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Analysis & Selections by
ðE`
RØøK
Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this ´second opinion´ provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent each-way claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners;
(1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at each-way
odds;
(E/W
ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race 's analysis.
Up
to the minute racing news....
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Cheltenham
´04
Cheltenham _ Old Course
Tuesday, 16 March ´04.
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Fourth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
William Hill National Hunt Handicap steeple¨CH´. [gr. III] 3Miles~110yds
£80,000 - For five-year-olds & upwards. Penalties: after February 28, 2004,
a winner of a Class C steeple chase 3lb; of a Class A or B steeple chase 6lb. No
penalty to be incurred by horses originally handicapped at or above 11st 10lb,
and no penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 10lb. Any horse rated
above 155 shall initially be treated as having that rating and the highest
weight allotted shall be 11st 10lb. Subsequently, the excess over 155 in any
rating shall be added to the weight allotted to that horse without limitation to
the highest weight to be carried. If no horse at 11st 10lb or above remains
engaged at the time fixed for confirmation or is declared at the overnight
stage, the weights shall be raised to 11st 10lb. Entries closed February 18 (73
entries), entries released February 23, weights revealed March 3. Five-day
confirmation stage March 11, final declaration stage 10.15am, March 14.
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªT¯¯|¯¯THE¯¯|¯¯POST¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Patricksnineteenth
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
The William Hill Handicap is the premier long-distance handicap over fences at
the meeting, which tends to show up a useful winner, and is also can be a
significant trial for the Grand National. Seventy-three horses have been entered
this year including entries from Ireland and France. Obviously at this stage of
proceedings, it´s impossible for us to highlight every single one of these
entries, however here are a few we believe are worth considering:
Marlborough
12yrs, - 11st~12lbs
Irish Hussar
8yrs, - 11st~11lbs
Swansea Bay
8yrs, - 11st~7lbs
Iris Royal
8yrs, - 11st~7lbs
Patricksnineteenth
7yrs, - 11st~7lbs
Stormez (FR)
7yrs, - 11st~1lb
Tyneandthyneagain
9yrs, - 11st~1lb
Risk Accessor
9yrs, - 11st~1lb
Lord Noelie
11yrs, - 11st~0lb
Takagi 9yrs,
- 11st~0lb
Horus 9yrs, -
10st~11lbs
Redemption 9yrs, - 10st~11lbs
Joss Naylor
9yrs, - 10st~9lbs
Haut Cercy
9yrs, - 10st~9lbs
Shardam 9yrs,
- 10st~9lbs
Red Striker
10yrs, - 10st~6lbs
Whereareyounow
7yrs, - 10st~6lbs
Kélami (FR)
6yrs, - 10st~5lbs
Iznogoud (FR)
8yrs, - 10st~5lbs
Fork
Lightning 8yrs, - 10st~5lbs
The Premier Cat 8yrs -
10st~4lbs
Joe Blake
9yrs, - 10st~4lbs
Mister Banjo
(FR) 8yrs, - 10st~4lbs
Jimmy Tennis
(FR) 7yrs, - 10st~1lb
Kings Mistral
11yrs, - 10st~0lb
Toto Toscato
(FR) 10yrs, - 9st~13lbs
Desailly
10yrs, - 9st~10lbs
World Wide
Web 8yrs, - 9st~9lbs
Magical
Bailiwick 8yrs, - 9st~8lbs
Jardin De
Baulieu (FR) 7yrs, - 9st~6lbs
Mondiál Jack
(FR) 5yrs, - 8st~12lbs
|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: With the weights literally only
having been published you can appreciate that this is not an easy race to call.
Nicky Henderson's trio Marlborough, Irish Hussar and Iris Royal who head the
weights have all shown decent levels of form this season and would have to be
respected. Similar comments apply to Martin Pipe's trio Stormez, Horus and
Magical Bailiwick. Haut Cercy was second in this last year and appears to have
been laid out for this again, this time around after finishing second over
course and distance to Kingscliff in December. He'll make all of these go,
however I read with interest comments from Francois Doumen 's yard about his
runner Kélami who is sidestepping engagements in some of the better handicaps
held in the spring in Auteuil for this particular race. On the face of it, he
has a bit to find on his recent winning form at Kempton in December, however
this six-year-old son of Lute Antique is open to plenty of improvement at this
trip. He is one of the few unexposed horses in this field, and with only 10st.
5lbs on his back, should go close if putting in a clear round. My best each was
possibles are limited to three here. The safe option is the talented but
frustrating Risk Assessor who would figure more prominently if he jumped more
fluently. At slightly longer odds, I would nominate Fork Lightning (in fair form
this season) who warrants respect if judged on his second to Lord Sam at Kempton
in January. The long shot is Martin Pipe's fourth candidate Mondiál Jack who is
a long way out of the handicap but definitely gives the impression that he might
be open to further improvement at this trip. If the weights were to rise a
stone, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ran well.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Kélami (FR)
|¯2ª¯place?¯|
¬: Fork Lightning (e.W.)
|¯3ª¯place?¯|
¬: Haut Cercy (FR)
|¯4ª¯place?¯|
¬: Marlborough
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Fifth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap steeple¨CH´. [Amateur Riders] 3Miles~110yds
£50,000 - For five-year-olds & upwards rated 0-140. Amateur riders.
Penalties: after February 28, 2003, a winner of a Class A to C steeple chase
4lb. No penalties to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb.Entries closed
February 18 (114 entries), entries released February 23, weights revealed March
3. Five-day confirmation stage March 11, final declaration stage 10.15am, March
15.
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªT¯¯|¯¯THE¯¯|¯¯POST¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Jasmin Guichois (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
One hundred and fourteen horses have been entered for this amateur riders´
handicap steeple¨CH´., which includes entries from Ireland and France. This is
over the same course and distance as the William Hill Handicap steeple¨CH´.,
however seems to require horses to stay a little further, probably because the
pilots tend to go too quickly. I´ll be concentrating on the following horses:
Tyneandthyneagain
9yrs, - 12st~0lbs
Horus 9yrs, -
12st~0lbs
Royal Auclair
(FR) 7yrs, - 11st~12lbs
Chicúelo
(FR) 8yrs, - 11st~0lbs
Red Striker
10yrs, - 11st~9lbs
Innox (FR)
8yrs, - 11st~8lbs
Joly Bey (FR)
7yrs, - 11st~8lbs
You´re Agoodun 12yrs, - 11st~7lbs
Hermes III
(FR) 9yrs, - 11st~7lbs
The
Bushkeeper 10yrs, - 11st~7lbs
Clan Royal
(FR) 9yrs, - 11st~5lbs
Gunther
McBride 9yrs, - 11st~5lbs
Kings Mistral
11yrs, - 11st~3lbs
Ross Moff
11yrs, - 11st~3lbs
Toto Toscato
10yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Royal Predica
(FR) 10yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Master Tern
(USA) 9yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Satco Express
8yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Celestial
Gold 6yrs, - 11st~1lb
Tucacãs (FR)
7yrs, - 11st~1lb
Desailly
10yrs, - 10st~13lbs
Yeoman´s
Point 8yrs, - 10st~13lbs
Mr. Cospector
7yrs, - 10st~13lbs
World Wide
Web 8yrs, - 10st~12lbs
Magical
Bailiwick 8yrs, - 10st~11lbs
Moor Lane
12yrs, - 10st~11lbs
Simply
Supreme 7yrs, - 10st~9lbs
Jardin De
Beaulieu (FR) 7yrs, - 10st~9lbs
Only Once
9yrs, - 10st~9lbs
Coq Hardi
Diamond 10yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Prominent
Profile 11yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Ibis
Rochelaïs (FR) 7yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Jasmin
d´Oudairies (FR) 7yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Ballyconnell
8yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Koqueliçot
(FR) 6yrs, - 10st~6lbs
Atlastaboy
8yrs, - 10st~6lbs
Bathwick
Annie 8yrs, - 10st~5lbs
Star Clipper
7yrs, - 10st~5lbs
Russian
Gigolo 7yrs, - 10st~5lbs
Mercato (FR)
8yrs, - 10st~4lbs
Jasmin
Guichois (FR) 7yrs, - 10st~3lbs
Moreluck
8yrs, - 10st~2lbs
Mondiál Jack
(FR) 5yrs, - 10st~1lb
Wild Knight
7yrs, - 9st~12lbs
Curtins Hill
10yrs, - 9st~12lbs
Lord Of The
River 12yrs, - 9st~12lbs
Never
Compromise 9yrs, - 9st~11lbs
Oneway 7yrs,
- 9st~9lbs
|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯|
--: An almost identical ponderable for punters again, with plenty of
possibilities at this stage. The Bushkeeper who won this race in 2002 hasn't run
since but would have to be respected were he allowed to run. He, Sandown
specialist King's Minstrel, Mandarin Chase winner Desailly, Becher Chase winner
Clan Royal and Ibis Rochelaïs (who was second in this last year) are likely to
head the market. I wouldn't want to put off any punters interested in backing
them however I do like the claims of Satco Express (who has useful form in
novice company in Ireland this season), Jasmin Guichois (impressive in his last
two wins including a victory over the new course in January) and
Tucacãs (a mare who runs well fresh and is best judged by her win at Wincanton
in January). In my view each of these three have been weighted to mix it
with the likely market leaders and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if
one of these didn't prevail. Marginal preference is for Jasmin Guichois over
Satco Express.
Each-way
supporters will have plenty of choice again and apart from those already
mentioned, Horus (will find things difficult off of 12st.), Innox (has he really
returned to form?), Yeoman Point (well handicapped on his hurdles form) and
Mondiál Jack ( lets hope that connections can find a jockey to 10st. 1lb - the
weights rising by an extra 6lbs would be handy) would all enter calculations.
Tucacãs is preferred over stablemate Mondiál Jack though I would have no
hesitation in reversing this if Mondiál Jack was declared with a decent amateur
on board.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Jasmin Guichois
(FR)
|¯2ª¯place?¯|
¬: Tucacãs (FR)
|¯3ª¯place?¯|
¬: Clan Royal (FR)
|¯4ª¯place?¯|
¬: Mondiál Jack (FR) (e.W.)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Sixth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Pertemps Final - [A Handicap Hurdle] - [Listed] 3Miles~1f 110yds - £60,000
total prize fund, five-year-olds and upwards which have either started, as
defined in the Orders and Rules of racing, in a Pertemps Hurdle Race (Qualifier)
since the start of the current season or any horses which were eliminated from a
Qualifier, having declared to run at the overnight stage. (In the event of the
abandonment of a qualifier, any horse which had been declared to run in that
race at the overnight declaration stage, or any horse entered to run if the time
of abandonment was prior to the overnight declaration stage, will be qualified
to enter the Final). Penalties: after February 28, a winner of a hurdle race
4lb. No penalty to increase a horse ´s weight above 11st 12lb. Entries closed
Wednesday, February 18 (48 Entries), entries released February 23, weights
revealed March 3. Five-day confirmation stage March 11, final declaration stage
10.15am, March 15
|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯ªT¯¯|¯¯THE¯¯|¯¯POST¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|¯¯¯¯¯¯|
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --:
Alexanderthegreat, Ar Muin Na Muice and Starzaan
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:
Fourty-eight horses have been entered for the final of the Pertemps hurdle race
qualifiers. The race is usually well contested and is one of the few races at
this trip which is strongly run from flagfall...Class and/or stamina usually
out. The horses we believe you should be concentrating on are as follows:
Starzaan 5yrs, -
11st~12lbs
Tardar (NZ)
8yrs, - 11st~8lbs
Mistanoora
5yrs, - 11st~4lbs
The Bajan
Bandit 9yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Alexanderthegreat
6yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Ar Muin Na
Muice 8yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Inching
Closer 7yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Stormez (FR)
7yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Rostropovich
7yrs, - 11st~2lbs
Campaign
Trail 6yrs, - 10st~11lbs
Prince Of
Tara 7yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Mutineer
5yrs, - 10st~7lbs
Hirvine (FR)
6yrs, - 10st~5lbs
Carlovent
(FR) 9yrs, - 10st~5lbs
His Nibs
7yrs, - 10st~4lbs
Takagi 9yrs,
- 10st~3lbs
Derivative
6yrs, - 10st~3lbs
Keepatem
8yrs, - 10st~3lbs
G V A Ireland 6yrs, - 10st~1lb
Secret Native 9yrs, - 10st~0lb
Hidden Bounty
8yrs, - 9st~12lbs
Columbus
7yrs, - 9st~9lbs
Billy Bonnie
7yrs, - 9st~9lbs
Creon 9yrs, -
9st~8lbs
Imperial De
Thaïx (FR) 8yrs, - 9st~7lbs
Vodka Bleu
(FR) 5yrs, - 9st~3lbs
No Small
Plans 7yrs, - 9st~2lbs
|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: I am not convinced that this is a
particularly decent renewal of the Pertemps Final and this race doesn't appear
to have taken shape. Jonjo O'Neill appears on paper to have a strong hand as his
runners Campaign Trail and Tardar both come into this race on the back of decent
efforts in qualifiers: Tardar at Haydock, (where he beat Iris's Gift and
Stormez) and Campaign Trail (who followed up wins at Wetherby and Bangor with a
fair second to Mistanoora at Warwick in January) and I wouldn't be surprised if
both of these were to run well here. However the Irish appear to have an
interesting hand this time around and my eyes are immediately drawn to Keepatem,
Takagi and G V A Island, all of whom are lurking around the 10st. mark. The one
that appeals the most is Keepatem who has only run once this season, however it
was a hugely encouraging effort, as he stayed on strongly to finish third beaten
only half a length by Royal All Star and G V A Island. That should have him spot
on for this and I'd be hopeful of him giving a good account of himself.
There will be
possibles amongst those mentioned above for each-way punters, however a word for
our One To Jump feature horses Alexanderthegreat and Hidden Bounty who both
showed steady improvement this season and shouldn't be totally inconvenienced by
a faster surface. You could do a lot worse than backing one of these for a
place.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Keepatem
|¯2ª¯place?¯|
¬: Stormez (FR)
|¯3ª¯place?¯|
¬: G V A Island
|¯4ª¯place?¯|
¬: Alexanderthegreat (e.W.)
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