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Analysis & Selections by t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the
race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
[1er CHOICE], as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; [²E/W
ALTERNATIVE]. Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
AINTREE
Saturday 6th April 2002
1:45 Cordon Bleu H'cap Hurdle (Listed Race) £40000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £23200, 17 runners.
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¦ are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Idaho d'Ox (FR) and Tysou (FR)
¦ are there any runners from "FUTURE WINNERS" our feature which each week, notes horses to watch for follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Never (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>The Gatherer, Idaho d'Ox, Dark Shell, Benbyas, Milligan, Golden Alpha, Monkerhostin, Intersky Falcon, and The Dark Flasher head the market for this valuable handicap hurdle. Benbyas, a highly creditable fourth in the Country Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, is certain to attempt to stretch these. Both he and Intersky Falcon; another horse who likes to be handy could take a lot of catching here, however with so many strong hold up horses in the field, you expect the winner will come from one of these. The Gatherer, who finished in front of Benbyas in the County Hurdle is certain to go well again , however I'll be hoping that Dark Shell has come on for his first run (for almost a year) in that race. He was a class performer on the level and conditions are right for him here . The stable aren't having the best of festivals, however hopefully a win here will assist in picking up spirits for later on today. I expect Martin Pipe's runners (bar possibly Tissifer) to figure prominently, however The Dark Flasher is a horse that I've been watching in Ireland, and it wouldn't surprise me if this consistent handicapper didn't make the frame off of his lightweight.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Dark Shell
¦ e/w alternative ¦:¬>The Dark Flasher
2:20 Martell Maghull Novices' Steeple Ch. {Gr. 1} £75000 added, 5yo plus, 2m, penalty £44625, 5 runners.
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¦ are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Armaturk (FR), St Pirran & Fondmort (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Seebald, Armaturk, and Fondmort renew rivalry after second, third and fifth respectively in the
Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. The revised weights here favour the older horses, however
Armaturk could set them a merry task if he gets into his rhythm earliest. If that happen it wouldnt surprise me if he keeps these rivals at bay where it
matters most
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Armaturk (FR),
¦ e/w alternative ¦:¬>
2:55 Martell Aintree Hurdle {Gr. 1} £120000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £69600, 15 runners.
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¦ are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Azertyuiop (FR), Blue Royal (FR), Bounce Back (USA), Dibea Times (FR), Geos (FR), Ilnamar (FR), It Takes Time, and Rodock (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>. Cripes!!! I really don't like having to call races with so many runners from our "ONE TO JUMP" feature in the field. For a Grade 1 event, this looks to be extremely open ... Bilboa, The French Furze, Telemoss, Brother Joe, Azertyuiop, Blue Royal, Bounce Back, Dibea Times, Geos, Ilnamar, It Takes Time, and Rodock all have claims on their best form. Strictly on Champion Hurdle form, Bilboa is the horse to be on ... however I am "blinded" by the vision of her being outstayed by Stormez at Enghien just before Christmas. There are a couple of these (Telemoss, Brother Joe, and It Takes Time) who will appreciate it, if this is strongly run from the "off" , to place the emphasis on stamina. If this occurs at this level she could be found wanting. The same comments apply to Geos, who I must say that I am surprised that Mick Fitzgerald prefers over Blue Royal, particularly as this horse hasn't won over this distance so far in this country, despite several attempts... I don't know what will happen here, Telemoss, Brother Joe, and It Takes Time definite come into the reckoning on their best form of this season, however I am intrigued that Martin Pipe has pitted Ilnamar here instead on one of the handicaps. If he is in the same sort of form as he showed when winning the Coral Cup he could go well here..... He is worth chancing at eachway odds, however if Rodock is on a going day (as was the case when he thrashed The French Furze at Haydock, rather than pale imitation that was brushed aside by Bilboa) .... I'll go with these two, however clearly not with the greatest conviction ... you've been warned!
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Ilnamar (e/w)
¦ alternative ¦:¬>Rodock
3:45 Martell Grand National Steeple Ch. Showcase H'cap {Gr. 3} £500000 added, 6yo plus, 4m 4f, penalty £290000, 40 runners.
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¦ are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Iris Bleu (FR), Majed (FR), Spot Thedifference, and Manx Magic (FR)
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Forty runners will at quarter to four attempt to join the National's role of honour. It looks an open affair so hopefully the race will be as enthralling as last year's epic.
Here are my thoughts on each participant;
{1} Marlborough (11st 12lbs), trained by N Henderson - One of the genuine class acts in the lineup. Despite his welter burden, you could argue that in any other race than the National he wouldn't be that badly treated. If he is able to repeat his Cheltenham Gold Cup form, it would be no surprise if he crept into the reckoning on the Melling Road.
{2} Alexander Banquet (11st 11lbs), trained by W Mullins in Ireland - Another one of the class acts in the race though more of an out-and-out stayer. This year's Irish Hennessey Gold Cup winner finished behind Marlborough in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but should be better suited to this stamina test. Fast ground is a concern although connections don't believe this is a valid excuse for defeat.
{3} Kingsmark (11st 9lbs), trained by M Todhunter - On his day, Kingsmark is a useful "tool". Lightly-raced this season as he is best fresh. Is a Haydock specialist which also has drop-fences so should be ideally suited to the course. I can see him going well, however, appears to have a few pounds too much in comparism to the top two in the weights.
{4} What's Up Boys (11st 6lbs), trained by P Hobbs - The phrase "it aint over 'till the fat lady sings" could not be more apt when mentioning this grey. The extra change of pace that he can find will stand him in good stead and it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that this horse could jump the final obstacle with a sizeable deficit to make up, yet still get up on the line. If he gets round, this Gold Cup fifth has serious claims.
{5} Lyreen Wonder (11st 4lbs), trained by A Moore in Ireland - Lyreen Wonder has been a model of consistency this season winning two of his four starts. This hold-up horse will no doubt attempt to creep into the race on the second circuit. He could go well, however appears to have plenty of weight on what he's actually achieved.
{6} Ad Hoc (11st 1lb), trained by P Nicholls - Last year's Whitbread Gold Cup winner has probably had the perfect prep. for this race following his excellent third to Frenchmans Creek at Cheltenham 25 days ago. Conditions should suit and he's not badly treated, relatively speaking. He shouldn't be too far away if he gets round.
{7} Beau (11st 1lb), trained by N Twiston-Davies - Although he was travelling like the winner until Carl Llewellyn came off due to his tangled reins I can't agree with the view that on the basis of last year's performance, he's guaranteed to go well this time around. If the truth be known, he's struggled this season and even if he is a "national horse" it wouldn't surprise me if either one of the class acts of the race or lightweights proved to be too good. Should get round.
{8} David's Lad (11st 1lb), trained by A Martin in Ireland - If you've heard Tony Martin's comments over the last couple of weeks, you will be amazed that this horse is being tipped-up by many of the
renowned pundits as the likely winner. His yard has a virus and effectively has shut down. David's Lad has been kept in isolation which is the only reason he is able to line up. Whilst he is capable of winning, this concern plus doubts about his ability to see out the trip would give me cause for concern despite his fair third in the Cathcart Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
{9} Paris Pike (10st 13lbs), trained by Ferdy Murphy - Many peoples idea of a Grand National winner after he won the Scottish National two years ago. He has been highly tried since his return after missing a season so isn't badly treated if he can recapture his old sparkle.
{10} Majed (FR) (10st 11lbs), trained by Martin C Pipe - Majed is one of the horses that has caused Ginger McCain to spit blood this week as this decent hurdler will make his debut over British fences in this race. If he had been British-bred or hadn't raced over fences in France I would have suggested that this entry was pure folly, however, there is no doubting that he is decent over hurdles and his experience of jumping at Auteuil will stand him in good stead here. I personally think he is overpriced based on his hurdle ability, however, it is a brave man who will place faith in a horse that has yet to jump a British fence in public in the world's greatest steeplechase.
{11} Inn At The Top (10st 8lbs), trained by J Turner - One run this season, seventy-seven days ago where he pulled up on soft ground. He has his ground though.....
{12} Streamstown (10st 8lbs), trained by Ferdy Murphy - Outstayed his rivals on atrocious ground at Uttoxeter in February. Streamstown should get round, however, the ground will be plenty fast enough for him.
{13} You're Agoodun (10st 8lbs), trained by Martin C Pipe - You're Agoodun has the right attitude for this race and likes to creep into races . It wouldn't surprise me if he ran well if he got round. However, he appears to have plenty to do at these weights.
{14} Royal Predica (FR) (10st 8lbs), trained by Martin C Pipe - Although his form figures read well, Royal Predica does like to bludgeon his way around the course. This big chestnut gelding could well get round if his stamina held out, however, he does appear to have a lot of weight.
{15} Manx Magic (USA) (10st 7lbs), trained by Martin C Pipe - Put in one of the best rounds of jumping I've seen this season when winning at Warwick on similar ground early in the season. It would be no surprise if this front-running novice lead early on, however, didn't appear to get home at the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival so it's asking a lot to expect him to do so here.
{16} Blowing Wind (FR) (10st 6lbs), trained by Martin C Pipe - This former decent hurdler returns to have another go at lifting this prize after being baulked by a loose horse eventually remounting to finish third. Stamina is unproven and has to be taken on trust, however there is no doubt that he has peaked at the right time as his win in the Mildmay of Flete proved at the Cheltenham Festival.
{17} The Last Fling (10st 6lbs) , trained by Mrs S Smith - Even the assistance of Harvey Smith hasn't ironed out this horse's jumping which has cost him before in this race. With luck in running he should get round but you can't help but think that some of the youngsters will have too much toe for him.
{18} Wicked Crack (10st 5lbs), trained by E Hales in Ireland - Wicked Crack has been a model of consistency this season having finished in the frame in six of her last seven races. She isn't an easy ride though being rather idle so whilst she should get round, there is a chance on this fast ground that it all will be happening too quickly for her.
{19} Frantic Tan (10st 5lbs), trained by N Twiston-Davies - On some of his performances of last season, Frantic would be entitled to go well here, however, he has been out of sorts this season and conditions could be too quick for him.
{20} Super Franky (10st 5lbs), trained by Charles Byrnes - Honest Irish handicapper who won a decent chase on New Year's Day, however, doesn't have the class of some of his opponents which may tell in the latter stages.
{21} Bindaree (10st 4lbs), trained by N Twiston-Davies - Hasn't disgraced himself this season considering his yard has been out of form for the majority of the season. They are in much better form now so who says it's impossible that he might be capable of some improvement? He has experience of the National fences having run in the John Hughes chase last year so it's fair to say that the each-way support for him in recent days has a lot of volition.
{22} Celibate (10st 3lbs), trained by Charlie Mann - At his best, Celibate was one of the better 2 - 2 1/2 milers in training, however, he is a light of former days and I would be surprised if he is able to capitalise on his featherweight.
{23} Struggles Glory (10st 3lbs), trained by D Robinson - This former decent hunter-chaser could go well if he gets into a rhythm here, however, he has been a little disappointing of late. He should get round and could give a good account of himself.
{24} Mely Moss (FR) (10st 2lbs), trained by Charlie Egerton - Talented but fragile individual. Has only run twice since being outstayed by Papillon in the 2000 renewal of this race. He was brought down in the
mêlée of last year's race at the Canal Turn but ran well for a long way at Sandown on Imperial Cup day. Should like the conditions and has solid each-way claims.
{25} Gun'n Roses II (FR) (10st 2lbs), trained by Martin C Pipe - Likes the forced pace but can throw the dummy out of the pram if he doesn't get his own way. Stamina is unproven and it would be no surprise if he made an early exit.
{26} Smarty (10st 1lb), trained by M Pitman - Is certain to have his supporters after his heroic second placing behind Red Marauder last year. Although he could run well again, I didn't believe he would stay last year and having watched that race and his subsequent second to Amberleigh House in the Becher Chase I would not be in the least surprised if the petrol gauge goes to empty before the finish line again.
{27} Murt's Man (10st 1lb), trained by P Nicholls - Honest "fun horse" who won at Chepstow last month, however, he's far too clumsy for my liking and in all honest will do well to get round.
{28} Niki Dee (10st), trained by P Beaumont - Hasn't raced for 703 days because of injury, however, he was 3rd to Papillion in the 2000 renewal and does have conditions to suit. If I'm honest I can't see him winning but with conditions to suit, he might make the frame...that in itself would be a creditable achievement under the circumstances.
{29} Goguenard (FR) (10st), trained by N Henderson - Will attract support due to his 2nd over these fences in the John Hughes Chase last season and is subsequent easy win at Sandown at the end of last season. He has though been completely out of form this season and he'll do well to figure unless this fences can revitalise him.
{30} Logician (NZ) (10st), trained by I Balding - Logician hasn't been in the best of form of late, however, this former Australian giant could go well if his pilot makes best use of his scope. I wouldn't surprise me if he led for a lot of the first circuit and part of the second. I'm uncertain about his ability to get home.
{31} Samuel Wilderspin (10st), trained by Richard Lee - In good heart at present, having won twice this season including when he outstayed
Gun 'N Roses II up the final hill at the Open meeting. He was a good second behind Moor Lane at Doncaster last month and should give a good account here.
{32} Ackzo (9st 13lbs), trained by Ferdy Murphy - An out-and-out stayer who could go well if he got round, however, conditions appear to be too quick for him here.
{33} Red Ark (9st 13lbs), trained by Norman B Mason - It is worth noting that last year's winning pilot Richard Guest would have ridden Red Ark if he could have done the weight, however, although this is a useful individual in his grade, he hasn't done anything as yet to suggest that he is able to stay this extended trip. It wouldn't surprise me if he makes a brief moment for glory before petering out of contention.
{34} Birkdale (9st 13lbs), trained by Ferdy Murphy - I believe connections have won the right for him to race in their colours in this race. I don't wish to cause them alarm but despite his good second in the Thyestes Chase he never struck me as a natural chaser when trained by Lenny Lungo. I dread to think what he'll make of the National fences. I would be in the least bit surprised if he "bottles out" at one of the ditches.
{35} Spot Thedifference (9st 13lbs), trained by Enda Bolger in Ireland - This former hunter-chaser has already proven that he can handle these jumps when finishing in the frame in the foxhunters a couple of seasons ago. He won three handicaps in Ireland early on in this new season and has been laid out for this race. The booking of David Casey clearly suggests that connections expect a bold bit...so do I.
{36} Djeddah (FR)(9st 13lbs), trained by Francois Doumen in France - Conditions are ideal for this former useful Gallic chaser and if he is in the form he showed when routing a field at Ascot earlier this season, who knows what might happen here? His record in the race, however, isn't particularly inspiring...it wouldn't surprise me if he improved on his ninth placing this time around.
{37} Inis Cara (9st 12lbs), trained by Miss Venetia Williams - Another one of the horses that has frustrated Ginger McCain as he shown nothing (absolutely nothing!) since joining Venetia William's yard. If he returned to his very best Irish form, he could go well at a big price, however that is a major "if".
{38} Iris Bleu (FR) (9st 12lbs) , trained by Martin C Pipe - Couldn't entertain him on his last performance where he definitely decided he wasn't interested, however, he does boast some useful handicap form this season and could go well if consenting to put his best foot forward.
{39} Carryonharry (9st 12lbs) , trained by Martin C Pipe - Won three novice chases on the bounce at the beginning of the season and as a result was strongly fancied to land the William Hill Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival. His lack of experience told that day as his rivals were able to bet him going early on resulting in him failing to see out the trip on that occasion. Likely to be considered amongst the rags tomorrow, however, it's worth bearing in mind that there are plenty of shrewd judges on him to win the Welsh Grand National at Christmas and it wouldn't be the greatest surprise if he didn't manage to sneak into the frame...The first three or four fences are crucial for him.
{40} Supreme Charm (9st 12lbs) , trained by K Bailey - Fast ground handicapper who has done well in cross-country chases of late. I fancied him in the John Hughes last season where he fell when travelling well...you could see him going well if he gets round.
¦ Summary. ¦:¬> Does class really out? With conditions as fast as they currently are, the answer is probably yes. If I was going to have a bet in this, the quality horses, despite their weight make more appeal that some of the suspect lightweights. In my view, the winner will come from the following:
Marlborough
What's Up Boys
Ad Hoc
David's Lad
Paris Pike
Mely Moss
Bindaree
Blowing Wind
Samuel Wilderspin
I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised if Ad Hoc isn't there at the finish, however, I remember how well Marlborough travelled in the Scottish National a couple of seasons ago before he injured himself two out. He has been given a chance by the handicapper and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if he took full advantage. Spot Thedifference, Mely Moss and Samuel Wilderspin are interesting at each-way odds, whilst Niki Dee and Martin Pipe's pair Carryonharry and Majed could do the best of the long shots.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Marlborough
~ eachway if you prefer
¦ 2nd choice ¦:¬>Ad Hoc
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Spot Thedifference,
(e/w)
¦ Long Shot ¦:¬>Carryonharry,
(e/w)
4:35 Martell Reserve Novices' Hunters' Steeple Ch. £15000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 1f, penalty £10822.50, 16 runners.
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¦ are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>Kung Hei Fat Choi and Blackchesters
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Go Nomadic, Barryscourt Lad, Robbie Jnr, Garyspillane, Labula Bay, Quetal, and Wildfield Rufo, look the likeliest winners of the fifth. Barryscourt Lad who has run well in hunter chases these season, should go well, as should
Garyspillane, who I saw cruise home at Eaton Hall 13 days ago, and Quetal unbeaten between the flags this term, however, they may have to give best to Go Nomadic who has won three races this season between the flags and hunter chaser Robbie Jnr who has done a similar feat in Ireland and Wildfield Rufo who beat Go Nomadic at Catterick on his hunter chase debut. Preference is for the Irish raider Robbie Jnr.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Robbie Jnr
¦ e/w alternative ¦:¬>Garyspillane
5:15 Martell Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race {Gr. 2} £30000 added, 4, 5 and 6yo, 2m 1f, penalty £18000, 20 runners.
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¦ are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ¦:¬>His Nibs and Kickham
¦ t.h.e. r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>No Shenanigans, Mind How You Go, Kickham, Thisthatandtother, Silver Knight, Iris's Gift, Touch Closer and Simply Supreme all have valid claims in the lucky last. There should be plenty of market support for No Shenanigans who won at Sandown on his racecourse debut and Mind How You Go, unbeaten in both of his starts most recently when winning at Warwick in February. Preference though is for Kickham who would have been my choice for the Cheltenham equivalent had he been able to run. Thisthatandtother and Iris's Gift look the best each-way options.
¦ 1èr CHOICE ¦:¬>Kickham
¦ e/w alternative ¦:¬>Iris's Gift
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