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Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent each-way claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
Latest
Horse racing News
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at
each-way odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE). Any runner from our features are shown
before each race's analysis.
AINTREE
John Smith´s Grand National Meeting ╤ [Day
Two]
Saturday, April 9
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨First┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 1.45 John Smith´s Extra Smooth Handicap
Hurdle (A) (Listed Race) 19 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be
run over 2`Miles~110yds Penalty £29000 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → A competitive-looking handicap
opens the card and chances can be given to several of these- Međìson,
Grande Jete, Handy Money, Stance, Definate Spectacle, Victram, Chivalry,
Crossbow Creek, Boleyknowsbest, King Eider and Atahuelpa would be the
horse's I'd single out. If our One To Jump feature had been in operation
this season, we'd be going into this doubly-handed as both Međison and
Grand Jete can be given strong claims here. Grand Jete ran a great race in
the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, when looking
the likeliest winner until the last when making a bad mistake, though his
fourth placing was still a great run considering he hadn't run for the
best part of a year prior to that. In theory he should come on for that
run, however Nicky Henderson has hardly had a horse perform here this week
and as much as I would like him to oblige, he looks miserly on the basis
of current stable form. You'd have to same the same about Martin Pipe's
stable as a lot of the horses who performed for him this week has shown
the effects of a long season. Even allowing for this, I am drawn towards
Međison who I have noted from the days he ran in bumpers in France who I
have been waiting for him to mature enough to be able to translate his
potential into a decent effort on the racecourse...finally in the Imperial
Cup my wait ended as you will never see a more easy winner of a
competitive handicap. The ease by which he brushed aside his rivals was
very reminiscent of Relkeel performing a similar feat at the same venue
five or six years ago and he earnt the 16lb rise he has been given today.
There has been a lot of took about him being the stable's Arkle horse next
season, however that in my view is premature as although he gives the
impression he would be a decent 'tool' over fences, I still believe he is
capable of winning a decent hurdle off of this mark. I'm not 100% certain
he is mentally strong enough to do this today, however I'd be inclined to
give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he has improved enough between
races to overcome the weight hike this time around.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Međison (FR)
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Grand Jete (SAF)
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Handy Money
¦¨¨4°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Lunar Crystal (e/w)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Second┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 2.15 John Smith´s Maghull Novices´
steeple´CH. (A) (Grade 1) 11 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will
be run over 2`Miles~ Penalty £63800 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → This appears to be a re-run of the
Arkle Chase and although there wasn't much to choose between Ashleybrook
and Contraband on that occasion, I can't see the placings being reversed
between these if Contraband runs to form today. It is unlikely that the
third home River City, My Will and Dempsey will reverse form. However, War
Of Attrition's lack of experience told that day and he might improve
placings here though I have a suspicion he would be better over further.
The surprise package might be Saintsaire who has flattered to deceive over
hurdles before, however, he did win easily on his chasing debut and would
be feared more if the Henderson camp were in better form going into this
race. That said, he may be worth an interest.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Contraband
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →River City
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Saintsaire (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Third┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 2.50 John Smith´s No Nonsense Handicap
Hurdle (A) (Listed Race) 24 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be
run over 2`Miles~4f Penalty £23200 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → I struggled with this race, if I'm
honest and I'm far from convinced that I've 'sussed it out'. Sharp
Rigging, Celtic Son, Westmeath Flyer, Barrow Drive, Billyvoddan,
Fontanesì, Genghis, Migwell, Mirpour, The Market Man, Fênix, Healy´s Pub,
Lord Of Beauty and Royaléety are the ones I'd give chances to. I can see
why Sharp Rigging will appeal after falling at the second last in the
Coral Cup, however he does seem to have plenty of weight here and I'd
prefer to pass him over. I'm not sure that Celtic Son is going to run
again today after failing to win yesterday. However, if he does line up,
he might still run well here. I wouldn't be prepared to dismiss him simply
because he was beaten yesterday. Billyvoddan is a solid performer who is
sure to run his race and probably would have been the each-way choice of
the race, had I not selected The Market Man. However, I'm going to take a
chance with Nicky Henderson's runner - a promising import from New Zealand
who has run well on each of his three starts over obstacles, most recently
at Doncaster in January where he easily beat Say What You See by 15
lengths. My enthusiasm is somewhat tempered by the stable's lack of form
at the meeting, however at around 12/1 there is some value here and I'll
take a chance on him making it to the frame for each-way punters.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → The Market Man (NZ), (e/w)
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Celtic Son (FR)
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Healy's Pub
¦¨¨4°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Billyvoddan
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Fourth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 3.20 Scottish And Newcastle Aintree
Hurdle (A) (Grade 1) 9 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run
over 2`Miles~4f Penalty £87000 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → A decent renewal of the Aintree
Hurdle where I would give chances to most of these. I'd single out Inglis
Drever, Brave Inca, Macs Joy, Accordion Etoile, Blue Canyon and Intersky
Falcon. Inglis Drever will probably be made favourite on the day having
lowered the colours of Baracouda in the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham
Festival, however I'd prefer Brave Inca who ran a big race in the Champion
Hurdle to finish a close 3rd to Hardy Eustace and Harchibald. In what
seems likely to be a tactical race, his blend of speed and guts may just
get him home. I've liked the improvement shown by Blue Canyon this season
and this raider may just creep into a place for France.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Brave Inca
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Inglis Drever
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Blue Canyon (FR) (e/w)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Fifth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 4.10 John Smith´s Grand National
steeple´CH. (Handicap) (A) (Grade 3) 41 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this
race will be run over 4`Miles~4f Penalty £406000 6-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → This has to be the most open Grand
National ever with all the horses being in the handicap proper for the
first time ever. As a result, you will not be too surprised that you could
make cases for a lot of these: Clan Royal, Hedgehunter, Strong Resolve,
Forest Gunner, Amberleigh House, Colnel Rayburn, Joly Bey, Innox, It Takes
Time, Nil Desperandum, Take The Stand, Marcus Du Berlais, Bindaree, Double
Honour, Just In Debt, Lord Atterbury, Spot Thedifference, Ad Hoc, Monty´s
Pass, Ĵakari, Royal Auclair, Fondmort, Frenchman´s Creek, Héros Collongés,
L´Aventure, Ballycassidy, Foly Pleasant, Iznogoud and Le Coudray all can
be given chances if they get themselves into a Rythym. The sort of horse I
tend to choose in this race are horses that have either won at this venue
over the National course or they have proven themselves to be thorough
stayers´ or they just have performed well in better company. That
therefore would leave me with a list of the following candidates:
Clan Royal
Hedgehunter
Strong Resolve
Forest Gunner
Amberleigh House
Colnel Rayburn
Joly Bey
Innox
It Takes Time
Nil Desperandum
Take The Stand
Marcus Du Berlais
Bindaree
Double Honour
Lord Atterbury
Spot Thedifference
Ad Hoc
Monty´s Pass
Royal Auclair
Fondmort
L´Aventure
Le Coudray
Recent horse form would eliminate Bindaree, Monty's Pass and Ad Hoc,
whilst I would have to eliminate Amberleigh House, mainly because I
believe he will get round, however the poor record of his age group plus
today's weight of 11st. 3lbs may prove his undoing. If I'm honest, I'm not
convinced about the claims of the Gold Cup runners Royal Auclair and Take
A Stand and I would also remove them from my list of candidates. This
leaves the following horses:
Clan Royal
Hedgehunter
Strong Resolve
Forest Gunner
Colnel Rayburn
Joly Bey
Innox
It Takes Time
Nil Desperandum
Marcus Du Berlais
Double Honour
Lord Atterbury
Spot Thedifference
Fondmort
L´Aventure
Le Coudray
In my opinion, the winner will come from this group of runners and if I'm
honest the one that makes most appeal of Forest Gunner. Whilst I have some
reservations about the trip, his form at Aintree and Haydock has
demonstrated his ability to jump these types of drop fences well and if he
gets into a Rythym early and isn't harried into going faster than he can
early on, the ground that he will make at each obstacle will magnify by
the time they enter the last mile or so where doubts about him probably
lie the most. His main weakness however is probably the long run-in as I
could foresee a scenario where he leads at the last, however fails to
quicken as much as he would up this long run-in and that is a big concern
of mine today. However, he appeals far more to me than Clan Royal who is
difficult to choose with Jonjo O'Neill's stable performing so badly.
Hedgehunter, who didn't seem to get home last year before taking a
horrible fall at the last, may more significantly not have a cut at these
fences because of his bad experience last year.
Lord Atterbury appeals again more this year. However, he jumped
appallingly last year and that again might just be his undoing. And whilst
he is the sort that might again make the frame, the horses that I fear
most are Innox and Strong Resolve if they jump round, and Spot
Thedifference who is guaranteed to stay and will be running on better than
most of these. As well as the classy horses of the race like Nil
Desperandum, It Takes Time and Fondmort, who have that touch of class but
are not guaranteed to stay based on recent form, these last three suit
punters looking for a class act who might run well for them at each-way
odds. If you're looking for a horse to run well at massive odds, the three
likeliest candidates are in my opinion Fondmort, L´Aventure (a
temperamental six-year-old who will fly up the running if she puts her
mind to it) and top-weight Le Coudray who was going very well at the 2nd
Bechers last year when getting rid of his pilot. His form this season does
not inspire confidence, however the stable are in form and it would not
surprise me if he crept into a place. N.B. Shop around - plenty of
bookmakers will be offering 5 places on this race.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Forest Gunner
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Spot Thedifference
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Nil Desperandum
¦¨¨4°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Le Coudray (FR) (e/w)
¦¨¨5°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Fondmort (FR) (e/w)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Sixth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 4.55 John Smith´s Novices´ Handicap
steeple´CH. (B) (For Amateur Riders) 10 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this
race will be run over 2`Miles~4f Penalty £19198 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ →
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Schuh Shine (e/w)
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Almost Broke
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Caribbean Cove
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Seventh┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 5.30 John Smith´s Champion Standard
Open National Hunt Flat (A) (Grade 2) 22 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this
race will be run over 2`Miles~1f Penalty £17400 4, 5 and 6-Year-Olds
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ →
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Noland
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Itsmyboy
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Craçboumŵiz (e/w)
AINTREE
John Smith´s Grand National Meeting ╤ [Day Two]
Friday, April 8, 2005
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨First┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 2.00 John Smith´s Mildmay Novices´
steeple´CH. [A] [Grade 2] 12 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will
be run over 3`Miles~1f Penalty £43500 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → Although this is a decent-looking
line-up there doesn't are to be real quality in depth and as a result this
Grade-2 event will probably take a lot of winning. Sveral can be
entertained; Jazz d´Estruvaļ, Lacdoudal, Like-A-Butterfly, L´Ami, Control
Man, Whitford Don, Well Presented and Chauvinist, look the leading
candidates. Lacdoudal, who ran a mighty race in the Jewson Novices'
Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival deserves his chance in listed
company and I can see him running well if he stays... however if
Like-A-Butterfly and L´Ami, haven't left their form behind them, they,
Jazz d´Estruvaļ and Well Presented probably have a little more class than
him. Like-A-Butterfly bounced back from a slightly disappointing run in
the Sun Alliance Chase to land the Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse
ten days ago and this former top-class hurdler has to be respected, even
though this may be coming a little too soon, however Jazz d´Estruvaļ gets
the vote, particularly as the stable has a great first day yesterday. This
horse has always been held in the highest of regards, however although he
fell last time out, his victory the time before, when he thrashed
Trabolgan at Haydock Park, was a decent effort and this fresh horse could
be hard to beat if he puts in a clear round. L´Ami hasn't jumped well
lately, however he ran well at Cheltenham and can again make the frame if
he gets into a rhythm.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Jazz d´Estruvaļ (FR),
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → L´Ami (FR),
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Like-A-Butterfly
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Second┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 2.35 John Smith´s Top Novices´ Hurdle
[A] [Grade 2] 7 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over
2`Miles~110yds Penalty £29000 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → The second race looks wide open...
With the possible exception of Napolitain, [didn't the Nichol's stable
horses generally perform badly yesterday?]; cases can be made for Dusky
Warbler, Marcel, Mighty Man, Sea Captain, Astronomic and Nyrche. Dusky
Warbler, formerly a very useful stayer on the Flat, has taken well to
jumping and gave the impression that a strongly-run two-mile race was just
what he wanted, when running a great race in the Letheby & Christopher
Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, travelling well on the outside
before making a bid for glory coming down the hill. He had every chance at
the last, however didn't quicken as well as the winner Arcalis, eventually
coming home third, 6½ lengths behind the winner. If he replicated that
form he'd oblige here, however this is more likely to be a tactical affair
and he could be vulnerable. Mighty Man and Sea Captain are improving
novices, who are closely matched on their recent meeting at Sandown Park
twenty-eight days ago. Mighty Man came out on top, however Sea Captain may
have obliged if he had been delivered later and I prefer him of these.
Marcel and Astronomic are also closed matched on their earlier efforts
this season, however both have gone off the boil. That said Marcel was by
far the best of these earlier this season. He ran no sort of race in his
last two starts, however he was definitely the best of these before
that... Normally I would have ignored him here, however his opponents may
have just left the door open for him to take this... If I was going to
have a bet here, [at the moment I don't], then I would probably batch him
at a hopefully better price than the tactically vulnerable Dusky Warbler.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Marcel (FR),
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Sea Captain,
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Dusky Warbler,
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Third┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 3.10 John Smith´s Melling steeple´CH.
[A] [Grade 1] 6 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over
2`Miles~4f Penalty £87000 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → Moscow Flyer .... Next?!! ... You
cant seriously oppose this horse, who is without doubt one of the best
horses we seen of late, and is definitely the best horse in training at
present. The rest of the field has queries hanging over them... Le Roi
Miguel and Therealbandit are classy individuals on their day and look
likeliest to follow Moscow Flyer home
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Moscow Flyer,
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Therealbandit,
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Le Roi Miguel (FR),
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Fourth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 3.45 John Smith´s And Spar Topham
steeple´CH. [Handicap] [B] 30 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will
be run over 2`Miles~5f 110yds Penalty £46400 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → This appears to be a typically
open renewal of the Topham, and plenty of these appeal. Jųveigneur and
Liberŧhine, [who both won at the Cheltenham Festival], head the market,
however they strong opposition, from the likes of John James, Longshanks,
Boy's Hurrah, Impek, Whereareyounow, Le Duç, Colca Canyon, Haut De Gamme
and Be My Better Half. Jųveigneur heads the market and after landing the
Kim Muir Chase at Cheltenham in such convincing fashion, must go well here
if she jumps round, however having backed Liberŧhine at the Festival I am
loathed to oppose her, especially as Sam Waley-Cohen gave this daughter of
Chamberlin (FR), one of the rides of the Festival in the Mildmay of Flete
Handicap Chase (Grade 3) - dropping her out the rear before creeping into
contention at the top of the hill. She made rapid headway turning for home
and after taking it up between the last two fences, bounded up the hill in
splendid isolation, eventually coming home 7lengths of the second Banker
Count. She has been raised 10lbs for that effort, however that was an such
an authoratative win I believe that she can defy the penalty if she jumps
round. Boy's Hurrah usually jumps for fun, so I can see him running well
and both he and Be My Better Half are my each-way alternatives.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Liberŧhine (FR),
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Be My Better Half, [e/w]
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Jųveigneur (FR),
¦¨¨4°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Boy's Hurrah ,
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Fifth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 4.20 John Smith´s Nussl Sefton Novices´
Hurdle [A] [Grade 1] 17 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run
over 3`Miles~110yds Penalty £46400 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → There are plenty of possibles for
this staying heat and there should be a decent pace from flagfall. Moulin
Riche, Asian Maze, Gold Medallist, Brewster, Bewleys Berry, Rebel Rhythm,
Teeming Rain, Loup Charter, Black Apalachi and Idle Talk make most appeal.
Gold Medallist, is probably th key to this race, especially if he attempts
to make all - as was the case in all his starts prior to the Royal &
SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle, where he again tried to make all, however
where as he was able to dominate his rivals before, he was harried here
and though he gave everything, he was swamped turning for home, eventually
coming home fifth behind No Refuge, [btn. 3lengths]. He may find things
easier over today's trip of 3m1f, however he looks vulnerable again here
to a finisher and Moulin Riche, Asian Maze and Bewleys Berry, could well
do him for toe again today. Moulin Riche was an easy winner of the Brit
Insurance Novices' Hurdle at the Festival and is sure to go well again
here today, however Bewleys Berry was an unlucky faller early on in that
race and this former top-class pointer in Ireland, has previously
pulverniresed a field in landing the River Don Novices' Hurdle, [Grade 2]
at Doncaster in January '05. As long as he hasn't suffered any ill affects
after that run, I can see him going close today.. and therefore he gets
the nod today.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Bewleys Berry,
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Moulin Riche (FR),
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Asian Maize,
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Sixth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 4.55 Betfair.com Handicap steeple´CH.
[B] 12 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over 3`Miles~1f
Penalty £29000 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → Sleeping Night is sure to be a
popular choice with punters, reverting back to handicap company after
landing the Cheltenham Foxhunters last-time-out, however he has plenty of
weight here and although we know that he was previously a useful performer
over fences, he is definitely vulnerable, [especially as a lot of the
horses from Ditcheat disappointed yesterday], to the likes of Zeta´s
River, Lord Of The River, Hand Inn Hand, Horus, Koçk De La Vesvré,
Marlborough and Dark´N Sharp, who look to be his main threats. Zeta´s
River appeals most as this son of Over The River is lightly-raced and
missed Cheltenham after being balloted out of the Kim Muir. This is quite
a stiff ask for a horse only having his sixth start, however he was
impressive when winning at Newbury thirty-four days ago and as he is open
to most improvement could go close here off of only 10-0, before going
onto better things next season.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Zeta´s River
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Koçk De La Vesvré (FR),
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Sleeping Night (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Seventh┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 5.30 John Smith´s Extra Cold Handicap
Hurdle [A] [Listed Race] 22 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be
run over 3`Miles~110yds Penalty £23200 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → The last race on the card is a
puzzle, which is resolved on whether punters believe that Celtic Son can
be beaten, after his dramatic rise through the ranks this winter, or
wither the likes of Carly´s Quest, Savannah Bay, Holland Park,
Paperprophet, Miỏche d´Estruvaļ, Fountain Hill, Ballylusky, The Dark Lord
or Touch Closer can cause a surprise. If I'm honest I don't believe that
he will be beaten as he still appears to be nicely treated off of today's
mark of 135, however I suspect that he will go off at a ridiculous price
and therefore I'll oppose him purely because of this factor and take a
chance with his stablemate Miỏche d´Estruvaļ, [each-way], who ran a big
race in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, belying his odds of 66/1 by
making good headway from the rear from the top of the hill, seemingly
going best on the long run to two out. He cruised there at the last,
however so did the winner Oulart, who showed more pace than he did after
the last, putting 2lengths between himself as our selection today. This
black son of Lute Antique, is still a big baby, however he looks like the
sort that should develop into a nice chasing prospect in the next eighteen
months or so, as long as he has mentally got over his exertions at
Cheltenham, he must have a decent chance of finishing in the frame....
well lets hope so anyway!!!
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Miỏche d´Estruvaļ (FR), [e/w]
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Celtic Son (FR),
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Paperprophet
¦¨¨4°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Carly´s Quest,
AINTREE
John Smith´s Grand National Meeting ╤ [Day One]
Thursday, April 7, 2005
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨First┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 2.00 John Smith´s And Batleys Liverpool
Hurdle [A] [Registered As The Long Distance Hurdle Race] [Grade 2] 9
runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over 3`Miles~110yds
Penalty €UR,34800 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → This opening stayer 's hurdle
probably centres around whether punters believe that Rule Supreme will
bounce back after an honourable third placing behind Inglis Drever and
Baracouda in the Ladbroke World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. On that
form, he would appear to safely hold Korelơ and Westender who finished
behind him that day, however ground conditions currently aren´t in his
favour, and he must be vulnerable here, especially as he is prone to hit a
flat-spot during his races. A more-tactfully ridden Westender could well
set his rivals here a stiff task, however I can't help thinking that
Korelơ is worth another chance, especially as he stayed on strongly after
looking in trouble at the top of the hill. Although he has a bit to find
his previous two starts, [again at Cheltenham] particularly at the hands
of Patriach Express, suggest he is capable of going close and could the
each-way value of the race. If Cheltenham form is overturned, it will
surely be at the hands of Monet's Garden, who has been specifically aimed
at this event and will have claims if he reproduces the form shown
last-time-out, when coming home second behind Crystal d´Ainay in the
Rendlesham Hurdle at Kempton Park fourty days ago, [btn. 3½ lengths].
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Korelơ (FR), [e/w]
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Monet's Garden
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Rule Supreme
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Second┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 2.35 Betfair Bowl steeple´CH. [A]
[Grade 2] 8 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over
3`Miles~1f Penalty €UR,87000 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → Gold Cup form gets tested for the
first time in this open-looking heat, as Sir Rembrandt and Grey Abbey take
their chance against an interesting field. Sir Rembrandt arguably has the
strongest credentials as for the second year in succession he made the
frame in the "big one" this time coming home 13lengths behind Kicking
King. If you could guarantee that he will put his best foot forward he
would be hard to beat here, however he has become difficult to win with
and I'd suggest that you pass him over and put Grey Abbey up instead.
Although he finished him, Howard Johnston's grey is far more consistent
and although he has to give weight to most of these, I can see him giving
a good account of himself. Thisthatandtother will be popular, however this
horse is penalised for his Grade-1 win at the Festival and as he's
unproven at the trip is worth opposing... I like the two horses with most
to prove Crystal d´Ainay and Our Vic, who have promised so much, however
neither has yet lived up to expectations. Our Vic's jumping let him down
on both starts this term, however we know he still has ability and has
decent chances of getting in the frame, [could be an interesting each-way
bet], however Crystal d´Ainay makes most appeal as we know he is a useful
performer over hurdles and although he has yet to jump a fence in public
in the UK, he should plenty of promise in France for Guillaume Macaire and
if he is able to translate that form over here, is weighted to win this...
granted a decent round of jumping.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Crystal d´Ainay (FR)
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Our Vic, [e/w]
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Grey Abbey
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Third┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 3.10 John Smith´s Anniversary 4-Y-O
Novices´ Hurdle [A] [Grade 1] 13 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race
will be run over 2`Miles~110yds Penalty €UR,69600 4-Year-Olds only
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → This looks a good opportunity for
Faasel at get back into the winners' enclose after posting two top-class
efforts on his last two starts - a narrow second to Ebor winner Mephisto
at Kelso, followed a narrow defeat in the J.C.B. Triumph Hurdle at the
Cheltenham Festival, where he travelled strongly throughout with a visor
on for the first time over hurdles, however after looking the likelier
winner as they came to the last, he couldn´t match the pace of Penzance,
eventually going down by a head. He will take a deal of beating if he is
in the same sort of form today and gets my vote above Dabiroun [who was
very impressive when landing the Fred Winter H´dcp.. H´Dle, under Nina
Carberry at the Cheltenham Festival], and L´Oudon, who hasn't yet
translated the promise shown when trained in France, however he could do
no more that win easily last-time-out at Newbury and appeals as the best
each-way option in this line-up.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Faasel,
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Dabiroun,
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → L´Oudon (FR),
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Fourth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 3.45 John Smith´s Fox Hunters´
steeple´CH. [B] 30 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over
2`Miles~5f 110yds Penalty €UR,20300 6-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → A very open renewal of the Fox
Hunters, where you could be make cases for several of these - I would
single out Katarino, Gun´N´´ Roses II, Never Compromise, Beachcomber Bay,
Satchmo, Arctic Times, Cobrécès, Montifault, Star Jack, An Capall Dubh,
Tremallt, Caught At Dawn, Champagne Native, Gatsby, Cape Stormer, Mazileo,
Venn Ottery, and Coole Abbey as potential winners. It is difficult to get
away from Katarino, who bar injury would almost certainly have built on
Grade-1 victories in the 1999 Triumph Hurdle and I.A.W.S. Champion Four
Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown. He hasn´t raced under rules since falling
at "The Chair" in the 2003 Grand National, however he has posted two easy
wins between the flags and will be hard to beat if he puts in a clear
round. It is hard not imagining Gun´N´ Roses II, Never Compromise, Satchmo
or Arctic Times not being far away if they jump around, however if you´re
looking for a long-shot, then either Gatsby, [who ran really well in the
Christies Fox Hunters at the Cheltenham Festival]; or Venn Ottery, [who
probably just stays this trip in this company and still possesses ability,
but has been given the most unorthodox preparation] might scrape into the
money
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Katarino (FR),
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Artic Times,
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Gun´N´ Roses II,
¦¨¨4°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Gatsby, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Fifth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 4.20 John Smith´s Red Rum Handicap
steeple´CH. [A] [Grade 3] 16 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will
be run over 2`Miles~ Penalty €UR,40600 5-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → Fota Island, Kadounť, Ćaracciola,
L´Ange Au Ciel, Non So and Golden Alpha, are the leading candidates for
this 3200m heat. Punters may well latch onto Fota Island, who was stayed
on strongly to land the "Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup
(Handicap)" [Grade 3] at the Cheltenham Festival. This former-useful
hurdler is finally beginning to translate that ability over fences,
however he is 12lbs higher than that race today and others makes more
appeal primary Kadounť, who was travelling sweetly when unseating
"Chocolate" Thornton at the fourth-last. He was previously very impressive
when landing a Grade-2 chase at Wincanton in February '05 and is sure to
go close if he puts in a decent round. L´Ange Au Ciel who disappointed at
Cheltenham is much better than he showed that day and it would be no
surprise if he were to go close.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Kadounť (FR),
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → L´Ange Au Ciel (FR),
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Golden Alpha,
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Sixth┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 4.55 John Smith´s Mersey Novices´
Hurdle [A] [Grade 2] 10 runners → [RACE DISTANCE] -- this race will be run
over 2`Miles~4f Penalty €UR,29000 4-Year-Olds plus
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → Pole Star, Mephisto, Chilling
Place, My Way de Solzen, Bagan, Only Vintage and Turpin Green are the
leading candidates for this 4000m Grade-2 heat. I am a big fan of Pole
Star who looks as though he could as good as he was when performing on the
flat, however although he ran well behind No Refuge in the Royal &
SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham, he didn't, [not for the first
time], find as much off of the bridle as appeared likely a few furlongs
earlier. Connections are still learning about him over obstacles, which
means they may find a more "aggressive" way of maximizing his potential,
[even if this means dropping him back to 2miles] however he does look
vulnerable, even receiving weight from his main rivals and I am far keener
on the chances of Mephisto, who has built on each effort over obstacles,
and after catching the eye behind Ambőbo on his debut, has been unbeaten
since, most recently when edging out Faasel at Kelso thirty-three days
ago. He has aimed specifically at this race and despite conceding weight
to several of the main principle still appears to be the one to beat ...
and gets the nod.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Mephisto
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → My Way de Solzen (FR),
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Pole Star,
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨Seventh┬Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → 5.30 John Smith´s Hblb Mares´ Only
Standard Open National Hunt Flat [A] [Listed Race] 17 runners → [RACE
DISTANCE] -- this race will be run over 2`Miles~1f Penalty €UR,14500 4, 5
and 6-Year-Olds
╔═══╦¦¨¨¨“ªt¨the¨şost”¨¨¨¦╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╦═══╗
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨“₫ә¨ЯOOҚ,”¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ → I have no strong view on the
last... Lady Accord, Funny Times, Senorita Rumbalita, Grenfell, Heltornic,
Gay Gladys and Giovanna, are amongst those with chances... Grenfell ran
green, but still manage to beat Gay Gladys on her debut at Kempton Park
thirty-two days ago, and as that horse won impressively next-time-out at
Warwick, the form looks solid and she gave the impression that she'd
improve for that effort. Hughie Morrison's mare Hiho Silver Lining, [a
half-sister to three winners, including bumper scorer The Thunderer and
leading bumper performer/novice hurdler Secret Ploy], was badly hampered
on her debut at Exeter in January '05, won by Wishin´´ And Hopin, however
she wasn´t beaten that far by the winner and she could be of interest to
each-way supporters.
¦┬ ┬┬1°┬ŞLACE?┬┬┬┬¦ → Grenfell
¦¨¨2°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ → Senorita Rumbalita
¦¨¨3°┬¨şlace?¨¨¦ →Hiho Silver Lining, [e/w]
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