| |
Analysis & Selections by
t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦".
We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option "
¦2nd CHOICE¦ " as any runners who could run well at eachway
odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP"
& "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.
CHELTENHAM NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL 2002
Thursday 14th March, 2002
¦ 1° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
2:00 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Gr.1)
total prize fund £90,000. 2.00pm, Cheltenham, Thursday, march 14, 2002. two miles, one furlong.
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>JCB take over sponsorship of the Triumph Hurdle, and the first running under the new title was rewarded with an entry of a hundred and three... My idea of the leading fancies:
Londoner - Martin Pipe paid 100,000 Guineas for this gelding out of Henry Cecil's stable. This looked like money badly spent when he unseated his rider on his hurdling debut at Kempton. Less aggressive tactics were employed last time out at Taunton. This seemed to help as he settled more easily which enabled him to out-battle Dancing Bay. Difficult to evaluate the bare value of his form, however, he is entitled to the utmost respect.
Tempo D'Or (FR) - Decent three-year-old chaser in his native France, who first came to our attention when winning a chase at
Enghien-Soisy in October. As a result of his previous efforts, he was included amongst our horses to follow this term. He hasn't done anything wrong in his runs thus far. He stayed on strongly to take the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow on Welsh Grand National day. He subsequently disappointed some in two defeats at Cheltenham and most recently at Kempton, however, it is worth pointing out our view that this is a horse that requires decent ground and the ability to use his stride. Conditions could be ideal, come Thursday.
Giocomo - Has improved with each of his starts over hurdles. Arguably his best two efforts were in a victory in winning a juvenile hurdle at Huntingdon before beating CHECK FORM
One concern - easily beaten by former German raider Eluna at Warwick and arguably needs to improve to beat her.
Lord Joshua - Connections paid 130,000 guineas for this winner of a Bath handicap. It looked a poor buy (considering the second horse
Hernandita was purchased for only 15,000 guineas) when trailing home behind Domirome at Kempton on his hurdles debut. He improved on that effort to win at Newbury on his most recent start but was notably cut down by the second on the run-in.
Newhall - Useful handicapper on the flat who has taken well to hurdling. Improved on her initial third placing on her hurdles debut at Thurles to land a Grade 2 hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. After another creditable effort behind Heezapistol in a Grade 3 juvenile event at Punchestown in January she was awarded a similar event in the stewards room on AIG Champion Hurdle Day
Canada - A useful winning handicapper on the flat. Has done nothing wrong thus far winning his only start over hurdles at Haydock.
Eluna - I am disappointed that Germany have lost an opportunity to be represented in this race as it would have been nice for them to have been represented by this "major player". Former trainer Christian Von Der
Recke brought this filly over to Warwick in January and landed his first ever win in this country when she beat Reviewer (Giocomo finished third). He returned to the venue last month and took a similar event more easily under a penalty. Naturally, because of the success of Giocomo, it was always likely that this filly may be sold and after this race Ian Williams will train her.
Heezapistol - A winner of two of his three starts over hurdles including winning a Grade 3 event at Punchestown in January in which he beat Newhall by 31/2 lengths.
Scolardy - Should be a winner of three of his four starts, however he was controversially disqualified when "getting" the better of a rousing battle with Newhall on his most recent start at Leopardstown following a stewards' inquiry into an incident immediately after the second-last. He was also beaten by Turtleback, (who suffered most in the ensuring melee this day), so whilst his choice is obvious, it is worth remembering his limitations
Sud Bleu (FR) - Sud Bleu is still a maiden over hurdles, but has progressed from promising efforts in his native France, to a creditable second to Giocomo in the Adonis Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 2. He ranged up like a winner off the home bend but raced wide and did not produce as much as looked likely.... something he has done before
Tender Cove,
Volano (FR) - Thrust to the head of the betting after winning on his debut at Sandown, last month, Volano disappointed on his most recent start under a penalty, failing to hold the late challenge of Kirat
Burning Impulse - Another expensive purchase off of the flat.... however this time he got it right on the first time of asking at Kempton in January. Didn't appear to have progressed when soundly beaten by Volano at Sandown next time out and will need to improve to figure here
Find The King - Could do no more than win easily by 8 lengths on his only start over obstacles at Clonmel ...could be anything
Quazar - Bar disgracing himself in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow on Welsh Grand National Day, this horse has done nothing wrong over obstacles. Finished a highly creditable second to Vol Solitaire in the Wragge & Co Finesse Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 2 over course and distance last time out and shouldn't be too far away
Green Ideal, - Green Ideal is hard to assess. He looked some promising when beating Kelami at newbury on his debut, however reportedly "made a noise" when dropping away tamely in the Wragge & Co Finesse Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 2 over course and distance last time out.
Monitoring (FR) - A winner on the level last season at Saint Cloud. At yet unraced over hurdles, but could be worth noting if connections let him take his chance
Reviewer - A winner on his second race over hurdles at Market Rasen, who makes most appeal because to Eluna on his debut
Turtleback - An easy winner over hurdles on his debut who lost all chance of success next time out when "interfered" with by
Scolardy, and Newhall in their tussle at Leopardstown
Vol Solitaire (FR) - Soft ground loving hurdler, who improved on form shown in native France to win two races in this country, most recently at Cheltenham in January. Disappointing last time out at Huntingdon (race won by Giocomo), however, as the race was run in a time, slower than the claiming hurdle on the same card. This may not have suited Vol Solitaire, who was caught flat-footed as the pace increased, and could never quite bridge the gap.
Bula Rose, - Hasn't finished out of the first two all season over hurdles (winning four times) ... this looks a lot tougher
Chopneyev - last seem finishing sixth to Maille Pistol in the Prix Hocquart (Group 2) at Longchamp, Chopneyev might've been interesting if they've got a race (or two) into him before today
Hernandita - Honest little filly that has done nothing wrong thus far, taking too minor events at Wincanton and Southwell ... This looks harder
Hyderabad - useful on the flat when trained by Barry Hills, he has made the transition to obstacles winning on his second start at Thurles... Appears to be safely held though by
Heezapistol on recent punchestown form
Just Murphy - Improved on his initial fourth to Reviewer at Market Rasen no his debut to finish a close fifth to Giocomo in the Adonis Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 2.. Would need to improve again to figure here.
Live The Dream - Looked promising when winning her first two starts over hurdles ... soundly beaten by Tempo D'Or, and Quazar on her last two starts
Naahil - A winner of two of his six starts on the flat, trainer Dermot Weld has always thought he could develop into a decent hurdling recruit
Trained Bythe Best - A winner of her first two starts, who sank without trace in the mud at Southwell last time out.
¦
VERDICT ¦: ¬>
A decent renewal of this race which lives up to the cliché "Several of these have decent chances". My idea of the ones to concentrate on are:
Eluna
Tempo D'Or (FR)
Giocomo
Lord Joshua
Vol Solitaire (FR)
Sud Bleu
Londoner
New Hall
Scolardy
Heezapistol
Eluna appears to have the best credentials through her form with Giocomo. However, whether this German-trained filly will be suited to the courses undulations is a different matter. Of more relevance might be the possibility that
Giocomo' s win (at Kempton's tight circuit) is misleading in relation to the performances of those runners at this venue. It wouldn't in the least bit surprise me if Sud Bleu and Tempo D'Or reversed placings this time, though it wouldn't surprise me if Guillame Macaire's runner did not come out on top. Unless the Irish contingent can match his credentials (a few possibly do) then in my view this is the horse you want to be on. If this proves to be incorrect then it would not surprise me if Heezapistol didn't prove the best of the Irish runners. Sud Bleu, Kelami and Wesley Snypes could run well at double-figure odds.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦: ¬>Tempo D'Or
¦ 2nd Choice ¦: ¬>Heezapistol
¦ 3rd Choice ¦: ¬>Kelami (if absent : Wesley Snypes)
¦ 2° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
2:35 Bonusprint Stayers' Hurdle (Gr.1)
total prize fund £125,000, Cheltenham, Thursday, march 14, 2002, three miles. for 4yo & upwards.
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Many believe that this is the most straightforward race to solve at the meeting, as Barracouda has been backed as though defeat is out of the question. He is without doubt one of the best staying hurdlers we've seen in recent years, and when he is on song - as was the case when he ran away with the Long Walk Hurdle - he wouldn't have many equals ... he is beatable though, as Le Sauvignon (France's Best staying hurdle) has problem of both of their recent meetings, and he has twice displayed possibly flaws despite winning, most recently when scrambling home from Sleeping Night in the
Rendlesham Hurdle. He deserves to be favourite, but he is unattractively short in the betting ... should punters stay loyal, or look for alternatives .... Lets briefly look at his opponents;
Bannow Bay - There are many who believe that this gelding had as good (if not
better) a chance of taking this prize as the peerless Limestone Lad particularly as he has beaten that individual on the two most recent occasions they met over 3 miles. Wasn't particularly impressive when winning at Navan last time but is sure to come here ready to do himself justice.
Jair Du Cochet (FR) - Last season's top juvenile hurdler has an in-and-out season. He has twice looked ordinary in defeat, however, looked as good as ever when winning at Haydock over 2m7f from It Takes Time and Telemoss. An easy explanation for this inconsistency is his inability to act on tight circuits and is best judged on his winning effort. It is worth bearing in mind that his mercurial trainer believes in the ethos of preparing for the "big day".
Liss A Paoraigh - This likeable mare has retained her ability this season beating Limestone Lad on her reappearance before suffering a reversal on her subsequent start. She fell in Istabraq's reappearance race at Christmas but bounced back beating all bar Ned Kelly in the Irish Champion Hurdle. My only concern is that this extreme distance may not suit her
Brother Joe (NZ) - There has been quite a difference of opinion on what race Brother Joe should run in at this meeting. Many pundits suggesting that the faster pace of this Championship is best suited to this individual rather than a stamina test. Having noted how well he ran on the flat last summer, I tend to concur with that synopsis, so whilst his second to It takes Time over course and distances isn't bad form, he'd need to be capable of significant improvement to get involved here
Deano's Beeno - Interesting that connections have saved him for this race as this horse has a history of running well fresh. Not seen out since being well beaten in the French Champion Hurdle last June. Trainer has produced a horse to win the race first time out before.
Magnus (FR) - Magnus progressed last year from winning on the provincial circuit, to taking a valuable handicap at Auteuil under top weight. He then progressed into Graded company taking the Prix Carmarthen Hurdle (Gr. 3) in October from Goudenko and Kimbi, before taking the Grand Prix d'Automne Hurdle (Gr. 1) impressively from Kimbi and El Fuego. He then won the Prix Leon Olry-Roederer Hurdle (Gr. 2) cosily on his debut for current connections, always travelling nicely before quickening past the second Fou du Roy V on the flat with Kimbi in third. He has previously beaten these two off of levels, so did well to beat them conceding weight all round this time around. If he lines up for this race it'll only be because connections believe he can do himself justice and he has the credentials to just that and should be considered accordingly.
Montalcino - Hasn't really built on the promise shown as a novice last season. Whilst he has improved his form from some poor efforts early season, being soundly beaten by Kate's Charm (as he was here over 2 1/2 miles last time)
Hors La Loi III (FR) - No reason to assume that he would stay this longer trip, though if connections indicated that they would have a try you would have to consider this individual
It Takes Time - Also in the Pertemps Final Handicap. Ran creditably behind Jair De Cochet at Haydock on his last start: his first defeat in seven starts.
Spendid- Although he has run creditably in graded company this season over hurdle, this formerly useful handicap chaser lacks the pace to win a race of this nature.
Bounce Back - Frustrating "bridle horse". Has been in the main disappointing since joining Martin Pipe. Not an easy horse to win with.
Historic - Has thrown in the occasional surprise success, however, just short of the necessary improvement to enable him to be competitive here. Usually goes a good pace so should ensure the race is evenly run.
Joss Naylor - There's no doubt that this is a useful novice hurdler, however, this task doesn't really compare with those asked of him so far in his career.
Telemoss - Also in the Pertemps Final Handicap. Ran creditably behind Jair De Cochet at Haydock on his last start. Possibly potentially useful at 21/2 miles but may struggle at this level over further.
Boss Doyle - Soundly beaten twice since winning at Wetherby in October. Would have more chance on faster ground.
Carlovent (FR) - Hasn't won for a while but has won some creditable races particularly against Barracuda. An out-and-out stayer who would appreciate if this race were strongly run from end-to-end.
Havre De Thaix (FR) - Formerly useful hurdler/chaser in his native France who returned after a year off through injury to win on his latest start at Pau. May be wrong to judge him barely on his French form...interesting if he came over.
Rostropovich - Soundly beaten by Istabraq on his most recent start over hurdles but is better than that. He would be interesting if he could translate his most useful form off of the flat last season.
Teaatral - Would have chances on his best form but has been woeful of late.
¦
VERDICT ¦ :¬>
I believe Barracuda has been backed off the boards because it has been assumed that this race will be run at a sufficient enough pace to allow his undoubted class/stamina to out, however, with Historic looking likely to go for the Pertemps Final it seems only Deano's Beeno is there to
fulfill this function. I'm not convinced that connections will set him up here, so whilst I have no doubt he will set the pace, I think he's more inclined to dictate matters rather than tow this field along. We have recently seen a demonstration of Barracuda's fallibility at Kempton and he only just passed the test last time. Only a few of his rivals have the necessary aptitude and ability to trouble him:
Bannow Bay
Jair De Cochet
Magnus
Each of these, for differing reasons have been laid out for this and by far the most interesting of them is Martin Pipe's runner. Although he disappointed British onlookers on his debut at Newbury, there is no doubt about this French import's class. I must profess to being bemused that connections have entered this horse in some of the handicaps when his form figures alone suggest that he is capable of winning a championship event. He is (for those of you not familiar with his credentials) rated the equivalent to Barracuda in France (only French Champion Hurdler Le Sauvignon is rated higher). Connections appear to be worried about whether or not he'll stay. In my view, you're not going to find out by running him off of top weight and asking him to concede 28lbs + to, in some cases, up and coming handicappers. I believe you could have got 25/1 about him for this race at some stage last week. Frankly, good luck to you if you took that price. However he ultimately fares, he appears to be a stand-out stonking each-way bet for this race and if you do not wish to back the favourite, you could do a lot worse than have a little each-way on him.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Magnus (FR) (e/w)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Barracuda
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Bannow Bay
¦ 4° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
3:55 Christie's Foxhunter Challenge Cup (Steeple Ch.)
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Rather frustrating that (for reasons for that I have still yet to fathom) I have one day to write up this race. It certainly would make my life a lot
easier (and yours no doubt) if this race was an early closing Open Hunter
Chase.... Fortunately, as we provide point-to-point selections each week I am used to this "what-if "scenario. The conditions of this race state that over the last 4 years, these horses must have been placed first or second in a Hunter Chase or have won 2 open point-to-points. That demonstrates that these horses are of a decent standard, as there aren't many poor horse that take these sorts of races. This partially will help, however, due to the range of qualification, it's conceivable that this horse could have accomplished his qualification four years ago and be totally useless now. What you need is a list of those horses showing recent form, therefore the
short listed horses would be the following:
Coole Abbey
County Derry
Dan's Your Man
Dry Highline
Fair Wind
Gunner Welburn
Horus
Joe Blake
Last Option
Look In The Mirror
Minella Silver
Mr Dow Jones
Mr Miller
Noyan
Philtre
Real Value
Sheltering
Star Path (NZ)
Ten Poundsworth
Torduff Express
Trade Dispute
Whatafellow
Of these, the final sift is purely based on form shown on the track (be it regulation racing or between the flags). You final shortlist should contain:
Joe Blake - He showed plenty of promise in Irish point-to-points before making an lasting impression at Leopardstown on AIG Champion Hurdle day. In what many thought would be an "easy" for Sheltering, Joe Blake came there cruising coming to the last with the race apparently won only to take a sickener of a fall ending what seemed to be certain victory to Sheltering. It is reassuring to know that Joe Blake has come out and won a hunter chase since;
Sheltering - Has been considered peerless in Ireland over the last few seasons...is his reign of supremacy about to end? After the demise of Joe Blake I dare say most onlookers thought that Sheltering was now "gifted" this prize, however, he weakened alarmingly on the run-in and was caught close home by Ten Poundsworth. This isn't the first time I've seen Sheltering do this in a hunter chase, so it is hard to know how to take that effort. His excellent third in the Irish Grand National may be a better gauge;
Minella Silver - A most progressive hunter chaser last season. This resolute galloping grey can go a strong gallop which he sustains for the whole race as he demonstrated last season at Ascot. Displayed his battling qualities on his only start this season when dead-heating in a point-to-point. Should give a good account of himself here; Gunner Welburn - Clearly a useful hunter chaser as proven by his win at Aintree last April and most recently at Haydock. He does, though, give the impression that he struggles to see out 31/4 miles. That may be worth noting particularly as this race is normally run at a generous end-to-end pace.
Horus - Maybe didn't impress many onlookers when winning at Wincanton on his debut over regulation fences, however, is better judged on his victories in open events in point-to-points. For the last two seasons, he has beaten useful fields on his reappearances at Larkhill, including this year, where amongst his victims was Gunner Welburn. There is not much doubt he is potentially very useful. The only question-mark is whether he has the necessary experience.
Trade Dispute - Possibly one of the most unlucky losers at recent festivals as he did absolutely nothing wrong and was produced with a "perfectly timed challenge" yet was mugged by
Cavalero 's extraordinary final spurt close home. He has won twice at Musselburgh this season, however, a recent injury has affected his preparation...possibly even his participation.
¦
VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Although Joe Blake and Sheltering are respected, I am pretty confident of a bold run from David Pipe's runner...his touch of class may ultimately prove decisive. Joe Blake would be the alternative whilst Minella Silver looks the best of the each-way candidates.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Horus
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Joe Blake
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Minella Silver
¦ 5° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
4:30 129th Year of The Cheltenham Grand Annual Challenge Cup (H'cap Steeple Ch.)
Class A, Listed, 4.30pm, Thursday, March 14, 2002, £60,000 total prize fund, two miles and about half a furlong, five-year-olds and upwards.
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Seventy-two horses were entered for this handicap chase. As with the Mildmay Of Flete this is a race that favours improving handicappers/novice chasers. These were the entrants that caught our attention:
Lady Cricket (11st 10lbs) - Connections probably now regret not entering this mare for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. This impressive winner at Newbury last time will make these go despite her welter burden.
Seebald (GER) (11st 7lbs) - Far more likely to run in the Arkle, however, if anything went wrong there, this useful novice chaser would still give a good account of himself despite his big weight.
Knife Edge (11st 6lbs) - Another individual more likely to run elsewhere. However, this useful Irish chaser deserves respect.
Desert Mountain (11st 4lbs) - Should be suited to how the race is run. However, is better giving weight to inferior rivals than attempting the same feat against potential improvers.
Royal Auclair (FR) (10st 11lbs) - I hadn't initially considered him for this race, however, he is an aggressively-ridden novice chaser who could take plenty of catching.
Turgeonev (FR) (10st 11lbs) - Vastly improved handicap chaser who couldn't have been more impressive when winning the Victor Chandler Handicap Chase in January.
Armaturk (10st 8lbs) - Armaturk is an interesting runner as being only five, he is entitled to receive a weight allowance which despite being reduced could still be significant and if he lines up here it would be no surprise if he went close.
Ilnamar (FR) (10st 8lbs) - As I am a big fan of this horse, I must profess to being very disappointed with what he's produced thus far since coming from France...actually that's unkind - there wasn't anything wrong with his first effort (a creditable fifth to stablemate Cyfor Malta on Hennessey Gold Cup day). It was his next two efforts at Ascot and Doncaster where his jumping deteriorated, as did the bare level of form shown. As I am aware of the potential shown in France, I am prepared to give this six-year-old the benefit of the doubt at present, however, that isn't exactly a huge recommendation for him scoring here, is it?
Red Ark (10st 5lbs) - Very disappointing last time out at Doncaster. However, two previous wins warranted an entry in the Queen Mother Chase. This yard's runners, particularly at a festival are worth nothing.
Inn Antique (FR) (10st 3lbs) - Very disappointing so far this season, however, boasts some decent performances last term. Isn't badly treated if recapturing his best form.
Il'Athou (FR)(10st 2lbs) - Although he still holds an entry in the Arkle Chase, I'm certain connections must be sorely tempted to have a go here with this featherweight. This attacking novice chaser has done nothing wrong in winning three times this season and warrants serious consideration.
Hit And Run (FR) (10st 1lb) - Another who holds an entry in the Arkle Chase, however, having been put in his place by Armaturk last time at Warwick, connections may well be contemplating racing here.
Fadoudal Du Cochet (FR) (10st 0lbs) - Honest handicap chaser who won over hurdles last time. Fairly treated but might be vulnerable to an improver.
Asador (FR) (9st 13lbs) - Should be unbeaten this season but tipped up at the last at Taunton with the race at his mercy. An easy winner on both sides of that effort, he is another novice on a nice weight here.
Dark 'n' Sharp (GER) (9st 8lbs) - A horse I've always liked who has run well on both starts this season. Tipped up at the last with the race more or less won on his chasing debut at Huntingdon, he then went down by the narrowest of margins to beat Hit And Run at Doncaster last time. Potentially interesting as he might creep into the handicap proper.
October Mist (9st 8lbs) - Beat Barton on his reappearance this season but hasn't really built on that effort since. Probably wants a little further but could be nicely weighted.
Batswing (9st 5lbs) - Formerly a useful handicap hurdler, Batswing has taken well to fences winning two of his three starts. Possibly may just be outside the weights, so isn't entirely out of things here.
If there was a significant rise in the weights then Sandy Duff (9st 3lbs),
Donadino (9st), Demasta (NZ) (9st) and Royal Jake (8st 10lbs) would be considered, however they are likely to be too far out to be seriously considered.
¦
VERDICT ¦ :¬>
A difficult race to call with so many of these engaged elsewhere. There potentially could be a significant rise in the weights here. Although he didn't jump particularly well last time, Hit And Run appears to get in here on a nice racing weight and if I had to make a selection at this stage (assuming the top weights didn't run) it would probably be him. Il-Athou also appeals even if he did run in the Arkle Chase earlier in the week, and would be one to consider if he lines up here- as would Dark 'N' Sharp, Batswing and Donadino if they took up this engagement.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Hit And Run
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Dark 'N' Sharp (GER)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Batswing
¦ 6° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
5:05 Cathcart Challenge Cup (Steeple Ch) (Gr.2)
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>One of the more complex races at the festival to gauge, with several of the main entrants declared elsewhere;
Best Mate (11st 12lbs) - It is typical of the current vogue that Best Mate (who was held in such high esteem last season) is now overlooked because his apparent air of invincibility has twice been pierced. To be honest, I fail to see what the horse has actually done wrong. He probably posted one of the best performances this season over the minimum trip when winning on his reappearance at Exeter and was unfortunate to catch Wahiba Sands on one of his better days when finishing second to him at Ascot in November. Stepping up to 3 miles for the first time, he was an honourable second to Florida Pearl in the King George VI chase. Those form figures alone entitle him to the closest inspection in any race and give him an outstanding chance if he lined up here instead of the Gold Cup
Knife Edge (11st 12lbs) - Ireland's best two-mile chaser would be interesting if electing for his instead of the Queen Mother Champion Chase
Asador (FR) (11st 0lbs) - Should be unbeaten this season but tipped up at the last at Taunton with the race at his mercy. An easy winner on both sides of that effort could be interesting if the ground doesn't dry up.
Barton (11st 3lbs) - Classy individual over hurdles, however, I am not as convinced as some about him thus far over fences. Also entered in the Arkle.
Iosco D'Airy (FR) (11st 3lbs) - Fascinating that Jacques Ortet has entered some horses for this race at Cheltenham. (may signal future intentions).. Iosco
D'Airy clearly has ability however isn't always to inclined to put his best foot forward. I watched in bemusement his last race at Auteuil two Sundays ago, as with the race won, he threw away any chance of victory, by veering sharply (almost off of the run in) 50 yards from the finish, somehow eventfully finishing third. I note that the horse has refused before, may not bode well here.
Valley Henry (11st 3lbs) - Looked promising when winning earlier in the season at Chepstow and Newbury, however, let down by his jumping twice at Kempton. Confidence should have been restored when putting in a good round of jumping when beaten for speed by Iznogoud last time at Ascot and is entitled to consideration on his early-season form.
Bounce Back (USA) (11st 0lbs) - Former decent hurdler in France. Hasn't quite made the impact expected by connections, however, his form figures over hurdles suggested that that was always likely. Has too much intelligence for the game, which will mean he'll always find one or two too good for him. However, his form over hurdles entitles him to close inspection off of this lightweight.
Europa (11st 0lbs) - Tom Tate has a high opinion of this six year old gelding who has always threatened to be a useful individual. He has looked like that on occasions, however, is beatable as was the case when beaten fair and square by Thosewerethedays at Kempton last time.
Royal Auclair (10st 11lbs) - Made slightly heavy weather of winning last time over course and distance, however, is possibly best judged on his first effort where he fell when twenty-five lengths clear of a decent field on his chasing bow. Has a similar profile to Majadou who won this race so has to be respected if allowed to take his opportunity.
Ceanannas Mor (11st 3lbs) - Frustrating full-brother to Stormyfairweather who seems determined to hide his light under a bushel. Looked promising when winning the Charisma Gold Cup earlier in the season, but has failed to build of that effort
David's Lad (11st 3lbs) - Although he is the winner of the Irish Grand National, David's Lad possesses plenty of pace (and is a course and distance winner). Certainly worth considering if he takes up this opportunity.
Exit To Wave (11st 12lb) - Formerly a useful novice, but hasn't built on those effort this term.... Not favoured by the weights
Golden Goal (GER) (11st 3lbs) - Considering he is a Grade 1 winner, Golden Goal isn't badly treated here. He has steadily progressed through the season and would be looking for his fourth straight win of the season here... more likely to run at Aintree
Historg (FR) (11st 0lbs) - I'd be surprised if he ran here as Ferdy Murphy appears to be taking a long term view with this useful recruit to chasing. He stuck on bravely to win at Haydock last time, however, might be a little too novicey for this competitive affair.
Ilnamar (FR) (11st 7lbs) - disappointed with what he's produced thus far since coming from France - there wasn't anything wrong with his first effort (a creditable fifth to stablemate Cyfor Malta on Hennessey Gold Cup day), however his next two efforts at Ascot and Doncaster where his jumping deteriorated, were regressive. I am prepared to give this six-year-old the benefit of the doubt at present, because I know what he achieved in France, however that isn't exactly a huge recommendation for him scoring here, is it?
Iznogoud (FR) (11st 3lbs) - lightly raced this season, Iznogoud comes here on the back of two efforts, a satisfactory third on his debut at Kempton, because outpacing Valley Henry at Ascot on his latest effort
St Pirran (11st 0lbs) - Rather disappointing of late over fences, after a promising debut effort mainly because he's using himself up in the early exchanges, rather than at the business end of the race. Might be suited by a small field here, however unproven at this trip
¦
VERDICT ¦: ¬>
Another race which at the time of writing is difficult to gauge with horses doubly/trebly engaged to run elsewhere. Apart from the obvious horses (Best Mate, Seebald, Valley Henry) there are others for whom this is their most likely target at the festival:
Barton
Golden Goal
Royal Auclair
Poliantas
Juralan
Grimes
David's Lad
Arguably the weights favour Group 1 winner Golden Goal who has done nothing but improve this season. He wasn't originally intending to run here, however, as this race could conceivably cut up, it wouldn't surprise me if he took up the option. His better technique may ultimately prove decisive and he would be preferred to Royal Auclair and Barton.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Golden Goal (GER)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Royal Auclair
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Juralan (e/w)
¦ 7° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
5:40 Vincent O'Brien County H'cap Hurdle (Gr.3)
Class A, Grade Three, £55,000 Total Prize Fund, two miles & about one furlong. For five-year-olds & upwards
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>. One hundred and fifteen horses were entered for the finale to the 2002 Cheltenham Festival. It is again another race though affected by the presence of the top-weighted horses:
Magnus (FR) (12st 0lbs) - Martin Pipe set the handicapper a real poser by entering this talented individual which has resulted in a an even more confusing puzzle to solve. For reasons best known to him (I presume it was to entice Magnus to run) the handicapper chose in his infinite wisdom to drop Magnus by 4lbs so that he could get him into the race as top weight. His presence already will restrict the amount of horses that will get into the handicap proper. Surely therefore Magnus didn't need a 4lbs enticement? I can't believe this horse will race here - I mean if you had a horse rated the equivalent of Barracuda why on earth would you race here and not against him? I'll list him in case connections disagree with me but I don't expect him to run which surely means that horses lower in the handicap are at a disadvantage worth bearing in mind.
Copeland (11st 11lbs) - Appears to have been vastly improved by having the "snip" and his impressive wins at Cheltenham and in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury advertise how near to the top rung he now is. He also has the advantage given to Magnus as he will benefit from the possible compressed handicap (assuming of course that he runs).
Brother Joe (11st 4lbs) - Recent form lines with It Takes Time and Hors La Loi III would give him a respectable chance in one of the championship races. He wouldn't be badly in if Magnus and Copeland run, however, could be in trouble if he had to carry top weight.
Ansar (11st 2lbs) - Impressive winner of the Galway Hurdle earlier in the season and has been just found wanting when upped in class. Interesting if the ground dries up during the festival.
Stormez (FR) (10st 12lbs) - Finally given the opportunity to demonstrate some of the promise shown in France (including beating Bilboa at
Enghien-Soisy) when stepped up to three miles last time out. Like those above him, would benefit if the top two stayed in the race - a big ask for a novice to concede weight in a valuable handicap if they don't.
Rooster Booster (10st 12lbs) - Repeatedly the bridesmaid. Can he be the bride? Always likely to run a good race but equally as likely to find one too good. Difficult to leave out though.
Got One Too (FR) (10st 6lbs) - Impressive winner of four races this season, however, well beaten by Copeland last time in the Tote Gold Trophy. Not without a chance despite this.
Timber King (10st 5lbs) - Fifty-per-cent strike rate this season. Stands to benefit if Champion Hurdle rejects stand their ground.
Polar Red (10st 4lbs) - Could be a blot on the handicap if his course and distance win is to be believed. Entered in the Imperial Cup this Saturday and clearly is being aimed at the £50,000 bonus - an obvious chance.
Sir Talbot (10st 4lbs) - Lost his way of late, however, was in the process of running his best race for a long time when falling two-out in the race won by Barracuda at Kempton last month. Was at one time considered to be Champion Hurdle class so could be very interesting off of this featherweight.
The Gatherer (10st 3lbs) - Arthur Moore's eight-year-old has always been a talking horse and on his best can look very useful. Tends to always find one too good for him when up against the best, however, must have a chance at these weights.
Fait Le Jojo (FR) (10st 2lbs) - Not yet a winner this season but placed in some of the best handicap hurdles run thus far. Could be interesting if he proves he stays this trip.
Golden Alpha (10st 2lbs) - Although useful in his bumper days, does appear to be rather high in the ratings, however that has worked in his favour here as several of his opponents could be carrying more than their allotted handicap marks - therefore he has to be considered.
Masalarian (10st 1lb) - Useful handicap hurdler last season - has been successfully trying his hand at steeplechasing. Races off of his proper handicap mark, so is entitled to be considered.
Dark Shell (9st 12lbs) - Group-class when trained on the flat, Dark Shell showed plenty of promise in three starts last season, winning easily on his second start at Huntingdon. Not seen out since floundering in the mud at Aintree but would warrant consideration if making the line-up here.
Majlis (9st 13lbs) - Has improved steadily through this season and comes here on the back of a hat-trick of wins. Most recently when winning the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton. Another horse who's rating appears to be a little high, however is another who benefits from being barely out of the handicap.
Eternal Spring (9st 10lbs) - Beaten fair and square by Polar Red on his seasonal reappearance, Eternal Spring showed significant improvement to win next time out at Newbury. Has other engagements at the festival but would be worth a second glance if he takes up this as his preferred assignment.
St Pirran (9st 9lbs) - Rather disappointing of late over fences, mainly because he's using himself up in the early exchanges, rather than at the business end of the race. Might be totally different if he was buried in a large field of handicap hurdlers.
Benbyas (9st 8lbs) - Tough front-running handicapper who has already made all to win at the venue. Beaten fairly and squarely by Copeland last time, however, could be an attractive wage from just outside the handicap.
Joe Cullen (9st 7lbs) - Disappointing behind Copeland last time, however may be best assessed on his fifth placing in the AIG Champion Hurdle. One to consider (particularly if the ground dries up).
Castleshane (9st 4lbs) - Creditable efforts on both sides of the Irish Sea. Being 10lbs out of the handicap does detract from his chances.
Happy Change (GER) (9st 4lbs) - Group-class on the flat, so the weights don't immediately worry me. Lack of aptitude for jumping is far more serious. Was woeful when last seen but is one that is potentially well treated.
Idaho D'Ox (9st 2lbs) - As things stand, badly in at the weights with stablemate Polar Red with recent meeting over course and distance. Might be better placed if there was a significant rise in the weights - a bridle horse that probably could travel well in any grade though is only likely to sustain that in certain company.
Batswing (9st 2lbs) - Needs a significant rise in the weights but potentially interesting off of his best form.
Achilles Wing (USA) (9st 1lb) - Improving handicapper who has landed three races this season. Not totally disgraced behind Hors La Loi III at Wincanton last time. Could be interesting if he is able to race off of near his current rating.
Blue (8st 12lbs) - Disappointed on his last two starts but had previously shown a good level of form in Novice Company. Really needs the weights to be raised.
Janidou (FR) (8st 11lbs) - There was a moments in the Pierse Hurdle when Majadou's full-brother looked likely to land the honours. Unfortunately, he couldn't sustain that effort and weakened close to home. That was by far his best effort this season and is another who could become appealing if he was able to race off of his handicap rating (or thereabouts).
Cobbet (CHR) (8st 8lbs) - Admirably consistent individual who should be seen to better effect over fences next season. Has run consistently well this season probably putting in a personal best effort when failing to concede 14lbs to Image De Marque II over course and distance. Failed to stay last time. Now tried over two and a half miles.
Colourful life (8st 5lbs) - Found significant improvement to easily land two handicap hurdles recently...a pity as he is a little too light in the weights to be able to take full advantage.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Another difficult race to gauge
at the time of writing, however Assuming that Copeland is declared here, Polar Red would have an obvious chance in the finale, especially with him attempting to double up should he win the Imperial Cup this
Saturday. Should he decline, then I believe Copeland will run deserves close
attention There isn't much doubt that he may have run a big race if he had been entered for the Champion Hurdle, and wouldn't be too far away here (even if Polar Red ran). Rooster Booster, The Gatherer, Dark Shell and Majlis - who is nicely weighted if he able to
reproduce his Lanzarote form, are others with claims however Joe Cullen catches the eye. conditions appear to be coming right for Joe Cullen and it would be no great surprise if he were to land this prize. Dark Shell, St Pirran, Janidou and Cobbet could be interesting outsiders.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬> Joe Cullen
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬> Polar Red
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬> Janidou (FR)
|
|
