Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at
eachway odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE). Any runner from our features are shown
before each race's analysis.
Friday, December
26
[¯¯¯¯FIRST¯RACE¯¯¯¯]¯¯¯»-- 12.40 Pertemps Supporting Sia
Novices´ H´dle. [C] 9runners - to be run over 2Miles~ Penalty €
6162.49 4-Year-Olds plus
|¯±¯±¯[ªt¯the¯post]¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯| ¦¨¨¨¨°NE¨TO¨JUMP¨¨¨¨¦
¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature
which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current
national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- Flame Phœnix,
¦¨¨FªNCIED¨RUNNERS?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Dempsey, Contraband, Lord Lington,
Lustral Du Seuil, Pawn Broker, Nawamees, Travelling Band, Flame Phœnix,
Salinas.
¦¨¨¨"ó¨rØøk"¨¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Difficult race to call as
Dempsey hasn´t done anything wrong in his three starts this term, whilst
Contraband's flat-race form entitles him to go close here, [even those he
wasn´t impressive at Kempton last time out. I may well avoid them both
and have a little eachway on Lustral Du Seuil, [a son of Sassanian], whose
only run to date in the Prix Bango (Non-Thoroughbreds) at Saint Cloud in
May resulted in him finishing a creditable second to Lord Lington, [who he
reopposes here]. That was a fair effort and if the market were to speak
favourably then I would be tempted to have a little bit on him.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Lustral Du Seuil (FR),
[e.W.]
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Contraband,
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Contraband,
[¯¯¯¯SECOND¯RACE¯¯¯¯]¯¯¯»-- 1.10 Network Design Feltham
Novices´ Steeple-CH´. [A] [Grade 1] 5runners - to be run over 3Miles~
Penalty € 32725 5-Year-Olds plus
|¯±¯±¯[ªt¯the¯post]¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯|
¦¨¨FªNCIED¨RUNNERS?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Strong Flow, Ballycassidy, Rule
Supreme,
¦¨¨¨"ó¨rØøk"¨¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Many punters will be
expecting Strong Flow to oblige and I would be very surprised if that
wasn´t the case, however it is possible to get carried away with the
actual performance rather than simply credit the obvious potential of this
horse. I struggle to believe that Strong Flow would have destroyed Sir
Rembrandt, for example in that manner and whilst he will probably get his
head in front, i wouldn´t be at all surprised if the ultra-consistent,
but lazy Ballycassidy didn´t ruffled his feathers here.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Strong Flow,
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Ballycassidy,
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Rule Supreme,
[¯¯¯¯THIRD¯RACE¯¯¯¯]¯¯¯»-- 1.45 Jobs@Pertemps City Christmas
H´dle. [A] [Grade 1] 7runners - to be run over 2Miles~ Penalty € 46400
4-Year-Olds plus
|¯±¯±¯[ªt¯the¯post]¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯| ¦¨¨¨¨°NE¨TO¨JUMP¨¨¨¨¦
¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature
which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current
national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- Foreman (GER)
¦¨¨FªNCIED¨RUNNERS?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Rooster Booster, Intersky Falcon,
Sporazene, Rigmarole, Ulundi, and Foreman.
¦¨¨¨"ó¨rØøk"¨¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- There should be a decent
pace which should several of these. There is no hiding place for Rooster
Booster today, who was I believe disappointing in the Bula Hurdle at
Cheltenham on his reappearance and whilst he should come on for the run, I
personally do believe that there is more strength-in-depth this season and
he needs to show a bit more to retain his position at the head of the
market. If Sporazene and Rigmarole put in clear rounds, it isn´t
difficult to imagine them figuring at the business end and I marginally
prefer the former who may well have won had he jumped with more fluency at
Newbury on Hennessy Gold Cup day. The "Jokers" in this pack are
Ulundi, and Foreman, who have solid hurdles form behind them and are more
than capable of winning this everything goes right. Forman fell at the
last in the Prix Leopold d´Orsetti Haies [gr.III] at Enghien-Soisy in
November when still in with a chance of beating Northerntown, arguably the
most improved hurdler/chaser in France this year]. That is decent form and
his current odds of 20/1 look increasing more tempting ... I wont be
surprised if he finished in the frame.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Sporazene
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Foreman {GER}
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Rooster Booster
[¯¯¯¯FOURTH¯RACE¯¯¯¯]¯¯¯»-- 2.20 King George Vi Steeple-CH´.
[A] - Sponsored by Pertemps - [Grade 1] 12runners - to be run over 3Miles~
Penalty € 92800 5-Year-Olds plus
|¯±¯±¯[ªt¯the¯post]¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯| ¦¨¨¨¨°NE¨TO¨JUMP¨¨¨¨¦
¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature
which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current
national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- Jaïr Du Cochet (FR) and Le Roi
Miguel (FR)
¦¨¨FªNCIED¨RUNNERS?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Jaïr Du Cochet, First Gold,
Fondmort, Swansea Bay, La Landiere, Valley Henry, Tiutchev, Le Roi Miguel,
Édredon Bleu, Marlborough, It Takes Time, Seebald.
¦¨¨¨"ó¨rØøk"¨¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- An interesting renewal of
the King George in which you can make a case for each of these either to
win or to finishing in the frame. Two factored have swayed the decision
for me; [1] - The
early pace - First Gold needs to get into a rhythm early one and he is
likely to be stretched by Édredon Bleu, whose style of running is likely
to not only stretch several of these, but agitate the Doumen runner, and
[2] - Acceleration at the end of the race - Whilst several of these can
cruise around here at a decent pave, [particularly those with form at
shorter trips], I want to be with an animal likely to be accelerating at
the end of the race, rather than simply staying on and/or decelerating as
the stamina gives out.
On this ground First Gold could be hard to catch, particularly if for any
reason he is given a soft lead, however Fondmort, La Landiere, Valley
Henry and Jaïr Du Cochet could have too many gears for him if that final
big effort is required. I don´t think Jaïr Du Cochet quite got the
credit for his win in the Peterborough chase over a track which clearly
didn´t suit him, [he wanted to go drift left at several of the
obstacles], simply because of the disappointment that was manifested by
Best Mate´s below-par effort. Unlike many of his generation, he has
demonstrated that he had progressed since last term, and whilst he still
has a little to find here, its difficult, [leaving his price aside] not to
believe that a lot of punters don´t believe he has a "favourite´s
chance".
Now there are still pundits
prepared to argue that Jacques Ricou is a hindrance to the horse...
hopefully that manifests itself in his price, because these punters choose
to ignore the horses efforts and how they eulogized this partnership when
he first raced over hurdles and for all their jibes, Jacques Ricou isn´t
that easy to dislodge, [his record over the last three or so years is
actually very good]. I acknowledge that he is likely to be allowed to get
into a rhythm on the outside from the outset and that he may give away
some lengths by drifting right to put himself right at some obstacles. If,
however, he is in contention with three to go, there are few horses who
finish as strongly as he does in his races and all things considered, he
has to be the selection today.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Jaïr Du Cochet (FR)
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- First Gold (FR)
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Fondmort
[¯¯¯¯FIFTH¯RACE¯¯¯¯]¯¯¯»-- 2.55 Tote Supports Sia Novices´
Handicap Steeple-CH´. [C] 9runners - to be run over 2Miles~4f 110yds
Penalty € 8984.20 5-Year-Olds plus
|¯±¯±¯[ªt¯the¯post]¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯|
¦¨¨FªNCIED¨RUNNERS?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Running Machine, Harry´s Dream,
Alvino, Translucid, Wild Knight, Gielgud, Jardin De Beaulieu, Toulouse,
Genuine Article.
¦¨¨¨"ó¨rØøk"¨¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- I was very impressed with
Translucid, who I thought ran a lot better than his finishing position
suggests, when finishing fifth to Thisthatandtother in the Henry VIII
Chase at Sandown last time out. A reproduction of that form here will see
him go close, however I am a little bit worried about his stamina here and
therefore Running Machine, who won nicely on his reappearance at
Folkestone], gets my vote .. by default.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Running Machine
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Translucid,
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Wild Knight
[¯¯¯¯SIXTH¯RACE¯¯¯¯]¯¯¯»-- 3.25 J.p.a. Group Handicap H´dle.
[C] 11runners - to be run over 2Miles~5f Penalty € 6162.49 4-Year-Olds
plus
|¯±¯±¯[ªt¯the¯post]¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯±¯| ¦¨¨¨¨°NE¨TO¨JUMP¨¨¨¨¦
¬: Are there any horses from "One To Jump" 2003/4 - Our feature
which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current
national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- Fils à Papa (FR),
¦¨¨FªNCIED¨RUNNERS?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--The Dark Lord, Fils à Papa (FR),
Tinoveritas, Bed Bug, Balladeer, Fortune Island, Turaath, Count Tony and
Il Cavalière.
¦¨¨¨"ó¨rØøk"¨¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Another trappy handicap
ends the card. Lightly-raced Tinoveritas impressed last time out at
Chepstow and might prove to be well handicapped. I think he will be
difficult to beat and he gets my vote, although Fils à Papa is very
interesting here, especially as he is likely to appreciate the better
ground here than that he been racing on in France recently.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Tinoveritas (FR),
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Fils à Papa (FR),
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Il Cavalière, [e.W.]
This
page was last updated on
Friday December 26, 2003
at
07:47:01 AM.
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FURLONG
TO GO would like to convey our condolences to the rook, whose father,
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Mr.
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Success
Stories
MARKET
RASEN Saturday
31st August
3:00 Audrey Buttery Reunion Novices' Steeple Ch. -
£6000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 6f 110yds, penalty
£4111.25, 7 runners.
Ashgar, Misty Ridge, Sijujama, and Mount Gay, are
the only runners which make any sort of appeal in
the second. Punters are likely to have Ashgar down
as a banker, especially with "A.P." on board....
I can see where they are coming from, however he is
notoriously lazy and makes no appeal at likely
odds. He was very hesitant at his obstacles last
time out at Southwell and if one of his rivals were
to expose this weakness, he could even thrown in
the towel and sulk (which he has done before).
Misty Ridge and Mount Gay, have run creditably of
late over hurdles however it is Mount Gay [a
winning point-to-pointer], who may be able to take
him on. His second placing at Perth 27 days ago was
a sound effort, and he is in my view worth taking a
chance with {if they had been eight runners he'd
have been an excellent eachway wager}. Mount
Gay obliged at odds of 7/1.
.a. .rØøk.
MARKET RASEN
Saturday 20th July
Tote Scoop6 Summer Plate. (H´cap. Steeple Ch.). £65000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 4f, 16 runners.
"As much as I like Demasta, there is so much pace here, that I cant help but think that the front runners may go too fast for their own good here. It makes sense [in my view], to be looking for something likely to be able to travel well... and despite my very negative comments above... I have (since the runners were declared), had a lot of time for the chance of Chicuelo (at eachway odds). I think some horses suit certain trainers, and I think this horse has a better chance of winning a race like this with Martin Pipe than Ian Williams - not because I necessarily think Pipe is a far better trainer than Williams is... its more to do with understanding this type of horse.
Nicholashayne - more than most training establishments - does particularly with their foreign purchases. I think this is in part because due to the amount of time/effort they have invested into studying not only
French form, but also how certain trainers educate their young horses - adopting if/when necessary previous regime/style of training. Secondly, (more importantly), some
French breds improve after a season's
acclimatization. A look at this horse's form in France and you'll find, for example, his good third to Sleeping Night and Ilnamar (beaten 8½lengths) in the Prix Morgex (Chase) (Grade 3) , or his third to Sleeping Night and Douze Douze in the Prix Maurice Gillois Grand Steeple-Chase Des 4 Ans (Chase) (Grade 1) in November 2000. He has certainly been given a chance here off of only a handicap rating of 116, and I can't see him not finishing in the first four.... He'll do for me". "ANOTHER WINNER FOR "ONE TO JUMP
2003"
DISCLAIMER:
In no way does "Furlong To Go!! guarantee that selections
posted above will win the specified races advertised.
They are merely an indication based on current form. Whilst
the selections, and advice are the basis by which we will
personally place our own bets, like you, any selections
that are backed, are done so at your own risk.