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Analysis & Selections by
t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦".
We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option "
¦2nd CHOICE¦ " as any runners who could run well at eachway
odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP"
& "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.
CHELTENHAM NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL
Tuesday 12th March, 2002
¦ 3° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
3:15 Smurfit Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Gr.1)
total prize fund £270,000, two miles and about half a furlong for four-year-old, and upwards.
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦: ¬> Liss A Paoraigh, Landing Light, Rodock (FR) & Azertyuiop (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Well, Istabraq's date with destiny finally comes around. Now ten years old, Aidan O'Brien's champion bids to become the first horse ever to win four Champion Hurdles and one of the few horses to win five races at the festival. Many believe he will have reached this feat last year were it not for the foot & mouth outbreak and its testimony to him that he manages to be ante-post favourite for the fourth year in succession. This looks on paper his toughest assignment to date. Here are my thoughts on him and the other runners, which may line up:
Ansar - A six year old trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland.
Formerly useful on the flat, Ansar has shown significant improvement this winter over hurdles and was extremely impressive when winning the handicap hurdle at the Galway festival. He also looked useful when taking the John James McManus Memorial Hurdle (Grade 2) in October. Both those efforts were on a faster surface and to be seriously entertained, he would need conditions to be on a par. A defeat at the hands of Limestone Lad in the Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse in December illustrates the point. If the mud flies, he'll have little chance. One to consider if it's fast
Azertyuiop (FR) - A five year old trained by Paul Nicholls.
An enigma, looked potentially useful when winning at Wincanton earlier in the season, however, this embryonic chaser has failed to build on that effort finishing a well-beaten last in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December as well as occupying a similar position behind Hors La Loi III at Wincanton last week. He could go well at a big price, however, I suspect there are one or two better propositions in this line-up...besides; his future lies over fences where I am certain he will excel.
Bilboa (FR) - A five-year-old trained by Francois Doumen.
Bilboa is another difficult horse to evaluate in this field, as I have no doubt she has been laid out with purely the Champion Hurdle in mind so it's difficult to know exactly how to treat the actual value of her form. She certainly deserves more respect than she probably currently receives if you consider that she was only 6 3/4 lengths behind Landing Light in the Grade 1 Championship Hurdle at Sandown in April 2001. A creditable effort, considering she had only recently sluiced home at Aintree a few weeks before - very few horses came back to run anywhere near their best after that experience. I think her lack of popularity is possibly because of her rather lacklustre efforts in France after that Sandown effort. In all honesty she came up against some of France's best juveniles off of her peak and ran accordingly. She reminded us of exactly how much potential she has when chasing home Landing Light in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day (beaten two and a half lengths). If both of her runs against Landing Light are accurate reflections of her ability, you could make a case that she has improved more than him and despite the poor record of five year olds in this race, it wouldn't surprise me of she got into the money.
Brother Joe (Nz) - Eight-year-old, trained by Philip Hobbs.
There has been quite a concerted punt on Brother Joe with many pundits suggesting that the faster pace of this Championship is best suited to this individual rather than a stamina test. Having noted how well he ran on the flat last summer, I tend to concur with that synopsis, however, asking me to select him to win this race is a different story entirely. He didn't run too badly behind Hors La Loi III at Wincanton recently, however, he probably needs to be capable of further improvement to go close here....that isn't out of the question.
Chimes At Midnight (USA) - A five-year-old, trained by Luke Comer in Ireland.
Although Chimes At Midnight had useful form on the level, connections haven't yet asked him to jump a flight of hurdles in anger... I cannot see him running, never mind winning this (N.B. Finished a creditable second on his hurdles debut at Clonmel last week, but still needs to find significant improvement to figure here).
Geos (FR) - A seven-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson.
Was our ante-post selection for this race last winter and judging be his effort at Sandown in April might well have landed the each-way punt at that Cheltenham festival. He's had an unusual preparation for this race, having run a blinder behind Edredon Bleu at the Peterborough Chase at Huntington on his seasonal re-appearance in November. He then didn't appear again (due to injury) before running well to a point behind Ned Kelly in the Irish Champion Hurdle...I say a point as he was there until turning into the final straight, however, he weakened alarmingly to eventually finish out of the frame. Geos tends to do that when unfit or not near full fitness, so I wouldn't be unduly worried. What may be more of concern is the nagging doubt that he hasn't improved since last season, which he'd need to, to be seriously entertained here... potentially a live outsider
Hors La Loi III (FR) - A seven-year-old, trained by James Fanshawe.
Another difficult horse to evaluate in this race because he clearly has the ability to go close as he proved when making the frame in the last running of this event and when returning to form with a vengeance at Wincanton last time out. Trainer James Fanshawe stated recently that the horse had never been better since coming into his care so you could argue a case of the horse being given the best preparation possible being almost certainly spot-on for the big day in a few weeks time. The problem in supporting him is that you must produce valid excuses for his defeats by Landing Light and Valiramix earlier in the season. Frankly, I can't do that as I believe that whilst he'll run well here, there are again likely to be others heralding his arrival to the winning line.
Istabraq - A ten-year-old, trained by Aidan O'Brien.
I have written about him at great length this winter about Istabraq and therefore there are plenty of places on this website where you can read these particular thoughts. As far as to say that if the horse has been well, the preparation for this event is arguably as bad as racing him at Leopardstown fifteen months ago on bottomless ground when not fully wound up...It doesn't add up to me. Charlie Swan and Istabraq have jumped two flights of hurdles together since another shaky effort when scrambling home at Leopardstown in December. An amazing thought is you consider how much care and attention has gone into getting him to the course in one piece (a feat in itself). I am not suggesting he isn't good enough to win the race (class will out ) however the bare bones of his recent form are not good enough (fact). For the crowd that will be there, racing with him in spirit, I hope he doesn't let them down, however, patriotism, respect and simple honest affection for a great horse has clouded some of the evidence against him. An obvious contender without suggesting his is the Champion Elect any more.
Landing Light - A seven-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson. Another difficult horse to weight up, partly because he basically does no more than is required, and as he showed at Newcastle first time out, he can look very unimpressive. This isn't the way to evaluate him. You have to judge him on the basis on what the actual outcome of his races show. He has developed into a top-flight hurdler from a promising handicapper last year and has all of the armoury required to win this race, particularly a strong finishing burst at the business end of his races. He comes into the race with an unblemished record and must surely be one of the major players here. If there is any criticism of him, it is that there is a possibility he might struggle to hold his position in a truly run affair, or even worse, a race run at an even pace early on but where the tempo is quickened from half-way. Bar that nagging doubt, there is no doubt he is one of the major contenders here.
Liss A Paoraigh - A seven-year-old trained by John Kiely.
Although she is being touted as an outsider for the Stayers Hurdle, there is a possibility that Liss A Paoraigh may be diverted to this event where she could give a good account of herself. She certainly lost no caste when beating all bar Ned Kelly in the Irish Champion Hurdle and had previously run two good races against Limestone Lad. My only concern would be that she probably must have a strong pace to be effective here and that isn't guaranteed. Should the race be run on really soft ground, her ability to stay further could come into play. She should be treated accordingly.
Marble Arch - A six-year-old, trained by Hughie Morrison
Progressive handicapper who landed the Ladbroke Hurdle in impressive style before Christmas. He should be suited by the way the race may be run, however it's a huge leap of faith to believe that the form shown thus far is good enough to take this race ... a bit of a surprise if he were good enough, though not entirely impossible
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Mister Morose - A twelve-year-old, trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
Had his first race since December 2000, when chasing home Kate's Charm in the Byrne Bros Cleeve Hurdle (Gr .1) in January. Mister Morose looked in great nick after a lengthy break and, though well below his best in the end, showed much of his old zest for a long way. He's 12 now and may not be quite the force he once was, however he may still be capable of winning races .... Not likely to be this one though.
Mr Cool - An eight-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe
Mr Cool has run two nice races over fences thus far, beaten Ibal easily at Newton Abbot in November, before chasing home Katarino in the Daily Telegraph Fulke Walwyn Novices' Chase... not really the ideal prep for a championship hurdle, and whilst he may run creditably, his presence here may purely be to ensure pace early on.
Ned Kelly - A six-year-old, trained by Edward O'Grady in Ireland
Last season's top two mile novice hurdler Ned Kelly, has had an up and down season. He gave weight and a sound beating to Joe Cullen in the Anglo Irish Bank Hurdle. He then was placed behind Limestone Lad on his last two outings, most recently when sustaining a nosebleed in the Hatton's Grace Hurdle (Gr.1) at Fairyhouse in December. He atoned in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on January 27 always travelling sweetly, before quickening up to put the matter beyond in doubt in a matter of strides to beat Liss A Paoraigh by five lengths. As good an effort as that was it is worth noting that The French Furze, got within 7 lengths of him at the line, after different tactics were employed (he was held up rather than given his head), and as that was the second time that Ned Kelly has tied up when in front exaggerated tactics will need to be employed for him to succeed. Totally plausible however, and a must for any shortlist.
Penny Rich - An eight-year-old, trained by Tom Hogan in Ireland
Penny Rich put in a good performance last time to finish third, beaten 13 lengths behind Istabraq in the Grade Two December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown in December. However, that is by far his best form of late, and arguably his formlines with Istabraq over the last two seasons weaken the claims of the "Champion" rather than aide his own ...
Regal Exit (FR) - A six-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson
Regal Exit is difficult to fancy. Second in the 2000 Triumph Hurdle, he was having his first race since May of that year, when disappointing on his reappearance, fading from three out to be beaten around 40 lengths. Regal Exit did not get the run of the race in the Tote Gold Trophy Hurdle, getting hemmed in on the rail around the final bend when Copeland committed for home. He has yet to regain his good juvenile form, and may yet do that but would only enter calculations if the ground if on the fast side.
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Rodock (FR) - An eight-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe
The enigmatic Rodock is a difficult horse to fathom. He can be a real pig when he wants to be (He certainly was over fences), but when he is on song he is very good. He was clearly on a going day when taking the Red Square Reloaded Champion Hurdle Trial (Gr. 2) from a long way out and to watch his powerful frame cruise upsides The French Furze at the last, before easing past him on the run in was a great sight. He won that day, with a deal in hand. With the benefit of hindsight running in the Agfa Hurdle so quickly after being wrong wasn't a great idea, and he looked a totally different animal, He was clumsy at his hurdles and, when the race began in earnest from the second-last, he wandered around as he did when Copeland beat him over course and distance in his first season for the Pipe camp. Rodock has always been in my opinion a high-class horse, however he is a worrier. This explains why he usually runs well when fresh. I have a theory that he's better left handed, as all of his best efforts have been that way around. Martin Pipe has gone to a lot of trouble keeping this gentle giant him right physically and mentally, including installing mirror in his stable. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he ran a lot better than his current price suggests
Rostropovich - A five-year-old, trained by Mouse Morris in Ireland
Rostropovich who had a successful Flat campaign included a Listed victory at Leopardstown in May 2001, has only had one run over hurdles this term, finishing fourth behind Istabraq in the Grade Two December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown in December. Rostropovich is also entered in the Bonusprint Stayers' Hurdle, and will be seen to better effect there.
Rouble - A six-year-old, trained by Josh Gifford
Rouble is a decent novice, and victories at Ascot in November, and in the Winter Novices' Hurdle (Gr. 2) at Sandown in December 2001, suggest that he could run well in one of the novices hurdles. He took advantage of the misguided attempt to Jair du Cochet around the tight turns of Fontwell Park last time out, but that form in still along behind what is required here, besides his future lies over fences
Valiramix (FR) - A six-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe
Valiramix has only had the one start in the Bula Hurdle (Gr. 2) ... but it was a real eye catcher. He appears to have strengthened up considerably from when last seen behind Landing Light last term at Sandown and travelled purposefully throughout his race. With Hors La Loi III (arguably his main danger that day) running no sort of race, he was entitled to win, but what pleased most onlookers was the manner in which he strode all over The French Furze all the way up the straight...winning hard held. The bare form reads well as The French Furze looks a reliable yardstick this term, so if you believe that the attractive grey can reverse form with Landing Light, who beat Valiramix at level weights at Sandown in April, (Valiramix did of course beat him very easily at Ascot before that) then Valiramix comes where with an outstanding chance. If he has a chink it may be his jumping, which let him down behind Landing Light in April, however he will be much fresher that when racing on that occasion, and that is probably more important/significant.
¦ VERDICT ¦: ¬>
Potentially, one of the most emotional races I can remember in my lifetime, and I doubt that the race has an unusual tinge to it ... the doubters and the loyal, have now divided into their groups, yet they are united in the
accolation they'll give him if he achieves his unique place in history
I've damned him throughout the season... actually that's not quite right, I've been very sceptical of the preparation, which seems amazingly light, if as his trainers states he is 100% sound. Despite the claims and counterclaims it's quite clear that the "former" champion has not been easy to train over the last couple of seasons. The reported arthritic condition clearly must have had some foundation, as I'm fairly certain that his profile would've been public bar this. The recent spin at Leopardstown was useful in some senses (he clearly will turn up next week), however the fact that this was Charlie Swan's first sit on the horse over obstacles since his reappearance at Leopardstown tell its own story.
There are two comments to make on this - either he has had problems, or connections are guilty of the same "cockiness" which resulted in that sickening fall on his reappearance last season. I do find it hard to believe that connections actually raced him unfit that day. Surely running any horse never mind "the champion hurdler" should of full fitness will lead to further complications, and maybe in part this is part of his problem.
Enough of this anyway, this isn't about sentiment this is about bare facts ... Istabraq's record and sheer class entitles him to be considered, however in Valiramix, Landing Light, and Ned Kelly, he arguably meets his sternest task.
Close examination of the form lines (through The French Furze) suggests that Valiramix may have an advantage, however whilst he cruised home at Newbury, it is conceivable that he might be flattened by the eventual margin of victory (particularly over Hor La Loi III). It is also worth pointing out that Landing Light is a "slugger" and he is quite prepared to graft out his victories, where Valiramix and Ned Kelly could conceivably be found wanting.
The key to this may be the pace of the race. It is quite clear that Martin Pipe wants to ensure that this isn't run at a false early pace by declaring Mr Cool. If he lines up, then will Istabraq "do it one more time?"... Will Ned Kelly hold it together to run up the final hill... or will Landing Light and
Valiramix keep the prize at home?
Good Luck to Istabraq, however Father Times appears to have caught up with him. He most recent form at Leopardstown falls significantly short and as much as I'd like to see him get home in front, I cannot give you a sentimental selection. I believe that either Ned Kelly Landing Light, or Valiramix will take this prize, and the meticulous preparation given to the last time sways him my way, just ahead of Landing Light.
I do also think that there are a couple of very interesting eachway bets, as punters have until recently ignored the obvious claims of Bilboa, Geos, Rodock, Azertyuiop and Hor La Loi III. Each of these has proven themselves in similar company. Bilboa, (whose entire season has been geared to this race), and Rodock (underestimated due to his highly strung temperament) in my view have the potential to surprise, so either of them could supplement any wager on the first choice.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬> Valiramix (FR)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦: ¬> Landing Light
¦ 3rd Choice ¦: ¬> Rodock (FR), (e/w)
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