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The countdown to Cheltenham
has begun in earnest and "furlongtogo.co.uk"
will be trying our best over the next three months to pinpoint you, the way of some winners.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ANTE POST WAGERS ... ARE THERE ANY?
Is it just us, or has it been a relative quite year for ante post betting (bar the madness of the Triumph Hurdle market). . we haven't been particularly keen (bar one of two exceptions) in backing anything
ante post for the festival. With around 36 days to go is there anything that can be back with confidence or is it a case of waiting and seeing?. THE SPY & THE ROOK have case their eye at the entries/possibles, and have investigated whether at this stage, there is anything they'd be prepared to back .
Tuesday 13th March, 2002
2:00 Gerrard Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> Very difficult. Miros seems to be the likely favourite, however as good as he is, we have a nagging suspicion that he may have a preference for ground with cut in it, and would swerve Cheltenham in the ground contained the word "firm" in it. This really does negate him as a viable bet until nearer the time. We have been impressed with Goss' wins in Ireland, and this ex French colt wouldn't discredit himself if he lined up here. Others high on our list of possibles, include recent winners; Never from Francois Doumen's yard in France, plus Gone Far, Samon, and Cesaria from the Pipe camp and Direct Bearing who will far better suited that the likely fast conditions that he was the very soft ground he encountered on his debut at Leopardstown. Like a Butterfly, who will need to sharpen her jumping up to compete at this level is another to consider, as despite this potential flaw, she has the necessary class to take this. This is just skimming the surface, and there are probably a few runners yet to play their hand. Too many imponderables to be certain though we won't be in the least bit surprised if the winner wasn't amongst these, the exception may be the Group winner Bernardon if the Nicholashayne operation unleash him this season.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO, - The picture is too unclear, however Direct Bearing or Like A Butterfly (on decent ground) would probably bet our vote if you put a gun to our heads
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬> You could probably back the likes of Cesaria, and Gone Far at a decent price. Those two and Bernardon may be the only horses We'd consider, but the situation will become more clearly nearer the time
2:35 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>The race for the Arkle is even more unclear than race one. Blue Royal hasn't raced in anger since the 2000t Champion Hurdle, but is a possible... You'd also want to see Moscow Flyer back over fences before this race, to be sure his confidence hasn't been affected by his tumble at Leopardstown. We like Seebald despite having been given an extremely usual preparation for this race, effectively having been on the go all year since beginning his career over fences during the summer campaign. He is hard to fault, and has been more impressive since he has been stepped up in trip. This'll stand him in good stead for this race, and he can be expected to go well . Fondmort hasn't done anything wrong, however will Nicky Henderson really pit Blue Royal and Fondmort against each other when, there are possible alternatives for both of them ... time will tell. . Add the likes of Truckers Tavern, (clearly a horse with a future); Youlneverwalkalone, whose beginning to find his feet over fences, Royal Auclair ,St Pirran and Barton, who all possess the necessary potential to win a prize like this, and again there are at the moment, too many imponderables to be confident about making a choice, though Seebald & Blue Royal (if he has a run beforehand) are probably nosing ahead
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬> Truckers Tavern
3:15 Smurfit Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> It doesn't get any easier does it?!!!. The Rook has already written at great lengths about the demise of the Champion Istabraq, so there is no need to say much more, as far as to say that Charlie Swan's comments to Tracy Piggott on Irish Champion Hurdle Day "the horse hasn't been ridden or schooled since winning at Christmas" struck us as odd, especially as there isn't any doubt that Istabraq jumping is a cause for concern, and some extra schooling surely would have been beneficial. He clearly is as difficult to keep sound as ever (I doubt there has been any significant change) so if he turns up on the day, he has to be respected. However unlike the last couple of renewals, where he was clearly the best in the field, there can be little doubt that his gap of supremacy, which many believe he has, is all but dwindled away, and it is an extremely brave punter who would nominate him at this stage. He is written off at our peril though, and he is still in there fighting. Will punters stay loyal should Valiramix will a top class handicap off of top weight? (Something Istabraq was never asked to do). Patriotism will ensure mean that many will, however the serious punter will be swayed by a sound effort from Martin Pipe's charge. That said he is also flawed in the jumping department, and it will be interesting to see how this stand up this weekend. Landing Light will never impress some onlookers with his rather ungainly posture, but the engine works and you'd imagine he'll be thereabouts, as should Ned Kelly, Bilboa, Ansar,
Azertyuiop, Magnus and Rodock if they run to their best/get decent ground on the day. This is by far the most difficult race to call thus far, and we'll "take the fifth" , however it is worth noting that there if The French Furze doesn't go, there isn't any guaranteed pace in the race (no pacemakers have been entered). A lot of these are hold-up horses, so the likelihood is that this won't be run at the usual fierce pace.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> Valiramix, reluctantly
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬> Azertyuiop (fast) / Magnus (soft/heavy) depending on the ground could go well at a nice price
3:55 William Hill National Hunt H'cap Steeple Ch.
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> The entries are not out yet so its difficult to call this race at the moment, however we would be very keen on Heros Collonges, who has impressed us in winning races in France, and at Kempton if Guillame Macaire ran him here instead of the Sun Alliance Chase.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> Heros Collonges (FR),
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
4:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup H'cap Steeple Ch. (Amateur Riders)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> Until the entries/weights are published its impossible to be certain again, however Heros Collonges would again figure highly if he went for this, as would Woodenbridge Natif, Moor Lane, Majed, and Le Cabro d'Or if they were entered
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
5:05 Pertemps Final (H'cap Hurdle)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>There is one more qualifier for this event at Haydock on Saturday, so again until the weights/entries are published it's impossible to comment, though you'd hope that It Takes Time hasn't ruined his handicap mark for this, by chasing home Jair Du Cochet at Haydock, We need the weights to come out for maximum reassurance
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
Wednesday 14th March, 2002
2:00 Royal & Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>The second day of the meetings starts off much as day one began. Like A Butterfly, Classified and Miros immediately run off the pen, as does Keen Leader, who sluiced home at Uttoxeter last week. At the moment Classified would be the likeliest to line up, however his pedigree does suggest that he will want some cut it the ground to be at his most potent. we cant imagine (or will be surprised) if Keen Leader ran unless the ground's a bog, which may be a blessing in disguise as they lovely individual has "chaser" stamped all over him. Ballyhampshire Boy (surely better than his last effort), The Bajan Bandit, Direct Bearing, Pietro Vannucci, Tarxien,
Tucacas, Stormez, and Beef or Salmon could enter calculations as might the likes of Samsaam, Dalampour, Gone Far, and Exodous if they get the necessary experience beforehand. The field hasn't really taken shape, so until it does it does, this is another pass, though Classified, Like A Butterfly and Ballyhampshire Boy are the likeliest selections
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬> Ballyhampshire Boy
2:35 Queen Mother Champion Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>Very little has changed at the head of the market for this race, and only Turgeonev (disappointing last time out) Native Upmanship (likely to pass the meeting unless its soft enough) and Knife Edge have really come through the ranks. As a result, this at present will be between the usual protagonist (Edredon Bleu, Tiutchev, Flagship
Uberailles, Fadalko etc). There is no need to rush and it may prove more fruitful
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
3:15 Coral Eurobet Cup Showcase H'cap (Hurdle) (Gr.3)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> A race that The Rook particularly enjoys, wants to win, as he plundered it of late and he is certain to be looking closely at the entries with interest. This usually goes to well-handicapped novices or second season hurdlers and only Khayrawani who excelled at the trip proved to be an exception to this rule. Too early to offer any selections , however the likes of Ideal Du Bois Beury, Isio (if he obtained a handicap mark) Adamant Approach and Farmer Jack would be interesting
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
3:55 Royal & Sun Alliance Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>Japhet ...Japhet.... Japhet !!! . We put the title round the five year old's neck before he won the French equivalent of the Arkle last time out and haven't really seen anything to oppose him with. If he takes to British fences this weekend. He is probably likely to be the only one certain selection. If he fails to shine, the huge gelding Heros Collonges (also from Guillame Macaire's yard) would be an able substitute. There are more interesting option if you're looking for something eachway. Truckers Tavern, Maximise, Takagi, Assessed, Valley Henry, Youlneverwalkalone, and Jour J all have plenty of ability and are likely to develop into useful handicappers (at the very least). You may be able to get double figure odds on almost all of these and any one of them should give you a good run for your money.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>Japhet (FR)
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
4:30 131st Year of The National Hunt Steeple Ch. Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>This race on the face of it has lost a lot of its appeal with Maximise, who was an intended runner (and banker material) missing the event. No offence to the likes of Silver Streak and Suntas, who currently head the market, but they make nowhere as much appeal as he would have. Le Cabro D'Or who beat him fair and square has since been beaten himself (gallantly) since. Personally he'd better of in one of the handicaps, however if he lines up we'd find it hard to oppose him. I'm sure something else will come out of the woodwork though
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
5:05 51st Year of The Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup H'cap Steeple Ch.
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>This is another race at the meeting that could possibly fall to an improving novice. Until the entries/weights are out we'll reserved judgement , however we'd be very interested if Jour J lined up. we do think a lot of this giant grey , who should develop into a useful handicapper next year. For connections to have entered him for a couple of Graded novice events and the Sun Alliance Chase suggests that he clearly has been pleasing him at home. His form is hard to interpret, which should ensure that he isn't heavily penalised (put it this way , you cant be penalised for being entered in Graded races). Although he will stay 3miles in time, he may be seen to best effect over 2m5f, here and he'd be very interesting here if he were to line up
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬> NO, though Jour J would interest us if entered
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
5:40 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> Potentially a very decent renewal. You're hard to please if you haven't been impressed with the likes of Alexander Millenium, Ar Main Na Muice (now with Jonjo O'Neill), Petanque, Atum Re, No Collusion, Kicking King, Kickham, Back to Front and Inca Trail, and at the moment you'd imagine the winner coming from one of these. I've been a fan of Kickham's for a while now and he ran creditably last time conceding weight to Ar Main Na Muice. At the moment we're leaning his way, however we don't consider him to be an
ante post wager
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
Thursday 15th March, 2002
2:00 Elite Racing Club Triumph Hurdle (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> Slightly disappointed that that French have bypassed this with a lot of their better juveniles, though this arguably opens the race up a bit. Tempo D'Or, Great Love and Wesley Snypes are their possible representatives and they still have strong possibilities of landing the prize. Great Love will need to improve on his recent form at Pau, but can do so, whilst we have no doubt that Tempo D'Or will have a big say in the outcome of this race, given decent ground (We've repeatedly reported how badly he's run on heavy ground in France, so his recent demise at Cheltenham hardly should have come as a surprise). Their most interesting entry may be Wesley Snypes, who showed very little when tried over there, but seems to have improved significantly since going to Francois Doumen's yard, and put in a personal best effort when chasing home Greenhope at Kempton last time out. He is possibly still open to more improvement, and is an interesting possible. Greenhope is one part of a particular strong hand of runners Nicky Henderson has, as apart from him; Volano who won at Sandown last Saturday, Prizeman, Epervier D'Or (a promising second on his only start in France), Lord Joshua, Just Murphy, and Non So have been entered. Three of these haven't as yet raced in this country, so determining the pecking order is virtually impossible at the moment, though it wouldn't surprise us if Prizeman, Lord Joshua, and Epervier D'Or joined Volano (did no more than he should have at the weights on Saturday) at the head of the Triumph Hurdle market by if they were to win their respective debut races, such is the volatility of this particular betting market. This last point is probably the most pertinent as there are still several possibles yet to play their hand, (Naahil, Domenico, and Houseparty spring to mind). So whilst Le Roi Miguel, Vol Solitaire, Sud Bleu, Heezapistol, Sonevafushi, Greenhope, Londoner (should really be given another chance after his early exit at kempton) and Tempo d'Or are the current fancies amongst punters, don't be too surprised if it wasn't all change by 15 March 2002!!. As for offering a selection at this time, again there are no really dominant runners thus far, and playing it safe for now has to be the best option, though Tempo D'Or on the right ground, Vol Solitaire, (who beat Tempo D'Or at Cheltenham last time out) and Le Roi Miguel (unlikely to go at the moment, but a major player on his good run behind Miros last time out) look best. Tempo D'Or is the most likely to race so by that virtue he'd get the vote.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>Tempo D'Or (FR)
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
2:35 Bonusprint Stayers' Hurdle (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>If all goes to plan, this should be one of the races of the meeting with Limestone Lad (hopefully) attempting to land the spoil by running his rivals into the ground, whilst Barracouda, Bannow Bay, Magnus, Liss A
Paoraigh, and Jair Du Cochet lay in wait, waiting to pounce on him close home. If Barracouda is the best horse around at the moment
(connections of Le Sauvignon may question this), then he should take this, however this is probably his most difficult task of late, and he has been found wanting before. passing a fit Limestone Lad, never mind Jair Du Cochet, who appears to have appreciated the step up to 3miles last time out, may not be as "cut and dried" as his price suggests. He's the likeliest winner at the moment in our view , however he is hardly worth considering before the day at current odds, especially where support for Limestone Lad/Bannow Bay may be at its strongest. If you fancy Barracouda , we'd suggest that you wait until the day of the race. Skimming through the odds though, we are amazed that Magnus is such a big price, especially as only Le Sauvignon and Barracouda are rated better than him in France. His form in France in rock solid and we'd forgive any horse running badly if they bled once . Connections are unsure about his best trip though he certainly stayed 2m6f in France. If connections confirm his participation for this, rather than the Champion Hurdle, he could give you a good run form for your money at a nice price
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦> Magnus (FR)
3:15 Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Ch. (Gr.1)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>Were you impressed with Looks Like Trouble at Wincanton? ... if you were, you'll hard pressed to overlook him here, as the market for the Gold Cup becomes more confused rather than clearer by the day. It was very pleasing how much enthusiasm Looks Like Trouble displayed that day, particularly at the obstacles, which he really attacked which was encouraging. It was a pity that he beat nothing (no fault of his own) and as a result you really don't have any collateral evidence to suggest he's the one to beat here. Although nobody can take his win in the 2000 running away from him, the bare form of the race (particularly the performances of Lake Kariba and Strong Promise) hardly suggest invincibility. Add the stats for Gold Cup winners taking the prize again, and he becomes particularly unattractive (This doesn't mean that of course we wont select him in our preview in a few week's time). The same comments apply to several of the main contenders if we're honest and this is probably a race where knowing the line-up; likely ground, and likely pace may prove to be most beneficial. We'll pass on the likeliest winner for now and will discuss the claims of Bacchanal, Sackville, Shooting Light, Behrajan, Florida Pearl, Lord Noelie, Marlborough, Rince Ri, Alexander Banquet, Cyfor Malta, What's Up Boys, Foxchapel King et al, nearer the time. That said we wouldn't be at all surprised if Florida Peal again proves to be a popular eachway choice. Whilst some have reservations (justifiably) about him staying the trip, we don't. he has run with credit with every attempt thus far in the race, and more importantly, he showed far more resolution that we can remember of late when holding of Best Mate's determined challenge in the King George VI Chase. If he is in the same frame of mind on March 15th, it isn't difficult to see him going close again... Done be too surprised if he proves to be one of the better bets on the day as a result he may be worth covering a main bet with now.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>Florida Pearl
3:55 Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Ch. Challenge Cup
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>This race hasn't really taken shape as yet, however Sheltering, Horus and Minella Silver have been staking their claims for victory with wins between the flags. Whilst Sheltering has done nothing bar prove his well being (not his fault), it is clear than Horus and Minella Silver have confirmed their positions as our most promising prospects. Horus from David Pipe's sting of pointers, who won cosily at Larkhill three weeks ago, may be the best long-term prospect. We have been singing his praises for a while, and assuming he come through his first engagement under rules ok, He is the likeliest to carry our support
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>Horus
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦>
4:30 129th Year of The Cheltenham Grand Annual Steeple Ch. Challenge Cup (H'cap)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬> Again until the waits come out, it is impossible to make any firm predictions. However this is a good race for unexposed novices, so horses possibly not quite good enough to win the Arkle like Kadarann, Batswing Il'Athou, and Dark N Sharp, may go well here, as might Turgeonev, if he runs here instead of the Queen Mother Champion Chase
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>NO, though Kadarann, Batswing Il'Athou, and Dark N Sharp, would be interesting entries
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
5:05 Cathcart Challenge Cup Steeple Ch. (Gr.2)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>Its too early to predict what'll happen here, although Dusk Dual, Artic Copper, October Mist, Grimes, and Royal Auclair have been identified as possibles. we think 2m5f is Royal
Auclair' s ideal distance so we'd be most keen on him though it's very early days
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>NO,
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
5:40 Vincent O'Brien County H'cap Hurdle (Gr.3)
¦¤º°`°º¤¦ CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ¦¤º°`°º¤¦
¦ THE SPY & THE ROOK'S THOUGHTS ¦:--¦¬>The final race, ... and again the picture is unclear until the entries are announced. More on this nearer the time , however having just skimmed through our horses to follow features; Joe Cullen who ran creditably in the Irish Champion Hurdle, Janidou, and Adamant Approach who ran so well in the Pierse Hurdle, plus Cesaria and Tucacas; two ex French mares who sluiced home at Leicester recently are already under the microscope .... more nearer the time.
¦¹Ante-post selection at this stage?¦:--¦¬>NO, however Joe Cullen, Janidou, Adamant Approach, Cesaria and Tucacas, will interest us if they are entered
¦²Eachway Ante-post?¦ :--¦¬>
CONCLUSION
Horus, and Japhet are the only horses we would have enough confidence in to suggest, but both may need to prove that they can jump regulation fences before they'd be supported with maximum confidence
CHELTENHAM 2002
Tuesday, 05 February 2002
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