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EBOR MEETING by The Flatman and The 4Long Pole,
THE EBOR MEETING AT YORK
'The Knavesmire', as York is known, has staged Flat racing since 1731 and is undoubtedly the top Flat horseracing venue in the north of England, 'the Ascot of the North' is commonly used to described this meeting. It is a left handed level 'horseshoe' of two miles (it doesn't have a round course) with a straight track of six furlongs, and a chute almost opposite where the seven furlong races are held
York stages numerous top quality races, with the highlight being the Ebor meeting in August. The fixture is one of the main events in the racing calendar and stages Flat racing of the highest calibre. Major races at the meeting include the International Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks, the Gimcrack and the Ebor itself, one of the top handicaps of the year.
DAY THREE OF THE EBOR MEETING
by
The Flatman and The 4Long Pole
EBOR MEETING (YORK)
Thursday 24th August
2:05 EBF Galtres Stakes Class A (Listed Race) £40000 added, 3yo plus fillies, 1m 3f 195yds, penalty £28486.25, 13 runners.
The Flat Man ~ Not an easy race to start proceedings - a host of lightly raced fillies open to improvement with an Irish challenge thrown in. Firecrest, Clipper, Fantasia Girl (Irish), Hiddnah, Metronome, Miss Lorilaw and New Assembly should dominate. I take the consistent Hiddnah to appreciate this step up in trip (made a most promising reappearance recently) and show significant improvement and take this at the main expense of Fantasia Girl who is also open to improvement but has plenty to find. I suggest the selection may have too much pace for the likes of Clipper, Metronome, Firecrest and New Assembly who may need further still to show their best form.
No*1 Choice ~ Hiddnah
(E/W) Alt. ~ Miss Lorilaw
The 4Long Pole ~Fantasia Girl, Firecrest, Metronome, Farfala, Miss Lorilaw, New Assembly, Hiddnah, Unseeded, and Cape Grace, all have claims in a competitive event. On face value their isn't really that much to choose between them and I think I would be looking for the horses open to improvement for a selection. There is no obvious front-runner so I hope it doesn't become tactical. Assuming it doesn't I think Fantasia Girl satisfies the criteria, a typical late maturer from the John Oxx camp, she is progressing with her races, and suggested Fantasia Girl suggested that improvement at this trip was likely when winning over 10 furlongs at the Curragh where she beat beating Mythological by 1/2l. The fact that the form has since been franked by the third is another boost. I'll take her to score from the dangerous looking improver Metronome
No*1 Choice ~ Fantasia Girl
(E/W) Alt. ~ Metronome
LONG*SHOT ~ Helen's Day
2:35 Peugeot Lowther Stakes Class A (Group 2) £80000 added, 2yo only fillies, 6f, penalty £46400.00, 7 runners.
The Flat Man ~ Looks to rest between Enthused, Romantic Myth and Khulan. Romantic Myth may not appreciate a sixth furlong in view of the considerable pace she shows over the minimum trip. So, it appears to rest with Enthused (hugely impressive last time) who has the form in the book and Khulan who falls into the "could be anything" category after her maiden victory at Newmarket and who is open to significant improvement. I suspect that Enthused will be held up again and ridden with confidence but may be caught out by Khulan who is likely to go for home somewhat earlier and may not be reeled in.
No*1 Choice ~ Khulan
(E/W) Alt. ~
The 4Long Pole ~ I also cant see past Enthused, Romantic Myth and Khulan in the second... and I have to agree that despite Enthused's impressive success on King George day at Ascot, those who watched Khulan 'glide effortlessly' to success must like me feel that this horse may be a bit special, Having made a similar comment about Prince Alex yesterday, I'd hate myself if I ignore that impression and went against her... Enthused will trot up now!!!
No*1 Choice ~ Khulan [R*ecommended]
(E/W) Alt. ~
3:10 Bradford & Bingley Rated Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B £40000 added, 3yo plus, 7f 202yds, penalty £27898.00, 16 runners.
The Flat Man ~ Tightly knit handicap. Pythios, John Ferneley, Persiano, Tony Tie, Adobe and Red N' Socks are the likely principals. Tony Tie is consistent but he usually finds one or two too good, Adobe is up in class and has it to do at the weights, Pythios ran extremely badly last time and with his trainer under a cloud has to be passed over from a disadvantageous draw. The race at Goodwood which Persiano won (richly deserved after many creditable efforts) in a blanket finish from among others John Ferneley is the key. Running well that day in seventh was Red N Socks from a very poor draw and this three-year-old looks to have some more improvement left in him. I think he can make amends for that unfortunate run and although I have great respect for John Ferneley (cannot wait for this one to run again when there is some ease in the ground) it is the three year old who is taken to reverse Goodwood form.
No*1 Choice ~ Red N Socks
(E/W) Alt. ~ John Fernley
The 4Long Pole ~ John Ferneley, Free Option, Pythios, Duraid, Persiano, Tony Tie, Adobe and Red N' Socks are the likely winners of this 7 furlong 'sprint'. I agree with The Flat Man's summarisation of Adobe and Tony Tie, and would suggest that Duraid, and Pythios are similar sorts who may nick one of the placing. This may produce a repeat of the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood, where Persiano, defeated Red N' Socks and John Ferneley. The last two named have stronger credentials today, John Fernley meets the winner of 3lbs better terms for a 3/4-length defeat, and I'd guess that there'd be no more than 'bobbing heads ' between these. The real hard luck story was Red N Socks who delayed proceedings (significantly. BBC has still not forgiven him!!!) by getting loose (and wound up) beforehand. To have finished only three lengths behind them that day is commendable and if he behaves himself in the preliminaries, it would not surprise me if he cam out on top here. It wouldn't surprise me if the main threat turns out to be Free Option, for whom the hurly burly of this will be a dream come true.... this is the sort of race he runs well in and he must have good eachway claims
No*1 Choice ~ Red N Socks
(E/W) Alt. ~Free Option
3:45 Victor Chandler Nunthorpe Stakes Class A (Group 1) £175000 added, 2yo plus, 5f, penalty £101500.00, 15 runners.
The Flat Man ~ A wide-open sprint in which just a length or two could cover the first five or so home in this event. Bertolini (not found his form this year), Harmonic Way (up in class and may need more than 5F), Bernstein (likely to find 5F too sharp) and Eastern Purple (does not win as often as he should) have chances but I think can be discounted. Nuclear Debate must go close but could find the ground drying out too much for him. Rudi's Pet has speed to burn and cannot be discounted on a surface he will enjoy. Pipalong is sure to go close but may not quite be up to this and may prefer a sixth furlong and some ease in the ground. Watching is a game front-runner who will take some catching. For the third time this season, I will give the vote to Rudi's Pet who looked to be right back to his best last time and who will appreciate this fast track.
No*1 Choice ~ Rudi's Pet
(E/W) Alt. ~Emerald Peace
The 4Long Pole ~ We have been truly spoilt on these shores with middle distance stars this season... boy are we paying for it in the sprint department... this is an awful Group 1 race, not many warrant that sort of entry. I feel The Flatman sums up the chances of this field. .
He's absolutely right about Bertolini, a very disappointing horse thus far this year, Harmonic Way as good as he is, cannot be considered any better than a Group 3 horse, Bernstein is interesting if the value of his recent Ascot Form with Auenklang is believed. I have a suspicion that second is better, or would have won with his customary headgear on. My big fear, apart from this thought, he doesn't strike me as a natural 5 furlong horse, and the application of blinkers may be detrimental to his case... we will see
Eastern Purple doesn't win as often as he should do and is hard to trust, and Rudi's Pet is starting to have excuses made for 'fair defeats'. That said he has speed in abundance and should lead this lot a merry dance, as might Watching another game front-runner. With that in mind it seems odd to look past Nuclear Debate who has the beating of most of these on Kings Stand form, must surely prevail, as he is one of the few worthy of running in this event and its hard to fault the form of that event bearing in mind what Japanese sprinter Agnes World came out and did in the July Cup.
In a Group 1 event stay loyal to one of the few bits of Group 1 form
No*1 Choice ~ Nuclear Debate [R*ecommended]
(E/W) Alt. ~ Pipalong
LONG*SHOT ~ Perryston View, only 7lengths behind the selection in the King Stands Stakes. He does go well fresh and will try to get the best placing down a lone furrow
4:15 Charles Heidsieck Champagne Melrose Rated Stakes Class B (Handicap) £30000 added, 3yo only, 1m 5f 194yds, penalty £20558.09, 17 runners.
The Flat Man ~ Another tricky contest. Frangy, Alrisha. Mana d'Argent, Pompeii, Fanfare, Jardine's Lookout, Takwin, Cover Up and Romantic Affair should be the main contenders. Those of you who follow my selections will recall my enthusiasm for Romantic Affair at Goodwood. This has not disappeared and indeed is refreshed by the sight of this fresh challenge over an extra 2F, which I believe can bring out further improvement. He certainly appeared to get caught a little flat-footed last time at the key point in the race but ran respectably to be fourth staying on well. He is well regarded in Arundel and seen as better than a handicapper. Principle danger is probably Jardine's Lookout who ran splendidly last time behind the useful Temple Way - he may appreciate a step up in trip though and may lack the scope of Romantic Affair. Frangy who disappointed last time when he had been progressing well is all worth a second look at the foot of the handicap - he has a bit to do form wise though.
No*1 Choice ~ Romantic Affair
(E/W) Alt. ~Jardines Outlook
The 4Long Pole ~ Although not as good a race, this event requires the same attributes for success as The Ebor did yesterday. . Frangy, Alrisha. Mana d'Argent, Pompeii, Fanfare, Jardine's Lookout, Takwin, Cover Up and Romantic Affair look the likeliest successors. Everything seems tailor made for Jardine's Lookout who stayed on stoutly to finish only 2 1/2 lengths behind Temple Way at Goodwood last time out. This is stiffer test of a horse's stamina, and a strong pace may place right into his hands and its only Mana d'Argent, and Principle, who are open to more improvement at this distance who cause me great concern. Personally I think he's got a great chance, but I appreciate that He'll need luck in running and therefore if offered at decent eachway odds I would suggest they're taken
No*1 Choice ~ Jardines Outlook
(E/W) Alt. ~
4:45 McArthurglen Designer Outlet City of York Stakes Class A (Listed Race) £30000 added, 3yo plus, 6f 214yds, penalty £22717.50, 12 runners.
The Flat Man ~ Tayseer is in such great heart that I refuse to oppose him despite this step up in class. It is questionable whether this is any better than the handicaps he has been winning in any case. He still appears to have plenty in hand from the principle dangers Ho Leng, Late Night Out, Mahfooth and Meadaar. Ho Leng who has been unlucky recently can run well again but I expect Meadaar to pose the greatest threat.
No*1 Choice ~ Tayseer [R*ecommended]
(E/W) Alt. ~
The 4Long Pole ~ Cant profess to being as confident as The Flat Man. Tayseer strikes me as the sort of horse that travels well, but doesn't always give if put under pressure. He did in the Stewards Cup, but to win this he'd have needed too. This is a completely different discipline, and the connections of Ho Leng, Ho Leng, Late Night Out, Mahfooth and Meadaar will all fancy taking him on here. The last two named are potentially useful individuals with speed to burn and Tayseer may find it much harder picking this lot of that he did at Goodwood. He may well do but I wouldn't be a supporter. Mahfooth was a ridiculously easy winner last time out, and he may well spoil favourite backers 'last hurrah'
No*1 Choice ~Mahfooth
(E/W) Alt. ~ Meadaar
DAY TWO OF THE EBOR MEETING
by
The Flatman and The 4Long Pole
EBOR MEETING (YORK)
Wednesday 23rd August
2:05 Motability Rated Stakes Class B (Handicap) £25000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £16882.05, 17 runners.
The FlatMan ~ A more competitive day's racing gets under away with this competitive handicap. Sharp Play, Himself, Prince Alex and Westender (difficult to win with) would be the best of the older horses on show. Of the three year olds, Mastermind, Nooshman and Vintage Premium set the standard. I think the race will be run to suit top weight Sharp Play and I think he can use his turn of foot to good effect here. He ran respectably last time over a trip on the short side for him and can be forgiven that effort. He had previously won a Goodwood handicap over this trip despite having trouble in running and is capable of better still. Himself is well handicapped but looks to need 12F in my book and it is Nooshman (placed in top York handicap last time behind Sobriety) who poses the biggest threat to the selection. This one's high draw puts me off selecting this one.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Sharp Play [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~ Nooshman
The 4 Long Pole ~ Prince Alex, Nooshman, Himself, Trahern, Westender, Dashiba, Pantar, Prairie Wolf, Sharp Play, Vintage Premium, Mastermind, and even Julius, all have chances in what looks a very open race. Prince Alex is somewhat fragile, but he possesses a Rolls Royce engine when fit and at his best, and his reappearance win is an indication of the threat he poses. I understand and agree with The Flatman's assessment of Sharp Play's chances and he must sure go well. Himself has run creditably in two similar events of this nature, and with a strong pace almost certain, he may play a major role in the finish with a clear run. I fear these three, but I'm going to go with Nooshman, another FURLONG TO GO horse to follow this term. It amazes me that this horse has won twice at mile when struggles to lay up in his races and only barely just gets up. His length 3rd to Sobriety is an indication that he has a future at this trip, and the fact that Sobriety good effort in the Gordon Stakes was franked by Air Marshall's success yesterday only lends hope to my view that he should go close here. I'll take him to score despite his apparent poor draw.
Dashiba who ran well at Salisbury last time and who should also appreciate this strong pace should go well, as I suspect Julius totally isolated at he foot of the handicap will also if he repeats the form of his 6lengths 4th behind Prince Alex at Newmarket last time
No*1 CHOICE ~ Nooshman
E/W Alt ~Julius
2:35 Aston Upthorpe Yorkshire Oaks Class A (Group 1)£220000 added, 3yo plus fillies, 1m 3f 195yds, penalty £127600.00, 6 runners.
The FlatMan ~ Take Petrushka to land this - she has the necessary speed and form in the book to capitalise in a slowly run tactical race which looks a distinct possibility here. Doubts about the Cecil pair (particularly Ramruma) and the fact that Interlude has not quite lived up to expectations this season adds to her chances. Love Devine put up a splendid effort to win the Oaks with Petrushka behind (had a poor run) on good to soft ground but there must be doubts about her preparation for this and whether she can perform to the same standard on this faster surface.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Petruskha
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ This might have been a fascinating race if one of these trainers had showed the initiative to enter a pacemaker. This is almost certain to be tactical and open to a 'false result'. I would hazard a guess that either Miletrain, Ela Athena (reluctantly) or Ramruma will at the very least ensure that it isn't a crawl, but I'd doubt that any of these riders are brave enough to sacrifice themselves here.
If they go a dawdle/ordinary gallop what is likeliest to happen. If you went by early season form Petruskha would oblige, but it is worth remembering that she didn't quicken immediately at Epsom and in part was responsible for her own defeat that day. I'd have that in the back of my mind if I wanted to back her. In fact I'd go as far as to say that if you like Love Devine, if you trust the Cecil camp, this statement ought to have convinced you that you should stay loyal. Whilst Love Devine put up a splendid effort to win the Oaks, it only illustrates the topsy-turvy nature of Henry's Cecil season
Two factors have convinced me to stay loyal to Petruskha
* The Cecil camp are far too inconsistent
* There is no doubt in my mind that Petruskha is improving; I have no evidence to suggest that Love Devine has
but I'm not confident as say 'The Flatman' is.
If they go any sort of gallop, don't be too surprised if Ela Athena, and even the Queen's Interlude, play major roles. Interlude improves with racing and has always been well regarded at home. Ela Athena might have given Crimplene more to think about in the Nassau Stakes last time out such was the manner in which she finished. Again a slow pace was her downfall, and of all of these it is her trainer who may pay most for not guaranteeing his charge the pace she requires
No*1 CHOICE ~ Petruskha
E/W Alt ~ Interlude
3:10 Tote Ebor Showcase Handicap Class B £175000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 5f 194yds, penalty £113750.00, 22 runners.
The FlatMan ~ A typically wide-open Ebor. Temple Way displayed an impressive turn of foot last time at Goodwood, which is not often seen in a handicap stayer. He is going the right way and must be on the shortlist although his winning form is on a faster surface than he will encounter today. Boreas is a short price on what he has achieved (a 3 length beating of Ligne Gagnante is not Ebor winning form in my book) and together with the fact that this is his stiffest test to date and that he is relatively inexperienced /difficult to train count against him here. Afterjacko was a little unlucky behind Temple Way last time but I feel this one loses his race at the start where he loses too much nervous energy worrying about going in the stalls.
Biennale appears to have too much weight while Give The Slip appears to have plenty to do at the weights as well - he is a tough customer though. Bay of Islands has been running well this season and together with Eminence Grise can be given chances of sorts. I do, also feel that Inch Perfect (having an excellent season) and Flossy who has just struck form also come into the picture.
Flossy can win this - still improving, reasonably handicapped and has hit form at just the right time, Should stay this trip (best form at 12F) and seems to act on all surfaces. Inch Perfect ran unaccountably badly last time (had a bad draw) and must be forgiven that effort. Travels sweetly in his races and should avoid any trouble in running - still remains well handicapped in my book and can go close.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Floosy
E/W Alt ~ Inch Perfect
The 4 Long Pole ~ This is a very tough race to win, it always run a strong pace, and is more akin to a 2mile race. You really need to on horses that travel through their races, who are going to take to the hurly burly nature of the race, rather that be knock of stride, and effectively out of the race. I've just read The Flatman's assessment and all of those mentioned should go well. Of the ones he mentioned, Temple Way, Afterjacko, Flossy and Inch Perfect all get my seal of approval
I do think though that Boreas is worthy of the closest inspection. As was suggested with Seek who obliged yesterday, there is plenty of improvement to come from this like able individual, and I think it's his current price that will detract punters, rather than the potential he obviously possesses. There aren't that many open to improvement in this line up. I think Ligne Gagnante should go well but he has progressed as much as I'd hope this term. The pace of the race may also suit him. Other with good place claims are Inigo Jones (who was unlucky in running in the Northumberland Plate, and has the ability to go close), and Alva Glen well entered up and still relatively unexposed.
It wouldn't surprise me if Boreas won this, however I'll put faith in Inch Perfect who is one of the few horses that will
* Appreciate the trip,
* Travel sweetly throughout, and most importantly
* Is open to improvement at he trip
No*1 CHOICE ~ Inch Perfect E/W
Alt ~Boreas
LONG*SHOT ~ Inigo Jones
3:45 Scottish Equitable Gimcrack Stakes Class A (Group 2)
The FlatMan ~ Media Mogul, Zilch, Hurricane Floyd, Bannister and Juniper are the main contenders. Zilch was unfortunate last time and is worth another chance but this race is probably too hot for compensation this time. It was hard not to be impressed by Hurricane Floyd's disposal of Bannister at Newmarket (over 6F) with a splendid turn of foot last time. It is difficult to see that form being turned around. Juniper will have to be a bit special to cope with this level of form at the first time of asking. So, as Media Mogul is untested on this quicker surface despite being the form pick (2nd in July stakes at Newmarket) the advice is to stick with the Hurricane.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Hurricane Floyd
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ Bannister, Game N Gited, Media Mogul, Zilch, Hurricane Floyd, and Juniper appeal to me in the next. If I did this purely on the formbook, Hurricane Floyd and Media Mogul would be at the top of the list because of their respective efforts mentioned above... I don't see things that way. Saratov was humbled by Hemingway yesterday, as was Noverre, by Bad as I Wanna Be in Deauville on Sunday. That suggests that it must be worth chancing opposing them. Bannister isn't on the book good enough, Zilch is interesting as he was very unlucky last time out and is surely better than the bare figures suggest. I would have thought that Aiden O'Brien has a good line through these with Hemingway, and he will know whether his well-bred debutante Juniper is up to this... I think he is
No*1 CHOICE ~ Juniper
E/W Alt ~Zilch
4:15 Costcutter Roses Stakes Class A (Listed Race) £125000 added, 2yo only colts and geldings, 6f, penalty £72500.00, 10 runners.
The FlatMan ~ Bouncing Bowdler is the selection. Although he usually finds one too good (in the top company on last two starts) it is difficult to see who could deprive him this time. Joplin's form I suspect does not add up to much and he has plenty to find. That is clearly possible though. The others also appear to have plenty to prove and perhaps the consistent Byo is the principal danger.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Bouncing Bowdler [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ This is hard to weight up. Joplin is hard to assess however I'm not convinced that a drop in trip is required if he only just got up last time out. Bouncing Bowdler is consistent but the row of 2's in his form figures bothers me. He is vulnerable to an improver. I would give very serous consideration to Senior Minister. To have only finish 3 lengths behind Bad as I Wanna Be is arguably strong form, but o have won last time when he gave away ground at the start lends to my view that this nippy individual may outpace these
No*1 CHOICE ~ Senior Minister E/W
Alt ~ Bouncing Bowdler
4:45 Moorestyle Convivial Maiden Stakes Class D
The FlatMan ~ Of those to have seen the racecourse, I think Nasmatt showed a level of form and sufficient promise at Goodwood to set a fair standard here. It is not inconceivable that with some of the larger stables represented here with unraced animals that one or two of these could be good enough - the market will obviously be the best guide here. But with that in mind, I still give the tentative nod to Nasmatt to confirm that first run of such promise.
No*1 CHOICE ~
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ Ghayth has The 'Furlong To Go' stamp of approval on its debut at ascot when a very unlucky 6th, 8l behind Rumpold. There is little doubt that he would have finished a lot closer that day if he not met with two incidents of interference when he had began to make his run... Compensation awaits
No*1 CHOICE ~ Ghayth [R*ecommended]
E/W Alt ~Lilleman
5:15 Falmouth Handicap Class C
The FlatMan ~ Tricky little race in that many of these appear to be coming into form. Travesty of Law (ran well from a poor draw at Goodwood last time) Rozel (excellent 3rd to Majic Rainbow at Ascot) and Elvington Boy (knocking at the door) fall into this category. The likes of Compton Banker (running well but often finds trouble) and Pipadash (seems a little below best) and Kathology (perhaps a shade too much weight) are all capable of winning on their day. Rozel gets the nod as I got the distinct impression he would be winning before too long last time and conditions look right. Travesty of Law meanwhile may need a faster surface than todays to show his best - the draw has also not been that kind.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Rozel
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ Compton Banker, Elvington Boy, Shinbone Alley, Travesty Of Law, Singsong, Desraya, Kathology, Somesession, La Caprice, Rozel, James Stark, Pipadash, and Cd Flyer, appear to have chances in the last. I would be prepared to take a chance with Compton Banker, who wins at 5fulomngs but always seems to need a sixth. He does need the run of the race, but a 3 1/2l fourth behind Flak Jacket at Goodwood last time over 6furlongs reads well, and I will be hoping that he edges past Travesty of Law close home
No*1 CHOICE ~ Compton Banker
E/W Alt ~ Cd Flyer
DAY ONE OF THE EBOR MEETING
by
The Flatman and The 4Long Pole
EBOR MEETING (YORK)
Tuesday 22nd August
2:05 Breckenbrough Racing Acomb Stakes Class A (Listed Race) £30000 added, 2yo only, 6f 214yds, penalty £19992.00, 5 runners
The FlatMan ~ Hemingway is clearly open to very considerable improvement from his debut effort and already has a reputation of being just a little special. On that basis, he must be the selection here and is taken to dispose of the more experienced and useful Saratov (who will not go down without a fight I'm sure) and give the hacks plenty to write about.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Hemingway
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ Hemingway, Eminence, and Saratov do battle in the opener. Hemingway is burdened with a tall home reputation, however his 7lengths saunter around Galway has helped pushed him to the forefront of next season's classis betting. That said it is hard to fault Saratov, who has improved with his racing. After an eye-catching third on his debut, he put in a game performance with a battling success here over course and distance, really stretching his neck in the final quarter. Better was to come at Ascot on his last start when he took what looked a better event at Ascot, again knuckling down before beating Swing Band by 1/2l. This is a hard call as Hemingway may be a 'tartar', however Saratov has proven his battling qualities, and that if it came to it may swing the race his way. I take him to score
No*1 CHOICE ~ Saratov
E/W Alt ~
2:35 Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Stakes Class A (Group 3) £75000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 7f 195yds, penalty £44625.00, 5 runners.
The FlatMan ~ Royal Rebel has done little wrong this season (has been accused of not putting it all in) and won a slowly run Goodwood Cup last time. He is the selection. In a race, which may also be slowly run, this should be in his favour. Rainbow High (the likely favourite) will not appreciate a crawl while Spirit of Love does not appear to be the horse he once was and needs a searching test. Rostropovich looks to have plenty on at the weights for a three year old but represents a top stable. The improving Ski Run could surprise under Dettori - this one is improving and won an Ascot handicap last time. Will not be inconvenienced as some by a slow pace and has a decent turn of foot. Would be the suggested alternative to Royal Rebel if you do not trust that one.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Royal Rebel
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ A tactical 'trap' is guaranteed unless Spirit of Love makes the running, which I will guess he will do. And at the very least he will insure that the race isn't a real dawdle... after all that is detrimental to his own chances. Royal Rebel is bound to have his supporters after his battling success in the Goodwood Cup, and whilst isn't the most genuine horse on display today, he has more than proven his doubters this term, that factor will not be the reason should he fail.
I don't think Ski Run is good enough, unless these jockeys really mess around and turn this stayers event into a middle distance 'sprint'. That unfortunately is feasible but I'd gamble it wont occur. Rostropovich I interesting in so far as he is far less exposed than any of his rivals, and with all the weight allowances, and a trip which should suit, it wouldn't surprise me if he went close. My mind thought returns to Goodwood Cup day and the sight of Rainbow High, who was having his first race since the early season cruising past Royal Rebel in that slowly run affair, until lack of fitness told inside the final quarter mile. With the stable threatening to come out of the doldrums, a fitter, straighter version of Rainbow High may well have too natural class for his rivals
No*1 CHOICE ~Rainbow High
E/W Alt ~Rostropovich
3:10 Juddmonte International Stakes Class A (Group 1) £450000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £261000.00, 6 runners.
1 Almushtarak 7-year-old K Mahdi R Cochrane
2 Kalanisi 4-year-old Sir Michael Stoute Pat Eddery
3 Lear Spear (USA) 5-year-old D Elsworth T Quinn
4 Barathea Guest 3-year-old M Channon L Dettori
5 Giant's Causeway 3-year-old A O'Brien M J Kinane
6 Shoal Creek 3-year-old A O'Brien Paul Scallan
The FlatMan ~ How many times can Giants Causeway go to the well - that is the question. It seems sensible to me that it is only a matter of time before he returns from a race empty handed. In the lightly raced Kalanisi who is better off at the weights (courtesy of weight for age) from the Eclipse battle with the Giant he faces a formidable and consistent opponent who has a comparable level of form. It seems sensible to go with the lightly raced animal at this time of the year. Barathea Guest may run well as a result of his new stable, jockey and trainer having the desired effect but the ground will probably be too quick for this one.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Kalanisi
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ Coral Eclipse revisited! ... or that's how I'm sure the pundits will serve it up in the newspapers tomorrow. Can't say I disagree with that assessment, and I wouldn't be looking past Giant's Causeway, Kalanisi, and Barathea Guest for the winner. Barathea Guest may go well for his new stable but appears to have something to find with the main protagonists, although that said the trip will suit him. I would suggest that the other two are the likely winners.
As I tipped up Giant's Causeway, and Kalanisi, for the Eclipse, I reminded myself that whilst I thought they would stay the trip, there chance was aided by the poor choice of pacemaker I the line up, a clear case of Godolphin, John Dunlop, and Henry Cecil reaping what they sewed by not ensuring decent charges for their rivals. If Shoal Creek performs as badly as Godolphin's charge did that day, the result may well be the same, and if that's your assessment then I'd go with that conviction. I personally feel Shoal Creek whilst not brilliant may be more capable of doing the job, after all finishing 22 lengths behind Sinndar in the Irish Derby, where he was asked to perform a similar task (unnecessary as it transpired) sounds good in relation to the task he has been asked to perform. It may transpire to be very significant, as whilst I adore 'The Giant' and expect another bold bid, I cant help but feel the Eclipse suited him the most, and Kalanisi may step on that effort, and he has been aimed specifically here, and not as an afterthought as is the case with 'The Giant'. Kalanisi 'won the Eclipse before victory was snatched close home...with a truer gallop, I wouldn't be surprised if the bobbing heads were reversed this time around
No*1 CHOICE ~ Kalanisi
E/W Alt ~
3:45 Great Voltigeur Stakes Class A (Group 2) £150000 added, 3yo only colts and geldings, 1m 3f 195yds, penalty £89250.00, 5 runners
The FlatMan ~ I cannot help but feel that this rests between the penalised Subtle Power and Marienbard. I take the former to kick on early in the straight and run the finish out of the Jarvis animal. I'm not sure I trust Air Marshall implicitly (should have won last time) while I cannot help but feel Dalampour who stays so well can only be inconvenienced by this sharp step back in trip from last time (although his breeding suggests he might be able to manage it).
No*1 CHOICE ~ Subtle Power
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~ Could be unwise to rule any of Marienbard, Subtle Power, Air Marshall, Dalampour, and French Fellow out of this tactical affair. You would have thought that Dalampour and Air Marshal must insure a respectable pace otherwise they will surely be done for toe down the final stretch. Royal Ascot winner Subtle Power will have his 'players' after his 3length defeat of Zafonium, and only maybe the in and out form of the stable would worry his strongest supporters. Gordon Stake runner-up Air Marshal is closely matched with Marienbad on their Haydock meeting, however it was reported that Marienbad had sustained an injury after that race, and that this race may be a 'tune up' for the St Leger. Whilst that would stop him necessarily especially if this becomes tactical... at least you were warned!!! .
Although Dalampour was very impressive in the Queen Vase, it is being somewhat overlooked that this FURLONG TO GO 'Horse to follow on the flat' has won at the trip, and was maybe extremely unlucky on his debut at Newbury when he was frankly given an inept ride by his pilot, who found more pockets than you find on a suit!!!
Subtle Power, the victor that day is not guaranteed to confirm placings and I'd be brave and go with my conviction that Dalampour is a most progressive colt. His run may be the most intriguing as a good performance in a race not (so it is claimed) likely to suit must bode well for the St Leger
No*1 CHOICE ~ Dalampour
E/W Alt ~
4:15 Ladbroke Knavesmire Stakes Showcase Handicap Class C £25000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 3f 195yds, penalty £19977.75, 18 runners
The FlatMan ~ Wide-open handicap. Very few who can be eliminated easily. I think Rich Vein will make a very bold effort to get back on the winning track after a slightly disappointing effort at Goodwood while Wait for the Will has been the epitome of consistency all season. Seek and Air Defence (both appear to have plenty of weight) nonetheless have chances as does Riyafa and the lightly weighted Warning Reef. But the suggestion is Canford who will appreciate Ray Cochrane's strong handling and the step down in distance and class from a Newmarket listed event last time where the trip proved beyond him.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Canford
E/W Alt ~Wait for the Will
The 4 Long Pole ~ Wait For The Will, Gralmano, Warning Reef, Westgate Run, Seek, Night Venture, Batswing, Rich Vein, Fatehalkhair, and Morgans Orchard, head the market in a very competitive heat. It is difficult to ignore the likes of Gralmano, Warning Reef, and Westgate Run who are winning races in lower grades. They give you 100% most of the time and I'd be certain they'd do the same again here. I can't help but think though that they will be vulnerable to some of the 'improvers' in the field or the horses at the top of the market. One of these, Seek caught the eye when finishing 5th of 9, 6l behind Eminence Grise here last time out. One got the impression that was as far as Seek wanted to go, and the reduction in trip here is likely to suit. A horse hailing from a shrewd yard, who are firing after a very quiet season always are worth a second glance, and I have no hesitation in suggesting an eachway bet on this one. Canford, Rich Vein, and Warning Reef look the ones to fear
No*1 CHOICE ~ Seek (E/W)
Alt ~ Canford
4:45 Links of London Eglinton Nursery Class C £15000 added, 2yo only, 6f 214yds, penalty £11609.00, 13 runners.
The FlatMan ~ Peregian, Lunar Leo, Stretton and Time to Remember are the one's to concentrate on here. In a trappy event, I would suggest Time to Remember has more scope for improvement yet and can make the weight concession count at the main expense of Lunar Leo.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Time To Remember
E/W Alt ~
The 4 Long Pole ~Time To Remember, Lunar Leo, Peregian, Dominaite, Imperial Dancer, Trojan Prince, Caspian, Sabana, and Affarati, head the market in the sixth. Time To Remember is well regarded by connections (hence the Group 1 entry) but a 3/4length victory over Soldier Point suggests that he has a bit to find to live up to that entry. Lunar Leo ran well in a similar event and should go well, and should Trojan Prince, and the admiral Peregian, skillfully placed to win already three times this term. I'll stick with Time to Remember who is nicely weighted if his Group entry is warranted, howevr Barry Hills has an interesting hand with two nicely weighted and unexposed individuals (Trojan Prince, and Caspian) and it wouldn't surprise me if they were better than their bare form figures suggest
No*1 CHOICE ~ Time to Remember
E/W Alt ~Caspian
5:15 Harewood Handicap Class C £20000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £17290.00, 23 runners.
The FlatMan ~ Flak Jacket has done us some favours in the past and must have a great chance here despite his recent reassessment by the handicapper. Despite encountering defeat last time, he was most unlucky and can be forgiven that blemish. Bon Ami, Antonio Canova and Fearby Cross are also worth close consideration. But I see this between the three-year-old Capricho (scope for improvement at this trip) and the lightly raced Miss Hit. Miss Hit put in a career best effort last time after a break and may come on again for that pipe opener. In a wide-open contest she is given a narrow squeak.
No*1 CHOICE ~ Miss Hit
E/W Alt ~ Capricho
LONG*SHOT ~ Fearby Cross.
The 4 Long Pole ~ Capricho, Flak Jacket, Bon Ami, Brecongill Lad, Miss Hit, Antonio Canova, Fearby Cross, Kayo, Lago Di Varano, Peruvian Chief, Cryhavoc, Danielle's Lad, Mungo Park and Guinea Hunter have chances in the most awkward of sprints. Whilst the likes of Flak Jacket, Mungo Park, Brecongill Lad, and Bon Ami have done FURLONG TO GO readers some favours in the past, it may pay to take the simplistic view that Capricho (despite almost certainly likely to start at a short price) is the one to be on, as this attempt over a shorter trip seems very likely to suit. On his last three starts (over 7furlongS) he has travelled well throughout before going clear with 1 1/2 furlongs to go before weakening markedly close home.
It is interesting that it is being written up that he is poorly drawn, as he is next to Lago Di Varano, Flak Jacket, Mungo Park, and Lord Pacal (all who are likely to come into for support.) Whilst it could be true it would seem odd that the chances of these similarly badly drawn horses are being hyped up in the press as I type this, and I'd bear this point in mind, when backing Capricho or any of these runners.... at least you understand the risk out take in following any of these. It was nice to see Mungo Park get a victory last time out, and whilst two wins in succession seem unlikely, it wouldn't surprise me if he took a placing
No*1 CHOICE ~ Capricho
E/W Alt ~Mungo Park
LONG*SHOT ~ The Gay Fox
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