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Analysis by
.t.h.e. .r.o.o.k.
Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
NEWBURY
Saturday 30th November
(¯¯ Iª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 12:30 Cantor Sport Novices' Hurdle £10000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £6815, 18 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Kefir d'Angron, Peppercorn, Wellington Hall & Knowhow.
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A great day's racing opens with this
eighteen runner novice hurdle. Of those runners due to line up KEFIR D'ANGRON; [a winner four times in the French Provinces, who has a lot of ability
but has the scope of a chaser], SUD BLEU; [found out again when tried in Graded
company behind Mutakarrim at Cheltenham's Open Meeting], CAPPADRUMMIN; [an impressive winner of his only start at Kempton in February], DUMARAN; [a winner for
Ian Balding on the flat] KNOWHOW; [an enormous gelding who ran well behind Cappadrummin at Kempton in February], PEPPERCORN; [a useful miler in Germany, who
hasn't quite lived up to that level of form since joining Francois Doumen, that
said his seventh to Salselon in a Group 3 at Milan looks good here] and WELLINGTON HALL [in
the process of running a god race when tipping up at the last on his debut at Taunton] would be my idea of the winner. Peppercorn would be very
interesting if they crawl. He has to prove he stays the trip but could be an
interesting eachway bet, however Cappadrummin is proven at the trip and wins the
percentage battle.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Cappadrummin
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Peppercorn (GER), [e/w]
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Kefir d'Angron,
(¯¯ IIª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:00 Systems By Design - Commercial Interiors Steeple-ch. [H' cap] (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) £15000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 1f, penalty £9326.40, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A two mile handicap comes up next. LOGICIAN [well beaten by Chicuelo at Market Rasen in July], BLEU SUPERBE [in good
form earlier on in the season, however has lost his way of late though his saddle slipped last time out at Kempton], TANGO ROYAL; [took an X-rated fall on his reappearance at
Cheltenham, however is still interesting if he retuned to his best form], IVANOPH [a fortunate winner at Wincanton last time out], AVANTI EXPRESS, [back in form this season and is
unbeaten in two starts, most recently at Stratford where he beat Ei Ei by a neck], ASPARAGUS; [a good second to Devon View at Chepstow under 12-0 on his reappearance] and XAIPETE
[second beaten 6lengths on his latest start behind Star Jack at Ayr] would appear to have the best claims. I do like the look of Asparagus here and assuming Jim Culloty can get him into a
rhythm early on, I can see him picking these up in the straight.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Asparagus
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Logician
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Tango Royal [e/w]
(¯¯ IIIª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:30 Ballymore Properties Fulke Walwyn Novices' Steeple-ch. (Listed Race) £18000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £10846, 6 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Isard III (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A fascinating novices chase comes next. All eye will be on JAIR DU COCHET who makes his third appearance over the larger obstacles, who put in a
particularly accomplished round of jumping when beating The Staggery Boy by 12lengths at
Folkestone 25 days ago. This is his hardest task to date and I'd certain
that BENNIE'S PRIDE; [impressive himself when beating Hedgehunter by 3
½lengths at Clonmel], SCOTS GREY [who jumped well when winning at Huntingdon on his chasing debut] SIR REMBRANDT; [a course
winner, who flew after the last to catch Ask Henry near the post, eventually winning by a short head], ASK THE NATIVES; [a very easy winner on his chasing bow at Fontwell] and ISARD III [unbeaten so far having won a Newbury bumper and a Wadebridge
intermediate point-to-point], will give him plenty to think about. Isard III
interests me most, as he lacks experience here, however the fact that connections
had been so unusually choosy with his education, suggest either he had plenty of potential ... or is very
difficult to keep sound. He should have his day however I will be surprised
(pleasantly surprised though) if he were good enough to beat Jair Du Cochet ... He is the selection.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Jair Du Cochet
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Isard III
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Sir Rembrandt
(¯¯ IVª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:00 Cantor Sport Long Distance Hurdle [Grade 2] £30000 added, 4yo plus, 3m 110yds, penalty £17400, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Brother Joe, Boss Doyle, Deano's Beeno, Bacchanal, Native Emperor, and Catch Ball are the most likely winners
(realistically) of the fourth. BROTHER JOE is a deserved favourite and will be very
difficult to beat here, if he is in the same sort of form that saw him win so easily at Wetherby last month; where he cruised through on the bridle before
quickening past Boss Doyle winning with more than the 15length margin suggests. His rivals could up against it
here, however things may be more interesting if DEANO'S BEENO is given a
chance to stretch his stamina from flag fall. He does go well fresh and
didn't run badly behind Surprising at Haydock in May. If he sets a strong gallop, then you could see NATIVE EMPEROR [who stayed on strongly over 3m 1f at
Cheltenham to beat Yeoman's Point by 1 ½lengths] and BACCHANAL [who has plenty of questions to
answer over fences, but has no such qualms here over hurdles], giving him plenty to think about.
Although he lacks match practice Bacchanal is definitely interesting in receipt of weight from these rivals and I'd burden him with my
selection here.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Bacchanal,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Native Emperor,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Brother Joe,
(¯¯ Vª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:35 HENNESSY COGNAC GOLD CUP STEEPLE-CH. [H' cap] [Grade 3] £105000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 2f 110yds, penalty £60900, 25 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Bounce Back (USA),
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- The big race of the day comes next .. here's what I think of the twenty-five who line up;
( 1 )¯¯ LORD NOELIE - Top weight ran hi best race since winning the Sun
Alliance Chase when finishing fourth last year.. I'm sure he'll run creditably again however you can see him being past by a couple of these up the final straight.
( 2 )¯¯ MARLBOROUGH
- Did extremely
well to win the Charlie Hall Chase after making a catastrophic mistake at the sixth. He stayed on well to beat Hussard Collonges by 2lengths and as long as his jumping stands up to this examination then he is sure to go
close here.
( 3 )¯¯ HUSSARD COLLONGES - Would appear to have it all to do here as he had the run of
the race on the Malborough, however he is a stuffy individual who should strip fitter here. One of the potential pace setters who will set a strong tempo here.
( 4 )¯¯ GINGEMBRE - Made a bad mistake at the second in
the Charlie Hall which knocked him out of the running however he wasn't
very far behind Marlborough at the sixth and I'm not sure that the claims
being made that he can reverse form with Marlborough are necessarily accurate. Should improve on that run though and wouldnt
exactly being the most surprising winner
( 5 )¯¯ IZNOGOUD - Held by Hussard
Collenges on Sun Alliance Chase form, however should have improved physically this summer .. eachway claims
( 6 )¯¯ BOUNCE BACK - Looked very reluctant at the
beginning of the year over fences, but was completely transformed after having a break and was very impressing when winning the attheraces Gold Cup on the last day of the season. On his best hurdles form he is still well
treated here and has a live claim.
( 7 )¯¯ BINDAREE - Fell at the second
at Aintree last Sunday and may have too much weight here to be competitive at the business end of the race.
( 8 )¯¯ TAKE CONTROL - Ruby Walsh got a real tune out of him in
the Scottish National and will need to be in that sort of form top have a realistic chances today .. will plug on when other are waving the white flag.
( 9 )¯¯ STORMEZ
- I can still see transcripts of the rude names this horse was called when coming from france.. there have been plateful of "'umble" eaten since then!!. I thought he was really
game when winning over 3m3f at Cheltenham last time and has a very solid chance... not sure about the jockey booking though.
( 10 )¯¯ CARBURY CROSS - Needs to
recapture last season's form to have a chance here and was very disappointing
at Wincanton on his reappearance.. other appeal more
( 11 )¯¯ RED STRIKER - Was going really well when being badly hampered 2 out, behind Goguenard at Wetherby on his
reappearance but is the sort of horse that should appreciate the guaranteed
strong pace here .. an eachway possible.
( 12 )¯¯ FROSTY CANYON - Given too
much credit in my view for beating Japhet here in January, however didn't
run too badly behind Brother Joe at Wetherby. Not sure he'll appreciate
the strong pace here (could sulk if he gets left behind).
( 13 )¯¯ TAKAGI - I like the way
that this horse has been brought along slowly by connections and won with plenty in hand at Navan last time
out .. wouldnt surprise me if he went close today.
( 14 )¯¯ HARBOUR PILOT - Very well weighted on last season's novice form, however
isn't the greatest jumper .. a fastly run 3 ¼ mile steeplechase is just what he
needs then isn't it?!!!
( 15 )¯¯ WHITENZO - Was going really well when blundering badly 4 out in
the Charlie Hall Chase, and meets rivals on much better terms here .. if he
could only get his jumping sorted...
( 16 )¯¯ GUNTHER MCBRIDE
- Will prove popular here having won over hurdles at Kempton 24 days ago. This is however a much harder assignment and he was
found out before when tried in this league off of a similar mark ... not one of my "favorites" here.
( 17 )¯¯ SOUTHERN STAR - Ran a
great trial for this chasing home Stormez at Cheltenham .. does he have enough
improvement in him to win as competitive a race as this .. the jury's out.
( 18 )¯¯ GIVE OVER - Didnt run too badly when
finishing third to More Than A Stroll at Down Royal in their Grade 1 Chase... this however in many ways is harder and I'm not convinced he's good enough.
( 19 )¯¯ CROCADEE - Last seen chasing home Ikrenel Royal at Sandown in April '01, however has the class to go well despite not racing for 582 days ... It wouldnt
surprise if he came third, fourth, fifth etc .. winning is probably asking too much.
( 20 )¯¯ EVER BLESSED
- A former winner of this race who
hasn't been in the same form since in truth. Blundered badly and unseated rider at the 11th at Haydock on his
reappearance and doesn't make much appeal I'm afraid.
( 21 )¯¯ MORAL SUPPORT - useful a few
season's ago, but has lost his way ... sorry.
( 22 )¯¯ DIRECT ACCESS
- A useful
novice from last term, who won at Kelso last month. I can see why he appeals despite being out of
the handicap proper, however he was well beaten by Ifni Du Lac and Infrasonique
and that form wouldn't be good enough here... I have my reservations about him being good enough today (He may be another day though).
( 23 )¯¯ GOLA CHER - Usually is very
consistent, however he is very lazy and doesn't do a tap when getting in front as
happened on his reappearance at Wincanton where Swansea Bay managed to worry him out of it... He should
give a good account despite being out of the handicap.
( 24 )¯¯ INFRASONIQUE - Ran well on his
reappearance behind You're Agoodun at Ascot, however doesn't appear to be good enough.
( 25 )¯¯ BE MY ROYAL
- Wouldnt be
without a chance here despite being well out of the handicap. He made all when winning his third race of the season at Cork last time out, and may go well at a nice price if his jumping holds together here .
¦S.U.M.M.A.R.Y.¦:¬»- A strong
pace is certain, so stamina and sound jumping should come to the fore. Surprisingly many of these have the necessary
attributes however Malborough, Stormez, Bounce Back, Hussard Collenges, Southern Star, Whitenzo, Takagi, Gola Cher, and
Gingembre should be there or thereabout turning for home. Malborough, Bounce Back, Hussard Collenges, have my sentimental votes and I
wouldn't begrudge them the win, however Bounce Back seems the likeliest to oblige if his jumping holds together. I wouldnt
wish to put anyone off of him, however Stormez, [eachway] and Takagi represent
more in the way of value. If Paul Moloney can get the same sort of tune that Barry
Geraghty managed last time out he shouldn't be too far away .. he is just preferred.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Stormez, [e/w]
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Takagi
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Bounce Back
¦ 4th place?ª ¦:¬>- Malborough
(¯¯ VIª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 3:10 ladbrokes.com Steeple-ch. [H' cap] £35000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £20300, 11 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Horus, Il'Athou & Goguenard
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Horus, Il'Athou, Master Tern, Brigade Charge, Hurricane Lamp, Goguenard, and Merchants Friend, have the
best claims in race six. HORUS should go off as favourite having already bagged two races this season most recently at Stratford in June. This former decnet hunter chaser is difficult to assess
and will be tested here by IL'ATHOU, [who lost nothing in defeat behind Red Blazer at Huntingdon last
time out] who should set out to make all at a strong pace here, never mind recent winner GOGUENARD, HURRICANE LAMP and MERCHANTS FRIEND. I'm hopeful though that he can pass this
stern examination.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Horus,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Il'Athou,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Hurricane Lamp,
(¯¯ VIIª¯ NEWBURY¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 3:40 Stan James Intermediate Hurdle (Limited H'cap) (Registered As Gerry Feilden) (Listed Race) £25000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £14500, 11 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Rob Leach, Flame Creek, Brooklyn's Gold, Benbyas, Volano, Jaboune, Mister McGoldrick, and Never appeal in
the finale. I'm sure ROB LEACH will prove popular after winning on bottomless ground at Ascot last Friday .. conditions
however are totally different at the moment and that form may be suspect. Four appeal here - BENBYAS, [who ran well behind Rooster Booster at
Cheltenham's Open Meeting], MISTER MCGOLDRICK, [who dotted up at Wetherby
last time out], VOLANO [who disapointed after impressiving on his debut - he has reportedly improved since being gelded] and NEVER, [who
didn't build on an impressive win at ascot last December ] ... Volano is just preferred.
¦ 1er. _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>-Volano
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Never [e/w]
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Mister McGoldrick,
NEWBURY
Friday 29th November
(¯First¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 12:20 Systems By Design - Commercial
Interiors 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (Div I) £6000 added, 4yo
plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £4290, 13 runners.
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[
("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One
To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of
horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Narwhal,
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Narwhal,
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>- Howrwenow,
(¯Second¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 12:50 Q Associates Juvenile Novices'
Hurdle £9000 added, 3yo only, 2m 110yds, penalty £6708, 13
runners.
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[
("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One
To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of
horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Golden
Flight (FR) and Visibility (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Golden Flight,
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>- Visibility
(¯Third¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 1:20 Systems By Design - Commercial
Interiors Novices' Hurdle £9000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 5f, penalty
£6844.50, 10 runners.
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[
("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One
To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of
horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»-Saitensohn
(GER), Slooghy (FR) and Killer (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Saitensohn (GER)
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>- Killer (FR)
(¯Fourth¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 1:55 Systems By Design Novices' Steeple
ch. (Registered As The Worcester Novices' Steeple ch.) [Grade 2]
£30000 added, 5yo plus, 3m, penalty £17400, 6 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- One Knight,
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>-
(¯Fifth¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 2:25 Tote Placepot 25th Birthday Hurdle [H
'cap] £15000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £8700, 17
runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Rolling Tide,
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>- Firestone (GER)
(¯Sixth¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 2:55 TFM Cyntergy Steeple ch. [H 'cap]
£10000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 6f 110yds, penalty £6500, 10
runners.
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[
("ONE TO JUMP 2003") ¯ are there any horses from "One
To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of
horses to follow during the national hunt season? ]:¬»- Lord Moose,
and Romantic Hero
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Lord Moose,
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>- Romantic Hero,
(¯Seventh¯Race¯)¯¯¯»- 3:30 Systems By Design - Commercial
Interiors 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (Div Ii) £6000 added, 4yo
plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £4277, 13 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1er _ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Rhinestone Cowboy,
¦ e/w alternative?² ¦:¬>- Neltina
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