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Analysis & Selections by
ðE`
RØøK
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this ´second opinion´ provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent each-way claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at each-way
odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race 's analysis.
Up
to the minute racing news....
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Cheltenham
´04
Cheltenham _ Old Course
Tuesday, 16 March ´04.
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨First¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--: Letheby & Christopher Supreme
Novices` Hurdle [gr. I] 2Miles~110yds £100,000 - for novice four-year-olds and
upwards. Weights 4-y-o 11st, 5-y-o and upwards 11st 7lb, fillies and mares
allowance 7lb. Entries closed January 28, 2003 (106 entries), entries released,
Monday, February 2, forfeit stage February 24. Five-day confirmation stage March
11, final declaration stage 10.15am, March 15.
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªT¯¯|¯¯THE¯¯|¯¯POST¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Accordion Etoile, Dictum (GER), Euro Leader, Grande Jete (SAF), Grand Champêtre
(FR), Liberia (FR), My Will (FR) and Pak Jack (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨NEXT¨TIME¨OUT`º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from NEXT TIME OUT ´º4 - our feature which; each week, provides a list of horses to follow during the remainder of the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Cardenas (GER) and Dad's Elect (GER)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Day one, as ever opens with the Supreme Novices Hurdle. One hundred and six horses were originally entered for this event, each of them seeking to add their name to the illustrious group of previous winners which includes Vulgan (1948), Flying Bolt (1964),
L´Escargot (1968), Bula (1970), Beacon Light (1976), Golden Cygnet (1978), Hors La Loi III (1999), Like-A-Butterfly (2003) and of course Back In Front last season.
Here´s my selected from those entered and likely to be going for this prize:
ACCORDION ETOILE - trained by
Paul Nolan
ALBUHERA - trained by Paul
Nicholls
BACK TO BEN ALDER - trained
by Nicky Henderson
BIG MOMENT - trained by
Amanda Perrett
BOLD BISHOP - trained by
Jonjo O´Neill
CARDENAS (GER) - trained by
Mario Hofer
CONTRABAND - trained by
Martin Pipe
DAD´S ELECT (GER)- trained
by Charlie Mann
DICTUM (GER) - trained by
Susan Nock
EURO LEADER - trained by
Willie Mullins
FLEET STREET - trained by
Nicky Henderson
FONTANESÌ - trained by
Martin Pipe
GARDE CHAMPÊTRE (FR) -
trained by Paul Nicholls
GRANDE JETE (SAF) - trained
by Nicky Henderson
HOWLE HILL - trained by Alan
King
KADOUNT (FR) - trained by
Alan King
LACDOUDAL (FR) - trained by
Philip Hobbs
LIBERIA (FR)- trained by
Nicky Henderson
LINGO - trained Jonjo O'Neill
LOCKSMITH - trained by Martin
Pipe
MARIA ROLLINS - trained by
Pat Fahey
MARK THE MAN - trained by
Noel Meade
MON VILLEZ (FR) - trained by
Nicky Henderson
MY WILL (FR) - trained by
Paul Nicholls
PAK JACK - trained by Philip
Hobbs
PERLE DE PUCE (FR) - trained
by Nicky Henderson
ROYAL ALPHABET - trained by
Willie Mullins
SADLER´S WINGS - trained by
Willie Mullins
SINDAPOUR - trained by Martin
Pipe
STEPPES OF GOLD - trained by
Nicky Richards
THESIS - trained by Venetia
Williams
TROUBLE AT BAY - trained by
Alan King
TUSK - trained by Henrietta
Knight
WATSON LAKE - trained by Noel
Meade
ZUM SEE - trained by Noel
Meade
|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: The favourite has won the last
two renewals of this race and no doubt there will be plenty of punters who may
consider backing Lingo, formerly useful on the flat for Linda Ramsden last
season, who has progressed with each run over hurdles, most notably the Tolworth
Hurdle at Sandown in January. On that occasion he travelled smoothly before
coming to challenge Perle De Puce (who beat him at Ascot the time before) at the
last. It's hard to say for certain whether he would have won if Perle De Puce
had stood up at the last, especially as he didn't find as much off of the bridle
as had seemed likely at the time and in such a competitive heat which is likely
to be so strongly run, is there any guarantee that he will find as much as
expected off of the bridle this time around? ...we're not so sure.
What are the options? Horses like
Bold Bishop (who beat Simoun last time out at Sandown), Albuhera (who has
shown such good form throughout the season) and Big Moment,
(good efforts behind Cornish Rebel and Starzaan in his last two
races) are likely to prove popular, however we do feel that Ireland in the shape
of Brave Inca, Maria Rollins and Sadler's Wings would appear to have the
strongest hand to play. Brave Inca has done very little wrong this season and
his defeat of Newmill and Maria Rollins at Leopardstown represents really decent
form which entitles him to go close here. However, Sadler's Wings really excites
me and there aren't very many novices this season that have shown the
changes of gears he has needed in his two races at Punchestown and Navan.
Although the bare bones of the form suggests he has a bit to find, I would
expect him to find such improvement and we'll make him our first selection of
the Festival.
We'll be
looking to single out potential each-way alternatives for each race and in this
race there would be several candidates. Martin Pipe does well with his
four-year-olds in this race therefore I would have a second look at Locksmith
were he to line up. I would similarly be interested in his stable companion
Sindapour if he were to run here. His win at Plumpton amounts to nothing,
however we know from his form on the flat that he certainly has the potential to
figure here. Others worth mentioning are Royal Alphabet who should appreciate
the fast ground. The same applies to Grand Jete who was most impressive on this
surface at Wincanton in January or Lacdoudal who impressed when winning on his
British debut at Kempton ten days ago. Two that are probably overlooked at the
moment are Cardenas and Dad's Elect. Both initially make little appeal, however
both of them have shown good form on the continent in Germany and Italy and
Cardenas's win at Newbury in December (where he beat Fool On The Hill and Fleet
Street) looks to be fair form and through form lines with Game Of Emotions (who
Cardenas beat in a Group 1 in Italy last time out) there wouldn't be too much to
choose between these two. There is every chance that they will go off at bigger
prices than their actual form suggests they deserve and if you wanted to look
for a big-priced outsider in this race, you could do a lot worse than one of
these two.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Sadler's Wings
|¯2ª¯place?¯|
¬: Brave Inca
|¯3ª¯place?¯|
¬: Cardenas (GER) (e.W.)
|¯4ª¯place?¯|
¬: Locksmith
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Second¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Irish Independent Arkle steeple¨CH´. [gr. I] 2Miles~ £140,000 - For novice
5-Year-Olds & upwards. Weights: 5-Year-Olds 11st 3lb; 6-Year-Olds &
upwards 11st 7lb. Allowances: mares 7lb. Entries closed January 21, entries
revealed January 26 (42 entries), forfeit stage February 24, five-day
confirmation stage March 11, final declaration stage 10.15am March 15.
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªT¯¯|¯¯THE¯¯|¯¯POST¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Caracciola (GER), Le Duç (FR) and Well Chief (GER)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Fourty-two horses were entered for the Arkle. The race has always been a fiercely-contested event and Pendle (winner of the race in 1972), Canasta Lad (1974), Alverton (1978), Clayside (1981),
Bob´s Line (1984), Waterloo Boy (1989) Remittance Man (1991), Klairon Davis (1995), Flagship
Uberailles (1999), Moscow Flyer, [2002) and last year´s winner Azertyuïop confirm that the race invariably throws up a useful winner. I have managed to whittle the field down to the following possibles:
CARACCIOLA (GER) - trained by
Nicky Henderson
CENTRAL HOUSE - trained by
Dessie Hughes
COLCA CANYON - trained by
Jessica Harrington
DON FERNANDO - trained by
Martin Pipe
KICKING KING - trained by Tom
Taaffe
LADALKO (FR) - trained by
Paul Nicholls
LE DUÇ (FR) - trained by
Paul Nicholls
MISTER MCGOLDRICK - trained
by Sue Smith
OUR ARMAGEDDON (NZ) - trained
by Richard Guest
PUNTAL (FR) - trained by
Martin Pipe
THISTHATANDTOTHER - trained
by Paul Nicholls
TIDOUR (FR) - trained by Paul
Webber
WELL CHIEF (GER) - trained by
Martin Pipe
|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯|
--: The Arkle is a race which statistically tends to be won by the better
novices of a generation and isn't really a race to go too far away from those
considered to be the best in the market. If the market is to be believed, this
could develop into a straight fight between Central House, Kicking King, Well
Chief, Thisthatandtother and if he is back to his best, Caracciola.
Thisthatandtother will carry home support after impressive wins at Sandown and
most recently at Wincanton. For all his promise, he has always been a horse that
has my senses tingling. I was worried about him having the ability to win the
Supreme Novices Hurdle last year and so it proved although he was a totally
respectable fifth and I have the same vibe about him here. I suspect because of
his comprehensive defeat by Caracciola at Kempton over Christmas, I don't feel
he is totally straightforward and at current odds, do feel he is one to take
on.
There probably
isn't much to choose between Irish raiders Kicking King and Central House though
the prevailing conditions do favour Kicking King. This horse has always promised
to be decent and his run in last season's Supreme Novice Hurdle when second to
Back In Front always seemed to be the perfect platform to launch a career over
the larger obstacles. Although it's taken him a while to get the hang of
matters, his successes at Punchestown and Leopardstown last time do suggest that
he sets a very high standard and he will be hard to beat. I do think he is
beatable though and in Well Chief he meets a five-year-old who may lack the
experience of some of his opponents but more than matches that in potential. He
seems to be one of the few horses who ran in the Triumph Hurdle who has improved
this term for the experience. His victory in November over two miles at
Wincanton was in a very good time and although he disappointed next time out at
Newbury, there was a lot to like about his win at Taunton in February on ground
that was softer than ideal. It's a big ask, however with a handy weight-for-age
concession I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't good enough to lift this
prize.
Each-way
supporters will probably end up with a choice of Colca Canyon, Our Armageddon,
Puntal and Le Duç. Puntal is a difficult horse to catch right and frankly I
would prefer if 'A.P.' was on him which is unlikely at present. Le Duç may be
the one to consider. He has been disappointing in the main this season over
fences, however he did run well in the Tote Gold Trophy behind Rooster Booster
and his win at Kelso last time at least shows that his confidence over the
larger obstacles in improving. He still seems to be physically developing and I
wouldn't completely rule out a big effort from this horse especially as he
did a similar thing a year ago at the Aintree Festival.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Well Chief (GER)
|¯2ª¯place?¯| ¬: Kicking King
|¯3ª¯place?¯| ¬: Le Duç (FR) (e.W.)
|¯4ª¯place?¯| ¬: Thisthatandtother
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Third¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
CHAMPION HURDLE - Sponsored by Smurfits [gr. I] 2Miles~110yds £300,000 - for
four-year-olds and upwards. Weights: 4yo: 11st 3lb; 5-Year-Olds and up: 11st
10lb; fillies and mares allowance 7lb. Entries closed January 14 (48 entries),
entries released January 19, forfeit stage February 24, £15,000 supplementary
entry stage March 11, five-day confirmation stage March 11, final declaration
stage 10.15am, March 15
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªT¯¯|¯¯THE¯¯|¯¯POST¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Foreman (GER)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Can Rooster Booster follow up? He has the opportunity to join in the footsteps
of the great dual winners; Hatton´s Grace (1949-51), Sir Ken (1952-4), Persian
War (1968-70), Bula (1970-71), Sea Pigeon (1980-81), Dawn Run (1984), See You
Then (1985-87) and Istabraq (1999-2001). There are currently fourty-eight
entries for this season´s renewal of the Smurfit Champion Hurdle, which
includes horses trained in Ireland as well as two from France. It´s an unusual
mix but doesn´t have that much strength in depth and I wonder if the
supplementary entry system at the five day stage might be used for the first
time here;
 |
BACK
IN FRONT - trained by Edward
O´Grady in Ireland ¬: would be entertained if he was likely to run,
particularly if he was in the same sort of form when winning the opening race so impressively last year, however his preparation has been
shrouded by a certain amount of mystery and current reports suggest that an injury may keep him out of the lineup... |
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DAVENPORT
MILENIUM
- trained by Willie
Mullins in Ireland ¬: Willie Mullins´ charge has returned to the racecourse after missing most of last season through injury. He ran
encouragingly behind Solerina in the Ballymore Properties Hatton´s Grace Hurdle (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse on his
reappearance in November ´03, however has not been able to show his true worth in the Bula Hurdle at Cheltenham and most recently when coming home 2lnegths
behind Foreman in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) at Leopardstown
last time out. He is almost certainly better than the bare form but will need to improve to figure here.. though that is
entirely possible |
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DEMI
BEAU - trained by Charlie Mann ¬: Useful
handicapper on the flat who has taken well to hurdles and was impressive when
outpacing Perouse at Cheltenham at the end of December, however he won that day off of a
mark of 118, and even allowing for the rise allotted by the handicapper should really not be good enough in this company... then again a slowly run race has
the potential to throw up a strange result and his change of pace may prove useful. |
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FLAME
CREEK
- trained by
Noel Chance ¬: Has mixed chasing with hurdling this season with success, and given his third to Rigmarole in the Bula Hurdle (Grade 2) at Cheltenham in December,
[btn. 3¾lengths, with Rooster Booster behind him in fifth] and Golden Cross in the Bewleys Hotels December Festival Hurdle (Grade 1) ,
[btn. 2¼lengths], he has to be given a good chance here. He failed to build on that in when coming home 8lnegths
behind Foreman in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) and even though he may not have been suited by
the slow pace there, will need to be at his best to figure amongst the principles |
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FOREMAN
(GER) - trained by Thierry Doumen in France ¬: Seriously
underrated so far despite his excellent form in France he has been brought along quietly by Thierry Doumen winning a listed hurdle at
Enghien-Soisy on his return in November, before running a solid race in the Prix Leopold
d´Orsetti Haies (Grade 3) at the same venue three weeks later. He was only a length down but looked held when galling at the last, however the likely winner
Northerntown is one of the most improved hurdler/chasers in France at present and to lose
to him was no disgrace.. arguably its a compliment. He wouldn´t have been suited by the slow pace of his last two efforts in
the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, however he ran well in
both and it has to be encouraging that he was able to show more acceleration
that the likes of George´s Girl, Spirit Leader, Davenport Milenium and Flame Creek. He missed the Tote Gold Trophy specifically to go for this, so
clearly connections believe that he has a big run in him .. I can see where
they´re coming from. |
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FOTA
ISLAND - trained by Mouse Morris in Ireland ¬: Fota Island
hasn´t quite progressed the way I thought he would, [I expected him to be going over fences by now, which he looks made for], however he has shown useful form over hurdles this campaign, and posted a career-best performance,
behind Foreman in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle (Grade 1), bouncing back to form after an unexpected defeat at Thurles before Christmas.
It´s a decent effort, however it leaves him with a bit to find and I wonder whether
his principle role may be to support his owner´s more fancied running Rhinestone Cowboy. |
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GEOS
(FR)
- trained by Nicky Henderson ¬: I love this horse and even though he was our third choice, we cheered him home when he got up close home to beat Rooster Booster, in receipt of 17lbs in the Tote Gold Trophy Hurdle (Grade 3) at Newbury last time out. On the book he has an impossible task of reversing
the form with Rooster Booster at levels, however he has a good record at the
venue and it wouldn´t surprise us if he improved enough at the venue to warrant serious
each-way consideration. |
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GOLDEN
CROSS - trained by Michael Halford in Ireland :
Difficult to gauge this five-year-old son of Goldmark, and he was a fair juvenile last term, who caused a major
surprise when landing the Bewleys Hotels December Festival Hurdle (Grade 1) at
Leopardstown at Christmas, from Spirit Leader, with Flame Creek, Solerina, Rhinestone Cowboy, Hardy
Eustace and Back in Front, [who may all reoppose] all behind him. He didn´t
build on that effort when coming home 11lnegths behind Foreman in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle (Grade 1), however he
wouldn´t have been suited by the slow pace and may be better than that bare form suggest... Either way you have to think he will need to find a little more to win this championship race |
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HARDY
EUSTACE - trained by Dessie Hughes in Ireland : Last season´s Royal and SunAlliance Hurdle winner has shown that he still retains plenty of ability in Ireland as well as when only just being touched off by Crystal
d´Ainay at Cheltenham ´s last meeting. He finished behind Foreman in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle last time out and will need to be at his very best to figure here. He will however be suited by the likely strong pace of this race. |
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HASTY
PRINCE - trained by Jonjo
O´Neill : A useful handicapper who has run respectably when tried in graded company. However, through different lines of form he would need to improve to beat several of the leading performers here and there has to be some doubt whether he is up to the task. |
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IN
CONTRAST - trained by Philip Hobbs : A very useful handicapper at his best, however has failed to shine thus far this season and in any case, would probably need to improve on his best form to figure here. |
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INGLIS
DREVER - trained by Howard Johnson : Decent ex-flat handicapper who is developing into a very useful novice who certainly doesn´t look out of place in this lineup. Wouldn´t know whether he has the ability to win a Champion Hurdle, however the potential shown on the flat with Sir Mark Prescott and impressive runs over hurdles with present connections certainly don´t suggest that it is out of the question. |
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INTERSKY
FALCON - trained by Jonjo
O´Neill : I´m not sure what to expect from this individual. He can be devastatingly brilliant which he was when winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton at the end of last year, then look very ordinary as he has twice this season when being beaten in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and most recently by Rigmarole at Wincanton. Difficult to know what to predict with him, however his only realistic chance is surely the employment of exaggerated waiting tactics. |
|
ITALIAN
COUNSEL - trained by Luke Dace : At least 50lbs
´wrong´ at the weights here. I hope connections enjoy the afternoon out!!! |
|
LIMERICK
BOY (GER) - trained by Venetia Williams : Looked really promising last season when winning the big novice race at
Aintree ´s 2003 Grand National meeting and has taken a while to come to hand this term. However, there was plenty to like about the tenacity shown when landing the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton two runs ago and probably warrants more respect than is being currently given. |
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MONKERHOSTIN
(FR) - trained by Philip Hobbs : Useful handicapper who has been placed or run well in virtually all of the decent handicap hurdles this season. He was quite impressive when winning the
Rendlesham Hurdle at Kempton ten days ago. However, that was over 3 miles and he would seem to have better prospects in the Coral Cup than in this affair. |
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RHINESTONE
COWBOY -
trained by Jonjo O´Neill : Hasn´t quite fulfilled the promise
shown against novices this season and was very disappointing behind
Golden Cross at Leopardstown at Christmas. We do know though that he
is much better than he showed that day and given better luck in
running this time around, must have great chances of a finish in the
frame…at the very least. |
|
RIGMAROLE - trained by Paul Nicholls : Progressive handicapper who has progressed out of all recognition this season and owes us nothing having landed us a 25/1 coup in the Bula Hurdle on the new course at the end of last year. Very impressive when beating Intersky Falcon last time out at Wincanton and must surely come into calculations on that form alone. However, a word of caution: we strongly supported his chances in the Bula Hurdle because we felt he would be the best to cope in a falsely-run race. Although he has a high cruising speed, he has yet to satisfy us that he can produce the same level of form in a strongly-run championship race and bearing in mind his defeat in such an event at Wetherby earlier on in the campaign, we do feel that this must be considered if he is your particular fancy. |
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ROOSTER
BOOSTER -
trained by Philip Hobbs : I was amongst many who thought that the
champion had gone prior to his run in the Tote Gold Trophy and it is
only the harshest of punters who would not be impressed by his
gallant defeat at the hands of Geos (giving 17lbs). If you interpret
that form literally, he certainly has the beating of that rival as
well as Self Defence, Sporazene and Westender, however I can´t help
but think that it could be dangerous to take such a literal
interpretation…don´t get me wrong, he definitely is the horse to
beat going into the race, however he isn´t invincible and his fate
seems to be totally reliant on the tactics of his rivals…a recipe
for disaster?!! |
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SELF
DEFENSE - trained by Emma Lavelle : Decent second season hurdler who hasn´t really stamped his authority on the novice division in the way you would have though a horse who came fourth in the Champion Hurdle would have. Needs to improve on Tote Gold Trophy form with Rooster Booster to figure here and it won´t be a total surprise if he were to finish in a similar position this time round. |
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SPECULAR
(AUS)
- trained by Jonjo
O´Neill : Top-class hurdler in Australasia who has only been cited once in this country when showing definite signs of potential when coming home third behind Rooster Booster at Haydock in January. Hasn´t raced since which is a concern, however has been
´nibbled at´ for this race during the season and merits respect were he to line up. |
|
SPIRIT
LEADER - trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland : Useful handicapper who after wins in the Tote Gold Trophy and County Hurdle seemed at the end of last season to be capable of emulating the progression shown by Rooster Booster. She has been though a little disappointing this campaign, however this is probably because she hasn´t as yet had the strong pace she´ll probably need to be effective at this level. Although the formbook says she has it to do to beat the likes of Golden Cross, Foreman and Rigmarole, it would be very unwise to take the literal interpretation of this form as gospel. |
|
SPORAZENE - trained by Paul Nicholls : Has run well in each of his starts this season, arguably his best effort being when chasing home Intersky Falcon in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He was however well beaten in the Tote Gold Trophy and seems to have a bit to find to figure here although the going may suit him more than most. |
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WESTENDER
(FR) - trained by Martin Pipe : Talented rogue who is one of the more fascinating
´Jekyll and Hyde´ characters of the turf. The recalcitrant persona which was so reluctant in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle has no chance here. However, it´s nemesis which travelled so sweetly in the Tote Gold Trophy definitely merits respect, especially if you consider this horse´s good record at the meeting. |
|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: Can Rooster Booster win a second
Champion Hurdle? The stats don't suggest he has an easy task especially when you
consider that nine six-year-olds and six seven-year-olds have won this race in
the last 20 runnings and if you omitted 1981 winner Sea Pidgeon you would have
to go back a long way to find another 10-year-old winner of the race. That
doesn't mean however he couldn't win the race, and I can understand why punters
will be keen to latch onto him, especially after his courageous run under
top-weight in the Tote Gold Trophy, however it is worth remembering that this
horse is heavily reliant on strong early fractions and were he not to get that
as has been the case for most of this season, he would be vulnerable to several
of his rivals here. I've read comments from some well-known pundits who
pooh-pooh the notion of a tactical Champion Hurdle. Whilst understanding that, I
hardly see that it is in any of these horses favour either and with the possible
exception of Fota Island and Specular (if he runs), it is difficult to see where
the early pace is coming from, in fact I'm very surprised that connections have
not entered a horse with that specific purpose in mind. I don't think it'll be
funereal - if it were I am fairly certain Rooster Booster would have no option
but to go on. What is more likely is a sensible gallop with a long run from
home, possibly from the top of the hill. If that were to happen, the title is up
for grabs and like the Bula Hurdle, it would be a case of who had the decisive
kick. On that occasion we went for Rigmarole who enhanced his credentials when
beating Intersky Falcon at Wincanton three weeks ago. He has though had a very
hard campaign and whilst he definitely has the ability to go close, you have to
question whether going to the well fourteen times isn't at this level once of
twice too often. Personally I am more taken about the chances (admittedly at
each-way odds) of Limerick Boy, Geos, Rhinestone Cowboy and Foreman.
Each of these
have set a fair standard of form this season and have shown ability to act on
the track. They don't stand out as obviously as Rooster Booster or for that
matter Rigmarole however they have decent claims if putting their best foot
forward. Foreman is probably the most underestimated of these, I suspect because
we in this country rarely see him and therefore tend to judge him on those
efforts we have seen however he was a top-class hurdler in France and I take
heart from his run in the Christmas Hurdle in December where he finished only 6
1/2 lengths behind Intersky Falcon and Rooster Booster in a race which would not
have been run to suit him. He dug out a win in Ireland's version of this last
time out which again was tactically run but connections have been bringing him
along steadily for this run and it's worth remembering that they bypassed the
Tote Gold Trophy where he could have run off of 10st. 4lbs to prime him for this
effort. At the very worst he seems a sound each-way bet and if you share
my view of the race, I'd oppose 'the jolly' and have a small investment on him
instead. Were he to miss the race, Rhinestone Cowboy and then Limerick Boy would
be my preferred options (and similar stakes) ahead of the Champion
himself.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Foreman (GER),
[e.W.]
|¯2ª¯place?¯|
¬: Limerick Boy (GER),
|¯3ª¯place?¯|
¬: Rooster Booster,
|¯4ª¯place?¯|
¬: Geos (FR),
|
|
