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"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?"
"I
SPY!!" - ODDS ON SPORT -
is the latest
addition to the Furlong To Go portfolio. We have been considering doing
this for a while, and we hope to be able to offer you opportunities to
place wagers on most sports, though initially we will be concentrating
on football. We hope you find this latest feature of some use
POSTING TIMES FOR SELECTIONS_
Selections should be available on Fridays, after 11:00pm. Hopefully this helps
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?" 2002 - WEEK 1
"The Spy" wishes you a Happy New Year.
While we have little doubt that there will be numerous further postponements tomorrow to add to the considerable number of matches which have already fallen foul of the weather here are our thoughts on the best bets in the 3rd round of the FA Cup.
Firstly, let's look at the chances of the 2 non-league survivors Canvey Island and Dagenham as we feel one of these sides represents the bet of the weekend. Canvey are a best priced 14-1 with Coral for their visit to Burnley while Dagenham are a best priced 15-2 with Ladbrokes for the visit of Premiership side Ipswich. Canvey looked a pretty limited outfit to me in their creditable televised victory over a poor Northampton side in the second round while lacking nothing in spirit or effort. Burnley who lie 2nd in Div 1 are having an excellent and consistent season. Turf Moor has been no easy place to visit this season and I can find little to suggest an upset can happen here. In contrast, the 15-2 Dagenham must be snapped up. While no non-league side has ever knocked a Premiership side out of the FA Cup these odds make the risk worth taking. Dagenham (as regular readers will know) were our selection to win the Conference pre-season and they are doing us proud as things stand. They are a formidable attacking force (Stein - who will not play - McDougald and Charlery) have had excellent seasons while the defence has been consistently good too bar a big lapse recently against Telford (lost 5-1). With home advantage and significantly news that Ipswich are likely to be very unsettled at the back with three of their 5 defenders (including the keeper) unlikely to play (they will also be missing the useful forward Armstrong) this looks a combination with upset written all over it. Added to this is the motivation factor - Ipswich will surely want to put all their efforts into staying in the Premiership (if only for financial reasons) and do not need the distraction of a Cup run. I doubt how much they will "want" this.
In other matches there seems little value in backing the banker homes Newcastle and Millwall or the more obvious aways in Leeds or Arsenal which are all heavily odds on. Even Stoke (going so well in Div 2) price of 12-5 against Everton looks positively skinny despite the obvious possibilities of an upset taking place. I suggest the best of the rest are Norwich @4-1 to beat unpredictable Chelsea, Birmingham to beat Liverpool @9-1 (the Blues are going really well under their new manager and Liverpool are not firing and probably the second best bet this weekend Mansfield @9-1 (Betabet) to beat Premiership strugglers Leicester. Mansfied (our handicap pick for Div 3) are a young side which is going places -Greenacre scores the goals and gets the credit - but they are a useful outfit overall. Despite the apparent class gap, these factors can hardly be said of Leicester who are nothing but hardworking.
Division 1 - Ante Post update
As regular readers will know, we have long since insisted this section is wide open with no outstanding team on display. While there is no doubt Manchester City are the class side in the Division on their day, their defence is still vulnerable in our opinion and it is only their formidable strike force which sees them through. Despite these frailties they have risen to the top of the pile and are a best priced 8-11 on to win the league championship. This may well be the case but does not represent any value whatsoever and they are worth taking on. Among a host of challengers two sides finding form (Millwall and Norwich) make considerable appeal to us at current odds. Are Millwall really 20-1 chances with Ladbrokes? Surely Norwich are overpriced at 33-1 with Coral to land the title? We feel they certainly both represent considerable value as the season enters it's final third as they are both in cracking form and appear to be going from strength to strength. In what is a wide open year they look worth backing to small stakes only because in the back of your mind you just have to doubt they have the class to win the championship outright. But this is a charge which can be levelled at almost all the other contenders as things stand. And when will Manchester City's strikeforce hit a bad patch - could this happen at the most critical stage of the season - I just wonder.
Recommendation
Back Dagenham (best bet) @15-2 with Ladbrokes to cause the "surprise" of the round. Take Norwich, Mansfield (next best) and Birmingham to small stakes to land their ties.
Small stakes bets on Millwall (20-1 Ladbrokes) and Norwich 33-1 (Coral) are advised.
THE SPY
Friday, January 04, 2002
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