| |
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements.
Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each
day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even
convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones
to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
Analysis
& Selections by THE ROOK - Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs,
we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the
fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and
requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner
or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular
may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the
"ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is
the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS
- For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are
the likeliest winners; (¹
NØ.1 CHOICE ),
as well as any runners who could run well at eachway odds; (²E/W
ALTERNATIVE ) .
Any runner from our features are shown before each race's analysis.
BELMONT PARK
Saturday 27th October
6:20 Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares)
[1] Tranquillity Lake 6 year old, trained by J Canani
[2] Flute 3 year old, trained by R J Frankel
[3] Exogenous 3 year old, trained by F Schulhofer
[4] Miss Linda 4 year old, trained by J C Kimmel
[5] Two Item Limit 3 year old, trained by S Dimauro
[6] Unbridled Elaine 3 year old, trained by D Vance
[7] Queenie Belle 4 year old, trained by B Cecil
[8] Pompeii 4 year old, trained by E Walden
[9] Starrer 3 year old, trained by D Hofmans
[10] Atelier 4 year old, trained by C McGaughey III
[11] Critical Eye 4 year old, trained by S Schwartz
[12] Spain 4 year old, trained by D Wayne Lukas
[13] Fleet Renee 3 year old, trained by M Dickinson
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Flute, Exogenous; Fleet Renee; Spain; Tranquility Lake; and Miss Linda; appear to be the likeliest winners of the Distaff. Flute, a dual Grade 1 winner and Exogenous appear to be closely matched on their recent meeting here. on that occasion, Exogenous won the battle by 1 1/4 lengths, however she doesn't appear to be the easiest of rides, and whilst she has the ability to take this, may be one to avoid taking a short price on. Flute's reliability gives her a good chance of reversing form, and despite her trainer's poor record appears the to be the best bet. Amongst the others Spain, a former winner at the meeting should also go well, having found her form at the right time when finishing behind Flute, and Exogenous here last time out. the same comment applies to Miss Linda a winner of Grade 1 events on the turf and dirt in her native Argentina. her victory in the Spinster Stakes last time appears to have been in a decent time and on balance she appear to possibly represent some value at European odds
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Flute
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Miss Linda (ARG)
6:55 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo)
[1] Habibti 2 year old, trained by B Baffert
[2] Bella Bellucci 2 year old, trained by N Drysdale
[3] Jealous Forum 2 year old, trained by M Casse
[4] Sophisticat 2 year old, trained by A O'Brien in Ireland
[5] You 2 year old, trained by R J Frankel
[6] Sheastonecoldfox 2 year old, trained by M A Ferraro
[7] Imperial Gesture 2 year old, trained by E Harty
[8] Take Charge Lady 2 year old, trained by K McPeek
[9] Tempera 2 year old, trained by E Harty
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Sophisticat, gives Europe some interest in the second, however whilst she has the ability to perform creditably, I'd be looking amongst You; Habibti; Bella Bellucci, and Tempera for the winner. You appears to be a very useful filly, having earned impressive speed figures when winning the Adironrack Stakes at Saratoga over 6 1/2 furlongs. if she can produce that sort of performance over this trip she'd have outstanding claims, however the trip must be a big 'if' especially as she may be taking on early stretching her potential to stay even more. Habibti; and Bella Bellucci have solid form and are likely to be ridden off of the pace. this unbeaten pair are likely to be running on up the final straight and it may be that Habibti, a winner of a Grade 1 event at Del Mar last time over 7furlongs may outlast her rivals here. Imperial Gesture; a staying on second to Tali'sluckybusride at Santa Anita over a mile last time out looks the best eachway alternative
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Habibti;
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Imperial Gesture
7:35 Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+)
[1] Forbidden Apple 6 year old, trained by C Clement
[2] Navesink 3 year old, trained by A Goldberg
[3] Noverre 3 year old, trained by S bin Suroor
[4] Bach 4 year old, trained by A P O'Brien
[5] Balto Star 3 year old, trained by T Pletcher
[6] City Zip 3 year old, trained by L Rice
[7] Express Tour 3 year old, trained by S Bin Suroor
[8] Affirmed Success 7 year old, trained by R Schosberg
[9] Sarafan 4 year old, trained by N Drysdale
[10] Brahms 4 year old, trained by W E Walden
[11] Numerous Times 4 year old, trained by Sid Attard
[12] Val Royal 5 year old, trained by J C Canani
[13] Irish Prize 5 year old, trained by N Drysdale
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Noverre, Irish Prize, Val Royal, Affirmed Success, Forbidden Apple, Bach, Numerous Times; and Brahms, probably all have claims in an open Mile event.. I'm certain that European punters will latch onto Bach, (placed in Group 1 company this season) and Noverre (Group 1 winner), however whilst their claims are obviously, I'm not sure their style of racing is best suited to this style of racing. Noverre in particular seems best in a strongly run (end to end) affair, and may not get this here. Val Royal, impressive since moving stateside from his native France, and unbeaten Canadian raider Numerous Times look to have more potent armoury. Val Royal who won nicely in Santa Anita last time out, is preferred, but I'm not that confident. Forbidden Apple, and Numerous Times from the 'home team' as well as Express Tour who could be very interesting on his turf debut, look the best eachway bets . I'd take a chance on the Godolphin 'second string', who arguably is better than his last two runs; here and in the Kentucky Derby suggest.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Val Royal
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Express Tour
8:10 Penske Auto Centers Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+)
[1] Xtra Heat 3 year old, trained by J E Salzman Sr
[2] Bet On Sunshine 9 year old, trained by P McGee
[3] Squirtle Squirt 3 year old, trained by R Frankel
[4] Kona Gold 7 year old, trained by B Headley
[5] Alannan 5 year old, trained by C Nafzger
[6] Caller One 4 year old, trained by J Chapman
[7] Delaware Township 5 year old, trained by B W Perkins
[8] Left Bank 4 year old, trained by T Pletcher
[9] Five Star Day 4 year old, trained by C B Greely
[10] El Corredor 3 year old, trained by B Baffert
[11] Mozart 3 year old, trained by A O'Brien
[12] Swept Overboard 4 year old, trained by C Dollase
[13] Peeping Tom 4 year old, trained by P Reynolds
[14] Hook And Ladder 3 year old, trained by J C Kimmel
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Kona Gold; El Corredor; Caller One; Swept Overboard, Left Bank, Mozart, and Xtra Heat make most appeal in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. This should be fiercely contested from flagfall, with Squirtle Squirt testing these early on. last year's winner Kona Gold and Caller One, who finished second, shouldn't be far away Kona Gold, surprisingly beaten by Swept Overboard last time may lead them into the finishing stretch, but has been found wanting before, and may be again by Mozart and El Corredor. Mozart has by far his biggest ask here, and despite carrying all before him in Europe. will find this a complete different experience. that said, he does have the advantage over previous European representatives in being proven over further than this trip, having won the Jersey Stakes over 7 furlongs. Whilst some may feel his drawn a disadvantage, it may be a blessing to this debutante to dirt. I wouldn't be surprised if he ran a great race, and look worthy of support at eachway odds, however I suspect that El Corredor; (another horse proven over further than this trip) may just outlast him.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> El Corredor;
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Mozart
8:45 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares)
[1] Spook Express 3 year old, trained by T Skiffington
[2] England's Legend 4 year old, trained by C Clement
[3] Mot Juste 3 year old, trained by E Dunlop
[4] Chaste 5 year old, trained by F Schulhofer
[5] Banks Hill 3 year old, trained by A Fabre
[6] Volga 3 year old, trained by C Clement
[7] Kalypso Katie 3 year old, trained by N Drysdale
[8] Solvig 4 year old, trained by C Nafzger
[9] Crystal Music 3 year old, trained by J Gosden
[10] Starine 4 year old, trained by R Frankel
[11] Spring Oak 3 year old, trained by A Fabre
[12] Lailani 3 year old, trained by E Dunlop
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> There is a very strong European representation in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, and it will be disappointing if we, in the shape of Lailani, Banks Hill, Mot Juste, Crystal Music, and Spring Oak didn't manage to lift this prize. It is encouraging that Lailani has already tasted success in America having taken the Flower Bowl Stakes beating England's Legend over course and distance last time. I'm not show that the outside draw is a disadvantage, and I'm sure she'll go close, however Banks Hill makes plenty of appeal. hailing from a yard that has tasted success at this meeting before. she was one of the best milers in Europe this season (certainly amongst the fillies) and possesses a telling turn of foot. She has been very unlucky in running in her last two starts, however this race could be played into her hands, and if she is anywhere nears the leaders turning for home, she'll use that acceleration to devastating effect. Mot Juste, who should dictate matters in front and Crystal Music (who has a better chance on form lines with the selection, than her latest run at Longchamp last time out suggests) make plenty of appeal at eachway odds. Crystal Music gets the nod
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Banks Hill
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~>Crystal Music
9:20 Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings)
[1] Siphonic 2 year old, trained by D Hofmans
[2] Officer 2 year old, trained by B Baffert
[3] Johannesburg 2 year old, trained by A O'Brien
[4] Essence Of Dubai 2 year old, trained by E Harty
[5] Jump Start 2 year old, trained by D W Lukas
[6] Publication 2 year old, trained by T Knight
[7] French Assault 2 year old, trained by J Desormeaux
[8] Ibn Al Haitham 2 year old, trained by E Harty
[9] Saarland 2 year old, trained by C McGaughey III
[10] Repent 2 year old, trained by K McPeek
[11] Came Home 2 year old, trained by J Gonzalez
[12] It'sallinthechase 2 year old, trained by W Brown
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Can Johannesburg take the Breeders' Cup Juvenile? ... well he's one of the better European representatives to line up, and shouldn't have a problem with the surface, however this is really the afterthought - after having had the banquet in Europe this summer, and surely if you want to take a prize like this you really have to come 'spot on' for this. whilst I expect a good run, I'd prefer to 'roar him home' without my cash on. The same applies to Officer, who on what I've seen is clearly an exceptionally precocious two year old, however despite some big margin wins, he didn't strike me as a horse that was gong to find a lot if asked close home. at his current skimpy odds he's worth opposing. I'll play safe here and hope that Essence Of Dubai, (eachway) gets into the money. he appears to have improved since being thumped by Officer on his second start, but won the Norfolk Stakes over a mile last time out , and shouldn't be too far away. Siphonic who has won his only two starts, in the manner of a horse crying out for this 1m-1/2f trip is the alternative
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Essence Of Dubai, (e/w)
²ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~>Siphonic
9:55 Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+)
[1] With Anticipation 6 year old, trained by J Sheppard
[2] Fantastic Light 5 year old, trained by S bin Suroor
[3] Blazing Fury 3 year old, trained by J Toner
[4] Chorwon 8 year old, trained by H Wiggins
[5] Slew Valley 4 year old, trained by M Dickinson
[6] Lodge Hill 4 year old, trained by P England
[7] Slew The Red 4 year old, trained by A Fabre
[8] Timboroa 5 year old, trained by R Frankel
[9] Quiet Resolve 6 year old, trained by M Frostad
[10] Mutamam 6 year old, trained by A Stewart
[11] Hap 5 year old, trained by W Mott
[12] Milan 3 year old, trained by A P O'Brien
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Fantastic Light, Timboroa, Hap, Milan, With Anticipation, and Mutamam all have claims in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Fantastic Light, Milan, and Mutamam give Europe a strong hand; Fantastic Light, the conqueror of Galileo at Leopardstown, should go off favourite - but has been beaten before in this race (and more importantly each time over this trip) and represents poor value despite his good credentials. the same comment applies to Hap, who would be very interesting at ten furlongs but has also been found wanting at this distance. The trip hold no problems for Milan, however I'm not certain whether this out and out stayer will be suited to the competitiveness of this affair. He'll certainly be staying on at the business end of the race though and may make the frame. I think With Anticipation could take a lot of beating here. He is a fairly recent convert to turf, having shown Grade 1 form on the Dirt. He is usually ridden from the front or lays handy in his races, as was the case when winning here over 1m3f last time out. he is likely to be able to control his own destiny - which several of his rivals can't boast. and if he is allowed to control this, he could scupper Europe's challenge. Timboroa also boasts good credentials, and looks interesting as and alternative at current British odds.
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> With Anticipation
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Timboroa
10:35 Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+)
[1] Orientate 3 year old, trained by D W Lukas
[2] Guided Tour 5 year old, trained by N O'Callaghan
[3] Black Minnaloushe 3 year old, trained by A O'Brien
[4] Include 4 year old, trained by G Delp
[5] Galileo 3 year old, trained by A O'Brien
[6] Sakhee 4 year old, trained by S bin Suroor
[7] Macho Uno 3 year old, trained by J Orseno
[8] Gander 5 year old, trained by J Terranova II
[9] Albert The Great 4 year old, trained by N Zito
[10] Tiznow 4 year old, trained by J M Robbins
[11] A Fleets Dancer 6 year old, trained by R Attfield
[12] Aptitude 4 year old, trained by R Frankel
[13] Freedom Crest 5 year old, trained by R Baltas
¥:<>:<>:<>:THE FURLONG POLE:<>:<>:<>:¥
T.H.E. R.O.O.K. :<>:~~> Aptitude, Galileo, Tiznow, Sakhee, and Albert the Great; look the best of those lining up for the Classic. Aptitude should really be favourite, particularly after his 10-length success in the Jockey Club Cup. That appears to be one of the best bits of collateral evidence here, and if he's in that frame of mind should be hard to beat. Tiznow, and Albert the Great aren't far behind, Tiznow in definitely on the way back to the form that saw him take this last year, and has to be respected. Albert the Great is a model of consistency, and though he finished behind Aptitude in the Jockey Club Cup, has an excellent record at Belmont, and is likely to be in the money. Although the pedigree suggests otherwise, I think that Sakhee and Galileo give Europe a very strong hand. They have, for most of the season, dominated the European scene, and are as classy a pair as the American challenge has met on dirt, and I'd hope that one of them can lift this prize. They are very difficult to split, however Sakhee is the fresher of the pair, (and probably the better one). if he is in the form that saw him take the Arc de Triomphe, the home challenge will find it hard to defend the 'two-pronged onslaught'
¹NØ.1 CHOICE :<>:~~> Sakhee
²E/W ALTERNATIVE :<>:~~> Albert the Great
|
|
