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Analysis by
the
rook
Bonjour. Bienvenue mes Dames et
Monsieurs...
Good Mourning, ... get it ?!!... morning ... mourning ...no?!! ... OH WELL PLEASE YOURSELF!!! ... god you're so much better that the crowd we had it 'ere
last week... TEE HEE HEE !!!.
So please has "the boss" been with our "tales of woe", that he has given us the chance to a daily slot...
don't worry, our usual exploration of the features MEETINGS will return in the autumn .....
ENJOY!!!
JAPHET
After Horus' win earlier in the week, (one of our suggested ante post
bets for Cheltenham), I was hoping for a solid run from Japhet, and I
got what I wanted, though some may be disappointed with his effort.
Unbeaten records are nice, however you have to remember that Japhet
falls into the trap (regularly overlooked by pundits) of a french horse
attempting campaigns in two countries, which is very difficult to pull
off, and that isn't me attempting to make empty excuses, it's a
statement of fact.
He achieved his main targets in 2001 were the Prix Edmond Barrachin
(Chase) (Grade 3) in September, and the Prix Maurice Gillois Grand
Steeple-Chase des 4 ans (Grade 1) in November which was his tenth race
of the year over fences, hurdles, and a couple on the flat. His meteoric
rise is very similar to Ilare's last year, and connections probably have
big races in mind for him in France over the coming years.
The Sun Alliance Chase realistically falls at an awkward time of the
season, of a horse having had this sort of campaign, as the gap between
Cheltenham, and some of the big races in France isn't that big, which is
why today wasn't as crucial as I think it was made out to be. To go to
Cheltenham, Japhet had to have a cut at his obstacles and in that
respect he didn't do anything wrong - his jump at the open ditch in the
straight first time around was awesome.
Jockey Benoit Gicquel probably made one mistake, and that was not to
ride the usual attacking race that has wowed people at Auteuil, and in
achieving his objective of getting Japhet round, he arguably cost the
horse the win today (though Frosty Canyon deserves plenty of credit for
getting back into the race in the first place).
I did get annoyed with the unnecessary building up of the horse, and
proof of how rude some pundits can be was illustrated here. Some of them
clearly have decided that Japhet is a fraud, and instead of pursuing
what the trainer felt was his undoing today, instead pressed Guillaume
Macaire about stablemate Heros Collonges, who ran away with a novice
chase at Kempton last month.
"Come on guys!!!"
Japhet has just turned five; he was trying three miles for the first
time, and was one of several horses that had been unwell in the stable.
Although he ran a few pounds wrong weight for age with the winner, it
was still a sound effort (run in not a bad time in comparison with
Bacchanal's later in the day).
Guillaume Macaire was straight with us before the race, and
afterwards.... He says the horse can improve - I have no doubt that he
can, especially if he's ridden with more aggression, (as he was over
fences last year in France).
I hope he doesn't lose heart, and give the United Kingdom the swerve,
especially as he could probably farm races in France with Japhet,
(fortunately this is not in Macaire's character).
Corals has pushed up Japhet to 6/1 I note from 7/2 ...
I hope more bookmakers make this mistake, as this was everything the
yard wanted ... bar the win ... It's a brave bookmaker that would offer
odds on Frosty Canyon performing the same feat in four weeks time
CHELTENHAM 2002
Saturday, 09 February 2002
ISTABRAQ - ON
THE ROPES?
(the rook returns to Istabraq
for his next article - here are his thoughts on the Champion Hurdler's
reappearance run at Leopardstown)
As I read that Istabraq is now a 13-8 chance (from 6-4) for an historic
fourth victory at Cheltenham in March. I have to profess that I haven't
been impressed with Aidan O'Brien's 10-year-old since he won the 1999
Champion Hurdle, and think he's been on the decline virtually ever
since, this hasn't exactly changed my view
Its a strange scenario really. I wouldn't race a horse known the break
blood vessels, who also has dodgy "pins", unless he was
straight enough to do himself justice. With so many damning reports
lately published about the damage done to horse's health by asking them
to race unfit, it seem bizarre to me that the "Wizard of
Ballydoyle" is prepared to openly state that "Istabraq was
half fit for this assignment".
How near the truth is this statement?, as surely this determines whether
this is satisfactory or worrying.
It very hard to question as we've heard it for the last three years, and
it will be a major shock if Istabraq turns up unfurnished on Champion
Hurdle Day. However it is interesting how the language use in the run up
and before the race "He is fitter than he was last year",
altered to "satisfactory" and "only half fit" after
the event.
For the record - to me the run was on a par to Landing Light's
lacklustre "win" in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle... It lacked the
authority of former years, and his jumping, once a potent weapon is
becoming more guessing, which could become a significant negative in a
strongly run race.
He was still capable of pulling of a fourth success ( I wouldn't dream
of underestimating him that much), however connections are facing their
biggest ever challenge .... they are up to it ... is Istabraq?
CHELTENHAM 2002
Sunday 6 January, 2002
IS ISTABRAQ HOME AND HOSED ?
After the defeats of Bilboa, Jair du Cochet and Ned Kelly, over the
weekend, there is already speculation that Istabraq is home and hosed
... Is this warranted?
Its no secret that I think he peaked during the 1998/1999 season where
frankly he was awesome, however over the last two seasons, I don't think
he performed anywhere near that sort of mark since (though I will
quickly state straight away that he hasn't had to)
To win another Champion Hurdle, I think Istabraq will need to be able to
run to within 10lbs of his 1999 mark, which at present may be enough
ultimately may prove to be enough.....
But that's no certainty.
I take the view that a horse regardless of his previous record has to
prove itself each season. To be brutally frank, as much as I was amongst
his biggest fans in his youth, I don't think beating Mantles Prince by
4lengths, and Penny Rich by 6 1/2 suggests that he was 30lbs clear on
the field in the Irish Champion, or for that matter the rest of the
hurdlers currently around (as is implied to some degree by his current
handicap mark).
Whilst he's still 'Numero Uno' of this year's crop of hopefuls, like all
the previous champions before him he'll have to come and prove himself
again before this column will ever contemplate backing him
What of his rivals
We saw another side of Ned Kelly on Saturday, when after looking all
over the winner halfway up the run-in, he couldn't withhold the late
thrust of the ultra tough Limestone Lad
Personally I don't think that's this defeat was a bad thing, and it
certainly wasn't his demise.
I think the most over used phrase by pundits at present is the term
"disappointing" which is used ad nausium to describe poor
runs, but actually on several occasion is used to describe good ones.
Was Istabraq disappointing when beaten by Limestone Lad in the Hatton
Grace... of course not, just beaten by a very good horse given a
brilliantly executed ride
If connections are truly considering running Ned Kelly in the Champion
Hurdle, at least they now know that the tactics employed on Saturday
wont have work. I suspect that he'll need to be 'played ' later up the
Cheltenham Hill. I certainly wouldn't dismiss him because of Saturday's
event
The same applies for Bilboa, who ran well against a filly; Line As who
has improved out of all recognition this term, and franked the form next
time out in a Grade 1 hurdle
I'm not the greatest fan of Jair du Cochet, however even he has his
excuses - it was reported in the press both in France and this country
that he has some form of injury, (viral/respiratory) and wasn't right
after returning home from Kempton.
From what I've seen the Champion Hurdle is confused and unclear, and I'd
save my money until at least all the protagonists have had their first
starts
CHELTENHAM 2002
Tuesday 20 November 2001
KRACH
If you've taken the opportunity to read "ONE TO JUMP" our
horses to follow feature, it is clear that we are not afraid to
speculate on possible horses to follow. With that thought in mind I
offer you a horse from Francois Doumen's yard as one to watch out for
over hurdles. The horse is Krach who is a son of Lute Antique. This is a
real stamp of horse he is huge, but appeared to be quite light framed. I
was watching racing at Maison-Lafitte and watched him walking round the
paddock. He has so much scope, that it would be a travesty if that were
wasted on the flat. It's hard to say what he beat but there was plenty
to like about the way he did it (he travelled well on the outside
throughout, and used his massive stride to hold challengers at bay)
This apparently was only his second start, and I wouldn't be in the
slightest bit surprised if the next time he ran it wasn't over hurdles.
There is an element of risk here, however if I could add him to
"One to Jump" I would, so if he is ever entered up for races
over jumps in this country, you could do a lot worse than place a little
bet on his for the Triumph Hurdle
CHELTENHAM 2002
Monday, 19 November 2001
MAGNUS - IS HE A GOOD BUY?
Having considered this over the weekend, and having watched him win on
Sunday it is certainly my view that Magnus was a sound purchase, even if
he was a little expensive, but then again a Grade 1 winning jumper was
always going to be 'hot'. It makes more sense to me to spend £340,000
on a horse of his calibre, than the £170,000 spent by the connections
of Lord Joshua, who has so far only won an average maiden at Bath. I was
interested to note that Martin Pipe paid £17,000 for Hernandita who
came second in that race, so there could be plenty of interest irony if
those two meet over hurdles this winter
Magnus won the Prix Leon Olry-Roederer (Grade 2 hurdle) cosily on his
debut for connections, always travelling nicely before quickening past
the second Fou du Roy V on the flat with Kimbi in third. He has
previously beaten these two off of levels, so did well to beat them
conceding weight all round this time around.
He has now arrived safely with Martin Pipe, and will no doubt be given a
chance to settle in, and no doubt there will be plenty of interest in
his debut in this country, and we have noted the reports about this
horse going chasing, and he is already being backed for the Arkle.... A
bit of advice......
- If you had a horse capable of
winning the French Champion hurdle next June, would you race him
over fences this winter? ....
- Secondly if you bought a
champion-staying hurdler would you aim him at a novice chase over
the minimum trip?
Stay clear of Magnus for the Arkle
unless he [a] he goes over fences, and [b] proves he has the speed to
win over the minimum trip
This horse has already had four hard races this term, and was campaigned
towards the end of last term, so he's been on the go for a lot of this
year. I'm not totally convinced that he'll run very often season, so he
isn't really a betting proposition in our humble view, however If you
are really keen to have a bet on him now Cheltenham then the Stayers
Hurdle, (1st preference) or Sun Alliance Chases are more realistic
targets, though arguably he probably be favourite (or near favourite)
for both of these.
CHELTENHAM 2002
Sunday, 18 November 2001
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