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Analysis
& Selections by
"a
rØøk"
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at
eachway odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown
before each race's analysis.
"FESTIVAL OF
BRITISH RACING" at ASCOT
Sunday, September 28
¦¨¨¨¨"First¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.00 Tommy's (The Baby Charity) Cumberland Lodge Stakes (A) (Group 3) 17 entries 1Mile~4f Penalty £29000 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"a rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--The Whistling Teal,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--High Accolade,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Gamut,
¦¨¨¨¨"Second¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.35 Southern Electric Nursery Handicap (B) 34 entries 7f Penalty £11107 2-Year-Olds only
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¦¨¨"a rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Mandobi,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Hatch,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Eezaa Geezer, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨"Third¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.10 Riggs Bank Rated Stakes (B) [Handicap] 38 entries 5f Penalty £12452.60 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"a rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Hidden Dragon,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Speed Cop,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Talbot Avenue,
¦¨¨¨¨"Fourth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.45 Mail On Sunday/tote Mile Final (Handicap) (B) 27 entries 1Mile~ Penalty £29000 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"a rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- J R Stevenson,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Ettrick Water,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--True Night,
¦¨¨¨¨"Fifth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.20 Seabiscuit Stakes (Showcase Handicap) (B) 29 entries 1Mile~4f Penalty £34800 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"a rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Jagger,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Distinction,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Wunderwood, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨"Sixth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.55 Windsor Forest Stakes (A) (Listed Race) 20 entries 2Miles~45yds Penalty £18560 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"a rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Shabernak,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Supremacy,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Olaso (GER),
"FESTIVAL OF BRITISH RACING" at ASCOT
Saturday, September 27.
¦¨¨¨¨"First¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.00 Hackney Empire Royal Lodge Stakes 20runners 1Mile~ Penalty £58,000 2-Year-Olds only colts and geldings
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- An open-looking renewal of the Royal Lodge Stakes opens day two of the meeting. Aidan O'Brien's Moscow Ballet will probably go off as favourite after his success at Tipperary last month. However, he is likely to meet stiff opposition in the shape of
Almuraad, Rule Of Law, Leicester Square and Snowridge. The last-named made an
encouraging debut when quickening past the previously impressive winner Iqte Saab
on his debut at Kempton, eventually winning by 3½ lengths. He looked as though there should be significant improvement to come and is probably the most likely winner. Almuraad is another who should have come on from his first-time-out success at Leicester and could represent some value odds.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Snowridge
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Almuraad
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Moscow Ballet
¦¨¨¨¨"Second¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.35 Meon Valley Stud Fillies` Mile - [gr. 1] - 13runners 1Mile~ Penalty £116,000 2-Year-Olds only fillies
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- The first Group 1 race of the meeting appears to be (on paper anyway) a straight fight between Aidan O'Brien's Necklace (going for her 2nd Group 1 of the season after winning at The Curragh last month) and
Punctilious (so far unbeaten, who beat the colts on disadvantageous terms last time out at Salisbury). There probably isn't much to choose between these two, however I have been particularly impressed with
Punctilious and she gets the vote here. Those looking for each-way value have plenty of options here as Red Bloom,
Ithaca, River Bell, Sundrop, Donna Vita and Tarot Card all can be entertained in this regard. I'm interested by David
Loder`s runner Sundrop who is bred to want a trip and will be seen to better effect next season. She should improve significantly on what she showed when winning at Lingfield on her debut, and might just slip into the frame at a nice price.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Punctilious
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Necklace
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Sundrop (JPN), (e/w)
¦¨¨¨¨"Third¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.05 Tote Trifecta Stakes (H`cap.) 49runners 7f Penalty £40600 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- An impossible race for punters comes next as thirty runners will be hurtling down the course. I've become a little bit confused by reference to the draw which seemed to be a little misleading at the Royal Meeting where many of the big races were won by horses drawn high (20 +) and yesterday's sales race again appeared to confirm that bias. If that trend was reflected again here, horses like Fremen, Lafi, Little
Good Bay, Camp Commander and Ile Michel would appear to have a distinct advantage. Sir Michael
Stoute`s improving three-year-old Fremen appears to have been laid out for this race and will almost certainly get the pace he requires on the far side courtesy of
Naahy. However, I do believe Lafi may be a little more battle-hardened and the form of his last time win out at Sandown isn't working out too badly. He is the sporting selection. Those looking for each-way value could do a lot worse than last-week's Ayr Gold Cup winner Quito who should run his race despite a potential poor draw and Ile Michelle, claimed by Martin Pipe last time out and
whose' form with Muchea is starting to look particularly useful.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Lafi
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Fremen (USA)
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Ile Michel (e/w)
¦¨¨4^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Quito
¦¨¨¨¨"Fourth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.40 Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Diadem Stakes 28runners 6f Penalty £58,000 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Airwave is almost certain to be popular here as she
definitely has the strongest lines of form. However, she is penalised for her Group 1 successes last season and is probably worth taking on with course and distance winner Ratio who should get the strong early pace he requires courtesy of
Lochridge. Last year's winner Crystal Castle or the Tatling might represent the best each-way value.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Ratio
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Airwave
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- The Tatling (e/w)
¦¨¨¨¨"Fifth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.20 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES - [gr. 1] - (Sponsored By Netjets) 17runners 1Mile~ Penalty £188,500 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- The makeup of this field is still unclear because of the
prevailing fast ground, however were they all to line up, the likeliest winners in my view would be Dubai Destination, Falbrav or Russian
Rhythm. This is the first time that Russian Rhythm has taken on the colts and despite how impressive she has previously been, the fact still remains on the evidence of form so far that she will probably need to improve again here if Falbrav and Dubai Destination are 'on song'. I am a huge Falbrav fan and have raved about him whilst he was winning Group 1 races in Italy, however this is a unique test for him and although I am sure he will like the likely strong pace here, I'm not as convinced as some that last season's Japan Cup winner will be as effective over a mile. I suspect that if he is on form, Dubai Destination is the one to be on particularly if he returns to the form shown when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal Meeting.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Dubai Destination
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Falbrav
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Russian Rhythm (USA)
¦¨¨¨¨"Sixth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.55 Kotex Rosemary Rated Stakes
(H`cap.) 23runners 1Mile~ Penalty £18,560 3-Year-Olds plus fillies
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- James Fanshawe`s filly Ice Palace appears to still be on the upgrade. A bit of improvement on the form shown when winning at Kempton should be good enough to land this listed race.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Ice Palace
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Tadris
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Dicharachera (e/w)
¦¨¨¨¨"Seventh¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 5.30 Caplan Gordon Carter Stakes
(H`cap.) 15runners 2Miles~45yds Penalty £11,310 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Mark Johnston has an excellent record at this track and trip and I consider his allowing The Persuader to run here as significant. He is just preferred to John Dunlop's Almutasader and Misternando.
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- The Persuader
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Almutasader
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Misternando
"FESTIVAL OF BRITISH RACING" at ASCOT
Friday, September 26.
¦¨¨¨¨"First¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.00 Bollinger Champagne Challenge Series Final Handicap (Gentleman Amateur Riders) (In Association With The Daily Telegraph) 33 entries 1Mile~4f Penalty £5629 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Montmartre,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Ellway Heights,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Diamonds Will Do, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨"Second¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.35 European Breeders Fund, [E.B.F.] Harvest Stakes 23entries 1Mile~4f Penalty £18560 3-Year-Olds plus fillies
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Itnab,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Floreeda,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Surval, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨"Third¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.10 Watership Down Stud Sales 47entries 6f 110yds Penalty £125000 2-Year-Olds only fillies
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Imshy,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Esteemed Lady, [e/w]
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Nyramba,
¦¨¨¨¨"Fourth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.45 Sodexho Stakes [Handicap] 34entries 6f Penalty £17400 3-Year-Olds only
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--A Very Good Year,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Danehill Stroller,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Royal Beacon, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨"Fifth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.20 European Breeders Fund, [E.B.F.] Classified Stakes 18entries 1Mile~2f Penalty £13154.40 3-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Regal Agenda,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Counsel's Opinion,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Tizzy May (FR )
¦¨¨¨¨"Sixth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.55 Thoroughbred Breeders Association Handicap 39entries 1Mile~ Penalty £5707 3-Year-Olds only
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¦¨¨"the rØøk"¨¨¦¨¨¨»--
¦¨¨1^ PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Flowerdrum,
¦¨¨2^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Lilli Marlane,
¦¨¨3^ place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»--Mademoiselle Jones,
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