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Analysis & Selections by
.t.h.e. .r.o.o.k.
Whether it be
"the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er CHOICE), as well as
the next best runners (in our view, this can include any horses who could run well at eachway
odds). Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
NEWBURY
Saturday 20th July
¦ 1er. NEWBURY ¦¬>TFM Cyntergy Conditions Stakes £18000 added, 2yo only, 7f, penalty £11299.05, 5 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Dublin, [a rare winner these days for David Loder on the all-weather at Wolverhampton], Mark of Zorro, [who should come on for his initial start at Kempton, where he stayed on nicely to pip Swift Alchemist on the line] and Big Smoke, [a winner at Salisbury on his second start] appear to be the likeliest to take the opener on Newbury's card. This is such a difficult race to call.... my gut instinct (and recent stable form) suggest that Mark of Zorro is the safest option for those wishing to play.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Mark of Zorro,
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Dublin,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Big Smoke,
¦ 2e. NEWBURY ¦¬> Ruinart Champagne Stakes (Registered As The Hackwood Stakes) (Listed Race). £26500 added, 3yo plus, 6f 8yds, penalty £16457.49, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> Vision of Night, Indian Country, Mugharreb, Sartorial, Marika, Ashdown Express and Massarra, all have chances in the second. I like Marika, who disapointed last time out at Newcastle (behind Vision of Night, who reopposes here). She probably is my idea of the best eachway bet on offer - however on that form its hard to see her finishing in front of Vision of Night, or for that matter Mugharreb, (who would close here if reproducing the form shown when finishing a neck behind Invincible Spirit in the Duke of York Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) at the Dante Meeting), or Indian Country an excellent fourth in the Golden Jubilee Stakes (Group 1).... In another difficult call, I'll be hoping that that Mugharreb has his head in front where it matters the most.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Mugharreb (USA),
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬> Vision of Night,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Marika, [e/w]
¦ 3e. NEWBURY ¦¬> Cantor Sport - Spread Free Steventon Stakes (Listed Race) £25000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 2f 6yds, penalty £15805, 7 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> Tobougg, Foreign Affairs, Potemkin, Highdown, Suleiman, and Aramram, are the likeliest winners of the third. Tobougg, should find this easier than when contesting the Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group 1) on his European reappearance. Frankly he was a little disappointing that day, weakening tamely after challenging for the lead early in the straight. He has to be feared though, and he makes more appeal than Aramram, [who may have the ability to score, however is becoming difficult to back/tip after dumping his pilot on the bend (for the second time this term) at
Maisons-Laffite last time out], Potemkin, [fifth behind Zindabad in the Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) at the Royal Meeting], Highdown, [well behind Burning Sun in the Hampton Court Stakes, also at Ascot], and Suleiman, [who ran well when finishing a nose behind in the Prix du Lys (Group 3) at Longchamp at the end of June]. Foreign Affairs, could be a different proposition.... whilst you can argue that his form doesn't immediately appear to be as solid at Tobogg's - I do like to back horses with the "winning habit". He won cosily on his reappearance at Doncaster, and has only finished out of the frame once in his career - when finishing a creditable tenth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe-Lucien Barriere (Group 1). Sir Mark Prescott wouldnt be running unless he thought his charge was good enough to land this prize, and on balance I would rather be on his side ... than against him.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Foreign Affairs,
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬> Tobougg,
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬> Aramram,
¦ 4e. NEWBURY ¦¬> Weatherbys Super Sprint £135000 added, 2yo only, 5f 34yds, penalty £78300, 24 runners.
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¦ (THEY'RE OFF 2002) - are there any horses from "they're off" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the flat season?¦:¬> Sir Edwin Landseer (USA)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>Hurricane Alan, Monsieur Boulanger, Wunders Dream, Queen's Victory, The Privateer, Presto Vento, Golden Nun, Danehill Stroller, Sir Edwin Landseer and Aimee's Delight, head the market for what should another competitive renewal of this Sales race. Hurricane Alan, [the winner of his last three starts, most recently when easily landing the Goffs Challenge at the Curragh at the end of June] and Wunders Dream [a 7length winner at Nottingham last time out], have the strongest form claims, however in this sort of race, the likes of Queen's Victory, [second in a listed race at Sandown on her last start], The Privateer, [a good second at Bath in a race which is working out well], Presto Vento, [a fair seventh in the Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 2) ], and topweight Sir Edwin Landseer [who won as he liked at Doncaster at the end of June] won't be too far away. I have to go with Wunders Dream, who was most impressive at Nottingham, however I'll be hoping that Sir Edwin Landseer goes well at a big price.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Wunders Dream,
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Sir Edwin Landseer (USA), [e/w]
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬> The Privateer,
¦ 5e. NEWBURY ¦¬> ladbrokes.com H'cap £40000 added, 3yo plus, 1m, penalty £23200, 15 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> Finished Article, Tony Tie, Takes Tutu, Calcutta, Laggan Minstrel, Nashaab, Dance On The Top, Dennis Our Menace, Forbearing, Naviasky, and Faithful Warrior, make most appeal in this mile event. Nothing really stands out, however having selected Takes Tutu on his last couple of starts - I am loathed to desert him here, especially as he didn't run too badly over 1m2f at Sandown two weeks ago. I think the ground conditions (much faster than at Sandown) should help and he should go close.. Hold up horses Finished Article, Calcutta, and Naviasky, look to be the main threats, the last-named, [who didn't disgrace himself in listed company last time, at Ascot], should go well for eachway "thieves".
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Takes Tutu (USA),
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬> Naviasky, [e/w]
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬> Finished Article,
¦ 6e. NEWBURY ¦¬> Doric Signs Rated Stakes [H'cap] - £12000 added, 3yo plus, 6f 8yds, penalty £8017.92, 14 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> Lord Protector, Forever Times, Beyond Calculation, Nemo Fugat, Sir Northerndancer, Alpen Wolf, Hard To Catch, Taranaki and Woodbury all have chances in the penultimate race on the card. Beyond Calculation, going for a hat-trick after landing his last 2 races, most recently at Warwick and should go well here, however Lord Protector appears to be returning to form just at the right time. He was staying on stoutly behind Mine in the Bunbury Cup at the July meeting having met trouble in running just over a furlong from home. Given luck in running, I wouldn't be surprised if he landed this prize. Hard To Catch, who ran well at Brighton on his latest start and Sir Northerndancer (coming down the weights after failing to win thus far this season, however he didn't run too badly at Kempton last time and is interesting with his rider claiming 7lbs) both appeal as each-way possibles. Sir Northerndancer is preferred.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬> Lord Protector
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Sir Northerndancer (e/w)
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Beyond Calculation
¦ 7e. NEWBURY ¦¬> TFM Cyntergy H'cap - £12000 added, 3yo plus, 1m 5f 61yds, penalty £8658, 9 runners.
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬> Showpiece, Hambleden, Rahwaan, Ballet Score and Shuwaib are the horses to concentrate on in the lucky last. Although Showpiece is likely to attract support going for his third win this term having already won at Salisbury and Newmarket, John Dunlop's representative Rahwaan will take plenty of beating here. Placed on his first two starts this term, Rahwaan made all and won as he liked at Chepstow, eventually beating Wise Guy by an long looking 4 lengths. He is the least exposed runner in this lineup and could possibly rout these if the handicapper has been overly lenient. I think he's worth siding with, however a word of caution - If the handicapper has fairly assessed him, he is possibly vulnerable : especially if he attempts to make all. His style of running is going to suit Hambleden right down to the ground and I for one would not be in the least bit surprised if that rival didn't loom large in the wing mirrors in the last quarter (if he goes off at an each-way price, arguably Hambleden could prove to be a safer bet.
¦ 1er. CHOICE¹ ¦:¬>Rahwaan
¦ 2nd Choice² ¦:¬>Hambleden (e/w if preferred)
¦ 3rd Choice³ ¦:¬>Showpiece
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