| |
The countdown to Cheltenham
has begun in earnest and "furlongtogo.co.uk"
will be trying our best over the next three months to pinpoint you, the way of some winners.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
"Cheltenham 2000"......The Triumph Hurdle Winner ?
Thursday 8 December, 1999
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I've been watching the major races for the festival develop, and whilst normally this race would have shown four or five to consider by now. I think its taking far longer to shape up.
Personally whilst they are good horses, I would be disappointed if the likes of High Stakes, Mixsterthetrixster, Angie Marine, and Bring Sweets ended up as winners
So far only two deserve any realistic consideration;
1. Fable
Can arguably be considered the best out so far, and this three times winner in Ireland does seem a cut above average. There was a lot to like about the manner of his victory over a good field including the touted Yeoman's Point at Fairyhouse
2. Persian Waters
The form of his race is questionable, the favourite that day April Allegro clearly didn't run to form, and some of the placed horses have been beaten since. Saying that there was a lot to like about the way he quickened away from them inside the final furlong and I'd expect this useful flat horse to come from the run.
The picture still is misty, however there are several debutantes due to make their presence felt in the coming six weeks, those interested in the ante post market may find this useful.
1. Yeoman Point; (A O'Brien)
Don't write him off, he needed the run behind Fable and might yet make an impact,
2. Ligne Ganante (Venetia Williams)
Always thought of him as a hurdler when racing with William Haggas, and should make the grade at least
3. Snow Drop (F Doumen)
Has also been successful over obstacles at Auteuil, and is also being lined up for a British campaign
4. Genghis Khan (Liam Comer in Ireland)
Listed race winner, who also ran I the Irish Derby and The Ebor. Also bought out of the O'Brien camp, an is expected to pay his way over hurdlers
5. Annamore (-)
Impressive winner of his only run on the flat, Roger Charlton considered taking out a jumping licence to win the Triumph with him, subsequently has been sold to a jumping stable
6. Goombayland
Repeated speculation about his participation, and he would be interested his can transfer his form which saw him beat Happy Change at Windsor
7. William Shakespeare (-)
Able if frustrating on the flat, with Barry Hills may improve for going over obstacles
8. Through The Rye (M C Pipe)
Useful handicapper on the flat, though his form did tail off. Has been given a break and should win with this trainer
9. L'Epicurien (Fr.) (M C Pipe)
Three times a winner in France round the provinces, has since been placed at Auteuil and is an interesting import
10 Ecuyer du Roi (Fr.) (M C Pipe)
Maiden in France but did have some useful bit of form at Auteuil, another import likely to make his mark over the coming months
11. Grand Seigneur (Fr.) (F Doumen)
Has wins over hurdles in France, and was placed in a grade 3 race at Auteuil
12. El Gran Hombre (C. Mann)
Bought out Aiden O' Brien yard, does have form with him and should make up into a nice hurdler
13. Kietstojt (POL) (-)
Has wins, and decent placed form over hurdles in France, and is being considered for a British campaign
That is scraping at the surface, but at least give an idea of the horses to look out for.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 1999
CHAMPION HURDLE
Saturday 27 February 1999
09:51:06 AM
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LIST OF RUNNERS AT LATEST FORFEIT STAGE
BELLATOR
BLOWING WIND [FR.]
CITY HALL
COMMANCHE COURT
DATO STAR
DECOUPAGE
FRENCH HOLLY
GREY SHOT
HAPPY CHANGE
ISTABRAQ
JUYUSH [USA]
LE COUDRAY [FR]
MIDNIGHT LEGEND
MISTER MOROSE
NOMADIC
PRIDWELL
PRINCE OF MY HEART
STRATEREZ [FR]
THEATREWORLD
TIUTCHEV
TOTO TOSCATO [FR]
UPGRADE
ZAFARABAD
LADY CRICKET [FR.]
1. bellator [-2553] : not a fan of this horse and his form this season isn't good enough even if he has moved to Venetia Williams
2. blowing wind [fr.] [-4f2] : looked useful last season but has been disappointing this season and took a horrible fall last time
3. city hall [- 4232] : probably will be suited by the likely strong pace of the race but seems up against it on this season's form
4. commanche court [-12113] : more likely to run in the stayers and wouldn't be good enough on this season's form
5. dato star [-1f3] : on his best form must have a strong each way case but has not run since injuring himself over Christmas, stable not in the best of form
6. decoupage [-2421] : impressive on the tote gold trophy but needs to improve to figure in the race, trainer has stated that he is better than supreme leader so is one to consider
7. french holly [-p212] : good horse who always may struggle against a real horse over 2 miles, may be forced to do a lot of the donkey work and might suffer if it comes down to a finishing kick, must however have strong place claims
8. grey shot [-11281] : has disappointed since winning impressively before Christmas, possibly because of the ground, would be a live outsider if the ground dries up
9. happy change [Ger.] [- ] : whatever chance this horse might have had may have gone in failing to get a run into him before the race,... possibly a pity
10. istabraq [-1111] hard to fault him so far this term, however did get beaten when having to slog it out at Aintree, if all is well that might be the only chink in this horses armour
11. juyush [USA.] [88-13] : whilst it was nice to see this one return to form he still has a lot to find on all known form
12. le coudray [FR.] [-111111] : impressive winner of 5 races in France before going to Aiden O'Brien's. more likely to run in the stayers hurdle, but would be interesting if he was declared
13. midnight legend [/3312] : a lot to find on his last run when winning last time, and might only be interesting if the ground dried up
14. mister morose [-11uu] : failed chaser who appears to have no chance on this season's form
15. nomadic [-121251] : can be excused his worst run of the season behind istabraq in the Irish champion hurdle, as he had just got over a bout of colic, travels well but doesn't always find much off of the bridle, though this may have been because he doesn't get further than 2 miles [most of his runs have been over further]
16. pridwell [-444] : although he is a perennial runner in the race and ran well last year, cant really be considered other than for each way purposes
17. prince of my heart [-4 ] : useful sort n the flat, but has probably too much to find and not enough experience
18. straterez [FR.] [- ] : like happy change might have been worth considering if he had had a couple of runs, for a change the winning line got this one wrong !!!
19. theatreworld [- 443] : second in the last two runnings of the race and might again in line for a placing in the race, but hard to picture him winning. needs a strongly run race
20. tiutchev [-21f16] : looked a tempting bet eachway until disappointing in the tote gold trophy, flop blamed on the ground, would be worth considering under the right conditions but realistically only for a place
21. toto toscato [FR.] [-41133] : looked useful in his first two runs but has disappointed twice since, ironically once when he got the strongly run race he needs, probably isn't good enough and is anyway more of a chasing type
22. upgrade [-3f9f3] : has run poorly all season and doesn't appear to have a chance on the book
23. zafarabad [-1323] : disappointing runs mid season were dispelled with a good run in the Irish champion hurdle, must have strong eachway claims
24. lady cricket [fr.] [-11] : useful in France, impressive first time out in this country, confirmed superiority to toto toscato in a nonsense of a race next time. difficult horse to evaluate as she would be rated better than a lot of there and appear to have scope for further improvement
CONCLUSION
I have to say that this is probably one of the worst renewals for the champion hurdle there has been in recent years. istabraq is well clear of these officially and could probably run below form and still win,
as big a fan as I am of french holly [the staying hurdler or chaser] , he doesn't give me the impression he could win this even in a bad year, if fact you could legitimately argue he might set the race up for istabraq or others because of his need to commit early to try and nullify that horse's finish. saying that he does have eachway claims
the formline through master Beveled is very strong [ very strange he wasn't entered, trainer didn't think he was good enough !!!]. only istabraq, midnight legend [master Beveled gave 14lbs] , french holly, and nomadic have beaten him this term . bar midnight legend they would all go well if running.
although I feel he has something to find, it wouldn't surprise if decoupage ran well, personally he looks well in at the weights in the county hurdle, and would have stronger claims if he went there.
others worth considering are dato star, theatreworld, Zafarabad and lady cricket
selection[s]
Istabraq - has to be really
3 possible eachway options, I'll be brave and go out on a limb
lady cricket - 28/1 Surrey
nomadic - 50/1 Hills
zafarabad - 40/1 Hills
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Teeton Mill Special, .. is he the 1999 Gold Cup Winner ?
31 December, 1998
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The last day of a vintage year, well as far as I was concerned !!!!. You can call this my new Year message .... anyway down to business. I am aware that some of ‘the fraternity’ are impressed with Teeton Mill and might be contemplating backing him for the Gold Cup.
Whilst not wishing to completely put you off, {far from it actually, Teeton Mill is clearly vastly improved this season}, I do suggest that it is more sensible to judge a horse on the basis of his overall form/record and not a instant gut reaction to a performance, however good it may initially appear.
So lets do that. You know me, I study horses from as early an opportunity as possible so that I under not only their strengths, but also appreciate their weaknesses. Ian Bendelow quite honestly suggested that he wouldn’t back a horse who openly displays temperament.
I can understand that attitude, however if you consider horses such as Pariah and King of Sparta, have won races at odds of 14’s {King of Sparta twice} 10’s 7s, I would argue that it might be profitable to understand why they do it before casting them aside. Not wishing to rub salt in an open wound Ian, but that’s why I made my comments about Ask Tom having a physical problem last term. Even in victory he never struck me as a horse who was particularly happen, and was very distressed when defeated. I just couldn’t find out any evidence to back me up, .... until after the Queen Mother.
Anyway back to Teeton Mill. I ‘ve checked his record in my hunter chase form books over the last On the face of it his record is very impressive. In the last four campaigns, he has only been beaten once when completing the course. In most of his races he has always travelled well on the bridle , and in most cases never came off of it.
That you have to say it very positive. Teeton Mill obviously has a high cruising speed and travels well on the bridle. I noted that all his recent victories have been on flat tracks. I then looked at his completion record. That is not a concern. His jumping which was very poor initially has been vastly improved, in fact in recent years, mistakes have almost been non existent.
What I find most interesting is when you look at when he was beaten. The only defeat in the last two seasons was at Cheltenham. when after appearing to travel well, he was outstayed up the hill by Double Thriller. I then looked at his record on undulating tracks. His current record is 1 from 5, his victory coming when completing for the first time is a maiden at Oakley Point to Point Course. With one exceptions all his failures to complete came on undulating tracks.
This to me is a strong negative. Whilst obviously accepting he has improved. I think I would be more keen to do him in the Gold Cup if I was certain that he acted on a undulating course.
More worrying is his defeat at Cheltenham last term. Whilst not trying to knock Double Thriller, in fact I have been a fan of his even since the first time he ran in a point {I was on at 4’s that day and he might be incredible value at 66-1 for the Gold Cup now Paul Nicholls has him}.
I would be concerned that he found so little off of the bridle that day. From what I have been able to establish Teeton Mill probably wouldn’t find much if asked to come off the bridle. To further back this up he also struggled to beat Rolling Ball in a hunter chase at Leicester after initially travelling well throughout the race
When you consider how dismissive some ‘pundits’ are about Escartesfigue winning a Gold Cup because he has never won on an undulating track yet is the only horse to properly get Florida Pearl off of the bridle over obstacles at CHELTENHAM. you have to wonder whether Teeton Mill is a good bet at the moment for the Gold Cup. On what I have outlined , I have to say ...... no not yet.
-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 1999
TOTE GOLD CUP
Saturday 27 February 1999
09:51:06 AM
----------------------------------------------------------------------
LIST OF RUNNERS AT LATEST FORFEIT STAGE
addington boy
collier bay
cool dawn
cyborgo [fr.]
dorans pride
double thriller
earthmover
earth summit
Escartesfigue [Fr.]
florida pearl
general wolfe
go ballistic
hanakham
imperial call
jathib [can]
lord gyllene [NZ]
nick dundee
rough quest
santa concerto
see more business
senor el bettrutti
simply dashing
sparky gayle
suny bay
teeton mill
unguided missile
unsinkable boxer
1 addington boy [-pf3] : top of the ground horse. ran well in the irish gold cup to finish 3rd [a distance behind florida pearl and Escartesfigue] he hasn't shown anything to make him worthy of serious consideration in this field. shouldn't be good enough
2. collier bay [-21212] : former champion hurdler who has taken well to fences without being top class. also entered in the sun alliance and would be more worthy of some consideration in that race.
3. cool dawn [-p2p] : last year's winner has had a difficult year, and has not really had the ideal preparation to win the race again. saying this, he did run well when conceding 28lbs to the toiseach on his only completion, and might surprise again if the ground dries up without be good enough to win
4. cyborgo [fr.] [-p4] : a light of his former self and an injury sustained in last year's race has left its mark. would appear to have no chance on this season's form.
5. dorans pride [-1121] : goes into this race in good heart, having run well to win three times, however there are two things that need to be considered, he has jumped sketchily this term by his standards, even when winning, a lot of the time jumping slowly and giving the obstacle plenty of height rather than low and accurate, this gets punished at the top level. secondly he has had better opportunitities to win this race and has failed to, so why should he win this renewal ?
6. double thriller [4/12-11] : much has been written about his slaughter of teeton mill last year at cheltenham, he did well to win that day bearing in mind his lack of experience of regulation fences, and his own fitness. he proved his ability to act on the track which is very important, and two facile victories with paul nichols prove his well being. there is no evidence that he in genuinely up to the task, he leaves you with the impression that he has the potential to play a major role
7. earthmover [11-fu7] : considering he was rated a stone better than teeton mill and double thriller, it is amazing how disappointing he has performed this term. there is evidence that he retains his ability, his jumping in better company has not held up. his preparation for this race has now gone wrong and cant be going there in good heart.
8. earth summit [-12p7] : although he won first time out and ran well behind suny bay next time out, he definitely hasn't shown any interest since and cant be considered seriously in this grade
9. escartefigue [Fr.] [-42322] : has improved throughout the season and has put behind him his only truely bad run when 'dogging' the issue at chepstow, should have beaten see more business that day. on the face of it his current price and position in the betting market is fair, he does however strongly suggest that improvement is likely over the trip, and maybe more importantly, he might relish a fight [he never stopped trying in his last two runs, which contrasts well from his antics at chepstow] and merits the closest scrutiny if there is still cut in the ground come gold cup day
10. florida pearl [11-f1] : up until two run's ago you couldn't really knock this horse's form, in fact you could say this horse has about everything you need to be top class over fence. Sound jumper [normally] blessed with a change of pace. appears to travel well on the bridle.... so what's wrong with him. basically its his lack of experience that worries me. it is well to remember that Richard Dunwoody did actually ask him a question at the obstacle he fell first time out ..... what it purely unlucky, or florida's pearl first response to being put under pressure. Would he relish a fight after a hard race with his preparation we'll find out at cheltenham
11. general wolfe [261-1f4] : has run this term but would have a lot to find if running in this company
12. go ballistic [0b-5p2] : lost his way before showing some of his old zest behind cyfor malta last time out. 4th two seasons ago and might again run well if the ground dries out
13. hanakham [1u31/3] : slightly disappointing after a long lay off and on the face of it has a lot to find, more of a national proposition at this stage, would however run respectively if retaining his old ability
14. imperial call [-11213] : still possesses some of the ability which allowed him to win the gold cup, and has run well this season when given his head when winning over 21/4-3 miles. not disgraced in the king george, and might be an interesting proposition on fast ground without probably being good enough
15. jathib [can] [p-3f] : has absolutely no chance of his most recent form
16. lord gyllene [NZ] [121/4p] : ran well first time out before disappointing next time. has to have decent ground and might run well if he gets it, but shouldn't be good enough.
17. nick dundee [1-u1111] : nice long term prospect but doesn't deserve his current position in the market, another 'hyped' horse, who hasn't done anything to deserve serious consideration in this field. is more likely anyway to run in the sun alliance chase
18. rough quest [33ff-p] : hasn't shown anything recently to be worthy of serious consideration
19. santa concerto [/11415] : useful handicapper in the north, would not disgrace himself if the mud flew, but is not good enough too win this.
20. see more business [-41p3] : Don't know what to make of him..... He seemed to have everything going for him at the end of last season, who knows whether fate deprived him of victory in last season's race. However I think he has been particularly unimpressive this season, especially over the obstacles. None of his run has exactly made you contemplate backing him for Cheltenham. He is not a natural but is adequate, but he makes far too many mistakes against his peers to make him an attractive proposition, Saying that though he is the sort of horse that does, have the ability to win a Grade one race and therefore might be attractive to those who are looking for the proven horse at long odds
21. senor el bettrutti [-47782] : although he has run at the track, and in this race, he does not look good enough
22. simply dashing [-322p2] : has run consistently well this term without winning and may well do so again, but is likely to find several of these too good again
23. sparky gayle [3-3p2] : has lost his way a little bit but did run well last time, and is an interesting proposition... in one of the handicaps if the ground dries up. he has no chance in this
24. suny bay [-11f] : is better judged on his first two runs this term, when beating see more business and escartefigue than his debacle in ireland when he never travelled at all before falling two out. runs best fresh, might be better suited by a flat track but has won impressively twice at towcester so I don't agree necessarily with that theory. he is a lively outsider on decent ground
25. teeton mill [-1111] : an improved horse this season, though not as much as some believe. he possesses a high cruising speed, and impressed when winning the Hennessy and king george respectively. his record over the last four seasons, is on the face of it very impressive. he has only been beaten once when completing the course. In most of his races he has always travelled well on the bridle , and in most cases never came off of it. that you have to say it very positive. it is worth noting that all his recent victories have been on flat tracks. his jumping which was very poor initially has been vastly improved, in fact in recent years, mistakes have almost been non existent. what I find most interesting is when you look at when he was beaten. his only defeat in the last two seasons was his now infamous defeat at cheltenham, when after appearing to travel well, he was outstayed up the hill by double thriller. I've looked at his record on undulating tracks. currently, his record is 2 from 6, if you include ascot last time out, his only other victory coming when completing for the first time is a maiden point to point. with one exception, all his failures to complete came on undulating tracks. this may suggest a possible negative. whilst obviously accepting he has improved. I think I would be more keen on him in the gold Cup if I was certain that he acted on a undulating course...i'm not. more worrying was his defeat at cheltenham last term. I would be concerned that he found so little off of the bridle that day. he has also got an ungamely head carriage when coming off of the bridle, his ears flat back on his head. he demonstrated this trait at the end of his last two runs, and also in his defeat at cheltenham, as well as when struggling to beat rolling ball in a hunter chase at leicester [flat track]. there are many who believe he won with something in hand. horses who do don't demonstrate these traits. which his chance is obvious, there is a strong possibility that if he needs to teeton mill wouldn't find much if asked to come off the bridle,.. of course he may not have to.
26. unguided missile [p-p3p] : has run well on several occasions at the festival and won a handicap last season, howevr apart from one respectable run this term has shown very little so far and appears to have no chance on recent form, might however run well in one of the handicaps though
27. unsinkable boxer [111-1f1] : top class hurdler who is getting the hang of fencing, however preparation has not gone as planned. unlucky to fall when coming to challenge at cheltenham, and might have won that day, although he had been put under pressure to get there. more worrying was his latest performance which admittedly wouldnt have been run to suit. he did very well to win after making two horrific errors at the 2nd and 3rd, as well as some sloppy jumps close home. he eventually only just scrambled home. I feel for this horse as he is being asked a big question for one so inexperienced. however I acknowledged that he is potentially capable of a bold show
Conclusion
Unlike the champion hurdle and queen mother chase this should, on decent ground be a classic. most people have lined themselves up behind the main protagonist and await the call of battle.
This is an important point before going any further. this will not be an easy race to win. a lot of the horses that head the market have not had a real scrap this season. double thriller has had two bloodless victories which told us nothing other than he is in good heart. teeton mill, has had a similar path to cheltenham although he might have done if escartefigue had jumped the forth last well in the king george better, florida pearl, to some extent hasn't either, escartefigue again made him work for his victory last time, dorans pride came second in the only real race he's had this season
Very few of the 'trials' were truely run, therefore to judge these solely on sucess[es] maybe unwise, unless of course you sincerely believe that they can do so again in this race. there are very few of these that go into this without niggling doubts about them being up to the task
The ground is also going to have a bearing of the potential outcome. some of these [particularly dorans pride] have already demonstrated their inability to win on quicker surfaces and therefore are potentially falsely priced should that occur
This is going to be an intriguing game of chess with the likely winner potentially playing his card last and late, I think teeton mill, florida pearl, escartefigue, see more business, [maybe overpriced] and unsinkable boxer come into this category. I think double thriller and suny bay [also over priced] need to play their hand earlier to beat these. if they fail to, or unable to they wont win, it is conceivable that unless imperial call leads as he has recently, or one of the long shots, they may have to do some or a lot of the donkey work. I do expect the winner to come from one of these seven.
Turning for home it will be a case of which of these wants the victory the most, and I have to again lay my cards on the table and dismiss teeton mill's claim. unless he is as clear as he was at kempton turning for home, it is hard to envisage him outbattling some of these up the cheltenham hill, there is talk of holding him for as long as possible and trying to use speed close home, his major asset is his jumping which would be nullified if this was attempted, and conversely that tactic makes the tasks all the more harder. ive ordered a large humble pie in case i'm wrong !!!!
I expect big runs from double thriller and Escartesfigue, and also see more business, if the ground dries up come the big day [no chance if there's significant cut in the ground]. these three have demonstrated that they are prepared to scrap it out for victory and are guaranteed to relish a battle up the cheltenham straight.
SELECTION[S]
As there are so many ponderables I don't really think this is the sort of race to go big on anything to win, more something to savor, however since a selection is required, i'm going to choose florida pearl, but not with any real conviction, i'm not convinced he'll scrap it out if necessary but he does possess a touch of class and has won on the track
each way option[s]
escartefigue -9/1,
must go close if he puts in another clean round of jumping
double thriller -9/1,
an unknown quantity, with the potentially to improve
suny bay -20/1
does run well fresh, and is overpriced on these season's form
|
|
