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Analysis & Selections by
t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦".
We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option "
¦2nd CHOICE¦ " as any runners who could run well at eachway
odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP"
& "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.
CHELTENHAM NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL 2002
Wednesday 13th March, 2002
¦ 2° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
2:35 Queen Mother Champion Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
total prize fund £220,000 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 13, 2002, 2m. for 5yo & upwards. weights: 5yo 11st 9lb; 6yo & upwards 12st. allowances: mares 5lb. entries closed January 2, entries released January 7 (32 entries), forfeit stage February 19, five-day confirmations march 8, overnight stage, 10.15am march 12.
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>Exit
Swinger (FR), Ilnamar, & Ichi Beau
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬> The 2002 renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase has attracted an entry of 32. Twenty-two entries stood their ground at the first forfeit stage, all of them seeking to join the race's roll of top class winners, which include Badsworth Boy (1983-85) who was the only three-time winner. Other winners are Fortria (1960 and 1961), Drinny's Double (1967 and 1968), Royal Relief (1972 and 1974), Skymas (1976 and 1977), Hilly Way (1978 and 1979), Pearlyman (1987 and 1988), Barnbrook Again (1989 and 1990), Viking Flagship (1994 and 1995), and One Man (1999). Here are my thoughts on those who have stood their ground or those still left in:
Alcapone - An eight-year-old, trained by Mouse Morris.
Alcapone is a useful chaser on his day as he proved when winning the Swordlestown Cup Novices Chase at Fairyhouse last April (Grade 1). However, his limitations have been exposed in each of his starts this term and the likelihood of a soft surface seems to be the only reason why Alcapone (IRE) will get his name in the record books unlike his famous French namesake.
Cenkos (Fr) - An eight-year-old trained by Paul Nicholls.
Cenkos has always threatened to be a decent animal but has failed repeatedly at the highest level when asked. Movement from Oliver Sherwood's training establishment was a mistake as history has shown that it is the horse and not his former trainer who has been found wanting. As he is a spring horse, the Queen Mother Champion Chase will always be a race where he may excel, however, there is little to recommend him on the track and I would have to pass him over on this occasion.
Commanche Court- A nine-year-old trained by Ted Walsh.
Having scored at the 1997 Cheltenham Festival (when triumphant in the JCB Triumph Hurdle), I wouldn't have any reservations about this horse on the course, however, Commanche Court has established himself as one of the best staying chasers in Ireland with victories in the 2000 versions of the Irish Grand National and Heineken Gold Cup. As useful as he is, one must question the wisdom of racing him over the minimum trip, even though this race will be run in a manner that will play to his strengths. Conditions on the day will determine the appropriate level of support for him.
Desert Mountain - A nine-year-old trained by Paul Nicholls.
If anyone saw how Desert Mountain lorded it over his rivals in the Emblem Chase at Kempton recently you might be tempted to look at him as a lively outsider. That might be feasible, however this is not a straightforward character, who could have just as easily have thrown the dummy out of the pram if he had so desired. As the race will be run to suit, it's fair to say that he could run creditably. I'll leave it to you to determine whether the risk is acceptable.
Edredon Bleu (Fr) - A ten-year-old trained by Henrietta Knight.
"The reigning champion". It's fair to say that should he take this race for the second time he'll bring the house down. It's easy to see why dismissing the notion that French breds don't last, Edredon Bleu has grown in our affection over the last five seasons. On top of that, we all love horses that clearly give you everything ,which is exactly what he did when landing this prize in 2000. He comes here on the back of his usual preparation, a win in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon and an honourable run in the Tingle Creek Chase. You can be certain that he will jump from the tape and attempt to break his rival's spirits. Will that be enough on the day?
Eskleybrook - A nine-year-old, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies.
An honest front-running handicapper who was in decent form last term, however, hasn't reproduced that this season and gave likely jockey Carl Llewellyn one of the worst falls this season over the course in January. An out of form horse from a stable struggling to recapture form...that fairly sums up the likelihood of him winning here.
Exit Swinger (Fr) - A seven-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe.
The form book wouldn't immediately suggest Exit Swinger has a live chance here, however, anybody who saw him cruise home under 12 stone on Hennessey day at Newbury can see why he could surprise. He has always travelled well in his races and has the advantage of revelling when the ground is as soft as is likely at present. Whilst a victory is possibly taking this point too far, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he made his presence felt.
Fadalko (Fr) - A nine-year-old trained by Paul Nicholls.
Fadalko in many ways has a similar profile to Cenkos in so far as he regularly disappoints during the first half of the season. The similarities end there as unlike his stable companion Fadalko has demonstrated that he can operate at this level and has proven over the last three seasons that he has vastly improved as winter becomes spring. Whilst his form earlier in the season gives him no chance, a reproduction of his best spring form will ensure that at worst, he isn't far from finishing in the frame.
Flagship Uberalles - An eight year-old trained by Philip Hobbs (DOUBLE CHECK).
Despite winning the last three renewals of the Tingle Creek, Flagship Uberalles is difficult to evaluate. The rationale for this is how differently he performs in the second half of the season. To some extent, that might be due to the back problems, which are self-evident by his tail carriage, however there may be more to it than that. If this horse is in the same form that saw him easily defeat Edredon Bleu, Fadalko et al in the Tingle Creek Chase then he will be very hard to beat...the problem is that this is a very big "if".
Ichi Beau - An eight-year-old, trained by Ferdy Murphy.
An honest handicapper who will give Fiona Butterly a great day out, however, the fact that Desert Mountain beat him all ends up shows how difficult his chances will be come the big day.
Ilnamar (Fr) - A six-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe
As I am a big fan of this horse, I must profess to being very disappointed with what he's produced thus far since coming from France...actually that's unkind - there wasn't anything wrong with his first effort (a creditable fifth to stablemate Cyfor Malta on Hennessey Gold Cup day). It was his next two efforts at Ascot and Doncaster where his jumping deteriorated as did the bare level of form shown. As I am aware if the potential shown in France, I am prepared to give this six-year-old the benefit of the doubt at present, however, that isn't exactly a huge recommendation for him scoring here, is it?
Knife Edge (USA) - A seven-year-old, trained by Michael O'Brien.
Ireland's strongest contender for Queen Mother honours, Knife Edge has built on his seasonal debut where he was beaten by Killultagh Storm. Knife Edge won his next four starts including a smooth success in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown in December and a workmanlike display at Navan three weeks ago. He is difficult to evaluate with no real collateral evidence to weigh up, however, he has always shown decent levels of form on the racecourse in Ireland and I have no doubt that he will give a good account of himself in this race.
Latalomne (USA) - An eight-year-old, trained by Brian Ellison.
A vastly improved second-season chaser who was without doubt one of the most impressive winners in recent years over the distance when winning a handicap chase at the Open meeting in November. His limitations were exposed Flagship Uberalles in the Tingle Creak, however, he is likely to be still improving and therefore is one to keep on the right side of (especially if the ground is fast)
Native Upmanship - A nine-year-old, trained by Arthur Moore.
Any horse who comes into a race of this nature boasting a short-head second to Florida Pearl in the John Durkan Memorial Chase; a staying-on second to Foxchapel King in the Ericsson Chase would be entitled to be considered seriously in this race. I know that there are many shrewd judges who think that this horse was well worth a try in the Queen Mother before today. Edredon Bleu's front running exploits is likely to set this up for him and it'd be no surprise if he went close.
Nordance Prince - An eleven-year-old, trained by Venetia Williams.
Nordance Prince, formerly a useful handicapper who won the Victor Chandler chase at his best , however, he missed last season through injury and has failed to complete in his last three starts...."Next!"
Red Ark - A nine-year-old, trained by Norman Mason.
A useful handicapper whose connections have done well to hide his true light under a bushel. He goes on most surfaces and is one of the best jumpers in the line-up. The formbook suggests he isn't good enough...however nothing surprises me anymore and a good run from him certainly wouldn't.
Redemption - A seven-year-old, trained by Paul Webber.
Another handicapper trying his hand in graded company who may go well if everything went his way, however, defeats in handicap company before this race do not suggest he is capable of showing the required improvement here.
Rockforce - A ten-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls.
I wouldn't mind seeing this horse run well here as he has done well to have progressed from humble beginnings on the flat as a juvenile to just short of graded class over jumps. He missed last term due to injury and appeared to need the run when soundly beaten by Tresor De Mai at Ascot last month. I'm sure he may improve on that effort but needs to find extra to get competitive here.
Seek The Faith (USA) - A thirteen-year-old, trained by John O'Shea.
I hope owner Frank Matthews enjoys the day out.
Tiutchev - A nine-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson.
I must profess that at the time of writing I cannot remember whether he has actually been taken out of this race, however, having a bout of colic three weeks before a championship race is hardly the ideal preparation, is it? Getting the horse to the course will have been a major achievement in itself, never mind actually winning the prize. Whilst I thought he had serious claims before that unfortunate event, you'd have to question how much has his chance been
diminished.
Turgeonev (FR) - A seven-year-old, trained by Tim Easterby.
There are several shrewdies barking this horse's claims....I can see why as he was one of the most progressive handicappers of the first half of the season and couldn't have been more impressive when winning the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot in January. His last run is best ignored as is palpably failed to stay when tried over 2m5f here on his last start and will appreciate coming back in distance here. One of the more likely possibles in this line-up, especially if the ground remains on the soft side.
Wahiba Sands - A nine-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe.
Former useful hurdler Wahiba Sands has his first attempt in this championship race at nine years old and comes into the race having taken the notable scalp of Best Mate at Ascot in November. The fact that he is trained by the champion trainer will ensure he goes off at a short price, however, over fences Wahiba Sands seems best when receiving weight from "gooduns" rather than meeting them on level terms.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
It's amazing how little appears to have changed. I'm not sure it's particularly healthy for the 2000 protagonists to still be dominant here and it may be controversial to say so, I wouldn't mind if a new champion was crowned. As far as selections go, the one certainty here is that Edredon Bleu will attempt to make all and at the moment with the weather starting to change his way, he would appear to be a logical choice. He is beatable though and in my view that is more likely from a new foe rather than a member of the old fraternity. Tiutchev (amazingly considering how close he came to death recently), Native Upmanship, Knife Edge, Latalomne and Turgeonev will fit that description. Although he failed to stay 21/2 miles last time, Turgeonev's high cruising speed should ensure that he is able to hold his position, however, he has yet to demonstrate the level of ability that Native Upmanship has on the racecourse. It is very difficult to poke holes in his form and it wouldn't surprise me if he gave the "reigning champion" most to do. If you believe that Edredon Bleu has the best claim, then please follow your
conscience, however I think he might be worth taking on...with Native Upmanship.
Should he fail, I will contradict myself and suggest Tiutchev, mainly because I cannot believe that Nicky Henderson does not have this horse's best interests at heart and he wouldn't run him unless he was
100% certain that he could do himself justice, whilst the aforementioned Turgeonev and Exit Swinger appeal most to me as viable each-way alternatives.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Native Upmanship
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Tiutchev
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Exit Swinger ( e/w)
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