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Analysis & Selections by t.h.e.
r.o.o.k. - Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners; [¹ NØ.1 CHOICE], as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; [²E/W
ALTERNATIVE ] . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
CHEPSTOW
Thursday 27th December
12:35 Newport Novices' Hurdle £5000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, penalty £3757, 16 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" - our national hunt horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Jeannot de Beauchene (FR), and Keen Leader,
[are there any runners from "FUTURE WINNERS" feature?]:-:-->Ideal du Bois Beury (FR), and Glanamana,
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Juventa, Jeannot de Beauchene, Keen Leader, Ideal du Bois Beury, Glanamana, Noble Spy, and Nameless
Wonder, make most appeal in the opener on Welsh Grand National Day. Juventa ; a winner of five races over hurdles and fences in French Provinces represents the Guillaime Macaire camp, who plundered
this meeting last year. He is hard to evaluate, however at least we know he comes here in good heart having won at Bordeaux Le Bous in October. He
shouldn't be too far away, however Jeannot de Beauchene; who beat Lanmire Leader on his
British debut; Keen Leader unbeaten in two runs under rules, and Ideal du Bois Beury, [who should appreciate the step up in trip after
failing to keep tabs with Island Sound] may just be too good. If the forecast proves to be accurate this could be run in testing conditions, and that would suit Keen Leader most
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Keen Leader
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Ideal du Bois Beury (FR)
1:10 Ray Horton Memorial H'cap Chase £15000 added, 5yo plus, 2m 3f 110yds, penalty £10270, 10 runners
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" - our national hunt horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Iris Bleu (FR) , and Somemanforoneman,
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Extra Jack, In The Blood, Iris Bleu, Zabadi, Norski Lad, Somemanforoneman, Kurakka, and Picket Piece, all have chances of sorts in the
second. Iris Bleu has come up against progressive types in his most recent starts and should go well again, however his string of seconds do give rise to concerns about his
resolution. That said this is one of his easiest tasks of late, and a reproduction of his
most recent efforts probably would be good enough
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Iris Bleu (FR)
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Somemanforoneman,
1:40 Welsh Finale Junior Hurdle (Gr.1) £30000 added, 3yo only, 2m 110yds, penalty £17400, 10 runners
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" - our national hunt horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Vol Solitaire (FR), and Tempo d'Or (FR),
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Live The Dream, Vol Solitaire, Quazar, Tempo d'Or, and Hawkes Run, all
have claims in the third. Live The Dream, has impressed in making all in his both her two starts under rules, and will be very hard to beat if in the same sort of form that saw her rout a useful field at ascot. In Vol Solitaire, and Tempo d'Or, I think "we" courtesy of
the One to Jump feature hold a very strong hand. I was impressed with Vol Solitaire's
win at Leicester, and am certain he will improve for the experience, however I have to side with Tempo d'Or, who has done very little wrong over obstacles and
earnt his place in the One to Jump feature, by impressing me in winning five races
on the bounce over hurdles and fences. Guillaume Macaire has a strong hand of juveniles, [Saint Des Saints; also in our One to Jump feature has impressed over both codes in Part I of the French jumps season also in our is probably the best of them] and has been planning to test the water with Tempo d'Or for a while now. He comes here on the back of a impressively win at Enghien, where he left Comandante in his wake and has good prospects of following up last year's triumph with Jair du Cochet.
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Tempo d'Or (FR),
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Vol Solitaire (FR),
2:15 Coral Eurobet Welsh National Showcase H'cap Steeplechase (Gr.3) £75000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 5f 110yds, penalty £43500, 15 runners
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->This race to some extent has been ruined by the presence of See More Business, who has kept a few of the runners a little too far out of the handicap than ideal. He is an
interesting participant, as personally I wouldnt have thought that he was an ideal horse for
the race, however assuming that he has recovered from his bone- crunching fall here in
the Rehearsal Chase must be close. The same comments apply to Whats Up Boys and Take Control; first and third in the
Hennessy Gold Cup. Take Control off of 10-5 makes more appeal if he can get into a
rhythm early, rather than bludgeon his way round the first circuit.... the forecasted
rain should assist his chances. Of the others Bindaree, Edmond, and Supreme Glory are worthy of a
mention off of their featherweights, It wouldnt be the greatest surprise if one (one more) of them made the frame, however they may have to give best to the AP McCoy/Martin Pipe combo
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Take Control
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Supreme Glory
2:50 Chepstow 'Championship Bumper' Stakes - [A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race] (Gr. 2) £15000 added, 4, 5 and 6yo, 2m 110yds, penalty £9000, 9 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[are there any runners from "ONE TO JUMP" - our national hunt horses to follow feature?]:-:-->Tees Components
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->Calling Brave, Supreme Hill, Tees Components, Mine's A Murphy's, Stennikov, and Supreme Quest, all have claims in the fifth however if
Calling Brave is in the same sort of form which resulted in him outclassing a big field at Aintree then this race will be well within his compass
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Calling Brave
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Mine's A Murphy's
3:20 Tintern Abbey Novices' Steeplechase £6000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 3f 110yds, penalty £4163.25, 4 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->I haven't been impressed with Silence Reigns' jumping thus far
over fences, and he might be worth taking on here. Harry Harestone has the make and shape of a chaser, and should improve as
the season progresses, however I've seen enough of Bacchus du Berlais' recent form to
believe that a clear round of jumping will see him going close here .. He ran respectably
behind Bingo Bell at Auteuil in a Grade 3 chase, and if he replicates that effort should be capable of taking this ... he is the
selection
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Bacchus du Berlais (FR)
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->
3:50 Severn Bridge H'cap Hurdle £5000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 110yds, penalty £3484, 11 runners.
[¥____¥: THE FURLONG POLE :¥____¥]
[t.h.e. r.o.o.k]:-:-->An open race, Irish Fashion, Open Ground, Asparagus, Protector, Orsuno, Karadin, Sir Walter, Drama King, all have chances. Asparagus appeals despite top weight. He impressed me when making all to win at Uttoxeter at the beginning of the month and may be able to do the same here. Irish Fashion is the main danger,
[¹nø.1 choice]:-:-->Asparagus
[²e/w alternative]:-:-->Orsuno (GER)
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