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Analysis & Selections by
.t.h.e. .r.o.o.k.
Whether it be
"the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er CHOICE), as well as
the next best runners (in our view, this can include any horses who could run well at eachway
odds). Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
ROYAL ASCOT
Wednesday, June 19th 2002
¦ 1° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 2:30 Jersey Stakes {gr. 3} £75000 added, 3yo only, 7f, penalty £43500, 16 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Redback, [third in our Guineas, on a recovery mission after a poor effort in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (Group 1)]
Meshaheer [well beaten in the 2000 guineas, but worthy of consideration if judged on his two year old form], Millennium Dragon, [highly impressive in winning his
last two starts, most recently when beating Indian Country at Newmarket, at the beginning of May]; Compton Dragon, [who
hasn't built on his early season form on the all-weather]; Twilight Blues, [well beaten by Rock of
Gibraltar in the Irish 2000 Guineas - though this is far easier], Approval, [who has the ability to win this, however has twice flattered to deceive on both starts this term]; Hidden Dragon, [has to be respected representing Ballydoyle, but is very difficult to
evaluate based on his sole win at the Curragh almost a year ago], and Seihali [a typically unexposed late
developer from Alec Stewart's yard - who should be capable of building on his win at Nottingham five weeks ago.] look the horses to
concentrate on in the opener on day two of the Royal Meeting. Its perfectly possible that Redback could bounce back here - arguably he is the form horse going into this race, however so easily has Millennium Dragon won his last two starts, that I'd prefer to stick with the potential improver. On that train of thought, Seihali is a very
interesting entry from a yard not renowned for over-facing their horses (especially the less mature ones). He may be better over further in time, however it
wouldn't surprise me if he managed to get into the frame.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Millennium Dragon,
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Seihali, (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Redback,
¦ 2° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:05 Queen Mary Stakes {gr. 3} (Fillies) £60000 added, 2yo only fillies, 5f, penalty £34800, 19 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Richard Hannon has a particularly strong hand in the
second as Rag Top, [unbeaten in her three starts most recently, when winning the Swordlestown Stud Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) at the beginning of the month], and Presto Vento [also
unbeaten in three starts on the racecourse - her most recent win being at Sandown when landing the National Stakes (Listed Race)] and Katdogawn [who
quickened up smartly to win on her debut at Bath, having missed the break]. It
isn't however a three-horse affair, as you can make cases for Queen's Victory, [who only has a half length to find with Rag Top on their
meeting at Newbury a month ago - her racecourse debut]; Dusty Dazzler, [who has won two from three going
into this race]; Never A Doubt, [who got her head in front at the third time of asking when
quickening up nicely at Sandown]; Proud Beauty, [very easy in the market on her debut at
Leopardstown at the end of May, who may improve on better ground.] Red Galaxy,
[unbeaten this far, however this looks far harder that her previous assignments] and Fovant [who improved on her debut effort to win at Newbury two week ago]. Assuming he had the choice, it is a surprise that Richard Hughes has
chosen Katdogawn, however I have to respect that view and she must go close here. Queen's Victory
should have benefited for her debut effort and it wouldnt surprise me if she
didn't land this prize for Mick Channon.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬> Queen's Victory,
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Katdogawn
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Proud Beauty, (e/w)
¦ 3° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:45 Prince of Wales's Stakes {gr. 1} £250000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 2f, penalty £145000, 14 runners.
Bach , trained by A P O´Brien
Cape Town , trained by R Hannon
Carnival Dancer , trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Chancellor , trained by B W Hills
Desert Deer , trained by M Johnston
Freefourinternet (USA), trained by B J Meehan
Grandera , trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Indian Creek , trained by D R C Elsworth
Nayef (USA), trained by M P Tregoning
Paolini (GER) , trained by A Wohler in Germany
Poussin , trained by E Lellouche in France
Sydenham (USA), trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Banks Hill , trained by A Fabre in France
Golden Silca , trained by M R Channon
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A great Group one event, with several of these having particularly strong claims. The likely favourite is Banks Hill, so impressive when landing the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) last October, who made a pleasing reappearance in the Prix d'Ispahan (Group 1), which Best of the Bests stole from the front. She needed the run that day and will strip a lot fitter here, and is entitled to close inspection. The same applies to Nayef [so impressive when landing the Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) in March, who is surely better than he showed in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) at the Curragh last time out]; Desert Deer, [who thrashed a useful field by 9lengths on his recent start], Bach [amazingly consistent 'tool', who finished in front of Nayef in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1)] Grandera, [He looked good when winning the Singapore Airlines International Cup (Group 1) at Kranji five weeks ago, though how good is that form?] Carnival Dancer, [Fancy entries - poor returns ... connections believe he is better than he's shown thus far]; Poussin, [a lovely horse who does seem to always find bad luck in running, however he proved in the Prix d'Ispahan that he is not a horse to underestimate], and Paolini [a creditable second to Grandera in the Singapore Airlines International Cup (Group 1) at Kranji five weeks ago, who has solid European Group form behind him]. If Banks Hill has come on for her debut run, she has to be feared, and I would be loathed to oppose her. Desert Deer, Nayef, Poussin and Paolini look to be the main dangers
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Banks Hill
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Paolini (GER), (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Poussin
¦ 4° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:20 Royal Hunt Cup Showcase H' cap £120000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £69600, 32 runners.
Pulau Tioman , trained by M A Jarvis
Surprise Encounter , trained by E A L Dunlop
Bourgainville , trained by I A Balding
Smirk , trained by D R C Elsworth
One More Round (USA), trained by D K Weld in Ireland
Sea Star , trained by H R A Cecil
Putra Pekan , trained by M A Jarvis
Kelburne (USA), trained by I Semple
Zucchero , trained by D W P Arbuthnot
Scotty´s Future , trained by D Nicholls
Heretic , trained by J R Fanshawe
Calcutta , trained by B W Hills
Broadway Score (USA), trained by J W Hills
Norton , trained by T G Mills
Beauchamp Pilot , trained by G A Butler
Thihn , trained by J L Spearing
Atlantic Ace , trained by B Smart
Island Light , trained by A C Stewart
Faithful Warrior (USA), trained by B W Hills
Elmhurst Boy , trained by S Dow
Mana Mou Bay , trained by D Nicholls
Muchea , trained by M R Channon
Nashaab (USA), trained by R M Beckett
Inchdura , trained by R Charlton
Danelor , trained by E A L Dunlop
Morro Castle (USA), trained by C E Brittain
Laggan Minstrel , trained by R Hannon
Invader , trained by C E Brittain
Stateroom (USA), trained by J A R Toller
Millennium Force , trained by M R Channon
Sea Storm , trained by R F Fisher
J R Stevenson (USA), trained by M Wigham
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A typically frightenly open renewal for the Hunt Cup. It's one of those annoying races which punter hate as the field always split into two group, and you can easily pick the "winner" on one side of the course, only to see the overall winner swinging on the bridle on the other side!!!. The market suggests that Beauchamp Pilot [unbeaten in his last four starts, most recently when weaving his way though to catch Champion Lodge on the line at Haydock 26 days ago], will be hard to beat,
however this is far more open than that and I'd give Sea Star, One More Round, Scotty's Future, Heretic, Island Light, Putra Pekan, Calcutta, Kelburne, Danelor, Island Light, Surprise Encounter, and Smirk chances as well. Beauchamp Pilot hasn't done anything wrong and if he gets the run of the race (and is drawn on the right side) will probably go close, however I do like Sea Star here, and being drawn near the centre can virtually choose to go either side. He has looked useful when winning two of his three starts here, and I'll be hoping he can used his telling change of pace where it matters most. Island Light, whose jockey dropped his hands near the winning post, when just getting beaten last time out at Sandown represents the best eachway value in my view .
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Sea Star,
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Beauchamp Pilot
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Island Light, (e/w)
¦ 5° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:55 Ascot Stakes (H' cap) £46000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £26680, 29 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Twenty-nine runners try their luck over this
extreme stamina test. Riyadh, High And Mighty, Ranville, Greenhope, Distant Prospect, Billy Bonnie, Almaydan, Quitte La France, Xellance,
Establishment, and Saluem make most appeal to me. Riyadh who ran a cracker when
finishing third in the Chester Cup will enjoy this trip and should not be too far way here, however Billy Bonnie makes plenty of
aopeal. Noël Meade's gelding has won two of there starts this term, most recently when beating Discerning Air, (better known as a chaser) by 3½lengths at
Limerick 10 days ago, giving that rival 17lbs. He is guaranteed to stay this trip and appears to ba a solid eachway
alternative to the likely favourite
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Billy Bonnie
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Riyadh
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Quitte La France - a longshot who could go well if she stays
the trip
¦ 6° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 5:30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) £40000 added, 2yo only, 7f, penalty £23200, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Tomahawk, [a $2,500,000 foal, who could do no more than win as he liked at the Curragh on his debut] and Pinkerton [who put 10lengths between
himself and his rivals last time out at Windsor] look head and shoulders above their rivals in the finale. It does seem odd that Tomahawk has to
concede weight all round here, however he's the best long-term prospect of those that have run and I'd be prepared to take a chance
here with him. Celtic Sapphire, who ran promising on her debut at Redcar, and newcomers Gap
Year, and Major Speculation may prove to be the best eachway alternatives
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Tomahawk (USA),
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Pinkerton
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Celtic Sapphire, (e/w)
ROYAL ASCOT
Tuesday, June 18th 2002
¦ 1° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 2:30 Queen Anne Stakes {gr. 2} £135000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £78300, 12 runners.
1 Best Of The Bests 601/2kg
2 Swallow Flight 591/2kg
3 Atavus 58kg
4 Frenchmans Bay 58kg
5 Nayyir 58kg
6 No Excuse Needed 58kg
7 Priors Lodge 58kg
8 Tillerman 58kg
9 Tough Speed 58kg
10 Umistim 58kg
11 Vicious Knight 58kg
12 Century City 531/2kg
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> An interesting and varied opening day. The meeting opens with three well-supported favourites, who are almost certain to figure at the business end of their races. Nayyir, the subject of a monumental punt for the Royal Hunt Cup sidesteps that handicap for this Group 2 prize. On the basis of his smooth success in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom on Derby day it is understandable how he was likely to figure strongly here, however, there is a huge void between the Royal Hunt Cup and winning this prize and whilst there is no reason to immediately dismiss him, there are plenty of reasons for caution. The race is certain to suit him as it is almost guaranteed that Atavus (interesting if he can return to his Group form of last season) and Best Of The Best, who made all to beat Poussin at Longchamp will set out to make this a true test of stamina. Nayyir may not find passing these two as simple a task as he had at Epsom, never mind the likes of Swallow Flight, Frenchman's Bay, No Excuse Needed and Tough Speed, all of whom have exceptional finishing pace at the business end of a race. Frenchman's Bay is the most interesting of these. He has confirmed himself to be a decent miler returning to the racetrack having injured himself when finishing 3rd in last year's 2000 Guineas to Golan. He won with consummate ease on his return to the racecourse at Kempton before stepping up in class to land the Prix Du Palais-Royal a fortnight ago. Personally, both he and Best Of The Best have the best credentials going into the race, and if I were to have a wager on this, I would be inclined to side with one of them. Frenchman's Bay just gets the
nod. Possibly and even more interesting each-way alternative is (especially with the ground continuing to dry rapidly) Tillerman who ran creditably in most of the major sprints last season. There was plenty to like about the way he cruised home over 7 furlongs on his reappearance at Leicester and it would not surprise me if he went very close.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Frenchman's Bay
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Tillerman (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Best Of The Best
¦ 2° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:05 King's Stand Stakes {gr. 2} £135000 added, 3yo plus, 5f, penalty £78300, 15 runners.
1 Bahamian Pirate 58kg
2 Continent 58kg
3 Indian Prince 58kg
4 Indian Spark 58kg
5 Kyllachy 58kg
6 Monkston Point 58kg
7 Pomfret Lad 58kg
8 Smokin Beau 58kg
9 The Trader* 58kg
10 Anna Elise 561/2kg
11 Jessica's Dream 561/2kg
12 Misty Eyed 561/2kg
13 Olivia Grace 561/2kg
14 Vita Spericolata 561/2kg
15 Dominica 54kg
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>I would be amazed if punters will for the 4th time this season fail to side with Kyllachy in this Group 2 event. I have always had a very strong opinion of him and whilst I can understand why punters did not side with him on his seasonal reappearance and subsequent win at Newmarket, however I was astonished that he was allowed to markedly drift in the Temple Stakes at Sandown last time out, seemingly because he was drawn in the outside berth. Every now and again, Stats can hit the unwary punter right between the eyes - and boy did they on this occasion, because Kyllachy could not have been more impressive if he tried, quickening up impressively to slam Vision Of Light by 4 lengths. He is almost certainly the best 5 furlong sprinter on these shores, and definitely one of the best in Europe. He is a worthy favourite and will take plenty of beating...I am not going to oppose him - I can't having supported him so strongly this year. However, he is a hold-up horse that will need everything to go his way, therefore course and distance winners Jessica's Dream, Smokin Beau and Continent (another horse that needs things to go his way) offer something in the way of each-way alternatives.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Kyllachy
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Jessica's Dream
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Smokin Beau (e/w)
¦ 3° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 3:45 St James's Palace Stakes {gr. 1} (Colts) £290000 added, 3yo only colts, 1m, penalty £168200, 9 runners.
1 Aramram 57kg
2 Bowman 57kg
3 Camp Commander 57kg
4 Dupont 57kg
5 King Of Happiness 57kg
6 Landseer 57kg
7 Rock Of Gibraltar 57kg
8 Sahara Desert 57kg
9 Where Or When 57kg
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Should the favourites win the 1st two in the card, I dread to think what price Rock Of Gibraltar will go off here. I am loathed to suggest a horse likely to be too short for the small investor, even though his credentials are difficult to question. There are very few people likely to question the form of the 2000 Guineas, especially after Hawkwing's excellent effort in the Derby and how can you possibly crab his performance in the Irish 2000 Guineas - without doubt the most ridiculously easily won classic I have ever seen. In all likelihood Rock Of Gibraltar probably will win, however, weighing up our form with foreign form is not straightforward and I for one can't help but think that there is a possibility that the foreign form here is being underestimated. I think if this is strongly run from flag fall, it might suit Landseer (Rock of Gibraltar's stablemate who won the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp by a length from Bowman, who stayed on strongly up the final straight eventually finishing only 2 lengths behind Landseer) or possibly Dupont. Having watched his wins in the Italian and German guineas, I am convinced that his form is a lot stronger than many "experts" will advise you it is today. A word too for King of Happiness, who flopped in our guineas but is almost certainly a better animal than that beaten by Rock of Gibraltar on that day. The form suggests that Rock Of Gibraltar should prevail and if that is all you're interested in I would strongly advise that he is the bet, however, finding something to oppose him with appeals more to me and praying that something makes this a strongly run affair, I would be inclined to have a little bit each way on either Dupont or Bowman. Bowman is just preferred
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Bowman (e/w)
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Dupont (another great each-way bet in my opinion)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Rock Of Gibraltar (the likeliest winner on form)
¦ 4° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:20 Coventry Stakes {gr. 3} £60000 added, 2yo only, 6f, penalty £34800, 16 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>¦:¬> Spartacus and Statue of Liberty, the winners respectively of their only races thus far appear to give Aidan O'Brien a particularly strong hand in this Group 3 event, however, they are likely to face stern opposition from dual-winner Tizzy May (a winner of a conditions event at Windsor last time out), Western Fling (who is certain to improve having won despite running green at Goodwood on his debut), Tacitus (a very easy winner of a Goodwood maiden 11 days ago) , Raw Beacon (who made all to win at York last time out), Pakhoes (who stayed on strongly to win at the Curragh last time out), Doncaster winner Surbiton and Sir Edwin Landseer (who stepped up on his solid debut effort to win nicely at Newbury 20 days ago). I was most impressed with Tacitus and I'm certain he'll go close, however, there appears to be some positive vibes coming for Spartacus and he is just preferred. I wouldn't be surprised if either Sir Edwin Landseer or Surbiton ran well at big odds - the last named is put up as our each-way alternative.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Spartacus
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Tacitus
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Surbiton (e/w)
¦ 5° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 4:55 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes (H' cap) £55000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 4f, penalty £31900, 20 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. Jabaar, Holy Orders, Averted View, Demi Beau, Compton Commander, Dawari, Jokesmith, Solo Flight, Takamaka Bay, Red Carnation, Night Sight, Anikitos and Thundering Surf all have chances in the fifth race on the card. There is plenty of pace guaranteed here and it might pay to side with something likely to be finishing at the end of this race. The two that make most appeal are Jabaar (laid out for this having won a 28-runner handicap at Newmarket 6 weeks ago) and Solo Flight who is memory serves me right, started favourite for this race but met trouble in running. He didn't run too badly last time out when staying on to finish 2nd to Salem Toto at Epsom on Derby day. The progressive Jabaar is just preferred. The each way value in this could be any of Dawari, Red Carnation and Takamaka Bay. All of these are better than they've shown this season, however via process of elimination, it is difficult to support Takamaka Bay after disappointing on his reappearance in Derby day - similarly Dawari did not seem to want to know at all on his reappearance at Windsor a month ago. Presumably the visor which he runs in today has sweetened him up a bit but possibly not enough for me to suggest you support him with any great confidence. Red Carnation is a good mare on here day and if she gets some luck in running could well finish in the frame at a nice price.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Jabaar
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Solo Flight
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Red Carnation (e/w)
¦ 6° ROYAL ASCOT ¦ ¬> 5:30 Balmoral H' cap £50000 added, 3yo only, 5f, penalty £29000, 28 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>: The last is an incredibly hard call. I can make cases for Golden Bounty, Parisian Elegance, Agnetha, Good Girl, Waterside, Mubaah, Silken Sash, Hufflepuff, Mariinsky, Izmail, Mitsuki and Fire Up The Band. I have no strong view on this race, however Mubaah (unlucky in running behind Silver Band at Newbury) appears to have the best chance and is a hopeful selection. Agnetha (who ran well behind Jessica's Dream in a Group 3 event 16 days ago) is my best each-way shot.
¦ 1er CHOICE ¦:¬>Mubaah
¦ 2nd Choice ¦:¬>Agnetha (GER) (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice ¦:¬>Parisian Elegance
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