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Analysis & Selections by
ð` rØøk
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
Up
to the minute racing news....
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Newbury
Saturday, February 14 2004. |
goingSTICK ¬: Good -
H´dle¨course. (8.4), Steeple¨CH´.-course (8.5)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨First¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 1.10
CiSTM Novices´ Steeple¨CH´. [C] 6 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 3Miles~ Penalty £8320 5-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨one¨tº¨jump¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬: are there any horses from "ºNE TO JUMP" 2003/4 - our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»--: Armen (FR) and Mister Banjo (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- Five of the runners; Mister Banjo, Dear Deal, Gielgud, Armen and Be My Destiny can be argued to have chances in the opening novice chase. You could argue that DEAR DEAL in beating Trusting Tom at Kempton 3m last
month, sets the standard hear and as he is guaranteed to stay has a tactic
advantage over his rivals. However he wasn´t as classy over hurdles as MISTER BANJO, who followed up a win at
Bangor-On-Dee on his return from injury, with a slightly disappointing effort last time out at Sandown Park, when trailing home last of three, 28l behind the winner Calling Brave. That effort
isn´t going to be enough to win this, however you'd hope the step up in trip and slight drop in grade may bring about enough
improvement to land this prize and we will side with him here, although Dear Deal, plus Martin
Pipe's chasing debutante ARMEN, [who ran well for a long way behind Demi Beau at Cheltenham in December], and GIELGUD, [a fair third
behind Jardin de Beaulieu at Kempton], are capable of capitalizing or any chinks shown in his armoury.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Mister Banjo (FR)
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Dear Deal
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Armen (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Second¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 1.40 Systems By Design Handicap
H´dle. [C] 17 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 3Miles~110yds Penalty £6403.20 4-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- A very open looking three-mile event comes next. Many of those declared
can be given a chance including Willie John Daly, Glacial Evening, Quick, Derivative, Joly Bey, Toon Trooper, Emphatic, Zero Risk, Shosen, Monger Lane, Oh So Wisley, Zaffre Noir and Mazileo.
This race was last year won by a progressive novice on an upward curve and if I was looking for a horse with
similar credentials here then WILLIE JOHN DALY, [who looked all over the winner until being mowed down on
the run-in by Hirvine last time out at Kempton], or QUICK, [an ordinary maiden on the flat who has flourished over staying distances, and is
unbeaten after making all when beating Usk Valley by 5lemgnths at Plumpton in
December], would appear to fit the bill. I'm not convince that we've seen the best of Quick yet and although the
Nicholashayne operation transformed like Jekyll and Hyde at present, I wouldn´t won't to oppose him until he is
beaten. For those looking for a horse to back at eachway odds then I'd be interested in SHOSEN, who looked in need of
the running behind Vicars Destiny at Wetherby last month and should leave the
bare bones of that form behind granted luck in running.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Quick,
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Shosen, [e.W.]
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Willie John Daly,
¦¨¨4ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Derivative,
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Third¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 2.10 Queen Mother Memorial Fund Game Spirit
Steeple¨CH´. [A] [Sponsored By The Tote] - [gr. II] - 6 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 2Miles~1f Penalty £31900 5-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- Six runners are declared for this Grade two chase,
though only Azertyuïop, Kadarann, Armaturk, and Wahiba Sands warrant any consideration.
AZERTYUÏOP, amazing getting weight from his stable-companions Kadarann and Armaturk, will be a warm order to win this,
especially after his great effort last month in the Victor Chandler chase when only just failing by a neck to hold
Isio 's renewed challenge. He is favoured by the weights and really should win this, however both WAHIBA SANDS, KADARANN and ARMATURK have the
ability to occasionally ruffle him and a close look at Armaturk' s record in races over 2m - 2m4f over fences, [where he
hasn´t been beaten that often] suggests that he may be the horse to give Azertyuïop most to do. His easy defeat of Exit
Swinger reads well after that horse's solid run in defeat behind Édredon Bleu at Wincanton earlier in
the week and if I was going to have a wager it might be on the forecast
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Azertyuïop (FR),
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Armaturk (FR),
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Kadarann (FR),
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Fourth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 2.45 TOTE GOLD TROPHY
H´DLE. [Handicap] [A] - [gr. III] - 25 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty £72500 4-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨one¨tº¨jump¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬: are there any horses from "ºNE TO JUMP" 2003/4 - our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»--: Le Duc (FR) and
Visibility (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- The big race on the card has attracted a decent field of
twenty-five, however the presence of Champion hurdler Rooster Booster does ruin the race
somewhat, only in so far as his presence means most of these wont be running off of their true
handicap weight. Saying that plenty still appeal and we wouldn´t want to put off anyone who likes
the chances of the Champion Hurdler, or Sporazene, Limerick Boy, Tom Paddington, Hasty Prince, Risky Reef, Geos, Mughas, Self Defense, Monkerhostin, Never, Saintsaire, Westender, Benbyas, Le Duc, Man
O´Mystery, Contraband, Sud Bleu, Quazar, or Copeland. We'll be amazed if this
isn´t strongly run from flagfall and even more surprised if CONTRABAND and BENBYAS
don´t cut out the early pace, this does set the race up for those coming off of the
pace, and we'll be looking for something coming from the pack as our main choice.
Do we think it will be ROOSTER BOOSTER... frankly no... This is a good horse, however this is a very stiff task, even though he has been given a racing weight of
11st. 12lbs here. He readily beat Hasty Prince by 7length in Haydock' s Champion Hurdle trail last time however the
turnaround in weights here will make confirming that form all the harder. Logically this means he has a
stiff task with the likes of WESTENDER, [who sulked behind The French Furze at Newcastle in November, but has a nice weight when compared to the form of the
Champion Hurdle], SPORAZENE, [who finished just behind him when they chased home Intersky Falcon at Kempton at
Christmas], SELF DEFENSE, [on their form in the Agfa Hurdle and sand Champion
Hurdle], GEOS, [The Bula Hurdle in November] and COPELAND, [On their form of two seasons ago].
You want to be looking elsewhere for the winner and as well as the above-mentioned, LIMERICK BOY, [who stuck on so tenaciously when beating Perouse by a neck in the
Lanzarote Hurdle], MUGHAS, [in good form earlier in the season, however will need to
bounce back from a flat run behind Turtle Soup at Warwick in December], RISKY REEF, [an excellent fourth
only 4 ½lengths behind Back In Front at Punchestown in November], NEVER, [ yet to fire for Jonjo O'Neill, however he form when trained
by Francois Doumen is very interesting] LE DUC, [not mentally tough enough to do
himself justice over fences, showed last season at Aintree was a useful horse he is on his day], SAINTSAIRE and SUD BLEU, [who ran well in defeat behind Thesis in the "Ladbroke" at Ascot], plus TOM PADDINGTON, [easy winner on his
reappearance, who was still in contention when falling three out in the same race at Ascot] would be on my shortlist.
This isn´t easy to call and therefore I will take a chance with Never, who has the ability to win this and receives a useful 10lbs deduction off of his back,
courtesy of his riders' claim. If he is back to his best he could run into a place at a nice price. Geos, Sporazene and Risky Reef and the
likeliest in my view to follow him home
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Never (FR), [e.W.]
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Risky Reef
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Geos (FR),
¦¨¨4ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Sporazene
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Fifth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 3.20 Aon Steeple¨CH´. [A] - [gr. II] - 8 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 3Miles~ Penalty £40600 6-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»--A fascinating renewal of the Aon Chase comes next.. Much
depends on how strong you believe Keen Leader's credential, to determine whether you
believe Sir Rembrandt, Seebald, Irish Hussar, Shardam or Horus, will figure here. KEEN LEADER was very
impressive last time out at Haydock Park and there was plenty to like about the way he powered
clear of Truckers Tavern by 17lengths, with Hussard Collonges further back in third. Those two horses have somewhat let that form down and whilst he is the deserved favourite, we
wouldn´t called him a certainty. Actually if the SIR REMBRANDT, who jumped for fun when winning the
Rehearsal Chase turned up, Keen Leader will plenty to deal win, however he jumped poorly when pulling up at the 12th behind
Jaïr Du Cochet in the Pillar Chase last time at Cheltenham and as this was a "last minute plan" rather than planned, you
wouldn´t be surprised if were a little short of peak fitness here. Does this means the race is over.. maybe not. HORUS has showed decent form over this trip this season and the horse that was travelling well when falling at Haydock two runs ago or when beating
Behrajan at Ascot could get into the frame, as might SEEBALD, [who I thought was
travelling well when being hampered and unseated his rider at the 13th in the King George Vi chase] and IRISH HUSSAR, [if he
came back to the form he showed when winning at Aintree last April]. There
are too many " ifs" for my taste here, which means I cant oppose the favourite, however If I was going to risk any
"hard-earned" here, it would be more likely to go on the Pipe pair than Sir
Rembrandt who cant really have had enough time to fully prepare for this.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Keen Leader
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Seebald (GER)
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Horus, [e.W.]
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Sixth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 3.55 K2 Recruitment Jane Shouler Birthday Novices´
H´dle. [C] 18 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty £7540 5-Year-Olds plus
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨one¨tº¨jump¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬: are there any horses from "ºNE TO JUMP" 2003/4 - our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»--: Dictum (GER)
¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- Another big lines up for the penultimate race on
the card... Dictum, Albuhera, Vintage Premium, King Eider, Cooldine King, Scorned, Crafty Monkey, Amicelli, Taffrail and
Arc En Ciel look as though they'll be heading the market . Naturally having picked out DICTUM for our ONE TO JUMP feature in
the autumn, we are drawn to him and I dare say many punters will be after his easy win at Ascot last time out. Should Contraband run well in the Tote Gold Trophy, it will be impossible for punters to ignore the 19lengths
drubbing Susan Nock's charge inflicted on him that day. This wont be easy though as ALBUHERA, [One of the better
novices of the early season, who is back after a short beak after finishing fifth to Perle De Puce at Ascot in December], and VINTAGE PREMIUM, [a useful performer on
the flat, who has run creditably in both of his two starts over hurdles] are both capable of exposing any
weaknesses in his armoury. I don't think this will be easy, however I will side with our featured runner and also suggest SCORNED, [who ran well on his
reappearance behind Dictum] as the eachway alternative.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Dictum (GER)
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Albuhera
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Scorned (GER), [e.W.]
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Seventh¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨¨»-- 4.25 Aon Standard Open National Hunt Flat [A] - [gr. II] - 24 runners. - Race Distance: This race will be run over 2Miles~110yds Penalty £12000 4, 5 and 6-Year-Olds
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨next¨time¨out¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬: are there any horses from "NEXT TIME OUT?" - our feature which; each week, provides a list of horses to follow during the remainder of the current national hunt season? ¦¨¨¨¨¨»--: Ballyalbany and Bob Bob Bobbin
¦¨¨¨¨ð´¨rØøk¨¨¨¨¦¨¨¨¨»-- One of the better bumpers to be
held during the season ends the card... though it may not be much of a better heat. Secret Ploy, Baby Run, Rendova, Blushing Bull, Bob Bob Bobbin, Mount Clerigo, Celtic Son, Demarco, Corrib Eclipse, Mardello, Finely Tuned, Kitski, State Of Play and Ballyalbany, all ticked enough boxes to merit a mention, however SECRET PLOY will be hard to beat, even though he only has a
½length theoretically over BABY RUN on their meeting at Cheltenham. CELTIC SON, [who has been with the
Nicholashayne operation for well over a year] and BOB BOB BOBBIN, [a good second to Noplanofaction at
Chepstow in December] will be the amongst those we hope show some promise here.
¦¨¨1ª¨PLACE?¨¬¨THE WINNER?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Secret Ploy,
¦¨¨2ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Baby Run
¦¨¨3ª¨Place?¨¨¦¨¨¨»-- Bob Bob Bobbin, [e.W.]
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