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Analysis & Selections by
t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners "¦1èr CHOICE¦".
We also have provided you with who in our view is the next best option "
¦2nd CHOICE¦ " as any runners who could run well at eachway
odds "¦ 3rd CHOICE¦". Any runner from our horses to follow features "ONE TO JUMP"
& "FUTURE WINNERS" are shown before each race's analysis/selections.
CHELTENHAM NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL 2002
Thursday 14th March, 2002
¦ 3° CHELTENHAM ¦ :¬>
3:15 Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
total prize fund £300,000, Thursday, march 14, 2002., 3m 2½f. for 5yo & upwards. weights: 5yo 11st 4lb; 6yo & upwards 12st. allowances: mares 5lb.
¦+======+¦¤º°¤¦ at the post ¦¤º°¤¦+======+¦
¦ are there any entries from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦ :¬>
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k ¦ :¬>Forty-three runners were entered to lift the blue
Riband of steeplechasing and in my view this is probably one of the best renewals of the race in recent times. Two previous winners, See More Business (the winner in 1999) and Looks Like Trouble (the most recent winner) are amongst the entrants. Will they be fancied by us? Here are my thoughts on the race:
Ad Hoc - An eight-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls.
Depending on your view, Ad Hoc has either no chance or a decent one depending on the lines of form you choose to accept as most valid. The horse that strode majestically up Sandown's hill last April to win the Whitbread is a horse worth keeping on the right side of. The "imitation" that has disappointed so far this season is one worth avoiding. As he is a spring horse, he is probably best keeping on the right side of and would be worth considering in an open season.
Alexander Banquet - A nine-year-old, trained by Willie Mullins.
Conditions appear to have come right for Alexander Banquet as this mud-loving, out-and-out stayer will appreciate every drop of rain that continues to fall. He boasts sound credentials as well having finished a promising third to Foxchapel King in the Ericsson Chase (Grade 2) at Leopardstown in December. He then outstayed his rivals when taking the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup at Leopardstown last time out. A word of caution - with no natural front-runner amongst the entries (except possibly See More Business) there is a possibility that his ace card (i.e. his stamina) will not be best employed and if I wanted to take any of the prices on offer for him, I would certainly would want to take that into consideration.
Arctic Camper - A ten-year-old, trained by Venetia Williams.
An honest handicapper who humbled See More Business (or would have done if the former champion hadn't fallen) earlier this season and is probably best summed up by these six words: "Better off running in a handicap".
Bacchanal - An eight-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson.
Trainer Nicky Henderson is fortunate to be able to have in his armoury two of the leading candidates in this race and at present, conditions don't really favour either of them. Bacchanal, winner of the 2000 Stayers Hurdle, is currently the more favoured in the betting exchanges yet in my view, he has as much to prove here as his stable companion Marlborough. As honest a horse as he is, it is odd that people suggest that he is likely to overturn King George form with Florida Pearl and Best Mate, arguing that he will outstay these two up the Cheltenham hill. Whilst the notion is feasible, it is worth remember that he would be the worse jumper of the three and a repeat of any of the jumping errors that hindered his attempt at Kempton and more recently when winning at Newbury (where he was particularly slow at his obstacles, as well as hanging out to his right). In my view, the only way the stamina comes into play is if he is able to hold position during this race. If you intend to support him you should take this into consideration. He is certainly one for the shortlist in any case.
Banker Count - A ten-year-old, trained by Venetia Williams.
Banker Count has shown significant improvement this season for trainers Mick Easterby and more recently Venetia Williams, however, he appeared not to stay 3 miles when finishing behind Red Striker in the Bet Direct Peter Marsh Chase (Limited Handicap) (Gr. 2) and more recently when beaten fair and square by Tresor De Mai at Ascot over two and a half miles. I think the race will need to be run at a dawdle for him to get home.
Behrajan - A seven-year-old, trained by Henry Daly.
Definitely has leapt into prominence this season after just failing to withhold What's Up Boys in the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury. He appears to have improved on his subsequent starts putting up one of the most impressive performances of the season when winning the Rowland Merrick Chase and most recently when staying on stoutly to finish an honourable second to Alexander Banquet in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup (Gr. 1) His performances are all the more meritorious if you consider how quite his trainer's stable has been this season and he appears set to put in a solid effort here. If I have any cause for concern, it is that he wouldn't want to be in front too soon. Anybody who saw him throw away a race at Cheltenham over course and distance last season will be praying that those tactics are not used next week. A major contender.
Best Mate - A seven-year-old, trained by Henrietta Knight.
It is typical of the current vogue that Best Mate (who was held in such high esteem last season) is now overlooked because his apparent air of invincibility has twice been pierced.
To be honest, I fail to see what the horse has actually done wrong. He probably posted one of the best performances this season over the minimum trip when winning on his reappearance at Exeter and was unfortunate to catch Wahiba Sands on one of his better days when finishing second to him at Ascot in November. Stepping up to 3 miles for the first time, he was an honourable second to Florida Pearl in the King George VI chase. Those form figures alone entitle him to the closest inspection and it seems ironic to me that when so much has been written about his possible lack of stamina, the lack of natural early pace surely aids his chances of victory here. If I were his trainer, that is exactly what I would tell Jim Culloty to do ...be positive!!!. Negativity will cost you the race.
Commanche Court- A nine-year-old trained by Ted Walsh.
Commanche Court has established himself as one of the best staying chasers in Ireland with victories in the 2000 versions of the Irish Grand National and Heineken Gold Cup. As useful as he is, the formbook suggests that he a bit to find, though he would be one of the livelier outsiders
Cyfor Malta (Fr), nine-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe
Cyfor Malta doesn't owe me anything, and certainly gave me a great deal of pleasure when winning first time up at Newbury, silencing those who suggested that he'd "gone". The form of that race has taken quite a knock though there is no doubt the second, Young Devereaux was potentially very well handicapped, and Red Ark, (over
50lengths behind) has recently cruised home to two victories. For the second year running, he failed to build on that effort in the Pillar Chase, completely failing to act on the surface... Write him off at your peril. You can't judge any horse on that ground - although the formbook suggests that he has something to find, it would surprise me if he ran a big race .. a lively "outsider"
Florida Pearl , ten-year-old, trained by Willie Mullins
There is no doubt that if this race were over 3miles then this horse would probably go off favourite (or certainly near it). After a disappointing effort in the James Nicholson Wine Merchant Champion Chase in November, Florida Pearl got the better of Native Upmanship, Rince Ri, and Sackville in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase (Gr. 1). Even better was his effort ion the King George VI Chase, when aggressive tactics gave him more zest / appetite for the task at hand, and he stayed on powerfully up the final straight to withhold the final challenge from Best Mate. A negative ride and bottomless ground saw a reversal of fortune in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup (Gr. 1), however he record at the course suggests a prominent show is likely ... be in no doubt Florida Pearl has an outstanding chance, and must be included on your shortlist
Foxchapel King - a nine-year-old, trained by Mouse Morris
Foxchapel King has improved throughout the season, lifting the Michael Punch & Partners Munster National Handicap Chase at Limerick in October before a career-best performance in the James Nicholson Wine Merchant Champion Chase in November, making virtually all and staying on gamely when pressed by Florida Pearl from before the second last and was always holding that rival, who failed to find any extra in the closing stages. On his most recent start, Foxchapel King took the Ericsson Chase (Grade 2) at Leopardstown in December, holding the challenges of Rince Ri, Native Upmanship and Alexander Banquet. Further improvement will be needed if he is to get into the shake-up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but he appears capable of that improvement ... another possible
Go Ballistic - a thirteen-year-old, trained by Henrietta Knight
Whilst the facts suggest that Go Ballistic's good record at Cheltenham, entitles him to close inspection. The record also show that you have to go back as far as February 1998 ,where he lifted the Jim Ford Challenge Cup Chase to find his last win over fences, and he is readily passed over as a likely winner.
Hindiana (Fr), seven-year-old, trained by Ferdy Murphy
Whilst Hindiana has run creditably despite being highly tried this season, most recently in the Peter Marsh Chase (Limited Handicap) at Haydock, where he stayed on up the straight to be a respectable seventh. This is a fair way from being good enough, and unless this former decent French chaser can recapture that level of form, (or we have similar ground to that on Pillar Chase day) he has to be passed over,
Kingsmark , nine-year-old, trained by Martin Todhunter
If you took the form of the Edward Hammer Memorial Chase (Limited Handicap) at Haydock at face value, you could argue a case for this horse, and he gave a sound beating to Behrajan, and Banker Count. Its fair to say thought that both of these have improved since then (especially
Behrajan) that said his subsequent effort when failing by ½ length, to give 2lbs to Legal Right in the Tommy Whittle Chase (Class A) Grade 2 back at Haydock, shows that he isn't too far behind the main principles, and deserve a go here, especially if the mud flies.
Legal Right (Usa), nine-year-old, trained by Jonjo O'Neill
Having suffered intermittent lameness throughout his career, connections deserve great credit for managing to get as many races out of him this season... it has also been of particular use to punters as we can see his true worth in a better worth .... Useful, but just missing the top plateau ...sure to run well but you'd be
disapointed if there weren't a couple too good for him.
Looks Like Trouble , ten-year-old, trained by Noel Chance
The current favourite and "reigning champion", however I am having real problem establishing his real worth. He clearly is a talented individual, there is no doubt about that, however how good is his John Bull Chase form? After all Whitenzo has been soundly beaten twice since, and See More Business exposed the wayward Upgrade's limitations at the track last time out. I take the view that this wasn't top class form, and that the horse needs to improve to figure prominently here .. fortunately he is capable of such improvement .. another for the shortlist.
Lord Noelie - a nine-year-old, trained by Henrietta Knight
I have a lot of time for Lord Noelie, however whilst he clearly has ability , the fact remains that he hasn't won since taking the 2000 Sun Alliance Chase. There is a parody with Go Ballistic, as this horse is capable of a bold run here (his third in the Hennessy was one of the better weight carrying performances of the season). You get the impression though that every thing will need to go right for him, and that includes have the right ground ... and even then he may get only into the frame ... a solid eachway candidate
Lord Of The River - A, ten-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson
Connections must pleased with how Lord Of The River ran last week in the Racing Post Chase: his first effort since the 1999 Royal & SunAlliance Novice Chase. It is though a long way from being Gold Cup form, and I'm fairly certain he may be seen to better effect in one of the handicaps
Marlborough - A ten-year-old, trained by Nicky Henderson.
Despite having won twenty-four races at the Cheltenham Festival, Nicky Henderson is yet to lift chasing's blue
Riband. As well as Bacchanal (who we've discussed earlier) he also has another serious candidate in the shape of Marlborough, winner of the Tote Gold Trophy and Sandown last April (the substitute Gold Cup). He wasn't particularly impressive that day in defeating Go Ballistic and there are many who questioned the plaudits given to the horse. He went a long way to silencing those critics with an eye-catching run behind stablemate Bacchanal in the Aon Chase at Newbury last month (his first effort since his Sandown victory). It was difficult not to be pleased with the effort - he jumped adequately for new pilot Ruby Walsh and approaching the second-last appeared to be travelling as well (if not better) than the eventual winner. A lack of match fitness in part due to a recent operation on his epiglottis meant that he weakened alarmingly, particularly after the last. The actual winning distances are therefore irrelevant as there is no doubt that he would have finished a lot closer bar this and would have strong claims to reversing the places, given the run of the race on the day. I don't envy Mick Fitzgerald at all, as I think he has a very difficult decision to make between these two.
Moscow Express , A ten-year-old, trained by Frances Crowley
A useful performing in Ireland, whose run creditably this term before landing the Red Mills Trial Chase at Gowran Park on his latest start. He wouldn't disgrace himself, however recent formlines suggest that Foxchapel king , Florida Pearl, and Alexander Banquet have better claims than him
No Retreat (Nz), A nine-year-old, trained by Brian Baugh
Absolutely no chance whatsoever!!!
Red Striker, An eight-year-old, trained by Norman Mason
Red Striker is a credit to the Mason/Guest Combination, and the typical progressive season bore fruit at the third attempt when outstaying Banker Count in the Bet Direct Peter Marsh Chase (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2). His record over fences suggests relentless improvement overall and, when the mud is flying, he remains the sort to have a say in major handicaps... That said the Gold Cup looks highly optimistic, unless we have "Pillar Chase" type ground again.
Rince Ri - A nine-year-old, trained by Ted Walsh
misses the race due to an attack of colic.
Sackville , A - nine-year-old, trained by Frances Crowley Ire
A couple of months ago, there was no doubt that Sackville was Ireland's leading hope for the Gold Cup. He was the ante-post favourite in the bookmakers' lists on the basis of his victory over Limestone Lad in the Power Gold Cup Grade 1 at Fairyhouse in May; a creditable third at Punchestown in October over an inadequate two miles, and a victory in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby Grade 2 in November, where he stayed on resolutely to defeat Sleeping Night by two lengths. Things appear to have gone wrong since then. He didn't please everyone when third to Florida Pearl in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown Grade 1 in December, and didn't appear to be right when running poorly on his next start over hurdles. Even allowing for the ground, his effort behind Alexander Banquet in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup was to put it mildly woeful, and the sight of his scrambling over the last obstacle will remain in the mind of punters for a while to come. He has (had) the ability to go well here, however you need a leap of faith to a believer in him to turn matters around
See More Business ,- A twelve-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls
See More Business owes nobody anything, and deserved the warm reception he received for winning the
Jim Ford Chase (Listed Race), however the race was of limited significance in term of being a championship trial, and actually showed up some See More Business' deficiencies. whilst he was far more enthusiastic that when he ran in the Welsh Grand National, however Upgrade appeared for most of the race to be travelling best - a mistake at the fourth-last put him several lengths adrift of Upgrade. It was only when Upgrade's stamina failed that he was able to get on top, and the wining distance grossly flatters him. For he to succeed, you'd have to think that matters will need to go his way to succeed, although he shouldn't be entirely dismissed, especially as he has one of the best bits of weight carrying form this term
Shooting Light - A nine-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe.
Hmm...I should be keener on a horse that clearly has improved since joining the Pipe camp, after all, he couldn't have been more impressive on his debut this season at Cheltenham and ultimately was an authoritative winner of the Thomas Pink Gold Cup over the same course and distance. If that weren't good enough he arguably posted his best effort of the season when easily landing the Tote Silver Cup at Ascot in December. Despite all of that, I'm not very keen. It's possibly because of what he'd done the previous season over fences...it simply may be that despite the improvement shown he would need to improve again to take this affair. He also hasn't proved that he would be suited by the trip (though I don't believe that is necessarily an issue). I wonder if the stable has the same view as me? I mean, I've never heard, for example, the stable talk of the horse in the same terms as they do Cyfor Malta...I'll be interested to see which one of these "A.P." chooses to ride.
Shotgun Willy - An eight-year-old, trained by Paul Nicholls.
Shotgun Willy is an interesting contender if current ground conditions remain the same. He was a top-class novice last season and did well to beat an admittedly unfit First Gold in the 2001 Aon Chase. He's been relatively quiet this year having run creditably to finish third to Sackville in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in November and more recently when he stayed on strongly to finish second behind Bacchanal in the Aon chase.
As good as those races are, he doesn't appear to have come on as much as you would have expected him to and arguably he is held by several of these. The extra distance may aid his chances so he wouldn't be one I'd entirely overlook (unless of course the ground dries up, in which case he almost certainly wouldn't run).
Sleeping Night (Fr) - A six-year-old, trained by Mary Reveley.
It'll be interesting to see whether Mary Reveley allows Sleeping Night to take his chance here. This former useful French chaser has had a chequered time over here. He probably didn't get the credit any five-year-old should have done when just failing to hold Sackville in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. Can you think of any recent example where a five-year-old chaser gave weight to Gold Cup contenders and beat them fair and square? That was his first effort for almost a year and he was expected to come on when taking on Edredon Bleu in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on his next start. For whatever reason, he ran atrociously and was pulled up. He wasn't seen on the racecourse again until lining up against Stayers Hurdle "good thing" Barracuda in the
Rendlesham Hurdle. He wouldn't have been best served by the muddling pace, yet ran a blinder making Barracuda pull out all the stops before keeping his unbeaten record in this country. Because of the Mary Reveley Cheltenham hoodoo this horse should go off at a very good price. He may not be quite good enough to take this, however, two pieces of form this season suggest he could be a very lively outsider
What's Up Boys - An eight-year-old, trained by Philip Hobbs.
Although What's Up Boys ran on dourly to pip Behrajan in the Hennessey Gold Cup, the balance of his form (including being soundly beaten in the Welsh Grand National and a poor effort in the Aon Chase) suggests he has something to find. I won't go any further than that because I have twice witnessed this horse land races when seemingly having an impossible chance. I think I'll avoid the "famous last words" cliché.
You're Agoodun- A ten-year-old, trained by Martin Pipe.
You're not, you know!....That is a little harsh actually because this horse is capable of winning a decent prize, however, none of his efforts recently suggest that that prize would be the Blue Riband of Steeplechasing.
¦ VERDICT ¦ :¬>
Boy, this is tough.!!! All the form lines are inconclusive and now the icing on the cake is the likelihood of, at the very best, a dead-ground Gold Cup, but conceivably it could get faster than that. Every single time I look at one of these runners I am just as likely to ask myself a question of him as I am to praise him. Purely on the basis of the likely ground, you'd have to favour the following horses:
Bacchanal
Behrajan
Best Mate
Commanche Court
Cyfor Malta
Florida Pearl
Foxchapel King
Looks Like Trouble
Lord Noelie
Marlborough
Shooting Light
Sleeping Night
There is another factor to consider, one that Florida Pearl's detractors might have overlooked - bar himself and See More Business there is no guaranteed pace in this race and whilst Florida Pearl will almost certainly be given a more committed ride that last time out at Leopardstown, there's no way he's going to set this race up for his
rivals... in short they could dawdle in the same way they dawdled then quickened the pace then slowed the pace when Looks Like Trouble won. This will mean surely that the best horse in this race may not win it and this is more about the horse who's best suited to the way this race might be run. If more aggressive tactics had been used in 2000, you could argue (considering his proximity to Looks Like Trouble) that Florida Pearl might have gone very close.
Don't be too surprised if Adrian McGuire doesn't allow this horse to go on too early in the race at the pace he chooses to. As a result, this could force some of these to alter their tactics. Then again, Looks Like Trouble may do as he did on his reappearance and attempt to sustain an early strong pace throughout. When this tactic is employed, he has looked at his best and I would not be in the least bit surprised if he and Florida Pearl aren't ultimately responsible for how the race is run.
Although this may not be run at what is considered normal championship pace, I'd be surprised if it wasn't run fast enough to make it fair to all and on that premise, with the exception of these two runners, I'd much prefer to be on horses coming from the rear. I am concerned about Bacchanal's jumping at this level, however, he may be seen in a better light if this race is run truly from gun to tape. This also applies to Best Mate, Behrajan, Marlborough, Cyfor Malta and Sleeping Night. As the race begins in earnest from a mile out you really want to be looking out for those runners
maneuvering themselves into position for the final run for home...again I'd expect these runners to still be amongst those still in contention.
The final straight where guts and heart are required. Which of these has the best constitution?
It could be here (and only here) where some of these will be found wanting. I truly would love to see Best Mate win this, but I've always been of the view that this might be one year too soon for him. Looks Like Trouble has done it before, but how good really is his Wincanton form? Bacchanal and
Behrajan will be staying on better than most up the final hill, but will they have knocked himself out of contention beforehand? Or will Florida Pearl finally get the title he so richly deserves.
It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Florida Pearl is in front approaching the last, however, he may have to give best to Marlborough here. Whilst Best Mate is my horse of the future, Marlborough is ready now. His "prep" race at Newbury was
as much as I'd hoped for. In as open a year as this, I have to side with proven Cheltenham form. Marlborough has proven his ability at the circuit and it isn't difficult to imagine him creeping into contention
approaching the final couple of obstacles before staying up the hill to score.
If there is to be a "surprise" here, then I believe that Foxchapel King, Cyfor Malta or Sleeping Night may provide it. I fully expect Cyfor Malta to prove the Pillar form to be completely false and wouldn't be surprised if he made the frame. Similarly, if you ignore the runs in between, Sleeping Night's form with Sackville earlier in the season and more recently Barracuda at Kempton entitles him to the utmost respect. At current odds, both of these are worthy of each-way consideration.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦ :¬>Marlborough
¦ 2nd Choice ¦ :¬>Cyfor Malta (FR)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦ :¬>Sleeping Night, (e/w)
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