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Analysis & Selections by
.t.h.e. .r.o.o.k.
Whether it be
"the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er CHOICE), as well as
the next best runners (in our view, this can include any horses who could run well at eachway
odds). Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
ASCOT
Saturday 27th July
¦ DRAW ADVANTAGE ¦:¬>
No significant advantage... though the stands side rode best at the Royal Meeting. being drawn
with the pace is more important.
¦ 1er. ASCOT ¦:¬>2:00 Brilliant Cut Diamond Rated Stakes (H' cap) £25000 added, 3yo plus, 1m-2f, penalty £15562.22, 5 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> EASTERN BREEZE (who beat Shafeeq at Newmarket over 1m-2f ),
NADOUR AL BAHR (beaten 1 ½ lengths by Chianti at Epsom over 1m-2f), PRIZE WINNER (who beat Champion Lodge at Sandown over 1m-3f), HASTY PRINCE (who beat Bonaguil over 1m-3f at Haydock) and FORBEARING (formerly a useful handicapper, Forbearing has yet to recapture his best form, though ran slightly better than his 13th behind Calcutta at Newbury over 1m last time out suggests) all have chances in the opener. The preference is for the slightly frustrating Nadour Al Bahr, 2nd in his last 4 starts who likes the course and must go close given the run of the race.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Nadour Al Bahr
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Eastern Breeze
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Prize Winner
¦ 2e. ASCOT ¦:¬>2:35 Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) £45000 added, 2yo only fillies, 6f, penalty £26100, 7 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> CASSIS (who finished behind Spinola last time out at Newmarket over 6f),
NASIJ (who beat Bijoux by 3 ½ lengths over 6f at Ascot), RUSSIAN RHYTHM (who beat Fancy Lady to win at Newmarket over 6f), LUVAH GIRL (who came 2nd behind Duty Paid at Ascot over 6f),
KATDOGAWN (who came 3rd behind Miss Mirasol over 6f at Newmarket in June),
BUY THE SPORT (who won at Windsor over 6f beating Burmese Princess) and ELIDORE (who also won at Windsor over 6f, beating Princess Sabaah) all have chances of sorts in the 2nd race on the card. Preference is for Cassis who didn't get the run of the race last time in the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newbury. Arguably, with a clear run she would have prevailed and will be hard to beat given better luck in running this time around. Pity there weren't 8 runners as I wouldn't be surprised if Buy The Sport belies current odds and makes it into the frame. If you're looking for a horse to run well at big prices here, she is it. I'll leave it for you to decide whether you think she is worth an each-way bet for 2 places.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Cassis (USA)
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Buy The Sport (USA)
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Russian Rhythm
¦ 3e. ASCOT ¦:¬>3:10 Tote International Stakes Showcase H' cap £150000 added, 3yo plus, 7f, penalty £87000, 28 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>28 runners will line up for this frightenly open handicap in which many have claims. GHANNAM ( 2nd of 31 behind Pentecost at Ascot over 1m last time), DEMONSTRATE (who beat Lunar Leo at Ascot over 7f), SUGGESTIVE ( won at Haydock over 6f beating Approval), MINE (who won the Bunbury Cup finished in front of SCOTTY'S FUTURE, an unlucky in running 8th who re-opposes), ATAVUS (given an excellent ride in a slowly-run tactical affair won that day, beating amongst others TILLERMAN who reopposes here and is better judged by his short-head defeat in the Group 2 Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal Meeting), CHOOKIE HEITON (who last time won at Newbury over 6f beating Pomfret Lad), CRYSTAL CASTLE (came 4th behind Capricho at Ascot over 6f in Jun), NORTON (who won at Ascot over 1m beating Invader), DEMONSTRATE (the winner of his last 2 starts, most recently when winning over course and distance last time out) and BY FAR (French raider, a good 2nd at Le Lion D' Angers) are my idea of the possible winners of this. Despite his welter-burden, TILLERMAN makes plenty of appeal. These sort of races where he can switch off and then weave his way through the field before pouncing close home are just what he likes. Given the run of the race, he could land this prize, however I am worried about the huge weight concession to
GHANNAM who if you consider has been unfavorably drawn in his last 2 starts, yet managed to get within a neck of victory on both occasions tends to suggest to me that this horse probably could be capable of taking a listed event. On balance he has to be the selection. RUDIK, MINE and BY FAR join TILLERMAN as the best each-way options/;
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Ghannam
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Tillerman
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Rudik, (e/w)
¦ 4th Choice³ ¦:¬>By Far
¦ 4e. ASCOT ¦:¬>3:50 King George Vi And Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (Group 1) . £750000 added, 3yo plus, 1m- 4f, penalty £435000, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>GRANDERA, (impressive winner of the Prince of Wales
Stakes (Group 1) at the Royal Meting, where he put 5lengths between himself, Indian Creek and
his rivals) will start favourite for the 1 ½-mile event. Despite that good form he has yet to
land a major prize over this trip, which gives his rivals heart here. The
current make-up of the field is still unclear at the time of wring however
SAKHEE (not seen since finishing third to stablemate Street Cry in the Dubai World Cup at Nad Al Sheba (1m-2f) in March), GOLAN (6th of 15, behind Jungle Pocket in the Japan Cup last November, but
better judged on his best European form) ZINDABAD (who made all to land the Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal Meeting over
course and distance, beating STORMING HOME, (who reopposes here) by a length), NAYEF (who has a bit to find to with Grandera on recent form, however shouldn't be inconvenienced by the trip), AQUARELLISTE (last year's Arc runner-up has had a mixed year
thus far, as possibly hasn't yet peaked this time around .... Her third to Ange Gabriel at Saint-Cloud, last time out, certainly suggests
she isn't firing yet ..... or hasn't been - today may be totally different) and BOREAL,( who
sluiced home to beat Storming Home in the Coronation Cup (Group 1) on Oaks day at Epsom) all have chances of lowering his colours.
I can't believe that with the ground riding as fast as it is that Sakhee will be risked, therefore with NARRATIVE (a front runner, who is
Godolphin's pacemaker here) and Zindabad likely to ensure that this hurts, I do find it hard to side with the favourite, even though I am
aware of the favourable home reports about the horse. I am swayed by the foreign challenge, which does looks particularly
strong here and it wouldn't surprise me if either Boreal and Aquarelliste didn't prove good enough. I think Aquarelliste is probably the better of the two, however she hasn't offered me enough evidence to suggest she is back to her form of last year (despite favourable home reports).
Boreal is consistent and should love the way the race will be run. He is the "percentage call" and gets my vote
accordingly. Ironically enough it Grandera is found wanting at this trip, it wouldn't surprise me if Narrative dint run a big race for them. His form at Nad al Sheba is solid enough and his
European form is underrated, however he thrashed a field at Milan on his initial start and then lost nothing in behind Falbrav in the Grand Premio Milano (Group 1). Falbrav is a
decent horse who would hold in own in Group company anywhere in Europe, so whilst
I don't expect him to win, I wouldn't be surprised if he belied his odds.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Boreal (GER),
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬> Aquarelliste (FR), (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Narrative, (e/w)
¦ 5e. ASCOT ¦:¬>4:25 Blue Heart Diamond H' cap (Ladies Race) £12000 added, 3yo plus, 7f, penalty £8541, 19 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> Lygeton Lad, Arpeggio, Hand Chime, Labrett, Barrantes, Cryfield, Bint Royal, Butrinto , and Iced Diamond look to the most
solid claims in the fifth on the card. To be brutally frank, this make no appeal whatsoever, however if forced to, I think I'd
have to go with LYGETON LAD, the winner of three of his last six starts, most recently at Newmarket over 1mile-lyd where he beat Swynford Elegance by 2lengths...
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Lygeton Lad,
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Iced Diamond , (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬> Labrett,
¦ 6e. ASCOT ¦:¬>5:00 European Breeders Fund Crocker Bulteel Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings) £12000 added, 2yo only colts and geldings, 6f, penalty £8092.50, 4 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>MONTANA, (a son of Puissance, who is a half-brother to 4 winners), SALCOMBE, (a son of Elmaamul, out of an unraced mare), JAY GEE'S CHOICE, (a son of
Barathea, who is a half-brother to the useful Kootenay) and SPIDER MCCOY, (a son of Irish River colt, closely related to the useful Hailsham). Are the four newcomers who line up for the sixth. The market will surely be the best guide here, however on this evidence, Spider McCoy is just
preferred.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Spider McCoy (USA)
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Salcombe
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Jay Gee's Choice
¦ 7e. ASCOT ¦:¬>5:35 Oaks Diamond Rated Stakes (H' cap) £15000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, penalty £9089.76, 6 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>The finale on the card is disappointing. WAIT FOR THE WILL, (who finished behind Reviewer over course and distance, last time out), ZAAJEL, (last of 3, behind Highest, also over course and
distance last time out), ALBERICH, (3rd of 4, behind Scott's View at Chester on his most recent start), BURGUNDY, (who
won earlier in the week at Sandown over 1m-2f, beating Lycian by a nk), and COURT SHAREEF (a well beaten 8th of 10, behind Maycocks Bay over 1m-6f at York on his last start) make most appeal, (if that's the right word) in the last.
If he gets the run of this race Wait for the Will has to be the selection
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Wait for the Will
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Zajeel
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Court Shareef
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