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Analysis & Selections by
.t.h.e. .r.o.o.k.
Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
KEMPTON
Thursday 26th December
(¯¯ Iª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 12:40 Pertemps Supporting SIA Novices' Hurdle £10000 added, 4yo plus, 2m, penalty £6583, 10 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»- Caracciola (GER), Peppercorn (GER), and Mukhalif.
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A great days racing opens with this enticing
novice hurdle. Of the ten runners declared, Lord Sam, Caracciola, Peppercorn, Mukhalif, Porak, and Sharmy, appear to have the best claims. LORD SAM is fairly certain to go off as favorite,
especially after beating Inca Trail so decisively at Sandown on his seasonal
reappearance, however this unbeaten son of Supreme Leader may find matters harder here, especially on a track unlikely to play to his
strengths. German expatriates CARACCIOLA, [who stayed on well to win at Newbury
last time out] and PEPPERCORN, [a Group placed miler on the flat in Germany/France, who shaped encouragingly behind Keltic Bard at Newbury last month], as well as PORAK, who beat Translucid convincing at Ascot, will give Lord Sam to
think about, as might former Derby Italiano winner MUKHALIF if he takes to jumping. This looks tough and unless the heavens really
open I'd be inclined to pass Lord Sam over for Peppercorn, who may be bets suited to the track/conditions
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Peppercorn (GER),
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Caracciola (GER),
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Lord Sam,
(¯¯ IIª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:10 Pertemps Aviation Resources Feltham Novices' Steeple-ch. [gr. 1] £50000 added, 5yo plus, 3m, penalty £29000, 8 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A fascinating novice chase comes up next. Le Sauvignon, Jair Du Cochet, Bold Investor, One Night Out, Iris Royal, Lucky Bay, and Swansea Bay, have all performed well over fences and this should be a very informative race. LE SAUVIGNON is likely to go off as favourite. This former french Champion Hurdle winner made a pleasing
first appearance over British fences at Folkestone where he popped round
economically before putting the race beyond Magic Of Sydney's reach. That was his first effort since beating Gilder to land the 2001 Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (Grade 1) in June '01, and he should come on for the
experience... With conditions likely to suit he will be hard to beat, however in
the shape of BOLD INVESTOR, [who beat Iris Royal over course and distance
in November]; IRIS ROYAL, [who showed the benefit of that experience when beating Young Ottoman at Newbury 87 days ago], JAIR DU COCHET; [former
decent hurdler who has taken really well to fences and remained unbeaten
after beating Scots Grey at the Hennessy Meeting at Newbury]; LUCKY BAY, [Another winner at Newbury 27 days ago, where he beat Joly Bey by 5lengths], ONE NIGHT OUT, [a progressive novice hurdler last year who won on his chasing bow at Fairyhouse in
November] and SWANSEA BAY; [The most prolific winner in the line-up, who was winning for the sixth time this term when winning the 41st running of The Badger Brewery Handicap Chase at Wincanton], will need to be as fluent against these stronger
opponents. This is particularly hard, however the horse that strikes me as having the
greatest potential is Jair Du Cochet, and whilst I dislike the level of (in my view unjust criticism aimed at
Jacques Ricou, (a young jockey still learning his craft in France) every now and again it works to punters
advantage. For a jockey who is such an unsafe conveyance, he has a particularly
good completion record, (Only Japhet seems to have fallen in recent seasons) and this combination have forged quite a
formidable partnership on both side of the French Channel. This young man is human and I
believe that the savagery of our press is probably beginning to dent his confidence... which is why I hope that he
doesn't try and win this up the straight. When he won at Folkestone and Newbury he made a
committed effort from about six furlongs out... do the same again Jacques and Jair Du Cochet may make things difficult for his rivals... I'll take him to
withhold Le Sauvignon's late thrust
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Jair Du Cochet,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Le Sauvignon
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Iris Royal,
(¯¯ IIIª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:45 Christmas Hurdle [gr. 1] ~~ sponsored by
Pertemps £75000 added, 4yo plus, 2m, penalty £43500, 7 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»-Ilnamar (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- DAVENPORT MILENIUM, [a most progressive novice last term, who won
the Menolly Homes Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) and the Emo Oil Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) at the
Punchestown Festival], HORS LA LOI III, [last season's Champion Hurdler, who was travelling well when coming down at the second last in the Bula
Hurdle, eventually won by Rooster Booster]; ILNAMAR, [One of my favourite from last term, who repaid ONE TO JUMP followers faith in him, when he landed the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival (at odds of 92/1 on
the Tote) beating Grimes by 1 ½ l, when landing the Martell Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Grand National Meeting]; INTERSKY FALCON, [unbeaten in
three of his starts this term, the most recent being when landing the 'Fighting Fifth' Hurdle (Grade 2) at Newcastle by 6lengths from The French Furze], MARBLE ARCH, [behind Intersky Falcon, who improved on that effort when
finishing fourth to Rooster Booster in the Bula Hurdle]; SANTENAY, [all out to land the K J Pike & Sons Elite Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) at Wincanton] and YORKSHIRE, [a useful stayer on the flat, who occasionally threw in
the odd bad run... that trend seems to have begun to happen over obstacles
if his run behind Supreme Prince at Chepstow last time out is anything to go
by], are the seven runners who have been declared for the Christmas Hurdle. Intersky Falcon seems to be the likeliest
leader here in what will almost certainly be a tactical race and it won't
be the greatest surprise if he nicked the prize from these, especially if, (as I suspect) Davenport Milenium and Hor La Loi III may need this. It
wouldn't however surprise me if Ilnamar gave him a race. It was overlooked to some extent exactly how much pace
this horse showed when putting the Coral Cup out of reach and backed that up to a large extent next time at Aintree.
This is a horse that revels with cut in the ground and I have elaborated at
length in our ONE TO JUMP feature, that he is well worth a go in a race like this, especially in a year
where the Champion Hurdle is wide open.. The more rain that falls the greater his chances .. I'll take him to cause a
surprise.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Ilnamar (FR)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Intersky Falcon
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Hor La Loi (FR)
(¯¯ IVª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:20 King George VI Steeple-ch. [gr. 1] ~~ sponsored by
Pertemps. £150000 added, 5yo plus, 3m, penalty £87000, 10 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»-Douze Douze (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Eleven horses have been declared for the latest running of the King George V Chase. Here are my thoughts on each of the runners;
( 1 )¯¯BACCHANAL; trained by Nicky Henderson ~~
Bacchanal has a particularly good record over fences (currently 5 wins from
eight attempts), which seems odd for a horse with so many questions raised about his jumping. Ever since he beat Wahiba Sands by 18lengths in
the Fulke Walwyn Chase at Newbury in November '00, many punters/pundits have noted him down as a possible future
champion over the larger obstacles... and to be fair when he gets it right you wouldnt argue with that. One of his best effort was in this
event last year where after making a mistake, at the sixth-last. he recovered to look a big danger three out before being
out speeded by Best Mate and Florida Pearl... Conditions were against him that day and this
thorough stayer will appreciate every drop of rain that falls between now and the big day. My one real reservation is that I'm not sure that his jumping would stand up to close examination if someone is brave enough to make it hurt from a long way out. If he puts in a clear round he should be there or thereabouts.
( 2 )¯¯BEST
MATE; trained by Miss Henrietta Knight ~~ I am a really big fan of this horse, and it was good for the sport that a horse of his quality/potential finally made it through the ranks to win the Gold Cup. It is easy to see why he appeals to
the eye, as he appears to glide along during his races and has been particularly
impressive in his steeplechase victories. However the nauseating over hyping
of him (Dont get me wrong, he's decent but still has more improvement in him to be considered one of the greats... though he may be) turns me off. I dont
believe that other recent winners of the Gold Cup will have been so highly praised for beating Commanche Court (a top class handicapper, but yet to prove otherwise), especially when market rivals Looks Like Trouble, Florida
Pearl, and Bacchanal Shooting Light and Behrajan all failed to fire. Similar comment apply with his
reappearance in the Peterborough Chase where he was workmanlike in beating
Douze Douze (who I will discuss below) and Geos (who was noticeably reducing
the deficit on the run-in). He goes into the race with the best credentials but is far from certain to prevail and he was caught out by the
tightness of the course as much as the waiting tactics employed last year... far from a certainty.
( 3 )¯¯DOUZE DOUZE
(FR); trained by Guillame Macaire in France ~~ Douze Douze makes the trip from the north of Bordeaux. This giant gelding has always been one of apples of Guillaime
Macaire's eye, and prior to running in the Peterborough Chase won three of his four starts over fences, as a four year old including a
spectacular win in the Prix Maurice Gillois Grand Steeple-Chase Des 4 Ans (Chase) (Grade 1) in November '00, beating Sleeping Night (gave 7lbs). After a
satisfactory reappearance at Cholet, Douze Douze Lined up at Huntingdon and split pundits and punters alike with his effort. The vast
majority seemed to be ready to write off the horse's King George chance after a sketchy round of jumping. Whilst I was
disappointed with aspects of his jumping. I was more than pleased at how well he travelled despite four
serious blunders. He lost any semblance of hope with a very bad jump at the last, yet did gallop to
the post and all things considered did well to get within 8lengths of the Champion. the trainer has not lost faith in his charge's ability and has been schooling him over British-style fences in preparation for the Kempton showpiece, and he has reputedly come on since than run. Jacque Ricou (who gets far too much
criticism for such an inexperienced jockey) didn't really bond with the horse
and looks lightly to be replaced.. either way, if he can get into a rhythm
I won't be surprised if he plays a prominent role in the race.
( 4 )¯¯FIRST GOLD
(FR); trained by Francois Doumen ~~ Former winner of the race who would warrant serious
consideration for this race if he were to line up, especially after making such a pleasing reappearance in
the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase (Grade 1), behind Native Upmanship, staying on again at the finish after being outpaced turning for home. He is reportedly going
however for the Ericsson Chase.
( 5 )¯¯FLAGSHIP
UBERALLES; trained by Phillip Hobbs ~~ Winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) at this year 's Cheltenham's Festival Flagship Uberailles tries his hand at this extended trip... He gives the impression that he should stay this trip, however the further he has won over is 2m1f, and he has disapointed when tried at 2m4f... He's top class however
and will either go very close or fail to get home..
( 6 )¯¯FLORIDA
PEARL; trained by Willie P. Mullins in Ireland ~~ Top class chaser who
hasn't ever really been given the plaudits he deserved... until winning this event in
such gallant fashion last year. He equaled that effort (in my view) in the Martell Cup Chase Showcase (Grade 2) where he stylishly put 11lengths
between himself and Cyfor Malta; and the Punchestown Heineken Gold Cup (Grade 1), where he comfortably beat Native Upmanship by 3lengths. In between these good runs Florida Pearl can thrown in
the odd sub-standard effort and has run poorly/disappointingly in the last three runnings of the James Nicholson Wine Merchant Championship Chase (Grade 1), dropped away tamely before the second-last to eventually
finish 22lengths behind More Than A Stroll. He will need to be back on form to
withhold new challenge... the booking of Ruby Walsh has to be considered a
positive sign.
( 7 )¯¯LORD
NOELIE; trained by Miss Henrietta Knight ~~ Frustrating
chaser who has flattered to deceive a few too many times for my personal
liking... That said he is a horse that if he puts in all together could go very close here, though the
forecasted rain is completely against him.
( 8 )¯¯MARLBOROUGH; trained by Nicky Henderson ~~ Nicky Henderson's second string but in name only. He proved when coming fourth in last year's Gold Cup after a
rushed preparation hat he could hold his own in this company. There was plenty to like about his win in the Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) which he won despite making a horrendous blunder on
the first circuit, and he was looked after once he chance had gone in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase Handicap (Grade 3), and therefore
didn't disgrace himself in finishing 18-½ lengths behind the winner Be My Royal. I like the booking if Timmy Murphy for the horse and the race may be run to suit him... Has definite eachway claims
( 9 )¯¯NATIVE
UPMANSHIP; trained by Arthur L. T. Moore in Ireland ~~ There is no doubt that this is a good horse on his day, as anyone who saw the manner in which he won the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase (Grade 1) for the
second time will endorse. On that occasion, he travelled smoothly throughout, before Conor O'Dwyer let out a
bit of rein in the straight, immediately settling the issue. However that race was over 2
½ miles and that is probably his most effective trip. I also have some reservations about the track,
particularly if they go quick.. he may well travel well throughout, however if he
isn't allowed to get in that all-important breather, he may still struggle to last home (maybe even more likely). A tactical race is
likely which may suit him and for that reason he has to be entertained.
( 10 )¯¯SHOOTING
LIGHT; trained by Martin C. Pipe ~~ Vastly improved
handicapper who earnt his place in the Gold Cup field with wins at Ascot and Cheltenham (twice, including
the Thomas Pink Gold Cup) however he was very disappointing in the Gold Cup (first beaten). He ran well under a welter burden behind stablemate Stormez back at Cheltenham over 3m4f (didn't get home that day), and could surprise over this shorter trip.. although in my view the balance of his form
suggests he needs to improve a bit to figure here... interesting to see who gets the ride.
( 11 )¯¯
WAHIBA
SANDS; trained by Martin C. Pipe ~~ Another useful chaser on his day (over 2
½ miles) who didn't appear to stay when tried in the John Smith's Hurdle (Grade 2) in October '00. however has improved since then. If he's
allowed to take his chance, could runs respectably, however looks up against it here.
( .S.U.M.M.A.R.Y. )¬»-
Where does the early pace comes from here?... The "candidates" appear to be Douze Douze, Best Mate, and
Bacchanal, however only Douze Douze, strikes me as one who might want to lead all
the way and that'll be if he has improved his jumping technique at home. I think his jockey will be at pains to get him into a
rhythm early on and may feel that is best done from the front; especially in a muddling affair.... whatever happens, the race seems likely to come to life on
the second circuit, where these partnerships will be forced into showing their hands. In a muddling race
Bacchanal cant really afford to wait and will surely make a long strike for home, as might Best Mate though I dont think they'll want to be in front unless its a dawdle... There is a strong
possibility that turning for home that Bacchanal or Douze Douze may be leading into
the straight, with Florida Pearl, Best Mate, Native Upmanship ... and Shooting Light, (who may
belie current odds)... then its a case of who wants it the most. It's difficult to see Best Mate failing to make the frame, however this
doesn't appear to be likely to be run to suit him and I can see him making the frame again. The more I think about the likelihood of a false pace, the more I
believe that the first to commit from the gate could have a distinct advantage
and therefore Bacchanal or Douze Douze would seem to have big chances here... which one do I prefer?... At current prices the raw potential of Douze Douze
appeal more and he is worth an eachway salver at the every least.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>-Douze Douze, (e/w)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Bacchanal
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Best Mate
(¯¯ Vª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:55 Network Group Steeple-ch. [H 'cap] £15000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f 110yds, penalty £9222, 6 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Its a pity that the meeting tails off after the great start
and middle and maybe the three year old hurdle (plus a bit more cash) may have at least
produce some moore runners.. never mind. Six runners anyway have the chance of
appearing on this quality card in the fifth race and you could make a case for each of Mount Prague, Joyeux Royal, Another Raleagh, Wise King, Needwood Lion, and Flash Gordon. You have to respect the claims of MOUNT PRAGUE who beat El Cordobes at Huntingdon last month, as well and JOYEUX ROYAL; [who fell when held at the last in race won by Hell-Of-A-Shindy at Wincanton 47 days ago - he'd previously won
cosily at Plumpton], however there will be no more deserving winner than ANOTHER RALEAGH who has gone close of so many occasions, most recently when blundering badly at the last at Huntingdon, when still in there with every chance of winning. If Mick
Fitzgerald can get him into a rhythm, I'd be hopeful that he can nurse him home.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Another Raleagh
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>-Joyeux Royal,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>-Mount Prague,
(¯¯ VIª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 3:30 Pertemps Catering Hurdle [H 'cap] £10000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 5f, penalty £6438, 7 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- The last is frankly even worse (a pity). Neutron, Ravenswood, One Nation, Barcelona, Rolling Tide, and Picture Palace, make the
greatest appeal (if that's what you can call it) RAVENSWOOD, [8th behind Prokofiev at Sandown] and ONE NATION, [well behind when pulled up 3 out in race won by Farmer Jack at Taunton in November], appeal, but dont appear to have come to hand. Although he has his
quirks, NEUTRON is at least in winning form and a repeat of the form shown when winning at Wincanton three weeks ago may prove to be good
enough.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Neutron,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- One Nation,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Barcelona,
KEMPTON
Friday 27th December
(¯¯ Iª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 12:45 Executive Network 3-Year-Old Novices' Hurdle £10000 added, 3yo only, 2m, penalty £6612, 17 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Ken's Dream,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Indien Royal,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Cape Canaveral,
(¯¯ IIª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:15 J.P.A. Recruitment Wayward Lad Novices' Steeple-ch. £20000 added, 4yo plus, 2m, penalty £12554.50, 5 runners.
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»-Epervier d'Or (FR) and Ideal du Bois Beury (FR),
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Epervier d'Or (FR)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Got One Too (FR)
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Ideal du Bois Beury (FR),
(¯¯ IIIª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:50 Pertemps Employment Alliance Steeple-ch. [H 'cap] £50000 added, 5yo plus, 3m, penalty £29000, 14 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>-Itsonlyme,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Desailly
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Galant Moss (FR)
(¯¯ IVª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:25 Pertemps Asap Hurdle [H 'cap] £10000 added, 4yo plus, 2m, penalty £6728, 13 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Search And Destroy,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Candarli,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Tango Royal (FR),
(¯¯ Vª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:55 Tote Supports SIA Novices' Steeple-ch. [H 'cap] £20000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f 110yds, penalty £12528, 10 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- La Landiere,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Indalo,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Cool Monty, (e/w)
(¯¯ VIª¯ KEMPTON¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 3:25 Pertemps Education Network Hurdle [H 'cap] £10000 added, 4yo plus, 3m 110yds, penalty £6380, 8 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>-
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- His Song, (e/w)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Sure Future,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Jim Jam Joey,
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