Cheltenham ´04
(day two - part one)

Analysis & Selections by

ðE` RØøK

Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this ´second opinion´ provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent each-way claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.

SELECTIONS - For each race, we have given you who, in our view, are the likeliest winners; (1er _ THE WINNER?), as well as any runners who could run well at each-way odds; (E/W ALTERNATIVE) . Any runner from our features are shown before each race 's analysis.

Up to the minute racing news.... 

Sports: horse racing news

Cheltenham ´04 Cheltenham _ Old Course Wednesday, 17 March ´04.

¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Seventh¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--: Royal & SunAlliance Novices` Hurdle [gr. I] 2Miles~5f £100,000 - For Novice Four-Year-Olds and upwards. Weights: four-year-olds 10st. 13lb; five-year-olds and upwards 11st 7lb. Allowances: fillies & mares 7lb. Entries closed Wednesday, January 28, 2003. Entries revealed Monday, February 2, 2004 (113 entries). Forfeit stage Tuesday, February 24, 2004. Five-day confirmation stage Friday, March 12, 2004. Final declaration stage 10.15am, Tuesday, March 16, 2004.
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --: Dictum (GER), Grey Report, Inexorable, Kadount (FR), Mon Villez (FR), Sixo, Tighten Your Belt and Pack Jack (FR) 
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:  The Royal and SunAlliance Novice Hurdle opens the second day of the meeting and is always a hugely competitive affair. This year one hundred and thirteen horses were entered including runners from Ireland, Germany and France, each of them looking to add to the list of previous winners which include Brown Lad (1974), Davey Lad (1975), Venture To Cognac (1979), Drumlargan (1980), Sabin Du Loi (1983), Ten Plus (1986), Danolì (1994), Istabraq (1997), French Holly (1998), Barton (1999), Monsignor (2000), Galileo (2002) and last year´s winner Hardy Eustace. Having cast my eye over the original entry, these are the horses that made most appeal:

BIG MOMENT - trained by Amanda Perrett

BRAVE INCA - trained by Colin Murphy

CARDENAS (GER) - Mario Hofer

CLOUNTIES HILL - trained by Willie Mullins

COLLIER COUNTY - trained by Edward O´Grady

CORNISH REBEL - trained by Paul Nicholls

DAD´S ELECT (GER)- trained by Charlie Mann

DICTUM (GER) - trained by Susan Nock

ERIC´S CHARM (FR)- trained by Oliver Sherwood

EURO LEADER - trained by Willie Mullins

FIRST DIPLOMA - trained by Noel Meade

FLYING WANDA - trained by Paul Nicholls

FONTANESÌ - trained by Martin Pipe

FUNDAMENTALIST - trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

GREY REPORT - trained by Philip Hobbs

INEXORABLE - trained by David Wachman

INGLIS DREVER - trained by Howard Johnson

IT´S SHOWTIME - trained by Edward O´Grady

KADOUNT (FR) - trained by Alan King

KILDARE - trained by Dessie Hughes

KING SOLOMON (FR) - trained by Venetia Williams

MARK THE MAN - trained by Noel Meade

MEGGIE´S GAMBLE - trained by Venetia Williams

MON VILLEZ (FR) - trained by Nicky Henderson

PAK JACK (FR) - trained by Philip Hobbs

PERLE DE PUCE (FR) - trained by Nicky Henderson

ROYAL ROSA (FR) - trained by Howard Johnson

SADLER´S WINGS - trained by Willie Mullins

SINDAPOUR - trained by Martin Pipe

SPECIAL RATE - trained by Alan King

TIGHTEN YOUR BELT - trained by Venetia Williams

WAR OF ATTRITION - trained by Mouse Morris

WATSON LAKE - trained by Noel Meade

|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: The second day of the festival opens with the seventh race of the meeting, usually a good event for favourite-backers. Ireland is strongly represented as she was in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and the horses we highlighted in that event, namely Sadler's Wings, Brave Inca and Maria Rollins would all merit consideration again here. To them, we would add Best Mate's full brother Cornish Rebel  (not seen out since winning the Challow Hurdle at Newbury in December), Sindapour (who should appreciate the step up in distance here after winning first time out at Plumpton three weeks ago), Royal Rosa and English Drever (two decent novices trained by Howard Johnson), Watson Lake (beaten by Brave Inca last time out at Leopardstown but is much better than that as his two wins previous to that testify),  Very Optimistic (yet to come off the bridle in three career starts, most recently at Haydock in December), Tighten Your Belt (a half-brother to Native Upmanship who could do no more than win both starts so far this season), and Fundamentalist (multi-winning pointer who is beginning to translate that promise under rules: an easy win at Kempton and a narrow defeat by Royal Rosa reads well in the context of this race). 

I do feel the winner is likely to come from these, however the makeup of the field is still unclear. At the time of writing, there is a good chance that English Drever may go for the Champion Hurdle, Sadler's Wings may go for the Supreme Novices Hurdle as might Brave Inca and there is also the possibility that fast ground could eliminate a few of these, most notably Cornish Rebel. Therefore, we will look elsewhere for a selection and hope that Sindapour and Fundamentalist line up. We've already highlighted in this summary our favourable impression of our horse to follow, Fundamentalist. If you've read some of our features during the flat season, you will also note how keen we are on Sindapour, a half-brother to the great Sinndar. His form at Plumpton amounts to very little, however he is virtually guaranteed to stay this trip. Anybody who remembers how he was aggressively ridden in the Ascot Handicap over this trip at the Royal Meeting will appreciate how difficult he might be to beat if he is given that tactical advantage here. If he were to run here instead of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, we would be particularly keen on him....enough to give him the selection. If there is any each-way value in the race, it may be again with the two foreign raiders we selected in Race 1, Dad's Elect and Cardenas, however I would add to them Best Mate's half-brother Inexorable ( a winner three times this season who may act on the faster surface) or possibly Dictum who was so impressive at Ascot in January (though he has a big question mark about him at this trip).
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Sindapour
|¯2ª¯place?¯| ¬: Fundamentalist
|¯3ª¯place?¯| ¬: Inglis Drever
|¯4ª¯place?¯| ¬:  Very Optimistic

¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Eighth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--: Royal & SunAlliance steeple¨CH´. [gr. I] 3Miles~110yds £140,000 - for five-year-olds and upwards. Weights: 5-y-o: 10st. 8lb, 6-y-o and up: 11st 4lb: mares allowance 7lb. Entries closed January 21, 2004 (64 entries), entries released, Monday, January 26, forfeit stage February 24. Five-day confirmation stage Friday, March 12, overnight declaration stage Tuesday, March 16. 
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --: Patricksnineteenth, Jim (FR) and Xenophon (FR) 
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:   The 2004 renewal of the Royal and SunAlliance Chase has attracted sixty-four entries, including thirteen from Ireland and a couple from France. This looks to be a particularly strong renewal, however the fact that since 1960, only five horses, Arkle (1963), Ten Up (1974), Master Smudge (1979), Garrison Savannah (1990) and Looks Like Trouble (1999) have won this race before going on to win the Tote Gold Cup, speaks volumes about the severity of this race and I do wonder about the wisdom of trainers aiming their best novices at this race when the softly-softly approach is apparently a far more proven way of producing a horse likely to go right to the top. Therealbandit ´s likely defection has caused plenty of controversy, however the history books suggest this may a choice, [if he isn´t good enough surely he´ll be pulled up]. This doesn´t look as strong on paper as last year´s renewal, however there are a few in this line-up with the potential to go right to the top. The most interesting runners are in my view;

BALLYCASSIDY - trained by Peter Bowen

CALLING BRAVE - trained by Nicky Henderson

D´ARGENT - trained by Alan King

HISTORIC - trained by Tom George

JIM (FR) - trained by Jim Dreaper

LIBERTHINE (FR) - trained by Nicky Henderson

LORD SAM - trained by Victor Dartnall

MISTER BANJO (FR) - trained by Paul Nicholls

OUR VIC - trained by Martin Pipe

PATRICKSNINETEENTH - trained by Paul Webber

PIZARRO - trained by Edward O´Grady

PUNTAL (FR) - trained by Martin Pipe

ROSSLEA - trained by Henrietta Knight

ROYAL EMPEROR - trained by Sue Smith 

SIMPLY SUPREME - trained by Sue Smith

SUPREME PRINCE - trained by Phillip Hobbs

THEREALBANDIT - trained by Martin Pipe

TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN - trained by Richard Guest

WHEREAREYOUNOW - trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies

WINDING RIVER - trained by Charles Egerton

XENOPHON - trained by Tony Martin

|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: Seemingly, like most races at the Festival the final makeup of this field is still unclear. There is still every possibility that Martin Pipe could be represented by either Our Vic or Therealbandit. Both of these in my view are potentially top-class and whichever one he deemed to choose would be very hard to beat here, granted a clear round. Further confusion has been added to this picture by both of these two being entered for the Cathcart Chase and the news that Our Vic could be supplemented for the Gold Cup. Leaving them aside for a second, assuming clean rounds were put in, I wouldn't want to look past Calling Brave (unbeaten in three runs this season), D´Argent (useful novice who is much better  than he showed last time out at Wincanton), Lord Sam (progressive Novice Chaser who has done all that has been asked of him this season), Patricksnineteenth (he's taken the Florida Pearl route of bypassing hurdles for a novice chase campaign. He looked good when winning at a Grade 1 event at Sandown last time out), Pizarro (former Cheltenham bumper winner is getting the hang of the larger obstacles: looks good when he puts it all together though he does miss the occasional one out), Royal Emperor (battle hardened handicap hurdler come novice chaser who is demonstrating these qualities to great effect over larger obstacles) and Xenophon (hasn't taken quite as well to fences as many as hoped, however does suggest he still retains most of his ability and could be interesting if he put in a clear round). 

If the race developed into a war of attrition then by far the safest option of these would be Royal Emperor who ground his rivals into submission at Wetherby at the beginning of February. For all of that, I don't believe this form equates to what the real bandit has posted this season over hurdles, never mind his runs over fences and you would have to go a long way to see a novice chaser win in the consummate ease as Our Vic did in the Reynoldstown Chase last time out. Even it if ended up not being pretty, I wouldn't want to oppose either of these two were they to run, therefore I'll have to select both of them and see which turns up on the day. If there were to be a major shock in the race, the only horse with the potential to produce it is Liberthine ( a very useful juvenile hurdler when trained by Guillaume Macaire in France) who can boast a victory over Prix Maurice De Gillois (Grade 1) winner Ladykish and has good form in defeat against the likes of Bulougun, Loumie and Katoune. She hasn't been easy to train, however it is worth noting that were she to line up here, should would only have to carry 10st. 1lb and she is able to claim all of the five-year-old allowances. It's a big ask after such a long absence, however she did once possess the potential to run well. I for one will be fascinated to see how she develops even if she misses this engagement. 
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Our Vic / Therealbandit
|¯2ª¯place?¯| ¬: Royal Emperor
|¯3ª¯place?¯| ¬: Lord Sam
|¯4ª¯place?¯| ¬: Patricksnineteenth 

¦¨¨¨¨¨¨Ninth¨Race¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--: QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION steeple¨CH´. [gr. I] 2Miles~ £250,000 - For 5-Year-Olds & upwards. Weights: 5-Year-Olds 11st 6lb; 6-Year-Olds & upwards 11st 10lb. Allowances: mares 7lb. Entries closed January 7, entries released January 12 (25 entries), forfeit stage February 24, £12,500 supplementary stage March 12, five-day confirmation stage March 12, overnight declaration stage, 10.15am March 16.
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¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨ONE¨Tº¨JUMP´º4¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦ ¬ are there any horses from ONE Tº JUMP ´º4 - our feature which at the beginning of each season, sets out to provide a list of horses to follow during the current national hunt season? ¦ --: Isio (FR)
¦¨¨¨¨¨¨¨"ðE´RØøK"¨¨¨¨¨¨¨¦--:   Can Moscow Flyer win his second Queen Mother Champion Chase, the main race on Day two of the meeting. The race has attracted an initial entry of twenty-five, all of whom will be looking to join the illustrious list of previous winners including Fortria (1960-61), Dunkirk (1965), Flying Bolt (1966), Drinny´s Double (1967-68), Crisp (1971), Royal Relief (1972 & 1974), Sky Mass (1976-7), Hilly Way (1978-79), Badsworth Boy (1983-85), Pearlyman (1987-88), Viking Flagship (1994-95), One Man (1998), Édredon Bleu (1999), and Flagship Uberailles (2000-01). Here are our thoughts on those horses that stood their ground at the first forfeit stage:

	AZERTYUÏOP (FR) - trained by Paul Nicholls ¬: Last season´s Arkle Chase winner has done very little wrong this season and his only blemishes have been a first fence fall in the Holden Gold Cup at Exeter followed by a gallant but ultimately sound beating by Moscow Flyer in the Tingle Creak Chase at Sandown Park in December. Connections have stated that he wasn´t fully ´wound-up´ for that race which suggests that he may be open to further progression... that´ll need to be the case for him to lower the colours of a top-class champion.
	CENKOS (FR) - trained by Paul Nicholls ¬: On his day, Cenkos is a top-class two mile chaser well capable of finishing in the frame here. He has however been soundly beaten by Moscow Flyer and Azertyuïop this season and you´re going to have to hope this ´spring horse´ comes back to his best for him to take top spot here.
	EI EI - trained by Michael Chapman ¬: There will be plenty of sentimental National Hunt enthusiasts and who would love this front-running handicapper to run well here. However, realistically he is completely out of his depth although I for one will hope he isn´t totally humiliated.
	ESKLEYBROOK - trained by Victor Gethin ¬: Although Victor Gethin´ s gelding has a victory over Tiutchev to his name from last season, his overall form isn´t good enough and he is readily passed over here.
	FLAGSHIP UBERAILLES - trained by Philip Hobbs ¬: Former winner of this race seems to be on the decline if his recent efforts against Kadarann are an accurate gauge of his ability. He does however run well fresh and could merit each-way support in a race dominated by the two main principals.
	GOT ONE TOO (FR) - trained by Nicky Henderson ¬: Useful handicapper who has always impressed me most when given attacking rides from flagfall rather than come-from-behind tactics. Has plenty to do with Azertyuïop on Victor Chandler Chase form and realistically a minor placing is the best connections can hope for, granted clear rounds.
	ISIO (FR) - trained by Nicky Henderson ¬: Useful second season chaser who got the better of Azertyuïop in one of the best finishes of the season in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot in January. He received ___lbs from Azertyuïop which gives him plenty to find on the book. However, he is more progressive than most of these and I wouldn´t be at all surprise if he ran respectably if given the opportunity.
	KADARANN - trained by Paul Nicholls ¬: Not far behind the best on a going day, as demonstrated by his win over Flagship Uberailles in the Castleford Chase last December. However, he has been readily beaten by Azertyuïop and Moscow Flyer in championship races and it´s difficult to envisage him reversing that form here.
	MOSCOW FLYER - trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland ¬: Will he become a dual winner of this championship race? Well, he´s done nothing wrong since winning a year ago and judging by each of his successes this season most notably the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown, (where he beat Azertyuïop by 4 lengths) it is going to take a really good effort to lower his colours here. A word of caution though: he tends to make mistakes when the pressure is off therefore if I supported him I would hope that this race does not cut up significantly.
	NATIVE SCOUT - trained by Donal Hassett in Ireland ¬: Another useful handicapper who hasn´t as yet demonstrated that he possesses the ability to win a championship race of this level.
	NATIVE UPMANSHIP - trained by Arthur Moore in Ireland ¬: Placed in the last two runnings of this race, and might have proved to be very attractive to each-way punters this time around. However, he disappointed badly when finished 3rd last time out at Navan and is very unlikely to run here - it isn´t an ideal preparation, even if connections had a change of heart.
	SEEBALD (GER) - trained by Martin Pipe ¬: Must be a really frustrating horse because he demonstrated last season when falling at the second last (when looking likely to make the frame) that he possesses the ability to run well here granted a clear round. He has though jumped appallingly in every race bar the King George, (where ironically he was travelling well when being brought down at the twelfth) and there is every possibility that any chance he may have may well be blundered away. That said, if eight of these lined up including him, he might represent a sporting each-way bet at a big price.
	TIUTCHEV - trained by Martin Pipe ¬: Reportedly he is missing this event to run at Aintree and all the evidence this season strongly indicates that two miles nowadays is too short a trip for him.
	VENN OTTERY - trained by Paul Nicholls ¬: It would be one of the most romantic stories of racing if this former non-finisher were even able to finish in the frame, never mind winning. However, those punters who backed him at 1000/1 could have an interesting five minutes ahead of them, judging by his recent transformation. I can´t believe that this is the same horse that we watched during the summer months tanking out the back, almost out of control who was then produced to challenge three out but always faded out of contention due to lack of peak fitness. Paul Nichols has really toned him up and he looks like a real racehorse now and whilst two easy wins at Leicester and Ludlow are a long way from what is required, he definitely has improved significantly for moving stables....it would be great for National Hunt racing were he to run here.

|¯¯¯¯¯¯¯SUMMARY¯¯¯¯¯¯¯| --: You have to respect everything that Azertyuïop has done this season and there is no doubt that there will be plenty of punters prepared to take on Moscow Flyer with Azertyuïop, particularly after his second in the Victor Chandler Chase. However, to me Moscow Flyer is the consummate champion and the fact that his most recent record reads ' 18 runs, 14 wins, 4 failures to complete' suggests that he is an above average champion. If he jumps round, I can't see him being beaten here. The each-way position is a little bit more hazy as it is not clear how many horses will line up on the day, however I would be very keen on Isio despite meeting Azertyuïop on level terms here and Seebald 's recent run behind Isio at Newbury was one of the best rounds of jumping he has posted in a long while. I'm not sure this is an each-way race to be frank, but if you wanted to have a delve, it should be in this direction.
|¯¯1ST¯PLACED?¯¯| ¬: Moscow Flyer
|¯2ª¯place?¯| ¬: Azertyuïop (FR)
|¯3ª¯place?¯| ¬: Seebald (GER) (e.W.)
|¯4ª¯place?¯| ¬:  Native Upmanship

This page was last updated on Saturday March 13, 2004 at 11:37:31 PM

THE FEATURE MEETING

POSTING TIME
Selections for Monday - Friday should be available after 9:30pm the previous evening, however on Saturday and Sunday due to other commitments won´t be posted until after 8:30am those respective mornings unless otherwise stated. Hopefully this helps

DEDICATION

GEORGE E. ROBERTSON
1936 - 2003

FURLONG TO GO would like to convey our condolences to the rØøk, whose father; George Edward Robertson passed away on  16th April 2003. 

Mr. Robertson nurtured the rØøk´s enthusiasm for this sport, and it was this inspiration, which is probably behind the creation of this website. As a permanent tribute to his memory, all the meetings covered under the "feature Meeting" banner will be dedicated to him...

"Big George"