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Analysis & Selections by
"a rØøk"
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
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NEWBURY
Sunday, November 30.
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¦¨¨¨¨"First¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 12.30 London Racing Club Juvenile Novices`
H´dle. (C) - to be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty € 7150 3-Year-Olds only - 1st - £7,150, 2nd - £2,150, 3rd - £1,050, 4th - £500 10 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Pequenita
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Major Speculation
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Chief Yeoman
¦¨¨¨¨"Second¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 1.05 Lexus Ls430 Novices` Handicap
Steeple-CH´. (D) - to be run over 2Miles~2f 110yds Penalty € 8700 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £8,700, 2nd - £3,600, 3rd - £1,765, 4th - £764 12 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Claude Greengrass
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Ballyrobert
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Elgar, (e.W.)
¦¨¨¨¨"Third¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 1.35 Stanjamesuk.com Novices`
Steeple-CH´. (A) (Registered As The Worcester Novices` Steeplechase) (Grade 2) - to be run over 3Miles~ Penalty € 20300 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £20,300, 2nd - £7,880, 3rd - £3,865, 4th - £1,675 7 Declared
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|¯¯"ONE¯TO¯JUMP"¯¯|:¬ Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? |¯¯¯ »-- Celestial Gold
¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Celestial Gold
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Ballycassidy
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Tacin
¦¨¨¨¨"Fourth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.10 Hennessy Cognac H´dle. (Handicap) (C) - to be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty € 12847 4-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £12,847, 2nd - £4,823, 3rd - £2,387, 4th - £1,058 20 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Tom Paddington
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Besieged
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Gone Too Far
¦¨¨¨¨"Fifth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.40 Stanjamescasino.co.uk Handicap
Steeple-CH´. (C) - to be run over 2Miles~6f 110yds Penalty € 9613.49 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £9,613, 2nd - £3,572, 3rd - £1,748, 4th - £754 8 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Un Jour A Vassy (FR)
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Lord Maizey
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Mighty Strong
¦¨¨¨¨"Sixth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.15 Newbury Weekly News `National Hunt`
M´dn. H´dle. (D) - to be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty € 8157.50 4-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £8,158, 2nd - £2,470, 3rd - £1,210, 4th - £580 19 Declared
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|¯¯"ONE¯TO¯JUMP"¯¯|:¬ Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? |¯¯¯ »--
Onwardsandupwards and Medici (FR)
¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Onwardsandupwards
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Rooster's Reunion
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Lotus Des Pictons (FR) (e.W.)
¦¨¨¨¨"Seventh¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.45 Systems By Design Standard Open National Hunt Flat (H) - to be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty € 7605 4-Year-Olds only - 1st - £7,605, 2nd - £2,300, 3rd - £1,125, 4th - £538 25 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- He's The Leader
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Shining Strand
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Lotier (FR), (e.W.)
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NEWBURY
Saturday, November 29. |
¦¨¨¨¨"First¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 12.30 Cantor Sport Novices`
H´dle. 28 entries - to be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty € 6612 4-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £6,612, 2nd - £2,230, 3rd - £1,090, 4th - £520 14 Declared
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¦¨¨"ONE¨TO¨JUMP!!"¨¨¦ ¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨»--Dawton (POL)
¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Fourteen runners have been declared for the opener,
headed by Paul Nicholls` Albuhera, the winner of three of his six starts over hurdles, most recently when just failing to
withhold the sustained challenge of Self Defense in the Grade Two Blue Chip Feeds Novices' Hurdle at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham, [btn a short head]. He sets a high standard for his fourteen
opponents, and will be hard to beat, however it would be unwise to underestimate the claims of hurdling debutantes, Adiemus, Distant Prospect, Pagan Dance, and Highland Reel. Adiemus has endured quite a
frustrating time of late on the flat, having been narrowly beaten in the Lincoln and
Cambridgeshire, since winning four races on the all-weather at the beginning of 2002. He has a touch of class and could well have more pace than Albuhera. You can make a similar claim for Pagan Dance. he was a bit of a "thinker", however when he
consented to put h is best foot forward, he was a useful middle distance performer, and
Amanda Perrett will have ensured that he has been well schooled. I don´t think these two will let him have things his own way... however I wont oppose the favourite here. A word of
encouragement for Tom George's runner Dawton. We make no secret of our enthusiasm for Eastern-European bloodstock at the
moment, and whilst we aren't for one second suggesting that this son of Greinton is another
Galileo, its worth pointing out that he was a useful stayer - his second to Caitano in the Wielka Warszawska at
Sluzewiec in September 2002, is all the more noteworthy as three of the horses who followed him home, [Dancing Life,
Nõwatór and Don Valentino], have all gone onto win races over hurdles in this country... He may be worth noting for another day.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Albuhera
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Pagan Dance
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Dawton (POL), [e.W.]
¦¨¨¨¨"Second¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 1.00 Cistm Fulke Walwyn Novices`
Steeple-CH´. 11 entries - to be run over 2Miles~4f Penalty € 12110.40 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £13,990, 2nd - £4,514, 3rd - £2,217, 4th - £964 3 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Puntal is a bit of a "Jekyll and Hyde" character, however you would be
disappointed if the recent Cheltenham winner couldn´t beat Buckby Lane and Wild Knight, even though I am in no doubt that these two will win races at some stage this season.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Puntal (FR)
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Buckby Lane
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Wild Knight,
¦¨¨¨¨"Third¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 1.30 Systems By Design Handicap
Steeple-CH´. (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) 16 entries - to be run over 2Miles~1f Penalty € 9201.12 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £9,229, 2nd - £3,409, 3rd - £1,674, 4th - £728 11 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--An interesting handicap chase comes next, where cases can be made for several of
the line-up; Brigade Charge, Ivanoph, Spring Grove, Tango Royal, Regal Exit, Abalvino, Carrick Troop, Korakor and Leaburn, are, in my view, all worth a second glance. There is like to be plenty of
pace on here, which should suit the hold up horses. I like Tango Royal, however who is still to show his decent
chase form from his days in France, and needs to win over the larger obstacles to be backed with
confidence, that means I have to go with Brigade Charge, who is lightly raced over fences, and may well be leniently
treated on the best of his form in Ireland. He is almost certainly much better than he showed
behind Horus here over 2m4f last season, and warrants another chance... The booking of Barry Geraghty certainly
catches the eye.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Brigade Charge (USA)
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Tango Royal (FR)
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Carrick Troop, [e.W.]
¦¨¨¨¨"Fourth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.00 Ballymore Properties Long Distance
H´dle. [gr. 2] - 10 entries - to be run over 3Miles~110yds Penalty € 23200 4-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £23,200, 2nd - £9,040, 3rd - £4,420, 4th - £1,900 8 Declared
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¦¨¨"ONE¨TO¨JUMP!!"¨¨¦ ¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Barracuda makes his eagerly-awaited reappearance in this Grade 2 hurdle. Europe's best long-distance hurdler makes his first appearance at this venue after his epic win in the
Stayers´ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March where he out-battled Iris's Gift to win by 3/4 length. He renews
rivalry with his Nemesis, Deano´s Beeno, the only horse to have beaten him in his last twelve starts. That was when he was
out-battled by the "Nicholashayne raider" at Ascot in the now infamous Long Walk Hurdle last season. Many pundits and punters have criticised Thierry
Doumen´s ride, however it is worth noting that for all the commentary, Barracuda did make up at least 30 lengths to join
Deano´s Beeno on the run-in before not quickening in the last 100 yards. As he went on to prove at Cheltenham, Barracuda isn't a horse who should be put in front too soon as he will do his
damnest to throw the prize away (as I believe he did at Ascot). Today's race should be right up his street as habitual front-runner Springfield Scally is almost certainly going to ensure that the early pace of the race is strong which should not only help Thierry Doumen settle him, but should also
interrupt Deano´s Beeno 's rhythm. Should all these factors come into play, it is hard to see him being beaten.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Barracuda
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Deano´s Beeno
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Sleeping Knight (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨"Fifth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.35 HENNESSY COGNAC GOLD CUP
[Steeple-CH´.] (Handicap) - [gr.3] - 29 entries - to be run over 3Miles~2f 110yds Penalty € 63800 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £63,800, 2nd - £24,897, 3rd - £12,319, 4th - £5,458 23 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Another big field for the season's second big handicap and an open affair at that. The horses I'd certainly consider here are as follows:
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One Knight
(11-12) - Last season's SunAlliance Chase winner is already being talked up as a Gold Cup contender, mainly because of
Jaïr Du Cochet' s performance last weekend at Huntingdon. Whilst the assumption is a little overstated, there is no getting away with from the fact that this is a useful second season staying chaser prospect. He does though have plenty to do at these weights; |
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Irish Hussar (11-04) - Another useful second-season chaser, who won two from four starts last season. His second to La
Landiere in the Cathcart at the Cheltenham Festival and subsequent win in a Grade 2 Novice Chase at
Aintree 's Grand National meeting (where he beat It Takes Time) stand up to close scrutiny and it's difficult to ignore the bullish comments coming from the stable. |
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Sir Rembrandt (11-03) - Lightly campaigned last season due to a tendon injury, however his half-length defeat of It Takes Time at Cheltenham at last season's Open Meeting reads well in the context of this race. Stable are in good form and conditions seem to be ideal. Should go well. |
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Iznogoud (FR) (11-02) - Lightly-raced over the last couple of seasons, however his novice chase form entitled him to be considered here. A fair effort in the At The Races Gold Cup in April suggests he still retains some ability...whether he can sense to show it here is open to debate; |
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Barrow Drive
(11-02) - Another one of last season's smarter Novice Chasers in the lineup who finished 3rd to One Knight in the SunAlliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He is 12lbs better off here, however hasn't impressed in two starts this term and will need to improve to land this prize today; |
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Strong Flow (11-00) - Lightly-raced novice chaser who could be anything. Has looked promising when disposing of inferior opposition on three
occasions this season, however his fall at Aintree highlights how difficult his task in defeating more experienced chasers at these weights will be. That said, if Paul Nichols is correct in that his horse is potentially as good as See More Business, it is impossible not to consider his chances today; |
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The Premier Cat (10-13) - A huge gelding who is finally fulfilling the potential shown over hurdles a couple of seasons ago. He was quite a useful novice last season winning three times and warmed up for this race with an encouraging run behind
Édredon Bleu at Clonmel last week. Definitely has a chance which could be heightened if the heavens open; |
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Sudden Shock (GER) (10-12) - Very useful hurdler (when trained in France/Germany) who translated some of that ability to fences last season when landing the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival from Stormez. Didn't look overly enthusiastic at Wetherby on his
reappearance, however that is the nature of the beast. He is definitely interesting in an open race; |
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Haut Cercy (FR) (10-11) - Fair handicapper on his day who hails from a yard just running into form at the right time. His second in the Mildmay of Flete Chase at the Cheltenham Festival was a fair effort and he might be open to more improvement over this extended trip; |
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Gunther McBride (10-10) - Useful staying handicapper 18 months ago who seems to be in the grip of the handicapper. He was a fair second on his most recent start behind Swansea Bay which gives him a chance here; |
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Shardam (10-10) - Nigel Twiston-Davis's runner is usually seen at his best when plenty of use is made of him which brings his stamina resources into play. It was hard not to be impressed with him on his latest start at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham two weeks ago where he made all to beat Stormez by 8 lengths and it would be difficult to see him not figuring in the race today; |
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Joss Naylor (10-09) - Decent Novice Chaser last season who put in his best efforts when the mud was flying. There is a doubt about his participation, however he will have very strong claims if conditions went his way; |
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Jungle Jinks (10-06) - Useful Northern novice chaser last season who ran creditably in the Charlie Hall chase on his
reappearance. Needs to improve on what we know about him thus far, however I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility that that wasn't feasible; |
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Take the Stand (10-05) - Progressive staying chase who has won four of his last six races. He has plenty to do, however might have improved enough to warrant each way consideration at the very least; |
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Hedgehunter (10-04) -
Metamorphosised last season from a uncooperative, immature hurdler into a potentially smart staying chaser who might have won the National Hunt Chase but for a bad blunder two from home. Potentially well-treated and hails from last season's winning stable; |
It may pay to take a chance with conditions here, with there being the possibility of either significant rainfall and/or strong winds. Whatever the case, we know that there is going to be significant early pace here which is going to ensure that
stamina becomes a significant issue. The horses that appeal are Hedgehunter, The Premier Cat and Irish Hussar. There possibly isn't much to choose between these three, however I was taken by The Premier Cat's Clonmel effort and at double-figure odds hopefully will give us a good run for our money here.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- The Premier Cat, (e.W.)
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Hedgehunter
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- The Irish Hussar
¦¨¨4^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Strong Flow
¦¨¨¨¨"Sixth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.10 Ladbrokes.com Handicap
Steeple-CH´. 25 entries - to be run over 2Miles~4f Penalty € 23200 5-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £23,200, 2nd - £9,208, 3rd - £4,544, 4th - £2,000 14 Declared
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¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Fourteen runners have been declared for the penultimate race on today's card. Of these, Cracking Dawn, Claymore, Master Tern, Midland Flame, Itsonlyme, Redemption, Devon View, Avalanche and
Il´Athou make most appeal. Il´Athou is sure to ensure that this is run at a decent pace which should suit Claymore, Cracking Dawn and Master Tern who all come here on the back of easy wins. Each of them is probably open to further improvement, however it is Cracking Dawn who most appeals. He has clearly been difficult to keep sound, however was very impressive when winning his only start over fences at Haydock in November 2002 and may well be leniently-treated off of only 122 here. It seems sensible to take a chance with him here, particularly with the stable is such good form here.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Cracking Dawn
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Claymore
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Master Tern
¦¨¨¨¨"Seventh¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.45 Stan James Intermediate
H´dle. (A Limited Handicap) (Registered As The Gerry Feilden) 20 entries - to be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty € 14500 4-Year-Olds plus - 1st - £14,500, 2nd - £5,752, 3rd - £2,826, 4th - £1,230 8 Declared
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¦¨¨"ONE¨TO¨JUMP!!"¨¨¦ ¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨»-- Well Chief (GER)
¦¨¨"a¨rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- A fascinating hurdle ends the card. which brings together some of last season's better novices. Sporazene, Well Chief, Saintsaire, Spectroscope and Limerick Boy are the horses I would be looking to consider here, and for the remainder of the season. The handicapper doesn't appear to have been particularly kind to Well Chief if you believe the form shown by Spectroscope last season in the Triumph Hurdle (at the Cheltenham Festival),
Glenlivet Hurdle (at Aintree) and most recently at the Punchestown Festival in May (where he finished second to Sporazene) proves to be accurate. However, in my opinion, whilst his current mark is probably unjust it wouldn't surprise me if Well Chief had the greatest potential for improvement of these and it is interesting that connections are prepared to renew rivalry on such disadvantageous terms...it's just possible that his win at Wincanton over Quasar is better than he has been given credit for. I certainly hope he runs here, however I am very frightened of Saintsaire who could be leniently treated if connections have sorted out the medical ailments which blighted so much of last season's campaign.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Well Chief
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Saintsaire (FR)
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Sporazene (FR)
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