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The countdown to Cheltenham
has begun in earnest and "furlongtogo.co.uk"
will be trying our best over the next three months to pinpoint you, the way of some winners.
CHELTENHAM POSSIBLES MAKE THEIR PRESENCE
FELT
Furlong To Go had a very good day today, particularly is you like following runners in our 'Horses to Follow' feature... they seem to be coming right for Cheltenham which is encouraging
DARK N SHARP (GER)
A horse I've liked all season is Dark N Sharp, who definitely deserves a shot at Cheltenham, after routing a field under 12-0 today. Not many horses will accelerate like he did on soft ground and as I stated in preview this morning, he faced an impossible task conceding 10lbs to Hunters Creek at Wetherby on his previous start. Whilst I think he could run well in the opener on this sort of surface, I'd be far more keen if he went for one of the handicaps, especially if the ground doesn't lose its juice
HINDIANA
A steal today, not sure how a Grade 3 chaser rated 150 over here is allowed to go off 7/2 !!!. Make no mistake this is a good horse, and will pay to follow when put back over the larger obstacles. There isn't really a race for him at the festival bar the Coral Cup, but I will be taking a keen interest if he lined up. the same probably applies to PROKOFLIEV, though he would find it hard to lead all the way against this sort of calibre of horse
HEIDI III
Continues to improve and deserves to go for a handicap at the festival on today's evidence. Although he travels well I think he would get done for toe over 2m5f, so it will be interesting to see what entries he gets
RODOCK
It wasn't all positive. Rodock didn't really come on for his first effort over fences, and never really jumped with enough fluency to muster up a challenge against Whitenzo. It must leave connections with a bit of a quandary, as a repeat of that effort wont win his any prizes in the Arkle, so unless he pleases at home between now and that date in March, he's best overlooked. It wouldnt surprise me if they considered the Champion Hurdle
I dare say that Martin Pipe is even more frustrated that he is unable to get ILNAMAR ready for the festival as on this evidence, (beat Ilnamar easily on his
latest start) this horse would make his presence felt if he made
it.
BEETHOVEN
Narrow Water, & Prokofliev gave me a lot of pleasure today
(especially as I have a little bit on them), but behind Dark N Sharp, the horse that gave me most pleasure today was BEETHOVEN in the last at Ascot
There seems to be a huge amount of hype surrounding newcomers at this time of year, and today's defeat of Ultimate Accolade is a timely reminder that all that glitters isn't necessary gold. With that in mind it was immensely satisfying to watch this debutante win this historically good bumper in the manner of a horse that will win more races once he matures/goes over hurdles next term
THE ROOK
Saturday, 17th February 2001
AGFA HURDLE
Is it dangerous to take the result of the Agfa Hurdle at face value? I'm not so sure. I had a nagging doubt about Geos going into the race, in fact I was very surprised that he went for the race at all, knowing that the ground would barely raceable at that time of the day, (no moving this race forward for Geos' benefit!!!)
I had discussed the race the day before with one of the owners of Mr Markham, and suggested it was worth having a go at these, as Hor La Loi III's fitness record recently is there for all to see, and contrary to comments made this morning particularly on the Morning Line far from revelling in Heavy ground, there is plenty of evidence that Geos doesn't act on the surface, go back two races and you'll recall how Geos palpably failed to get home over 2m4f on a soft surface at ascot, after travelling well throughout.
It was quite clear those connections of Hor La Loi III, and Teeatral has
soused this as they put into effect the perfect race-plan to nullify Geos' potency. The very strong pace turned it into a stamina test, and therefore almost certain that even if he managed to win; Geos wasn't going to look 'pretty'.
If we are being objective, what should we have expected under the circumstances? ...
Well he didn't completely fold up as Hor La Loi III did, who judging by what I saw might have bled again, his champion hurdle bid now must be in tatters. He also stayed on better than Gun'n Roses, possibly the most misguided punt of this season so far, the form lines with Bounce Back was so clear, (Ladbrokes must have enjoyed the finish of the race). Actually I wouldn't be surprised if either Bounce Back or Ben Ewar went for the Champion Hurdle, on a better surface, they wouldn't disgrace the Doumens
What of Geos? He plodded up the hill at one pace, apparently disappointing, but probably did as well as I expected against a decent stayer like Teeatral under the circumstances.
What of the Champion Hurdle?... Obviously Geos' connections will be disappointed about their apparent 'own goal', but at least his preparation is now complete. That performance would probably would be akin to the Ascot performance, or a little worse... not Champion Hurdle form anyway
That said he is capable of a lot better, and whilst they are many observers ready to now pick holes in his wins in the Christmas Hurdle, and Christmas Hurdle, today is the first time over 2miles since coming second in the Ladbroke, that he hasn't recorded an improvement in his performance over his optimum trip.
I'm not sure why it is the current culture to knock a horse after it doesn't run/win, as we expected, and there are recent example where taking this stance has come back to haunt the unforgiving punters amongst us Given that it is almost certain, that the ground is certain to be more to his liking in March, we at Furlong To Go still believe that Geos has excellent eachway claims, and if bookmakers want to push him out, ...then that's OK by us
We will be keeping an eye of the weather as he or Dibea Times, who we have been sweet on since he ran at Auteuil in May, look at the moment to be the horses that will carry our support, ... lets see what happens in the last couple of trials
THE ROOK
Monday, 5 February 2001
CYFOR MALTA ... CAN HE COME BACK?
It was interesting reading the upbeat claims of David Johnson regarding this talented individual. It is symptomatic of punters that a horse with his credentials is dismissed without question simply because he hasn't raced for the best part of two years ... the adage "They don't come back do they" is comfortably thrown into conversation as means of giving this view more weight
As David Johnson pointed out, His mercurial trainer is very apt at training a horse for a particular target, as it has been common knowledge for at least 14months that the stable have been able to as much, or as little work with him, and the leg injury which keep him away from See More Business' Gold Cup seems to be a distant memory
The evidence to suggest that he could go well is there to see, his last two visits to the racecourse resulted in a very easy win the Murphy's Gold Cup (all his rivals were under pressure at the top of the hill), and what now looks an excellent performance in handing a comprehensive beating to the subsequent first and second in the Gold Cup.
Admittedly that was a slowly run affair, and you could've made a case then that he may not quite have got home, however the time off the course has not been wasted and the indicators that I've been given confirm David Johnson's view
I look forward to seeing him again next weekend, but make this comments, there is no doubt that he is being aimed at one race, therefore whatever he does next weekend, he'll be a better horse come Gold Cup day.
SOME OTHER HORSES TO NOTE FROM THE PIPE YARD
I noticed that the stable have purchased Janus Du Cochet (not to be confused with Jair du Cochet who won at Chepstow in December). He appears to be nice prospect, which Christopher Iles, our french form expert confirmed;
JANUS DU COCHET
"Janus Du Cochet is an improving horse - he won the big handicap hurdle for 3 year olds at Auteuil in November. He showed there he handles big fields and a fast pace. The distance was (I think) 2m2f, so Cheltenham should be no problem. As I recall, Le Coudray won the race Janus du Cochet did a couple of years back, so there's precedent for him becoming top-class. The only point to note is that he's only run on soft ground to date". Other newcomers to watch out over the coming weeks are former useful German breds;
ISHANDRAZ, MAJOR LANDO, and MARAGUN
RODOCK
Having gone out on a limb so much about this horse last year, his absence has been very noticeable for me, therefore FURLONG TO GO went "straight to the source" to find out what was occurring.
The stable confirmed that Rodock has been slow to come to hand this term, but has schooled exceptionally well over fences. At the moment that appears to be the plan, however it should be noted that he is being left is several of the major hurdles races at present, and clearly in an open year the thought must be crossing connections' minds to delay his chasing career for another season.
Actually that makes sense, it is late to begin a novice season over fences, (arguably he'd have to have a rushed campaign), and as he's rated around 150
over hurdles, he isn't going to need to improve that much this season to be 'potent'. especially it is almost certain that this talented individual will have improved physically since his poor Aintree effort
A kinder campaign may just be the making of this horse, and his return over either code is awaited with interest
THE ROOK
Saturday, 20th January 2001
GOING GOING GONE!!!
You may have notice the rash of bookmakers ready to start offering you their prices on horses for the festival. Well in our view, unless you've seen a price of a horse you fancy. Hold fire!!!
The weather is surely having an effect of the preparation of horses for the festival, and it seems logical that we may start to get a glut of prospective challengers who will be attempting to make their bids for glory. It is also fair to say that certainly in the novice hurdles, obtaining a high enough rating to get into these races may well become paramount.... The rush to get into races may have begun!!!
THE ROOK
Saturday, 3 January 2001
IS ISTABRAQ ON THE DECLINE?
by THE ROOK
Friday, 2 January 2001
Racing is about opinion and standing by it, if you happen to like to have a wager
It is interesting to observe how much hostility there is to any criticism of the horse, almost to the point of hysteria that surrounded the questioning of Montjeu in the autumn.
I happen to think that there are occasions when you need to remain objective in racing and I think this is such an occasion. There is such a groundswell (justifiably) of opinion wanting him to make history that there surely needs to be some temperance, otherwise there are plenty of punters who could again pay the cost of this from their pocket
I've watched the race now in its entirety, I also showed it to a convertee to the sport, but I'll come back to that.
The most noticeable thing about him was as ever his physique, he clearly has done well during the summer, however I don’t believe for one second that there wasn’t good cause for his absence since last season's Champion Hurdle…. I'll repeat again, If you have a strategy for success which works, it is only the arrogant who'd change that strategy … I don’t believe that Ballydoyle would do that…
That said, to race him at Leopardstown in those conditions was foolhardy in the extreme. Whichever way you read the decision, it doesn’t make sense;
-
The horse has never performed to his best in bottomless conditions, and has been out battled/outstayed in two epic encounters with Pridwell, and Limestone
Lad
-
He was clearly going to need this after his 'absence', and the race was hardly going to be an easy.
-
How fit was he? If you ask a horse to race 80-90% fit in bottomless ground, then surely you are likely to do more harm than good. The highlight of this season thus far has been the poor state of the ground, and very few horses have had what I'd call easy races.
The ground was atrocious, there have been a few meetings over here in Britain where on parts of the track they've splashed through water, but that sort of ground is barely raceable.
For the second race in succession, they took a chance,.. Unfortunately this time it didn’t come off. We all know now that he fell at the last, and whilst it was in itself a satisfactory return under the circumstances, there isn't no doubt here that he appeared to be was coming off probably third best, though I will concede that he may have found more than Stage Affair if asked.
How do you evaluate the performance?… Its very hard to do because we cant say for certain what would have happened. My friend who watched the race was impressed by Stage Affair, who he thought as they approached the last, definitely was going the best… I have to say so did I, however he emptied dramatically after the obstacle. That was a good 'opener' though and it'll be interesting to see whether he can build on that effort, particularly as he also is a much better horse when encountering firmer conditions. Moscow Flyer deserves credit as he gave all of these bar Istabraq weight and outstayed them. Both of these deserve to enter calculation for Cheltenham
What of Istabraq? … Thankfully he's OK, after a horrible looking fall, however it wasn’t his best effort regardless of the fall, or the prevailing ground conditions. I don’t think we should get any more carried away than that. There clearly wasn't any suggestion that the wheels had completely come off, … more a hint that the inevitable may be happening, that with age his 'dominance' over his rival could be diminishing… more racecourse evidence is required to suggest anything else
The announcement that he is to now likely to take in the AIG Champion Hurdle before Cheltenham is therefore welcome. I'll let the sceptical amongst you deliberate whether this announcement isn't counter-productive, as it only lends to the perception that all hasn’t been well, and clearly is an afterthought
THE ROOK
GEOS
by THE ROOK
Friday, 29 December 2000
Since I've stated for months that Geos was a likely improver this season, I find it hard to understand why he hasn’t received the credit he deserves for his two wins this season. There is something 'Sinndareqsue' about it
Since getting touched off in the Ladbroke. Geos' official rating has risen from 127 to 165, and quite clearly the horse is still on the upgrade. I hope some of my readers took the hint and have supported him since he came from France. I've always liked him; I've made no secret of that. I've noted the steady improvement he made up until Newbury last season, after which the improvement has been more rapid. He has continued that this season, improving with each of his three efforts, which seems to be conveniently overlooked when excuses are made for horses he beat, or who disappointed
I don’t think anybody has suggested that he could yet overturn Istabraq, but he's a hell of an eachway bet, and there are plenty of punters 'handily placed' at big odds with that wager in mind.
THE ROOK
A review of the season so far _ who'd I'd select if the festival was
today?
by THE ROOK
Friday, 29 December 2000
Now that we are more than half way through this season, I thought I'd pencil my thoughts on where I think we stand with regards to the Cheltenham's Festival. As promised here is my review on the season so far, it's also a useful piece with our Cheltenham 2001 Feature in mind. As in October, these again are not our final selections, which will be published nearer the time, more a case of who'd I do if the festival was tomorrow.
There isn't much doubt that the weather has had an effect on the preparations, of horses thus far, and there is a good chance that many of the Cheltenham winners this time around either haven't yet appeared at the time of writing, or have performed poorly on energy sapping ground. As is October I'll do it in racecard order
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13TH
2.00 The Capel Cure Sharp Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Whilst he won nicely earlier this week, I do think Ned Kelly is going to be a better horse when asked to go over a trip and is therefore worth opposing in the opening race, particularly as this is a division that hasn't yet fully taken shape. My initial choice, Seek hasn't yet seen a racetrack, and I'd gamble that he may go to Aintree rather than this meeting... it's a tactic Jim Old loves to deploy. I'm also looking forward to seeing last season's bumper winner Joe Cullen go hurdling, but this bottomless ground means he is likely to aimed at a backend campaign, then again he was last year. Four horses that have run which caught my eye were St Pirran, victor of Razor Blade at Cheltenham last time out, and Fondmort and Impek, who fought out a great battle for the opening on King George day... As much I was impressed by Fondmort, I couldn't help but think that the light-framed Impek, is a horse that is going to appreciate a better surface, and he could leave that form behind, so at present I'd go with him
Selection __ Impek
Eachway Possible(s) __ Seek, or Blue
2.35 The Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Chase
Best Mate, Dusk Duel, and Knife Edge dominate currently the Arkle Challenge Trophy picture, and you wouldn't be looking part them at present, although the four year olds imports Iris Bleu, (disappointing on his debut, but clearly is better than that) and Imperial de Thaix (also now with Martin Pipe after his easy win at Chepstow). I like Best Mate the most, but still have in the back of my mind, his defeat in the opener, when he was done for toe after an ordinary early gallop. He is a potential Gold Cup winner of the future and this trip might, just might in this company, be too sharp. With that comments lingering in my mind, I'll go with Knife Edge, who is hard to fault in his efforts thus far
Selection __ Knife Edge
Eachway Possible(s) __ Iris Bleu
3.15 SMURFIT CHAMPION HURDLE
The reigning champion hurdler Istabraq sets out on what could be a historic fourth Champion Hurdle.... and has never had a better opportunity for a horse to win a presented fourth consecutive race. Unfortunately, it is my genuine disappointment is that this dominance is more a reflection of the weakness of the opposition, than a reflection on his dominance, but that isn't his fault. Ashley Park's demise is an added disappointment.
On the face, He is well ahead officially on his rivals and therefore as long as that remains the case it is hard to see him being dethroned. However racing is simply about who is rated highest, its about doing the job on the track where it matters, and thus far in the main Istabraq has always delivered. It is unfortunate that his intended reappearance race has been postponed, as there has been so much rumour about his well being, that it would have been interesting to se how he performed. Connections clearly had problems with his preparation last year and took a calculated risk, which came off; he won well without being spectacular.
Can he be beaten? ... The answer has to be ...Yes. Although he is without doubt the best hurdler of the 1990s, the fact is that father time is sure catching up with him, and whilst sound judgement will mean that he'll only face what we'd consider tough race before then, there is good reason to at the very least keep an open mind. I'm not attempting to denigrate his outstanding record, but all horses including Istabraq have weaknesses, there to be exposed. Those who take the view that this is implausible, should remind themselves whether they held the same view after Montjeu sluiced home in the King George ... many of those pundits had to eat their words with his subsequent disappointments...Every horse, including the great Istabraq is fallible.
What then is Istabraq's Achilles heel? ... He has two, one is bottomless ground, which he doesn't appreciate as all, but that is likely at Cheltenham in March, the other one is when his turn of foot is blunted, either by races being run very slowly, or very aggressively. When his stamina is stretched, when that potent sting he has displayed throughout his career is blunted, he has looked vulnerable.... mortal even.
It is conceivable that the way to beat him is if the sting is drawn out of him, reminiscent of the tactic employed by Calzado and Lanzarote against Comedy of Errors in the seventies ... Limestone Lad, and Pridwell both have proven that he is beatable under these circumstances, and I for one do think that tactic would work over the minimum trip ... of course you have to first have a horse good enough to exploit the tactic!!!.
Looking at the opponents, there isn't much to get exited about... Hor da Loi Iii for the second season following ran well below expectations first time out. Barton is still open to improvement this term, and will be interesting in a strongly run 2miler, but looks safely held by Geos whose 'win' in the Christmas confirmed the impression that he is vastly improved, and will again to continue between and Cheltenham.... Definitely the current Champion Hurdle bet especially as it is rumoured that Istabraq might go straight to Cheltenham, if Leopardstown is called of without a race, or one if he went for the Irish Champion.
Selection __ Geos (eachway)
Eachway Possible(s) __ Stage Affair, or Rodock
3.55 William Hill National Hunt Handicap Chase
This is too hard to call at the moment but I still like Ad Hoc, who I always thought was made for this race, and his fall in the Hennessy Gold Cup lends weight to my view that he is a talent. Fortunately that fall has taken the hype away from him, and a quieter build up may reap a reward
Selection __ Ad Hoc
Eachway Possible(s) __ Coq Hardi Diamond
4.30 Fulke Walwyn Handicap Chase
This tends to be used as a Grand National trial, and it's too hard to call, that said it is the sort of race that a horse like Somemanforoneman, who ran so well behind Dusk Duel last time at Cheltenham may get in off of a decent weight
Selection __ Somemanforoneman
Eachway Possible(s) __
5.05 Ladbrokes Casinos Hurdle Final
Nothing that has run in the qualifiers stands out, and I'll pass until nearer the time
Selection __
Eachway Possible(s) __
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 14TH
2.00 Royal & Sun Alliance Novices' Hurdle
Unlike, the opener on the first day, the second days opener looks very promising, and competitive; Liss A Paoriagh, Be My Royal, Ned Kelly (should he be aimed here), all have impressed in their races in ireland, as has Run For Paddy, who lost nothing when making Mister Banjo fight all the way up the cheltenham hill last time out. Prince Madoc, Chives, Timber King and Skippers Cleugh, all have impressed me with the attitude on the track, and are worth considering (this looks like throwing up a decent bunch of chasers next term). I would favour the Irish trio at the moment (Liss A Paoriagh, Be My Royal, and Ned Kelly), with Ned Kelly marginally getting the call over Be My Royal, however if we ever get a wet cheltenham Skippers Cleugh, so impressive in the north this term would be an outstanding eachway alternative
Selection __ *Ned Kelly
Eachway Possible(s) __ Skippers Cleugh
*_ I deliberately haven't considered Baracouda for this as I think he's more likely to go for the Stayers, if he did I'd have no hesitation in selecting him
2.35 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
This division hasn't taken shape at all and has been affect by the adverse weather conditions. The Irish challenge seems to have evaporated, and nothing from the old guard looks viable, Frozen Groom in particular ahs been very disappointing. Flagship Uberailles proved his well-being, by winning the Tingle Creek Chase, however how good the form is must be questionable especially with Cenkos, Direct Route and Tiutchev failing miserably to run to form, the adverse weather conditions has clearly affected their preparation. Edredon Bleu ran an honourable race in the King George, and at present appears to be on course. His record at Cheltenham makes me prefer him to Flagship Uberailles, however I'd expect things to alter as the weather improves
Selection __ Edredon Bleu
Eachway Possible(s) __ Direct Route
3.15 Coral Cup Hurdle
Far, far too early to call this, however I have a good record in the race, and I'd be looking at a decent novice being aimed at the race. One that springs to mind is Sheer Genius, who found 3m2f too far last time at Cheltenham, but out battle Fnan over the Coral Cup course on his previous effort
Selection __ Sheer Genius
Eachway Possible(s) __ Fnan
3.55 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase
In October I said "The Sun Alliance Chase could be a great race if No Discount, Monsignor, Katarino, Le Coudray, Limestone Lad, Best Mate, Oa Baldixe and Sackville all survived til March". Most of these have fallen by the wayside, however Sackville has established himself as one the leading fancies by lowering Limestone Lad's colours last time out. However Bacchanal's demolition job at Kempton justifiably makes him a warm favourite, and at present you wouldn't look past him, though Shotgun Willy is better than the form shown behind Bacchanal and he'll get a lot closer around a left handed track. I'd go with Bacchanal at the moment but I think there are still horses to play their hand
Selection __ Bacchanal
Eachway Possible(s) __ Imperial de Thaix
4.30 National Hunt Chase
I noticed that Cashmans has Lakefield Rambler down as favourite for the National Hunt Chase, and this former top class pointer could set his rivals a merry dance, and might be hard to beat if he got home over the trip
Selection __ Lakefield Rambler
Eachway Possible(s) __ Silver Lake
5.05 Mildmay Of Flete Handicap Chase
Again the adverse weather makes the situation unclear, however Go Roger Ro, winner of the Tripleprint, and Gallant Moss who impressed at Ascot last time out, creep into contention. So as to nominate something this time around I'd go with Gallant Moss
Selection __ Gallant Moss
Eachway Possible(s) __
5.40 Weatherbys Champion Festival Bumper
Another race yet to formulate itself. I was very impressed with The Phair Crier at Chepstow on Wednesday, however he is an awful bet as he required genuine good ground, with some juice in it, to be anywhere remotely operative. In Contrast has look impressive on his latest two starts, but I didn't like the way he cocked his jaw over the Championship course last time out, and I don't think you want defective steering against top class opponents. I expect that he'll have a different type of bridle/bit on next time he appears. I have still heard positive comments about Jameson, and Kickham, and at the moment I'll stick with Kickham, an impressive winner of his only start, and see what unfolds over the coming months
Selection __ Kickham
Eachway Possible(s) __
THURSDAY, MARCH 15TH
2.00 Elite Racing Club Triumph Hurdle
The french appear to have a very strong final day on paper, in fact I was thinking that there must be a greater chance of foreign participation at the festival this season, as a result of their recent successes.... this will confuse the picture even further.
Bilboa, and Jair du Cochet head the current market. I was impressed with both on these at Chepstow last week, however more so with the diminutive Bilboa, who on better ground would make a better job of tailing her nemesis. At the time of writing Jair du Cochet is up for sale, and I think there are plenty of trainers who would buy this attractive gelding ... to go chasing"...
Another attractive is Dibea Times, pinpointed by Christopher Iles on his "Focus on France" page as a horse to watch out for. I was very taken by the ease by which he disposed of a big field under of a penalty. After Fordmont we should maybe then take note of Azertyuiop, who is already a winner of three bumpers and a hurdle, and clearly is a useful prospect.
I think Kadarann and Montreal are better than they are being credit for, and both may improve on their current form on a better surface, particular Montreal who sunk without trace at Leicester when a 1/8 shot!!!
Here are a few more to wet the palette;
Rostropovich _ bought out of Aiden O'Brien's yard. There are many judges who think he'll make up into a decent hurdler. The same comments apply to
Adelphi Theatre _ who is now in training with Mark Pitman.
Jocko Glasses _ My first impression is that he may find the track too demanding, but is a useful recruit from the flat, who couldn't have been more impressive at kempton on Wednesday.
Ravenswood _ Progressive handicapper who could make up into a useful juvenile.
Fruit Defundu _ A winner on the flat in France, and is one of several purchases Noel Meade made from France, who I put into my horses to follow section. He sluiced up on his hurdling debut and could be anything
Others winners from France that are worth consider are
Ishandraz (GER)
Dream With Me
Snob Wells
Saone et Loire
Out of Control
(All of these are in Furlong To Go's list of horses to follow)
Its still all up for grabs, but at the moment I would have to side with Bilboa in the hope that I'm right about the ground. Of the others that have run Dibea Times, and Fruit Defendu look interesting, but I'd watch the entries for the appearances of some of the unraced animals I've listed.
Selection __ Bilboa
Eachway Possible(s) __ Fruit Defendu
2.35 Bonusprint Stayers Hurdle
This division hasn't really sorted itself out yet, but its hard to look past Baracouda, such an impressive winner of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot last month. It is easy to go overboard on performance, but that came from the top draw, and this novice will be very hard to beat whichever race he goes for at Cheltenham. Maybe Le Sauvignon his conqueror at Auteuil on his previous start is the main threat, but he failed to deliver at Aintree last April, and may simply not be as suited to British conditions as Baracouda. I don't think it will be easy with horses like Anzum and Limestone Lad in the field, and they will make it a severe test for a novice... but at the moment I'll stick with him. Youlneverwalkalone seems to being kept in reserve in case something happens to Istabraq. He definitely would come into the picture should he be allowed his head
Selection __ Baracouda
Eachway Possible(s) __ Youlneverwalkalone
Selection __
3.15 TOTE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
First Gold's impressive success in the King George VI Chase has elevated him to the top of the Gold Cup market, (hopefully some of you took Christopher Iles hint, and were on at 25/1 for the King George). Now the aim is the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and many a deliberation has centered around his ability to jump around Cheltenham.
Even the best horses can get caught out at Cheltenham, however I don't hold with the view that he may not cope with Cheltenham. Any horse that jumps/wins well around Auteuil, should relish a track like Cheltenham, Mick Fitzgerald made an interesting observation about him today he said "have you ever seen a picture of him making a serious error?". All the pictures I've seen suggest his technique is particularly sound, and my only reservation about the king George; The height variations which differ more than on french circuits, was answered with aplomb.
As for the ground, Tuesday's conditions were some of the quickest he's ever encountered, and I'm certain that Francois Doumen is on record as saying that he believes that this horse may be best on good ground. Fast ground is another matter and should it come up again on the fast side I'm certain he wont run.
What of the other market leaders?
See More Business __ I've liked See More Business ever since seeing him win his point to point with Richard Barber, however for the second time in succession in a championship race, we've seen the 'gameplan' out-manoeuvred...
In the King George, whilst he may have not run up his best (probable), he found the pace of the race was strong enough to unsettle him early on, and when the pace was quickened going onto the final circuit, you could see he was already being stretched and as a result was getting lower and more disorganised.
In the Gold Cup, off of a slower pace the same thing happened and See More Business couldn't dominate his rivals, whilst 'A.P.' dictated, and then stretched the field. This strategy is obvious these days, and for him to win in my view requires connections to come up with something new. The cracks in his jumping technique, which appeared to have been smoothed over by the application of blinkers, seem to be reappearing as well
If you are weighing up the possibilities for next year's Gold Cup, ... if you believe See More Business can reverse form with First Gold, and Florida Pearl, you have to believe that he's going to deploy a different strategy than the ones he employed on these two occasions, and whatever he does in the Pillar Chase, or Aon Chase I'd want that question answered before I'd back him.
Florida Pearl __ Appears to be being trained for, and he'll improve on his second placing in the King George. I don't think he was given too much to do, more he lost positions as a result of errors which illustrates the importance of getting horses into their rhythms before riding a race. I think he has decnet place claims again but I'd like to see him ridden more aggressively before passing final judgement on him.
Native Upmanship __ Must be considered on the strength of his form which Florida Pearl but like him, there must be a slight doubt about him getting home
Legal Right __ Very impressive at Ascot last time out, but is perennially lame and unattractive unless he parades on the day
Malborough __ Cant hide my enthusiasm for him and his win in the Chubb Chase only confirmed that he is still on the upgrade. He has the perfect gameplan for a Gold Cup, being able to travel well throughout a race, and then quicken between or after the last. I was very pleased he missed the King George, and that decision may ultimately mean that this 'embryo' could develop into a top class performer, rather than falling to pieces, after a bad effort at Kempton. It was very interesting listening to Mick Fitzgerald taking this afternoon, on the Racing Channel. There wasn't much doubt that had he run, that he would have been on this horse, and I think that that thought is worth bearing in mind should both he and See More Business line up in March.... definitely one to keep he right side of
Lord Noelie __ Clearly is better than he has shown thus far, but will need to improve to figure... but definitely has the ability to do so on his preferred ground
Cyfor Malta __ He has always possessed that presence that decent horses always appear to have. it should be remembered how supreme he was over See More Business before that horses success in the Gold Cup. His return in the Pillar Chase is eagerly awaited.
Nick Dundee __ Such a brilliant talent, until his tumble at Cheltenham two years ago, who has already performed one miracle by making it back to the racecourse, never mind winning at Navan... Does he still have what it takes to go to the top?... If he stands training, definitely. However as much as I would like to see it, I can't let sentiment rule my head... Hopefully he make his presence felt in one of the Irish trails
Rince Ri __ I still note how well he was going when falling three out last year, and whilst he may not have won, he surely would have 'got involved'. Again he can make his presence felt in one of the Irish trails
Others I'd consider are Alexander Banquet, and Toto Toscato, but both of those have yet the world alight this season, and need to impress in one of the remaining trials
Its hard to see past First Gold at present, however if he has a weakness (apart from the ground) it is him being harried into errors, as has occurred in a few races in France. As the tactic will need to get him operating first at Cheltenham, how it can be deployed is unclear.
Selection __ First Gold
Eachway Possible(s) __ Malborough
3.55 Christie's Foxhunter Chase
Selection __ Another interesting division with Its Himself, Grimley Gale, Mighty Moss, Gunner Welburn, Last Option, Sheltering, and Cavalero again under pressure from the young pretenders like Lord Harry, winner of the John Corbett at Stratford, and Union Man, who has yet to jump a regulation fence in anger, but was the buzz of the point to point fraternity at the end of last season. His move to Henrietta Knight's yard is intriguing, and its possible he may be aimed at this race.
To add garnish on that, why not add Unsinkable Boxer, who picked up an injury after leaving Martin Pipe's yard, and never raced from Francois Doumen's stables. Now with Robert Alner, he will be soon being prepared for qualification with a view to capturing this prize.
Union Man is an exceptional talent, but he'll need the prefect preparation to give away experience. Sheltering proved how good he was at Punchestown when winning the main hunter chase on the card in a time 3 seconds faster than Commanche Court achieved in winning the Heineken Gold Cup (run on the same day). If he puts it altogether, he looks to be the one to be on.
Selection __ Sheltering
Eachway Possible(s) __ Lord Harry
4.30 Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Again the picture remained unclear however a horse like Iris Bleu will probably get in off of a decent mark and I offer him as a suggestion for now
Selection __ Iris Bleu
Eachway Possible(s) __
5.05 Cathcart Chase
Selection __ Fadalko, Exit Swinger, Lady Cricket, and Dusk Duel are four names that immediately spring to mind. Conditions are most likely to favour Fadalko, and Dusk Duel, and at this stage of the season I'd want to be on one of them ... Dusk Duel who patently found Kempton too sharp, yet stroll won there on Tuesday gets the vote
Selection __ Dusk Duel
Eachway Possible(s) __
5.40 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle
A little too early to say again. I'd like to see what the weather does over the next couple of weeks before deciding.
Selection __
Eachway Possible(s) __
A Prediction for Cheltenham 2001 ...
by the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse
14 August 2000
By way of a prelude to FURLONG TO GO's list of horses to follow over jumps this season, we decided purely for fun to make a prediction for what we think might happen at next year's festival.
The 4 Long Pole and Christopher Iles are tied up with their projects, and The Flatman, ......well he's a flat expert isn't he!!!, We've therefore call on our experts of failure 'The 4 Horsemen' to try and pick out some winners for a change
Zzzz !!! ... Zzzz !!! ... um is it the Ebor Meeting already? ... No? then why have you woken us? ... you want us to do
WHAT?!! ... but we pick losers, ... you what ? ...
Oh Alright !!!
We Are The 4Horsemen of the Apocalypse.....er normally
A bet on these horses is DOOMED !!! ... er, but not in this instance
!!!
"The Boss has asked us to take a cursory glance over the current Cheltenham betting to see the horses will feel will play a hand come next March.
CHAMPION HURDLE
Could be the easiest of the lot, as Istabraq on the face on it appears street ahead of his current rivals and therefore even money would appear to be extremely generous. A lot can happen between now and then and just on his fitness alone we wouldnt suggest that such a short price is taken.
That surely though evades the issues. ... Can he be beaten? ... On the basis of his four runs at Cheltenham, the answer has to be yes, as although he is unbeaten, only on one occasion can you say that he performed anywhere what he's normally capable of. This is not as some may suggest an attempt to caste any doubt on his ability, far from it, he is without doubt the best hurdler of the 1990s, the fact is that father time is sure catching up with him, and whilst sound judgement will mean that he'll only face what we'd consider tough race before then, there is good reason to at the very least keep an open mind.
His strength in the market is a reflection of the weakness of the opposition. Hor da Loi Iii ran well behind him at Cheltenham but in truth ran well below expectation due to breaking blood vessels early on in the season. He is due to come back into training shortly and should make an impression this term. Stage Affair ran creditably for a novice and surely will come again for the experience. Frankly outside that, the obvious contenders are sparse.
Barton quoted by many bookmakers will surely go chasing, but may be interesting if he doesn't, Snow Drop is a useful filly, but there wasn't much of her, and we suspect she may find it hard this year over here, she'd stand a better chance of success in France, and we wouldn't be surprised if we saw less of her.
If he is dethroned, then you're really looking for the lightly raced horses which are potentially open to improvement, such as Geos, vastly improved by the end of the season, but he may be going chasing, Rodock, could have improved a lot if he has matured into his frame, Seebald, (who is surely better than his last run, but also may be going chasing), Grand Seigneur who looked good on both his British starts, and Ashley Park (Open to an enormous amount of improvement if his 4th in the Champion Hurdle is anything to go by). There are also top class horses of f of the flat who could make an immediate impact, I'm Proposin, listed class when he was with John Dunlop is now with Noel Chance, the Ebor winner Vicious Circle, who served notice that he is as good as ever with his good run at Glorious Goodwood, even the likes of Life is Life, (5th in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot), Cardiff Arms, (better than his British form suggests) and Yavana's Pace could make the grade if they translated their very best form to the jumps
Of all the horses listed Ashley Park is the most interesting and this former Group winner on the flat looks to have all it takes to go to the top over hurdles, and if we were forced to make a choice now it would be with him
GOLD CUP
A big void has been left in this division due to the demise of Gloria Victis, Strong Promise, Lake Kariba, and French Holly last term. Again as was the case when See More Business obliged in 1999, there has to be a question about the value of the form. Whilst Looks Like Trouble should always be considered with condition nearly always now in his favour at Cheltenham, but like Istabraq, it would be unwise to take a blinkered view. He has thrown in a few below par performance, for which no rationale has been provided, and as Gloria Victis suggested, he could be vulnerable to improvers...
Are there any?
Looking at the current market, there appear to be many suitors for his crown;
See More Business ~ Age is against him, and whilst he's still a horse who deserves serious consideration, its hard to see him regaining his crown, if any of his younger rivals improve
Florida Pearl ~ A difficult horse to leave out of the equation as he's one of the best of these quoted, but like Wayward lad is vulnerable at this trip. He could be interesting, if as expected, he is given a more aggressive preparation for the race this term
Cyfor Malta ~ Very good on his day, and its refreshing to know of his return. A light campaign is certain for this horse, so a view may need to be taken one way or the other
Then are horses coming up from last two season's crop of novices that could come into the reckoning include the likes of, Native Upmanship, Commanche Court, Alexander Banquet, Paris Pike, Toto Toscato, Beau, Rince Ri, Princeful, Brother of Iris, Legal Right, Malborough and Lord Noelie, are names to conjure with
There are also the chasing debutantes
Limestone Lad ~ More likely to be Gold Cup bound if he takes to chasing than say Monsignor, he is interesting, but surely he'll need his ground to be really 'potent'
Barton ~ Cannot entertain this horse, as good as he is you cannot be sure he'll get the trip, especially if he retains all that pace and I'd be surprised if this is no more than an afterthought that a conceived plan. You can legitimately argue that he'd be more likely to go for the Champion Hurdle
Monsignor ~ As good a horse as he threatens to be, there is no suggestion that he will be aimed for Gold, so you would think he will have to excel in his novice races before being entertained
France could serve up an interesting challenge this year; First Gold, ~ a top class steeplechaser with Francois Doumen who could be campaigned at this race this term, as might stablemate Fulip, last seen here going lame just behind Florida Pearl in the Sun Alliance Chase, but a winner since in his native France.
Finally of course there are the unknown quantities, and those of you have read the FOCUS on FRANCE piece on Martin Pipe's new import, will no doubt already be aware of the potential of Kaki Crazy and Gad'zart, who won the Prix Montgomery (an equivalent of the Hennessy) last autumn who may transpire to be 'Cheltenham horses' if they do make this grade
The picture is too hazy for confidence, howevr at this stage, preference is with Cyfor Malta, as he has always demonstrated that certain touch of class, and it should be remembered how supreme he was over See More Business before that horses success in the Gold Cup. 20/1 seems a fair price to us at this stage.
Others that would be short-listed would be
[I] Looks Like Trouble;
[ii] Florida Pearl
[iii] Kaki Crazy
[iv] Malborough; who may be very interesting [a] now they learnt how best to ride, and jump him, and [b] if the injury sustained in the Scottish National wasn't as seriously as first feared
[v] Paris Pike, who could turn out to be too slow for a Gold Cup, but was progressing with leaps and bounds at the end of the season, and
[vi] Rince Ri, travelling very well with coming to grief three out last year
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION
There is a very good chance that there will be a changing of the guard in this division. As good as Edredon Bleu and Direct Route are, Flagship Uberailles, Cenkos, Decoupage and Tiutchev look an exceptional quartet of youngsters and the meetings between this sextet could provide some of the best races of the season. We would nominate at this stage Tiutchev, a brilliant winner of the Arkle, and Cenkos, who make Get Real battle all the way at Punchestown, and already has the scalp of Edredon Bleu. The former gets the nod
STAYERS HURDLE
This is very hard to call at this stage and many of the horses listed in the betting could go chasing. One that wont is Teeatral who hated that last year. Very few horses progressed as he did last year, and if we had to nominate a horse it would be him
NOVICE RACES ~ HURDLES
Life is Life, Im Proposin and Cardiff Arms already mentioned with regards to the Champion hurdle could make their mark in the novice division, where there are likely to face stiff opposition from the likes of Quadco, a ridiculously easy winner of the Aintree bumper, Joe Cullen, the winner of the Cheltenham equivalent, Inca, strongly fancied for both events, and Tuesday who improved with his racing last term. Others to watch out for include Sabrinsky bought by Noel Meade who had decent form on the flat in France, as will no doubt be well placed his trainer and Montreal, another French import who has 'chaser' written all over him who may be kept from that by Martin Pipe. He's one to note for 18 months time, but it is encouraging that he posted a useful time at Auteuil on his most recent starts
I think all of these will win races, but as we're being restricted we'll go
SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE ~ Quadco
SUN ALLIANCE NOVICE HURDLE ~ Montreal
NOVICE RACES ~ STEEPLECHASES
The Arkle Challenge Trophy is a very unclear as useful sorts Best Mate, Barton, Blue Royal, Rodock, Seebald, Sausalito Bay, Oa Baldixe, and Nomadic all may be being aimed over fences. We like all of these, but Blue Royal (1st Preference) and Rodock are real stamps of horse and at this trip may be the best of these. The jokeress of the pack may be the 4-year-old Cle de Lune already a winner of fence in France who may still be eligible for novice chases. If she is, she will be entitled to all the weight concessions possible and could be anything
THE ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY ~ Blue Royal
The Sun Alliance Chase could be a great race if No Discount, Monsignor, Katarino, Le Coudray, Limestone Lad, Best Mate, Oa Baldixe and Sackville all survived til March. Again Cle de Lune, and maybe Kaki Crazy should be noted, howevr it wouldnt surprise us if Martin Pipe didn't have another string to his bow with Font Romeu. This horse is crying out for fences and the fact he is being so well looked after, is an indication of how highly this horse is held. His run at last year's Festival confirmed his potential and also that exaggerated waiting tactics are required. Don't be surprised if he steps up on all previous form if put over the larger obstacles
THE SUN ALLIANCE CHASE ~ If he doesn't go for gold Monsignor could win a vintage division, but with that thought in mind, Martin pipe's trio are worth bearing in mind
OTHER RACES
FESTIVAL BUMPER ~ The appearance of Monsignor's full brother (as yet unnamed) sold for 200,000g at Doncaster sales will no doubt be eagerly awaited for, but bar him its too early to say
FOXHUNTERS CHASE ~ Another interesting division with Cavalero under supreme pressure from the young pretenders Lord Harry, Satchmo, and Union Man, who has yet to jump a regulation fence in anger, but is the buzz of the point to point game at the moment. To sprinkle a garnish on that, why not add Unsinkable Boxer, who picked up an injury after leaving Martin Pipe's yard, and never raced from Francois Doumen's stables. Now with Robert Alner, he will be soon being prepared for qualification with a view to capturing this prize.
Union Man is an exceptional talent, but he'll need the prefect preparation to give away experience. At this stage we'd marginally lean toward John Corbett winner Lord Harry
HANDICAP CHASES
The unexposed Exit Swinger served notice of his potential on Whitbread Gold Cup day. As that was his first experience of British fences gain don't be too surprised if he were to improve significantly this term. A handicap chase, or even a race like the Cathcart could be his for the taking"
TRIUMPH HURDLE
An absolute lottery at this stage, but Dibea Times, and Bell D'Anjou are already winners in France, who have purchased to race over here. Another nice prospect is Ishandraz (GER) who has run creditably on the flat. Looking at horse on the flat over here, Zyz, and Rostropovich, are nicely bred sorts who could make an impact in better juvenile events. We'll take a gamble and go with Dibea Times
It'll be interesting to see how this pans out over the winter......
NOW CAN WE GO BACK TO SLEEP ?!!
The 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse
WHO'LL BE WINNING IN MARCH ?
By The 4Long Pole
1 October 2000
Purely as a bit of fun, lets see how many Festival winners we can predict, ... These are my initial thoughts
TUESDAY, MARCH 13TH
2.00 The Capel Cure Sharp Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Selection ~ Seek
2.35 The Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Chase
Selection ~ Blue Royal
3.15 SMURFIT CHAMPION HURDLE
Selection ~ Ashley Park,
eachway ~ Hindiana
3.55 William Hill National Hunt Handicap Chase
Selection ~ Ad Hoc
4.30 Fulke Walwyn Handicap Chase
Selection ~ Kaki Crazy
5.05 Ladbrokes Casinos Hurdle Final
Selection ~ Font Romeu
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 14TH
2.00 Royal & Sun Alliance Novices’ Hurdle
Selection ~ Montreal
2.35 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Selection ~ Cenkos
3.15 Coral Cup Hurdle
Selection ~
3.55 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase
Selection ~
4.30 National Hunt Chase
Selection ~
5.05 Mildmay Of Flete Handicap Chase
Selection ~
5.40 Weatherbys Champion Festival Bumper
Selection ~ Kickham
THURSDAY, MARCH 15TH
2.00 Elite Racing Club Triumph Hurdle
Selection ~
2.35 Bonusprint Stayers Hurdle
Selection ~ Youlneverwalkalone
3.15 TOTE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
Selection ~ Cyfor Malta
Eachway ~ First Gold3.55 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase
Selection ~ Its Himself
4.30 Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Selection ~
5.05 Cathcart Chase
Selection ~ Fadalko
5.40 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle
Selection ~
I may do this again around Christmas time
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