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Analysis
& Selections by
"a
rØøk"
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at
eachway odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown
before each race's analysis.
SANDOWN PARK
Saturday, July 5.
|¯¯¯"First¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 1.45 Porcelanosa Sprint Stakes [Listed Race]. 24entries 5f 6yds Penalty £18560 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £18,560, 2nd - £6,940, 3rd - £3,420, 4th - £1,500 14 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»-The Eclipse day at Sandown opens with a competitive-looking sprint over the minimum distance. Of the 14 declared runners, Vision of Light (who returned to winning form at Yarmouth last time out when beating bonus by 1
½ lengths), Romantic Liaison (useful two-year-old who will be all the better for her
reappearance behind Choisir at the Royal Meeting), Ego (interesting if she recaptured her 2-year-old from from last term - slightly disappointing so far this season), The Tatling (course and distance winner who has been running consistently well in handicap company this season), The Trader (a staying-on fifth behind Choisir at the Royal Meeting) and Bahamian Pirate (a group-class sprinter at best who hasn't recaptured last season's form at the time of writing) are in my view the ones to concentrate on. Vision Of Light will be hard to beat here, however it wouldn't
surprise me if Romantic Liaison didn't improve enough to nick this. She is just
preferred. The stronger pace of this listed race company may help The Tatling make the frame if he can get a clear run throughout.
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Romantic Liaison
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Vision Of Light
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- The Tatling
|¯¯¯"Second¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 2.20 Addleshaw Goddard Stakes (Registered As The Esher Stakes) [Listed Race]. 10entries 2Miles~78yds Penalty £18560 4-Year-Olds plus 1st - £19,040, 2nd - £6,940, 3rd - £3,420, 4th - £1,500 5 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»-Only five horses line up for the Addleshaw Goddard Esher Stakes over 2 miles. However, the race may prove to be more competitive than it initially seems. On the face of it, Persian Punch is the horse to beat. A replication of his excellent 2nd to Mr Dinos in the Gold Cup last time out would be more than good enough to land this prize. This race however is likely to be far more tactical and for all his courage, Persian Punch's game plan is well-known to his rivals and it's very likely that they will simply allow him to do the 'donkey work' before trying to poach the prize up the straight. If he can get them going from a long way out, he may well prevail, however it wouldn't
surprise me if he wasn't 'done for toe' here ( especially if his rivals exercise sound judgement and challenge wide, ensuring they do not get locked into a battle with him). If
Cover-Up managed to do this, it would not surprise me to see him land this prize.
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Cover-Up
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Persian Punch
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- Tamiani Trail
|¯¯¯"Third¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 2.55 Tote Scoop6 Stakes (H` cap) 38entries 1Mile~14yds Penalty £58000 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £58,000, 2nd - £21,700, 3rd - £10,700, 4th - £4,700 18 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»- The third race on the card is a particularly trappy handicap which Scoop 6 punters will have to solve to win their bumper bonus. Of the eighteen runners declared overnight Funfair,
Adekshan, Excellento, Cornelius, Calcutta, Lafi, Royal Dignitary, Unshakable and Takes Tutu appear to be the strongest candidates. Funfair (badly drawn in the hunt cup last time out) will be a popular choice with punters here, however there was plenty to like about the reappearance of
Adekshan behind stablemate Sublimity at Newmarket in May (even though sublimity disappointed at the royal meeting last time out). Adekshan looked as though he would improve significantly on that effort and if he has enough experience, he could go close in what I expect to be a close call. Lafi (who won a Class C handicap on his reappearance at Sandown) and Takes Tutu (who confirmed our impression that he was better than his most recent form figures suggested when running into the frame behind
Attaché at the Royal Meeting) are the others I'd consider here.
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Adekshan
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Lafi
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- Takes Tutu (USA) (e/w)
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-- Funfair
|¯¯¯"Fourth¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 3.35 CORAL-ECLIPSE STAKES [gr. 1] 27entries 1Mile~2f 7yds Penalty £214600 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £214,600, 2nd - £76,250, 3rd - £37,750, 4th - £16,750 15 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»-A fascinating clash of the generations comes next. The one certainty being that
Izdiham and Narrative are going to ensure that it is a truly run affair, attempting to aid the chances of Nayef and Grandera, their respective stablemates. Nayef is the punters idea of the winner at the moment due to his
success in the Princess Of Wales Stakes at the Royal Meeting where he quickened inside the final furlong to beat amongst others, Islington (3
½ lengths behind in 3rd), Olden Times (4 ½ lengths behind in 4th), Falbrav (8 lengths behind in 5th), Kaieteur (11 lengths behind in 6th) and Grandera (12 lengths behind in 7th) who all reoppose here. The formbook says that Nayef should prevail again, however a look at his form reminds you that whilst he is consistent, he is by no means a certainty, besides we are well aware that Islington and Grandera are capable of better that they showed that day.
What about the other runners in the line-up?
We know that the South African raider Victory Moon is possibly better than he showed behind Dubai Destination in the Dubai stakes and that it therefore may be totally unwise to dismiss his chances. Whilst there are plenty of punters who will tell you that Norse Dancer is better than his last effort suggests, Richard Quinn being blamed for him having been set too much to do in The Derby. We've also written so much about the race and haven't even mentioned
Ballydoyle 's double-barreled shot at this race, and yet on last season's form Hold That Tiger would be a much shorter price whilst there is possibly something in the argument that his other runner
Ballestrini might be better over this trip than when finishing a creditable 5th in The Derby, one place in front of Dutch Gold who also seemed to find 12 furlongs too far in that event. A word for the least exposed runner in the race, Delsarte who lost his unbeaten record behind High Accolade at the Royal Meeting. He is a particularly imposing individual who still appears to have plenty of improvement in him, and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that he could run a big race here.
Where do we suggest you put your cash? The emphasis on stamina makes Islington
particularly attractive here, despite the poor record of fillies in this race and I just prefer her to Hold That Tiger who is crying out for this sort of trip. Falbrav and Delsarte would be others I'd consider.
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Islington
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Hold That Tiger
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- Falbrav
¦ 4th Place? ¦:¬»-- Delsarte, (e/w)
|¯¯¯"Fifth¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 4.10 Distaff Stakes 19entries 1Mile~14yds Penalty £18560 3-Year-Olds only fillies 1st - £18,560, 2nd - £6,940, 3rd - £3,420, 4th - £1,500 10 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»-Back to Listed company for the next race on the card over and extended mile. Favourable Terms, Al Ihtithar, Duty Paid, Soldera,
Gonfilia, Almaviva, Itnab and Miss Ivanhoe would be the horses I'd concentrate on. It's possibly worth taking a chance here with Itnab who is the preferred choice of retained jockey Richard Hills (in preference to All Ihtithar). Itnab was particularly impressive when winning on her reappearance at Goodwood and is worth chancing in an open affair. Godolphin's Gonfilia could be the best each-way value in the race.
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Itnab
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Gonfilia (e/w)
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- Al Ihtithar
|¯¯¯"Sixth¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 4.45 Raynes Park H` cap 29entries 7f 16yds Penalty £15761.49 3-Year-Olds only 1st - £15,761, 2nd - £5,904, 3rd - £2,914, 4th - £1,284 10 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»-The penultimate race is a class C handicap over just short of a mile. South Atlantic, Hoh Investor, Indian Trail,
Crafty Calling, Excalinor and Greek Revival appear to have the strongest claims. Difficult to look past current market leader South Atlantic who probably is a step ahead of the handicapper and comes
across as being much better than he showed when cheekily winning at Musselburgh
last time out. He is preferred to recent Goodwood winner Excalinor and Hoh Investor who may be the best each-way value in the race
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- South Atlantic
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Excalinor
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- Hoh Investor
|¯¯¯"Seventh¨Race"¯¯¯|¯¯¯»-- 5.20 Guildford H` cap 29entries 1Mile~2f 7yds Penalty £7065.50 3-Year-Olds only. 1m. 2f. 1st - £7,066, 2nd - £2,144, 3rd - £1,057, 4th - £514 8 Declared
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¦ "a rØøk" ¦:¬»-Another interesting handicap ends the card. Again, Sir Michael Stoute holds the key to the race as his maiden winner Machinist (who beat Chetak at Lingfield last October) heads the market with only Flight Of Esteem (a good second behind Fast Foil last time out at Salisbury), Compton Eclipse (a winner of two of his three last starts, most recently at
Carlisle nine days ago), course and distance winner Toy Show and Tender Falcon ( a fair 3rd last time out behind
Downtherefordancin at Windsor 12 days ago) to beat. The market might be the best guide to Machinist's claims, however I am interested in Toy Show who stumbled when travelling well in a similar event last time out at Nottingham. A return to the form shown when winning here might see him make the frame, (and for those punters not prepared to side with Sir Michael Stoute again) he makes plenty of appeal at each-way odds...I just prefer him.
¦ ¹st PLACE? ¬ THE WINNER? ¦:¬»-- Toy Show (e/w)
¦ ²nd Place? ¦:¬»-- Machinist
¦ ³rd Place? ¦:¬»-- Tender Falcon
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