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"Football Wagers"
by
"I~SÞY"
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Whether
it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we
will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied
horses participating each day and their
characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides
you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a
particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we
feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims.
whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you.
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND ¯¯ [WEEK 3]
by iSpy
Friday, 20 August 2004
FOOTBALL WAGERS
I don’t believe it is wise to get involved with betting on individual matches at this early stage of the season until form has settled down somewhat. Hence, we will start providing detailed selections in the next few weeks or so. Having said that, for those of you who insist on such things the Spy suggests you look closely at the following teams as representing sound chances of winning this weekend; Reading, Wigan, Hartlepool, Colchester, Luton, Northampton and Bury.
For those of you who have been investing on our pre-season selections across the divisions, I think in all cases the prices available currently are far shorter than when we advised them. For those looking to have further bets, we would suggest a close look at Sheffield United (33-1 Coral) and Mansfield (28-1 Stan James) on an each way basis. Both of these sides have started slowly but have experienced managers (Warnock and Curle) who have stated they believe there sides can go close this season. In Warnock’s case he has stated his current side is the best he has had under his leadership while Curle was adamant his side would go close after their 3-0 win at Chester last weekend. While we acknowledge that managers often get things wrong, it might be worth backing these two sides in view of the confidence that is held in them. We hinted that Sheffield United (who were our Division 1 selection last season) might offer some value at 20-1 in our pre-season review in view of the resources at their disposal - double carpet looks too big if Warnock is anywhere near right. Mansfield reached the play-offs last time but had a huge turnaround of players (both in and out) in the close season. If, Curle can get them to gel quickly then the offer from Stan James might look generous enough come next May. A small each way interest on both is advised.
HORSE RACING ¯¯ [THE SPY AT NEWBURY]
Undercover in Berkshire last weekend the following should be watched closely in their forthcoming engagements;
Kool (Cole) the consistent gelding finished runner-up here but his turn looks close at hand of current mark. Consistent (and looking extremely well in the paddock) he was only beaten in a blanket finish.
Look out for Pillars of Wisdom (Dunlop) (would not go in the stalls here) a strong, well built horse who caught the eye in the paddock as being ready to run a good race here (though I doubt he would have beaten the impressive Etlaala who looks to have a big future). Bred to win at around 7F mark as a two year old let’s hope they can get him in the stalls next time - you can sure he will be fit.
In the other two year old contest, 3 horses caught my attention the stable companions Mayadeen (Tregoning),& Sarem (Tregoning) and Spanish Ridge (Dunlop). Mayadeen backed in from 20-1 to half that price (looked every inch a racehorse in the paddock) finished 3rd (coming from some way back), Sarem (did not turn a hair in the paddock and moved beautifully to post) led for a long way but appeared to get tired and Spanish Ridge (very green and a huge horse) will show plenty of improvement for this experience but finished to good effect into fourth here - will be suited by a step up in trip. All seem to have a future and can land maiden race wins before going on to better things.
Have a good week!!!
THE SPY
PREVIEW OF THE ´04/5 PREMIERSHIP SEASON
by I~SÞY.
Thursday, 12 August 2004
As I indicated in the pre-season review last year, the bookmakers traditionally remove any semblance of value from backing the "big three" - Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea - in the outright market. On that basis, as I suggest that you would have to be an optimist to look beyond these teams, that consideration of the handicap betting options is the best way forward in searching for that illusive value. All teams are 15-1 the field (with most firms). This was our approach last year and as explained in our update last week one of our selections (Bolton) finished third losing out in cruel circumstances on goal difference when only requiring a home draw against Fulham to land the bet. With that experience in mind, we are hopeful that we can go two places better this time.
And realistically Bolton must can go close again. They have a 35-point head start on the scratch side (Arsenal) and are in fact just two points worse of with the Gunners from last season. Arsenal (the winners last year on handicap on goal difference) had to go unbeaten all season to achieve that - as I cannot see that happening again that puts these two sides chances into some sort of perspective. Bolton essentially need to have a reasonable season again while Arsenal need to pull out all the stops. This also demonstrates the task ahead for those teams at the head of the handicap. Of those Chelsea (who I believe can win the title this time because of the quality players that have arrived) must be considered closely with a 3 point start rather than Manchester United (generally 4 points) and Liverpool (14 points is best) but still inadequate by a long way for Pool.
Taking account of European distractions and other cup runs for the top sides, I think probably the value lies in considering the chances of those sides in the middle of the handicap. In that category, I would include Bolton, Charlton, Middlesboro and Birmingham and while I would not put you off backing any of these sides (they all have the potential to improve on what they did last season with improved squads) I propose to look elsewhere. I just feel that Birmingham and Middlesboro don´t have quite enough points while Charlton are due a poor season. Having said that, just good seasons by their standards should be enough to get them in the picture. The somewhat surprise selection is Portsmouth (plus 40 points) with Coral. I do believe they can carry their end of season improvement into this new season as they certainly have been during pre-season. You can actually get plus 41 points with Ladbrokes if you prefer but in considering the points differential with those sides listed above (that I consider to be the principle dangers) the Coral offer is better. Portsmouth (who may improve their squad further with Carrick) will surely benefit from their tough experience in their first season back in the big time and you can guarantee that Harry Redknapp will bring out the best of a team with limited resources. Having said that, they have added some pace to their front line (coincided with their improved form last season) that I am hopeful can see them exceed their points total from last season. With 40 points already in the bag, they look guaranteed to give us a good run for our money. As I believe Chelsea look likely to win the title they should also be backed to overcome the handicap (despite how difficult this will be as outlined above I cannot resist them) and 15-1 looks far more attractive than the offers of less than 2-1 outright on offer. They should be backed with the Tote (rather than Hills) who both offer Chelsea with a 3-point start but again taking account of the wider point differentials with the "danger sides" means the Tote offeris far more preferable.
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RECOMMENDATION
Portsmouth ¯¯ [+40 @15-1 Coral]
Chelsea ¯¯ [+3 @ 15-1 Tote]
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I suggest two further bets. They revolve around Blackburn. I suggest they should be backed to be relegated (10-1 Tote and elsewhere) along with Souness their manager to be the first manager sacked 9-1 (Hills). As we demonstrated last season with our selections of Leeds /Reid (Leeds were relegated and Reid was the second manager to go) there is a certain logic to my choice. I believe there is every chance (and certainly value) to backing these two choices. Mostly importantly, Blackburn look set to struggle again (they escaped relegation last season with little to spare) and the squad I would suggest has not been improved sufficiently to avoid a similar battle this time. Further departures may take place in the coming weeks if the tabloid reports of unrest between certain players and manager are to be believed. The loss of Cole (not convinced by replacement Dickov) may mean that scoring goals will again be a problem. The young lad from Huddersfield (Stead) whose goals saved them last year may be less successful this time (he will be watched very closely now) and the pressure for goals won´t help him. And how will Souness cope with the pressure - will that generate more dressing room confrontations. How long will players respect a man who rules by the fist? If, that situation grows it is easy to see an early departure for the Scotsman.
Having said the above, stakes must be kept small on both suggested bets. I say this as there are already rumours that Paul Sturrock (Southampton) is on borrowed time while Kevin Keegan looks a worthy favourite to be on his bike first. As Keegan´s Manchester City look set to struggle again along with the promoted sides and Everton the competition for relegation places looks quite open, therefore the chance of a Blackburn to escape is increased. Keep stakes to a minimum.
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RECOMMENDATION
Blackburn to be relegated @ 10-1 Tote
Souness to be sacked first @ 9-1 Hills
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UPDATE ON LAST WEEK
After quiet starts both Bristol City and Yeovil (both one draw and one defeat in opening matches) have been pushed out in price by the bookmakers. This is ridiculous and the better prices on offer should be taken to top up on our opening bets. Bristol City are available at 8-1 and Yeovil at 16-1. The basis for suggesting these sides holds good just 7 days later. Wigan have already been cut from 12-1 to 6-1 in places so a positive start there. Hereford remain 8-1 with Coral and should be taken (shorter elsewhere).
I~SÞY.
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This
page was updated on
Friday December 30, 2005
at
05:30:20 AM
.
FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
"I
SPY!!" - ODDS ON SPORT -
is the latest
addition to the Furlong To Go portfolio. We have been considering doing
this for a while, and we hope to be able to offer you opportunities to
place wagers on most sports, though initially we will be concentrating
on football. We hope you find this latest feature of some use.
POSTING
TIME
Selections should be available after 16.00pm on Fridays. Hopefully this helps
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Latest
Horse racing News
Success
Stories
THE JULY MEETING
Thursday,
July 11th 2002
2:50
Weatherbys Superlative Stakes (Listed Race) £21750 added, 2yo only, 7f,
penalty £13496.60, 7 runners.
Kawagino, Magistretti, Mubeen, Celtic Sapphire, Our Teddy, and Surbiton,
appear to be the horses to consider in race two. Magistretti, [who created
a favourable impression when winning at Sandown on his debut] should
figure strongly, however I expect (hope) that Celtic Sapphire, and
Surbiton, fight this out. Celtic Sapphire, has run well on both start thus
far, most recently when staying on really well in the final quarter mile
to get within 1/2Length of Helm Bank in the Chesham Stakes at the Royal
Meeting. She should go well, however Surbiton, - who met with severe
interference in the Coventry Stakes last time out - is taken to atone for
that unlucky run.
Surbiton
obliged at 16/1.
EPSOM
Friday, June 7th 2002
KAZZIA (GER) - It is easy to understand how it was possible for Kazzia to
go into this season's 1000 Guineas unsupported as punters often
underestimate the strength of foreign form, particularly that show in
Germany or Italy. The warning signs arguably could have gone off in our
head at the beginning of the year, as you would have to ask why Godolphin
with all their riches would buy a filly who won an ordinary 7f maiden at
Hoppegarten before landing a Group 3 at San Siro last October. We now know
that to be one of their wisest purchases as this daughter of Zinaad
managed to withhold the late thrust of Snowfire to land the 1000 Guineas,
despite that race being run at a virtual crawl. She is bred to get further
and is proven on the ground...major chance!!!
Kazzia obliges at odds of
100/30
DISCLAIMER:
In no way does "Furlong To Go!! guarantee that selections
posted above will win the specified races advertised.
They are merely an indication based on current form. Whilst
the selections, and advice are the basis by which we will
personally place our own bets, like you, any selections
that are backed, are done so at your own risk.
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