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Cheltenham
'03 |
Analysis
& Selections by
a.a. all-weather &
"the rook"
Whether it be
"the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses
participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or
two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er CHOICE), as well as
the next best runners (in our view, this can include any horses who could run well at eachway
odds). Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
NATIONAL HUNT FESTIVAL 2003
Old Course
Tuesday, March 11, 2003
|¯¯i^¯CHELTENHAM¯¯|¯¯¯»- 2:00 Gerrard Wealth Management Supreme Novices' Hurdle2miles~½f £100,000 - Grade 1, 2pm, Tuesday, March 11, 2003, total prize fund £100,000, two miles and about half a furlong, for novice four-year-olds and upwards. Weights 4-y-o 11st, 5-y-o and upwards 11st 8lb, fillies and mares allowance 5lb. Entries closed January 22, 2003 (127 entries), entries released, Monday, January 27, forfeit stage February 18.
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¦ "one to jump" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "ONE TO JUMP" 2002/3 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-
Thisthatandtother, Caracciola (GER), Brooklyn Breeze, Foreman (GER),
Masteroffoxhounds & Inca Trail
¦ "future winners" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "FUTURE WINNERS (N.H.)" - Our feature which notes horses to watch for follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-
Well Chief (GER) & Lirfox (FR), Limerick Boy (GER)
¦ "the rook" ¦:¬»- Day one, as ever opens with the Supreme Novices
Hurdle. One hundred and twenty-seven horses were originally entered for this
event, each of them seeking to add their name to the illustrious group of
previous winners which includes Vulgan (1948), Flying Bolt (1964), L'Escargot (1968), Bula (1970), Beacon Light (1976), Golden Cygnet (1978), Hors La Loi III
(1999) and of course Like-A-Butterfly last season. With the likely favourite
Rhinestone Cowboy looking set to take his chance in the Champion Hurdle, the
race appears to have opened up somewhat. Here's my selected from those entered
and likely to be going for this prize:
 |
Always Rainbows - The winner of two of his four starts this term, and was
particularly impressive when winning at Wetherby on his third start. Humbled
by Rhinestone Cowboy at the same venue next time out and might be vulnerable
up against horses of a similar calibre; |
|
Back In Front - Edward O'Grady's charge is probably Ireland's best hope of
landing this prize. Third in one of the strongest renewals of the Cheltenham
bumper last season, Back In Front has made an extremely promising start to
his hurdling career. Failing by a length and a half to beat Hardy Eustace on
his debut over hurdles at Fairyhouse in December, Back In Front has twice
impressed when running away against ordinary opposition. The field here will
be stronger, however he has already indicated he is more than capable of
holding his own at this level; |
|
Bosham Mill - Not sure that Bosham Mill will take his place in this
lineup, however Bosham Mill might be interesting if he got some experience
prior to the Festival. He was Listed class on the flat when trained by Geoff
Wragg and might have been better than that if his temperament hadn't got the
better of him. Difficult to see him winning, however might pay to follow
over hurdles; |
|
Brooklyn Breeze - A horse of immense potential as demonstrated by wins at
Aintree then Musselburgh...his stable however has been under a cloud having
had the virus and connections would be best served by saving him until next
season; |
|
Caracciola - Developing into a nice handicap prospect for next
season, however it's difficult to be over-enthusiastic about his chances at
this level after being soundly beaten last time out at Kempton. In his
defence, the combination of a fast run race and decent ground on this course
might suit him better; |
|
Chauvinist - Looked decent when winning his first two starts at Ascot
including the valuable Ladbroke (Handicap Hurdle), however failed to fire
after being raised in the weights in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury. Has
the potential to run well given ideal conditions and a strong pace; |
|
Dancing Bay - Does have two wins to his name this season, however
struggled to win at Plumpton and will do well to figure at this level; |
|
Dangerously Good - A winner on the flat in Spain, who is a interesting
entrant in this race from a stable renowned for their shrewdness.
Impossible to say how good he is until he steps on the track, however he may
be worth looking out for in maiden company on the Northern circuit; |
|
Don Fernando - There are probably hundreds of punters who will have laid
out money for this horse to win the JCB Triumph Hurdle on the third day of
the meeting, however Martin Pipe has a particularly good record with his
four-year-olds in this race and for that reason alone it might be worth
paying him close attention if he is declared. I have to profess that on
first inspection, I didn't believe his form was good enough in this
particular race, however I'm open to persuasion; |
|
Double Honour (FR) - Looked very impressive when winning on his debut at
Huntingdon and Exeter, however was trounced by Foreman last time out at
Kempton. Not quite sure what to make of him. It might be that despite
staying well on the flat, he may not appreciate a distance of ground over
obstacles. Whichever the case, I have a nagging concern that he may not have
the "gears" to win a race of this nature at this level. Time will
tell; |
|
Dream With Me - Vastly improved this season since joining Nicholashayne
after disappointing last season when trained by Charlie Edgerton. Martin
Pipe has done well to win five races with him this season, however I will be
surprised if he adds to that tally here; |
|
Foreman - I make a big point of slamming those who
criticize foreign
jockeyship and there'll be opportunities in this feature to no doubt do that
again. I will take the opportunity to highlight the training talents of
Thierry Doumen who gets a lot of "stick" for his style of riding
but who is rarely given credit for the role he played with his father in
preparing Barracuda to win ten races in succession. He has now been given
further opportunity to highlight these talents with a small string of horses
he trains exclusively for Ecurié Passing. Amongst them is Foreman, one of
the best juvenile hurdlers in France last year who served notice last time
out at Kempton that he is a horse to be taken seriously at this level when
he sprinted clear to easily beat Double Honour who could reoppose here. On
decent ground he may have a better chance in the SunAlliance Hurdle but
should be respected if he lines up here; |
|
Hardy Eustace - Has only tasted defeat one this season over hurdles at the
hands of Solerina at Leopardstown last time out but must enter calculations
having beaten Back In Front when winning the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle [gr. 1]
at Fairyhouse. He is still in the SunAlliance hurdle, so a watching brief
is probably advised; |
|
Inca Trail - Best Mate's full-brother probably would win the prize for the
most attractive winner in the lineup and does have ability to match that as
demonstrated when he cruised home last time out at Ludlow. I do have some
reservations about him and can't help he may run a similar race to his
brother who was "done for toe" coming down the hill before staying
on really strongly to finish third to Sausalito Bay. He'll always take my
eye (and, I suspect yours) and could go well at a nice price for each-way
punters.; |
|
Kicking King - Also entered in the SunAlliance Novice Hurdle and has done
very little wrong this season, winning two of his three starts and like many
Irish challengers, only tasting defeat at the hands of Solerina. Does strike
me as a stayer and probably has better claims in the 2 ½ mile event tomorrow. That said, he wouldn't disgrace himself here; |
|
Limerick Boy (GER) - It's a bit of a big ask attempting to win this race
without previous experience, however Limerick Boy does boast some useful
group form on the level from when was trained in Germany. Worth a mention
just in case he were to impress in an assignment between now and the
festival; |
|
Lirfox (FR) - Very interested in this horse who has the distinction of having
beaten Japhet over hurdles just before Christmas. Lirfox might be useful and
definitely warrants respect if connections declare her for this prize; |
|
Macs Valley - Has run consistently well this season, a positive as his
stable has been badly out of sorts this term. He was 10 ½ lengths
behind Hardy Eustace in the Royal Bond Novices Hurdle at Fairyhouse at the
beginning of December and will need to have improved to figure here; |
|
Masteroffoxhounds - Having been in the care of Aidan O'Brien until quite
recently, it's fair to assume that Masteroffoxhounds did at one stage show
connections that he possessed plenty of ability. He had to wait until
November of last year to demonstrate this on the racecourse and after being
given an injudicious ride on his racecourse debut, rattled off a quick
hat-trick of successes in bumpers at Cork as well as readily landing a
maiden hurdle at Down Royal in January. Ran well below last time as though
something was amiss, however I believe merits respect if he lines up here
especially when connections could have run Rhinestone Cowboy instead; |
|
Mise Rafturai - Although he has a good season winning four handicap
hurdles in succession, this would be a significant rise in class and he may
not be up to the task; |
|
Pizarro - The only horse to beat Rhinestone Cowboy has had an up and down
season over hurdles landing a Grade 3 event at Navan in November from Solerina, however he disappointed when soundly thrashed by that opponent
next time out. He clearly wasn't right that day and proved that when
thrashing a field at Naas? three weeks ago. The stable already have Back In
Front in this lineup and he is more likely to run in the Royal &
SunAlliance hurdle. Wherever he goes, he deserves the utmost respect; |
|
Puntal (FR) - Looked impressive during the summer and last time out at Kempton.
However, his aggressive style of racing is always likely to leave him
vulnerable at this distance as proved by how easily he was disposed of by
Kopek at Ascot and Thisthatandtother at Wincanton. Personally, he makes far
more appeal in the SunAlliance Hurdle; |
|
Rhinestone Cowboy - Impossible not to be impressed with him this term and
deserves a shot at the Champion Hurdle after beating Thisthatandtother and
Hors La Loi III at Wincanton. Would have to be considered if he was to go
here, however the stable have confirmed the Champion as his intended target; |
|
Rosaker - Given a baptism of fire on his debut over hurdles when finishing
5th to Hardy Eustace in the Royal Bond Novices Hurdle at Fairyhouse in
December. Rosaker has improved with each effort over hurdles, culminating in
a win at Naas last month. I've always believed it's only a matter of time
before a "UAE cast-off" did well over hurdles and if there is a
joker in this pack, I wouldn't be surprised if Rosaker were it; |
|
Supreme Developer - Very good bumper horse who as yet hasn't translated
that ability to obstacles despite running well in defeat. That said, he did
win last time at could go well on a fast surface; |
|
The Biker - Ex-Irish bumper. Has taken well to hurdling, winning minor
events at Uttoxeter and Newton Abbot. Despite some indifferent jumping, he
is a lovely horse who should develop into a nice chaser in the next couple
of seasons, however needs to improve physically and mentally to figure at
this level; |
|
Thisthatandtother - Has only tasted defeat twice this season at the hands
of Coolnagorna at Sandown and Rhinestone Cowboy last time out at Wincanton.
His claim is obvious, however is he suited by undulating courses? ; |
|
Well Chief (GER) - Boasted useful group form in Germany prior to joining
Nicholashayne (hence his inclusion in our Future Winners feature) and has
looked useful in landing wins at Taunton and most recently when showing a
good turn of foot to win the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. He is also in the
Triumph, however has a lot of presence about him and could be interesting
receiving weight here. Definitely shortlist material. |
¦"OUR VERDICT" ¦:¬»- With
the obvious selection Rhinestone Cowboy defecting to run instead in the Champion
Hurdle the door has been opened for a less likely winner to prevail. The likes
of Back In Front, Chauvinist, Rosaker, Supreme Developer, Joueur D'estruval
and Thisthatandtother immediately spring to mind, however I do like Martin
Pipe's pair Lirfox and Well Chief as well as Venetia William's Limerick Boy who
most punters will find difficult to gauge. My suggestion would be to do a
combination of these and if he were to run here, Well Chief would make most
appeal, particularly as Martin Pipe has an excellent record in this race with
the 4-year-olds he races. In his absence, Back In Front would get the nod though
I might be tempted to have a little on Lirfox who probably is currently a nice
price.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»- Well
Chief (GER)
¦ 2nd Place? ¦:¬»- Back In Front
¦ 3rd Place? ¦:¬»-Lirfox (e/w)
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-Thisthatandtother
|¯¯ii^¯CHELTENHAM¯¯|¯¯¯»- 2:35 Irish Independent Arkle Steeple ch'2miles~£140,000 - Class A, Grade One, Total Prize Fund £140,000, Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 11, 2003, two miles. For novice 5yo & upwards. Weights: 5yo 11st 3lb; 6yo & upwards 11st 8lb. Allowances: fillies & mares 5lb. Entries closed January 15, entries revealed January 20 (47 entries), forfeit stage February 18, five-day confirmation stage March 6, final declaration stage 10.15am March 10.
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¦ "one to jump" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "ONE TO JUMP" 2002/3 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-Le
Roi Miguel (FR) & Isio (FR)
¦ "the rook" ¦:¬»- Forty-seven horses were entered for the Arkle. The
race has always been a fiercely-contested event and Pendle (winner of the race in
1972), Canasta Lad (1974), Alverton (1978), Clayside (1981), Bob's Line
(1984), Waterloo Boy (1989) Remittance Man (1991), Klairon Davis
(1995), Flagship Uberalles (1999) and Moscow Flyer (last year) confirms
that the race invariably throws up a useful winner. I have managed to whittle
the field down to the following possibles:
|
Adamant Approach -
Very unlucky not to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle exactly a year ago,
Adamant Approach has made a fair transition to steeplechasing, disappointing
on his debut at Wexford before cruising home in a similar event at
Punchestown at the end of December. I am worried about the form of the
stable, however we know this is a class act if he performs on the day and I
believe he merits close inspection in this lineup; |
|
Alexander Millenium -
Seems very odd to put up a horse as a candidate for this race, who at the
time of writing hasn't actually run over obstacles in public. However,
trainer Willie Mullins has made no secret of the high regard he holds for
this horse and at the time I write this, he is due to make his debut over
obstacles. Were he to win that and line up, I would have to respect his
presence, despite his lack of experience; |
|
Azertyuiop (FR)
- Ever
since joining Paul Nichols from Guillame Macaire's yard in France, I have
always thought that had the potential to make an impact over fences and
there is no doubt that he has done this in winning all of his starts this
season, most recently when scooting home at Wincanton. I must profess
though that I have always had a nagging doubt about him...that "too
good to be true" feeling whenever I hear pundits comment about his
performance. I think it's because over hurdles he won soft races
impressively but was beaten when the pressure was on and I'm tempted to
question his resolution if the chips were down in this fiercely-competitive
heat. I'm also not convinces that the undulations of Cheltenham necessarily
bring out the best in him and I believe his worst performance this season
was here over course and distance when I felt he should have pulled away far
more easily from a legless Golden Alpha than he actually managed to on the
day. He may well win but I don't share the enthusiasm of others; |
|
Epervier D'Or (FR)
-
Looked really promising early on in the season, however seems to have gone
off the boil and may have had enough for this season. Time is on his side; |
|
Farmer Jack -
Progressive novice who lost no caste last time out in defeat behind Tarxien
at Sandown. Definitely one to consider as the pattern of the race suits his
style of running ideally. Will he be good enough to capitalise?; |
|
Hand Inn Hand -
Hasn't looked back since being given the perfect introduction to fencing
(some today would call it "non-trying"...I disagree) and has
rattled off a hat-trick of wins, most recently when making all at Kempton
last month. Improving all the time and merits the highest consideration
although he may be best suited to run over further at this level; |
|
Impek (FR)
- Has always
been held in the highest regard by former trainer François Doumen and
present trainer Henrietta Knight and has looked good in remaining unbeaten
this term, most recently when showing a fine turn of foot to beat Le Roi
Miguel at Sandown. He is temperamental (he causes trouble at the start) but
there's nothing wrong with having character. I'm certain he will give his
supporters a good run for their money; |
|
Isio (FR) - Untested
at this level, however has looked impressive in winning minor events this
season at Kempton, Doncaster and Huntingdon. Goes into the race having not
shown his hand which might be an advantage... time will tell; |
|
Le Roi Miguel (FR) -
Fascinates me as I suspect a lot of punters have probably dismissed him as a
result of his defeat by Impek last time out at Sandown. I'm surprised about
this as anyone who remembers how useful a juvenile hurdler he was will no
doubt remember how talented he was. It's also worth noting that had Ruby
Walsh ridden with more constraint rather than kicking for home after the
pond, it's conceivable he might even have won that day. Probably will go
into this race totally unconsidered, however his entries at the Festival are
few and far between and should he line up, connections clearly will believe
his is capable of giving good account of himself...a view I happen to share; |
|
Regal Exit - Need all
of Richard Guest's strength to get him home at Doncaster at the end of last
month, a statement which probably accurately reflects his chance in this
field; |
|
Stage Affair (USA) -
Only really gets a mention because of his excellent form over hurdles (5th
to Istabraq in the 2000 Champion Hurdle). His form over fences, whilst
encouraging does not appear to be good enough; |
|
Vol Solitaire -
Useful juvenile hurdler from last season who is developing into an equally
useful novice chaser. Has looked good when winning four of his six starts
including his last start at Kelso at the end of last month. However, he has
looked suspect at this level. He will need to be clean and accurate to have
any chance of success, however definitely warrants each-way consideration. |
¦"OUR VERDICT" ¦:¬»- In
many people's eyes, Azertyuiop is the banker of the meeting...however, I seem to
remember people saying the same thing about him when he was well-fancied for the
Champion Hurdle, and when push came to shove, his response was limited and
disappointing. I can understand why people were impressed with him at Wincanton
last time out, however I do think he should have beaten Golden Alpha (who tied
up to a walk on the run-in) with more authority here the time before and
therefore I'm prepared to take him on here and instead suggest stablemate Le Roi
Miguel who might have beaten Impek if more restraint had been exercised last
time out. At around odds of 9/1 he is an attractive each-way alternative as is
Hand Inn Hand who is improving with every run and has a good chance of getting
into the frame.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»- Le
Roi Miguel
¦ 2nd Place? ¦:¬»- Hand Inn Hand
¦ 3rd Place? ¦:¬»-Farmer Jack
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-Azertyuiop
|¯¯iii^¯CHELTENHAM¯¯|¯¯¯»- 3:15 THE CHAMPION HURDLE - [Sponsored by Smurfits]2miles~½f £300,000 - Grade 1, Class A, Showcase Race, Tuesday, March 11, 2003, £300,000 total prize fund, two miles and about half a furlong for four-year-olds and upwards. Weights: 4yo: 11st 6lb; 5yo and up: 12st; fillies and mares allowance 5lb. Entries closed January 8 (44 entries), entries released January 13, forfeit stage February 18, £15,000 supplementary entry stage March 6, five-day confirmation stage March 6, final declaration stage 10.15am March 10.
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¦ "the rook" ¦:¬»- The Istabraq era is now over and now is the
opportunity for another horse to follow in the footsteps of Hattons Grace
(1949-51), Sir Ken (1952-4), Persian War (1968-70), Bula (1970-71), Sea Pigeon
(1980-81), Dawn Run (1984), See You Then (1985-87) and Istabraq
(1999-2001). There are currently 44 entries for this season's renewal of the Smurfit Champion Hurdle, which includes
horses trained in Ireland as well as two each from France and Germany. Its an unusual mix but
doesn't have that much strength in depth and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that the
supplementary entry system at the five day stage may be used for the first time here.
Here's my thoughts on this year's possibles;
|
Adamant
Approach, trained by Willie Mullins __
Probably was on many punters list for the Arkle after an impressive win at Punchestown
until the demise of Davenport Milenium... He does though have some solid hurdles
form from last year and if he retains the speed to be competitive, could run well here at a nice price. |
|
Balapour, trained by Oliver
Brady in Ireland __ Balapour has run well in defeat this term against some of Ireland's best hurdlers, however he
hasn't really ever looked liked toppling them and although a fast pace will suit, he will do well to make the frame. |
|
Bob What, trained by Paddy
Mullins in Ireland __Doesn't appear to be good enough on all known form, however his 1 ½ lengths
second to Intersky Falcon in the John James McManus Memorial Hurdle [gr. 2] on a fast surface could may some interested in him given similar conditions on the day. |
|
Copeland, trained by Martin Pipe __ Connections have
sussed the best way to get the best out of this temperamental character... He is definitely best by Had an impossible task in the Tote Gold Trophy, but having looked disinterested made smooth progress up the straight to be just behind the leaders two out.. eased when beaten Copeland will improved significantly on this and should noted particularly if connections enter him in a pattern race before Cheltenham... He is beginning to look interesting there at eachway odds. |
|
Davenport Milenium, trained by Willie
Mullins in Ireland __ Misses the race due to injury.. a pity as he had sound
claims here. |
|
Epitre (FR), trained by Milton Harris __
Although Epitre was Group class on the flat in France he has so far, failed to translate that ability to obstacles and it will be a big surprise if he managed to get competitive [I wouldnt give up on him however... far too good a flat horse to do that.. this however
isn't his grade]. |
|
Flame Creek, trained by
Noel Chance _ Its very difficult to knock a horse that has won five of his six starts ... however its fair to say that
despite that impressive record, he doesn't quite grab the imagination, as say some of these rivals will... That is probably very misleading as he proved when landing the Red Square Vodka Champion Hurdle Trial [gr. 2]... He loves a strong gallop and after fluffing the second last, stayed on very
strongly to win by 13lengths... He doesn't strike me as the type to shirk a battle and he may be a far more
potent threat than he is being given credit for. |
|
Gianluca, trained by Charles
Egerton_... Oh Charlie... really!!!... nice horse... just not in this
league. |
|
Holy Orders, trained by Willie
Mullins in Ireland _ I'd be prepared to take this horse seriously if he ever translated his
excellent flat form to obstacles... however he has failed to do so in three starts this term and is proving expensive to follow...his
salivation might be if the ground was very quick, where he may well be capable
of popping in a place... to many "ifs" realistically though. |
|
Hors La Loi III (FR), trained by James Fanshawe _ I'm surprised the reigning championing is being so readily dismissed, seemingly because of a below par effort behind
Rhinestone Cowboy last time out... He was travelling very sweetly when falling two out in the Victor Chandler Bula Hurdle (Class A) Grade 2, and has since been asked for run over two tight tracks which historically
have never brought the best out of him. Back at Cheltenham at the Festival, [where he has only been beaten by Istabraq], he is far more imposing and dismissing the chance of a bold bid [after the warning in the Bula Hurdle] is in my
view very unwise. |
|
Iberus (GER), trained by Martin Pipe _ Very difficult to
gauge, however he was listed class on the level when trained by Peter Schiergen and his third in the Derby Italiano '01 - Yoga (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies) behind
Falbrav and Mordshi, as well as wins in the Excelsior Hotel Ernst-Meile (Listed) at
Köln in May '02, and Muller Brot-Riemer Meile (Listed) (3yo+) at Munich in June '02, prove he still retains ability. I dont
expect him to run, [especially after disappointing on his debut at Plumpton],
but may be worth following in novice company during the remainder of the
season. |
|
In Contrast, trained by Philip
Hobbs _ Useful novice hurdler from last season who has run well in defeat in
differing grades of company. The race might be run to suit him, however the
Champion isn't usually won by a horse with form figures like his going into
the race. |
|
Intersky Falcon, trained by Jonjo
O'Neill _ The first string to Jonjo O'Neill's bow, who has continued his upward
progression from the novice ranks midway through last season, through
handicaps to winning in graded company, most recently when winning the
Christmas hurdle at Kempton in December. Clearly is talented and worthy of
the highest consideration, however I was fascinated by the sight of him
attempting to pull himself up approaching the last at Kempton, having
believed he'd done enough. He will need to be far more focused to win a
Champion Hurdle. I also wonder how he would react if one of his rivals had
the tactical awareness to challenge wide of him. |
|
Landing Light, trained by Nicky
Henderson _Very difficult to evaluate his claims as you can argue he has a very good
chance judged on his performances of last season, however those who watched
him show no interest behind Barracuda at Ascot will be far less enthusiastic
about his chances. Connections have clearly taken the view that his best
chances this year are to freshen him up and rekindle his enthusiasm for the
game. If it happens to work, it will be interesting especially as this
should be run to suit. However, it is a big "If". |
|
Laveron, trained by François
Doumen in France _ The current French Champion Hurdler is far superior to the horse British punters last saw finishing well behind Galileo at Kempton. He had conditions ideally to suit in France and took full advantage winning the Grande Course de Haies de Printemps (Hurdle), Gras Savoye Hipcover - Prix la Barka (Hurdle)
[gr. 2], Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (Hurdle) [gr. 1], where he beat Vic Toto by 1½lengths, and most
recently the Grand Prix d'Automne [gr. 1] , [all at Auteuil] where he beat Tiger Groom by a length. He revels in soft/heavy ground, and could be a major player given those
conditions.. his potency is diminishes if the conditions are faster. |
|
Like-A-Butterly, trained by Christy
Roche in Ireland _
I've always had time for this mare, though she did break the hearts of many
punters when just out-battling Limestone Lad to land the Irish Champion
Hurdle on her reappearance. She has had a very light campaign, possibly too
light, however she is one of the few in this race to have that touch of
class that wins this race and given her ground, I'm sure she'll give a good
account of herself. |
|
Marble Arch, trained by Hughie
Morrison_
Last year's 2nd has hardly advertised the form this season, however that
probably was almost certainly because he has not yet raced on the decent
ground he requires. He has proven though (when winning on the all-weather at
Lingfield) that given his conditions, he is capable of giving a good account
of himself and the going will have a huge say in his chances of success. |
|
Puntal (FR), trained by Martin
Pipe _
Although he did show good form during the summer, and did win last time at
Kempton, Puntal does appear to have a bit to find in this company and his
aggressive front-running tactics invariably leave him vulnerable to strong
finishers. |
|
Rhinestone Cowboy, trained by Jonjo O'Neill __ Exceptionally talented novice..
however I'm not sure.... There is no doubt that he proved he has the potential to win this race when sauntering away from
Thisthatandtother at Wincanton last time out, however I do think the main racing media need to be careful about sucking punters into believing that this horse is the real deal....
Dont get me wrong, I have no doubt that he is a horse of immense potential, however what did he actually achieve on Saturday.
Going into the race we knew that he was better than Thisthatandtother [although he hadn't actually proven it on the course] and despite winning the race we know that tight tracks at Wincanton and Kempton dont bring out the best performances in Hor La Loi III... He had to give 4lbs aways and to be honest had no chance [I virtually said as much when previewing the race on Saturday...
Yes the manner in which he cruised to victory was good and Yes I believe he has a good chance in the Champion... however is that reflected in the current price?....
He wont be the only horse on the bridle, and I cant understand why he has never been asked a question in a competitive race...Surely if they want to win at Cheltenham they'd want to teach him to fight... Despite what some say, [that he was robbed in the Cheltenham bumper] he wasn't good enough to get past Pizzarro, who was far more green than him [ he hadn't been leading Rock of Gibraltar & co up the Ballydoyle gallop] even the great istabraq was asked to win his races... making him think that everything comes easily is a huge error of judgement... surprising especially as hails from such a shrewd operation.
If you aren't already on you will be taking around 5/2 on a horse that never has been asked to battle over obstacles... remember that saying ... "all that glitters isn't always gold"... even if he gets the nod, caution is advised |
|
Rooster Booster, trained by Philip
Hobbs _ The form book suggests that he is vastly improved this season and in winning
the Bula hurdle, he certainly gave notice that he could win a race of this
calibre...despite this, I can't help but be sceptical...maybe it's because
of the way he was so readily disposed of last season...or maybe it's because
I question the value of his form. His win at Cheltenham in November
definitely was a good effort , however having seen two of the major handicap
hurdles go to Ireland with horses who have some form lines with him having
finished well behind on both occasions and the only other test of him form,
having resulted in a novice running away with our richest handicap hurdle, I
can't help but take the view that as good as his efforts are, he didn't have
to be quite as good as some pundits think that he is to have posted those
efforts because that's the only way I can justify to my own mind the level
of improvement shown this season. Naturally, the form book suggests he is
one for the short lists, however I am struggling to decide where he finishes
in this lineup...time will tell where I put him. |
|
Santenay (FR)_ trained by Paul Nicholls.
Ran an excellent race behind Intersky Falcon at Kempton at Christmas and
probably deserves to have a go here, however his form suggests that he has
it all to do here. |
|
Scolardy, trained by Willie
Mullins in Ireland _
The stats do not speak favourably for Scolardy, last season's winner of the
JCB Triumph Hurdle and he does hail from a stable struggling for
consistency. He did look good when slamming New Hall by 11 lengths last term
and might just post a respectable effort without being good enough to get in
that vital blow. |
|
Scottish Memories, trained by Noel
Meade in Ireland _
Has had a fair second season over hurdles, winning a conditions event at
Down Royal as well as running creditably in defeat behind Limestone Lad in
the Hattons Grace hurdle at Fairyhouse and Like-A-Butterfly in the Irish
Champion Hurdle. Ran well at the meeting last season and may well do the
same here but has plenty to find in my opinion. |
|
Self Defence, trained by Emma
Lavelle _ Formerly a useful middle-distance horse on the flat, Self Defense has shown
plenty of promise over his starts over obstacles, posting by far his best
effort when making Rooster Booster pull out all the stops to land the Agfa
hurdle (at the same time lending some weight to my view about Rooster
Booster's form). I don't for one second believe he will win this race,
however he's a nice horse from a progressive yard who deserves a bold effort
from this adventure. |
|
Welsh Border, trained by George
Prodromou _
I hope he jumps the first in front as at least then he may justify his
connections going to the trouble of entering him, however I sincerely hope
that connections ensure that Welsh Border lines up away from runners or well
enough away to avoid controversy as he could signal the death knell of this
kind of sporting entry should he cause trouble at the start, something he
has become synonymous with. |
|
Westender (FR) - trained by Martin Pipe.
Definitely is entitled to consideration in this lineup, having
finished third to flame creek, beaten by 3 ½ lengths here at the beginning
of January. He was tenderly handled that day and given that solid effort,
and the improved form shown by Flame Creek, you can see why connections have
left him in this event. A replication of some of his best efforts of last
term could see him post a good effort here.
|
As we highlighted before, there is [for the first time] a supplementary stage for this race we don’t know who may enter for sure,
we could only think of one candidate.
|
Never (FR) (10st
11lbs)- Surprised connections didn't consider the Champion Hurdle for him,
having won so impressively at Newbury in November before finishing a
respectable 3rd to Rooster Booster in the Bula Hurdle. Owner Sir Peter
O'Sullevan is as shrewd as they come so the fact that he has been aimed for
the County Hurdle may be a tip in itself ; |
¦"OUR VERDICT" ¦:¬»- D-Day
for those punters who have leapt onto the Rhinestone Cowboy bandwagon and to be
honest, the more you look at the lineup the more convincing the argument of
those who support him gets...I just can't support a horse who has never had the
gun put to his head over hurdles...or put it this way, would you rush out and
back Pizarro to win this at 2/1? ...I won't mind if he prevails, however the
current squally forecast gives hope that there may be enough juice in the ground
for Like-A-Butterfly (who probably ran a bit better than she was given credit
for in the Irish Champion Hurdle). She has a bit to find however she should have
come on for that run and I do believe she'll give you a good run for your money.
Rhinestone Cowboy and Intersky Falcon are obvious dangers as are Hors La Loi III
and Flame Creek who make plenty of appeal at each-way odds. If you're looking
for a huge surprise, then Laveron and Copeland would appear to be massive
prices...and may be worth a little interest.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»- Like-A-Butterfly
(each-way if you prefer)
¦ 2nd Place? ¦:¬»- Intersky Falcon
¦ 3rd Place? ¦:¬»-Hors La Loi III
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-Copeland (e/w)
|¯¯iv^¯CHELTENHAM¯¯|¯¯¯»- 4:00 William Hill National Hunt Handicap Steeple ch'3miles~½f £80,000 - Class A, Listed Race, 80,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 11, 2003, three miles & about half a furlong. For five-year-olds & upwards. Penalties: after February 22, 2003, a winner of a Class C steeple ch' 3lb; of a Class A or B steeple ch' 6lb. No penalty to be incurred by horses originally handicapped at or above 11st 10lb, and no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 10lb. Any horse rated above 155 shall initially be treated as having that rating and the highest weight allotted shall be 11st 10lb. Subsequently, the excess over 155 in any rating shall be added to the weight allotted to that horse without limitation to the highest weight to be carried. If no horse at 11st 10lb or above remains engaged at the time fixed for confirmation or is declared at the overnight stage, the weights shall be raised to 11st 10lb. Entries closed February 12 (92 entries), entries released February 17, weights revealed February 26. Five-day confirmation stage March 6, final declaration stage 10.15am, March 10. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Friday, February 14, 2003. May not include some overseas form.
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªt¯¯|¯the¯|¯post¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦ "one to jump" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "ONE TO JUMP" 2002/3 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-Iris
Bleu (FR), Horus, Bounce Back (USA), Chicuelo (FR), Historg (FR) & Jurançon
II (FR)
¦ "future winners" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "FUTURE WINNERS (N.H.)" - Our feature which notes horses to watch for follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-
Burlu (FR)
¦ "the rook" ¦:¬»- The William Hill Handicap is the premier
long-distance handicap over fences at the meeting. Ninety-two horses have been
entered this year including 18 from Ireland, 3 from France and 1 from Norway.
Obviously at this stage of proceedings, it's impossible for us to highlight
every single one of these entries, however here are a few we believe are worth
considering:
|
Foxchapel King (12st
2lbs) - Surprised connections are tilting for this rather than the Gold Cup
because his welter-burden gives him about as much chance as he would stand
there. He didn't disgrace himself behind Youlneverwalkalone last time out
at Leopardstown and would have to be respected if connections decide to take
up the engagement; |
|
Folly Pleasant (FR)
(11st 13lbs) - Creeping up the handicap as the result of good efforts in
defeat this season. A good 2nd to Behrajan last time out, however is yet to
win at this trip; |
|
La
Landiere
(FR)
(11st 10lbs) -
In the form of her life this season, she would have to be respected if she
chose to line up, however more likely to go for either the Cathcart Chase or
Gold Cup than this affair; |
|
Iris Bleu (FR)
(11st 8lbs) - Vastly improved this season having annihilated his field to
win the Agfa Diamond Chase at Sandown before two good runs in defeat behind
See More Business and Shotgun Willy. Probably still improving and
cannot be dismissed despite this welter burden; |
|
First Gold (FR) (11st
7lbs) - Quite sad that connections are contemplating this race instead of
the Gold Cup, especially as they have repeatedly stated that he has been
difficult to get back to peak fitness. Arguably, it's going to take a very
good performance (a Gold Cup performance!) to win off this sort of mark; |
|
Harbour Pilot (11st
7lbs) - Hasn't won since landing the Dr.P.J.Moriarty Novice Chase [gr. 1] in April '02, however he has posted solid efforts in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase Showcase Handicap [gr. 3], and the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup [gr. 1], where he finished 4lengths behind Beef or Salmon... He does have a habit of "missing" one out when placed under pressure, but still warrant consideration here. |
|
Royal Auclair (FR)
(11st 7lbs) - Royal Auclair is in the
grip of the handicapper, and is proving difficult to place, however he didn't run
too badly behind Valley Henry in the Aon Chase [gr. 2], perversely giving
4lbs to that rivals ... that wasn't a bad effort, however he needs to
improve here and isn't certain to stay; |
|
Stormez (FR) (11st
2lbs) - Has proved to be far more
shrewd a purchase than when some pundits originally suggested when getting
trounced on his first two starts in this country as a result of being given
an entry in last year's Champion on the strength of some useful performances
in France over hurdles. He has since shown that staying is his forte and has
been well placed by connections to win seven races this season over trips
between 2m~7½f and 4 miles. I believe his is being aimed for the 4-miler at
this meeting, however he probably wouldn't disgrace himself if he were
allowed to take his chance here instead; |
|
Ad Hoc (11st 0lbs) -
Has his first run over fences this season, having run well over the smaller
obstacles, most recently when 3rd to Stromness here at the end of December.
This should put him right for Aintree, however he may have a few pounds too
many to be competitive here; |
|
Poliantas
(FR)
(10st 13lbs) - Improving second season chaser who has only thrown in one
poor effort since joining Paul Nichols last time out when finishing 17
lengths behind Lady Cricket at Cheltenham in January. Might be open to
further improvement at this trip and is definitely one to consider; |
|
Bounce Back (USA)
(10st 12lbs) - Hasn't really shown anything since running away with the Attheraces Gold Cup Chase Showcase Handicap [gr. 3] at the end of last season, however we know that this is a good horse [from his exploits in France, as well as at Sandown] and his record suggests that he should improve in the spring.... finding the necessary improvement to win this
isn't guaranteed however; |
|
Youlneverwalkalone (10st 11lbs) - Finally starting to fulfill some of the promise shown over
hurdles in his youth, Youlneverwalkalone has looked good in winning over
this trip at Thurles in December and most recently at Leopardstown in
January where he stayed on under pressure to beat Foxchapel King. He hasn't
always convinced in a finish, however he is likely to appreciate the
near-certain strong gallop and must enter calculations; |
|
Go Roger Go (10st
9lbs) - Has returned to the racecourse having missed 18 months through
injury and has demonstrated that he still retains some ability. He would be
interesting if connections decided to race here, however his stamina over 2
miles 5 furlongs has to be taken on trust; |
|
Joss Naylor (10st
9lbs) - Certain to be on many pundits shortlist having won each of his three
starts over fences, most recently when just getting the better of a battle
of heads with Tarxien in January. Looks to be potentially well-treated and
definitely one that should be considered, however its' worth remembering
that this will be his most competitive assignment over fences to date, and
not the cakewalk he's had on a couple of occasions; |
|
Shamawan (10st 9lbs)
- Would be very interesting if he lined up as you could argue that he posted
his best ever performance last time out over 2m 5f here behind Lady Cricket
in January. It's possible that he is open to a bit more improvement at this
sort of trip and the likely strong pace of the race looks guaranteed to suit
his style of running...interesting; |
|
Whitenzo (FR) (10st
9lbs) - If he replicated his Hennessey Gold Cup form, you'd have to consider
him here off of this weight, however he keeps blundering himself out of
contention and you wouldn't have thought this sort of race was going to suit
him.; |
|
Chicuelo (FR) (10st
7lbs) - Has looked good when the pressure wasn't applied this season in
winning at Market Rasen, Ascot and Huntingdon, however has twice jumped
poorly when upped in grade and you would be concerned that the same may
happen here where his jumping will be tested straight from flagfall; |
|
Hermes III (FR) (10st
7lbs)- Has shown good form in his two starts over fences in this country,
cruising home at Sandown in December before finishing a good 3rd to Lady
Cricket and Shamawan at Cheltenham in January. Unproven at this trip,
however has done nothing to suggest it isn't in his compass; |
|
Stormyfairweather
(10st 5lbs) - It's asking a lot of this horse to win this having not races
for 1042 days, however he might just drop you a subtle hint regarding his
chances of winning at Aintree in a few weeks time; |
|
Burlu (FR) (10st 1lb)
- Another Grand National entrant who hasn't raced for a year, Burlu was a
useful claimer in France who occasioned threw in a good effort in some of
the better handicap chases. A complete unknown quantity at this level,
however he would have to be respected if he ran, particularly if an
eye-catching jockey was booked for the ride. |
|
Innox (10st 0lbs) -
Very attractive form in Novice company would give him a chance here, however
he didn't offer out much encouragement at Sandown last time out; |
|
Killusty (9st 13lbs)
- Off the course for 746 days, but was a progressive novice chaser before
that, winning his last 4 starts. Another one with Grand National pretensions
who could catch your eye here; |
|
Haut Cercy (FR) (9st
12lbs) - Has been a model of consistency over fences, winning once [cheekily]
at Wincanton, before being outclassed by Keen Leader last time out at
Wetherby... He is nicely weighted here if he can get into a rhythm early on.. certainly worthy of eachway
consideration. |
|
Montreal (FR) (9st
12lbs) - Has always been held in high regards at Nicholashayne and looked good
when winning on his chasing debut at Exeter in December... He probably surpassed that behind La Landiere last time out in the Racing
Post Chse at
Kempton, however did race as though he didn't get home that day... this
trip may be stretching his stamina. |
|
Skippers Cleuch (9st
11lbs) - Former useful Novice Hurdler who has been nursed back to health by Lenny Lungo to win two of his three starts. He has yet to encounter opposition of this calibre and whilst he does have a chance, could be found wanting when push comes to shove; |
|
Nomadic (9st 10lbs) -
Former useful hurdler who has taken well to fences this season. Although he
has one once, over a shorter distance, he has been racing as though a
step-up in trip might be appreciated. His touch of class makes him worth
considering here; |
|
Another General (9st
9lbs)- A
useful Novice Hurdler last season, who has taken well to fences,
winning a Novice Chase at Doncaster in good
style. could get into this on a nice weight, however is he good enough? |
|
Historg (9st 9lbs) -
Slightly disappointing in his last two starts, behind La Landiere in the
Racing Post Chase at Kempton as well as Mini Sensation in Uttoxeter's Grand
National trial. He does though look well-treated off of this mark if he were
to recapture the form shown when winning over the new course here in
January. Wouldn't totally dismiss his chances; |
|
Jurançon II
(FR) (9st 6lbs) - - Lightly raced gelding who impressed when winning a
handicap hurdle here under top weight on his reappearance in November, before winning a novice chase at
Uttoxeter.. He probably is more to run in the Kim Muir or 4-miler, however
he might just creep into this on 10st 0lbs... Hmmm. |
|
Whereareyounow (9st
6lbs) - Joined Nigel Twiston Davies'
yards after being placed in Irish point-to-point and has creditably without
winning behind the likes of La Landiere, Joss Naylor and Keen Leader... Although
he is in here off of a nice weight, I cant help but wonder if he has the
speed to win this . |
¦"OUR VERDICT" ¦:¬»- A
very open race at this stage and as you can appreciate, it's conceivable that we
can put up selections here and have possibly none of them run. At the moment
though you are drawn to Joss Naylor who has been given a racing weight by the
handicapper and will probably take a lot of beating. Then again, with Keen
Leader still being a possible for the Gold Cup, it's conceivable that he could
switch and run instead in the SunAlliance Chase. Two less likely to do that are
Youlneverwalkalone and Ad Hoc. They are closely weighted with Joss Naylor and
even if he were to line up I wouldn't guarantee that he'd beat them. It
therefore makes sense to stick with them and at the moment, my preference would
be for Christie Roach's runner Just as I do think Youlneverwalkalone still has
that little bit more class than Ad Hoc. I just hope he doesn't capitulate at the
run-in or throw in the towel as he has done before over hurdles. Each-way
punters could do a lot worse than have an interest in Shamawan, trying this trip
for the first time or Historg who would probably be shorter in the market if it
wasn't for a disappointing effort last time out. I would certainly suggest
keeping an eye on Burlu particularly if Martin Pipe engages a decent jockey for
him.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»- Youlneverwalkalone
¦ 2nd Place? ¦:¬»- Ad Hoc
¦ 3rd Place? ¦:¬»-Historg (e/w)
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-Shamawan
|¯¯v^¯CHELTENHAM¯¯|¯¯¯»- 4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Steeple ch'3miles~½f £50,000 - Class B, Listed Race, 50,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, Tuesday, March 11, 2003, three miles & about half a furlong. For five-year-olds & upwards rated 0-140. Amateur riders. Penalties: after February 22, 2003, a winner of a Class A to C steeple ch' 4lb. No penalties to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb.Entries closed February 12 (111 entries), entries released February 17, weights revealed February 26. Five-day confirmation stage March 6, final declaration stage 10.15am, March 10. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including Friday, February 14 . May not include some overseas form.
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªt¯¯|¯the¯|¯post¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦ "one to jump" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "ONE TO JUMP" 2002/3 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-Montreal
(FR), Skippers Cleuch, Akarus (FR), Jurançon II (FR), Cèanannas Mor & Dark
Room
¦ "future winners" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "FUTURE WINNERS (N.H.)" - Our feature which notes horses to watch for follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-
Burlu (FR)
¦ "the rook" ¦:¬»- 110 horses have been entered for this amateur
rider's handicap chase, including 28 from Ireland and 1 from Norway. This is
over the same course and distance as the previous race, however seems to require
horses to stay a little further, probably because the pilots tend to go too
quickly. I'll be concentrating on the following:
|
Montifault (FR) (11st
8lbs) - Has won his last three completed starts, however has disappointed in
running before failing to complete on the last two occasions he has run. Not
sure what to make of him; |
|
Druids Glen (11st
6lbs) - Is having a good season, already posting two wins this term, as well
as running well in defeat behind Hand Inn Hand at Kempton last month...a
step up in trip will probably suit and I wouldnt rule out a bold showing |
|
Samuel Wilderspin
(11st 4lbs) - Has plenty of weight here, however he usually runs well here
which for that reason alone makes him worth considering; |
|
Burlu (FR) (11st
4lbs) - Grand National entrant who hasn't raced for a year, Burlu was a
useful claimer in France who occasioned threw in a good effort in some of
the better handicap chases. A complete unknown quantity at this level,
however he would have to be respected if he ran, particularly if an
eye-catching jockey was booked for the ride. |
|
Moor Lane (11st 2lbs)
- Has been very disappointing this season, failing to show the form that saw
him rise to the head of the Grand National market until winning easily last
time out. Appeals, but you do wonder whether there isn't something
handily-weighted here with a touch more class; |
|
Macs Gildoran (11st
2lbs) - Connections hold him in high
regard, however I find difficult to get enthused about a horse who has won
a [relatively open] handicap off of a mark of 121, even in this
company .
He does have a chance, but isn't really one for me. |
|
Montreal (FR) (11st
1lb) - Has always been held in high regards at Nicholashayne and looked good
when winning on his chasing debut at Exeter in December... He probably surpassed that behind La Landiere last time out in the Racing Post Chse at
Kempton, however did race as though he didn't get home that day... this
trip may be stretching his stamina. |
|
Royale De Vassy (FR)
(11st 0lbs) - Has frankly been very disappointing this season, however she
has posted some good efforts at this venue so has to be considered on that
basis; |
|
Skippers Cleuch (11st
0lbs) - Former useful Novice Hurdler who has been nursed back to health
by Lenny Lungo to win two of his three starts. He has yet to encounter
opposition of this calibre and whilst he does have a chance, could be found
wanting when push comes to shove; |
|
Rith Dubh (10st
13lbs) - Won last season's National Hunt Chase under an inspired ride from J. T. McNamara
who will probably ride him if he runs today. Isn't quite in
that sort of form this season however is difficult to leave out of my
deliberations; |
|
Timbera (10st 13lbs)
-Second to Rith Dubh in the National Hunt Chase here a year ago, Timbera has
failed to complete in two starts since that good effort. Would have to
be considered if you believe that he'll jump round here; |
|
Nomadic (10st 13lbs)
- Former useful hurdler who has taken well to fences this season.
Although he has one once, over a shorter distance, he has been racing as
though a step-up in trip might be appreciated. His touch of class makes him
worth considering here; |
|
Another General
(10st 12lbs) - A useful Novice Hurdler last season, who has taken well to
fences, winning a Novice Chase at Doncaster in good style. could get
into this on a nice weight, however is he good enough? |
|
Akarus (FR) (10st
12lbs) - Hasn't really cut much ice since coming from france, and may not yet have fully
acclimatised.. however make no mistake, his victory in the Prix RTL (Prix Montgomery) (Chase) (Handicap) at Auteuil in October was a
decent effort and there's every possibility that he may be better than he's currently showing
us. |
|
Be My Manager (10st 11lbs) - Once highly thought of by connections, Be My Manager has been
struggling to recapture his best form. He is though slowly coming down the
weights and would warrant consideration if still capable of showing better
form than of late; |
|
Tom Costalot (10st 11lbs) - Has been in good form against minor opposition, winning on
two occasions however he was well beaten last time and will need to
bounce back to be entertained here; |
|
Cornish Gale (10st 11lbs) - Very good novice chaser a couple of seasons ago. Cornish Gale
was pulled up early on in his comeback race at Newbury in February. His
fitness has to be taken on trust, however he certainly looked well and
warrants consideration for that reason alone; |
|
Mighty Montefalco
(10st 10lbs)- Having a good season thus far, and comes into this race having
won his last four starts. Hasn't really been tried against this level of
opposition therefore it's difficult to gauge whether he's reasonably treated
today (I suspect he is); |
|
Kemal's Council
(10st 9lbs) - A winner twice this
season before falling at the 6th in the Singer & Friedlander National
Trial Showcase Handicap (Chase) (Listed Race), won by his stablemate Mini
Sensation.. like Jurançon II, connections obviously believe that this type
of trip suits and is another strong candidate from Jackdaws Castle. |
|
Jurançon II (FR)
(10st 9lbs) - Lightly raced gelding who
impressed when winning a handicap hurdle here under top weight on his
reappearance in November, before winning a novice chase at Uttoxeter.. He probably
is more to run in the Kim Muir or 4-miler, however he would be
interesting in this should he run here instead |
|
Ballyamber (10st 9lbs) -Placed in all of his starts over
fences this season, however was beaten a distance by Barrow Drive in the Dr. P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase (Grade 1) at
Leopardstown last month... this is more his level, and he is not without a
chance despite still being a maiden, |
|
Whereareyounow (10st 9lbs) - Joined Nigel Twiston
Davies' yards after being placed in Irish point-to-point and has creditably
without winning behind the likes of La Landiere, Joss Naylor and Keen
Leader... Although he is in here off of
a nice weight, I cant help but wonder if he has the speed to win this . |
|
Ibis Rochelais (FR)
(10st 8lbs) - Progressive second season novice chaser who has been knocking
on the door on several occasions before winning over this trip at Sandown
last time out. The step up in trip appeared to bring about some improvement
and he could be well treated on what appears to be a fairly lenient mark; |
|
Spinofski (10st 6lbs)
- Finished 2nd to Ibis Rochelais at Sandown last time out. That was a good
effort (they came well clear of the 3rd placed horse) however he is creeping
up the weights whilst not winning. Something he hasn't done for a while; |
|
Last Option (10st
5lbs) - Morel likely to go for the Foxhunters, however he has been given a
"racing weight" and could be interesting; |
|
Cèanannas Mor (10st 5lbs)- Slightly disappointing this season and probably is difficult to
fancy on this season's form, however he did come 2nd twelve months ago and
it isn't the first time a good effort has followed a string of indifferent
ones; |
|
Coq Hardi Diamond
(10st 2lbs)- Owes me nothing else this season having been my selection
to land the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting which he
duly did. He has always threatened to win a decent handicap - now he has, a
race of this description is certainly within his compass; |
|
I Can Imagine (10st 2lbs) -
Former winner of the Paddy Power Chase, has been in good form this winter,
and beat all bar Hedgehunter in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last
time out... Is reasonably treated off of 116 here; |
|
Turn Two (10st
2lbs) - Son of Montelimar, who had shown promise on his debut in a 2m6f event at Galway in September, before winning a Beginners Chase at Naas in
February.. he is reasonably well treated here, though lacks some experience |
|
Putsometnby (10st 1lb) - Has improved since joining
Jonjo O'Neill and was very unlucky not to win last time out at Doncaster
when he fell at the last fence, with the race won. He'd cruised through from
the rear two out and was at length 10 lengths clear when clipping the top of
the last. The pace of the race should suit him and he could go well here. |
|
Tonoco (10st 1lb) -
Probably one of the few steeplechasers I can think of for whom tubing (being
tubed) has worked, he has well in all his starts this season, including a
win at Haydock in December; a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind
Barryscourt Lad, and a fair second last time out behind Paxford Jack again
at Haydock last month.. has a nice weight here and should give a good
account of himself . |
|
Killultagh Thunder (10st
1lbs )- Has had a good season over fences, finishing second in his first three
starts over fences, before falling 6 out in the Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase (Grade 3) won by
I'vehadit ... isn't badly treated here, however you'd like to have seen him win a race here. |
|
Pessimistic Dick
(10st 1lb) - Astutely placed by Huey Morrison to win four of his last five
starts. He could run here, however may be biting off a little bit more than
he can handle; |
|
Un Jour A Vassy (FR)
(9st 13lbs) - Has run well in three of his four starts this season, however
does give the impression that this trip is stretching his stamina; |
|
Dark Room (9st
11lbs) - One win in an ordinary novice chase at Market Rasen isn't exactly
the greatest recommendation for this race, however this horse showed a lot
of ability between the flags in Ireland last year, and its just possible a
step up in distance might bring about some improvement.. it'll need to. |
|
Borora King (9st 8lbs) - Impressive novice who has won his last two starts over fences
most recently at Fairyhouse in January... Connections were looking at some
of our long distance chases with him, so they clearly believe that he'll
stay this trip |
|
Falcon De Coteau (FR)
(9st 8lbs) - Totally out of form this season however he hails from a
particularly astute yard who will not send him here unless they are certain
he can do himself justice. |
¦"OUR VERDICT" ¦:¬»- As
things currently stand, Ibis Rochelais, Putsometnby, Moor Lane, Samuel
Wilderspin, Rith Dubh, Timbera, Burlu, Jurancon II, Kemal's Council and Çèanannas
Mor would head my list of possibles. The quirky but talented Rith Dubh and
Putsometnby give Jonjo O'Neill a particularly strong hand here and I would have
to be interested if they chose to line up. I have though always had a little bit
of time for Ibis Rochelais and now he has found winning form, it might be most
sensible to continue following him. As for the each-way selection, I wasn't sure
where Jurancon II was going to run at the festival, however this race and the
4-miler would seem to be ideal. He came pretty close to getting 1st choice and I
certainly wouldn't put you off having a little bit on at each-way odds. That
comment also applies to stablemate Burlu who must surely have begun pleasing
connections at home for him to have stood his ground in these competitive races.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»- Ibis
Rochelais
¦ 2nd Place? ¦:¬»- Jurancon II
¦ 3rd Place? ¦:¬»-Putsometnby
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-Burlu (e/w)
|¯¯vi^¯CHELTENHAM¯¯|¯¯¯»- 5:20 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)3miles~1½f £60,000 - Class A, Listed, Tuesday, March 11, 2003,3miles~1f 110yds, 60,000 total prize fund, five-year-olds and upwards which have either started, as defined in the Orders and Rules of racing, in a Pertemps Hurdle Race (Qualifier) since the start of the current season or any horses which were eliminated from a Qualifier, having declared to run at the overnight stage. (In the event of the abandonment of a qualifier, any horse which had been declared to run in that race at the overnight declaration stage, or any horse entered to run if the time of abandonment was prior to the overnight declaration stage, will be qualified to enter the Final). Penalties: after February 22, a winner of a Class D hurdle race 3lb; of a Class A to C hurdle race 6lb. No penalty to increase a horses's weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed Wednesday, February 12, 2003 (62 Entries), entries released Monday, February 17, weights released Wednesday, February 26
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªt¯¯|¯the¯|¯post¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦ "one to jump" ¦ ~~ Are there any horses from "ONE TO JUMP" 2002/3 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season?:¬»-Jurançon
II (FR), Tucacas (FR), Sudden Shock (GER) &Kerrigand (FR)
¦ "the rook" ¦:¬»- 62 horses have been entered for the final of the
Pertemps hurdle race qualifiers. The race is usually well contested and is one
of the few races at this trip which is strongly run from flagfall...Class and/or
stamina usually out. The leading contenders are as follows:
|
Iris's Gift (11st
12lbs) - Resolute galloper who grinds
his rivals into submission. Impressive when winning all five starts over
hurdles this season, particularly last time out at Haydock and is worthy of
consideration here - although he might have better claims at his optimum
trip of 3 miles in the Stayers Hurdle; |
|
Native Emperor (11st
11lbs) - Native Emperor is a progressive 7-year-Old, who was a distance back
in third behind Deano's Beeno and Baracouda in the Cantor Sport Long Walk
Hurdle [gr. 1], however is a fair bit better than a literal assessment would
imply, having been eased once beaten, and a better reflection of his chance
is his excellent second to Bacchanal at Newbury on Hennessy Cognac Gold cup
day. He isn't up to mixing it with the best yet, but is going to make a
lovely chaser in time; |
|
Tucacas (11st 10lbs)-
On her day, she is one of the better mares currently in training as
demonstrated by her win here in November. She cut very little ice on her
last engagement however will have been sweetened up with this or the Coral
Cup in mind. You have to respect her if connections allow her to take her
chance; |
|
Sudden Shock (GER)
(11st 9lbs) - Was a useful hurdler in his use in Germany and France and
proved last term [when finishing 2lengths behind It takes Time in the
Bet.Watch.Live Attheraces Hurdle] that he is capable of putting in a bold
run in this sort of company, however his overall form suggest that he needs
to improve to win this; |
|
Royal Emperor (11st 7lbs) - Similar profile to Iris's Gift in that he is a resolute
galloper who grinds rivals into submission. He is still on the upgrade if
his win on his last start at Haydock is anything to go by and is another one
of the top-weights that I believe warrants your consideration; |
|
Moss Harvey (11st
6lbs) - Rather disappointing over fences of late, however he was useful over
the smaller obstacles last term and wouldn't be that badly treated if he
were to recapture that form; |
|
Chopneyev (11st 5lbs)
- Fast improving novice who has stepped
up on some mediocre efforts last term to win three times this term including
winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Sandown before beating all bar the
well-weighted Korelo at Ascot last time out. Gives the impression that he
might prefer further, however the likely strong end-to-end gallop is sure to
play to his strengths; |
|
Ravenswood (11st 1lb) - Fast ground hurdler. Would run well here if he returned to the
sort of form shown at around this time a year ago. Conditions are though
imperative and I wouldn't want to entertain him unless I could guarantee
that conditions were ideal; |
|
Inching Closer (11st
0lbs)- Has had one run for Jonjo O'Neill winning on his reappearance at Haydock
at the beginning of February .. would have to be respected if he ran
here. |
|
Jack High (10st
9lbs)- Much improved this season over hurdles and simply ran away with a
qualifier for this final at Leopardstown over Christmas. This is harder and
it isn't clear whether or not he is capable of that sort of improvement; |
|
Kerrigand (FR) (10st
7lbs)- Is consistent although only has one win to show for it and is the
sort of horse you imagine is always there or thereabouts. That doesn't mean
he'll win; |
|
Effectual (10st 6lbs)
- Another horse who appears to be well-handicapped on his old form. A win in
an Egg & Spoon race hasn't quite convinced me that he could run well in
this company off of this sort og mark; |
|
Farinel (10st
6lbs)- Useful handicap hurdler who ran well behind Ravenswood at
Aintree in April... hasn't replicated that form since but has dropped a few
pounds in the weights, and would have to be respected should he line up
here. |
|
Creon (10st 6lbs)-
You won't have seen an easier winner of a race this season if you'd seen
how motionless Liam Cooper was on this animal in the Chepstow qualifier for
this race. Appears to be on a nice weight and is certain to attract plenty
of support; |
|
Jurançon II (FR)
(10st 6lbs)-Lightly raced gelding who
impressed when winning a handicap hurdle here under top weight on his
reappearance in November, before winning a novice chase at Uttoxeter.. He
probably is more likely to run in the Kim Muir or 4-miler, however he
is still relatively unexposed and the way this race is mapping up may suit
his style of running. |
|
Dubai Seven Stars
(10st 5lbs) - Has run creditably this season over hurdles without matching
the level of improvement shown on the flat during last summer. He has
however been laid out for this. therefore would have to be respected here; |
|
Chicago Bulls (10st 5lbs)-
Useful (on his day) staying handicapper who has finished in the money of 4
of his 5 starts this season. Should appreciate the strongly run race and
might run well despite being immediately obvious; |
|
Ballylusky (10st 4lbs) -
Looked early on in the season as though he could develop into a top-notch
handicapper particularly when winning a qualifier for this race at Market
Rasen before the end of last year. Whilst he hasn't entirely altered that
perception, the handicapper does appear to have stunted his progression; |
|
Keepatem (10st
0lbs) - Useful irish handicapper, who won the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown in
January ... seems to be reasonably treated here and is still relatively lightly raced... He is definitely worthy of consideration here. |
|
Best Grey (9st
10lbs)- I really like this ex-Italian trained grey who was a useful novice
hurdler 18 months ago before his career was interrupted due to injury. He
has slowly been coming to hand and a fair 2nd last time out does offer
comfort for possible each-way supporters; |
|
Patriarch (9st
10lbs)- Another useful novice who's career has been put on hold due to
injury. Some encouragement was offered on his reappearance but probably not
enough for him to be competitive. That said, the handicapper seems to have
given him a chance off of a mark of only 112; |
|
Miss Fara (FR) -
Thrown in on her old form, Miss Fara would be difficult to beat if this were
a flat race. Showed precious little on her only start this season and her
ability to show improvement has to be taken on trust; |
¦"OUR VERDICT" ¦:¬»- The
race surely centres around whether Jonjo O'Neill intends allow Iris's Gift to
take his chance here. Were he to do that, you imagine he would go very
close despite top weight, particularly as this resolute galloper will grind many
of these into submission. He wouldn't have yet attempted to give a useful horse
a lot of weight and whilst he wouldn't be far away if he ran, the presence of
Royal Emperor (who has a similar style of running) does slightly put me off. I'm
not suggesting he won't prevail (feel free to do him if that's your preferred
choice) however I do like the look of Keepatem at these weights who at current
odds, could look very attractive, especially if Iris's Gift were to defect. Of
the others, Creon would appeal if the heavens opened, whilst Dubai Seven
Star and Best Grey could run into a place if recapturing former
glories.
¦1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»- Keepatem
¦ 2nd Place? ¦:¬»- Iris's Gift
¦ 3rd Place? ¦:¬»-Creon
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-Dubai Seven Stars
|
|
