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Analysis & Selections by t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the
race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners; [¹ NØ.1 CHOICE], as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; [²E/W
ALTERNATIVE] . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
1000 Guineas Day
Sunday 5th May 2002
2:00 Curtis Medical Rated Stakes (H' cap) £30000 added, 4yo plus, 6f, penalty £17400, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Of the 12 runners declared for the opener on 1000 Guineas day, Seven No Trumps (who won on the opening day of the new season at Doncaster), Ellens Academy (who finished fifth on his reappearance behind
Kyllachy 16 days ago), Border Subject (who made all to win at the beginning of this week at Windsor), Rule Breaker (who won an apprentice race at Windsor 13 days ago) and
Ellens Lad (who finished behind Kyllachy and Ellens Academy at Newbury) are my ideas of the likely winners. Ellens Academy just gets the vote.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Ellens Academy
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Grey Eminence - A useful 2-year-old who has lost his way since. Could go well returning to somewhere near his best.
2:30 The Mail On Sunday/Tote Mile (H' cap) (Q'fier) £20000 added, 3yo only, 1m, penalty £14352, 24 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Another difficult conundrum for punters to solve. Perfect Storm, Amour Sans Fin, Judge Davidson, Zandicular, Far Lane, Celtic Ballet,
Ettrick Water, Common Fault, Plymsole and Bailieborough all appear to have chances on the book. The market currently appears to favour the chances of the Barry Hills trained Far Lane (he won a maiden at the Lincoln meeting) and Common Fault (who won impressively 17 days ago). Whilst I won't be surprised if these two finish in the top six, I just prefer Judge Davidson who won a little race at Catterick last year in the manner of a horse who will be much better at 3. Zandicular who ran well last time out last year behind Century City is next best.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Judge Davidson
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Zandicular
3:05 R. L. Davison Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) £30000 added, 3yo only fillies, 1m 2f, penalty £18564, 5 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A disappointing turnout though all five should develop into nice staying 3-year-olds. Difficult to oppose Esloob here (a: Her form behind Gossamer last term is Rock Solid, more importantly: b) she receives a handy 7lb allowance from main danger Half Glance who should come on for her first run behind
Misterah at Newbury last month). That may prove decisive on the final run to the line.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Esloob
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
3:45 1000 GUINEAS Stakes {Gr.1} (Fillies) £300000 added, 3yo only fillies, 1m, penalty £174000, 18 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>This was billed as a clash between the best
juvenile fillies of last year, Queens Logic and Gossamer, however, fate has already dealt Queens Logic's connections a cruel blow with her unfortunate injury sustained yesterday. It is difficult to try and be objective when despite all you hear, the chances of Queens Logic winning will have receded significantly as even if they managed to clear the infection that caused the lameness, there must be doubts about how she will race on that "injury" when the gun is put to her head. I was going to elaborate on why I wasn't impressed with her reappearance at Newbury. I will be very surprised if she comes over all of this adversity and still takes this prize (or rather she'll need to be a truly exceptional filly to overcome those odds). I have been big Gossamer fan since her debut and we have selected her on all her starts thus far. The fact that connections haven't raced her this season does not bother me and it will take a real "goodun" to beat her. If lumping on at sure odds is your thing, then she has to be the bet, however, as with the 2000 Guineas yesterday, I am looking to find a little bit more in the way of value. Our delayed publication on horses to follow during the flat season "They're Off" includes Sulk who improved steadily throughout last season culminating in a win in the Prix Marcel Boussac at
Longchamp. She may want a longer trip to be seen at her best, however, she boasts Group 1 form and there aren't many in this lineup than can do that. If you're looking for a fun bet, you could do a lot worse than her at current odds. I wouldn't be surprised if Quarter Moon does best of the Ballydoyle team.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Sulk (e/w)
¦ 2nd CHOICE² ¦:¬>Gossamer
¦ 3rd CHOICE² ¦:¬>Quarter Moon
4:20 May Classified Stakes £16000 added, 3yo only, 7f, penalty £10790, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Millenium Dragon who showed plenty of promise on his reappearance at Newbury when finishing a close third to Bit Of Luck last month and Rajab (3rd here over 6 furlongs on his
reappearance) look the likeliest winners of the 5th. Millenium Dragon ran as though not quite seeing out a mile on his reappearance. Hopefully he can put matters right here. Kepler who showed up well behind Castle
Gandolfo at Lingfield is the each-way alternative.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Millenium Dragon
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Kepler
4:50 March H' cap £15000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f, penalty £9442.40, 18 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>First Ballot heads the weights for the 6th and will no doubt set out to make all here. If allowed to get into a rhythm, David
Ellsworth's 6-year-old can be a difficult horse to pass. There is a possibility though that he may be setting the race up for the finishers ( Big Moment,
Marrakech, Thundering Surf and Tiyoun). Tiyoun who looked unlucky in running in his reappearance at Ripon is just preferred to
Marrakech and Damask Rose (who interestingly has been kept in training by the
Cumani stable and will probably go on to better things as the season progresses).
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Tiyoun
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Damask Rose
5:20 Hastings Maiden Stakes £10000 added, 3yo only, 1m, penalty £7020, 19 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Very little public evidence to go on - Definitely a race where the market could speak volumes. Shakran does at least boast some public form having finished third on his only appearance thus far, however, having raced nearly 290 days ago, quite what advantage he possesses is open to conjecture. He, Akshar, Izdiham, On Edge, Orapa and Silvaline are the runners who you need to follow during market exchanges. On Edge, who is still in the Derby is a tentative final selection.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>On Edge
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Silvaline
2000 Guineas Day
Saturday 4th May 2002
2:05 Countrywide Steel & Tubes Rated Stakes (H' cap) £20000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 2f, penalty £12174.20, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Wood Dalling, Kuster, Kilkenny Castle, Pinchincha, Kelburne, and Broadway Score all have chances in the opener. Broadway Score, who won over 1m3f at Haydock won in the manner of an improved individual and could be difficult to pass, however, I suspect that Wood Dalling and Kuster may have a little more class / acceleration where it matters most. Kuster shaped well on his reappearance behind Imperial Dancer at Kempton and should go close, however, I have to stay loyal to Wood Dalling who I selected to win the Spring Cup at Newbury on his reappearance. Fate transpired to go against him that day (he was caught flat-footed after a slow early pace). Hopefully over this slightly longer trip he can atone for that unfortunate experience.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Wood Dalling
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Broadway Score
2:40 Victor Chandler Palace House Stakes {Gr.3} £40000 added, 3yo plus, 5f, penalty £23200, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Last year's winner Rushcutter Bay takes on Bahamian Pirate, Continent, Smokin Beau, Kyllachy, Mariinsky and The Trader in a competitive (but disappointing) renewal of this Grade 3 sprint. I am certain that Rushcutter Bay who has won for the last 2 years here on his reappearance will attract plenty of support, however, I wouldn't be surprised if Smokin Beau (he beat Rudy's Pet easily at Nottingham last month) and Kyllachy (who won on his reappearance at Newbury) didn't run him out of it close home. Kyllachy, who I thought would develop into a Group grade sprinter last year is just preferred.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Kyllachy
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Mariinsky
3:15 ladbrokes.com H' cap £40000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £23200, 30 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Quite impossible (this race has clearly been moved forward to scupper Scoop 6 aspirations - I don't envy anybody who wants to do all combinations with this race in the middle of it). For what it's worth, Grey Cossack, Rudik, Lisianski, Surprised, Tayif, Abbajabba and Bandana make most appeal (if that's possible). The last-named (who ran a nice race when finishing third behind the useful
Mitcham on her reappearance at Kempton) gets the nod.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Bandana
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Time To Remember
3:45 2000 GUINEAS Stakes {Gr.1} £300000 added, 3yo only colts and fillies, 1m, penalty £174000, 22 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Who will take the first classic of the season? Will it be the unbeaten King Of Happiness (who cruised home in the Craven Stakes here last month)...or will Aidan O'Brien take this with the heavily-supported Hawk Wing (who won three from four last season) or his stable mate Rock Of Gibraltar (owned by Sir Alex Ferguson) . Maybe Aramram will have progressed again from his win at Thirsk or Tendulkar; another inmate from the Ballydoyle stable who should be a far better 3-year-old. He showed enough at two to warrant consideration here. What about the French pair Massalani or
Zipping who ran in the Prix Djebbel at Maison-Lafitte ...Will there be a real surprise? The highly promising Coshocton (trained my Michael Jarvis): Love Regardless or Rapscallion. Hawk Wing has done very little wrong and has always looked a more likely winner of this race in my view than the untested King Of Happiness, however, I was very impressed with Massalani in the Prix Djebbel and at current odds he seems worth taking on the front two with. Coshocton could be best of the long shots.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Massalani e/w
¦ alternative² ¦:¬>Hawk Wing
¦ Long Shot ¦:¬>Coshocton
4:30 Ruinart Champagne Conditions Stakes £10000 added, 3yo only, 1m 4f, penalty £6069, 5 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Difficult race to evaluate as Long Goodbye's form is in Italy, Dusky Warbler is a winner but hasn't run since finishing 2nd here in the Zetland stakes, Murray , the third winner in the line up stayed on well to beat Chinook at Doncaster but may have been best served by the conditions. Finally , the well-bred pair Tioman and, Al Moulatham both make their racecourse debut here. These last two receive 6lbs from their rivals and whilst I like the chances of Murray, if connections genuinely believed he was decent they wouldn't have gelded him. Al Moulatham, who is entered in the Derby is the selection
... rather by default.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Al Moulatham
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
5:05 European Metal Recycling Maiden Stakes £10000 added, 2yo only, 5f, penalty £6695, 6 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Another race with little public form to go on. Iron Lad, the only one with racecourse experience hasn't done enough here to warrant the selection and Checkit (a son of Mukaddamah) is preferred to Tizzy May (a son of High Honour)
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Checkit
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
5:35 attheraces.co.uk Conditions Stakes £16000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 2f, penalty £9651.20, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Chianti just who (was just touched off by Border Arrow at Kempton) and Desert Deer (the winner of his last 3 starts) look best of those declared in the finale. Desert Deer who made all to win at Kempton last time out last season looks like a horse that should progress into Group company this year. Although he's not favoured by the weights, he gets the nod. German raider Blue Baloo who took a Group 3 event last time could be an interesting each-way alternative.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Desert Deer
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Blue Baloo
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