|
Analysis & Selections by
the
spy.
"I
SPY!!" - ODDS ON SPORT -
is the l atest
addition to the Furlong To Go portfolio. We have been considering doing
this for a while, and we hope to be able to offer you opportunities to
place wagers on most sports, though initially we will be concentrating
on football. We hope you find this latest feature of some use.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 17
Friday, 20 December 2002
Hello. An important week with this weekend's matches the first of four over the holiday period. This is a crunch period and all teams will wish to get off to a good start. We hope to identify the best bets below. Incidentally, please note that this will be the last posting by The Spy until the matches played on 11 January.
Premiership
Manchester United (not a bad price at a shade of odds on) can maintain their good recent form at Blackburn (a ground where they traditionally do well) to kick start their Festive programme. Southampton in fair shape look just about the value at Leeds and could bring more Christmas woe for Venables and co.
Div. 1
Not so much here. Ipswich (see below under shock) have been below form for much of this campaign but are very capable on their day and can beat anybody if in the mood. Portsmouth have injury problems and are due a poor spell (they have under-performed in recent weeks) and Ipswich can
capitalise at 4-1.
Div 2
Plenty of bets stand out here. Cardiff will be all to powerful for modest Colchester (fill your boots) while 5-4 Crewe can surely dispose of an average Swindon outfit. While Bristol City should land the home banker - they are a formidable side
especially. at home at the moment - perhaps, the standout bet is the 15-8 for Brentford to win at poorly QPR who have been dumped out of the Cup by Vauxhall Motors and taken two heavy league defeats in their recent starts. Only local Derby rivalry detracts from my confidence.
Div 3
There won't be much between Bury and Rochdale on recent form and on that basis the 100-30 Rochdale who have hit form looks way too big. However, Bury are useful so perhaps a draw is the most likely outcome for those wishing to play safe. I would expect Orient to beat Swansea and Cambridge to beat Bristol Rovers while Oxford can surely overcome Exeter despite their good record among the two.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Try a high scoring correct result between Sheffield Utd and Preston. Something like 3-2 or 4-2.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Walsall at Norwich looks the most obvious contender in view of the Canaries faltering form and
goal scoring difficulties. They can defy Norwich who are as short as 8-11. Ipswich (4-1)_ (talented on their day) may get the better of Portsmouth who are carrying plenty of injuries.
RECOMMENDED BET
*** Cardiff
** Brentford
* Ipswich, also Bristol City and Crewe.
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
Have a super Christmas and a prosperous New Year (with a little help from us of course).
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 16
Friday, 13 December 2002
Hello. An interesting week especially for the Premiership and Div 1 fixture list with these matches representing the reverse fixtures of those matches played as recently as 16 November. This might prove to be to our advantage (in some cases at least).
Premiership
I think we saw enough in the Liverpool v Sunderland clash at Anfield (where there was a supreme Gulf in class) to assume that the Reds can land the away win which quotes of around 8-11 indicate will be the result in this reverse fixture. Sunderland appear to have gone into a further decline over the intervening period. Chelsea are also going very nicely at present. They are 6-4 to beat Boro (a 1-0 victory in the recent fixture did not reflect their superiority) and the more space which will come their way here can be exploited by Chelsea and I expect a bigger margin of victory this time.
Div. 1
Nottingham Forest beat Bradford 3-0 on 16/11/02. Fortunes have remained low for Bradford since - Forest are talented and can land the best bet in this section at a shade of odds on. You would also expect Portsmouth to repeat their comfortable away win at Stoke but they were pretty limited against Reading last week (injury problems) and I have some doubts. Wolves should overcome Coventry again (with or without Paul
Ince) but you can never be entirely sure with Wolves can you?
Div. 2
Little to excite here. Crewe should win (going well) but priced up accordingly and so should Huddersfield against a weak Stockport outfit. But Huddersfield have let us down before. Best bet then is Plymouth to beat Swindon at Home Park. Plymouth going well again after a sticky patch are useful on their day especially on home soil and after Swindon's failure against Oxford last week there looks to be little to fear from the men in red.
Div. 3
Take a close look at Oxford for their trip to Bristol (Oxford rather impressed me last week in their FA Cup win over Swindon) and that may have given them the boost they require to overcome Rovers who are frankly always beatable. Exeter look a little overpriced for the visit of Swansea and that is worthy of further consideration. Bournemouth can overcome Shrewsbury (significantly likely to be without leading man
Jemson) and continue their promotion push.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Bolton seem to specialise in 1-1 home draws. Back that result again here against Leeds.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
I cannot really see one. Perhaps, Darlington may hold Hull they are 4-1 to win and over 2-1 to draw while Hull are short at 4-6. Probably a home to leave alone in any case (we have a growing regard for a young Darlington outfit).
RECOMMENDED BET(S)
*** Liverpool
** Plymouth
* Nottingham Forest
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 15
Friday, 06 December 2002
Hello. Another good week last week. Hope you found a winning bet or two from our advice. Frankly, this week looks hopeless and very little appeals.
Premiership
Nothing here.
Div. 1
Nothing here either.
F.A. Cup
After doing so well in the previous round, we hoped to find a surprise or two this week. However, again nothing really grabs my eye. Cardiff and Scunthorpe look obvious winners but there is no tremendous value on offer. The other matches either look tight or predictable (with prices given accordingly). Having seen Crawley beat Bognor in the Sussex Cup (about a month ago now) - a well deserved win they were too strong and to quick for a young Bognor outfit - they did strike me as being quite limited from a defensive point of view particularly against pace. There oversize centre halves will certainly struggle against the well known pace of the Dagenham front line and the Crawley workmanlike midfield could also be exposed against their higher level opponents.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
How about a very high score win for Cardiff?
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
You could do worse than have a sheckle or two on Vauxhall Motors.
Recommended bet
*** Cardiff
** Dagenham
* Scunthorpe.
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 14
Friday, 29 November 2002
Hello. Another good set of results last weekend, but because of a difficult set of fixtures and bookmakers leaving little value in many matches of interest to us, we may be pushed to complement those efforts this week. Certainly, the lower leagues (where we tend to find most value opportunities) offer little encouragement.
PREMIERSHIP
All the matches seem to be fairly priced and little appeals. Middlesboro may get the better of West Bromwich but the price reflects this thinking.
DIVISION 1
Gillingham to beat Stoke. Leicester to beat Grimsby. Norwich to beat Derby. Of these you would have to think Leicester at around evens would have to many aces up their
sleeves to dispose of a Grimsby side have a fairly typical below-par season.
DIVISION 2
Difficult. Plymouth to win at Colchester? Possibly. Blackpool to win at home to Notts County. Looks reasonable. Oldham to win at Barnsley - must be strong possibilities. But nothing you would put your shirt on!
DIVISION 3
Bury and Rushden should both win. They are priced up accordingly. The stand-out bet, however, looks to be Darlington at home to Southend at around a generous looking 11-10. Darlington let us down last week by only drawing but this in itself was commendable after coming back from a two goal deficit. Indeed, they could have won in the end. We strongly feel they are a better side than their lowly league position. Southend are nothing but hardworking and may find the long trip back south a very long one indeed. Of less appeal are York, Torquay and Oxford (all quite nicely priced) but not the most reliable of teams - but worthy of close consideration nonetheless.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Nothing appeals.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Nothing appeals.
RECOMMENDED BET
*** Darlington
** Leicester
* Oldham
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 13
Friday, 22 November 2002
Hello. Hope you had some fun with our cup selections last week - I certainly did! This week look a difficult one in my view and little stands out.
Premiership
Again little appeals. I can get most excited about Liverpool's visit to Fulham (around even money) in view of
Fulham' s recent efforts in the Premiership. The Reds have a good recent record at Fulham.
Division 1
Crystal Palace look the home banker. Portsmouth the away. Wimbledon at Derby may provide the weekend shock. Another minor shock may come at Wolves where a more than useful Nottingham Forest side are the visitors.
Division 2
Lots of reasonably tempting big priced homes on offer here that caught our eye and have required my closer inspection. I have in mind the likes of the matches at Huddersfield, Northampton, Notts County and Plymouth. You may also wish to take a look and gather your thoughts on these. My opinion though, despite the initial temptation is that the bookies have probably got the prices about right - Plymouth probably is the only one which I might go for. They appear to be coming back to their early season form and Stockport are poor.
Division 3
Scunthorpe stand out for me as the home banker - they should overcome a battling but limited Swansea side. Hull should also overcome Boston. Bristol Rovers always appear vulnerable and Wrexham might land the spoils (but are short enough). Bournemouth have done us plenty of favours and are a useful outfit this term in this class. Southend are generally beatable and the Cherries can land the spoils in the battle of the seaside towns. Darlington are worth a second look at Shrewsbury - we feel they are a bit better than their lowly league position and are not badly priced at 3-1. Cambridge have a fine record at Exeter (who may have a FA Cup reply on their minds) and an away win looks the bet here.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
None.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Might new manager of Hartlepool (the league leaders of Division 3) Mike Newell get off to a poor start at Orient? Looks entirely possible in view of the recent record between these two at Brisbane Road despite their respective current form and league positions.
Recommended bet
*** Scunthorpe
** Bournemouth
* Hull
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
SOMETHING FOR THE
WEEKEND - WEEK 12
Friday, 15 November 2002
Hello. Apologies for a disappointing set of selections last week. The FA Cup dominates the coupon this week - we hope to pinpoint some upsets.
PREMIERSHIP
Nothing to get excited about here.
DIVISION ONE
Or here really. Perhaps, at the available odds (around 3-1) Crystal Palace might be worthy of close consideration at a below-par (of late) Norwich. Hard to be over confident, but if current form means
anything... there can only be one result. Also, consider improving Watford (around a generous looking evens) at home to Ipswich who tend to falter following their regular Thursday night European adventure.
F.A. CUP
The Conference top two (Yeovil and Chester) are obvious candidates to spring a surprise in their cup ties. Yeovil, have of course been doing this for years now and Cheltenham won't fancy the trip. But, as Yeovil have gone off the boil in recent weeks it is Chester (around 4-1) away to Colchester which stands out for me. Firstly, Colchester are very in and out and you really don't know what you are going to get on the day. Secondly, Chester are a young progressive side who won't be lacking in confidence based on their recent form. They score plenty of goals too and have some useful strikers at the business end. Worth a chance. Also representing the Conference against league opposition is our selection to win the Conference title and that is
Morecombe. They are also coming good and had a fine win last week against Doncaster. As they
couldn't be in better nick, then the 6-1 or so for a win at Chesterfield must be the worth an interest to small stakes taking account of Chesterfield's strong home form. Beyond these ties Bournemouth look the home banker at 4-7, while Wigan must be the away win banker and surely prove too strong for non-league Hereford. Rochdale are struggling badly at the moment and Barry Fry's Peterborough look the bet in the match at
Spotland. Finally, we cannot finish without mentioning university side Team Bath who are taking all the headlines (and rightly so) in recent weeks. They really
couldn't have chosen a better side to play against than Mansfield who have looked so vulnerable in Div 2 all season and who have taken some heavy beatings in the process. I expect this to be close and 4-1 does not represent the chances of Team Bath here. However, despite saying this I'll give the nod to Mansfield.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Try a high scoring correct score in the Team Bath v Mansfield tie. Something like 2-2 or 2-3. There must be goals a plenty surely.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Has to be Chester.
RECOMMENDED
BETS
*** Bournemouth
** Watford
* Chester
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
SOMETHING FOR THE
WEEKEND - WEEK 11
Friday, 08 November 2002
Hello. A brief report this week in view of other pressures. To summarise, it looks like a week to consider away wins
Premiership
Man United (not often tipped in these pages) will surely want to win the Manchester derby and are quite generously priced to do so. While this is a life and death situation for City fans too they don't have the quality of the United squad.
Fulham, also nicely priced, can continue their good form against a poor Aston Villa outfit (how long before Taylor goes or is pushed)?
DIVISION 1
Look at leaders Portsmouth (worthy of consideration despite their current injury problems) and Preston at Millwall.
DIVISION 2
Bristol City and Oldham catch the eye here against a moderate Colchester outfit and a faltering Plymouth side who are finding things hard after a bright start.
DIVISION 3
A rare home win on the coupon should come the way of Bury (described by the Orient manager when delivering our suggested bet at Orient last week as the best team they have played at home this season) against a weakening Torquay. Aways for Hull at Lincoln and Carlisle at Kidderminster are also entirely possible.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
None.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Could Exeter defy Hartlepool (leaders in Division 3) - must be a chance of that.
Recommended bet
*** Manchester Utd
** Bury
* Fulham
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND"
- WEEK 10
Friday, November 01, 2002
Hello. Not much to offer from this quarter for this weekend with a particularly difficult set of fixtures scheduled. So, keep bets to a minimum or use small stakes is the overall advice.
Premiership
Nothing grabs me.
Division 1
Well Norwich let us down badly last week (they have now taken only 2 points from their last 9) and have hit their first minor sticky patch of the campaign. However, that said, you would expect them to get a result at Wimbledon despite the Don's apparent better results of late. Brighton, so abject all season (really thrashed last week) might come unstuck against Bradford but they have lost too many on the road in recent weeks to bet confidently.
Division 2
Bristol City who did us a good turn last week remain formidable at home and look a banker. Blackpool are creeping up the table (largely unnoticed) on the strength of their home form but against a Brentford outfit who seem to struggle for goals at home they maybe the team to side with here. Cardiff also look home bankers while it would come as no surprise to see Luton land the away win at Northampton (they are in good form away at present).
Division 3
Two potential bets here. Boston to overcome Exeter in view of their current
resurgence. Bury who landed our weekend surprise a few weeks back by beating Rushden are a very capable outfit on their day - they can overcome an Orient side who continue to
disappoint all to often for our liking.
Weekend Shock
Perhaps, lowly Stockport can defy Oldham at Boundary Park.
Weekend Fun Bet
Nothing stands out.
Recommended bets
None this week - give it a miss! (there is always next week).
Have a good weekend
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 9
Thursday, 24 October 2002
Hello. Firstly, a little football ante-post update on our pre-season advice with about a third of the season passed. Gillingham and Norwich on handicap betting (see table below) are both going nicely although I am a little worried about the progress of Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United at this stage. Having said that, some of the big players (the likes of Wolves and Ipswich) already look to have too much on their plates because of their points handicap and their indifferent form.
1. Rotherham 60 (points)
2. Walsall 53
3. Gillingham 53
4. Sheff Utd 52
5. N Forest 52
6. Grimsby 51
7. Watford 49
8. Reading 46
9. Norwich 45
10. Bradford 42
In Division 2, Wigan are of course on top of the pile as things stand, while Rushden in fourth are nicely placed despite a current shaky spell. The Conference bets on Morecombe and
Farnborough are looking a trifle optimistic now (one could do worse than to take the 11-8 Yeovil with Corals judged on performance so far) but all hope is not lost yet. In the Champions League, (despite an upset midweek) our 10-1 Arsenal is still looking nice.
This week looks to offer plenty of betting opportunities as well which are covered below;
The Domestic Weekend
Premiership
Nothing here.
Division 1
3 potential bets here. Nottingham Forest (a team very much one to look out for especially for next season) look overpriced to overcome troubled Leicester in view of their current form but the Derby factor does introduce a slight risk. Norwich also are worthy of consideration to win away at Bradford (middle of the road). Norwich who came away with a creditable draw at Coventry in midweek should find this easier all around. Sheffield United up to fourth in the table should be able to overcome Wimbledon if current form is taken into account.
Division 2
Huddersfield look the bankers (despite their indifferent form) at around even money to send Colchester (looking increasingly poor) home to Essex with
nowt. A team to watch in this section are Bristol City (a young side who need experience) but while formidable at home don't travel too well. But they must be considered at an out of form Peterborough where they are unlikely to be tested to any great extent. It can only be a question of time before they can match their Ashton Gate form (where they are formidable) on their away trips.
Division 3
Boston who have a new lease of life (we have criticised them heavily in recent weeks) might be up to beating a below par (of late) Rochdale outfit. But that is for the braver among you I suggest. Hull (under Peter Taylor) also look a different side now and could well break into the promotion picture (they have been backed to do so). At around even money, they are the bet against a faltering Rushden. The two bets here though, must be Carlisle against Swansea at odds against and Scunthorpe against Torquay at even money. Carlisle are better than there placing in the table suggests and this has been proved in recent performances culminating in a win at Division 2 Oldham in the cup midweek. Now that they have some confidence I expect them to climb up the table quickly. Scunthorpe also started slowly but have hit form with abundance recently and are the form side of the
Division. Torquay with three successive defeats appear to have had their bubble burst in no uncertain terms. Bournemouth should also overcome York.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
None.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Consider Grimsby at Wolves or Walsall at Coventry. West Bromwich at Chelsea could be another.
RECOMMENDED
BET(S)
*** Norwich to beat Bradford
** Carlisle to beat Swansea
* Scunthorpe to beat Torquay
Huddersfield to beat Colchester
Bristol City to beat Peterborough
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 8
Thursday, 17 October 2002
Hello. Well the England result midweek shows what an unpredictable game football can be and that nothing can be taken for granted where football betting is concerned. Maybe because these thoughts are fresh in my mind I feel this week's programme looks particularly tricky. Caution may be the key this week.
The Domestic Weekend
Premiership
It is perhaps Middlesboro who stand out for us against a poor Charlton side add a shade of odds against. They look an improved outfit this season and their lofty position in the table may not be entirely a false dawn. With strength running through their side they look hard to beat hear against the Addicks who face a long battle against relegation I suspect.
Div 1
In a hard set of ties, I'm really only attracted to Norwich against weak
Millwall.
Div 2
QPR and Cardiff (shade of odds against) look the two teams to concentrate on.
Div 3
Darlington @5-6 appeal. Boston are poor. Bournemouth are going sufficiently well enough (but are short enough) to oppose an average Orient outfit.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Wimbledon, Derby and Bristol City in a draw treble. The "Derby" factor.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Bury (around 4-1) may prevent Rushden from landing short odds.
Recommended bet
*** None this week.
**
*
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
Enjoy your weekends!
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 7
Friday, 11 October 2002
Hello. I'm glad to be back - sorry for the absence.
The Domestic Weekend
Curtailed programme but nonetheless some interesting matches catch our attention.
Div 1
Rotherham, the surprise outfit (alongside Portsmouth) in this section continue to maintain their form and at a general even money look a value bet to dispose of Gillingham who continue not to live up to the high hopes held of them in this camp. More speculative is the 16-5 for a Wimbledon win at Millwall - this looks tighter than those odds imply and they performed well against Ipswich last weekend. Definitely overpriced for a London Derby.
Div 2
QPR (8-11) can dispose of Blackpool. Cardiff with Earnshaw going well can land another home win against Wycombe. Away wins for Oldham (11-8) and Wigan (7-5) also look entirely possible.
Div 3
When will the Torquay bubble burst - not long now we suspect . However, they are in such form at present that 5-4 looks the bet against modest and struggling Boston. Rushden to win at Exeter is a little more speculative but with Exeter on a downward spiral the 11-8 is worth considering.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Nothing really appeals.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
After having fun at Scotland's expense last time, could it be England who fail to win in Slovakia. They appear to have been written off and only a win for the English is anticipated in the Press. With England often under performing against lesser lights it would come as no surprise in this quarter at least if a draw turned up at the end of 90 minutes.
Recommended bet
*** Rotherham (1-1) to beat Gillingham
** Torquay (5-4) to beat Boston
* Wimbledon to beat Millwall (16-5)
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
Enjoy your weekends!
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 6
Friday, 20 September 2002
Hello. Firstly, this will be the last posting for the next two weekends (sorry about that) but a trip to Poland beckons. As always, I will have my ear close to the ground for betting opportunities. Secondly, let's get straight into this week's action.
The Domestic Weekend
Premiership
No great appeal. As mentioned below, Birmingham @ 4-1 v Middlesboro is worth a second look following a good spell for "the Blues". However, Middlesboro are generally sound at home. It will be closer than 4-1 implies. Manchester City, so enterprising in defeat at Arsenal look sound value at 2-1 to add to West Ham's woes if they can repeat that effort here.
Div 1
Rotherham to beat Brighton (8-11) stands out. But the Millers have let us down before and are passed over with Brighton desperate for any reward. Of more interest are Ipswich (5-4) at Stoke (may be outclassed) and Nottingham Forest (6-4) who are young and improving at Grimsby who are in decline.
Div 2
Oldham (coming good) are worth close inspection at average Colchester. Cheltenham must have chances at Mansfield (who continue to leak goals for fun). Cardiff should do the same against Notts County whose goals against column is steadily increasing just now while Wigan look the obvious home win banker.
Div 3
Some nice looking potential bets here. Bournemouth at Darlington looks tempting in view of recent form while Orient at Exeter (they have a good record there) could also deliver. Oxford who delivered one of the recommended bets last week might be worth getting stuck into against a Hull side who are talented but lacking in consistency. 5-4 is best price. Rochdale and Torquay are two other side in fine heart against opponents who are struggling overall at the moment.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Nothing really appeals.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Wrexham at Rushden could provide it. The Welshman have hit form with a vengeance. Rushden who have shown signs of weakness of late may struggle to deliver the 8-11 quotes. Don't include in home lists. Birmingham at 4-1 v Middlesboro could provide another.
Recommended bet
Manchester City @ 2-1 against West Ham
Ipswich @ 5-4 against Stoke ***
Nottingham Forest @ 6-4 against Grimsby
Oldham @13-8 against Colchester
Cardiff @6-5 against Notts County *
Bournemouth @15-8 against Darlington **
*** Best bet ** Next best * Third best
Enjoy your weekends!
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 5
Wednesday, 11 September 2002
Hello. The Spy has been off on his travels to Stockholm this week (no doubt researching some bet or the other!) and provided this early view of the weekend action to me early this week before he left. He was very pleased that last week's bet recommendation on Saracens looks even better after the weekend's results - their price has been cut quite significantly. He tells me he is on the case of a good bet in the Heineken Cup so keep reading in the coming weeks. His ante-post football bets continue to lead the way although its early days yet.
The Domestic Weekend
Looks tough especially taking value into account. Div 1 looks the best option with Portsmouth, Coventry and Nottingham Forest looking sound home winners. Less confidence in Burnley and Leicester but they may be of some interest on most recent form.
Premiership - nothing appeals. Div 2 - Oldham should be able to capitalise on Mansfield's leaky rearguard. Crewe should come home with the points from London Road on recent away displays (Jack is on fire). In Div 3, Hull look to be coming good (at last) and should take care of Carlisle. Oxford (good winners in the Cup midweek) can take care of average Boston.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Nothing stands out.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Nothing this week.
Recommended bet
Oxford to beat Boston
Crewe to beat Peterborough
Enjoy your weekends!
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 4
Thursday, 05 September 2002
Hello. A truncated programme this week (no Premiership or full Scottish fixtures) with a set of European friendly matches (where I cannot find any value at all) and some tricky Scottish Cup matches making up the weekend coupon. Our summary is given below of what I consider the best bets - we have some recommended bets again this week. On that issue, our first recommended bet of the season (Gillingham) failed last week (apologies) - the Spy's fingers were also burnt! - I hope to put that right this week.
The Domestic Weekend
In Div 1, Derby should overcome what has become an awful Burnley side and are 1-2 to do so. Norwich (rampant at home) should be too strong for Sheffield Utd - they are 8-11. Rotherham (defying expectations and starting well) at 6-5 to overcome Reading makes some appeal.
In Div 2, Crewe at 8-13 to overcome Chesterfield stands out while QPR to dispose of Mansfield @ 5-4 makes some appeal after Mansfield's horror show last week. Notts County v Oldham can go the way of the home side at 5-4.
In Div 3, Cambridge @ 6-5 to beat slow starting Hull looks good if they can reproduce the show that swept aside Rushden last week. Bristol Rovers at 6-4 should hold sway over a modest Macclesfield outfit. Kidderminster at 11-10 looks big for a home win over newcomers Boston who look very poor at times to me.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Not sure there is one! Could the Faroe Islands upset Scotland?
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Could come at Wigan (8-13) to dispose of Wycombe. Wycombe on a roll with Wigan faltering are the ingredients for a shock. The away is 4-1, the draw a big looking 5-2 or thereabouts.
Recommended bet
Kidderminster @ 11-10 to beat Boston.
Notts County @ 6-5 to beat Oldham
Cambridge @ 6-5 to beat Hull
QPR @ 5-4 to beat Mansfield.
Rotherham @ 6-5 to beat Reading.
Enjoy your weekends!
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 3
Saturday, 31 August 2002
Hello. We'll keep this brief this week as once again after close examination of the weekend's fixed odds coupons there does not appear to be an abundance of outstanding bets on offer although we think there is one match which represents an outstanding value bet. More of that below.
The European Cup
The draw now being made, I recommend that the 10-1 Arsenal should be taken. They have started domestically the way they left off last season and the relative lack of travelling afforded them by the "comfortable" draw was all I have been waiting for to make this recommendation. Although, this cup is always going to take plenty of winning, the 10-1 looks entirely reasonable value when you consider the depth of talent within the Arsenal ranks and the manner in which they destroyed so many teams at Highbury in this competition last term (Bayer Leverkusen stays in my mind) which means that any tightening up/improvement in their away performances will give them a big shout.
The Domestic Weekend
As we said above, little appeals. Our thoughts on the Premiership matches are;
Leeds (win), Man City (win), Bolton (win), Arsenal (win), Blackburn (win), Man Utd (win), Spurs (win), Fulham (win) and West Ham (win). Perhaps' Blackburn offers the most value in a tightly priced market.
In Div 1, Burnley are in trouble (their manager feels they were so bad midweek that he wants to leave) so Crystal Palace are worth a second look. But they in turn are looking mediocre. Norwich to overcome Watford and Portsmouth to see off Brighton (although the element of Derby rivalry makes this risky) despite Brighton's poor form. Wolves at Wimbledon must be considered. Nothing merits consideration in Div 2 and 3 or Scotland (although new boys Gretna make a little appeal).
But in our view, Gillingham (4-1 best price) but available at 7-2 and 100-30 more generally represent an outstanding value bet against Leicester. In their favour is a hard working unit who concede little and are proving exceptionally difficult to beat. There only defeat so far a respectable defeat at Norwich (1-0) where they could quite easily have got a draw but for the woodwork. Leicester were poor in midweek against Crystal Palace and as we said previously were woeful in defence against Ipswich. They defied our expectations last week by scrapping past Reading but that was more down to the limitations of Reading who with more ambition could have got a point. It all points therefore to being close - the pace of the Gillingham front line should worry Leicester to death - and if they do get ahead the Gillingham backline gives little away (only conceded 1 goal at most in all their matches so far). As they are not a 4-1 chance - I see this being fairly even taking into account home advantage - this generous price must be snapped up in a win single.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
A danger of putting all our eggs in one basket here but lets go for the correct score suggestion of 1-0 (9-1) and 2-1 (16-1) for Gillingham to beat Leicester.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Rangers (1-3) look dodgy and very short at Dunfirmline who are going well enough.
Recommended bet
Gillingham to beat Leicester @4-1
Arsenal to win Champion's League @10-1
Enjoy your weekends!
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - WEEK 2
Friday, 23 August 2002
Hello again. A quiet week overall on the football front. It was interesting to note the Racing Post approach to the new environment for fixed odds betting (I refer to the acceptance of single bets across the board on the fixed odds coupons) led them mirror our advice to you in week 1 in that their selections last week included single win selections on a range of matches only. No trebles or longer accumulators for them anymore I suspect.
Our ante-post selections could hardly have started better lying first and second, first and first in their respective sections. The Conference bets have started less well particularly on Farnborough. I suggest that as they have drifted to 33-1 generally that you top up bets before the weekend where I expect a home win over Halifax will lead to a shortening of their odds. Two matches do not make a bad side - have faith. Morecombe (one win and one draw) have not started too bad but can still be backed at 18-1.
We recommended no bet last week and I think the many surprises across the coupon justified that approach. I said there would be plenty more opportunities to come over the coming weeks - this week unfortunately does not fall into that category. So, again the advice is to keep that powder dry. Despite the surprises we still managed some good value picks with Gillingham (6-4) probably the best along with Leeds, Coventry and Plymouth.
For those who want our thoughts, here they are;
Premiership
Consider closely Blackburn at Birmingham, Newcastle at Man City and Leeds at West Bromwich. However, the odds are tight enough (Newcastle would possibly be the best value overall).
Division 1
Burnley @11-10 appeal for a home win against Sheffield United. Turf Moor is a bit of a fortress and despite stating slowly Burnley were a far better side last season than Sheffield (who in turn have not shown much so far) - home advantage can tell.
Coventry (a bit short at 8-11) should overcome Crystal Palace who they traditionally do well against.
Portsmouth to overcome Watford (no more than an average side) - Portsmouth appear to be on the up.
Take a chance on Brighton (sure to be well supported at Selhurst) against the troubled Dons.
Division 2
Little here. I wouldn't want to oppose Bristol City against Wycombe (very leaky defence).
Division 3
Nothing really appeals here either. Hartlepool should overcome Torquay at Plainmoor who are conceding plenty of goals so far.
THE WEEKEND FUN BET
Nearly came off last week with Henry scoring first and Arsenal shooting into an early 2-0 lead last week. (We predicted this by with a heavier defeat at big odds of course). This week we suggest backing the draw options in a number of local (or near) Derby matches - such matches often end in this way with teams raising their games and the formbook thrown out of the window - so consider the draw at Boston, Cheltenham and Mansfield in a small accumulator.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Another failure last week (we chose Man United) but our sentiments were right largely and the Racing Post endorsed our thoughts the next day saying the odds did not reflect the chances of either a WB draw or win. It was certainly closer than many people thought or suggested.
This week's shock. Well we're tempted to go for Man U again at Chelsea but we will drop down to Div 1 and select 8-13 Leicester at home to Reading as one to avoid. Leicester were destroyed by Ipswich last week and have injury worries in key areas. Their defence according to Ipswich sources left plenty to be desired (very slow) even before the injuries played their part last week in that 6-1 thrashing. Reading may be looking for a draw after an opening day lesson at Derby and as they generally have few problems scoring can sneak a draw at worst.
Enjoy your football.
THE SPY.
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND" - Week
1
Thursday, 15 August 2002
Welcome back. Hope you are "on" our ante-post selections (see separate article) as they have all started really well and without exception their prices have been cut after the opening exchanges. However, it's early days. Remember there is still time to get those Conference bets on (Farnborough and Morecombe) as that section kicks off this weekend.
Well it had to happen didn't it? Singles are now available on all matches on the fixed odds coupons. This really does mean a whole new culture in the way we should approach fixed odds betting with there no longer being the need to find three or five matches to complete bets with away and home wins included. I really would advise a close analysis of the way you bet - you are programmed into choosing any number of matches - this is no longer necessary and there can be no excuse for saying "I was unlucky - I got 4 out of 5 right this week" (unless of course that particular method of betting still appeals to you). But, overall I believe that choosing a smaller number of matches to bet on must be the way ahead. Search out for that single bet and have any extra stake on that where possible - the win ratio will be high. Hartlepool (4-6) to overcome Boston midweek was my first large bet along these lines and the result was never really in doubt. Look to do the same.
Having got that out of the way, I think it is best that there is no recommendations this week having looked in detail at the coupon. There is a long way to go and plenty of opportunities will arise! Having said "no recommendations" the following analysis may be of help to those who wish to get involved;
Premiership
Leeds @ 4-5 to beat Manchester City looks on the generous side bearing in mind home advantage and the depth of talent in the Leeds squad.
I cannot see an upset at Arsenal (a big home win score forecast could be advisable and provide some fun). Try 4-0 and 5-0 doubled up with Henry to score first. That's around 33-1 and upwards I believe.
Division 1
Gillingham @ 6-4 to overcome Millwall looks reasonable value on what we have seen of these two sides so far. Derby manager John Gregory thought Gillingham had no obvious weaknesses in midweek which is pleasing for our ante-post investment while Millwall have had a shaky start.
Sheffield United @ 8-11 against Walsall (who seem destined to struggle again) seems reasonable
Watford @11-10 could be entertained against a Wimbledon outfit who have played poorly both starts. But Watford are no great shakes.....
Sheffield Wednesday @ 5-2 make some appeal to win at Nottingham Forest after an encouraging midweek display despite losing at Reading
Coventry @ 7-4 are short enough but may have to much class for Reading
Division 2
Not a lot here. Plymouth @ 11-10 should be good enough to overcome Luton who have begun by conceding plenty of goals
Notts County @ 11-4 might surprise a poor Stockport side
Division 3
Hartlepool @ 4-7 should have too much firepower for Macclesfield and continue there good start which has carried on from last season
Wrexham @ 4-6 may have to many guns up front for a Boston side who are finding their way.
Overall though, nothing to get over exited about in our view so a no bet recommendation this week.
THE WEEKEND SHOCK
Could that come at Old Trafford? Sounds crazy with West Bromwich the visitors. It's a best price 9-2 the draw and 12-1 for the Baggies to win. I say this after watching the appalling show by United in Hungary last night. Unless Giggs (clueless), Van Nistelrooy (out of touch) and Beckham (lifeless) take some viagra you have to wonder if odds of 1-5 are justified. Add to that a backline of extreme vulnerability in my view and the surprise result does not look impossible with Albion sure to be in the "nothing to lose" frame of mind. They were very tough to beat last season and it could be that a draw is within their grasp providing the fear factor does not take over. Fulham lost 3-2 in similar circumstances last season so the potential is there for an upset. Just keep United out of those accumulators and Long List selections to be on the safe side.
Good luck to you all and enjoy your football wherever you see it.
THE SPY.
|
