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The
Feature Meeting
Analysis
& Selections by
".b.i.g."
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at
eachway odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown
before each race's analysis.
DERBY MEETING ~ Epsom Downs
Saturday, June 7.
¦¨¨¨¨¨"First¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 1.40 Vodafone Live! H `cap (C) 1mile~2f 18yds Penalty £43500 3-Year-Olds only 1st - £43,500, 2nd - £16,250, 3rd - £8,000, 4th - £3,500 17 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- Derby Day opens with this competitive looking seventeen runner handicap. Anani, Jazz Messenger, Chief Yeoman, Logsdail, Tiber, Foodbroker Founder, Barney McAll, New Wish, Todlea, Devant, and Langford, would appear to us to have chances of sorts. Anani, [who went into many notebooks after his maiden win at Ascot, ran well last time out at Goodwood] and Jazz
Messenger, [who made all when winning the Tote Credit Club Silver Bowl at Haydock last time out], should give good
accounts of themselves here, however I like Logsdail here, who has hinted on both occasions this season, that a step up in trip could suit,
[particularly as his dam is a half-sister to smart 12-14f filly Port Helene]. The handicapper has given his a chance here and it wouldnt surprise me if he
didn't prove good enough to land this prize. Todlea who stayed on strongly last time out, when winning at Goodwood looks to be the best eachway option here
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Logsdail
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Todlea, [e/w]
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Jazz Messenger,
¦¨¨¨¨¨"Second¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.10 Woodcote Stakes ~ Sponsored by Vodafone (A) (Listed Race) 6f Penalty £23200 2-Year-Olds only 1st - £23,200, 2nd - £8,625, 3rd - £4,225, 4th - £1,825 11 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- Eleven runners have been declared for this listed race over six furlongs, of whom Cop Hill Lad, Kings Point, Parkview Love, Cedarberg, Cape Fear, Marcus Eile, and Morse, are the
horses I'd entertain. Cop Hill Lad, and Parkview Love, renew rivalry having crossed swords
last time out at Pontefract. On that occasion Cop Hill Lad gave 2lbs and a 1½
length beating to Mark Johnston's runner. There probably wont be much to choose between these two, now that Cop Hill Lad must carry an extra 3lbs penalty here, however I'm not convinced that'll be enough to reverse placings here. He is plenty short enough here and Cedarberg, [eachway if you prefer] may be a better betting
proposition here. He made a most promising debut at the Curragh last month when chasing home the winner Wathab in what looks on paper anyway to have been a
decent maiden. He was the only danger from some way out and, whilst he wasn't able to match the winner for pace, he certainly suggested strongly that he should come on from this experience... He'll do for me.
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Cedarberg (UAE)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Cop Hill Lad,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Parkview Love,
¦¨¨¨¨¨"Third¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 2.40 Diomed Stakes ~ Sponsored by Vodafone (A) (Group 3) 1mile~114yds Penalty £58000 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £58,000, 2nd - £21,500, 3rd - £10,500, 4th - £4,500 11 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- The latest renewal of the Group Three Diomed stakes appears to be the most open I can
certainly remember... I wouldnt rule out the claims of Blatant, Battle Chant, King Of Happiness, Dupont, Smirk, Gateman, Common World, Excellento, or Reel Buddy here. A strong pace is assured, with Atavas almost
certain to make the running here and hopefully this plays into the hands of King of Happiness, not seen since seen a
distant view of Ipi Tombe in the Dubai Duty Free (Group 1) at Nad Al Sheba in March. Things
didn't go well for this formerly useful juvenile last term, however he has
certainly suggested that he could operate at this level, and in a race where nothing stands out, he would appear to be worth taking a
chance with here. Gateman, who ran well behind Walzerkoenigin in the Premio Emilio Turati (Group 2), last time out at San Siro, and the hitherto
unbeaten Excellento, are my ideas of the likeliest dangers.
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- King Of Happiness,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Gateman,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Excellento, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨¨"Fourth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 3.10 Vodafone 'Dash' Rated Stakes (A) (H `cap) (Listed Race) 5f Penalty £58000 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £58,000, 2nd - £21,940, 3rd - £10,940, 4th - £4,940 11 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- The usual frenetic five furlong dash, which preludes the Derby.
This is guaranteed to be quick with plenty of early pace here and I would certainly not rule out the chances of Bishops Court, Pic Up Sticks, Dubaian Gift, Repertory, Atlantic Viking, Rudi's Pet, Damalis, Hufflepuff, and Kathology. Bishops Court, is certain to attract support having won this race twice before, however he has found trouble in
running on more than once occasion here. If he gets a run he may well prevail, however I do like Dubaian Gift here, although he ran badly here off of a 12lnbs lower mark here in April. He has looked
particularly progressive when winning his last two starts, the most recent of which was when he defied a 8lbs rise in
the weights when just lasting home at Windsor three weeks ago. When the stable in a rich vein of form, he is worth taking a
chance with here. Course and distance winner Kathology, would be my idea of t a solid eachway bet here.
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Dubaian Gift,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Bishops Court,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Kathology, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨¨"Fifth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.00 DERBY STAKES ~ Sponsored by Vodafone (A) (Group 1) 1mile~4f 10yds Penalty £852600 3-Year-Olds only colts and fillies 1st - £852,600, 2nd - £323,090, 3rd - £161,390, 4th - £73,190 20 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- The latest running of the Derby looks to be a fascinating race on paper.. here's
our view on today's runners;
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ALAMSHAR: Has plenty going for him. Representing the Owner-Trainer-Jockey partnership that was
successful with Sinndar in 2000. Alamshar has done nothing wrong in four starts, only tasting defeat once when probably given too much to do in the
Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown on his reappearance. Didn't impress some onlookers with his hard-fought success over The Great Gatsby last time out at Leopardstown however he may be a horse that only does what is required. Home reports suggest he is tuned to the minute and appears to have plenty of stamina in his pedigree. A must for anyone's shortlist. |
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ALBERTO
GIACOMETTI: Excellent third behind Dalakhani and Superbe Celebre in the Prix Lupin at Longchamp, the form of which was franked in last weekend's French Derby. However, has a bit to find with Alamshar on
Ballysax Stakes form. By no means impossible. The booking of Christophe Soumillon has to be a positive. |
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BALLESTRINI: His claim to fame may be that he beat Alamshar in the
Ballysax Stakes however he was 'gifted' that race and appears to be held by Alberto Giacometti on their form in the Prix Lupin. |
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BRIAN
BORU: Aidan O'Brien's main Derby hope and mount of stable jockey Michael Kinane. Has been ante-post favourite for this race ever since a decisive victory in the Racing Post Trophy ant the end of last term An encouraging third behind Alamshar at Leopardstown however am I the only person who was concerned at how he hung into the rail up the final straight? It may have been due solely to not being 'match fit'. However on a course where maintaining balance is paramount, it may be unwise to wager heavily on him. That said, he does appear to have plenty
going for him and has to be considered. |
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DUNHILL
STAR: Has twice finished behind Magistretti this season and seemed to regress when third in the Dante Stakes at York. This is a far harder assignment and he is not guaranteed to stay. |
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DUTCH
GOLD: Has really blossomed this season after looking quite ordinary last term. He steadily progressed with each race this term, culminating with an all the way success last time in the Chester Vase. Connections are used to 'tilting at windmills', however occasionally they've managed to surprise. Not an obvious winner but
definitely a horse with a chance. |
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FRANKLINS
GARDENS: Unlike a lot of his rivals, we at least know that Franklins Gardens acts on the course having won Epsom's own Derby Trial in April. He subsequently outbattled Let Me Try Again in Lingfield's trial for this event and if he replicates that effort here, he would have sound claims of getting in the frame. |
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GRAIKOS: I'm not sure how keen Godolphin were to run this horse earlier in the week, however fortune may favour them from being brave enough to have a go. I suspect he would be readily overlooked if you took the bare form of the Dante Stakes at face value, however he looked in more need of the run that several of his rivals that day. More importantly, there appears to be enough juice in the ground for him to let himself down on. This gives him a chance here especially if he was to replicate his useful
juvenile French for of last season. Possibly overpriced |
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KRIS
KIN: Not certain to stay today's trip however there was plenty to like about the way he quickened to land the Dee Stakes at Chester on his seasonal reappearance. Sir Michael Stoute knows what it takes to win this race and the fact that they have stumped up £90,000 to supplement him has to be considered a positive. |
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LET ME TRY
AGAIN: It's nice to have a locally trained runner in this race though it was probably hard to believe that was possible in January when Let Me Try Again was beaten in a 10 furlong handicap on the All-Weather at Lingfield. He has gone from
strength to strength since and definitely has a chance after his fine effort in Lingfield's Derby trial when failing by only half a length to Franklins Gardens. More is needed here. |
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LUNDY'S
LANE: An excellent third behind Osorio in the Derby Italiano, however he'll need to improve again to win this. |
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MAGISTRETTI: Much improved this season. Has done everything asked of him this term
in winning both starts at Newmarket and more recently when landing
the Dante Stakes and could run a big race if he stays... not sure he
will. |
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NORSE
DANCER: Connections have taken the bold bid to supplement him after his excellent third in the 2000 Guineas and on breeding certainly should appreciate a step-up in trip. However he is very much unknown quantity at this trip and may be one to swerve if the rain
continues to fall. |
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PRINCE
NUREYEV: Apparently has it all to do having won a handicap off of a weight of 93 lat time out at Newbury, however Rod Millman maintains
he is the best horse he's ever trained so ultimately may even been
better than that... He'll need to be. |
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REFUSE TO
BEND: Has everything going for him here, being unbeaten in four starts at the time of writing and arguably possesses the strongest
piece of form having landed the 2000 Guineas last time out at Newmarket. His
pedigree suggests he should stay and it should take a good horse to beat him. Not beyond the realms of possibility. |
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SHIELD: Not seen out since winning Sandown's Classic Trial in April, however he won that event in the manner of an improving colt. Connections have laid him out for this race and I'd expect a bold bid, however I'm not sure he's good enough. |
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STRENGTH 'N
HONOUR: Not disgraced when third to Shield at Sandown and Derby trip holds no fears however he'll need to improve to win this. |
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SUMMERLAND: John Gosden's yard has been slow to come to hand therefore any supporters of this son of Danehill may
have been encouraged by his 2nd to Dutch Gold in the Chester Vase. Even if he were to improve here, you'd think that would need to be considerable for him to land this bounty. |
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THE GREAT
GATSBY: A good second to Alamshar at Leopardstown on his reappearance after making most of the running and keeping on when headed. He will appreciate the step up in trip here and should go well however is not guaranteed to improve past John Ox's runner here especially if that horse only just does what is required. |
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UNIGOLD: Stepped up on a promising effort on his recent
reappearance at Nottingham to finish an excellent 2nd to High Accolade in the Predominant Stakes at Goodwood last week. That form alone isn't good enough to win this, however he is still improving and could run creditably here. |
¦ SUMMARY ¦:¬»-- Ireland would appear to have a very strong hand here and it will not surprise me if both Alamshar and Refuse To Bend made the frame (wouldn't be at all surprised if Alamshar obliged). However as it's the Derby let's see if we can try and find something at a bigger prize particularly those who want to have an each-way bet. Whilst it's easy to see why the likes of Norse Dancer and
Magistretti might appeal, Kris Kin catches the eye, particularly after that good effort at Chester. There was a lot to like about that performance and at odds of around 10/1, should give each-way supporters a good run for their money. Save with Alamshar and those of you who want the shock winner could do a lot worse than side with
Graikos who is probably overpriced (though he is already contracting in the market due to the 'Frankie factor'...
He could be a dreadful price by post time.
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Kris Kin, (e/w)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Alamshar
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Refuse To Bend
¦ 4th place?³ ¦:¬»-- Graikos
¦¨¨¨¨¨"Sixth¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 4.45 Vodafone Rated Stakes (B) (H `cap) 1mile~4f 10yds Penalty £29000 4-Year-Olds plus 1st - £29,000, 2nd - £10,960, 3rd - £5,460, 4th - £2,460 8 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- Muhareb, Sentinel, Salim Toto, Gulf, and Mesmeric, look the safest
choices in a competitive handicap which comes next. Muhareb, was well drawn when winning
last time out at York and is show top ro well again here, however top weight Salim Toto, gets
the vote over Sentinel. Neither have run this term, however Hughie Morrison's mare is more likely to run her race after her
absence [she was placed in this event under similar circumstances last term] and gets
the vote. Mesmeric, whose run well this season gets the eachway vote.
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Salim Toto,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Sentinel,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Mesmeric, [e/w]
¦¨¨¨¨¨"Seventh¨Race"¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- 5.20 Vodafone H `cap (C) 6f Penalty £29000 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £29,000, 2nd - £10,800, 3rd - £5,300, 4th - £2,300 17 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- The last race on the card is another open looking
handicap over six furlongs, in which Loyal Tycoon, Halmahera, Beyond The Clouds, Mutawaqed, Simianna, Tychy, Ringmoor Down, My American Beauty, Onlytime Will Tell, Baralinka, and Roses Of Spring, can all be given chances. Tychy, has been in a rich vein of form of late, however will need to post an
all-time personal best to win this.. because of this I'll [reluctantly] pass him over with Mutawaqed, who is fragile ...
but very talented. A replication of his last time out second at Kempton behind Ringmoor Down, [who
reopposes here] may ultimately prove to be good enough... we shall see!!!.
¦ 1st PLACE ¬ WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Mutawaqed,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Tychy,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Roses Of Spring, [e/w]
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