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Analysis & Selections by .t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the
race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners; [¹ NØ.1 CHOICE], as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; [²E/W
ALTERNATIVE] . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
YORK
Thursday 16th May
2:15 Langleys Solicitors Rated Stakes Showcase H' cap £25000 added, 4yo plus, 6f, penalty £15877.49, 13 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Trace Clip, Brevity, Ellens Academy, Abbajabba, Chookie Heiton and Banjo Bay will probably head the market in the opener on the final day of the Dante meeting. The strongest piece of collateral evidence appears to be Trace Clip's excellent 2nd to
Kyllachy at Newbury 27 days ago. He is off a nice weight here and in this slightly less competitive affair (in terms of ratings) he seems to be the most logical selection. Each-way punting is slightly more difficult particularly as the likes of Ellens Academy and Proud Native have historical form that would see them go close here. I will though stay loyal to Great
Eminence who was our each-way option on his seasonal appearance at the Guineas meeting where he was a good 3rd. That was his 1st effort for a while so I'd be hoping that this doesn't come too soon.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Trace Clip
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Great Éminence
2:45 Duke of York Stakes (Group 3) £60000 added, 3yo plus, 6f, penalty £34800, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Reel Buddy, Misraah, Invincible Spirit, Bahamian Pirate, Continent, Mugharreb, Tedburrow and Misty Eyed all warrant consideration in an interesting renewal of this Group 3 sprint. The hitherto unbeaten (this season) Real Buddy is likely to go off favourite and goes for a 4-timer here having won cosily at Haydock last time over 7 furlongs. He should go well, however I do like he claims of Invincible Spirit (who finished
behind Real Buddy at Newmarket on his reappearance) and Misraah (useful in this grade who has not raced though for 270-odd days). Invincible Spirit (who gave Real Buddy 6lbs that day) stayed on strongly at the finish. If the reports that suggest he needed that effort prove to be correct, he should take a lot of beating today - thus he is my selection. Continent (who in my view is best served by
exaggerated waiting tactics) is the each-way alternative.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Invincible Spirit
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Continent
3:20 Merewood Homes Yorkshire Cup (Group 2) £135000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 5f 194yds, penalty £78300, 7 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A race of if, buts and maybes...Persian Punch should prove popular, however, has been found wanting on several
occasions at this track, at this trip...Akbar comes here having been turned over when odds-on by stablemate Darasim in a conditions event at Ripon...Zindabad ran well but was ultimately beaten by Marienbard in the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) at Newmarket...Boreas was soundly beaten by
Zindabad at Newbury...Hannibal Lad was well beaten by St Expedite at Chester last week....Jardine's Lookout has solid form at the course and in this grade but hasn't run for 245 days. Whilst it's difficult to evaluate Sydenham's victory over 10f at Nad Al
Sheba two months ago, my advice is to treat this as a one-off and discard it for form purposes. I would pass over Persian Punch and instead, take a chance with Sydenham, partly because of the record of Godolphin in this race but mainly because he has always given the impression that he would appreciate going over a distance of ground. Fingers are firmly crossed that this is a wise course of action.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
3:50 Michael Seely Memorial Glasgow Stakes (Listed Race) £30000 added, 3yo only colts and geldings, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £21607.50, 3 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A shame about the poor turnout here. As a result, this is almost certainly inconclusive in terms of the Derby. That said, L'Oiseau D'Argent gives every impression of being a class act. I have been keen on this one for a while having
short-listed him for our "They're Off" feature before he'd run (hopefully this will be hot off the press shortly). We selected him on his debut at Kempton and were quite pleased that the market felt he was best left alone for another day. The odds of 11/2 soon looked over-generous as he pulled double turning for home and there was plenty to like about the way he strode clear of his field eventually winning by 7 lengths. This is slightly harder (and over a slightly longer distance) which entitles
Imtiyaz and Nysaean to consideration, however, I believe that he will ultimately prove to be too good for them.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>L'Oiseau D'Argent (USA)
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
4:20 Hamlet Miniatures Stakes (H' cap) £10000 added, 3yo only, 7f 202yds, penalty £7605, 20 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Ghannam, Far Lane, Cassirer, Atlantic Quest, Moten Swing and Tough Love all have chances in an open handicap. Whilst I don't think that Atlantic Quest and Far Lane (who finished 1st and 2nd on their previous meeting in a similar event at the Guineas meeting) and
Cassirer (who should come on for his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket 13 days ago) will be too far away. I prefer the claims of top-weight Ghannam who won a Thirsk maiden with a bit in hand. Tough Love (who last time out won a Beverley Handicap) and
Handful (who lost his maiden tag by virtue of a success at Wolverhampton in April) look to be the best each-way options.
Handful would be my "preferred"
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Ghannam
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Handful
4:50 TSL Telecoms Services To Racing Stakes (Rated Stakes) H' cap £15250 added, 4yo plus, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £9532.29, 8 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>I have a good feeling about the claims of my selection in the opener today...I feel the same (if not more strongly) about the chances of Stretton here. Anyone who saw the ease by which he cut down Royal Cavalier at Chester will know how well he appears to be treated at present in handicaps...this is a harder assignment but I'd be hopeful of him passing this test with flying colours.
Kelburne (who was an easy winner at Newmarket) looks his main danger.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Stretton
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Kelburne
YORK
Wednesday 15th May
1:55 Convergent Systems Avaya Stakes (H' cap) £25000 added, 3yo plus, 5f, penalty £18362.50, 20 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A typical York handicap opens day two of the Dante Meeting. Smart Predator, (a decent sprinter last term, who should have come on fro his first effort behind Kyllachy at
Newbury), Boanerges (the winner of both starts this term, most recently at
Thirsk 25 days ago) Elvington Boy, (just touched off at the same venue 11 days ago) Bali Royal, (a multi
winning sprinter from last term, who is returning to something near her best) Night Flight, (a course and distance winner) James Stark and Atlantic Viking, head the market and are all entitled to close
inspection. I like Bali Royal, who ran a good race on her seasonal debut, behind
Boanerges at Thirsk winning the race on the stands' side rail decisively. She
didn't fire at Chester, however she didn't get the run of that race, and this
straight course may well be more to her liking. I'll be interested to see how The Tatling runs as well. He was a decent
"tool" in his youth and he should be drawn along by the likely strong
pace ... hopefully he can nick a place.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Bali Royal
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>The Tatling
2:25 Convergent Telecom Middleton Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) £30000 added, 4yo plus fillies, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £18270, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Premier Prize, (a good second to Tarfshi in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last
time out ) Jalousie, (last seen finishing sixth to in the Willmott Dixon Stakes (Group 3) at Ascot last October), Salim Toto, (who ran away with the Great Metropolitan Stakes last time out at Epsom) Miss Pitz, (a good handicapper on her day who is coming to hand - she
didn't run too badly at Chester last week), Pulau Pinang, (multi-winner on the
all-weather), and Red Carnation, (who looked good when winning a couple of races last term, but this looks harder) are the horses
likeliest to figure in the second. If Premier Prize is in the same sort of form as
she showed at Newmarket she should be too good here. Miss Pitz is the eachway alternative
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Premier Prize
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Miss Pitz
2:55 Convergent Dante Stakes (Group 2) £145000 added, 3yo only, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £84100, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Sir George Turner, Moon Ballad, Balakheri, Right Approach, Where Or When, Bollin Eric, and Hills of Gold look the
likeliest winners of the Dante Stakes. I'm not sure where these stand in terms of the Derby, however they are
progressive sorts. Sir George Turner, (with Mark Johnston's yard remaining in peak form) is almost
certain to go off favourite. He didn't do anything wrong behind Sohaib in the Dee Stakes ay
Chester last week, however I'm not sure that a race of this calibre one week later, plus the application of blinkers are ideal ... connections clearly think he is
still a bit of a baby and with that thought in mind he may be worth taking on ... but what with? .... Balakheri maybe? ... there will be few easier winners this term than this three-year-old was on his reappearance at Newmarket 27 days ago. He travelled like a "good-un" and picked up when it matters most. He clearly is
capable of holding his own in Group company and should go well... then again so
should stablemate Right Approach (as long as the rain stays away). he couldn't act on the
rain-softened ground at Sandown on his reappearance behind Simeon, but had previously looked a
decent prospect in winning at Newmarket and when failing to take his second start at Kempton (which many
onlookers feel he should have won). Many don't believe that he'll stay this trip (or the
Derby for that matter), however whilst his dam only won at a mile, She is a half-sister to 6f-1m2f winner Church Parade and to smart stayer Castle Rising, and is
distantly related to Highclere (dam of Height of Fashion)... it could be too
unwise to read too much into his Sandown effort. Hills of Gold, the least exposed of these is another to consider having won his only start at
Doncaster last September over a mile in the manner of an animal that will appreciate a step up ion trip this season. I wouldnt be in the least
bit surprised if the Stoute pair prove too much for Sir George Turner to handle, howevr I think Right Approach may still need this and I think Balakheri's the horse to be on today, although a good run from Right
Approach could offer out hope of a reversal if they met at Epsom. Hills of Gold, gets the eachway vote and
could be the most interesting in the long-term.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Balakheri
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬> Hills of Gold,
3:25 Pricewaterhousecoopers Hambleton Rated Stakes Showcase H' cap (Listed Race) £30000 added, 4yo plus, 7f 202yds, penalty £18635.40, 11 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>I cant really oppose Sea Star here. I've
selected him in both starts this term, and after "filling our wallets" at Newmarket on his
seasonal reappearance, he was an unlucky in running fourth in the Victoria Cup (Handicap) at Ascot at the
beginning of the month. He didn't get the run of the race, and was stopped twice in
making his challenge in the final quarter. The way the race was run, he couldn't have caught the winner, but would have been in the first three for certain and hopefully he'll appreciate this slightly less
competitive affair .. Surprise Encounter and Smirk look to be his chief threats.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Sea Star
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Calcutta
4:00 E B F Convergent Telecom Dealers Maiden Stakes £10000 added, 2yo only, 6f, penalty £7085, 10 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>With very little public evidence on show, the market may
be the best guide to the chances of Fellow Ship, Midnight Song, Royal Beacon, New Wish, Into The Breeze, Cala Eventually and Tacitus. Although Royal Beacon, and Fellow Ship have the
benefit of a run. I do like the pedigree of Richard Hannon' s first-string Tacitus, and he is a hopef ul selection
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Tacitus.
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Cala (FR)
4:35 Datel Stakes (H' cap) £10000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 5f 194yds, penalty £7182.50, 17 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Perestroika, Waverley Road, Bid For Fame, Establishment, Xellance, Positive Profile and Hugs Dancer look to have the best claims in the finale. I like Perestroika, here who ran
with great promise on his reappearance at Kempton over 1m6½f, where he just failed to Waverley Road. Waverley Road is 4lbs worse off here and looks like he'll be coming off worse of that battle, and I think Perestroika's main
danger may be Establishment, who ran well behind Solo Flight at Newmarket four
weeks ago. Sarangani who won easily at Beverley on his first start for Mick Easterby is still
relatively unexposed at this sort of trip and could be interesting at eachway odds
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Perestroika,
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Sarangani
YORK
Tuesday 14th May
1:55 Newton Investment Management Rated Stakes (H' cap) £25000 added, 3yo only, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £15935.49, 10 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>It'll be interesting to see what (if any) effect yesterday's rain has had here on the Knavesmire. It may pay to seek out early market support for Systematic, Light Scent, Don Fernando, Mr Sandancer, Diamond Lover and Castle River and Barman (the
likeliest winners in my view). Systematic, (going for a hat-trick after a smooth success at Leicester in April) is sure to give a good account of himself here, however, there may be value in Barman (e/w). He is better than the bare form shown last time out at Salisbury (when well beaten in a competitive handicap won by Bonecrusher). That race will throw up several winners over the months to come and he has a fair chance in this less competitive affair. Systematic and Don Fernando (who ran encouragingly behind Balakheri at Newmarket) look his main threats.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Barman (USA), (e/w)
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Don Fernando
2:25 williamhillcasino.com Stakes Showcase H' cap £35000 added, 3yo only, 6f 214yds, penalty £22750, 15 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Difficult to get away from the progressive Takes Tutu who did well to get up close home in a 0-100 handicap at Newmarket last time out. Zandicular (3rd to Take Tutu's stablemate Atlantic Quest at the same meeting), Nemo Fugat (awarded at conditions event at the same meeting), Serieux (a useful 2-year-old who should come on for his 1st effort behind Redback in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury) and Kool (an unlucky-in-running 9th on his seasonal
reappearance) all warrant close inspection, however, I fully expect Mark Johnston's runner to prove too good.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Takes Tutu (USA)
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Kool
2:55 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) £50000 added, 3yo only fillies, 1m 2f 85yds, penalty £29750, 5 runners
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>All eyes will be on Islington who many ante-post punters will hope justifies her position at the head of the Oaks market. She did no more than should have been expected, however, this is by far her hardest ask thus far and she faces stern opposition in the shape of Mayhill winner Half Glance (who ran creditably behind Esloob at Newmarket 9 days ago), Fraulein (who lost nothing in defeat behind Gossamer at Ascot in September) and Alexander Three D (who stayed on well to take the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket last November). In terms of the oaks, this looks like another useless trial with no guaranteed pace, however, the oaks is another day and if Islington warrants her position at the head of the Oaks ante-post market, I would expect her to win this...even if it isn't pretty.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Islington
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
3:25 Betfair.com Conditions Stakes £15250 added, 3yo only, 1m 5f 194yds, penalty £9430.75, 5 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Another difficult race to evaluate here as none of these are proven at this trip. That said, with only 5 runners there's no guarantee of an end-to-end gallop. Mr Dino justified favouritism when landing an ordinary Newmarket maiden 28 days ago. A few days later, Stage By Stage flopped behind Proven over 1m2f. Five days later Savannah Bay looked one-paced when swept
aside by Swing Wing at Epsom. Whilst I suspect Nicky Henderson began making favourable enquiries about the possibility of being handed the reins of the
scopey Gulf (who stayed on nicely to win a Salisbury maiden) . I think Gulf is by far the nicest of the runners in this lineup and may well ultimately have a future over jumps. I couldn't hand-on-heart say that he at the moment has all the necessary attributes to beat his rivals here...that said, I'd be prepared to take the chance.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Gulf
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>
4:00 Simon Storage Stakes (H' cap) £15000 added, 4yo plus, 1m 3f 195yds, penalty £10871.25, 16 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>A typical York handicap which should be run at a decent clip. It is difficult to get away from the claims of Solo Flight (who beat Bawsian 27 days ago), Royal Cavalier (2nd at Chester last week), Pretrail (2nd at Newmarket in a similar event 11 days ago) and bottom weight Night Sight (on a hat-trick after his win over 1m2f at Doncaster 8 days ago). Solo Flight's form nose-dived after a promising start last time, however, when on song he possesses a devastating turn of foot which would in my view see him prevail here if he gets the run of the race. "Each way thieves" may be interested in the chances of Inch Perfect and Wintertide (representing a trainer with a good record at the meeting), Mana D'Argent (a "perennial placer" in this type of event) and Hambleden who should come on for his 1st run of the season. Inch Perfect is just preferred in that sphere.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Solo Flight
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>Inch Perfect
4:35 Betfair.com 0870 90 80 121 EBF Novice Fillies' Stakes £10000 added, 2yo only fillies, 6f, penalty £7020, 12 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Tease (an encouraging 4th behind Wunders Dream at Newmarket on her debut 27 days ago) and Bo (who improved on her debut effort to finish a respectable 4th behind Rockets 'N Rollers at Ascot 13 days ago) look like the likeliest winners of the last. Tease is just preferred. Michael Jarvis's In A Silent Way (a daughter of Desert Prince) could be an interesting each-way alternative.
¦ 1è CHOICE ¹ ¦:¬>Tease
¦ e/w alternative² ¦:¬>In A Silent Way
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