| |
The
Furlong Pole,
The Furlong Pole,
comments daily on British racing at his Web site, www.furlongtogo.co.uk,
providing analysis, race reviews and selections for flat, jump and
point-to-point racing.
The Joys and
Differences of English Racing
27 JUN 2000 --
Conroy Robertson
For me, that's a
personal thing. I've always loved horses for as long as I can remember. My
dad got me into it. I always found his reactions to success and failure
fascinating. It's amazing what people say and do when a race is on!
Jump racing
always appealed to me. I appreciate the majesty of a top-class animal
galloping on the flat, but there is something about watching the drama
that every day unfolds during a jump race that will always hold my
attention.
In no way do I
mean that as a criticism of your racing stateside. I just think one of the
appeals of the British scene is its diversity. Last week, we had the pomp
and circumstance that is Royal Ascot, and Derby Day. On the same week, we
had race meetings at Southwell (on the all-weather), Worcester (over
jumps) and Musselburgh (by the North Sea).
There are the
major jumping Festivals at Aintree, Cheltenham, Punchestown and Galway,
which attract a totally different, more robust and hardy following than
would Royal Ascot.
The 59 courses in
the United Kingdom also could not be more diverse. The tracks in England
are more undulating than those I've ever been made aware of in the U.S.A.
Over here, there
are left- or right-handed courses, some tight, others wide-open, still
others sharp and twisty, and still others long and galloping. Two courses
are figure-eight, one of which is over jumps.
I'd single out
Aintree for the uniqueness of the national fences. Cheltenham, Towcester,
Hexham and Carlisle are very testing tracks with stiff finishes. From the
stands you appreciate the rise in gradient all the way up the home
straight. The more adaptable a horse is, the more likely, I'd argue, its
chances of success.
It isn't
uncommon, as I'm sure is the case in the States, for horses to show their
best at particular tracks, probably because of the surfaces. That is the
case over here.
That will become
more apparent over the coming months.
Last update: 27
JUN 2000
Kildangan
Stud Irish Oaks
(Group
1)
The
Runners are;
AMETHYST
ran creditably in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas without quite
being good enough to take one. Disappointing when last of 9, 19l behind
Crimplene at Ascot last time out, and wouldn't be certain to stay this
trip. Interesting if she does though.
INFORAPENNY is a nice filly who if well placed will win her races since
joining Richard Fahey, however her, 5th of 9, 9l behind Littlepacepaddocks
at Newbury probably accurately reflects her chances
KALYPSO KATIE: is almost impossible to fault this term. A brave winner of
the Musidora at York when in season, she lost nothing in defeat when
finishing 2nd of 16, 2l behind Love Divine in the English Oaks. She is
bound to go well, the only slight doubt I have would be if this were run
at a strong pace. I'm not 100% certain she'd get home (Though I could say
that about quite a few of these)
LITTLEPACEPADDOCKS: is a lovely big sister to Yavana's Pace. She obviously
has the same qualities as her brother, which she demonstrated to such good
effect at Newbury last time. After losing her position 5f out, she
knuckled down in the last quarter to beat Eurolink Raindance by a neck,
giving that she could have extended that supremacy over further. An
eachway possible
MELIKAH: There isn't probably much to choose between Melikah and Kalypso
Katie judged on Melikah's performance in the Epsom Oaks. Having been
outpaced over 3f out, she ran on well inside the last quarter to finish
1/2l behind Kalypso Katie. She may well step up on that effort but would
have benefited from having some guaranteed pace in the race
MILETRIAN left all previously form behind her when winning the Ribblesdale
Stakes at Royal Ascot beating Teggiano by 1 1/2l, and strictly on the
formbook holds that filly. The key to that performance was the pace, and
unless that occurs again in this I'm not confident that she'll be good
enough t o figure in this
PETRUSHKA in truth has been slightly disappointing since her impressive
win at Newmarket first time out. There may have been a valid excuse in the
1000 Guineas when she was in season, and maybe a 4length 4th behind Love
Divine at in the Oaks gives her a chance of reversing form with Kalypso
Katie and Melikah. I can't help but feel that some pace would aid that
though. If it occurs, she may go close.
PRESELI improved for stepping up in trip when just failing to catch Lady
Upstage at Curragh over 1m 2f. She needs to step up on that to be able to
figure her
TEGGIANO: ran well on her reappearance in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot
only being run out of it close home by Miletrian. Im certain she'll step
up on that effort but she may need pace in this to ensure her of any
chance of beating the principles
THEORETICALLY's 6th of 13, 6l behind Crimplene in the Irish 1000 Guineas
here is a good effort, however she'll need to step up on that if she is to
win.
The 4 Long Pole ~
This is difficult to predict, as I would have thought that several of
these don't want this race to turn into a mile sprint.
Again it surprises me that some of these trainers haven't adequately
ensured that their mounts have been given every conceivable chance to
succeed. I wouldn't have thought that Teggiano was in the field to aid
Melikah's chances. I wouldn't suggest it would stop them winning but
Littlepacepaddocks, Petruskha, Miletran, and Melikah aren't going to help
but a dawdle followed by a quick injection of pace.
It is also conceivable that Amethyst, Preseli and Theoretically, who
appears to have no realistic chance on the book, now should be considered
as interesting outsiders, which place chances, should nobody go on, and if
you wanted to have a fun bet, it could well be on these
I'll gamble that someone does go on and make it a sensible pace (Miletran,
or even Teggiano may become the sacrificial lambs). Should this happen
then I suspect Kalypso Katie may be found wanting (if they don't she'll be
very hard to beat).
Petruskha did make a lot of ground up in the final quarter of the Oaks,
and on this stayers track, may get the better of Melikah, and
Littleplacepaddocks, the latter stepping up on previous efforts at this
trip
No* 1 CHOICE ~ Petruskha
E/W Alt. ~ Littleplacepaddocks
Longshot? ~ Theoretically
The
Furlong Pole
The Furlong Pole,
comments daily on British racing at his Web site, www.furlongtogo.co.uk,
providing analysis, race reviews and selections for flat, jump and
point-to-point racing.
A Continental's
View of the Irish Derby by The Furlong Pole
30 JUN 2000 --
Conroy Robertson
The Curragh plays
host to the Irish Derby for three-year-olds at a mile and half. All horses
carry nine stone, and they'll go to the post at 4 p.m. local time in
Ireland.
Twelve horses
have stood their ground at the five-day entry stage in an intriguing
renewal of the Irish Derby. This race brings together the tempting
prospect of a clash between the English Derby winner Sinndar and the
French Derby winner Holding Court, as well as King's Best, who steps up in
distance after a breathtaking victory in our first classic of the season,
the 2000 Guineas over a mile. The entries are:
[1] 1-16 Ciro
(USA) (Trainer: A P O'Brien) Ciro looked good when winning the Group 1
Prix Lupin at Longchamp in May, but was never really competitive behind
Holding Court in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby). If that is as
good as he is, he is going to struggle to reverse placings here.
[2] -211
Glyndebourne (Trainer: A P O'Brien) Unraced at 2, Glyndebourne is one of
four entries in the race for Aiden O'Brien. Whilst his form does not
immediately grab you (he won the 10- furlong Gallinule Stakes at this
course last time out, finishing in front of Media Puzzle), he does give
the impression that he is still on the upgrade, and should give a good
account of himself here.
[3] 8-11 Holding
Court (GB) (Trainer: M.A.Jarvis (in GB)) Holding Court has really captured
our imaginations this term, with three good performances at Haydock and
Longchamp, culminating with his easy success in the French Derby. Two
things strike you immediately, though. As brilliant as he was in this
race, that performance, and his best efforts thus far, have been on heavy
ground, or ground with appreciable cut in it, and his chances could be
seriously affected by the conditions. The other is a statistic. Although I
am personally not one who takes great notice of them, it is the case that
the last four times the English Derby winner and the French Derby winner
have met in the Irish Derby, the English Derby winner has won three of
those four. One to consider.
[4] 5-21 King's
Best (USA) (Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute (in GB)) How we dreamed and hoped
that King's Best might be a Triple Crown winner after his brilliant win in
the 2000 Guineas. Unfortunately, injury put pay to his bid for the second
leg. The form of the race has since been franked by second-place finisher
Giant's Causeway's win at Royal Ascot. Although King's Best is bred to get
the trip, he shows so much speed that you do wonder whether he actually
will -- or at least I do, anyway!
[5] -125 Korasoun
(Trainer: John M Oxx) Korasoun probably is the second-best of the three
entries saddled by John Oxx in this race. Korasoun doesn't look good
enough on paper, and is probably only in the race pick up place-prize
money
[6] -113 Media
Puzzle (USA) (Trainer: D K Weld) Media Puzzle was, for a while, being
talked about as a possible English Derby horse, after wins at The Curragh
and Cork (on the latest occasion beating Glyndebourne, who was making his
debut). Glyndebourne has since reversed placings with him over 10
furlongs, and on that basis appears well held by several of these, so it
is interesting that he is still in the race. I suspect that this horse may
need 12 furlongs to be at his best, and I suspect his connections
obviously feel the same way. He is up to making a better showing than his
price would suggest.
[7] -130 Muakaad
(GB) (Trainer: D K Weld) Mukaad is another strange declaration. He was
another who never really got competitive behind Holding Court in the
French Derby, and had previously been well beaten by Sinndar at
Leopardstown. If that is as good as he is, he is going to struggle to
reverse placings here with these two; however, since there appears to be a
strong pace guaranteed, it may be the case that he will be ridden to get
home, therefore might wind up with a respectable placing.
[8] -2262 Raypour
(Trainer: John M Oxx) Raypour has no realistic chance of winning this, and
is surely in the race only to set the pace for Sinndar.
[9] 1-41
Shakespeare (Trainer: A P O'Brien) If ever a horse needed to repay his
owners, it's this one. Four million anything -- dollars, pounds, punts --
is a lot to spend on a "dud." Unfortunately having been labelled
with that pricetag, Shakespeare is one we unfairly have expected great
things from. Bar one poor run this term at Leopardstown behind Sinndar, it
is actually hard to fault him. After a cheeky win at the Curragh last
July, he reappeared behind Sinndar at Leopardstown in April, finishing
more than 30 lengths behind him. Since it is recorded that he finished
distressed that day, that run is best overlooked. Having been given a
while to get over that effort, he trounced inferior opposition at Cork 20
days ago. The Irish Derby is his first effort at 12 furlongs, but I have
no doubt that he'll get it. Keep him in the back of your mind.
[10] -531 Shoal
Creek (Trainer: A P O'Brien) I don't understand why Shoal Creek has been
left in, other to make sure that Aiden O'Brien runners have the right pace
for them. He has no chance of winning this.
[11] -211 Sinndar
(Trainer: John M Oxx) Sinndar must go well here. After a gallant effort
trying to concede seven pounds (weight, not currency) to Grand Finale at
Leopardstown on his reappearance in April, he has improved on that with a
good performance back at Leopardstown, culminating with his win in our
Derby. The most striking quality of Sinndar is his sheer guts. He never
strikes me as though he'll ever win a race by a wide margin. But as he
showed us then, when he was asked for his effort, you always knew from two
out that he was going to outfight Sakhee, himself renowned for that
quality. If the race becomes a war of attrition, he may be really hard to
beat.
[12] -2144 Takali
(Trainer: John M Oxx) Takali is another with no realistic chance of
winning this and is another possible frontrunner for Sinndar.
Ladbrokes
Latest prices:
5/4 Sinndar
2/1 Holding Court
9/4 King's Best,
14/1 Ciro,
20/1
Glyndebourne,
25/1 Shakespeare
25/1Muakaad,
40/1 Korasoun,
66/1 Media Puzzle
100/1 Takali,
Raypour and Shoal Creek
THE 4LONG
POLE
It's fair to
suggest that the outcome of this race may be determined by the number and
use of the pacemakers entered. Three have been entered, which suggests
there is going to be a very strong pace. That seems sensible on those
trainers' parts, as I would want to test the suspect stamina of King's
Best, and at the same time try to 'upset' Holding Court's rhythm.
As good as I
suspect Holding Court is, you have to question how effective he is going
to be, given these circumstances, never mind the inconvenience of the
fast-ground conditions forecasted: a bold showing is the likeliest
outcome.
What of King's
Best? If he truly were as effective over this trip as he is at a mile,
you'd think he'd win this. Is that, however, likely? I'd doubt it.
Whilst 10
furlongs should be within his compass, he may find the last two furlongs
here stretching him, or more likely the sceptre of Sinndar draining his
reserves close home. This looks tailor-made, then, for Sinndar, the
English Derby winner, and if the race follows this pattern, he is the most
likely winner.
Looking for
others to consider? Media Puzzle and Shakespeare strike me as two others
who would appreciate how the race is likely to materialize, and could make
bold bids.
The Furlong Pole
Suggests
Winner: Sinndar
Eachway Alt:
Shakespeare
Longshot: Media
Puzzle
Last update: 30
JUN 2000
|
|
