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Analysis & Selections by
t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦".
We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option "
¦2nd CHOICE¦ " as any runners who could run well at eachway
odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP"
& "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.
CHELTENHAM NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL 2002
Wednesday 13th March, 2002
It'll be interesting to see what the state of the going will be by this stage. It's fair to say that unless there's significant rain this weekend, it is likely to either be "dead" or "good" ground.
¦ 1° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
2:00 Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle (Gr.1)
total prize fund £90,000. two miles, five furlongs. for novice four-year-olds & upwards
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>Samon (GER)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬> There are still a lot of the original 169 entrants declared for this race and at this stage the final line-up is still unclear. The leading two candidates during the winter for this event were Classified from the all-conquering yard of Martin Pipe and the unbeaten mare Like-A-Butterfly. The entries that capture my attention are :
Like-A-Butterfly, trained by Christy Roche. is also entered in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, (where she hold similar claims). She has looked imperious in the main this term over obstacles, and is still unbeaten this term. Her victories include wins in the Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle {Gr.1} at Fairyhouse on December 2, when she proved four lengths too good for Sacundai, and she repeated the dosage at Leopardstown last time out, where she conceded weight to the boys ... and thumped them. That was her best round of jumping so far, and that is encouraging as it is this department where punters can find most fault.
Ballyhampshire Boy, who won two bumpers before winning his maiden hurdle and a novices' hurdle at Fairyhouse and Punchestown respectively. There were valid excuses for his disappointing run at Leopardstown over Christmas on his last outing, and wouldn't disgrace himself given the right conditions;
Canary Wharf, an improving six-year-old, who won a Grade 3 novices' hurdle at Naas on his last start;
Dalampour, a high-class (if wayward) recruit from the Flat, who won the Group 3 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot in 2000, though proved very difficult to control last term. His 100,000gns price tag could look very cheap if connections have curbed his waywardness;
Davenport Milenium; one of Willie Mullins' top bumper horses last season, has made steady improvement since winning at Fairyhouse in December and he was only beaten five lengths by Canary Wharf at Naas in January;
Direct Bearing, who has done nothing wrong so far having won his only National Hunt racecourse outing in a Fairyhouse bumper in January 2001, when he beat Prince Of Tara by a short head. (Who subsequently made Bannow Bay pull out all the stops) ... Fast ground would aid his chances
Ground Ball, who won a novices' contest at Navan on January 12, beating Bassett Tiger by 12 lengths would be worth considering.
Over The Bar, a winner of a Grade 3 novices' hurdle by six lengths on his debut over hurdles at Navan in November, who also ran creditably behind Canary Wharf at Naas on his last outing. He is another owned by JP McManus who may be tried elsewhere;
Sacundai, further proof of the increasing popularity of horses raced in Italy, he was ninth in the 2000 Derby Italiano on the Flat and has transferred that ability to obstacles winning three times including an eight-length rout of the opposition in a Grade 2 novices' hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. He also though appears to have something to find with Like-A-Butterfly on his recent outing however he would have a better chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Beef Or Salmon - Useful point-to-pointer who won two bumpers impressively earlier in the season after falling at Limerick he won at Gowran Park but was easily defeated by Like-A-Butterfly on his latest start. A horse with a future worth keeping on the right side of.
Birmayne - Improved recently when stepping up in distance to win at Fairyhouse in January and could relish a slog.
Chimes At Midnight - Luke Comer owns and trains this useful performer on the flat who won the Group 3 Curragh Cup last season and also finished third to Millenary in the 2000 St Leger. He ran respectably when finishing second to Jennifer Joe on his hurdles debut two weeks ago and will come on significantly for that effort. Also declared for the Champion Hurdle - has a more realistic chance here.
Kew Gardens - Formerly trained by Amanda Perrett on the flat who finally got his head in front over hurdles at Tipperary last may. Open to further improvement.
Killultagh Thunder - A half-brother to stablemate, the useful chaser Killultagh Storm, this six-year-old gelding has improved with each attempt over obstacles and was a winner of his last two starts. Another long-term prospect worth keeping the right side of.
Polar Vista - Difficult to fault, having done nothing wrong so far taking a bumper at Cork in May and a maiden hurdle at Limerick just after Christmas. Could be anything, though the bare form suggests he needs to improve to figure here.
Pietro Vannucci - Has improved steadily with each run this season winning a bumper on his seasonal appearance before taking a maiden hurdle at Naas before getting within half a length of Like-A-Butterfly at Leopardstown in December. That effort prompted his sale to
J.P. McManus for whom he won on his latest start at Leopardstown. Conditions appear to be ideal and he is sure to give a good account of himself.
Scolardy - A winner of two of his starts this season including an impressive win at Thurles in January. Potentially interesting as he is entitled to a useful four-year-old allowance.
Thari (USA) - Lightly-raced over hurdles, this former useful stayer handicapper on the flat won his first race over jumps at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He was then slightly unlucky when being touched off by Canary Wharf at Naas in January, but was firmly put in his place by Like-A-Butterfly on his most recent start. He will need to improve to figure here.
Tuco - Winner of the valuable Goffs Land Rover bumper at Fairyhouse last May. Trainer David Wachman is bringing Tuco along slowly. After falling on his initial start over obstacles, he has won his last two starts
Yeoman's Point - Fulfilled some of his previous promise when landing two minor events at Gowran Park and Fairyhouse. Did not disgrace himself when stepped up in class finishing a respectable second to Sacundai in a Grade 2 novices hurdle at Leopardstown in December. He would appear to have a decent chance here, though personally I think he has a better chance in the Coral Cup.
THE HOME CHALLENGE
Champion Trainer Martin Pipe set punters a real poser by entering twenty-one of his string. Amongst these is the ante-post favourite for the race Classified. He has progressed throughout the season from taking an ordinary bumper to winning a Grade 1 hurdle at Warwick. Despite these credentials, Classified will be facing his toughest assignment to date, although he fully warrants his place at the head of the market. Other runners from the yard I'd consider are Salmon, who beat Isio on his debut at Taunton in January; Tarxien, who is unbeaten in six starts this season; Golden Alpha, a decent bumper three years ago who has won twice this season over hurdles; as has Shemdani who won at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago. Decent French imports Stormez (who won over three miles at Ascot recently), Ideal Du Bois Beury (who as won twice since coming from France including a valuable hurdle last time at Ascot), Gone Far (unlucky to still be unbeaten when having blundered away his chance of victory subsequently won by Hitman) and Tucacas (who made many friends when running away with a Sandown novice hurdle) give the yard an extremely strong hand. Others I'd consider are:
Another General - Unbeaten in all four starts who was particularly impressive when winning at Newbury under a double penalty recently;
Datito - A former Irish pointer winner who couldn't have been more impressive when winning a Haydock bumper last season. Hasn't run since but would warrant consideration if he lined up;
Eternal Spring - Winner of his last start at Newbury and a creditable second to Polar Red on his seasonal reappearance;
Exodous (ARG) - Classy performer in Argentina. A winner of a Grade 2 event and placed in Grade 1 races. He could be anything;
Fireball McNamara - Not and obvious choice but has already surprised over course and distance this season at big odds. It wouldn't surprise me if he did the same here;
Follow Lammtarra - Formerly a useful handicapper on the flat who appears to have improved for going over obstacles. He is was an easy winner of both starts over hurdles;
Galileo (POL) - This former winner of the Polish St Leger impressed many onlookers when winning with plenty in hand at Kempton on his first in this country;
Irish Hussar - Created a favourable impression when winning his first race of hurdles last week at Newbury. Further improvement is required to figure but he is a horse that has always been held in the highest regard by connections;
Iverain - Unbeaten in both starts this season. Impressed when winning a Wincanton handicap hurdle recently. He could be better than his bare form suggests;
Keen Leader - A giant of a horse who is unbeaten under rules. Has not been troubled in winning so far and gives the impression he is capable of significant improvement if necessary;
Jacklighte Bellevue - Not an obvious contender, however, this winning ex-French recruit is likely to be suited by the strong pace;
The Bajan Bandit - He could do no more than win all his starts this season, however, he hasn't been asked anywhere near a serious a question as he is certain to be asked in this event. Looks may be deceiving though, as he is a resolute galloper who grinds the opposition into submission. He did this to good effect in championship bumpers last season - there wouldn't be a reason why he could not do this over obstacles (coughing in the yard is a major worry);
Rouble - Rouble is a decent novice, and victories at Ascot in November, and in the Winter Novices' Hurdle (Gr. 2) at Sandown in December 2001, suggest that he could run well in one of the novices hurdles. He took advantage of the misguided attempt to Jair du Cochet around the tight turns of Fontwell Park last time out, but that form is still along way behind what is required here, besides his future lies over fences;
Too Forward - Given an excellent ride when winning at Doncaster last time out. This giant chestnut gelding has a high cruising speed and should be suited by the strong pace...potentially and interesting outsider.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Almost impossible race to call at this stage and a you'll be better placed to make a judgement of who'll win this than me. The ground as stated before is also likely to play its part in the outcome and I would have reservations about backing a mudlark unless there is an appreciable change in circumstances. At this stage I would be interested in the following if they were amongst the final declarations:
Classified
Samon
Tarxien
Galileo
Irish Hussar
Pietro Vannucci
Over The Bar
Ballyhampshire Boy
Direct Bearing
Sacundai
Keen Leader
Rouble
The Bajan Bandit
I really like Keen Leader, however, I must dismiss him solely because he has raced on virtually
un raceable ground on all his starts thus far, and if he were mine there's no way I would risk him on anything resembling fast
ground (The same applies to The Bajan Bandit). I'm fairly certain too that Martin Pipe's trio of runners (Classified, Samon and Tarxien) all acquit themselves well here. Whilst Classified and Tarxien have the form in the book, I'd be more interested in Samon's undoubted potential. If you ignore his last effort over Christmas, Ballyhampshire Boy must come into the equation. The trip and the ground should not inconvenience him and at this advanced stage you could do a lot worse than him. Samon is rewarded with the second option whilst it wouldn't surprise me totally if Yeoman's Point didn't run well. Hopefully, he is one of those unsupported
J.P. Macmanus horses which may help him go off at a decent price.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Ballyhampshire Boy
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Samon (GER)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Yeomans Point (e/w)
¦ 3° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
3:15 Coral Eurobet Cup Showcase H'cap (Hurdle) (Gr.3)
Class A, 3.15pm, Wednesday, March 13, 2002, five-year-olds and upwards, 2m 5f, £70,000 total prize fund. Penalties: after February 23, a winner of a Class A to C hurdle race 7lb. Entries closed Wednesday, February 13, 2002 (115 Entries), entries released Monday, February 18, weights released Wednesday, February 27.
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Ah!!! ...... .... My favourite race of the festival, mainly because I have a good record in the race. One hundred and fifteen horses were entered for the race, twenty-eight of which could represent the Emerald Isle, whilst two could represent France. Here are the horses that I've singled out for consideration:
Magnus (FR) (12st 0lbs) - Martin Pipe set the handicapper a real poser by entering this talented individual which has resulted in a an even more confusing puzzle to solve. For reasons best known to him (I presume it was to entice Magnus to run) the handicapper chose in his infinite wisdom to drop Magnus by 4lbs so that he could get him into the race as top weight. His presence already will restrict the amount of horses that will get into the handicap proper. Surely therefore Magnus didn't need a 4lbs enticement? I can't believe this horse will race here - I mean if you had a horse rated the equivalent of Barracuda why on earth would you race here and not against him? I'll list him in case connections disagree with me but I don't expect him to run which surely means that horses lower in the handicap are at a disadvantage worth bearing in mind.
Copeland (11st 11lbs) - Appears to have been vastly improved by having the "snip" and his impressive wins at Cheltenham and in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury advertise how near to the top rung he now is. He also has the advantage given to Magnus as he will benefit from the possible compressed handicap (assuming of course that he runs).
Brother Joe (11st 4lbs) - Recent form lines with It Takes Time and Hors La Loi III would give him a respectable chance in one of the championship races. He wouldn't be badly in if Magnus and Copeland run, however, could be in trouble if he had to carry top weight.
Telemoss (11st 1lb) - Stepped-up on previous good efforts in handicap company to chase home Jair De Cochet in a conditions event last time at Haydock. Again, could benefit if the top two stay in - less attractive if he had to carry top weight.
Stormez (FR) (10st 12lbs) - Finally given the opportunity to demonstrate some of the promise shown in France (including beating Bilboa at Enghien-Soisy) when stepped up to three miles last time out. Like those above him, would benefit if the top two stayed in the race - a big ask for a novice to concede weight in a valuable handicap if they don't.
Rooster Booster (10st 12lbs) - Repeatedly the bridesmaid. Can he be the bride? Always likely to run a good race but equally as likely to find one too good. Difficult to leave out though.
Prince Of Tara (10st 6lbs) - Comes here boasting decent form in Ireland. Most recently when making Bannow Bay pull out all the stops at Navan. Has a lovely weight if the top weights stay in.
Kings Castle (10st 4lbs) - Has two ways of operating - can run atrociously when off-colour but is decent when on-song. Your guess is as good as mine as to which version will turn up on the day.
Havre De Thaix (FR) (10st 4lbs) - Cyriaque Diard's useful French handicapper should be considered when it is likely that so few will get into the handicap proper.
Sir Talbot (10st 4lbs) - Lost his way of late, however, was in the process of running his best race for a long time when falling two-out in the race won by Barracuda at Kempton last month. Was at one time considered to be Champion Hurdle class so could be very interesting off of this featherweight.
Calladine (10st 3lbs) - Useful handicapper in Ireland. Probably has been laid out for this race.....one to note in the market exchanges.
Stromness (USA) (10st 3lbs) - Decent novice this season who just falls below the top flight. Ran well behind Rouble at Fontwell (finishing in front of Jair De Cochet) and has to be respected.
Tarxien (10st 3lbs) - For a horse that has one graded events this season in novice company, Tarxien on face value appears to have a very attractive weight, assuming stable mates contract the handicap. This is a slightly different "ask" than those set so far this season but should be considered if allowed to take his chance. Faster ground would be a further boost.
The Gatherer (10st 3lbs) - Arthur Moore's eight-year-old has always been a talking horse and on his best can look very useful. Tends to always find one too good for him when up against the best, however, must have a chance at these weights.
Golden Alpha (10st 2lbs) - Another Martin Pipe possible. Formerly a useful bumper horse that is slowly getting the hang of jumping obstacles. Not badly treated and worth a second consideration.
Fait Le Jojo (FR) (10st 2lbs) - Not yet a winner this season but placed in some of the best handicap hurdles run thus far. Could be interesting if he proves he stays this trip.
Image De Marque II (FR) (10st 1lb) - Possibly one of the most improved horses this season, going from woefully poor performances during the early season to one of the easiest wins in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham's open meeting. Her improvement has levelled off of late, however is difficult to overlook off of this featherweight.
Masalarian (10st 1lb) - A bridle horse who on his day can look really good, however, doesn't always find as much as expected when asked for an effort. Has been campaigned over fences this season and hasn't disgraced himself. Could be interesting if he stayed this trip.
Darapour (10st 0lbs) - Istabraq's working companion. Can be extremely frustrating as he is another that doesn't always give you 100% at the business end of the race. He has though run well at the meeting so is worthy of further consideration.
Babar Papa (10st 0lbs) - Another who may have been laid out for this race. This former useful stayer on the flat is one to watch in the market.
Farmer Jack (9st 13lbs) - Another bridle horse, for who exaggerated tactics will see him to best advantage. Soundly beaten at Ascot last time by the winner who is also entered here...a possible but not much more than that.
Ideal De Bois Beury (FR) (9st 13lbs) - Improving six-year-old who seems to be coming to hand just at the right time, as he illustrated when winning at Ascot last month. Has the right profile for the race, as recent winners tend to be improving novices and a must for any shortlist.
Joss Naylor (9st 12lbs) - Boasts exactly the same credentials as the previous list member though his ability to stay further may give him a slight edge.
Eternal Spring (9st 10lbs) - Formerly useful on the flat, Eternal Spring is finally putting that ability to good use over obstacles. A solid second to Polar Red on his reappearance, he went one better in a decent novice event at Newbury. Could go well if he stays this trip.
Golden Rambler (9st 10lbs) - Has looked very good in winning his last two starts. Jonjo O'Neill could be setting punters a difficult poser if he asks this horse to line up against stablemate Joss Naylor.
Yeoman's Point (9st 10lbs) - Another decent horse on the comeback trail. Having acquitted himself well after a year off through injury. But for Magnus's presence, he may have been on the ten-stone mark and as a result looks particularly appealing...another horse to note for support in the market.
Iris Royal (9st 9lbs) - Another potential improver who won cosily last time out. Possibly needs to improve a little more to be good enough here but may not be too far away.
First Ballot (9st 8lbs) - Talked up earlier in the season as a possible Champion Hurdle candidate. Has yet to fulfill that potential, however, could make a bold bid here.
Laveron (9st 5lbs) - Francois Doumen's ex-German entire has yet to get his head in front over hurdles, however, this may be because he's always doing too much during his races where he runs particularly freely and might be better suited to a race like this where his pilot can bury him in the ruck and try and produce him later. Shouldn't be good enough, then again it wouldn't entirely surprise me if he nicked a place by doing just that.
Hard To Start (9st 4lbs) - Lives up to his name a bit, as he can be very lazy during his races. A pair of blinkers worked the oracle last time. Would they work again?
Farinel (8st 13lbs) - Needs several of the top weights to come out of the race to have a realistic chance, however, has shown enough in France to suggest he is worth considering should that occur.
Xenophon (8st 12lbs) - Another who is too far out of the handicap to be seriously considered, however he was an winner last time so the fact that the connections have bothered to enter him is surely and indication that he should be considered if there was a significant weight rise.
Cesaria (FR) (8st 11lbs) - Was one of the easiest winners of the season when running away with a Leicester novice hurdle and is better than her disappointing run in victory last time at Plumpton. Her low handicap mark negates and realistic chance she has unless there is a significant rise in the weights.
¦ VERDICT ¦: ¬>
Incredibly difficult race to call which is being affected by the presence of Magnus and Copeland in the lineup. Frankly both of these would hold their own in any of the championship races therefore I am a little bemused at their presence here and there is a possibility of a significant rise in the weights as (as is conceivable) all of the top six runners came out of this affair. There is no doubt that Martin Pipe holds the key to this race. To my way of thinking, either he strongly fancies Magnus or Stormez here, or one of these will be used to aid the chances of other runners lower down in the handicap. I have a lot of time for Stormez and Ideal De Bois Beury and should Magnus be sacrificed (a complete waste) these two would be the most likely of their runners to capitalise. A significant rise in the weights would suit Farinel and, to a lesser extent, Yeoman's Point, whilst Sir Talbot could go well at a nice price.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦: ¬>Ideal De Bois Beury (if absent: Stormez)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦: ¬>Yeoman's Point (if absent: Farinel)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦: ¬>Sir Talbot (e/w)
¦ 4° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
3:55 Royal & SunAlliance Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
Class A, Grade 1, 3.55pm, Wednesday March 13, 2002, total value £125,000, three miles and about one furlong, for five-year-olds and upwards. Weights: 5-y-o: 10st 8lb, 6-y-o and up: 11st 4lb: mares allowance 5lb. Entries closed January 16, 2002 (82 entries), entries released, Monday, January 21, forfeit stage February 19. Five-day confirmation stage Friday, March 8, overnight declaration stage Tuesday, March 12. (Form correct up to Friday, January 18, 2002).
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>In contrast to the interest shown in many of the other championship races, the Royal and SunAlliance Chase appears to have failed to capture the public's imagination. Not sure why this is the case as there are amongst the line-up horses with the potential to make their presence felt against their seniors next season. The current favourite is Guillame Macaire's five-year-old Japhet who won ten races in his first season of training last season including the Prix Maurice Gillois Grand Steeple-Chase des 4 ans (Grade 1). Unbeaten records are nice, however it is worth pointing out how difficult it is to be campaigned in two countries especially when being at your peak occurs a differing periods of the year (something that is overlooked by pundits)
The timing of the Sun Alliance Chase and possible future targets in France during the early part of next season isn't great, therefore to gain experience for Cheltenham, Japhet had to run effectively out of season. To go to Cheltenham, Japhet has had to again experience of British obstacles...nothing else mattered although he showed a glimpse of what he was capable of - his jump at Newbury on his British debut was awesome. He failed to impress some who clearly expected fireworks from this French superstar. They may have been even more disappointed by the negativity shown by jockey Benoit Gicquel in the Newbury race (which arguably he lost) and at Kempton more recently where he only asked the horse to race up the final straight...so much so that their interest became more
centered on stablemate Heros Collonges who had impressed when winning on his only start in this country. Guillame Macaire, whilst praising Heros Collonges has made no secret on how good he believed Japhet could be and now that the objective has been reached, Japhet will go to Cheltenham with an outstanding chance. There are many though who believe he isn't up to the task and instead are looking amongst the other entrants for possible clues. Having sifted through the mire I came up with the following possibles:
Colonel Braxton - Former top-class novice hurdler who has been given a light campaign this season. Unfortunately brought down on his chasing debut he did really well to finish a highly creditable second to Give Over in a Grade 3 novices chase at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. He has since outbattled Youlneverwalkalone in a similar event at Navan. He always has had the make and shape of chaser and is a horse I hold in the utmost respect... so should you.
Harbour Pilot - A winner of three of his four starts this season, Harbour Pilot was very impressive in beating Truckers Tavern and Youlneverwalkalone on his most recent start on AIG Champion Hurdle day. Who knows...bar for some bad jumping errors, this Grade 1 winning chaser could have been still unbeaten. Serious claims.
Youlneverwalkalone - another talented hurdler cum novice chaser who certainly has the ability to take this but will always be something of a risky proposition if he continues to produce as little over fences once asked for an effort as he did over hurdles. His most recent defeat by Colonel Braxton is the third time this season he has appeared on the scene, travelling best only to find little off the bridle.
Innox - Francois Doumen has taken a slightly more aggressive course of action with Innox. Having won the Prix Mandarin Handicap Chase at Auteuil in September, Innox was upped in grade. Innox fell when put into graded company. Back in Novice Company, he has shown steady improvement initially finishing third behind Katarino at Newbury before finishing second to Maximise in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase. He completed his preparation when winning cosily at Warwick at the beginning of last month. This underrated six-year-old is certain to give a good account of himself.
Jimmy Tennis - Humbled by Japhet in France, however, pleased many onlookers when winning the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last month. Could well have improved since coming to this country.
Maximise - Former eventer has been most progressive winning last season between the flags before winning under rules most recently in the Feltham chase on Boxing Day. That performance won this slick jumper many friends, however, as much as I do like this individual I am reminded of how easily Le Cabro D'Or disposed of him at Uttoxeter the time before last...I can't help thinking that that could happen again.
Europa - Tom Tate has a high opinion of this six-year-old gelding who has always threatened to be a useful individual. He has looked like that on occasions, however, is beatable as was the case when beaten fair and square by Thosewerethedays at Kempton last time.
Chives - Appeared to be beaten fair and square by Innox last time out at Warwick, however, this big gelding has plenty of scope for further improvement and carries stable confidence even if he is their second string.
Truckers Tavern - a winner of three Irish point-to-points (who is the apple of his trainer's eye and appears to be going the right way) who lost nothing when tasting defeat for the first time at Leopardstown last time out behind Harbour Pilot.
Gola Sher - Useful novice who is going the right way. Likely to be suited by the strong pace here...his lack of experience/greenness is a bit of a worry.
Carryonharry - Progressive novice chaser unbeaten over obstacles, most recently when outstaying his rivals at Exeter. Would need to improve to figure but has been given every opportunity to do so.
Valley Henry - Looked promising when winning earlier in the season at Chepstow and Newbury, however, let down by his jumping twice at Kempton. Confidence should have been restored when putting in a good round of jumping when beaten for speed by Iznogoud last time at Ascot and is entitled to consideration on his early-season form.
Frosty Canyon - Frosty Canyon has always had ability but hasn't always been inclined to show it. A set of blinkers appears to have worked the oracle and he has been far more amenable of late, most recently when capitalising on Benoit Guiquel's conservatism when beating Japhet at Newbury last time out. He did well to score that day having lost his pitch when Japhet made what seemed to be a decisive move with a mile to go. Could be vulnerable in a race run strongly end-to-end.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
This surely comes down to a couple as surely the winner will come from the following candidates:
Japhet (FR)
Colonel Braxton
Harbour Pilot
Jimmy Tennis (FR)
Frosty Canyon
Carryonharry
Maximise
Valley Henry
Innox (FR)
Maximise's Kempton form looks solid and I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself, however, he may not possess the class of the foreign challengers. Colonel Braxton, Harbour Pilot and Japhet all boast Grade 1 form in their respective countries and this edge may prove to be decisive. As mentioned before, the key to the race surely is how aggressive Japhet is ridden in this event because I remain convinced that the horse that pulverised his opposition in France is more than capable of beating the lineup here. I don't think the most telling side of his character - the ability to sustain a strong gallop has been displayed over here and I genuinely only believe he has the Irish challengers to worry about.
Japhet has just turned five; he was trying three miles for the first time, and was one of several horses that had been unwell in the stable. Although he ran a few pounds wrong weight for age with the winner, it was still a sound effort (run in not a bad time in comparison with Bacchanal's later in the day).
Guillaume Macaire was straight with us about him this season.... He says the horse can improve - I have no doubt that he can, especially if he's ridden with more aggression, (as he was over fences last year in France).
As we've talked him up, I'll remain loyal to the end and make him the selection....
"Allez Japhet,
Allez!!"
Colonel Braxton will capitalise on any jumping errors whilst Innox is another French raider who has been prepared with this race in mind. It wouldn't surprise me if he reversed Kempton form with Maximise and he appears to be the best each-way option.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Japhet (FR)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Colonel Braxton
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Innox (FR), (e/w)
¦ 5° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
4:30 131st Year of The National Hunt Steeple Ch. Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders)
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>A recent change in the conditions of this race has opened it up to any horse that hadn't won a chase before the end of last season, which naturally has resulted in a much better type of horse being eligible. I dare say some of the trainers who missed this rule change will rue an opportunity missed. Amongst those who caught my eye were:
Carry On Harry - Unbeaten so far this season. This useful handicap hurdler will be hard to beat if he stays the trip.
Manx Magic - Martin Pipe clearly is aware of the rule changes as he has given himself the option of running this useful novice (last seen finishing in 5th behind Valley Henry at Newbury last year) here, instead of against the best novices in the Royal and SunAlliance Chase.
Majed (FR) - Untried over British fences (raced over them in France), Majed boasts decent handicap form over hurdles this season and would have to be feared if he lines up here.
Oa Baldixe (FR) - Noel Meade is another who has read the conditions as he has taken up the of option of entering this former group winner on the flat here instead of against the cream of the division.
Timbera - Unbeaten in his last 4 starts in Ireland
Takagi - Had the pace to win over 2 1/2 miles but will relish this marathon trip.
Native Buck - Honest novice who's won three of his last 4 starts, he will relish this extended trip, however does he possess the necessary class?
Fasgo - Going the right way over fences, as demonstrated when winning last time out at Sandown. Should relish the trip and may surprise some of the better quality horses.
Le Cabro D'Or - Relentless front-runner who, if he gets into a rhythm will set this field a merry dance. Destroyed Maximise (leading fancy for the SunAlliance Chase) when winning at Uttoxeter earlier in the season and shouldn't be underestimated.
No Discount - Formerly decent over hurdles, Ted Walsh's runner hasn't yet transferred that ability to the larger obstacles, however does give the impression that he'd appreciate a distance of ground over fences.
Rith Dubh - A thinker - clearly blessed with ability, however, has on more than one occasion this season declined to show it when asked when in with a winning chance. Finally was gifted a race at Leicester two runs ago (no matter how much he tried, he was always going quicker than his rivals). Showed the better side of his nature when a respectable second to Japhet at Kempton last time. Potentially interesting as he may like the tempo of this race. What he'll do if he is in with a winning chance, nobody knows.
Ballyconnell - Unraced under regulation fences, but is a winner twice in Irish Point-To-Points.
Suntas - Out-and-out stayer guaranteed to get the trip but may lack the necessary class.
Black Optimist - High promising second on his debut over regulation fences, Black Optimist is another winner between the flags who is capable of giving a good account of himself.
Mister Bigtime - Another out-and-out stayer who has been placed in his last four starts. Should relish the trip but might find one or two too good again today.
Idalgo De Guye (FR) - Very disappointing last time out at Wetherby. However, looked very promising when winning hard-held at Ayr the time before that. This promising six-year-old should be suited by the likely strong pace and could be staying on stoutly at the business end of this affair.
Mini Sensation - Looked very promising when winning his first two starts over fences, however, he struggled when placed in handicap company finding it most difficult to lay up with the early paces of those races. This extended trip should be more to his liking.
Silver Steel - Not far behind Ireland's best novice chasers, Silver Steel may be interesting if you believe he will stay this marathon trip.
Phar From A Fiddle - Not certain he'd stay this extended trip, however, this promising six-year-old looked good when taking two prizes earlier in the season.
Lanmire Tower - Has taken well to fences on two occasions most recently at Ludlow, however has a mind of his own as demonstrated the time before when throwing the dummy out of the pram at Doncaster. May need matters to go his own way.
Jurancon II - Very difficult to gauge as he has yet to jump a fence in public. However, it is interesting that Martin Pipe has entered this five-year-old especially as he will be eligible for a significant weight allowance.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Not sure which way to go here ... should I go with the horse guaranteed to stay but lacking in class, or do
I go with the horses blessed with ability but not certain to stay? I'd be inclined to do the latter and would narrow it down to the following runners:
Carryonharry
Fasgo
Ballyconnell
Majed (FR)
Timbera
Takagi
Oa Baldixe (FR)
Silver Steel
Idalgo De Guye
La Cabro D'Or
Grand National possible Majed (who boasts useful form in French chases) makes most appeal. His rating over hurdles (if translated to fences) would give him outstanding claims here especially as he gets weight from his rivals. I am though despite this a little hesitant to select him mainly because you would really ideally liked to have seen him run over fences beforehand. I will therefore pass him over in favour of Oa Baldixe. This former group winner on the flat has taken a while to get the hang of chasing...he is careful, rather than spectacular and that's maybe what you need for this particular discipline. A recent easy win will no doubt have boosted his confidence as well. I am keen on the Irish representatives and it would not surprise me if Ballyconnell, Takagi or Timbera ran well here. Any one of these could go well at each-way odds. The most interesting of these is Ballyconnell (from Dermot Weld's yard)- any market support for him could be significant.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Oa Baldixe (FR)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Majed (FR)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Ballyconnell (e/w)
¦ 6° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
5:05 51st Year of The Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup H'cap Steeple Ch.
Class A, Listed, 5.05pm, Wednesday, March 13, 2002, £70,000 total prize fund, two miles and about four furlongs, five-year-olds and upwards. Penalties: after February 23, a winner of a class C chase 3lb, of a class A or B chase, 6lb. Entries closed February 13 (85 entries), weights released February 27, five-day confirmation stage March 8, final declaration stage 10.15am, March 12. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys may not include some overseas runs and are correct up to Tuesday, February 26, 2002.
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Eighty-five runners were entered for the Mildmay Of Flete Challenge Cup, nineteen of which are trained in Ireland. This race and the Grand Annual Chase tomorrow tend to be won by improver handicappers/novice chasers so when picking out our possibles we had that thought paramount in our mind.
Folly Pleasant (FR) (11st 12lbs) - Three runs, two victories - his only defeat coming at the hands of Shooting Light in the Thomas Pink Chase. Appears to have improved significantly this season and would still make these go despite his welter burden.
Lady Cricket (FR) (11st 10lbs) - Tasted defeat at the hands of Folly Pleasant on her reappearance at Cheltenham - She followed that effort up with a ridiculously easy win over two miles at Newbury. This is her only entry at the festival so it is fair to presume that if she runs a bold bid is expected.
Banker Count (11st 5lbs) - Improved significantly this season to win twice and has creditably in defeat most recently behind Tresor De Mai at Ascot last month. Possesses a high cruising speed, which should assist him in this event and is typically strongly run.
David's Lad (11st 2lbs) - Although he is the winner of the Irish Grand National, David's Lad possesses plenty of pace (and is a course and distance winner) . Certainly worth considering if he takes up this opportunity.
Ikrenel Royal (FR) (10st 11lbs) - Difficult to evaluate having had only one run in this country, though he couldn't have been any more impressive. Has to be respected if he lines up.
Royal Auclair (FR) (10st 10lbs) - Made slightly heavy weather of winning last time over course and distance, however, is possibly best judged on his first effort where he fell when twenty-five lengths clear of a decent field on his chasing bow. Has a similar profile to Majadou who won this race so has to be respected if allowed to take his opportunity.
Grimes (10st 9lbs) - One of the easiest winners of the Galway plate there probably ever has been. Hasn't run too badly recently and could be interesting if allowed to take his chance.
Alcapone (10st 9lbs) - Although he hasn't won this season, this former useful novice has a respectable weight and hails from a stable in top-class form.
Grey Shot (10st 9lbs) - Formerly a decent hurdler. Had taken well to chasing, however two recent falls are a worry. Deserves respect if he lines up.
Hescondido (FR) (10st 9lbs) - Slightly disappointing last time, however, a very impressive winner of his previous two races. Possesses a powerful jump, which he can use to his advantage when given the opportunity. Needs to improve, however, that isn't out of the question.
Ilnamar (FR) (10st 8lbs) - Disappointing in his last two starts, however, wouldn't be the last French-bred to finally get the hang of matters from Nicholashayne.
Siberian Gale (10st 3lbs) - May have "bounced" after a promising second to Shooting Light at Ascot. Deserves a better chance.
Bounce Back (USA) (10st 2lbs) - Former decent hurdler in France. Hasn't quite made the impact expected by connections, however, his form figures over hurdles suggested that that was always likely. Has too much intelligence for the game, which will mean he'll always find one or two too good for him. However, his form over hurdles entitles him to close inspection off of this lightweight.
Europa (10st 2lbs) - Tom Tate has a high opinion of this six year old gelding who has always threatened to be a useful individual. He has looked like that on occasions, however, is beatable as was the case when beaten fair and square by Thosewerethedays at Kempton last time. Nicely treated here if he can take advantage.
Ross Moff (10st 1lb) - Former decent novice has yet to make an appearance this season. Amongst the best of Ireland's novices last season so deserves respect off of this weight if he makes the line-up.
King On The Run (10st 0lbs) - Not much mileage on the clock, however, there is nothing wrong with the engine when on song. Tends to go well fresh so it is interesting that he has been given plenty of time between this race and his first-time-out victory at Kempton.
Mr Baxter Basics (9st 13lbs) - Ran creditably to a point in the Racing Post Chase last time and may have not truly seen out the trip. A strongly run race at this distance may be ideal.
Michael Mor (9st 12lbs) - Winner of two of his races this season over fences, however, fell short when upped in grade. Entitled to consideration off of this lightweight.
Tango Royal (FR) (9st 11lbs) - Has so far failed to translate his decent chase form in this country - in fact has been very disappointing. That form though was over hurdles and if he ran well before this event could take advantage of this potentially lenient mark.
L'Epicurien (FR) (9st 10lbs) - Developed into a useful handicapper over hurdles last season, however, isn't quite at that level over fences, though he ran on strongly to win at Kempton last time out. There possibly is more to come, however, Nicholashayne have better possibles than him.
Jour J (FR) (9st 9lbs) - When producing our ante-post feature, I mentioned him as a horse to look out for. He still interests me as he is only just outside the handicap at the moment. He beat himself last time at Fontwell where he raced far to freely in bottomless conditions. I am convinced he is better than that (especially as this big gelding still has plenty of strengthening-up to do). He could be very interesting still if he gets into the handicap.
Historg (FR) (9st 8lbs) - I'd be surprised if he ran here as Ferdy Murphy appears to be taking a long term view with this useful recruit to chasing. He stuck on bravely to win at Haydock last time, however, might be a little too novicey for this competitive affair.
Duchamp (USA) (9st 6lbs) - Has shown useful form over fences this season and is still worth consideration despite being soundly beaten by Heros Collonges at Kempton last time.
¦ VERDICT ¦: ¬>
Foly Pleasant and Lady Cricket's presence could scare several of their rivals off here and it would not surprise me if these two didn't figure prominently in this affair. I am though attracted to some of Martin Pipe's entries here and as things currently stand, Royal Auclair, Bounced Back and L'Epicurien as well as Tom Tate's gelding Europa. Europa and Royal Auclair make particular appeal as arguably both aren't far short of the better novices at this distance. It wouldn't surprise me if one of them were to take this. As much as I respect Royal Auclair, the fact remains that he is being asked to concede over a stone to Europa (taking into account weight for age) and that may be too tall an order. As far as an each-way bet goes, Lady Cricket and Folly Pleasant could be interesting if punters desert the top-weights, whilst it wouldn't surprise me if Its Time For A Win, L'Epicurien or Tango Royal didn't run well at each-way odds.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦: ¬>Europa
¦ 2nd Choice ¦: ¬>Royal Auclair (FR)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦: ¬>Tango Royal (FR), (e/w)
¦ 7° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
5:40 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Gr.1)
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¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Not certain that this race is as straightforward as some would have you believe. There is a popular view that this will fall to either Alexander Millenium; impressive winner of his only start at Leopardstown in December, who hasn't raced since, or Rhinestone Cowboy; equally as impressive when winning his only start at Ascot. In that event, he cruised to the front inside the last two furlongs before quickening away to beat Calling Brave (who opposes again) and Rosarian easily. This race is never that straightforward, and here a some others worth a secondary glance;
Alvino - an easy winner of both starts so far at Ludlow and ascot
Back In Front - Not see out since winning over course and distance in November
Bonus Trix - Met trouble in running when well-supported on his debut at Wincanton, however he made no mistake next time out at Bangor
Beechcourt, - winner of his first two starts by impressive wide-margin, was subsequently well beaten behind Ar Muin Na Muice, and Kickham at Leopardstown last time out
Inca Trail - Best Mate's full brother could do no more than win his only start at Naas with ease. The second
Jenniferjo, has since come out and franked the form
Iris's Gift - This big grey is unbeaten in all three starts
Kickham - Two wins from three isn't a bad record to boast going into this race, and he lost nothing in defeat when trying to concede 8lbs to Ar Muin Na Muice at Leopardstown last time out
Kicking King - A five lengths winner on his debut at Leopardstown in January. He lost nothing in defeat when failing to concede 14lbs to Ardmayle King at the same venue next time out
Supreme Developer - Could do no more that beat Shawings by 8length on his only start (and is likely to be the mount of A P McCoy
The Galway Man - Impressive winner of his only start at Leopardstown, however is at present unlikely to line up here
Thisthatandtother - a creditable second to Alvino on his debut, Thisthatandtother couldn't have been more impressive when winning at Wincanton on his next week
Atum Re - Impressed when winning on his racecourse debut, however, failed to handle conditions when finishing in mid-division at Newbury on his most recent start.
No Collusion - Looks Like Trouble's galloping companion could do no more than win at Newbury on his debut
Pizarro - Unbeaten so far in two runs at Fairyhouse and Naas
¦ VERDICT ¦: ¬>
An incredibly difficult race to call and without knowing for certain what the likely makeup of this field would be, it is difficult to be confident about any of these. I totally respect the claims of Alexander Millenium and Rhinestone Cowboy, however, in my view Edward O'Grady has the strongest hand. You wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if his chosen runners from: Back in front, Inca Trail, Kickham and Pizarro didn't acquit themselves. I am a big fan of Kickham and should he run here, he would get my vote. However, I believe he didn't work well last week and as a result I'll cover this selection. However if he doesn't turn up then Pizarro (another horse who has been kept to this division for more than a season) would be the alternative. If you are looking for something else to back at double-figure odds, you could do a lot worse than recent Wincanton winner Thisthatandtother and Supreme Developer for whom connections are trying to obtain the services of
A.P. McCoy.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦: ¬>Kickham (if absent: Pizarro)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦: ¬>Supreme Developer
¦ 3rd Choice ¦: ¬>Thisthatandtother
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