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Analysis & Selections by
der börsenspekulant
Whether it be
"the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er CHOICE), as well as
the next best runners (in our view, this can include any horses who could run well at eachway
odds). Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
HAMBURG-HORN
Sunday, July 7
¦ 1er. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> BMW White Turf Grand Prix von St.Moritz . Für 3-jährige und ältere Pferde (Distanz: Flachrennen - 1200 m 12000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬>Nine runners line up for the opener of this marathon twelve race card. Of these Areias; [who finished second on his most recent start over 1400m at Koeln, with Golden Gift (who reopposes here) back in eighth.], Just Time and Apolybont; [who were in good form at the end of last, but has yet to reproduce that this season], Oriental Queen; [who won at Dresden three weeks ago], and Rivaldo; [a creditable fifth on his last start at
Düsseldorf] make most appeal. Areias appears to have the best credentials and is my idea of the winner.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Areias,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Apolybont,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Rivaldo, (e/w)
¦ 2e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Preis der Hamburger Privatbankiers . Für 4-jährige und ältere Pferde. GAG -10 f.4j.u.ält. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 2800 m 13000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬>A test of stamina comes next. Maxxwell; [the winner of four of his last five races most recently over 2400 m at Bremen], Whoop of Victory; [the winner of three of his four starts , most recently over 2800 m at Baden-Baden], Quebo ; [the winner of three of his last five races], Szidane; [the winner of two of his last three starts] and Marbos; [the winner of two of his last four starts], make most appeal. Whoop of Victory is proven over this trip, and is probably the most open to further improvement and is preferred to Maxxwell
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Whoop of Victory,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬>Maxwell,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬>Szidane, (e/w)
¦ 3e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Mumm Cordon Rouge - Cup / N.L Für 3-jährige inländisch gezogene Pferde (Distanz: Flachrennen - 1200 m 50000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Eight runners line up for race three. You can make cases for most of these .... Soave, Baselga, Lady Lonsdale, and Bodyguard Of Spain were my "preferred". Soave has been in good form this term, and has improved with each start, culminating with a win at Bremen over 1600m two week ago. He is preferred to Baselga, [on the way back after having shown good form at the end of last term], and Bodyguard Of Spain.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Soave,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Baselga,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Bodyguard Of Spain
¦ 4e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Allianz -Pokal / Agl. II Für 4-jährige und ältere Pferde. GAG -20 f.4j.u.ält. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 2200 m 15000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬>Eleven runners line up for race four. Andersen, [who has finished second in his last three starts - most recently at Koeln, where he had Indian Star, (who reopposes) back in sixth], Anakin; [the winner of two of his last four starts], Tamitas, [who won on his reappearance at Koeln, but has since twice finished behind Andersen], Suenna; [the mount of Olivier Peslier, who comes here on the back of a decent-looking effort here at the beginning of the meeting] Arawak, [the winner of two of his last three starts, most recently at
Hoppegarten], Albprinz, the winner of his most recent start at Muelheim-Ruhr at the beginning of June], and Emperador, [who was just touched off twice in June - although he didn't run too well earlier at the meeting] appear to be the horses to concentrate on. Arawak's credentials look sound, however Andersen may be the best of these. I am reluctant to put up a horse with his form figures, however here's hoping that today is his day.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Andersen
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Arawak,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Suenna;
¦ 5e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Prix GALA / RQ-Rennen Für 3-jährige sieglose Pferde. Gew. 58.0 kg (Distanz: Flachrennen - 1800 m 10000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬>Fifteen runners have been declared for race five. Akebono, Daily Impact, Gaudeamus, Gem Fit, Isaria, Tannenschnippe, and So Royal, would appear to have the best form. I wouldnt get wildly excited about any of these, however I wouldnt be surprised if Akebono, [who chased home Soave who we've selected for an earlier race], and Daily Impact, [a good second on his last appearance behind Mukafaat at Baden-Baden]. That was only Daily Impact's second ever race and as he is probably open to more improvement than Akebono, he gets the vote.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Daily Impact,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Akebono,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Tannenschnippe, (e/w)
¦ 6e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> De Boer Zelte - Preis / Agl. I Für 4-jährige und ältere Pferde. GAG -28 f.4j.u.ält. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 1600 m 26000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Ten runners have been declared for race six. Whilst Bear King, [the winner of his last start at Baden-Baden at the end of May], Frisco Song, [second on his last two starts], Capital Secret; [who won over 1600m at Koeln two weeks ago], and Blueberry Forest, [a winner at Dresden three weeks ago] all have chances, this looks to be a good opportunity for Germany's leading rider Lennart Hammer-Hansen to get onto the scoresheet, courtesy of Grantley, who has won four of his last five starts, most recently at Koeln over 1850m in mid-June.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Grantley,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Bear King,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Frisco Song,
¦ 7e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Trakehner - Rennen / Agl. II Für 4-jährige und ältere Pferde. GAG -22 f.4j.u.ält. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 1600 m 15000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Lennart Hammer-Hansen has another good opportunity of adding to his haul this season in the next, as his mount Larkin, [who last time out had finished fourth behind Diamantsturm at Koeln over 1400m], has been running consistently well this year, winning similar events at Koeln in April and March of this year. He probably has Lusty Boy and Asta Luego, [whop finished third and fifth respectively behind Capital Secret on their latest start at Koeln], plus Spontano, [placed on his last two starts] and Roar Blizzard, [placed on three of his last five starts] to worry about .... they don't appear to be good enough
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Larkin,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Asta Luego,
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Spontano,
¦ 8e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> 133. Deutsches Derby {gr.1} Für 3-jährige Hengste und Stuten , Gew. 58.0 kg. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 2400 m 400000 Euro)
(1) Salve Regina, Trained by - Andreas Schütz
(2) Next Desert, Trained by - Andreas Schütz
(3) Mamool, Trained by - Saeed bin Suroor
(4) Belcore, Trained by - Horst Steinmetz
(5) Tomori (USA), Trained by - Andreas Schütz
(6) Levirat, Trained by - Mario Hofer
(7) Whisperer, Trained by - Hans Blume
(8) Orfisio, Trained by - Andreas Löwe
(9) Ammonias, Trained by - Peter Schiergen
(10) Auenteufel, Trained by - Uwe Ostmann
(11) Irulan , Trained by - Peter Schiergen
(12) Calcio, Trained by - Mario Hofer
(13) Epalo, Trained by - Andreas Schütz
(14) Willingly, Trained by - Michael Trybuhl
(15) Nicaragua, Trained by - Peter Schiergen
(16) Mendosino, Trained by - Peter Schiergen
(17) Ifag Mannheim, Trained by - Wolfgang Figge
(18) Los Sainos, Trained by - Andreas Löwe
(19) Sergeant Pepper, Trained by - Hans Blume
(20) Sederic, Trained by - Andreas Wöhler
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Here are my thoughts on the runners & riders for the big race;
(1) Salve Regina, - Unbeaten going into this race, this filly was a game winner of the Ostermann Preis der Diana (Group 1) [The German Oaks], on her last start, from Midnight Angel, and Guadalupe, [who had previously landed the Oaks d'Italia (Group 1)]. Ground conditions should suit and she should give a good account of herself.
(2) Next Desert - Will probably go off the favourite here, havening won four of this last five starts, the most recent was an easy win in the Oppenheim-Union-Rennen (Group 2) at Koeln over 2200m. His only recent defeat was at the hands of Dupont in the German 2000 Guineas, and both he and Salve Regina give trainer Andreas Schütz, a particularly strong hand in the Derby.
(3) Mamool, - The winner of the Queen's Vase (Group 3) over 3200 m on his last start. Mamool showed useful form as a juvenile when trained by David Loder. Formlines through Sholokhov, who beat him in the Gran Criterium (Group 1) at San Siro at the backend of last term suggest that he isn't without a chance here
(4) Belcore, - An easy winner of the Grosser Muller Brot-Preis (Group 2) on his last start over 2200m. If he can handle the ground, he has a sound chance.
(5) Tomori (USA) - Tomori finished fourth to Salve Regina in the Ostermann Preis der Diana (Group 1) on her last start, and needs to improve on that to get competitive here.
(6) Levirat, - Levirat has finished second on all of his three starts thus far, most recently when finishing a well-beaten second to Next Desert in the in the Oppenheim-Union-Rennen (Group 2) at Koeln... need to improve.
(7) Whisperer, - Whisperer has finished behind Next Desert and Belcore on his last three starts... the step up in trip will need to bring out significant improvement to score here.
(8) Orfisio, - Orfisio landed a 2200m event at Dresden three weeks ago, however has been soundly beaten by Next Desert in the German 2000 Guineas, and is likely to struggle here.
(9) Ammonias, - Johnny Murtagh's mount is interesting having taken a less conventional route to this affair. He has won three of his last four starts, most recently when failing by 1-1/4 lengths to withhold Maranilla's late thrust in the Walther J Jacobs-Rennen (Group 3) at Bremen... It doesn't look anywhere good enough frankly.
(10) Auenteufel, - Auenteufel finished behind Next Desert and Levirat in the Oppenheim-Union-Rennen (Group 2) on his last start and will need to have improved to reverse form here.
(11) Irulan, - Made a lot of the running, when finished seventh behind Rakti and Ballingarry in the Derby Italiano (Group 1) on his latest start. He'd previously won a listed race at Koeln, and may have better credentials than is immediately obvious.
(12) Calcio, - Well-beaten behind Belcore on his most recent start and has plenty to do here
(13) Epalo, - Finished behind Orfisio on his latest start, however he may not have been suited by the step back and trip.... could plod on into a decent place.
(14) Willingly, - Was in good form over shorter distance a few months ago, but was soundly beaten by Next Desert last time out over 2200m ... unlikely to appreciate the extra distance here.
(15) Nicaragua, - Kieran Fallon's mount is blinkered for the first time here. Has a similar profile to Willingly in so much as he was in good form over shorter distance a few months ago, but was soundly beaten by Next Desert last time out over 2200m. He is though far more likely to appreciate this trip and could be cajoled into a place.
(16) Mendosino - The mount of Lennart Hammer-Hansen. Mendosino finished 13lengths behind Next Desert in the Oppenheim-Union-Rennen (Group 2) at Koeln, and looks up against it here.
(17) Ifag Mannheim, - The bare form suggests that Ifag Mannheim has plenty to do - his third to Belfore in the Grosser Muller Brot-Preis (Group 2) gives that impression. It is worth bearing in mind that this horse hasn't tried this trip, but gives the impression that it may suit him; so don't be surprised if he went well at a nice price
(18) Los Sainos, - Well beaten behind three of his rivals here and is going to struggle
(19) Sergeant Pepper, - Didnt run too badly when finishing third to Marinilla in the Fruhjahrspreis des Bankhauses Metzler - Stadtrat Albert von Metzler-Rennen (Group 3) last time out, but that doesn't appear to be good enough to land this prize.
(20) Sederic, - Ed Pedroza is reunited with Sederic. He is the last person to persuade him to put his head in front where it matters. He will need to be at his most persuasive, if this son of the sire Raintrap is to oblige a third to Marinilla in the Walther J Jacobs-Rennen (Group 3) isn't quite good enough.
¦ SUMMARY ¦:¬> Whilst Mamool will probably try to draw the sting out of these... however doing that to Group 3 horses, and genuinely Group 1 horses are as different as chalk and cheese. In Salve Regina and Next Desert, he meets two horses up to that standard and I think he may be found wanting where it matters most. I doubt there is much to choose between Salve Regina and Next Desert and I expect one of these to land the prize. I intend to stay loyal to Ostermann Preis der Diana winner Salve Regina. Auenteufel, Ifag Mannheim, and Epalo appeal as horses that should be staying on at the death and could run into a place
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Salve Regina,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬>Next Desert
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Ifag Mannheim, (e/w)
¦ 9e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Preis der BHF - Bank / Stutenrennen Für 3-jährige Stuten , Gew. 55.0 kg (Distanz: Flachrennen - 2200 m 17500 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Three runners appeal in race nine - Sun Over Me; [last seen out behind Danseuse d'Etoile at Longchamp last September - had shown good form before that effort], Kastoria; [who won a similar event at Koeln on her latest start], and Uriah [who has won her only race at Krefeld over 2350m, beating Aqua Pura and Hikaru - respectable performers in the context of this race]. Sun Over Me is interesting however Uriah may be useful and is the safer percentage call.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Uriah
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Kastoria
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Sun Over Me.
¦ 10e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Bruno Schütz - Memorial / L Für 3-jährige Pferde. Gew. 56.0 kg. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 2400 m 41000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Twelve runners line up for race ten - Water Quirl, [who has won two of her last three starts, most recently the Rennen um den Jubiläumspreis ' Anni Aqua ' / Agl. III at Krefeld 3 weeks ago], Arucas, [who beat
Deutsches-Derby entrant Sergeant Pepper at Hoppegarten last time out], and Mukafaat; [who has progressed with each race, culminating in two wins at Baden-Baden and more recently at Ostend], make most appeal. Water Quirl is just preferred.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Water Quirl,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Mukafaat;
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬> Arucas,
¦ 11e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Preis des Kempinski Hotel Atlantic Hamburg / Agl. III. Für 3-jährige und ältere Pferde. GAG -17 f.3j., -12 f.4j.u.ält. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 1600 m 13000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> The penultimate race - run over a mile. Of the twelve who line up; Tyberior, El Amigo, Le Gris, Rosco, Liendo, Dolce, and Kayo are in my view, the horses to concentrate on. El Amigo, the winner of his last two starts at
Muelheim-Ruhr, must go well, however Le Gris, and Kayo who ran well on the opening day of this meeting, and Rosco [a good third behind Dressman at the end of June], are all entitled to go close.... I will stick with El Amigo, however Le Gris could go well at eachway odds
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> El Amigo,
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬> Le Gris, (e/w)
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬>Kayo
¦ 12e. HAMBURG-HORN ¦¬:> Bosch - Preis / Agl. III. Für 4-jährige und ältere Pferde. GAG -10 f.4j.u.ält. (Distanz: Flachrennen - 2200 m 13000 Euro)
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¦ der börsenspekulant ¦:¬> Top Set who won the Preis der My Car-Autovermietung / Agl. III earlier at this meeting bids to follow up in the last. Only Ongo, [a son of Acatenango, who won at Baden-Baden at the end of May], and Serratus [placed in his last five starts], make any real appeal. Top Set should be good enough to land this weak race.
¦ 1 WAHL¹ ¦:¬> Top Set
¦ 2 Wahl² ¦:¬>Ongo
¦ 3 Wahl³ ¦:¬>Serratus, (e/w)
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