ROYAL ASCOT (DAY FOUR, FINAL DAY)
Friday 23rd June
2:30 King Edward VII Stakes Class A (Group 2) 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Subtle Power, Roscius and Hatha Anna look the ones to concentrate on in race one. Subtle Power treads the same road that was followed with the same owner's Royal Anthem, who romped home in this race two years ago. After a minor race success, Subtle Power's colours were lowered by Dante Stakes fourth Shamrock City at Newmarket. That was a good effort given how well the York result worked out in the Derby. 

Derby sixth Hatha Anna confirmed critics with a bold sixth and whilst the form figures look unattractive, this individual has indicated to us, his long term potential and can surely on improve again this time around. Roscius is on a retrieval mission after a poor effort in the French Derby, but could go well if judged on his best efforts. A difficult choice really and but I'll go with Hatha Anna
1ST CHOICE _Hatha Anna
E/W Alt. _ The well-bred Zafonium 

3:05 Hardwicke Stakes Class A (Group 2) 
THE 4LONG POLE _ A race of Ifs and Buts and Maybes. Ground is the key to Shiva. If the ground eased enough to allow her to take part she would have to be feared, particularly if judged by her demolition job at Sandown, but she becomes very unattractive if conditions remain on the fast side. Last year's winner Fruits of Love goes well fresh, so can be expected to put in a bold bid. The Queen's Blueprint has come on from his win in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, and should go well. Greek Dance appears to have the beating of Mutafaweq and Urban Ocean on their latest form behind Montjeu at The Curragh, but Mutafaweq looked heavy that day, and I would expect him to come on considerably for that effort. So much so that in the absence of Shiva I think he can win this despite his Group 1 penalty 
1ST CHOICE _Mutafaweq
Alt. _ Shiva, if the heavens soften the ground 
E/W Alt _ Blueprint

3:45 Coronation Stakes Class A (Group 1) 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Crimplene, Zarkiya, Bluemamba, Amethyst, and Princess Ellen, head the market for a fascinating Coronations Stakes. There may not be much between these. Irish and German 1000 Guineas winner Crimplene is a tough filly who is likely to make another bold bid for success here. On the book she appears to hold Princess Ellen, and Amethyst on Irish 1,000 Guineas form, however this may a more truly run affair which may suit her protagonists 

4:20 Wokingham Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Strahan, Pepperdine, Tayseer, Harmonic Way, Nice One Clare, Royal Result, Deep Space, Doctor Spin, Tussle, Alegria, Danielle's Lad, Indian Spark, Sheer Viking, and Social Harmony, are likely to head a strong market for this thirty runner sprint follows. It is a bit of a lottery as you wouldn't know where the pace is likely to be and that may determine the outcome.

Pepperdine has laid out for this and should go well. Trainer Dandy Nichols has a strong hand in this, as apart from the likely favourite, he also has Royal Result, Tayseer, and Al Muallim who all could go close on their best efforts. Harmonic Way and Sheer Viking have been knocking on the door in competitive races and can be expected to make bold bids, which Indian Spark is in top form and should go close. This is likely to become two races in one. I'm going to take a chance and suggest that Pepperdine fails to win the race on his side, and Ho Leng, has conditions in his favour as present and 'wins' his battle whilst I can see Harmonic Way flying in the last furlong on the opposing side. I'd have eachway bets on both personally (too risky to punt heavily) but as I have to select one I'd go with Ho Leng 

1ST CHOICE _Ho Leng E/W
Alt. _ Harmonic Way 
LONG SHOT? Juwwi

4:55 Windsor Castle Stakes (Conditions Race) Class B 
THE 4LONG POLE _ This is a poor race by this meeting's standards. Only three previous winners line up and are the likeliest winners. I wouldn't say that the likes of Dietrich, and Pagliacci, couldn't improve on nice introductions, but I prefer to go with the proven form of Autumnal and Kachina Doll.

Autumnal's form looks good if Flying Millie ran to form in the Queen Mary on Wednesday, and must go well, but I prefer Kachina Doll, who is penalised just 2lb, after routing a field at Bath last time; winning by 6 lengths. Her Trainer has confirmed that she has blossomed once she started racing on better ground. 

1ST CHOICE _Kachina Doll
E/W Alt. _ Pagliacci
LONG SHOT _ Moonlight Dancer 

5:30 Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) Class B 
THE 4LONG POLE _ The last race of the meeting, and one of the most unique. A horse needs an abundance of stamina to truly stay 2miles 6furlongs on the flat. On this basis along you could rule out the form horses Dominant Duchess, Kahtan, and Winged Hussar. Conversely the trip should be right up Three Cheers' and Eilean Shona's streets. Three Cheers has already proven his well being with a win at Maison-Lafite over a mile and 7 furlongs, and this gelding placed behind Kayf Tara in the 1998 Gold Cup in my selection to hopefully end the meeting appropriately

1ST CHOICE _Three Cheers [R*ecommended], 
E/W Alt. _ Yorkshire

ROYAL ASCOT (DAY THREE)
Thursday 22nd June
2:30 Ribblesdale Stakes Class A (Group 2) 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Quite an interesting Ribblesdale Stakes opens the card. This Group 2 event has a reputation of being a graveyard for fillies coming on from the Oaks, so omitting Whitefoot and Kalypso Katie on these grounds is feasible. I wouldnt advise that though because arguably they are the horses with form this season to concentrate on.

Kalypso Katie lost nothing in defeat in the Oaks, and must go well. The same can be said of Whitefoot who is better judged on his previous stake when a smooth winner of a listed event at Newbury. Both should run well. Of the others Teggiano has had her problems and her form has not really stood up, Abscond struggled to win at Newbury on her last start and should struggle. With the stable in such good heart Interlude must be worthy of consideration. As my co-writer The Flatman indicates below, we are very sweet on this prospect who did well to extricate herself out of an unpromising position, yet still managed to get win on her debut going away by 3/4 of a length. She is definitely a filly going places this term, but can she win today?

1st CHOICE_ Interlude, I think she can
E/W Alt. _Unseeded

3:05 Norfolk Stakes Class A (Group 3) 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Not the greatest renewal of the Norfolk Stakes. I question whether this year's field deserves to win a Group Three; many of them are stepping up considerably of what they've done thus far. Whether it is reflected tomorrow or not, this surely is borne out by the high proximity of Superstar Leo in the overnight market. On her previous effort this horse won a Grade D novice event at Catterick. I wouldn't be surprised if she found a few too good.

Of the others, you have to respect Aiden O'Brien's charge Keats who is hard to evaluate after a narrow success at Cork on its debut, Shoeshine Boy who has at least won a class B race, but may be inconvenienced by the ground, and Mamma's Tonight, who beat Bouncing Bowdler (who opposes again today) 1 length when they met at Beverley 15 days ago. I think it is worth having a small eachway salver on Pan Jammer. He has run in this grade. He gave weight to a nice sort in Pirate of Penzance, and I don't think conditions will inconvenience him... Here's Hoping!!!
1st CHOICE_ Pan Jammer E/W
Alt. _Keats

3:45 Gold Cup Class A (Group 1) 
THE 4LONG POLE _Fascinating renewal of the Gold Cup. The field is headed by last year's winner Enzeli who has evidently been laid out for this, and despite being beaten confirmed his well-being with a good effort behind Royal Rebel at Leopardstown and is a solid place contender at worst. Previous winner Kayf Tara is the best horse in the race but last year he showed that he might be vulnerable at this trip on fast ground. I think the same can be said of Arctic Owl. 

Of the longer priced horses, stalwarts Celeric, Persian Punch, and Rainbow High can be given definitely chances on their best efforts, and should at least run their races, whilst strong cases can be made for Compton Ace, Life is Life and endorsement if they stay this trip. FURLONG TO GO believe that you should back who you believe can win the race, and I have to go with the best horse Kayf Tara. A lot is being made of the ground conditions. They would have been very fast in the Melbourne Cup but Godolphin had no qualms running him in it. I'd argue that if its value you desire that he may represent some by post time if that view gathers validity

1st CHOICE_ Kayf Tara [R*ecommended], 
E/W Alt. _Rainbow High
LONGSHOT? _ Life is Life

4:20 Cork And Orrery Stakes Class A (Group 2) 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Very open and competitive sprint. Lend A Hand, Pipalong, Bold Edge, Lincoln Dancer, Rossini, Sampower Star, Mount Abu, Sir Nicholas, Tomba, and Superior Premium, all have legitimate claims. I'm sure that there will be many a punter siding with Lend A Hand who has been for a while now a potential banker for the meeting since his impressive York win last month. He should go well. He won't have things all his own way as both Pipalong and Bold Edge weren't far behind then and with more give underfoot, could easily get much closer this afternoon. Others to consider I'd single out are the progressive three year olds Lincoln Dancer who demonstrated his talents when a very easy winner of competitive handicap at Haydock. He was also unlucky in running the 2,000 Guineas on ground too fast. Mount Abu, a very easy winner at Lingfield last time out, and Sir Nicholas, only just touched off by Mount Abu on his last start here 50 days ago. If the rains comes in time, there is likely to be a punt on Lincoln Dancer, and I'd recommended a saver on him, as he'll only run if there's rain then I'd suggest you stick with the favourite 

1st CHOICE_ Lend a Hand
E/W Alt. _Mount Abu (Lincoln Dancer if there's significant rainfall overnight)

The last two races are very tricky handicaps

4:55 King George V Stakes (Handicap) Class B 
THE 4LONG POLE _ Cover Up, Buckminster, Water Jump, Baldaquin, Film Script, Give The Slip, King's Mill, Star Cast, Air Defence, Inca Star, Bonaguil, and Foreign Secretary all are lightly raced and still therefore open improvement. However having tipped Film Script to win the Lingfield Oaks Trial on her latest effort, this listed winner looks to be on a good weight for a listed winner and can be a possible second winner of the day for the Queen 

1st CHOICE_ Film Script
E/W Alt. _Baldaquin
LONGSHOT? _ The maiden Purple Heather has some of the best credentials going into the race, and the first time out blinkers may help this thinker concentrate

5:30 Britannia Stakes (Handicap) Class B 
THE 4LONG POLE _ El Gran Papa, All The Gears, Atlantic Rhapsody, Red N' Socks, Malleus, Moon Solitaire, French Lieutenant, Kingdom Of Gold, Man O'Mystery, Sign Of Hope, French Horn, and Nooshman are likely to head the market in a typically impossible Britannia handicap. You really can make a case for most of the 32 runners due to line up. I like El Gran Papa who be thrown in at these, French Horn, well placed by his shrewd trainer, Nooshman, who should be suited by the pace of the race; Atlantic Rhapsody, just touched at Epsom last time, Kookaburra, 5legnths behind Shibboleth last time at Newmarket (form franked on Tuesday in the St James Palace Stakes) and Man of Mystery, a close 2nd to Medicean at Sandown (form also franked on Tuesday in the St James Palace Stakes). This looks the best line of form and I'll go with him to take the last 

1st CHOICE_ Man O'Mystery
E/W Alt. _Nooshman
LONGSHOT? _ Kookaburra

***************************

The Flatman's thoughts on Day three of the Meeting

2-30 This is an interesting contest with Interlude and Unseeded on our horses to follow list (the former much fancied for the Oaks itself) but it was another runner here Kalypso Katie who did appear in that particular contest who did absolutely nothing wrong in defeat in my opinion. She must be the logical form choice here. If only things were that simple. Historically Oaks runners do not perform well here and the Queen herself (who owns Interlude) has had the winner of this race in the recent past with a filly that skipped Epsom. Despite our excitement at the prospect of seeing Interlude on the racetrack, I nominate Kalypso Katie to reverse the trend of horses running poorly here after Epsom and to gain due reward here. The others make little appeal including Unseeded, who although appreciating the step back up to 12F probably is not up to this and may require a slower surface. If, the heavens open, she may come into it

3-05 As with all Aiden O'Brien two year olds at this meeting Keats must be given careful consideration. Others to watch are Superstar Leo, Misty Eyed (may go well at a big price) and Shoeshine Boy. I was so impressed by Shoeshine Boy at Ascot last time over this distance that I noted him down as a Royal Ascot winner then. He is just about the form pick in any case and will do for me here.

3-45 Enzeli [R*ecommended], last year's winner at 6-1 will do for me. Though there won't be much between him and Kayf Tara the latter is at a much shorter price. Artic Owl has a useful turn of foot if the race is run at a crawl while Henry Cecil's Endorsement has been the subject of some encouraging whispers all week. But, for those of you wanting to take a chance on a long shot at an each way price I suggest Compton Ace is the best candidate. This one has always promised to excel over this sort of trip and is more unexposed than many here. Persian Punch has disappointed in this race too many times in the past to warrant serious consideration here despite being a thoroughly good stayer.

4-20 Long time fan of Lend a Hand [R*ecommended], and he must not be missed here. Pipalong who is performing out of her skin this year can follow this one home. Mount Abu would be the other to think about. 

4-55 Very, very competitive. Few can be discounted. The suggestion is for the Cover Up and Buckminster form line to come to the fore here. While this is not a race to be taking a short price about any horse - on the basis that Cover Up is allowed to go off at a reasonable price we will stick with him. Keep an eye on Buckminster (Gosden has a super Ascot record) - he also has two other entries by the way - as the each way selection.

5-30 Just as difficult. Atlantic Rhapsody (stable striking form), Man o Mystery, Argentan and El Gran Papa (both Gosden), Sign of Hope, Nooshman all need to be looked at closely. While I'm very scared about opposing El Gran Papa (Gosden likes to win this race) I will do so with Sign of Hope. This is a striking individual who seems to be going the right way and has a nice turn of foot. He could come home at a very nice price indeed. Here's hoping. Good luck to you all.


The Flatman

Friday 16 June 2000
ROYAL HUNT CUP _ by FURLONG TO GO

FURLONG TO GO has always adopted the policy; to provide our readership with selected horses, which we believe will win their respective races, regardless of value. We leave the decision on whether a bet should be struck (taking into account of the question of value) to the individual punter.

We changed policy on the Derby, since we recognised that a fair percentage of punters prefer to find 'value' ala the Racing Post's Pricewise column. One need only look at their success rate to see the effect this can have on the markets -

In selecting Inchnolaig at 50/1 at the beginning of Derby week, we believe we succeeded in "beating the book". We have attempted therefore to adopt this strategy again, and are once again on the search for value and this time we have taken on the challenge of this most competitive of handicaps. This is some task with trainer's running plans uncertain, ground conditions unclear and not least, that there are 91 entries at the time of writing which includes a multiple Godolphin entry. 

The obvious starting point with only a maximum field of 32 permitted is to discount those unlikely to get a run - those towards the bottom end of the handicap - who will not even get the chance to run unless there are major defections at the top end. One obvious value fancy, Fallachan 25-1who appears to be coming to hand and is looking quite well handicapped cannot be considered on these grounds, which is unfortunate. 

The Market Leaders (8-1/16-1)

Three horses head the list in this category with Caribbean Monarch at 8-1 the clear market leader (the favourites in the Hunt Cup have a poor recent record). In our view, this represents a fair price but not a value one. This horse, who incidentally is one of our flat horses to follow (a full list can be found on the website) is undoubtedly well handicapped and must have a leading chance. He is, however, a somewhat unlucky horse and he is beginning to be a bridesmaid once to often for our liking. As we have said in our comments on him on the site, we feel his real potential may rest with a test over a stiff six furlongs (Sir Michael please take note) and this is when we will get involved financially. John Ferneley 16-1 has clearly been laid out for this but one has to suspect the ground (we anticipate good to firm) will be plenty quick enough for him which could make his participation doubtful. The final 16-1 shot is Tillerman who is a lightly raced individual with two wins from three starts. One cannot help but feel that he has his fair share of weight on what he has achieved and on that basis his price is only a fair one. He does however suggest that there is scope for a good deal of improvement, and on this basis (we believe he is Group material) this makes him one to consider. 

The Rest (20-1/25-1)

The remainder of the horses (bar one - see below) with some sort of chance all fall into this price bracket. Pantar's price of 20-1 is on the short side, while he often runs with credit in these big mile handicaps on straight courses he is not really good enough for this (he disappointed in last year's race when well fancied). Persiano 20-1 is a similar case, overall level of form is not quite up to this and the price adequately reflects his chance. Bomb Alaska 25-1 has not repeated last year's efforts this term and appears to have lost his way. Exeat 25-1 has just one 6F win to his credit but is often placed (as behind the useful Duck Row last time) which is reflected in his handicap mark which now looks on the high side for his achievements. Pythios (Cecil) is of much interest - it is worth noting when Cecil keeps an older horse in training - 20-1 is his price. He won the Britannia over course and distance as a three year old but ran appallingly, however, at the Derby meeting at Epsom on his seasonal reappearance and although the ground and his lack of race fitness almost certainly played there part he is passed over. 

The Barry Hill's representatives (both 20-1) must come into calculations. Showboat (who done some of us here including The Flatman a big favour in this race last year) and Calcutta who looks to have been specially prepared for this have leading chances. Similarly, Free Option 25-1 comes into the picture on his best form and made a pleasing comeback at York behind Mayaro Bay (who pinched the race) and Caribbean Monarch. He is weighted to finish alongside these two and is three times the price of the favourite and more consistent than Mayaro Bay (whose stable is under the weather). Holly Blue from the Charlton stable (largely closed down at present) at 25-1 must be considered at doubtful runner. Jo Mell 25-1 has returned to his best recently but 7F on softer ground than he is likely to encounter next week are his preferred conditions. Bold King 25-1 is another who looks best over 7F and a softer surface (also has other engagements this weekend). Sharmy 25-1 from the Stoute yard simply does not look up to the tasks on known form while Nobelist 25-1ran poorly last time and may prefer further. 

The ultra tough Pulah Tioman 25-1 would be a strong candidate on a softer surface on his sterling efforts earlier this year and at Haydock last time but we suspect he will not turn out. Espada 25-1 also takes our eye (closely matched with Pulah Tioman) but again he is deemed to prefer a softer surface. So what of the Godolphin team. We have no clues to their running plans and their form from Ned Al Sheba is difficult to translate to English form. We suspect that Easaar 25-1 is the best of the bunch (with Iftitah probably best at 7F and holding the likes of Siege and Slip Stream held on some form lines). But with running plans a big doubt it may be best to wait to nearer the time when running plans are clearer. 

As Godolphin have had placed horses in this race previously under large weights their representatives must be given the closest inspection. The Irish entry of Major Force (not quoted among the market leaders) and Gold Chaser 25-1 can be opposed. Major Force has top weight of 10:1 (that could stop a tank) and this smart Group winner of 7F races on soft surfaces clearly is unlikely to get these conditions next week. He may pull out in an attempt to get Gold Chaser in the race but that plan looks unlikely to succeed in view of the number of entries ahead of that one in the entries. 

The Long Shots

Brilliant Red is the only one that appeals as such a candidate. 33-1 (with the likes of Hills and the Tote) is suited by a fast surface, looks certain to run and has shown a decent level of form last year (although he has not shown much this in two runs). He is effective at 8F and 10F. One could do worse than to consider this one. 

Summary

We have cut the 91 horses down to just six with value in mind; Tillerman, Showboat, Calcutta, Free Option, Easaar and Brilliant Red. 

The Flat Man
I suspect that Free Option and Brilliant Red are both probably not quite good enough overall to win this and who knows quite what plans the Godolphin's team have in mind to justify a bet on any of their team at this stage which leaves us with Showboat and Calcutta. It is not just sentiment .that I choose Showboat as the selection as he has shown that he is a smart performer in his own right particularly in last year's race where he slaughtered the opposition. Despite being raised 16 pounds since then this only covers the amount he had in hand that day and he has won off a higher mark since. He is genuine and consistent and has a touch of class in a race, which (like last year) lacks overall quality. Calcutta, is nicely weighted and has been laid out for this, but did not do enough at Epsom last time (under a quiet ride) to think he is about to come back to his best which is why his stablemate gets the nod. If Barry Hills can achieve this, however, then he holds a very respectable chance. Is a Hill's horse first and second an option to those of you who like to have more adventurous types of bet? - 

1st Preference ¬ Showboat
2nd Preference ¬ Calcutta
3rd Preference ¬ Easaar

The 4Long Pole

In total agreement with The Flat Man's summary, but if he's right its very hard to ignore a potential Group horse of off 9-0, so I think Tillerman, with almost everything about the race guaranteed to suit is my personal preferred

1st Preference ¬ Tillerman
2nd Preference ¬ Showboat
3rd Preference ¬ Brilliant Red

We suggest that there will be worse bets made this season. 

Good luck. 

The Flat Man and The 4Long Pole

ROYAL ASCOT (DAY TWO)

Wednesday 21st June

2:30 Jersey Stakes Class A (Group 3) 
The 4long Pole ¬Nicobar, Monashee Mountain, Fath, Observatory, Three Points, Danceabout, Blu Air Force, Free Rider, Makaarem, Umistim, and Hunting Lion, are likely market leaders for a competitive opener, with some potential big improvers taking on the more established types. Fath is likely to improve on his disappointing showing in the 2000 Guineas and has to be respected. Similar comments apply to Monashee Mountain, who disappointed slighted in the french equivalent. That said, it is within the realms of possibility that he should appreciate this trip/track much more than he appeared to Longchamp. Nicobar, Hunting Lion, and Danceabout are unknown quantities in so far as there is significant improvement in them and against I wouldn't rule them out. Shibboleth's good run yesterday lends support to Observatory's chances particularly as he made up an appreciate amount of ground of that horse that day. He looked like he would come on a lot for the experience. Umistim, and Blu Air Force are also ones to consider.

This isn't a race to pay the mortgage off on. I have to place faith in John Gosden's judgement here. The way he ran on behind Shibboleth suggested Observatory may want a bit further, but that is very good form, and I think he can make good use of the Group penalties that Monashee Mountain, Blu Air Force and Umistim carry 

1st CHOICE ¬ Observatory
E/W Alt. ¬Blu Air Force
LONG SHOT? ¬ Hunting Lion 

3:05 Queen Mary Stakes Class A (Group 3) 
The 4long Pole ¬ Dance On, Romantic Myth, Little Firefly, Al Ihsas, Flying Millie, Oh So Dusty, Final Pursuit, Freefourracing, Midnight Arrow, Dreams Desire, Secret Index, and Strange Destiny, head the market for a competitive-looking renewal of the Queen Mary. The filed contains some promising types that will pay to note over the coming moths. I selected Al Ihsas, on her debut when greenness prevented her beating Final Pursuit. I have no doubt that the placings will be reversed here. Flying Millie, won nicely at Windsor and the form of that win is working out well. 

Northern hopes will rest with Romantic Myth. The last-named has done everything asked of her in exemplary style and looks capable of holding her own at this higher level. Others worthy of mention are Dance On, Little Firefly, Secret Index, and Dreams Desire. These are thus far unbeaten and sure to run with distinction. I'm certain Al Ihlas will be placed and should go close. I'm a bit concerned that her immaturity may defeat her again, and I'd therefore go with Flying Millie's solid looking credentials 

1st CHOICE ¬Flying Millie
E/W Alt. ¬Al Ilhas
LONG SHOT? ¬Secret Index

3:45 Prince of Wales's Stakes Class A (Group 1) 
The 4long Pole ¬ Should be one of the races of the meeting. Dubai Millennium and Sendawar do look streets ahead of their rivals in what should be a classic confrontation. The tactics seem obvious. There is no way that Dubai Millennium, and maybe Rhythm Band are not going to come out and stretch Sendawar from the gun. Official rating suggest there isn't much between them, but the proven stamina of Dubai Millennium earns him narrow preference. If there is one danger it is that a suicidal pace ensues. If that did occurs you could do a lot worse that have a small wager on the progressive King Adam, a cheeky winner on his reappearance at Doncaster eleven days ago.

1st CHOICE ¬Dubai Millenium
E/W Alt. ¬King Adam
LONG SHOT? ¬

4:20 Royal Hunt Cup Showcase Handicap Class B 
The 4long Pole ¬ We reviewed this last week when we were trying to find you a value bet in the race.

"FURLONG TO GO has always adopted the policy; to provide our readership with selected horses, which we believe will win their respective races, regardless of value. We leave the decision on whether a bet should be struck (taking into account of the question of value) to the individual punter. We changed policy on the Derby, since we recognised that a fair percentage of punters prefer to find 'value' ala the Racing Post's Pricewise column. One need only look at their success rate to see the effect this can have on the markets - In selecting Inchnolaig at 50/1 at the beginning of Derby week, we believe we succeeded in "beating the book". We have attempted therefore to adopt this strategy again, and are once again on the search for value and this time we have taken on the challenge of this most competitive of handicaps. This is some task with trainer's running plans uncertain, ground conditions unclear and not least, that there are 91 entries at the time of writing which includes a multiple Godolphin entry. 

The obvious starting point with only a maximum field of 32 permitted is to discount those unlikely to get a run - those towards the bottom end of the handicap - who will not even get the chance to run unless there are major defections at the top end. One obvious value fancy, Fallachan 25-1 who appears to be coming to hand and is looking quite well handicapped cannot be considered on these grounds, which is unfortunate. 

The Market Leaders (8-1/16-1) 
Three horses head the list in this category with Caribbean Monarch at 8-1 the clear market leader (the favourites in the Hunt Cup have a poor recent record). In our view, this represents a fair price but not a value one. This horse, who incidentally is one of our flat horses to follow (a full list can be found on the website) is undoubtedly well handicapped and must have a leading chance. He is, however, a somewhat unlucky horse and he is beginning to be a bridesmaid once to often for our liking. As we have said in our comments on him on the site, we feel his real potential may rest with a test over a stiff six furlongs (Sir Michael please take note) and this is when we will get involved financially. John Ferneley 16-1 has clearly been laid out for this but one has to suspect the ground (we anticipate good to firm) will be plenty quick enough for him, which could make his participation doubtful. The final 16-1 shot is Tillerman who is a lightly raced individual with two wins from three starts. One cannot help but feel that he has his fair share of weight on what he has achieved and on that basis his price is only a fair one. He does however suggest that there is scope for a good deal of improvement, and on this basis (we believe he is Group material) this makes him one to consider. 

The Rest (20-1/25-1) 
The remainder of the horses (bar one - see below) with some sort of chance all fall into this price bracket. Pantar's price of 20-1 is on the short side, while he often runs with credit in these big mile handicaps on straight courses he is not really good enough for this (he disappointed in last year's race when well fancied). Persiano 20-1 is a similar case, overall level of form is not quite up to this and the price adequately reflects his chance. Bomb Alaska 25-1 has not repeated last year's efforts this term and appears to have lost his way. Exeat 25-1 has just one 6F win to his credit but is often placed (as behind the useful Duck Row last time) which is reflected in his handicap mark, which now looks on the high side for his achievements. Pythios (Cecil) is of much interest - it is worth noting when Cecil keeps an older horse in training - 20-1 is his price. He won the Britannia over course and distance as a three year old but ran appallingly, however, at the Derby meeting at Epsom on his seasonal reappearance and although the ground and his lack of race fitness almost certainly played there part he is passed over. 

The Barry Hill's representatives (both 20-1) must come into calculations. Showboat (who done some of us here including The Flatman a big favour in this race last year) and Calcutta who looks to have been specially prepared for this have leading chances. Similarly, Free Option 25-1 comes into the picture on his best form and made a pleasing comeback at York behind Mayaro Bay (who pinched the race) and Caribbean Monarch. He is weighted to finish alongside these two and is three times the price of the favourite and more consistent than Mayaro Bay (whose stable is under the weather). Holly Blue from the Charlton stable (largely closed down at present) at 25-1 must be considered at doubtful runner. Jo Mell 25-1 has returned to his best recently but 7F on softer ground than he is likely to encounter next week are his preferred conditions. Bold King 25-1 is another who looks best over 7F and a softer surface (also has other engagements this weekend). Sharmy 25-1 from the Stoute yard simply does not look up to the tasks on known form while Nobelist 25-1 ran poorly last time and may prefer further. 

The ultra tough Pulah Tioman 25-1 would be a strong candidate on a softer surface on his sterling efforts earlier this year and at Haydock last time but we suspect he will not turn out. Espada 25-1 also takes our eye (closely matched with Pulah Tioman) but again he is deemed to prefer a softer surface. So what of the Godolphin team. We have no clues to their running plans and their form from Ned Al Sheba is difficult to translate to English form. We suspect that Easaar 25-1 is the best of the bunch (with Iftitah probably best at 7F and holding the likes of Siege and Slip Stream held on some form lines). But with running plans a big doubt it may be best to wait to nearer the time when running plans are clearer. 

As Godolphin have had placed horses in this race previously under large weights their representatives must be given the closest inspection. The Irish entry of Major Force (not quoted among the market leaders) and Gold Chaser 25-1 can be opposed. Major Force has top weight of 10:1 (that could stop a tank) and this smart Group winner of 7F races on soft surfaces clearly is unlikely to get these conditions next week. He may pull out in an attempt to get Gold Chaser in the race but that plan looks unlikely to succeed in view of the number of entries ahead of that one in the entries. 

The Long Shots 
Brilliant Red is the only one that appeals as such a candidate. 33-1 (with the likes of Hills and the Tote) is suited by a fast surface, looks certain to run and has shown a decent level of form last year (although he has not shown much this in two runs). He is effective at 8F and 10F. One could do worse than to consider this one". 

As it's worked out, these comments can form a good basis for making our selections. There is pace all over the course here, so hopefully there will not be a clear draw bias-last year high numbers were favoured. When I wrote that piece then I couldn't hide my enthusiasm for Tillerman who created such a good impression last term that he should make a bold bid if he manages to switch off early on. Like many of the horses I follow, he does suggest that he is capable of a fair bit better than we have seen thus far. The appeal of a potential Group horse in this handicap off of 9-0 is too tempting. He's the selection. 

1st CHOICE ¬ Tillerman
A couple of longer prices horse to go well
E/W Alt. ¬ Cardiff Arms gets into this race on an interesting mark on his best Australasian form 
LONG SHOT? ¬The Prince, race will be run to suit, if he can get the breaks

4:55 Chesham Stakes Class A (Listed Race) 
The 4long Pole ¬ Hard race to call. Of those with public form Celtic Silence, Leopard Spot, Baaridd, and She Rocks appeal. Add the unraced Vacamonte, and Archduke Ferdinand, and I'd be surprised if the winner came from outside that selection. I'll go with the potentially useful Baaridd, who created such a great impression at Good wood on his debut. He's already crying out for the 7th furlong and can only improve on that effort
1st CHOICE ¬Baaridd
E/W Alt. ¬She Rocks
LONG SHOT? ¬Academic Accuracy

5:30 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) Class C 
The 4long Pole ¬The final race on day two makes little appeal. Very much resembles a hurdle race over the flat; such is the make up of this field. Heros Fatal, Bangalore, Eastwell Hall, Captain Miller, Mane Frame, Prairie Falcon, Alhawa, Barba Papa, Sharazan, Son Of Snurge, and Generosa look the likely market leaders. Martin Pipe obviously wants to win this judging by his entry, and you would have thought that Heros Fatal has been laid out for this. Bangalore, Captain Miller, Al Hawa and Generosa appeal as much, and in truth I'd probably want a few quid eachway on a couple of these to make the last interesting. Looking at the weights. If this were a hurdle race, I suspect Generosa would be a very warm order, and I'll make her a sporting eachway bet in the finale. 
1st CHOICE ¬ Generosa E/W
Alt. ¬Captain Miller
LONG SHOT? ¬Historic


*********************


The Flatman's Thoughts on Day Two

2:30 A tricky heat. While I could give chances to Race Leader, Fath, Nicobar and Scarteen Fox let us be adventurous and take a chance that Danceabout can improve significantly on her maiden win at Goodwood (Wragg would not be running her at Ascot if he didn't think she was up to it) and win this opening heat at decent price. 

3:05 Most competitive race of the day without a doubt (sixteen previous winners). Keep stakes to a minimum is the Flatman's advice but Romantic Myth is the selection. 

3:45 Not surprisingly, I see no reason to oppose the front two - Dubai Millennium and Sendawar. FTG has analysed this race in some depth, which I won't repeat here. I side with the Godolphin horse.

4:20 I stick by our comments in our ante - post review with Easaar, Tillerman, Calcutta and Free Option our contenders. While any ease in the ground would allow John Ferneley and Espada to come into the picture, and some rain is forecast, the remainder in the race who have come in lower down the handicap do not appeal. However, with the pace in the race appearing to come from those drawn low, this could hamper the chances of Tillerman (who my colleague FTG is keen on) although Yarob could help to make the pace on that side. So with Godolphin's having horses placed in this race previously under large weights Easaar must be a leading candidate but it is Calcutta who must be the win selection. The defection of Showboat (his stable companion) who we were very keen on might be a tip in itself for this one. If the ground goes on the soft side of good, then John Ferneley and Espada can come right into the picture. 

4:55 I can see Baaridd performing with credit and Shush should be suited by this trip. Vacamonte is an interesting unraced contender (Cecil) who may go close but lets stick with the slightly more experienced Celtic Silence (recommended) to deliver. Mark Johnston is particularly sweet on this fellow. 

5:30 Not a great race it has to be said. Bangalore must be considered along with the likes of Thames Dancer. The multiple Pipe entries must be looked at closely as he has a reasonable record in this race. But lets take Sharazan to take advantage of his featherweight - he stays all day and seems genuine enough. 



The Flatman


If you want to know whether there are any to avoid, The 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse are waiting for your custom

Tuesday 20 June 2000

ROYAL ASCOT (DAY ONE)

Below are my selections for today's race meetings. For each race, I have given you who, in my view, are the likeliest winner, as well as horses who
Could run well at eachway odds. Key_ [R*ecommended], these horses have in our view the best chances of success each day.

2:30 Queen Anne Stakes Class A (Group 2) 
The 4Long Pole ¬ Intriguing opener. Almost certainly going to be run at a strong pace, with Aljabr, Muhtathir, and Dansili preferring to force a decent pace. Aljabr a top-class miler on his day has already proven that he isn't necessary going to fold up if that occurs, his win in the Sussex Stakes proves that he is a tough nut to crack. His victory in the Lockinge Stakes was both decent and muddling, and under his Group 1 penalty may not confirm his superiority over Indian Lodge, Golden Silca and Sugarfoot. 

French raider Dansili is also to be feared. He has already amassed two easy wins, the last of which was in the Group 2, Prix du Muguet at Saint Cloud, in which he beat Kingsalsa who has won since. As he has won on good ground he shouldn't be too inconvenienced by the going on the uphill straight course. These two could easily dictate the others out of the race and are to be feared..... What of the others? Kalanisi is open to improvement, but I suspect wants further. He should be staying on at the death. Showboat, will be suited by the expected decent pace, and can be expect to run creditably, and I strongly suspect the progressive handicap Swallow Flight, and Golden Silca are up to this task, especially the way this race is likely to pan out.

Who do I think will win?
I think Dansili is greatly improved this year and can make the most of the weight he gets from Aljabr 
1st CHOICE ¬Dansili
E/W Alt. ¬Swallow Flight
Long Shot? ¬ Showboat 

3:05 King's Stand Stakes Class A (Group 2) 
The 4Long Pole ¬Rudi's Pet, Bertolini, Imperial Beauty, Agnes World, Cassandra Go, Nuclear Debate, and Flanders are the likeliest winners of this open sprint. Rudi's Pet is almost certainly going to be popular after his good winning reappearance at Leopardstown, and must go well. As should Imperial Beauty who put in a pleasing reappearance behind Perrryston View at Sandown and should reverse places with that opponent. Bertolini has been knocking on the door in top sprints and has to be feared although he does have to prove himself at the minimum trip. I'd take a chance with Prix de L'Abbaye winner Agnes World with conditions to suit, who has confirmed his well being with a good third placing in his native Japan. The draw has not been kind, but he may be able to compensate for that and is a decent eachway bet at the very least 
1st CHOICE ¬Agnes World E/W [R*ecommended], 
Alt. ¬Rudi's Pet
Long Shot? ¬ Rambling Bear

3:45 St James's Palace Stakes Class A Showcase Race (Group 1) 
The 4Long Pole ¬ 
English and Irish Guineas form comes under the severest scrutiny in this event, and the market truly reflects the openness of this event. Giant's Causeway, Cape Town and Bachir have the honour of representing this form. I have an open mind about Giants Causeway. Either the trip of a mile is too far, or he's crying out further. Either way whilst he must go well in the back of my mind would be that nagging susceptibility. 

Bachir and China Visit have to be respected, and there surely isn't that much between Godolphin's pair. Shibboleth is unbeaten and open to improvement, but I am very sceptical that he too really wants a strongly run mile race. His weak finish at Newmarket last time was worrying, bearing in mind the stronger opposition today. I am going to very brave and suggest that you consider Inglenook for this event. 

I have made no secret of my enthusiasm for the horse, and I accept that he isn't as battle-hardened as some of his opponents. His ace card may be his pace, which he used to devastating effect at Kempton on his second start. After being badly booked in, Pat Eddery extricated him and then produced that telling burst of speed that good horses have. I have reading the commentary from respective judges who think the ground may inconvenience him. Being by Cadeau Genereaux I'd argue it's a bonus. I think he's an eachway must, and its only my thought that he may want a bit more time that stops me being more confident 

1st CHOICE ¬ Inglenook [R*ecommended], (16/1 E/W is probably the safest option) 
Alt. ¬Giant's Causeway
Long Shot? Valentino

4:20 Coventry Stakes Class A (Group 3) 
The 4Long Pole ¬Not the greatest renewal of the Coventry Stakes and to be honest it cant hold much interest from a betting prospective since most of the form of the main protagonist is on a soft surface. This race has 'shock result' written all over it, and if it weren't for FURLONG TO GO policy I'd probably give it a miss. I'd expect Triple Blue to improve on his previous effort, as I don't think Epsom suited him but he may have to give best to Modigliani in the hope that he takes after close relative Rodrigo de Triano, who had a marked preference for a sound surface. 
1st CHOICE ¬ Modigliani
E/W Alt. ¬Cd Europe
Long Shot? ¬ Imperial Dancer

4:55 Queen's Vase Class A (Group 3) 
The 4Long Pole ¬ A typical renewal of the Queen's Vase. Thirteen line up of which in what looks on paper an open affair. Dalampour, Samsaam, Dubai Two Thousand, Optimaite, Waffigg, Miss Lorilaw, Kuwait Trooper, and Riddlesdown, head the market. Dalampour and Dubai Two Thousand are really nice prospects but I'm not convinced that 2miles round ascot is what they wanted at this stage o f their careers, and are worth opposing. Conversely Samsaam, Optimaite, Ribblesdown, Waffigg, and Kuwait Trooper have proven form around this trip and must be major players. Although he hasn't quite taken on this calibre of opponent. Samsaam manner of racing makes him a good bet in this event. I love the way he travels so effortlessly during his races, and the fact he also has a turn of foot may prove decisive close home. 

1st CHOICE ¬Samsaan [R*ecommended], 
E/W Alt. ¬ Ravenswood
Long Shot? ¬ Waffigg


5:30 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) Class B 
The 4Long Pole ¬ National Anthem, Westender, Rada's Daughter, Gallery God, Sharp Stepper, Afterjacko, Veridian, Hirapour, Katiykha, Ulundi, Akbar, April Stock, and Carlys Quest head the market in an ultra-competitive finale to day one. It is difficult to eliminate National Anthem from your deliberations after his smooth defeat of supply and Demand at Newmarket last time out. At the second has since won a decent handicap effortlessly its hard to see him finishing out of the money. He, Rada's daughter, Katiykha, Akbar, and Afterjacko are singled out for this. I just prefer Afterjacko, who is ridden by a pilot he gets on with, and should be suited by the hurly burly of this tricky event. There is also the knowledge that this individual is probably a few pounds ahead of the handicapper. Lets hope he send us home happy 
1st CHOICE ¬Afterjacko 
E/W Alt. ¬Katiykha, 
Long Shot? Rain in Spain

That's what I think, but what about The Flatman?


The Flatman's thoughts on Day One of the Meeting
2:30 While I do not know the prices in this race I suspect Kalanisi might be a value alternative to Aljabr who I confess to thinking is the most likely winner. I just feel he is open to improvement (Aljabr is penalised) and was unsuited by the race last time. I believe he can get very close to Aljabr. I feel he can certainly turnaround form with Swallow Flight and hold Showboat again. Indian Lodge/Sugarfoot are pretty much on form comparable to Swallow Flight so there is not much between this lot. Others don't appeal much to me for various other reasons. 
1st CHOICE ¬ Aljabr
E/W Alt. ¬ Kalanisi

3:05 
1st CHOICE ¬ Rudi's Pet [R*ecommended], 
E/W Alt. ¬

3:45 
1st CHOICE ¬Inglenook 
2nd CHOICE ¬ China Visit

4:20 
Don't fancy the English challengers much (doubts about Hannon's runners must be considered) and many of the others needing a softer surface (Taras Emperor for example). So, although I don't know much about Modigliani, he will do on the basis of his trainer's record with two year olds this year and the fact that he is the chosen one from a number of entries.
1st CHOICE ¬ Modigliani, 
E/W Alt. ¬

4:55 
1st CHOICE ¬ Waffigg 

5:30 
1st CHOICE ¬ National Anthem [R*ecommended], 
E/W Alt. ¬ Akbar

This page was updated - Friday December 28, 2001 10:41:21 AM