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Analysis & Selections by
.t.h.e. r.o.o.k.
Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
CHEPSTOW
Friday 27th December
The going is currently Heavy with rain forecast overnight. The meeting will need to pass an early morning inspection to go ahead.
(¯¯ Iª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 12:35 Newport Novices' Hurdle. 2m. 4f. 1st - £4,043 , 2nd - £1,229 , 3rd - £607 , 4th - £296 15Declared
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»- Bolt Action
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- The Welsh National meeting opens with a Novice event over 2 1/2 miles. Of the horses declared to run, Bolt Action,
Liberdal, Brewster, King Bee, Freeline Fantasy, Lord Of Illusion, Silver Tarn, Robber and Buckskin Lad would appear to have the best claims. I respect the claims of Liberdal who has shown promise in his starts in France, however I am very sweet on the claims of Bolt Action (who's mother was the useful staying chaser Ebony Jane) who was very impressive when winning his only start in a maiden point-to-point at Buckfastleigh in February. He is bred to be a decent chaser and hopefully he can fulfill promise; in the meantime this looks a good opportunity for him to get his first win under rules. One to note for future reference is Lord Of Illusion - a promising second on his most recent start in an Irish point-to-point. He could develop into a nice Novice Chaser next term and is worth keeping an eye on, especially if the market speaks favourably.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Bolt Action
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Liberdal
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Lord Of Illusion (e/w)
(¯¯ IIª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:10 Chepstow Novices' Steeple-ch. 2m. 3f. 110yds. 1st - £4,843 , 2nd - £1,475 , 3rd - £730 , 4th - £358 7Declared
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»- Montreal (FR) and Iverain (FR).
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Seven horses have been declared for the second race on the card. Of these, Montreal, Iverain, Dungarvans Choice, Ibal and Briar's Mist are the only ones that can be
realistically entertained. Iverain (a well-beaten fourth behind Sir Rembrandt
last time out at Cheltenham over 3m1f) and Dungarvans Choice (a promising second over course and distance on his chasing bow) have definite claims. However, I will be hoping that Montreal lands the prize. Connections have always held this horse in high regard believing that he would be one day decent over the larger obstacles and there was plenty to like about the way he won on his debut at Exeter where he stayed on to beat Sharif with more in hand than the eventual winning distance of 3 1/2 lengths might suggest. If he puts in a clear round, he should be hard to beat here.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Montreal
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Iverain
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Dungarvans Choice
(¯¯ IIIª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 1:45 Finale Juvenile Hurdle [gr. 1] 2m. 110yds. 1st - £20,880 , 2nd - £7,820 , 3rd - £3,860 , 4th - £1,700 8Declared
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»- Fast Mix (FR) and Le Duc (FR).
[ ("FUTURE WINNERS - NATIONAL HUNT") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "future winners" our feature which notes horses to watch for follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»-Lougaroo (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- Eight runners have been declared for this Grade 1 Hurdle which many will hope throws out a candidate to challenge current Triumph Hurdle market leader Saint Cyr.
Realistically, Lilium De Cotte, Fast Mix, Nas Na Riogh, Lewis Island, Lougaroo and Le Duc would appear to have the best claims. Lilium De Cotte and Nas Na Riogh are arguably the form horses going into this having dead-heated for second prize behind Don Fernando at Cheltenham. I don't think there will be much to choose between these two again here. However, I would prefer Lilium De Cotte particularly if his rider is more patient. That might not be enough however to beat Fast Mix, Lewis Island and Lougaroo who each come into this race on the back of impressive wide-margin successes. Although he didn't jump well, Fast Mix was particularly impressive on his debut at Newbury and is in my view the most likely home winner of this prize. However, Lougaroo wasn't far behind when demolishing his rivals on his first start at one of the French premier courses. I'll take a chance on Lougaroo to cause a surprise, at (hopefully) a nice price.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Lougaroo
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Fast Mix
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Lilium De Cotte
(¯¯ IVª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:15 Ray Horton Memorial Steeple-ch. [H 'cap] 2m. 3f. 110yds. 1st - £8,736 , 2nd - £2,466 , 3rd - £1,218 , 4th - £594 3Declared
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A disappointing turnout for the fourth race which arguably can be won by any of these. If Claymore returned to the form shown when winning at Uttoxeter at the end of November, he would go very close here. He did however disappoint last time out at Haydock and he would need to have shown me his Uttoxeter form for me to want to oppose Asador, already a winner this season over course and distance who has conditions in which he will revel. If he puts in a clear round, I'll be surprised if he gets turned over.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Asador
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Claymore
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Harvis
(¯¯ Vª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 2:50 Coral Welsh National Showcase [H 'cap] (Steeple-ch.) [gr. 3] 3m. 5f. 110yds. 1st - £43,500 , 2nd - £16,450 , 3rd - £8,200 , 4th - £3,700 17Declared
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»- Bounce Back (USA).
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A real stamina slog comes up next. Having gone through the form, I narrowed it down to Gunner Welburn, The Bunny Boiler, Chives, Rugged River, It's Himself, Supreme Glory, Bounce Back, Frosty Canyon, Native Buck, Take Control and The Quads. Gunner Welburn and The Bunny Boiler currently head the market. Gunner Welburn owes his position as favourite to his win here over 3 miles three weeks ago. He was particularly impressive that day and looks well-treated, running off a mark of 123, however as much as I believe he should run a big race I was always worried about his ability to stay out extreme distances when he ran in Hunter Chases and despite having an attractive weight, he might not quite see this trip out. That comment does not apply to The Bunny Boiler who of course won the Midlands and Irish Nationals at the end of last season. He has conditions to suit and will no doubt attempt to exploit any stamina weaknesses in his rivals. He is sure to give a good account of himself as should Chives (a good 2nd on his reappearance at Haydock) and last year's winner Supreme Glory who stayed on nicely to finish 4th to See More Business here 3 weeks ago. I'm going to sidestep all of these and take a chance with It's Himself. This former useful Hunter Chaser has run some good races in handicap company last season. He hasn't raced since beating Takagi in a Novice Handicap Chase at Punchestown in April. However, he'll have been laid out for this - he should go on the ground and races off a nice mark today and has the services of Timmy Murphy who will switch him off and hopefully get him into a
rhythm before creeping into the race on the second circuit. At each way odds he is virtually a bet to nothing.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- It's Himself (e/w)
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Gunner Welburn
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- The Bunny Boiler
¦ 4th place?ª ¦:¬>- Bounce Back
(¯¯ VIª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 3:20 'Championship' Stakes Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race. [gr. 2] 2m. 110yds. 1st - £9,600 , 2nd - £3,630 , 3rd - £1,790 , 4th - £830 10Declared
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[ ("ONE TO JUMP") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "One To Jump 2003" our feature which; each season, provides a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»-Armaguedon (FR).
[ ("FUTURE WINNERS - NATIONAL HUNT") 2002/3 ~~ Are there any horses from "future winners" our feature which notes horses to watch for follow during the current national hunt season? ]:¬»-Tinoveritas (FR)
¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- The horses to concentrate on in the penultimate race on the card are He's The Boss, Armaguedon, Control Man, Tinoveritas and Villa. Armageddon will be expected to oblige here having won both starts this term at Newcastle and most recently at Ayr in the manner of a good horse. He will probably
prevail, however don't be surprised if Tinoveritas improves significantly on his debut run at Exeter behind Enitsag
(greenness may have cost him the race) and makes a race of it here.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- Armaguedon
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Tinoveritas
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Villa
(¯¯ VIIª¯ CHEPSTOW¯¯¯)¯¯¯ »- 3:50 Haverfordwest Hurdle [H 'cap] 2m. 110yds. 1st - £3,786 , 2nd - £1,145 , 3rd - £560 , 4th - £268 7Declared
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¦ .t.h.e. .r.o.o.k. ¦:¬>- A trappy finale to the card in which a case can be made for Ifrane
Balima, Roman King, General, Silk Trader, Open Ground, Nick's Choice and Lawz. I prefer General, who
didn't run too badly behind Never at Newbury a month ago.
¦ 1° ~ THE WINNER?¹ ¦:¬>- General,
¦ 2nd place?² ¦:¬>- Ifrane Balima,
¦ 3rd place?³ ¦:¬>- Nick's Choice,
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