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The Furlong Pole, comments daily on British racing at his Web site, www.furlongtogo.co.uk, providing analysis, race reviews and selections for flat, jump and point-to-point racing.
The Coral Eclipse by The Furlong Pole
8 JUL 2000
Although the different generations race each other throughout a large proportion on the season in handicaps, the end of June/beginning of July signifies the first real test of the age groups on level terms, (allowing for weight for age.)
The Coral Eclipse is the second significant test of the generations over ten furlongs after the Princess of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. The race carries more significance mainly because the better middle distance three-year-olds have longer to prepare for it, should they run in the Derby.. In fact historically the Derby form is a useful source for finding winners amongst the three-year-olds in this event.
Eight horses have stood their ground at the latest entry stage, and the entry looks strong. Unlike last week's event at the Curragh though, when Jim Oxx, the trainer of Sinndar successfully plotted, with his three pacemakers, the downfall of Holding Court, his likeliest challenger, this week's event do appear at first sight, to be a story waiting to unravel itself.
4:05 CORAL-ECLIPSE STAKES SHOWCASE RACE (CLASS A) (GROUP 1)
This race will be run over 1m2f, the ground is currently good to Firm, but rain is forecasted which may have a bearing on the result. Weights; 4-year-olds colts will carry 9st 7lbs, 3 year-olds will carry 8st 10lbs. Fillies and mares get a 3lb allowance.
The entries are:
Border Arrow 5 year-old Trained by I A Balding ~ Threatened to be really useful at three, but have never really fulfilled that promise. Greatly flattered by his proximity to Shiva at in the Brigadier Stakes at Sandown the time before last and then finished behind Fantastic Light in the Coronation Cup; he will struggle to win this
Fantastic Light 4 year-old Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor ~ Finished third in the race last year. He joined Godolphin after an impressive win at Nad El Sheba in March, and then probably wasn't given one of Chris McCarron's better rides in the Coronation Cup, saying that though he did of course still finish in front of Border Arrow. He does perform well around this track
Gold Academy 4 year-old Trained by R Hannon ~ Not sure whether we haven't seen the best of this horse. He was decent at or around this trip when the ground was on the firmer side. Thus far he has finished sixth in both start most recently when beaten 5 lengths by Fruits of Love over a mile and a half. The conditions are going against him I fear
Kalanisi 4 year-old Trained by Sir Michael Stoute ~ One of the more interesting participants in the race, having only been beaten once in his career when a slow early pace contrived his downfall when just tailed off by Swallow Flight at Windsor. This horse is effective at a mile, as he subsequently proved in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot but having watched him you get the impression that this is his optimum trip, and therefore will improve for the step up in distance. Should go well here
Shiva (JPN) 5 year-old Trained by H R A Cecil ~ Without doubt one of the best fillies/mares in training at this distance at present. She was devastating in her dismissal of her opponents in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown last time out, but playing devil's advocate for a moment, it might have been the case that she is best suited to the conditions prevalent that evening, and therefore it would be unlikely that she would not perform to that level on a quicker surface. Nevertheless she has a very good chance today
Giant's Causeway 3 year-old Trained by A P O'Brien ~ I've suggested all season that this horse may improve by being stepped up to this distance, I shall soon find out how sensible that suggestion was! Very hard to fault on form. Winner of a hotly contested Group 1 event at Royal Ascot last time out, having finished in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas. Must go well if he stays
Sakhee 3 year-old Trained by J L Dunlop ~ Gets the opportunity to uphold the Derby form here. You couldn't really fault that effort, as he looked the likeliest winner turning for home before being worn down by the dual Derby winner. This dual Derby winner arguably has the best credentials, but will he take the spoils?
Sun Charm 3 year-old Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor ~ The likely "pace in the race." Has little chance of winning this, in fact on all known form he should come last.
Coral bet: 2-1 Shiva, 9-4 Sakhee, 9-1 Fantastic Light, Kalanisi, 7-1 Giant's Causeway, 20-1 Border Arrow, 25-1 Gold Academy, 150-1 Sun Charm.
A few things struck me when composing this piece.
- Firstly there is a good chance that the ground may well strong bearing on the outcome. At present it shouldn't inconvenience any of these, but any persistent rainfall between now and race time will suit Shiva right down to the
ground
I then thought about the pace of the race.
- You can argue that none of the horses entered want a searching trip, so they will at the very least go a true gallop. I do think though that some of the trainers have missed the opportunity to test the stamina of Kalanisi and Giant's
Causeway
- Worse for them, I'm not convinced that Sun Charm would have been my choice of pacesetter, as I'm not convinced that he is good enough to fill that role effectively. I can see him either tearing off for 5 furlongs, totally ignored by the field, or simply not being good enough to force the pace and therefore contriving to turn this race into a sprint; there are several this wouldn't suit.
- If you backed Shiva, Sakhee, and Fantastic Light, you must really hope that Sun Charm does his "job" because if he doesn't, you would have thought that Giants Causeway and Kalanisi's pace at a shorter trip could very well become decisive.
Conclusion
Go with Kalanisi's potential improvement at the trip. The potential lack of pace is an additional bonus
The Furlong Pole Suggests:
Winner: Kalanisi Eachway
Alt: Giant's Causeway -- I can't see him not being placed
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