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Analysis
& Selections by
".b.i.g."
THE
FEATURE MEETING
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest
winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at
eachway odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown
before each race's analysis.
NEWMARKET
Sunday, May 4.
|¨¨¨¨I^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 2:10 Curtis Medical Rated Stakes (B H 'cap) 17runners 6f Penalty £17400 4-Year-Olds plus. 1st - £17,400, 2nd - £6,585, 3rd - £3,285, 4th - £1,485 17 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- A competitive looking sprint opens day three of the meeting. Of the 17 declared runners for this £30,000 added prize, I can make cases for top-weight Tedburrow as well as Danger Over, Border Subject, Royal Millenium,
Capricho, Attaché, The Tatling, Ceepio, Peruvian Chief, Watching and Abbajabba. Several of these met at the last meeting over 7 furlongs. On that
occasion, Attaché won the day putting over 2 lengths between himself and Royal Millenium (4th), Border Subject (6th),
Capricho (9th), Seven No Trumps (11th) and Irony (14th). That was a good effort from Michael Jarvis's runner and it is difficult to imagine him being beaten by one of these.
Ceepio will probably ensure that this race is truly run and as a result, it is difficult to oppose
Attaché. However, I do believe The Tatling has another good prize in him and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't run well for each-way supporters.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Attaché
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- The Tatling, [e/w]
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Border Subject
|¨¨¨¨II^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 2:40 Mail On Sunday/tote Mile (H 'cap) (Qualifier) (C) 20runners 1mile~ Penalty £14196 3-Year-Olds only. 1st - £14,196, 2nd - £4,336, 3rd - £2,148, 4th - £1,054 20 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- The second race on the card is a typical renewal of the Mail On Sunday series. Of the horses declared to run, Howle Hill,
Arakan, Self Evident, Rifleman, Dancinginthestreet, Little Good Bay, Aunt Rita, Backwell, Leo Boy, Jordan's Elect and Ho Investor would appear to have best claims of the 20 declared runners. Leo Boy went into many a notebook as a result of a good reappearance effort here 19 days ago and is sure to give a good account of himself here, however
Arakan, who beat New Seeker, [who won here earlier in the week] and Self Evident, [who
won on his reappearance at Beverley] make slightly greater appeal.. Arakan is just
preferred.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Arakan
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Self Evident
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Leo Boy
|¨¨¨¨III^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 3:15 R. L. Davison Pretty Polly Stakes (A) (Listed Race) 8runners 1mile~2f Penalty £18560 3-Year-Olds only fillies. 1st - £18,560, 2nd - £6,915, 3rd - £3,395, 4th - £1,475 8 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- Eight runners have been declared for the Oaks trial and only three make any real appeal - Al Ihtithar (a winner on her 2nd start at Lingfield who ran well in Listed company at Newbury last October), Hi Dubai (A highly promising 2nd on her debut last August who had been working well in the UAE earlier this year and Hold To Ransom (another horse who boasts good
juvenile form, who didn't run too badly behind collude on her seasonal reappearance
here at the last meeting). There might not be much to choose between these three, however such are the favourable comments of Hi Dubai that I'm persuaded to give her the benefit of the doubt, despite the poor runs of Godolphin's yesterday.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Hi Dubai
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Al Ihtithar
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- High To Ransom
|¨¨¨¨IV^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 3:55 1000 Guineas Stakes (Sponsored by Sagitta) (A) (gr. 1) 21runners 1mile~ Penalty £185600 3-Year-Olds only fillies. 1st - £185,600, 2nd - £69,700, 3rd - £34,500, 4th - £15,300 21 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- One of the best renewals of the 1000 Guineas in recent years and there is no doubt that the winner can be held in the highest regard. So high is the standard that I would only want to consider the following runners:
- Gonafilla (GER) - Has a similar profile to last year's winner in so far as she joined Godolphin after winning twice last season in Germany. Lost nothing in defeat behind Mezzo
Soprano in the UAE 1000 Guineas and could run a nice race for each-way supporters.
- Hectors Girl
- Up against it on all known form, however her solid third place in the Nell
Gwyn Stakes here 19 days ago suggests there may be more to come.
- Intercontinental
- Has a wonderful pedigree for this event, being a full-sister to the
wonderful Banks Hill and has already demonstrated that she possesses much of her sister's ability. Strolled home on her reappearance at Maison Lafitte and must go well if staying the trip.
- Khulood - Could do no more that win last month's Nell
Gwyn Stakes however this is harder.
- Mezzo Soprano
- Needs to improve on what she's show so far to win this, however this ex-Andre Fabre trained filly suggested when winning the UAE 1000 Guineas that she may be open to such improvement.
- Russian Rhythm
- Arguably she is the best home trained runner on form and if she were to replicate the level of form show in the Lowther Stakes last Autumn, she would be difficult to beat. Home reports of her
well-being are mixed and as a result, confusing.
- Six Perfections
- Magnifique, en Francais and were she to replicate that over here she would be very difficult to beat. She is a hold-up horse and will therefore need the run of the race however her ability to change gears is a welcome asset at this level.
- Soviet Song - James Fanshawe has done wonders already with this Group 1 winning filly and if she came here in the same form as when winning last time out last term at Ascot, would have to be feared. For all of her ability, has this race come a few weeks too soon?
Tactics will ultimately
determine who wins this prize and as was the case in the 2000 guineas, getting first run could be all important. The French raiders do on paper make most appeal and I'd be looking for one of these to land the prize. Time may prove that both of these fillies are from the top drawer however Six Perfection's ability to quicken at this distance is taken to prove to be the decisive factor.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Six Perfection's
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Intercontinental
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Gonafilla (GER), [e/w]
|¨¨¨¨V^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 4:30 May Classified Stakes (B) 7runners 7f Penalty £13442 3-Year-Olds only. 1st - £13,442, 2nd - £4,096, 3rd - £2,028, 4th - £994 7 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- Seven runners have been declared for this Classified Stakes. Of these, I'd be looking to Polar Force,
Aversham, Zabaglione and Excellento to provide the winner. Excellento is taken to build on an encouraging seasonal reappearance which saw him land a Ripon maiden. This impeccably bred colt is open to further improvement and hopefully can come on enough to win a prize of this description at these advantageous terms.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Excellento
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Zabaglione
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Aversham,
|¨¨¨¨VI^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 5:05 March H 'cap (C) 19runners 1mile~4f Penalty £8729 4-Year-Olds plus. 1st - £8,729, 2nd - £3,281, 3rd - £1,626, 4th - £723 19 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- It's The Limit, Kylkenny, Mystic Mile, Summer Wine, Ring of Destiny, Forbearing, Dangerously Good, Mamcazma,
Danakil, and Prins Willem make the greatest appeal in the penultimate race of the meeting. Kylkenny has been in great form this term and is virtually
guaranteed to give a good account of himself today, however the lightly-raced It's The Limit, who hails from the in form
yard of Amanda Perrett is preferred, especially as he usually runs well fresh.
There was a lot to like about the manner of his latest win at Kempton last October, where he
stayed on bravely to without the late challenge of Zajeel to win by a short head.. Assuming he gets the
run of this race, he may good enough to land the spoils. Dangerously Good,
[didn't stay last time out] and Prins Willem make most appeal at eachway odds.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- It's The Limit,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Dangerously Good, [e/w]
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Kylkenny,
|¨¨¨¨VII^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 5:40 Hastings Maiden Stakes (D) 20runners 1mile~ Penalty £7068.75 3-Year-Olds only. 1st - £7,069, 2nd - £2,150, 3rd - £1,063, 4th - £519 20 Declared
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¦ " .b.i.g. " ¦:¬»-- The "final roll of the dice" is an interesting maiden over a mile. Some
nice sorts here, and its quite possible that this race could throw up several future winners... I like Act Of Duty, Colophony,
Laidlow, Caribbean Man, Munaafis, Time Ahead, Dawaarr, and Fernery, of the 20
declared runners. Act Of Duty, [who was second of his debut to Kalaman at Newbury last month would appear to have a distinct
advantage here and is very appealing.... however Henry Cecil's colt Colophony [ a son of Distant View, who is a full-brother to winner 10f winner Conclude, as well as being a half-brother to the useful Dance Dress] appeals something on paper which could be anything... if he were to
catch the eye beforehand... I'd be inclined to have a wager on him.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Colophony (USA),
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Act Of Duty,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Dawaarr, [e/w]
NEWMARKET
Saturday, May 3.
|¨¨¨¨I^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 1:45 Countrywide Steel & Tubes Rated Stakes H' cap (B) 1mile~2f Penalty £12081.40 4-Year-Olds plus 1st - £12,081, 2nd - £4,432, 3rd - £2,211, 4th - £1,000 13 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- Nadour Al Bahr, Shami, Solo Flight, Persian Lightning, Football Crazy, Counsel's Opinion, Internationalguest, Snow Leopard, Ionian Spring, Gallant Boy, Star Cross, Athenian and Finished Article all have chances on this classical day at Newmarket. The current 'tissue favourite' is Shami who has been in good form for David Loder this spring. he drops back two furlongs having been slightly unlucky behind
Chai Walla here last month. He is sure to give a good account of himself, however I do like Nadour Al Bahr here particularly after appearing to look unlucky when
finishing eighth at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance where he failed to get a clear run turning into the straight. Assuming that doesn't occur here, I'd be hopeful of a bold bid and he gets the vote. Solo Flight (who finished behind him at Kempton ) and Internationalguest (who should like the ground) are my ideas of the best each-way alternatives.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Nadour Al Bahr
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Solo Flight
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Internationalguest (e/w)
|¨¨¨¨II^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 2:20 Victor Chandler Palace House Stakes (A) (Group 3) 5f. Penalty £29000 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £29,000, 2nd - £10,750, 3rd - £5,250, 4th - £2,250 10 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- Not the greatest renewal of the Palace House Stakes and I believe it's possible to make a case for any on of Aramus, Bahamian Pirate, Kier Park, Lady Dominatrix, Needwood Blade, Pic Up Sticks, Repertory, Smokin Beau, Peace Offering and Wunders Dream. Repertory (who seems better than ever at ten years and who last time out won a Listed event at Cork) should go well and will appeal to some, however Bahamian Pirate (ground conditions should suit) and Wunders Dream (a decent two-year-old last season) make most appeal. Wunders Dream would be very interesting if she is trained on despite her age disadvantage, however, I suggest you play safe and hope that the prevailing soft ground helps Bahamian Pirate return to winning ways.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Bahamian Pirate
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Wunders Dream (e/w)
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Repertory
|¨¨¨¨III^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 2:55 Ladbrokes H' cap (C) 6f Penalty £29000 3-Year-Olds plus 1st - £29,000, 2nd - £10,800, 3rd - £5,300, 4th - £2,300 30 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- The third race on the card is another 'bookies benefit'...If I was structuring today's card, I certainly wouldn't put a 30 runner handicap before the big race of the day. Punters are hardly likely to be going for a touch but that's another topic in itself. Plenty of these can be given chances and if Fire Up The Band, Marsad, Mitcham, Colonel Cotton, Perfect Touch, Lochridge, Zilch, Pax, Midnight Parkes,
Injaaz, Old Blue Eyes, John O'Groats and Baralinka are amongst your possibles, I certainly wouldn't want to put you off here. Perfect Touch is an interesting raider here. He was in good form last season in similar events. Trainer Dermot Weld will know what is required to win a race of this nature and an encouraging 4th behind Avarado at The Curragh last months makes me believe that a big run is not out of the question. He is preferred. Pax, True Knight and Midnight Parkes are others who can go well, particularly for each-way punters.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Perfect Touch
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Pax
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Midnight Parkes
¦ 4th place?³ ¦:¬»-- True Knight
|¨¨¨¨IV^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 3:35 2000 GUINEAS STAKES (Sponsored by Sagitta) (A) (gr. 1) 1mile~Penalty £185600 3-Year-Olds only colts. 1st - £185,600, 2nd - £69,700, 3rd - £34,500, 4th - £15,300 20 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- To be brutally frank (mainly due to recent events) I had taken my eye somewhat off of this race. That said, I do understand why
Hold That Tiger,
Lateen Sails and Refuse To Bend head the market for this race. Hold That Tiger disappointed some observers at Arlington last October, however he did well to get so close to the winner Vindication after a tardy start. Personally, I happen to think that this is a better reflection of his potential than his win at
Longchamp in the Grand Criterion where he beat the Hitherto unbeaten Le Vie
Dei Colori by a length. I watched that horse run in Italy and know that he was unlucky not to have had an opportunity to respond (he had attempted to make all).
Essentially, I am saying that Hold That Tiger is decent by maybe isn't quite as good as some believe...yet. Arguably those comments apply to
Lateen Sails and Refuse To Bend who go into this race unbeaten having done all that was asked of them thus far. This is by no means a three horse affair as cases can also be made for
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Tout Seul,
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Hurricane Alan,
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Tomahawk,
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Audience,
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Muqbil,
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Saturn,
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Songlark
and
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Zafeen.
This is a particularly open renewal of the Guineas and nothing stands out to my eye. Whilst I'm fairly sure that the principals in the market will not be far away, I am certainly drawn towards Tomahawk and Songlark who arguably have as much chance as the market leaders who currently appear to offer punters far more in the way of value.
I watched Songlark just fail to beat Victory Moon in the UAE Derby in March and the fact he has been pleasing connections at home bodes well for his chances here., however Tomahawk is the selection. On the face of it, he has it all to do to beat Tout Seul who beat him in the Dewhurst here last October, however I do like the fact that he has proven he has trained on (something that Tout Seul has yet to demonstrate). More significantly, having selected
Clodovil to beat him at Longchamp last month, I took particular notice of the post-race commentary which strongly suggested that Tomahawk was unlucky in running and probably would have prevailed with a clear run. He is battle-hardened, he acts on the course, he goes on the ground, he'll do for me. I'm not sure if any bookmaker will offer any 4th place concessions here. If they do, Muqbil and Rockets and Rollers might well surprise at big odds.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Tomahawk
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Songlark
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Refuse To Bend
¦ 4th place?³ ¦:¬»--Muqbil
|¨¨¨¨V^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 4:10 Ruinart Champagne Conditions Stakes (C) 1mile~4f Penalty £8847.40 3-Year-Olds only 1m. 4f. 1st - £8,847, 2nd - £3,109, 3rd - £1,540, 4th - £684 4 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- Four horses line up for the Derby trial and a case can be made for each of
Calibre, Sabre D'Argent, Black Falcon and Westmorland Road. Amanda
Perrett's runner Westmorland Road is a brute of a horse who probably has the greatest scope for improvement of these, or that's the impression I got after seeing win at his seasonal reappearance at Newbury and
despite being taken by him I do feel he will struggle to deal with Sabre
D'Argent...if this horse stays the trip. When he won here over 10 furlongs last month, he didn't give any indication that this may be a trip too far.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Sabre D'Argent (USA)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Westmorland Road (USA)
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Calibre (USA)
|¨¨¨¨VI^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 4:45 European Metal Recycling Maiden Stakes (D) 5f Penalty £6776.25 2-Year-Olds only 1st - £6,776, 2nd - £2,060, 3rd - £1,018, 4th - £496 6 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- With only one horse having raced before, this looks far from easy. The current market suggests that
Kafuwain (a half-brother to Fard) and Lord Links (a half-brother to Pacific Paddy who win over a mile), (both of whom make their racecourse debuts here) and Savitsky (ran green over course and distance last month behind Hunting Lodge) are the horses to concentrate on here. Experience usually counts and I'm tempted to go with Savitsky here. So promising does
Kafuwain appear to be on pedigree, ai have decided to take a chance with him.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Kafuwain
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Savitsky (USA)
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Lord Links
|¨¨¨¨VII^¨NEWMARKET ¨¨¨|¨¨¨¨¨»- 5:20 Curragh 'Home Of The Irish Classics' Conditions Stakes (B) 1mile~2f Penalty £12064 4-Year-Olds plus. 1st - £12,064, 2nd - £4,526, 3rd - £2,238, 4th - £990 10 Declared
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¦ ".b.i.g." ¦:¬»-- A trappy conditions event ends the card. Cases can be made for Endless Hall, Border Arrow, Carnival Dancer, Capal Garmon, Sensible and Cape Town. The conditions of the race appear to favour Endless Hall who goes
unpenalised her despite winds in Graded company. If he can overcome and an absence of 602 days, he could be difficult to beat here. Carnival Dancer and French raider Sensible look
likeliest to capitalise should he falter.
¦ 1^ ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬»-- Endless Hall
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬»-- Carnival Dancer
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬»-- Sensible (FR)
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