Analysis & Selections by the flatman - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.

SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦". We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option " ¦2nd CHOICE¦ "  as any runners who could run well at eachway odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP" & "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.

the flat man

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1 (March 12 2002)
Race 1 - Gerrard Supreme Novices Hurdle
Can Like a Butterfly (the Irish banker of the meeting) prevail? She will need to defy the poor record of the favourites to do so but her record of 7 wins from as many starts suggests she won't go down without a fight. I'm slightly puzzled by the number of Irish contenders willing to oppose her if she is so good. I suspect, however, that the mare will take care of them again. Of the remainder, I have to say the field does not look to have strength in depth unlike the novice hurdle tomorrow. That's not to say there is no quality opposition. For example, Martin Pipe's Westender (smart handicap form to bring here after a break and McCoy's preferred mount at the time of writing) unbeaten German horse Bernardon (very smart Group performer) who has just the one run to his name over hurdles. Bernardon's win (with any amount in hand) at Taunton told us little except that we can anticipate considerable improvement and that he could be anything. I'm surprised by AP's decision to be honest. I think the considerable flat speed which he will be able to bring to the table will be the deciding factor here in the argument with Like a Butterfly. Connections of that one were dithering over whether to run her in the longer race tomorrow so this could confirm the point. Eternal Spring (who has other engagements) might be the biggest danger to the selection after her victory over Irish Hussar who boosted the form at Newbury in some style (that one unlikely to turn out). This one has looked a bit special on more than one occasion. Majlis (my selection for the County Hurdle) is entered and can give a good account if running here instead without being good enough at the weights. 

Selection Bernardon EW Eternal Spring One's to avoid Hitman

Race 2 - Irish Independent Arkle Chase
Looks a minor classic. Jumping experience could be the key here. Seebald has plenty of this and his record looks hard to fault - reflected in his price. Another in this category is the Nicholl's trained Armaturk who goes from strength to strength. I was impressed last time with the speed of his jumping (Hit and Run who is no slouch couldn't live with him at Warwick) and he may prove hard to peg back again here. He will need to continue on this upward curve as he has plenty to find with Seebald strictly on the book. Fondmort should be close to Seebald (he would have done so earlier this season bar a crashing fall) and is reported to be working smartly. But, will he remember that Cheltenham fence? Barton may also take some stopping now that he has found his confidence over fences but will 2 miles be too short? Probably. Kadarann looks quirky and may "bottle" the big occasion. Royal Auclair (another Pipe entrant) with all the allowances has plenty of other engagements but would be worth a second look if coming here. Mr Cool is unlikely to run. Youlneverwalkalone (one to avoid - does not put it in) and one who appeals greatly in Moscow Flyer lead the Irish challenge. This one would be the best of these over hurdles and carried my ante-post cash for the abandoned Champion Hurdle last year. However, jumping is the name of the game and despite this one's good schooling sessions since his Leopardstown fall, I suspect this might be exposed by his opponents rapid jumping of their fences here. That rapid jumping will be led by Armaturk and there is a danger of burnout with other front runners in opposition - he cause would be helped if Truckers Tavern does not take part for example. I'm keen on him but the coin has fallen Seebald' s way - a hold up horse who can sit of this pace and whose winning course experience together with solid jumping can prevail.

Selection Seebald EW Armaturk One's to avoid Youlneverwalkalone 

Race 3 - Smurfit Champion Hurdle
The build up will all be about Istabraq and his attempt to win a fourth title. However, I'm convinced the finish of the race won't concern him. It is quite simple - cut away the hype and you find a horse with no worthwhile form to speak of in recent times to warrant consideration here. The evidence is clear that his training is becoming almost impossible with age catching up on him. The arthritic condition is very significant - when the pressure is applied he will (quite understandably) be saving something for himself. His recent "spin" at Leopardstown was no more than a publicity/public relations effort in my opinion (told us nothing) and his preparation has been far from ideal. 

Who then can capitalise? Valiramix, Landing Light, Ned Kelly and Bilboa. Close examination of the form lines linking these (via the reliable The French Furze) gives Valiramix an advantage but that is taking the results purely at face value. Landing Light for example would have come on significantly from his reappearance while his style of racing is not conducive to large distance victories. In turn the Christmas Hurdle form with Bilboa could be misleading as that one is likely to come on the most as French horses tend to be trained for their ultimate target. Having said that, Landing Light also disposed of Bilboa at the end of last season. This one has a smart turn of foot to boot. Ned Kelly was impressive in the Irish Champion but just how much will this one find up the hill? Valiramix and Rodock look likely to be the only Pipe representatives and this is of particular significance with such quality animals as Magnus not showing. It certainly suggests to me that there is an of confidence in the camp. Of the two, Valiramix is more likely the business although there is a clear form line that gives quirky Rodock his chance. 

Of the others, Hors La Loi 11 (back to form last time but you can never be sure what you are going to get), Liss A Paoraigh (surely needs 20F) and Brother Joe's jumping (often a problem) will surely be tested at the faster pace he will encounter here. Forget the smart Azertyuiop' s effort at Wincanton last time (a rare lapse) and you have a long shot well up to running a very big race here at fancy prices. Worth bearing in mind.

Overall, in conclusion, I'm swayed by the confidence factor in Valiramix which seems irrepressible among all those connected with the Pipe team. They know this is a seriously good horse. He can defy Landing Light's turn of foot - will this one get the clear passage he needs - he does rather have flat spells in his races and that could be his undoing.

Selection Valiramix EW Bilboa One's to avoid Istabraq 

Long Shot - Azertyuiop


Race 4 - William Hill National Hunt Chase
This contest is all about how good is Racing Post winner Gunther McBride (10:11) who races here despite a 17lbs hike in his rating. This is offset somewhat by the relatively poor opposition overall. Ad Hoc (his time of year) on 11:7 makes some appeal but his jumping is always of some concern to me. He looks a little high in the weights too. 10lbs to Gunther might prove beyond him at this time. One who could surprise is Lord of the River (perfect 10-00) who made a splendid return in the Racing Post before blowing up. Lots of ground to make up on the winner but that must be a possibility granted improvement and at the revised weights. Of the others Banker Count looks too high in the weights and misses a few while Hindiana (money for him as I write) considered a future Gold Cup contender at FTG pre-season does not convince me on the jumping score either at the moment. Carryonharry (Pipe) has won his last three around the smaller tracks and looks ideally placed among the low weights. If the master trainer lets him take his chance from his numerous engagements then he must have a super chance too. Only other to catch the eye is Europa but he may run in the SunAlliance Chase instead. Let's stick with the Racing Post form to be upheld - it may be closer this time but I'll stick with the unoriginal selection of Gunther McBride.

Selection Gunther McBride EW Lord of the River 

Race 5 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase
My original thought was for The Bushkeeper who returned after a long absence to slam Soloman at Huntingdon. Up 12lbs for that and fear that his fragility may again get the better of him I have passed him over. Others to catch the eye are Billingsgate (who won the Agfa at Sandown - better race than this and not badly in here - the admirably consistent (and more than useful) Duchamp and the bottom weights Rith Dubh, Bold King and Falcon Du Coteau (just out of the weights) another Irish challenger (on a bonus mission here it should be noted) trained by A J Martin who knows what is required to lay horses out for these events. Spinofski on a role is another for the notebook. Higher up Dulas Bay represents Racing Post chase form and must come into the argument. History tells me that the low weighted horses usually oblige but it is difficult to find too much confidence about these runners. Falcon Du Coteau has it to prove at this trip/ground while Bold King generally races at a lower level than this. Rith Dubh (so close to Japhet) could be the one - but can we take that literally? No I think not but he must have chances nonetheless. 

Selection Billingsgate EW Rith Dubh One's to avoid 

Race 6 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final
A real plot race - don't be surprised if horses with no apparent form showed marked improvement here. The market should be closely watched on the day as this is likely to be a significant factor. Without that (a big disadvantage) here are my thoughts; I'm pretty sure Historic will run so weights as published I suspect. M. Pipe entries need close inspection and what he finally decides to run will give him a strong hand. It takes Time has the ability to run well of 11:10 (current favourite) but to me he is not well handicapped on some lines of form (Spendid is one example) to get my vote. He may be a step ahead of the handicapper however. Perhaps, Ballysicyos who came back to something like his best at Warwick last time might turn out to be the best of these. (Note Majed would be the best of the Pipe runners if he appears here - but he has lots of options not least the National Hunt Chase where he has crept in under the new conditions and I expect him to go there). Of the others Surprising is well fancied by Hobbs (not over keen personally) Spendid (consistent but looks exposed) and of more interest is Native Emperor, Tyneandthyneagain and Irish challenger Farinel. Difficult to be confident with so many uncertainties, with the ground seemingly going against Native Emperor (who I have great respect for) and Farinel out of the weights, my tentative vote goes to the useful and apparently back to his best Tyneandthyneagain again judged on Doncaster last Saturday. This also proved he goes on good to soft. 

Selection Tyneandthyneagain EW Ballysicyos

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2 (March 13 2002)
Race 1 - Royal and SunAlliance Novices Hurdle
I'm looking forward to this. A hot heat. Could this provide Polish entrant Galileo with a Cheltenham success? Must be a significant chance of that based on the change of gear this ex-Polish St Leger winner displayed at Kempton when demolishing the opposition on Racing Post day. Has plenty of racecourse experience to stand him in good stead here. Rouble (Champion Hurdle entrant) looks the safer bet however (but when did that ever pay dividends at Cheltenham?) following three straight wins. Josh Gifford's best horse ever is the claim so must be respected. One worry is that he may not be able to dictate as he likes to do. To add to the international feel, Samon (backed as I write) was a useful flat handicapper in Germany who will represent Pipe here under McCoy - limited hurdle (one run/one win) experience may just catch him out in my opinion in the big field. Keen Leader has impressed me of late but he very definitely needs it soft which as things stand won't happen. Likely absentee. The Bajan Bandit (stable coughing) puts me off while Classified just doesn't give me the right sparkle that this is his race.

Selection Rouble EW Galileo 

Race 2 - Queen Mother Champion Chase
Many "possibles" here but it looks to rest between Edredon Bleu and Flagship Uberalles. A titanic clash in store and a race to savour. Of the possibles, Tiutchev looks likely to run after his colic attack - surely that will have left it's mark? Ellison is so bullish about Latalomne that you have to take notice - but this is surely a bridge to far and he has plenty to find. Knife Edge's slog through the Irish mud last time did nothing for me (or for him in all probability with this race in mind) while Native Upmanship does not convince me at this trip. Similar thoughts on the smart Fadalko and I'm also unsure he likes the Cheltenham fences too much. Which really just leaves Wahiba Sands who could be the surprise package as he has a touch of class. But will he take up this option - he has multiple entries during the week but I would have thought Pipe/Johnson would want a representative here. The race maybe run entirely to suit this fellow and he might be the long priced selection for those looking to oppose the front two. But, realistically it should rest between Edredon and Flagship and for me the memory of the Tingle Creek showed the latter was no back number and "the best" on his day. He looked superb in a recent photo shoot and has clearly recovered from the soft palate operation which should facilitate his performance on the track. Edredon Bleu is another real star and he will not be easily passed. It could be one mistake by either which decides it and who knows who will make it. Flagship Uberalles gets the vote principally because I think he will prefer the likely underfoot conditions (softer side of good at a guess) which may just take the edge of his number1 opponent. Conditions which prevailed at Sandown earlier this season in fact. 

Selection Flagship Uberalles EW Wahiba Sands One's to avoid

Race 3 - Coral Eurobet Cup (Handicap)

Another major mystery for punter's to tackle. 115 entries at the time of writing. Running plans impossible to establish especially with multiple teams entered. However, despite what eventually runs, Ideal Du Bois Beury looks ideally weighted and talented in equal measure to give us a great run for our money over what looks an ideal trip. 

Selection Ideal Du Bois Beury 

Race 4 - Royal and SunAlliance Chase
This is all about Japhet. Just how good is he? Can he win it at this age? Believe, the likes of David Nicholson and the answer is "no". The age thing does not worry me - French horses begin there NH careers at a much earlier stage - they are therefore more mature than horses of the same age group here for example. There can be no doubt he is a serious racehorse based on his French record. His two runs here have just been sighters of the English fences/style of racing and this time we'll see the real racehorse I'm sure. French racehorses tend to be trained with their main objective in mind. For more on this, see the informed comments from my colleague "The Rook" who closely watches the French race scene. If, you fancy Jimmy Tennis (I do) be aware that Japhet has thrashed this one in France. Frosty Canyon? - cannot seriously be fancied to beat Japhet again when he is fully focused. Harbour Pilot (may need soft) is a serious racehorse and comes into contention under the right conditions, Colonel Braxton is worthy of respect but has he quite lived up to pre-season expectations? Not in my eyes. He might get caught out here. Similar thoughts about Valley Henry jumping wise. Europa and Maximise are other possibles but will probably not be up to the task. 

1 Japhet EW Maximise/Jimmy Tennis 

Race 5 - National Hunt Chase
I have to confess that I have no great feel for the form of this race. It is further complicated by the diverse entrants (following the revised qualifying conditions) which means people such as Martin Pipe have some, shall we say, "curious" entries (horses for example over what seems the wrong trip). Majed is of some interest and typifies my thoughts on this. Oa Baldixe from Ireland is one example to show this is not restricted to the English entries! Setting all this aside, I'll stick with a thorough stayer with sound handicap form and experience and that is Suntas. Well supported for the Eider at Newcastle last time (decent race) he apparently got caught out by the ground. I'm hopeful this consistent sort can give us a good run here at a price. Timbera (just keeps winning) may lead home the Irish challenge). 

Selection Suntas EW Timbera

Race 6 - Mildmay of Flete Handicap Chase
85 entries as I write. Very unclear picture but I suspect not a significant weights rise with Foly Pleasant (likely to run and tough). Venetia Williams holds the key in my view - has a strong team in the entries. These may include Mr Baxter Basics (patently failed to stay at Kempton in the Racing Post) but ran pleasingly (as he had at Cheltenham the time before) before the petrol ran out. The other is King on the Run (gets my vote if you just want one selection if they both run) who is both genuine and consistent and this is very much his trip. Plenty of others could appeal (if they turn up) but have numerous other engagements (some preferred) over the three days. Any relaxation in ground conditions towards soft would give Lady Cricket a sporting chance of defying a large weight such is her progress this year. Probably up against the selection though at the weights.

Selection Williams selected of King on the Run and Mr Baxter Basics 

Race 7 - Weatherbys Champion Bumper
A race to watch rather than to bet on is my view here. I never bet on this contest - there are usually more plots (and sub-plots) than any Agatha Christie novel. This year will be no different. To add to this, the horses are largely just babies and you cannot guarantee how they will perform or handle the occasion, so overall other races offer a safer betting medium. Likely favourite is Alexander Millenium from the Willie Mullins team who have won 4 of the past 5 runnings of this event. The trainer rates this one alongside his previous winners so his chances are obvious - a 20 length Christmas win at Leopardstown augurs well. At the time of writing, he has bruised a foot when pulling of a shoe which has slightly interrupted his programme - I don't think this will stop him turning up or performing up to standard. I was most impressed with the turn of speed shown by Rhinestone Cowboy at Ascot when beating Calling Brave 7 lengths on his debut (just fair form) - he is the other joint favourite and highly regarded by O'Neil. He looks to have a serious engine and that turn of foot could be the decisive factor here. A fast pace (quite likely I suspect) could just blunt his finishing kick but I'll take that risk. The list of whispers for the others is as long as my arm and I don't propose to comment because you will no doubt have heard them to and will make of them what you will. Of all the reports I've read/heard over the past few weeks, the thoughts and confidence of Paul Nicholls that Thisthatandtother is a very good animal have stayed with me - he might be the one to look out for at a price. He is apparently working well and thriving - further significant improvement is very much on the cards from his Wincanton victory. 

Selection Rhinestone Cowboy EW Thisthatandtother One to avoid 

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3 (March 14 2002) 
Race 1 - JCB Triumph Hurdle
A minefield. A bit like waiting for a bus - none and then they all come along at once. I refer of course to the sort of performances to be worthy of consideration in this heat where all winter the punters have failed to find that special horse - the bookies went 14-1 the field not so log ago. The trials to catch the eye were Eluna's at Warwick (recently bought and sent to Henderson), Lord Joshua (looked impressive) at Newbury and now at the head of the market. Giocomo did nothing wrong in the Adonis hurdle at Kempton and Tempo d'Or ran creditably (Sud Bleu looks held though on that). Before these trial my thoughts had been for Quazar (consistent and experienced though a little exposed) and Canada (useful on the flat and I liked his debut performance victory). Londoner has never really appealed while I suspect the Irish may have the strongest hand overall - of the many contenders perhaps Tender Cove is the one to keep the closest eye on. Reviewer (Pipe) is being backed (no obvious reason) as I write this - watch him to in view of the stable. Although, it seems a bit bold to select a Warwick winner - Eluna did make plenty of appeal at the time and in what is admittedly a confused picture gets the tentative vote.

Selection Eluna EW Quazar/Canada

Race 2 - Bonusprint Stayers' Hurdle
Time to unfurl the tricolor. Baracouda and Jair Du Cochet look set to dominate with the "home" challenge looking distinctly second rate. The fly in the ointment could again be Magnus (who we thought was Champion Hurdle bound) and at around 20-1 he would be the "value bet" at that price judged on his French rating which is on a par with the favourite. But with that in mind the French pair look to have only Bannow Bay to beat (quite impressed with him last time despite the criticism received) and that is surely possible. Neither of the French pair impressed last time at Kempton or Fontwell - valid excuses in both cases - false pace and tight track would have unsuited them. While I'm not convinced there will be much in it - there are more negatives about Jair Du Cochet then Baracouda and this one is taken to land the spoils - it could be an epic battle. While rejoicing in the victory it may be worth remembering what a debt we owe the French racing industry because this festival would be a poor shadow without their participation (and the French breeding stock). David Nicholson please note! 

Selection - Baracouda EW Long Shot Carlovent 

Race 3 - Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup
Mick Fitzgerald concerning his choice of Bacchanal over Marlborough said "I hope I've chosen the right one!" As much as I respect Mick's judgement generally, I can't help feeling he has got it wrong. Marlborough ran a first class trial for this race in the Aon Chase at Newbury behind Bacchanal and simply blew up. He has now become a good jumper and this is the factor where there are clearly concerns on that score with his stable companion - any recurrence of that and there will be no Gold Cup win. The ground also seems to be going Marl borough's way. 

Looks Like Trouble carried my money in the Gold Cup last time - but let's be honest that looked a modest Gold Cup. This looks a far better quality race notwithstanding his problems in between. As much as I admire all of his qualities (and I admit there has been no sign of his injury problems in his performance at Wincanton) I feel the added pressure of this race could leave their mark. For that reason alone he is passed over. The drying ground will help race tactics for Florida Pearl (can dominate) and still get home. I just think there will be a stronger stayer at the end. In that category comes the Hennessey form of What's Up Boys and Behrajan and their looks to be little in it. I fancied the former for the Gold Cup pre-season and I have not lost faith - can be excused his poor run last time when he pulled a muscle. He is three times the price of the Daly inmate and shouldn't be. I also do not believe he need soft ground to perform (note his last Cheltenham victory) unlike Behrajan who need it as soft as possible. I don't rate the Alexander Banquet form either. The others frankly make little appeal with the exception of Best Mate who clearly has class. There are doubts about him though getting the trip and although he has always jumped fine - could the special test of the Gold Cup find him out? It's just possible after all he has relatively little experience.

Selection Marlborough EW What's Up Boys 

Race 4 - Christie's Foxhunter Chase
No comment on this race. Two reasons for this; (a) this is a specialist area - the form of which I do not follow in sufficient detail overall to comment; (b) I've seen the glint in my colleague's eyes (the Rook), that spring in his step when the name of Horus is mentioned in connection with this contest. See his informed view under his comments for this race - you will feel, I'm quite sure, his confidence oozing through his words. On that basis, I will make him my selection too. One warning I would make, to those wishing to support leading Irish candidate Sheltering, is that I well recall watching him struggle to jump these fences two years ago. Taking too short a price on him might not be advisable with this in mind (although I acknowledge that a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then). Gunner Welburn is another to consider closely. 

Selection Horus EW None One's to avoid None 

Race 5 - Cheltenham Grand Annual Handicap Chase

72 entries as I write - very unclear picture with many of the principals most likely to run elsewhere. A big weights rise possible. The Irish appear to have quite a strong hand from the entries - keep a close eye on any of those who turn up (It's Time for a Wyn, Fadoudal du Cochet, Strong Run and Ross Moff look of particular interest). Hit and Run looks nicely weighted but if the weights rise that will change - I was not impressed with him at all at Warwick (race may not have been run to suit) - he is best forgiven and is worth a look. In banking that the weights rise the selection is Batswing (I'm hoping he'll miss the Arkle) who has plenty of ability and is very versatile and consistent. He could end up nicely weighted indeed. But beware the Irish challenge! (looks there strongest chance of the week in the handicaps). Finally, Royal Auclair appears in the entries again - I don't think he'll participate with the likely weights rise but frankly who knows? Consider him closely in whatever engagement he takes up.

Selection Batswing 

Race 6 - Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase
Royal Auclair again - enough said. Nicholls looks to have a strong hand and his selected would be worthy of respect - but look no further than Golden Goal who goes from strength to strength - jumps fine and does not look overburdened. 

1. Golden Goal 


Race 7 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
I believe Copeland will run here. This means no significant change in the weights as they stand - that is a week ahead of the race with 115 entries. If that is the case, then Copeland himself (I think he would have had place chances in the Champion Hurdle if he had been entered), the consistent bridesmaid Rooster Booster, Polar Red (one of several but perhaps the leading contender trying for the Sunderland's Imperial Cup bonus), The Gatherer (plenty of support last time behind Copeland in the Tote Gold Trophy, Dark Shell (unlikely to be ready - saved for Aintree), Fiori (game winner last time), Holy Orders (laid out), Joe Cullen (classy on his day - see Irish Champion form - but may need a faster surface than he'll get on badly battered ground by then), Lisaan (another going for a bonus) look the one's to concentrate on. The selection, however, is reformed rogue (via application of blinkers) Majlis - who is nicely weighted as things stand and continues to go from strength to strength. His Lanzarote win was accomplished with something in hand and represents form good enough to take a hand here. More to come. Copeland runner up that day can also go well but you have to suspect the weight might just prove too much for his forcing style. While Rooster Booster looks sure to give his running - the other of obvious interest is smart Cheltenham winner Polar Red. Much will depend on his weekend performance/exertions and I cannot judge this now but it should be noted he is nicely weighted on 10:4 in this contest. Lisaan would be favoured by a rise in the weights and we will have to see if that happens but the form does not amount to much Holy Orders meanwhile looks to have been perfectly placed and is not really reliant on a rise taking place. One to consider very closely but again the form is not inspiring. I like Fiori - who looks a little exposed for this but is in great heart at present - really gutsy effort last time - if he is in the line up then a few shekels may get you a good run for your money.

Note: The whole complexion of my thoughts on this race would change if Magnus runs of 12:00 here (and I'm beginning to suspect this might happen). 

Selection Majlis EW Fiori One's to avoid 

This page was updated - Friday March 08, 2002 09:18:38 PM