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LONGCHAMP
Sunday 1st October
12:55 Prix du Rond-Point-Casino la Rochelle Barriere (Group 2) (3yo+)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Kingsalsa, Penny's Gold, Kabool, Sugarfoot, and Danzigaway are the major players in the opener on Longchamp's card. I doubt there's much between these in truth, but I marginally prefer the look of Kingsalsa's form [2nd to Indian Lodge in the Prix de Moulin last time out] than the others mentioned
No*1 Choice ~ Kingsalsa
(E/W) Alt. ~ Danzigaway
1:25 Prix du Groupe Lucien Barriere (Handicap) (4yo+)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ My knowledge of French handicap form is limited, however Groupinsky's credential's appeal and he gets the call
No*1 Choice ~ Groupinsky
(E/W) Alt. ~ Stop By
2:00 Prix Marcel Boussac Criterium des Pouliches-Royal Barriere (Group 1)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Karasta, Ascension, and Green Minstrel, look the likeliest to take the third race. FURLONG TO GO has thus far suggested Karasta in both of her starts, and in truth such is the highness that we hold her, that we will be surprised if she gets turned over. Make no mistake though this is no pushover, whilst her May Hill form is top class, Ascension and Green Minstrel have demonstrated thus far that also possess above average credentials ... this may a close call
No*1 Choice ~ Karasta [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ Bring Plenty, may be a good price on the pari-mutuel [not beaten very far by Karasta in the May Hill]
2:35 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp-Majestic Barriere (Group 1)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ This is a fascinating race, partly because the best sprinters this term, Agnes World and Nuclear Debate are absent, but more so because of the presence of the two year olds Superstar Leo and Iron Mask. Frankly, I can se both of these putting in personal bests here without maybe quite being good enough, but both should not be dismissed. Of the others, Bertolini, Sampower Star, Pipalong, and Watching, are much of a muchness and only Pipalong of these would appeal if the heavens have opened overnight. I think it is worth taking a chance with the improver Namid (E/W) who is a real imposing individual who may have a bit to find on the formbook (just pipped Tedburrow over 6furlongs last time out) but strongly suggests that he is capable of such improvement.... or that's the hope anyway
No*1 Choice ~ Namid (E/W)
Alt. ~ Iron Mask
LONG*SHOT ~ Perryston View
3:20 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Lucien Barriere (Group 1) Winner £576,369.00
The Runners;
1 Russian Hope H-A Pantall 5 9-5
The oldest horse in the race at five. From looking at his record, whilst he isn't in the same league as Montjeu and Sinndar, he does have an excellent record [10 victories in 16 starts]. He battled well to pip Daring Miss at Deauville last month, making all in the process. As he likes to front run, you'd think he'd be unlikely to get things his own way with a pacemaker in the field and could be found out by the speed horses. That said he might help Sinndar's cause more than Montjeu.
2 Montjeu J E Hammond 4 9-5
Hot favourite to become the first horse since Alleged in 1978 to retain his Longchamp crown, he has looked awesome this season winning all his starts, including victory in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes in July. His prep race for this came in the Prix Foy earlier in the month. John Hammond's star can quicken off a fast or slow pace and prefers cut in the ground so conditions look ideal. Up til that effort, he appeared to be the best of the bunch, so surely if he turns up fit and hearty he must go close
3 Daring Miss A Fabre 4 9-2
Not familiar with this filly however she has finished out of the first two just twice in nine runs and put up a lifetime's best performance in claiming the Grand Prix de Chantilly in June beating stablemate First Magnitude. She was however brushed aside by Montjeu at Saint Cloud in June and is up against it meeting that rival on identical terms. She is yet to win a Group One race.
4 Raypour John M Oxx 3 8-11
One of the major players in the race.... I kid not. Without it the race may be a complete anti climax. He's performed this role in three of his last four runs, with distinction. Despite running well when a no-hoper in the Irish Derby and winning a small race at the Curragh last month it would be a major surprise if he were to figure at the business end of the race, but by then he may have helped decide it.
5 Sinndar John M Oxx 3 8-11
Sinndar showed all his staying power to see-off Sakhee in the Epsom Derby with the pair five lengths clear. John Oxx's three-year-old then annihilated the Irish Derby field before victory number six out of seven in the Prix Niel over course and distance three weeks ago. Raypour ensures that the strong pace he requires is guaranteed. A hardy battler with a touch of real class, he isn't going to lie down without making it hurt.
6 Hightori P Demercastel 3 8-11
Hightori He was a high-class two-year-old registering three wins including a Group Three success at Saint Cloud. He recently returned to the track from a 10-month break to win a Group Three at Longchamp last time. That is respectable form, but this is a huge step up in class, and he will be found wanting.
7 Samum A Schutz 3 8-11
The big hope of Germany, is unbeaten in six starts in his native country including the German Derby where he drew five lengths clear of a 19-runner field. Arguably he signalled his entrance to the international arena in winning a valuable Group One at Baden-Baden at the start of the month, with horses such as Daliapour, Holding Court, and Fruits of Love behind him. Samum is improving all the time and will give a good account of himself.
8 Hesiode J-C Rouget 3 8-11b
Hesiode has been running in a lot of the top French races this season with a modicum of success. I cannot see him getting placed.
9 Volvoreta C Lerner 3 8-8
Another underestimated player with a good chance, this filly appreciated the step up to the Arc distance when putting in an impressive performance to beat a high quality field in the Prix Vermeille last time, posting a decent time in the process. The French-trained three-year-old had been off the track for three months before that race over course and distance where she quickened clear to see off a high quality field. She is left out of calculations at your peril
10 Egyptband Mme C Head 3 8-8
Egyptband is a lightly raced filly who renews rivalry with Volvoreta with the score between the pair 1-1. Had three straight wins before taking third behind Volvoreta at the Arc trials three weeks ago on her first attempt at the distance. As she is trained by Criquette Head, an ultra-shrewd trainer, she is worth considering, as I cannot believe she would take on Volvoreta again unless she thought that she could reverse placings.
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ A rather predictable race, but hopefully a great spectacle. It is interesting listening to the view of some who believe that pacemakers are a bad thing... can you imagine this race without Raypour, in it... very poor pace Sinndar forced to run an unnatural race to try and inject some pace in the race and being completely done for toe by Montjeu up the straight... valid comments can be made about horses not running on their merits, but I'm really glad that there is one here. Actually Russian Hope and Raypour should at least ensure that the early part of the race is strong, I'd be surprised if Sinndar sat further back than fourth. There is another interesting point to be made here.
Flick through your mind at how people pointed out how badly Sinndar travelled in the Irish Derby, and use this and a means to suggest that he doesn't have the speed to lie up. Since the horse is trained on the Curragh, and is a lazy worker at home, it is worth considering that if that's why you don't like the horse that he's travelled a lot better through his other races, particularly last time in the Prix Niel
Sinndar is quite clearly improving, and whilst Montjeu is obviously top class, he hasn't beaten a decent three year old this term, and may find this a difficult assignment, in many ways his outside draw wont help as this horse needs to drop his bridle early, an inside draw would have been better
If you want to know who most confident see which horse changes tactics first. Will Sinndar make a very long strike for home, or will Montjeu pay Sinndar the ultimate respect and sit on his tail ...
If Raypour makes them hurt, as he did in the Irish Derby, we could see Sinndar serving it up to Montjeu... Volvoreta and Samun down the final straight, each of these desperately trying to secure glory.... I think tactically Sinndar holds the aces, and whilst he might not be the best horse, in my view he is in the best position to win
No*1 Choice ~ Sinndar
(E/W) Alt. ~ Volvoreta
4:05 Prix de L'Opera-Hotel du Lac Barriere (Group 1)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Petrushka and Love Devine clash again in the Prix de L'Opera. Whilst there is no doubt that Love Devine is a good filly Petrushka is improving at a great rate of knots, and looks the one to be on here. America flopped in America last time out but is better than that and can also go well
No*1 Choice ~ Petrushka [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ America
4:40 Prix du Cadran-Fouquet's Barriere (Group 1) (4yo+)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ This marathon trip is right up Enzeli's street, and if he performs here as well here as he did in the Doncaster Cup he will be hard to beat... he has to be the choice. Tajoun and San Sebastian look to have strong eachway claims on their form in this event last year
No*1 Choice ~ Enzeli
(E/W) Alt. ~ San Sebastian
Can Daylami win the Arc de Triomphe ?
Arc de Triomphe Preview... Who’ll win this weekend’s big Race
1 October 1999
Can Daylami win the Arc de Triomphe ?
Although he questionably been this season’s middle distance horse of the season, is Daylami up for his latest challenge at Longchamp this weekend. Here is our review of the probable entries
Dark Moondancer - 4111; formally with Peter Chappel-Hyam has definitely improved since moving to Alain de Royer Dupre’s stables and has been plundering Group races in Europe without taking on top flight opposition, has placed claims if the ground were to dry out
Sunshine Street - 24544; Whilst he is an honorable sort, he is not up to this grade, anyway well held by several of these of all known form
Daylami - 52111; hard to fathom how he got beat by Shiva first time out, has only really started to get the recognition his record deserves, and has posted two of his best performances in comprehensively winning the King George at Ascot and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, he has outstanding claims, my only concern is that unlike his other runs which were mapped out, this race is a ‘opportunity too tempting’ and therefore his preparation may not be as it should be
High-Rise 27- 82; Surprised by Godolphin’s comments that he doesn’t like soft ground since he won on it at Pontefract before winning the Derby, He ran well before lack of fitness told close home last time out, although he is clearly their second string might run well if lining up
Lord of Men - 1136; Daylami’s pacemaker and therefore that’s as much consideration as he should get
Dream Well - 23313; Is currently not a certain starter, but does have claims on bits of his form both this season and last term, saying that he appears well held by Daylami on both Coronation Cup, and Irish Champion Form.
Croco Rouge- 3173; Has always threatened to win a ‘top draw performer’ but has failed more often than not in this company. 20/1+ is a big price for a horse with his ability but there is no guarantee he’ll ‘perform’ on the big stage
Courteous 620-1; Is currently not a certain starter, and whilst a useful sort, the heavens will have to stay open for this mudlark to realistically figure in the finish
Albaran [Nor] -55131; Whilst my knowledge is ‘sketchy’ I am fairly confident that this horse’s form isn’t up to this challenge,... famous last words !!!!!
Tiger Hill -12211; Placed last year and is peerless in Germany , he ran well to be placed last term, and whilst he doesn’t look good enough it wouldn’t surprise me if he were placed again
El Condor Pasa -211; One of the major contenders, Last season’s Japan Cup winner has impressed many in France in his two victories there this season. Has serious claims, but his chance has been devalued by the soft ground
Greek Dance -5712; Whilst he has run well this term, the fact Royal Anthem humbled him at York suggests that he has something to find to win at this level
Leggera 20-51; Ran well to be place last season however she didn’t impress me in struggling to win at Ayr last time. Whilst the ground is in her favour I think she has something to find this time around
Borgia [GER] -24552; Similar type to Sunshine Street; as she is consistent but fails to cut it at this level, saying this she did make El Condor Pasa work hard last time out, so 25/1 [or bigger on the Pari-mutuel] might tempt some
Moteck-3953; Is currently not a certain starter, and anyway has no chance as he likely to be El Condor Pasa’s pacemaker
Fantastic Light -43211; Has run well all season, and lowered High Rise’s colours last time out, as he likes the ground he should run well, but victory for him doesn’t immediately spring to mind
Genghis Khan -19105; Is currently not a certain starter, and whilst a useful sort, he is more likely to win the Triumph Hurdle than this one
Nowhere to Exit -11125; Whilst he is clearly a useful 3 year old and has his ground he appears well held by Montjeu on French Derby form, and also has a disappointing run at York to overcome
Montjeu -12111; A likable sort, I was one of those punter who had a voucher for 16/1 on him winning the Derby so I feel he owes me !!!!!. There are many judges who weren’t impressed by his last run, but he was set a big question in trying to catch Bienamado up Longchamp’s short straight, only just managing that despite hanging because of the firm ground that day. Has his ground and has major claims
Bienamado-522; Probably is flattered by his last run behind Montjeu, but on that run should run well if he acts on the ground ....Is currently not a certain starter
Cerulean Sky -61673; Is currently not a certain starter, and whilst a useful sort, she would have to improve to figure in the finish
Darayba -21111; Is currently not a certain starter, because of the ground, but is probably the best middle distance three year old filly this season. Put up a good performance, and has chances if taking her chance
Flamingo Road -11332; One of Germany’s best three year , probably isn’t quick good enough, but might run better than he odds indicate he will
L’Olympique -1075; Is currently not a certain starter, and whilst a useful sort, he would have to improve to figure in the finish
Summary
This looks a good renewal, which is guaranteed to be strongly run. Why there are still some who say Daylami doesn’t truly stay this trip is beyond me, particularly after his last two performances, however as keen as I am, I am not convinced this was an intended target, and therefore is not as tempting a bet as in his previous starts, however saying this he must go close with luck in running. I also like El Condor Pasa, but the ground may have gone against him
Montjeu does have claims, but I have long since held the view that the older horses are better than the current classic crop, therefore I cannot find 7/4 on him a tempting offer, remember he still hasn’t run against his seniors. Despite these negative vibes on these probably will win, on the ground I have to pick Daylami.
The each-way bet might turn out to be El Condor Pasa, make no mistake, he can win this, the current ground is against him, he might therefore drift above his current 5/1 price.
If you are looking for a long shot to do each then any of Tiger Hill, Croco Rouge, and Dream Well appeal
Happy Punting
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