple of his trainer's eye and appears to be going the right way) who lost nothing when tasting defeat for the first time at Leopardstown last time out behind Harbour Pilot and Paul Nichol's trio Armaturk, Asador and Kadarann. All of these three runners have won easily over fences this season and would give good accounts of themselves, if allowed the opportunity to run here.
Kadarann and Armaturk are possibly the more interesting runners as being only five, they are entitled to receive a weight allowance which despite being reduced could still be significant and it would be no surprise if one of these went very close. There were originally fifteen entries from Ireland and they have several candidates that could go close. Their leading hope probably is Moscow Flyer; trained by Jessica Harrington. This eight-year-old has a similar profile to Barton as he was a very useful hurdler and last season had the fortune to benefit from Istabraq's two falls - He didn't really ever get the credit he deserved when winning the December Festival Hurdle which arguably he won fair and square. His chasing career has been chequered. It began badly when he fell when travelling easily in a beginners chase at Fairyhouse. He then stepped up on that effort to take Down Royal plus victories in the Craddockstown Novices Chase at Punchestown (Grade 3), as well as the Denny Gold Medal Novices Chase (Grade 1) at Leopardstown over Christmas. Unfortunately, a return to Leopardstown resulted in a nasty-looking fall, however, he has recently satisfied connections in a schooling session and connections come here full of confidence.
Others I would consider from the Emerald Isle are Assessed, who benefited from Moscow Flyer's lapse in concentration at Leopardstown and himself a useful performer this season over the bigger obstacles, Grimes - one of the easiest winners of the Galway Plate I've ever seen and Youlneverwalkalone, another talented hurdler-novice chaser, who certainly has the ability to take this, but will always be something of a risky proposition if he continues to produce as little over fences once asked for an effort as he did over hurdles. His most recent defeat by Colonel Braxton is the third time this season that he has appeared on the scene, travelling best only to find little off the bridle
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Moscow Flyer, and Seebald will undoubtedly have their supporters, but make no mistake, this is hard!!. You can make a case for several of these, and I'd want to be on horses proven, or likely, to stay further than the minimum trip, especially some much guaranteed pace early on.
Moscow Flyer has had a recent spin over fences, and his confidence appears top be unshaken. If he can deal with the strong pace, his undoubtedly class will tell in the last half mile. Seebald, who has been so impressive of late is sure to go close in avoiding any trouble when attempting to make his run. This comments applies to Fondmort, whose only defeat was in that manner over course and distance earlier in the season. Youlneverwalkalone has the potential to go close ... if he so declines
Up front, I'd expect Armaturk and Truckers Tavern to be attempting to stretch their rivals ... arguably this may be the place to be, as they are least likely to meet ill fortune in running... I'm certain that Seebald is about to run a big race here, however he may struggle to concede weight, ....and more importantly ground to Armaturk.
Youlneverwalkalone, Truckers Tavern strike me as obvious eachway punts, if you're looking for something at a large price, then Dark 'N' Sharp, who will be suited by the strong pace
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬> Armaturk (FR)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬> Seebald (GER)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬> Dark 'N' Sharp, (e/w)
¦ 4° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
3:55 William Hill National Hunt H'cap Steeple Ch.
Class A, Listed Race, £70,000 Total Prize Fund. 3.55pm, Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 12, 2002, three miles & about half-a-furlong. For five-year-olds & upwards.
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>Ad Hoc, Gola Cher & Hindiana (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬> Eighty-one horses were entered for the latest renewal of the William Hill National Hunt Handicap Chase five of whom are trained in Ireland whilst three reside in France and one in the USA. Naturally we can't mention all of them at this juncture, however, here are some of the more interesting ones that caught our eye:
WEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RAISED BY 5lbs
Banker Count (11st 5lbs) - Significantly improved handicapper this season who has not finished out of the frame. He has gone up a lot in the weights of late...Has the handicapper caught up with him?
Ad Hoc (11st 2lbs) - Not quite in the same form at present as when easily taking the Whitbread, however, will come to hand at this time and this "spring horse" will not be far away.
Streamstown (10st 9lbs) - Outstayed Its Himself in the quagmire at Uttoxeter last time out, more likely to run in the Midlands Grand National.
Solo Lord (USA) (10st 7lbs) - Bruce Miller deserves credit for bringing this useful timber chaser over from the states, however, there is a possibility of him being asked to carry more than eleven stones if the weights rise which may be too much of an ask first time out.
Gunter McBride (10st 6lbs) - The easy winner of the Racing Post Chase last time out and already the subject of a plunge in this race. Looks to have a decent chance as long as the top weights stay in. Would make less appeal should the weights rise.
Royale De Vassy (FR) (10st 6lbs) - Course and distance winner who usually goes well here.
Hindiana (FR) (10st 3lbs) - Has been asked four stiff questions this season over fences and now gets a chance from the handicapper.
Europa (10st 2lbs) - Useful novice this season though readily beaten by Thosewerethedays at Kempton last time over 2
½ miles. The step up in trip may bring about further improvement.
Idol Des Fontaines (FR) (10st 1lb) - Cyriaque Diard's six-year-old has useful handicap form in France and is fairly treated here.
Frenchmans Creek (10st 0lbs) - Huey Morrison's eight-year-old has a nice weight if he can be produced late.
Gola Cher (10st 0lbs) - Useful novice who is going the right way. Likely to be suited by the strong pace
here...his lack of experience/greenness is a bit of a worry.
Carryonharry (9st 13lbs) - Unbeaten novice who has done nothing wrong this term. Should be suited by the style of this race.
Lord Of The River (9st 9lbs) - Subject of a huge punt in the Racing Post Chase and gave the impression he would have finished significant closer had that not been his first race for nearly 1000 days. It'll be interesting to see if connections let him take his chance here.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Gunther McBride is almost certain to prove popular after his Racing Post success, however he races here off of a 17lbs higher mark . Much will depend of which horses stand their ground (particularly those at the bottom of the handicap). Ad Hoc and Banker Count looks has the class to figure, but may be weighted out the race, whilst Hindiana , (considered a future Gold Cup contender by yours truly at the beginning of the season) ,Carryonharry, Europa, Lord of the River, Frenchmen's Creek and Gola Cher all lurk menacingly at the foot of the weights. These last six runners look the likeliest to succeed here, and whilst it wouldn't surprise me if Lord of the River revered Racing Post form with Gunther McBride, this looks a little too close for my comfort. Gola Cher is a horse I love, and his raw potential is preferred to the attractively weighted Hindiana.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Gola Cher
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Hindiana (FR)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬> Frenchmen's Creek
¦ 5° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
4:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup H'cap Steeple Ch. (Amateur Riders)
Class B, Listed Race, £40,000 Total Prize Fund. 4.30pm, Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 12, 2002, three miles & about half-a-furlong. For five-year-olds & upwards
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>Manx Magic (USA),
Çèanannas Mor, & Phar From A Fiddle
¦ are there any runners from "FUTURE WINNERS" our feature which each week, notes horses to watch for follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Idalgo de Guye (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>One hundred and nine horses were entered for this amateur riders handicap including fifteen trained in Ireland and two in France. Sifting my way through this list resulted in picking out the following possibles:
You're Agoodun (12st 0lbs) - Also entered in the Gold Cup. Despite top weight, should give a good account of himself, especially as there is a chance this race might be run too quickly placing emphasis on stamina.
Royal Predica (12st 0lbs) - If you ignore his last start, he has been a model of consistency this season and should be able to give account of himself.
Manx Magic (11st 13lbs) - Useful front-running novice chaser who is certain to set his rivals a stiff question.
Royal De Vassy (FR) (11st 11lbs) - Has a more realistic chance here than she would in the previous race, already being a winner of a similar event over course and distance.
MacGeorge (11st 8lbs) - Returned to form when winning at Warwick last time. Former decent chaser. Would not disgrace himself.
Frenchmans Creek (11st 5lbs) - Difficult ride for an amateur but talented chaser. Could be interesting if he puts it all together here.
Supreme Charm (11st 4lbs) - If I'm brutally honest, I do believe there are better propositions than him. He does boast a good record at the course and that alone means he wants consideration here.
The Bushkeeper (10st 13lbs) - Defied an absence of nearly 700 days when winning on his reappearance. Already being sniffed at by some shrewd judges.
Billingsgate (10st 12lbs) - Agfa Diamond Chase winner has a fair chance off of this reasonable weight.
Sad Mad Bad (USA) (10st 11lbs) - Could be taken off of his feet early on in this but definitely will be running on where it matters most.
Ceanannas Mor (10st 9lbs) - This enigma has a good weight, and might be interesting if returning to his early season form.
Phar From A Fiddle (10st 8lbs) - Improved initially when going over fences, however, gives the impression that he may still be physically maturing.
Nocksky (10st 3lbs) - Useful when last raced twelve months ago and could line up here on an interesting mark. Could be interesting if he has that all-important warm-up race.
Rith Dubh (10st 3lbs) - Talented individual but blessed with temperament. His form figures bar his last two starts show how difficult he can be when asked to win his race. Upping him in trip appears to open more opportunity and although soundly beaten, did not disgrace himself behind Japhet last time out. A decent pilot will clearly signify the connections taking his entry seriously...let's hope they've told Rith Dubh.
Spinofski (10st 3lbs) - Disappointing this season until upped in trip where he has won his last two starts. Not without a chance.
I Can Imagine (10st 0lbs) - Paddy Power Chaser winner gets in here on an attractive weight. One to bear in mind if a suitable partner is found to capitalise on this featherweight.
No Discount (10st 0lbs) - Has taken a while to recapture some of the promise shown when second here to Monsignor in the Royal and SunAlliance Novice Hurdle. Won for the first time over fences last time. Not sure if he has the necessary experience of this.
Woodenbridge Natif (10st 0lbs) - Improving handicapper, who has lost nothing in defeat behind Timbera last time out at Fairyhouse
Falcon De Coteau (FR) (9st 12lbs) - Useful handicapper in Ireland this season staying on stoutly to win at Leopardstown on his most recent start. Sure to give a good account of himself.
The Bunny Boiler (9st 9lbs) - Has 1 ½ lengths to find on I Can Imagine on Paddy Power Chase form, and looks like creeping into the weights
Idalgo De Guye (FR) (9st 4lbs) - If you ignore his last effort at Wetherby he would be interesting if he could creep into the weights as he boasts a good second to Direct Access at Carlisle before taking an Ayr handicap. Only six and still open to improvement.
Amitge (9st 3lbs) - An extremely unusual selection but attracts the eye for two reasons: (i) Firstly, the fact that the Winning Line purchased the mare from Martin Pipe and; (ii) On first impression you wouldn't expect a horse to improve once leaving Martin Pipe, however, Venetia Williams is nobody's fool and if anybody can squeeze improvement from this former useful mare it is this combo.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
A race that hasn't as yet taken real shape, however the chances of The Bushkeeper, Billingsgate, Rith Dubh, Falcon Du Coteau, I can Imagine, and The Bunny Boiler are obvious. Billingsgate's Agfa Diamond Chase form looks solid, and he and The Bushkeeper look the best of the home challenge. Tony Martin knows what is required to lay a horse out for this meeting, and surely his aiming Falcon Du Coteau here suggests he thinks this race is his best chance of landing a bonus award... At this stage he'll do for me.
At larger odds, Don't be surprised if Woodenbridge Natif, Çèanannas Mor, Idalgo De Guye and Amitge didn't run big races
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬> Falcon Du Coteau (FR),
¦ 2nd Choice ¦: ¬> The Bushkeeper,
¦ 3rd Choice ¦: ¬> Woodenbridge Natif, (e/w)
¦ 6° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
5:05 Pertemps Final (H'cap Hurdle)
Class A, Listed, 5.05pm, Tuesday, March 12, 2002, 3m 1f 110yds, £50,000 total prize fund, five-year-olds and upwards
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>It Takes Time, Jurancon II (FR), Majed (FR), Oliver Cromwell,
Tyneandthyneagain & Montreal (FR)
¦ are there any runners from "FUTURE WINNERS" our feature that each week, notes horses to watch for follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬> Ideal du Bois Beury (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦: ¬>After the numerous qualifiers in England and Ireland, 259 horses have been entered. Here are the ones that attracted our attention:
Historic (12st 0lbs) - One of the better stayers on this side of the water this season, however, readily beaten when taking on the best. May be better conceding weight to inferior rivals hence his inclusion.
Spendid (11st 12lbs) - Never quite fulfilled the potential of his novice days, however, has run creditably against the best hurdlers this season.
It Takes Time (11st 10lbs) - Most progressive this season when really capturing the imagination when winning a qualifier for this event over course and distance in December. Outpaced by Jair De Cochet last time out but is understandably currently vying for favouritism for this event.
Majed (11st 7lbs) - Unproven at the trip but clearly still progressive. Easy winner of a qualifier for this final last time at Wincanton and is sure to give a good account of himself should he line up.
Kings Castle (11st 0lbs) - A little inconsistent but clearly talented when things go his way as has been the case on three occasions this season.
Barba Papa (10st 10lbs) - Useful dual-purpose horse at best. Almost certain to have been prepared with this race in mind.
Ballysicyos (FR) (10st 10lbs) - Bounced back to form with a vengeance at Warwick last time. He wouldn't disgrace himself if he were in the mood.
Native Emperor (10st 9lbs) - Improving handicapper who has easily won his last two starts including most recently a qualifier for this final at Warwick. Clearly still going the right way.
Ideal De Bois Beury (FR) (10st 9lbs) - Has shown marked improvement on his early season British form and clearly is coming to himself. Won a decent prize at Ascot last time out and would give a good account of himself if he lines up...though is probably more likely to run in the Coral Cup.
Montreal (FR) (10st 7lbs) - I know connections think highly of this five-year-old who improved when stepping up in distance early in the season, however, ran unaccountably badly behind Native Emperor at Warwick last time and a valid excuse would be required for him to reverse form with that horse, never mind the other opposition.
Iris Royal (FR) (10st 5lbs) - Iris Royal beat Surprising by a neck in the Tote Scoop6 Sandown Handicap Hurdle last month and should appreciate the step-up in trip.
Surprising (10st 4lbs) - Has been a model of consistency this season, however, is a bridle horse who needs to be held up for as long as possible and his most recent start make you wonder whether the handicapper is getting his measure.
Guard Duty (10st 3lbs) - Doesn't boast the form of some other Martin Piper runners listed here, however, he should be suited by this true test of stamina and warrants each-way consideration.
Oliver Cromwell (10st 2lbs) - Model of consistency this season, however, gives the impression (not for the first time) that he might be saving something for himself.
Deferlant (FR) (9st 13lbs) - Doesn't immediately look like a candidate for victory here, however, his most recent "zero" hides a real eye-opener. His pilot suffered the misfortune early on of a slipping saddle. Somehow, not only did he manage to keep in contact with the horse, but jumped the second last upsides the eventual winner before accepting the situation and allowing Deferlant to come home in his own time. This extreme test of stamina might suit him and he may just surprise at a very big price.
Tyneandthyneagain (9st 13lbs) - Put behind him two dreadful efforts when winning at Doncaster at the beginning of this month. Guaranteed to get the trip in a fast-run affair and would make even more appeal if the mud flies.
Farinel (9st 9lbs) - Has gone the right way of late and this promising Irish stayer is interesting if allowed to take his chance from 5lbs out of the handicap.
Jurancon II (9st 3lbs) - As Martin Pipe has numerous entries in this race, some of his are likely to get overlooked. Hopefully a winner of a Class F handicap is one of them. He would need to improve significantly on what he has done but his pedigree/recent form suggests that this extreme distance could suit. You'd like him to be a few pounds higher though.
Nipitinthebud (USA) (9st 0lbs) - Too far out of the weights to be seriously considered as a likely winner, however, this admirable five-year-old has run well in all of her completed starts and could make the frame.
Ravenswood (9st 0lbs) - Similar comments apply here as Ravenswood is realistically too far out of the handicap to take this race, however this horse has top-class handicap form on the level and might just appreciate this stamina test. Again, a horse that is worth a second glance if he's amongst the declarations.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
What a minefield!!! ... This race is extremely confusing and it will not be until Monday probably that the race finally takes shape. The claims of the class acts at the head of the market are obvious, and you wouldn't be surprised if the winner was amongst them. It is also quite clear that the likes of Farinel and Guard Duty has been laid out for this .... I don't know. I've always like It Takes Time and despite his weight he would be in my view the one to beat... he is preferred to Farinel... right at the bottom of the weight, don't surprised if Nipitinthebud, and Jurancon II (assuming he doesn't run in the National Hunt Chase) don't run well at big odds
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>It Takes Time
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Farinel
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬> Jurancon II (FR) if absent Nipitinthebud (USA), (e/w)
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