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"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?"
"I
SPY!!" - ODDS ON SPORT -
is the latest
addition to the Furlong To Go portfolio. We have been considering doing
this for a while, and we hope to be able to offer you opportunities to
place wagers on most sports, though initially we will be concentrating
on football. We hope you find this latest feature of some use
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND - END OF SEASON REVIEW
As promised in our last report, you will find below a summary of the performance of The Spy's pre-season ante-post football selections. We hope you appreciate this transparency.
Firstly, I hope those of you who followed our advice in that last report made a healthy profit. 100% right (excluding the shocks section) on selected matches can't be bad and I was pleased to end the last full week of the season with such a flourish.
Ante-post
After the Spy filled his boots by backing Brighton to win Division 3 the previous season hopes were high for another profitable time. It didn't work out that way as you will see below and a combination of wrong choices and no little bad fortune played its part (after all you only really need one large priced winner to make the whole thing pay but it wasn't to be). I hope in any case those of you who read the summary benefited from the general advice it gave (which was overall fairly sound) despite the actual bets not delivering the goods.
Premiership
No bet recommendation for either the Championship or relegation. Amongst our comments on the relegation issue was strong advice that Derby (6-5 Coral) would go down "look no further than Derby... they simply do not look up to the task". We also included Leicester in the list of teams who could go the same way.
Division 1
The Spy took a stand here - to oppose Manchester City - and that quite simply failed. Our recommended bets therefore on Preston and Wimbledon went astray. In mid-season, when The Spy still remained unconvinced by the Manchester City defence, further recommendations on Millwall and Norwich also went down. To complete a sorry picture here, the handicap selection of Crewe had a poor time all round and never at any stage looked like landing the spoils even with their 32-point head start.
Division 2
No Championship recommendation (if only I had stayed loyal to Brighton!). In our comments, our tentative selection was Reading (finished runners up) and our list of leading teams to consider included 3 of the 4 eventual play-off contenders. However, the only recommended bet in this section was for Northampton to be relegated at 11-2. After being bottom for a long while (and in big trouble) they managed to escape in the final weeks of the season after putting a sustained run of good results together eventually finishing one place above the drop zone.
Division 3
Where did Plymouth come from? The bet recommendation for the Championship was Hull - they disappointed very badly quite frankly (considering the support and financial strength at their disposal) and never at any stage looked like making a challenge. Again, in our comments (frustratingly) our comments reflected the strong thoughts for Rushden, Cheltenham and Rochdale and Hartlepool "can press for play-off places" and all four made it to that stage! The other recommendation was for Carlisle to finish bottom - they were in contention for a large part of the season and occupied that spot for a while but eventually pulled clear. The result of the recommendation for Mansfield and Shrewsbury (at 17-1) to be the handicap winners of this section proved a bitter pill to swallow. Mansfield (with 103 points) finishing runners-up (after leading for a long way) to Plymouth (112). Mansfield's bad spell late on cost them dear here.
Conference
Another hard one to take! The recommended bet was Dagenham (10-1) and, of course, those who backed them will know they missed out on goal difference going to the last game. No consolation, but Boston (eventual winners) were mentioned as the principal rivals alongside Doncaster and Yeovil. I think Dagenham's prolonged FA Cup run eventually cost them at the end of the day.
Rugby Union
As we said earlier in the year in our Heineken Cup review, Leicester were the most likely winners and of course they have reached the final so hopes are high. You will recall we gave Bath as an alternative and they went well for a long way too at a tasty price. We include mention of Bath again here because they have hit dire straights. They face an important game against Wasps this weekend and need a result to preserve their top-flight status. We don't feel they will achieve this with the spate of injuries to their back line and the fact that they will have to rely on youth to see them through such a tough test. This defence is likely to be steamrollered and we confidently expect a Wasps victory - while we are not sure of the prices as we write we suggest you get on the men in black.
WORLD CUP 2002
Look out in the coming weeks for our thoughts on this competition. An initial recommendation would be to consider Spain (8-15) to win their Group which looks a formality now that we have seen what Paraguay (their nearest rivals) are made of following the England friendly match. Slovenia and South Africa should not worry them either judged on their qualification to the finals.
Please do e-mail us at the usual address with any comments on our Sport's service (principally football as things stand) as we always welcome the feedback.
THE SPY
ODDS ON SPORT
Thursday, May 09, 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
Caution. That's the key word from the Spy this weekend with the season largely at an end for most teams - unpredictable results will happen.
However, among those matches where teams have something to play for there looks to be some value. Rochdale (strong all season especially at
Scotland) look banker material to land the win which could guarantee them automatic promotion against the hugely disappointing Bristol Rovers. In the same vein, Rushden cannot afford to slip up at Halifax (I don't believe they will) while Hartlepool have to win at Exeter to make the play-offs. There recent away form makes this looks a real possibility. Up a division, we find similar scenario for Cardiff at Tranmere and they have sufficient firepower to land the spoils at a generally available 6-4.
In the upper reaches, West Bromwich need to dispose of Crystal Palace to gain automatic promotion - they have a good record against the Eagles at the Hawthorns and I doubt they will come unstuck on such an important occasion (Palace were dire at Crewe recently on their last away trip). Millwall look likely to dispose of Grimsby (but I have a nagging doubt or two) - similar thoughts about Birmingham against Sheffield United. For those just looking to top up accumulators then despite the importance of the matches for both sides, Arsenal will beat Ipswich (who have relegation written all over them - this could be a high score win) and Liverpool (Owen inspired ) can condemn Derby.
Shocks
Newcastle v Charlton - Charlton can never be taken for granted and they can provide a lifeline to Chelsea's European Cup ambitions by holding the Magpies.
Scunthorpe v York - York have turned over a new leaf and may cause an upset against promotion chasing Scunthorpe
Mansfield v Carlisle - Mansfield in poor form of late might not take all three points against a Carlisle side who are quite difficult to beat of late.
Next Week
Watch for our full update on our ante-post football selections performance. Fingers crossed for Dagenham and Redbridge in the Conference!
THE SPY
Friday, April 19, 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?
The Spy looks at this weekend's football programme.
At this crucial stage of the season, there are matches involving teams which simply must win against sides with nothing to play for. In our experience this can pay handsome dividends. Typical of this is the match at Birmingham (play-off contenders) needing to win at home to Portsmouth (who are only modest at best but safe) - the 2-5 generally available looks tempting. Hartlepool (with an outside chance of the play-offs) can win at Halifax and they are a shade of odds on to do so. Plymouth needing to win to ensure they are DIV 3 champions should have to much up their sleeve for Southend and are around 4-11 to win at Home Park. Notts County really need to maintain their smart recent form against Blackpool
nothing to play for) to avoid the Div 2 trapdoor - their form warrants respect at a shade of odds on generally. Wimbledon require all three points against Bradford to get into the play-off argument in Div 1 and I see no reason why they cannot dispose of a "safe" Bradford outfit. Rochdale, Brighton and Shrewsbury are all worthy of close consideration too in their matches for those looking to make up larger accumulators. One team in this category (Mansfied) need to beat lowly Bristol Rovers to maintain their promotion push, but they have hit an appalling spell and may be best avoided for win purposes. Another shock could be at Man City where just a point will give City the title against a desperately point seeking Barnsley. Rotherham might surprise at West Bromwich too but that I'm less confident about.
Good luck.
THE SPY
ODDS ON SPORT
Saturday, 6 April 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND - WEEK 9
The Spy's thoughts are below (slightly different approach this week);
Our verdict on the Premiership matches this weekend;
Aston Villa v West Ham (Home win)
Bolton v Blackburn (Away win)
Charlton v Chelsea (Away win)
Derby v Man Utd (Away win)
Everton v Leeds (Away win)
Fulham v Liverpool (Away win)
Ipswich v Southampton (Away win)
Middlesboro v Leicester (Home win)
Newcastle v Arsenal (Away win)
Tottenham v Sunderland (Home win)
Elsewhere - Aways
Barnsley v Millwall - looks a sound away win prospect (6-4 general) with the Barnsley rearguard non-existent in recent weeks. With Millwall tight at the back this looks a comfortable match in Yorkshire for the Lions (which has not been the case for visiting teams to Oakwell in recent times).
Grimsby v Crystal Palace - similar comments here in that Grimsby is never an easy place to go. This year they have been beaten 7 times already however and are in deep trouble. They score rarely - although rattled up three against lowly Stockport in midweek. Palace will be tougher (they need the points to get into the play-offs) and score for fun on occasions. Palace are 6-4 and 11-8 to oblige.
Bolton v Blackburn - makes plenty of appeal with confidence and team spirit at new levels after their surprise cup win last week. At around 7-4 they need to win hear to close the gap on their nearest relegation rivals - which happen to be Bolton!. Bolton are game but lack the quality to stay in the Premiership - Blackburn showed they have that in abundance last week.
Lincoln v Carlisle - makes somewhat more limited appeal in view of the Cumbrians excellent recent form. Lincoln are poor and confidence is only tempered by the lack of ambition Carlisle show on their travels. But now they are free from relegation fears they may open up a little - 2-1 with Hills to land the spoils (a little shorter elsewhere).
The Homes
Look thin on the ground frankly. Wolves would be the banker. Middlesboro should overcome Leicester while Cheltenham can see off poor travellers Rushden. Little else makes much appeal.
The Shocks
Torquay v Luton - not an obvious away in view of Luton's away form and the recent improvement in the seasider's form. Torquay have a 1-1 draw habit - this could be the result again here.
Macclesfield v Plymouth - another seemingly obvious away win for the runaway leaders. However, this is a tough venue to win at and Plymouth may we suspect be quite happy to return south undefeated.
Leyton Orient v Halifax - Halifax getting anything from a game would be a major bonus in their current plight. We suspect Orient are in such dire form that a draw is well within their capabilities.
Recommendation
The Spy suggest a combination of bets on the away wins outlined above. For the more adventurous combine some of these with the suspected draws in the shocks section.
THE SPY
ODDS ON SPORT
Thursday, 28 February 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?- WEEK 8
The Spy's thoughts for the fixtures this weekend follow;
Homes
Home winners look in abundance this weekend and it really is a question of sorting out the best value among them. In the Worthington Final, Tottenham make plenty of appeal at around the even money mark to see off plummeting Blackburn despite this being a one off final. Spurs really look to be going places under Hoddle and are likely to have most of the individual match winners on their side - they are playing with plenty of confidence unlike their opponents. Alongside this we suggest West Bromwich (Scrooge could play in their back four so few goals do they concede) who will be eager to make up for a rare defeat at Millwall earlier this week. Birmingham make some appeal here too and are worthy of a close look. While Brentford, Brighton and Cardiff are of some interest in Div 2, we think Div 3 offers plenty more opportunities in the shape of Rushden, Bristol Rovers, Luton, Darlington and Plymouth. Of these Plymouth (runaway leaders) and Rushden (difficult at home) look the best value/safest options against a limited Kidderminster side and Orient who are in real trouble and badly out of sorts. After our disappointments last week in dipping into the Scottish league, we will stick with the Premiership to complete our bet. Man U are the obvious home, Southampton make some appeal, as do Liverpool. We will risk the Derby draw syndrome by selecting the Reds to take advantage of an Everton side who hit new lows last week against Crewe.
Aways
With the confidence in the home selections there really is no need to look in this quarter in our view. For those interested, the banker for us is Wolves (reflected in the cramped odds), less confidence in Manchester City at Walsall but they really should deliver (again heavily odds on though). Swansea at Halifax is another to consider (around 11-8 is only fair) while we quite like the look of Cheltenham at Carlisle but even they are at
skinny odds and the Cumbrians are on an upward curve. A close look at our pre-season hopes Mansfield at Shrewsbury is perhaps slightly less obvious but this is reflected in their price of around 6-4 which could be rewarding such is their current form.
Draws
The importance of the match (a real six pointer) could mean Leicester v Derby will be too scared to be too adventurous and result in stalemate. Millwall and Wimbledon may well share the spoils in the South London Derby and Blackpool v Huddersfield is sure to be tight....
Good luck.
Recommendation
Home accumulator (Liverpool, Tottenham, West Bromwich, Rushden and Plymouth. Also back Spurs to dispose of Blackburn in a win single. Take Gus Poyet (make sure he is actually playing!) to score the first goal.
THE SPY
Thursday, February 21, 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?- WEEK 7
After saying the fixtures looked difficult last week, I have to say there is scarcely any improvement for the matches this weekend. Here are the Spy's thoughts in any case.
F.A. Cup
It is hard to see where the shocks could come from and we doubt there will be any. Arsenal (home win), Chelsea (home win), Everton (home win), Middlesboro (home win), Newcastle (home win), Tottenham (home win), Walsall (away) and West Bromwich (home win) are our somewhat predictable forecasts. If pressed, in form Cheltenham at around 8-1 might provide a surprise at the Hawthorns but West Brom themselves could hardly be in better nick and are not easily opposed. The other at 7-1 (which is not over generous in our view) is our old friends Crewe at Everton who are not a great side and don't score too many. Despite the underlying talent in the Crewe side, we doubt they will be good enough overall and Everton really must win this to maintain an interest this season.
The remainder of the coupon is difficult (as previously stated) and those which we suggest make some appeal are limited to include home bankers Mansfield, first division Airdrie to win at Arbroath, Livingston to dispose of St Johnstone and table toppers Plymouth to make hay at bottom club Halifax. Surprise away this week might be Wrexham at QPR (best priced at 9-2).
Recommendation
Suggest a couple of away win lines this week (Fulham, Airdrie and Livingston) & the same sides plus Wrexham.
THE SPY
Saturday, February 16, 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?- WEEK 6
Our comments last week went rather well overall, including the success of our low score system (more of that below), but this week the coupon presents a stiff challenge for all punters. In our view, little is straightforward and bets must be kept to a minimum - especially with the Scottish programme offering no help.
For the record, we see Reading as the weekend home banker against a poor Notts County outfit who are badly leaking goals just now. We suggest in form West Bromwich against below par Norwich, Scunthorpe (who score
freely) against Oxford, Bristol Rovers against Halifax and Darlington against Shrewsbury can make up the home win accumulator. Alternatives would include Barnsley against faltering Burnley or Hartlepool against Torquay (but we just have a doubt that this might be a draw).
The Low Scoring System
The Middlesboro v Charlton fixture was put forward last week as the selection and as in the trials we were successful with the 0-0 scoreline showing a profit overall. You will recall that we take the best prices about the 0-0 &1-1 draw options combined with 1-0 scorelines for the home and away options. As luck would have it though, as well as being a difficult week for predicting results there appears to be few options for this system this week - perhaps Fulham v Blackburn makes most appeal. However, we have our doubts. For that reason I went in search of foreign matches and appear to have found a gem in Seria A. Both Venezia and Fiorentina are having a tough time this year with just 6 wins between them all season - more significantly for our purposes they have scored just 18 and 23 goals in all those matches. There match this weekend is a real relegation battle and with their attacks so poor and with so much at stake this looks an ideal candidate for this weeks selection.
Recommendation
Low Score system (as above). Home win accumulator combining Reading, West Bromwich, Bristol Rovers, Scunthorpe and Darlington.
THE SPY
Friday, February 08, 2002
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND? - WEEK
5
Firstly, many apologies for the interrupted service over the past two weeks.
Many of you who have followed our pre-season ante-post selections will have noticed with disappointment (like the Spy himself) the recent cycle of results which have seen many highly promising positions turnaround (I have in mind, inter alia, the downturn in fortunes of Dagenham in the Conference, the winning spurt from Carlisle in Division 3 and the similar revival of Northampton in Division 2. Let's hope for a return to more favourable results shortly otherwise our bets will be lost.
But for this week these sides (such is their current form) could be the foundation of our bets this week. Northampton look overpriced at 3-1 for a win at Swindon for example while Carlisle are in such good nick that they look almost bankers to overrun Hartlepool at a shade of odds against (6-5). Crewe one of our handicap picks have also hit a rich vein of form and at 5-1 (Coral) look overpriced at inconsistent Birmingham. Another in-form/out of form confrontation between Burnley and West Bromwich looks more likely to go the way of the West Midlanders and the 11-5 quote is attractive.
Sticking with our ante-post selections, one has to have doubts about Millwall beating Walsall and I regret to say this could be a surprise draw this week and is best avoided for home win purposes. Similarly, Hull are badly disappointing us at the moment and they may not overcome bottom side Halifax based on recent away performances - they look short at 5-4. Best avoided. Man U and Newcastle play two very out of form sides (Sunderland and Bolton respectively) they should land the home odds for those requiring short priced bankers.
For the bet this week, however, we'll try something different. We have been experimenting with a new system and the initial trials have been totally successful culminating with a winning return on the Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth match midweek (10-1 winning odds). The basis of the selection is to choose a match which you feel will be low scoring and back the low scoring options. For the Forest game above, we backed the 0-0 and 1-1 draws and 1-0 wins for both sides. Although involving 4 bets, the odds are sufficiently generous enough to show a significant profit (even when subtracting losses) as in the above example. So we suggest the Middlesboro and Charlton game for this treatment and suggest you search out the most favorable odds on the day for the 4 low score options. Everton v Ipswich is another to consider.
Recommendation
As well as the suggestion above, a small stakes away treble on West Bromwich , Crewe and Northampton might prove profitable.
THE SPY
Saturday, February 02, 2002
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?" - WEEK 3
Unfortunately The Spy is away this week so no
selections I'm afraid - normal service should resume next weekend. Here is a little review by him of some of his ante-post suggestions;
Heineken Cup
Our ante-post suggestion to win this outright (Bath 18-1 Stan James) is looking very healthy unlike The Spy himself. Bath won their Group and were the only undefeated side of all the contestants in the competition despite their indifferent league form. This has earned them a home tie with Llanelli (not the best of travellers) so a semi-final place is looking good. Only one side has ever won an away quarter final since this competition began so that boosts our confidence.
Division 1
Manchester City continue to look strong - no sign of weakening yet. Nevertheless, our ante-post suggestion to back Millwall over the last few weeks looks reasonable after The Lion's win in midweek to take them to second. Our 22-1 bet looks good - 14-1 is the best available know with Ladbrokes although they are a lot shorter elsewhere.
THE SPY
Sunday, January 13, 2002
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?" - WEEK 2
Ante-Post reminder
I suggested last week that both Millwall and Norwich were both worth considering as an option to the odds on Manchester City for the Division 1 title race. This is still the case with no games of significance bar Millwall's draw with decent Birmingham on Thursday. For those interested, Ladbrokes have pushed the Lions out a further two points (now 22-1) following that display - as far as I'm concerned what stood last week stands now. Norwich are still available at 33-1 with Coral a price which will soon disappear if they can achieve victory at Maine Road this weekend. No forlorn hope that.
Saturday's selections
Several sides who are in pretty poor shape just now look worth considering to make up this weekend's bet. Portsmouth (hammered in the FA Cup last week) at Bradford, Stockport (3 heavy defeats on the trot) at home to Crystal Palace, Northampton (in poor form since day 1) at home to Stoke and the game between Wolves and Coventry (both out of sorts) fall into this category. All of these teams form is uninspiring to say the least and in some cases have hit rock bottom. Combine these with form sides like Gillingham and Burnley and a nice little accumulator could be possible.
Recommendation
Small stakes accumulator therefore; Bradford (home), C Palace (away), Burnley (away), Gillingham (home), Wolves (draw) and Stoke (away).
THE SPY
Saturday, January 12, 2002
"SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?" 2002 - WEEK 1
"The Spy" wishes you a Happy New Year.
While we have little doubt that there will be numerous further postponements tomorrow to add to the considerable number of matches which have already fallen foul of the weather here are our thoughts on the best bets in the 3rd round of the FA Cup.
Firstly, let's look at the chances of the 2 non-league survivors Canvey Island and Dagenham as we feel one of these sides represents the bet of the weekend. Canvey are a best priced 14-1 with Coral for their visit to Burnley while Dagenham are a best priced 15-2 with Ladbrokes for the visit of Premiership side Ipswich. Canvey looked a pretty limited outfit to me in their creditable televised victory over a poor Northampton side in the second round while lacking nothing in spirit or effort. Burnley who lie 2nd in Div 1 are having an excellent and consistent season. Turf Moor has been no easy place to visit this season and I can find little to suggest an upset can happen here. In contrast, the 15-2 Dagenham must be snapped up. While no non-league side has ever knocked a Premiership side out of the FA Cup these odds make the risk worth taking. Dagenham (as regular readers will know) were our selection to win the Conference pre-season and they are doing us proud as things stand. They are a formidable attacking force (Stein - who will not play - McDougald and Charlery) have had excellent seasons while the defence has been consistently good too bar a big lapse recently against Telford (lost 5-1). With home advantage and significantly news that Ipswich are likely to be very unsettled at the back with three of their 5 defenders (including the keeper) unlikely to play (they will also be missing the useful forward Armstrong) this looks a combination with upset written all over it. Added to this is the motivation factor - Ipswich will surely want to put all their efforts into staying in the Premiership (if only for financial reasons) and do not need the distraction of a Cup run. I doubt how much they will "want" this.
In other matches there seems little value in backing the banker homes Newcastle and Millwall or the more obvious aways in Leeds or Arsenal which are all heavily odds on. Even Stoke (going so well in Div 2) price of 12-5 against Everton looks positively skinny despite the obvious possibilities of an upset taking place. I suggest the best of the rest are Norwich @4-1 to beat unpredictable Chelsea, Birmingham to beat Liverpool @9-1 (the Blues are going really well under their new manager and Liverpool are not firing and probably the second best bet this weekend Mansfield @9-1 (Betabet) to beat Premiership strugglers Leicester. Mansfied (our handicap pick for Div 3) are a young side which is going places -Greenacre scores the goals and gets the credit - but they are a useful outfit overall. Despite the apparent class gap, these factors can hardly be said of Leicester who are nothing but hardworking.
Division 1 - Ante Post update
As regular readers will know, we have long since insisted this section is wide open with no outstanding team on display. While there is no doubt Manchester City are the class side in the Division on their day, their defence is still vulnerable in our opinion and it is only their formidable strike force which sees them through. Despite these frailties they have risen to the top of the pile and are a best priced 8-11 on to win the league championship. This may well be the case but does not represent any value whatsoever and they are worth taking on. Among a host of challengers two sides finding form (Millwall and Norwich) make considerable appeal to us at current odds. Are Millwall really 20-1 chances with Ladbrokes? Surely Norwich are overpriced at 33-1 with Coral to land the title? We feel they certainly both represent considerable value as the season enters it's final third as they are both in cracking form and appear to be going from strength to strength. In what is a wide open year they look worth backing to small stakes only because in the back of your mind you just have to doubt they have the class to win the championship outright. But this is a charge which can be levelled at almost all the other contenders as things stand. And when will Manchester City's strikeforce hit a bad patch - could this happen at the most critical stage of the season - I just wonder.
Recommendation
Back Dagenham (best bet) @15-2 with Ladbrokes to cause the "surprise" of the round. Take Norwich, Mansfield (next best) and Birmingham to small stakes to land their ties.
Small stakes bets on Millwall (20-1 Ladbrokes) and Norwich 33-1 (Coral) are advised.
THE SPY
Friday, January 04, 2002
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