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NEWMARKET
Saturday 30th September
1:50 European Breeders Fund Alington Maiden Fillies' Stakes Class D
"The Flat Man" ~ Ghazal and Jacana representing top yards and with good form already in the book are the pick. Their race experience (though limited) will make it tough for the newcomers to overcome. Marginal preference is given to Jacana.
No*1 Choice ~ Jacana
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Ghazal
(E/W) Alt. ~ Red Carnation
2:20 Hole In The Wall Oh So Sharp Stakes Class A (Listed Race)
"The Flat Man" ~ Competitive heat. Lil's Jessy get the vote to complete her hat trick.
No*1 Choice ~Lil's Jessy
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Lil's Jessy was impressive in her last start, but I thought that Lilium was more so on her debut at Warwick and therefore is taken to score here
No*1 Choice ~Lilium
(E/W) Alt. ~ Baratheastar
2:55 Peugeot Sun Chariot Stakes Class A (Group 2)
"The Flat Man" ~ Plenty of pace on here courtesy of the likes of Alshakr, Lady of Chad and May Ball. One has to think the battle for the lead may prove detrimental to their chances and with Danceabout probably best at 7F I'll take a chance that Papabile who is held up (not a great deal to find with some of these) can capitalise on the way the race will be run.
No*1 Choice ~ Papabile
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ If she runs to form, its hard to see past Lady of Chad
No*1 Choice ~ Lady of Chad [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ Mayaro Bay
3:35 Tote Cambridgeshire Showcase Handicap Class B
"The Flat Man" ~ I think the key factor which has hit me regularly when analysing this race is how well Bound for Pleasure is handicapped. With the horse in such good nick (along with the rest of the stable) and conditions seemingly ideal he is the one for the others to beat. The minus is that he does not grab me as a horse who will go on to much better things like many winners of this race go on to do. He is a handicapper and that's it. Although, she has a few pounds to find with this one, I'm going to select Jathaabeh on the basis that she is an improving filly this year and I expect more to be forthcoming over this longer trip. Certainly, her style of racing where she has got up inside the final furlong to win her maiden and a handicap (despite being hampered) last time suggest she may be better over further and I feel has the sort of potential which Bound for Pleasure lacks. I'm also a little wary of the James Fanshawe challenge (the pick may be Lady Angharad) who would be unbeaten if you forgive her last run. Of the others, Air Defence demonstrates how well Bound for Pleasure is weighted and it looks difficult for this one at the revised weights, Triple Dash though well fancied has no form to encourage me, Milligan looks to face a stiff task and may prefer further, while Katy Nowaite has along absence to overcome and this must count against her despite acknowledging her usefulness. Man O Mystery has his quirks and may not be suited to this hurly burly and connections have not been over confident during the week and his participation has been in doubt. So realistically, the main danger to the selection is Nooshman whose run last time can be safely ignored (less room than the contents of Samantha Fox's bra) and should be judged on the excellent effort at York where he was only denied victory by a poor draw. As this one always seems to be a little unlucky and has his fair share of weight I'm prepared to pass over this one reluctantly. Aegean Dream who finished well ahead of Nooshman last time and who is having a good year is a huge price compared to that one and is the each way candidate.
No*1 Choice ~ Jathaabeh
(E/W) Alt. ~ Aegean Dream
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Excellent summary. I've long since thought the Cambridgeshire was Nooshman's sort of race, and I'll stay loyal to him, despite reservations about him getting a run
No*1 Choice ~ Nooshman [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ Culzean
4:10 Charles Heidsieck Champagne Handicap Class C
"The Flat Man" ~ Probably safest to stick with the progressive Three Lions here who seems to be coming into his own now that he has a trip (he is bred to do so - related to stayer Spunkie). Fanfare could also go well (this is a lot easier than the York contest last time where she performed ok) while Master George could go well after his comeback effort behind Afterjacko. Lord Alaska probably needs further while ground conditions may not suit Alpha Rose. Jack Dawson is consistent and is worth a second look.
No*1 Choice ~ Three Lions
(E/W) Alt. ~ Jack Dawson
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Three Lions
(E/W) Alt. ~ Send Me An Angel
4:45 NGK Spark Plugs Performance Nursery Class C
"The Flat Man" ~ Blue Reigns is well regarded and although this represents a stiffer task than the modest (but valuable) sales race which was landed last time in a truly wide open affair this one gets the tentative vote.
No*1 Choice ~ Blue Reigns
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Caustic Wit
(E/W) Alt. ~ Zhitomir,
5:20 Links Handicap Class C
"The Flat Man" ~ Not an easy one to complete the day. Supreme Salutation is knocking at the door but has had too many chances for me and I prefer the chances of the likes of Pays d' Amour who although below form last time has been in super form this year. He is the choice from Goodenough Mover who is of a similar mould.
No*1 Choice ~ Pays d'Amour
(E/W) Alt. ~ Goodenough Mover
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Goodenough Mover
(E/W) Alt. ~ Aploy
Friday 29th September
HOUGHTON MEETING AT NEWMARKET
2:05 Fishpools Furnishings Godolphin Stakes Class A (Listed Race)
"The Flat Man" ~ Hataab was a confident selection from this quarter last time at Goodwood. However, I do not think he stayed then, and I see no reason why today's stiffer test should be any different. His only chance is if the race is slowly run (and this is possible) in which case stamina will not come fully into play. I'm not prepared to take that chance and see this as resting (unimaginatively) between Wellbeing and Pawn Broker. I just favour the penalised Elsworth runner in the hope that he can make race fitness count against the Epsom Derby returning Wellbeing. Although Pawn Broker struggled somewhat last time in disposing of Francesco Guardi I think time will show that was by no means a bad performance.
No*1 Choice ~ Pawn Broker
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Wellbeing
(E/W) Alt. ~
2:35 H & K Commissions Rated Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B
"The Flat Man" ~ Plenty of these are unreliable (Volontiers, Bailey's Whirlwind) difficult rides (Free Option, Omaha City and possibly Red N'Socks) or past their best for the season (Strahan and possibly Capriccio) which makes it a difficult race to call. In view of these factors, the consistent Grey Eminence must have a big shout while a back to form Granny's Pet would surely go close (but this one has not recaptured last year's sterling efforts and is passed over). I will take a chance that Bahamian Pirate can see out the seventh furlong here and add to his Ayr Gold Cup success last time - I saw no sign of him stopping there over the stiff Ayr 6F. Clearly, is having a very good season, is in great heart and possibly still improving
No*1 Choice ~ Bahamian Pirate
(E/W) Alt. ~ Grey Eminence
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Grey Eminence
(E/W) Alt. ~ Red N' Socks,
3:05 Somerville Tattersall Stakes Class A (Group 3)
"The Flat Man" ~ A tough one. King Charlemagne (from 7 entries) represents A O'Brien and this one has long been held in the highest regard and it is this time of year where this stable traditionally lands the big prizes. He should not be opposed lightly. In a race of many dangers (Grandera for example caught my eye at Warwick) I'll oppose them all with the unbeaten Bourgainville who has been in my notebook since his debut victory. I decided this likeable individual should not be opposed in the short term even in the highest class and I hope this judgement is correct here.
No*1 Choice ~ Bourgainville [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ King Charlemagne
(E/W) Alt. ~ Palanzo
3:40 James Levett Handicap Class C
"The Flat Man" ~ Although this is definitely a very tightly knit handicap with some very tough customers on show (and some old friends like Moon Solitaire who always puts it in) I liked the way Muschana won at Epsom last time in the style of a horse going the right way. He should prove very difficult to beat here.
No*1 Choice ~ Muschana
(E/W) Alt. ~ Solo Flight
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Cloud Hopping
(E/W) Alt. ~ Barton Sands
4:15 Boadicea Fillies' Rated Stakes Class B (Handicap)
"The Flat Man" ~ A disappointing bunch really.... Difficult. If you can forgive Molly Brown's latest below par effort, I think her good handicap efforts over this trip should be good enough for her to get the narrow vote here despite the "step up in class" (sic).
No*1 Choice ~ Molly Brown
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Molly Brown
(E/W) Alt. ~ Glowing
4:45 European Breeders Fund Further Flight Classified '90' Stakes Class C
"The Flat Man" ~ A back to form Bold King can be a difficult opponent (prefers soft) as he showed in the Victoria Cup while Willoughby's Boy is a tough customer who is having a pretty good season. Aranyi is very consistent and has a squeak but Flamenco Red looks quite well treated here in my opinion down at the bottom of the weights and as there is probably better to come from this one in the coming weeks I'll give him the nod.
No*1 Choice ~ Flamenco Red
(E/W) Alt. ~ Aranyi
"The 4 Long Pole" ~
No*1 Choice ~ Willoughby's Boy
(E/W) Alt. ~ Aranyi
NEWMARKET
Thursday 28th September
1:30 sport4cast.com Claiming Stakes Class E
"The Flat Man" ~ Clearly, not a contest to get seriously involved with. No doubt in my mind that Yarob's early season handicap form would enable him to take this doing handsprings - however it is some time now since he showed that level of form. Able Seaman consistently runs well at the minor tracks but is a paceless individual as his record indicates. Few of the others appeal. Winsome George cannot be relied upon to follow up his recent success while there must be doubts that Acquire Not Desire (who is rather lightly raced of late and must have had training problems) can handle two races in just over a week. I think therefore this can be left to the lightly raced Millennium Summit (trained by the astute James Fanshawe) who has not performed too badly to date. Although not one of the stable's better animals he would not have to be to land the spoils here. Fliquet Bay could also run well but has been off the track for sometime.
No*1 Choice ~ Millennium Summit
(E/W) Alt. ~ Able Seamen
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Have to agree with my learned colleague about the first. I cannot understand how Yarob, Nautical Star, Medaille Militaire, and Fliquet Bay have ended up in a race like this. I do though think that if they retain their ability, they must figure... Fliquet Bay won the vote by a narrow margin over Medaille Militaire, who will appreciate this far more than he did a spin round Warwick over fences in June
No*1 Choice ~ Fliquet Bay
(E/W) Alt. ~ Medaille Militaire
2:05 Baileys Horse Feeds Nursery Showcase Race Class C
"The Flat Man" ~ Tightly knit affair. Likely to be plenty of pace in the race. Rasoum is the problem horse for me. Likely to be suited by 5F (has good form at 6F) but in a fast run event may find top weight too big a burden. While Clarion's chances are respected (very consistent) he is untested on the likely ground conditions. Effervesce seems to have been let in lightly to me and has good chances on form lines with many of these. As he acts on the ground and is as tough as they come he is the tentative selection. Muja Farewell had been most consistent until last time (should be forgiven) and if producing earlier winning form can go close.
No*1 Choice ~ Effervesce
(E/W) Alt. ~ Muja Farewell
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Agree again with The Flat Man, however I do think that Rasoum's presence in the field also gives Night Haven, Amelia, and My Lucy Locket strong claims. Night Haven impressed me when winning her maiden last time out and gets the vote
No*1 Choice ~ Night Haven
(E/W) Alt. ~ My Lucy Locket
2:35 Unicoin Homes Joel Stakes Class A (Listed Race)
"The Flat Man" ~ The drop back in trip should see Hopeful Light run a big race and with the Gosden team currently in overdrive I expect him to go close. I think he might set the race up for the admirable Swallow Flight who has done nothing wrong this season in the highest class. His consistency deserves some reward and I hope this gutsy fellow achieves that here in what is his simplest task for some time.
No*1 Choice ~ Swallow Flight
(E/W) Alt. ~ Hopeful Light
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Swallow Flight does have the best credentials here, and whilst he did disappoint last time out, he must be the percentage call in this event. If there is a surprise then the progressive handicapper El Gran Papa, may be the one to provide it
No*1 Choice ~ Swallow Flight [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ El Gran Papa
3:10 Middle Park Stakes Class A (Group 1)
"The Flat Man" ~ Perhaps, being a little boring here but I cannot see past Minardi after his super impressive last effort. Despite the obvious dangers, I feel if he is as good as I think then he will not be beaten.
No*1 Choice ~ Minardi [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Hmmm ... Very difficult race to gauge, as Endless Summer, Bad As I Wanna Be, Baaridd, Ghayth, and Minardi are all probably more closely match that the initial impression suggests, or that's the way I see it anyway!!!. Minardi may well come out and win this, but my gut reaction is that he needs to improve to take this. I'm going to give Bad As I Wanna Be another chance; he clearly didn't run his race in France last time, more importantly the seventh furlong exaggerated the impression you take from the race. His best performance is at today's trip. Baaridd and Ghayth should go well and have good place claims
No*1 Choice ~ Bad As I Wanna Be
(E/W) Alt. ~ Ghayth
3:40 JRA Nakayama Rous Stakes Class A (Listed Race)
"The Flat Man" ~ Astonished was a costly failure last time for many including the FTG team. Worth giving him another chance to atone here although his chance diminishes if too much rain gets into the ground. Andreyev is next best.
No*1 Choice ~ Astonished
(E/W) Alt. ~ Andreyev
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ I was impressed with Rosselli last week at Beverley, and I think he'll make these go if he repeats the dose
No*1 Choice ~ Rosselli (E/W)
Alt. ~ Astonished
4:15 European Breeders Fund Westley Maiden Stakes Class D
"The Flat Man" ~ Impossible to call with many top stables represented. Market will guide. Of the unraced horses my vote goes to Silky Dawn who is the Cecil representative from his 5-day entries including a useful performer. But as I like experience in two-year-olds I will select Ranin.
No*1 Choice ~ Ranin
(E/W) Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Nothing at all to go on... Mosayter interested me the most...watch the market I think
No*1 Choice ~ Mosayter
(E/W) Alt. ~ Demophilos
4:45 European Breeders Fund Westley Maiden Stakes Class D [Division Ii]
"The Flat Man" ~ Same comments apply here as in the previous race. Nzame each way is the choice.
No*1 Choice ~ Nzame (E/W)
Alt. ~
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Nzame posted a good debut effort and that should make him hard to beat in this, but Stock Proof looks a nice sort of breeding and gets the call
No*1 Choice ~ Stock Proof
(E/W) Alt. ~ Nzame
5:15 Fitzwilliam Handicap Class D
"The Flat Man" ~ At last some form to work with! (In fact far too much of it). The Quinn/Butler combination catch the eye with Ulysses Daughter while Poppy's Song has put in some pleasing efforts recently and has caught my attention. The two Branston's; Pickle and Lucy can also go well and must be considered. I will stick though with my Goodwood Festival selection (Fly like the Wind) who despite attracting stacks of cash on the day ran too bad to be true and finished last. I often had in the back of my mind that the minimum trip could suit for this one and I'll take a chance in this wide-open contest that this thought can prevail.
No*1 Choice ~ Fly Like The Wind
(E/W) Alt. ~ Branston Lucy
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ If she gets the run of the race, Ulysses Daughter does look to have an excellent chance... Ajyaal in her first handicap also appeals, and could "make a bold show"
No*1 Choice ~ Ulysses Daughter
(E/W) Alt. ~ Ajyaal
Tuesday 26th September
HOUGHTON MEETING AT NEWMARKET
A very strange card, were it not for the Cheveley Park stakes you'd give it the complete wide berth, I cannot say that I am a fan of a racecard comprising of 4 two year old races .......... Hey Ho !!!.
1:05 European Breeders Fund Jersey Lily Fillies' Nursery Class B
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Cant really see past Palatial. Her defeat of Sayedah by 1 1/2l at Newbury last time looks solid, and she gets the vote over Dubai Seven Stars, Love Everlasting, and Saltwood
No*1 Choice ~ Palatial [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ Celtic Island
1:35 £400000 Tattersalls Houghton Sales Stakes Class B
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ Mozart is likely to be a warm order for the second, its hard not to see why after he slaughtered Speirbhean by 8l, on his debut....... He's no sort of price for this but I think he is most likely of these to oblige .... that's good enough for me
No*1 Choice ~ Mozart
(E/W) Alt. ~ Beekeeper
LONG*SHOT ~ Queenie
2:05 Shadwell Stud Cheveley Park Stakes Class A (Group 1)
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ This isn't an easy call for me. I waxed lyrical about how enthused I was with Khulan, so for her to promptly get put in her place by Enthused dented the pride. As they meet again here, the only way to oppose Enthused is if I believe Khulan can improve enough to reveres form (No easy task) ........ having studied the race again I think I can. After travelling well when she was put under pressure, she ran greenly hanging left under the drive over 1f out, and not really running on as much as you'd have expected inside the final furlong .............. As she was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths, it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that she can improve enough to overturn Enthused....... This probably sounds as though I'm clutching at straws, but it is a view felt from the heart, and it is hoped that she proves me right but about 2:15pm !!!
No*1 Choice ~ Khulan [R*ecommended],
(E/W) Alt. ~ Santolina,
2:40 Choke Jade Apprentice Handicap Class E
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ I think this event is set up for the come from behind horses with Calldat Seventeen, amongst several who like to force the issue........ I like Lycian chances as a result and he has an excellent chance of landing a hat trick, but Annadawi flew up the Pontefract to score for FURLONG TO GO followers last week at 50/1, and i f she's in the same mood, a similar result is likely
No*1 Choice ~ Annadawi (E/W)
Alt. ~ Julius
3:10 Soltykoff Maiden Stakes Class D
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ All roads point to Tamburlaine after a couple of decent efforts against two useful sorts, most recently Nayef at Newbury. He will go close but I was taken by Dawari' s debut effort, where he ran extremely greenly, and really only 'raced' in the final quarter.... an 8l defeat behind Theatre Script was respectable under the circumstances ....... I expect a bolder bid today
No*1 Choice ~ Dawari
(E/W) Alt. ~ Ripcord
3:45 NGK Spark Plugs Rated Stakes Showcase Handicap Class B
"The 4 Long Pole" ~ The final race of this lopsided card is this 18 runner handicap. Sharp Stepper, Dollar Bird, Flossy, Takwin, Zilarator, Solitary, Wait For The Will, Gold Quest, Ormelie, Tissifer and Balladonia all have decnet claims. I'll go with Zilarator who dismissed Purple Heather without much fuss last time out at Kempton, though Takwin is improving so much that its conceivable that he may be up to defying his penalty for his success at the St. Leger Meeting
No*1 Choice ~ Zilarator
(E/W) Alt. ~ Solitary - easy winner of a maiden .... open to improvement
ONE TO NOTE ~ Sir Echo's only Peter Deal probably has it in mind to send this horse to Martin Pipe to go jumping
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