"FOOTBALL"  

Analysis & Selections by

"ï~spy"

 Whether it be "the race of the day" or a small prize round the gaffs, we will attempt to use our knowledge of the formbook to highlight the fancied horses participating each day and their characteristics and requirements. Hopefully this 'second opinion' provides you with a winner or two each day, or even reinforces your own view on a particular may even convince you to back some of those horses which we feel are the "ones to fear", or have decent eachway claims. whichever is the case, we hope the information is of use to you. 

PREVIEW OF THE 2003/4 FOOTBALL SEASON 
by Ï~SPY

Introduction
Well you have no doubt read the other reviews (the Racing Post effort was superb) but here are my relatively brief thoughts on where you should be placing your money on the forthcoming season. I hope to be able to repeat the success from last season where Wigan (8-1) and Rushden (8-1) hopefully helped fill some wallets. In the Conference meanwhile, while I suggested Yeovil were the likely winners one of our selections (Morecombe) - the surprise team of the season - were shock runners up. As we have been highlighting them for two seasons now their effort did not surprise us here and hopefully, some of you were on at the 18-1 each way. 

PREMIERSHIP 
No outright selection in this section last season and the same conclusion this time. As usual the value has been well and truly squeezed out of this particular market with the top two contenders and the chasing pack all very short. Look to the handicap betting (bets must be placed before the season begins) and the suggestion is to consider closely the chances of Birmingham, Bolton and Southampton. At 15-1 the field the odds allow more than one bet to be placed and each of these sides have considerable head starts on the key players. Ladbrokes seem best offering Birmingham (+36), Bolton (+40) and Southampton (+36) head starts over the scratch team Manchester United. I expect all three sides to do relatively well this term in particular Birmingham who bought well last season and have added quality to the squad close season (David Dunn for example). Bolton to have some quality players (Okocha is wonderful) and have added to their squad with shrewd signings. Southampton have just had a fine season and would become an even more potent force if they secure the signing of Kevin Phillips who will always score plenty of goals. He and James Beattie could scare defences to death. Southampton would only be a bet if Phillips signs however. All three sides have the potential to have good seasons and may (with a little luck) be able to capitalise on their huge points advantage. Here's hoping that they give us a good run for our money - with such a head start that is almost guaranteed and we have some value as well.

Another first rate opportunity is for Leeds to be relegated. They have all the signs of a team in trouble and have not won any of their pre-season friendly matches (most recently lost 2-0 to Irish side Shelbourne) which follows a series of defeats against lower league opposition. With star names either looking to jump ship or having already departed Peter Reid has a tough job on his hands. They have a difficult start to the campaign which could see them bottom of the table in the early weeks which will make the pressure on them immense. With no great money to spend and Reid's qualities as a manager suspect to say the least they must be backed to fall through the Premiership trap door. 7-1 is to good to miss.

If, the logic above is good, then Peter Reid to be the first manager to leave his current position (11-1 Hills) also stands out. Leeds fans are hardly the most patient and the vocal pressure on the board to sack Reid will not be slow in being delivered. As there is a danger that we are putting all our eggs in one basket here, the other suggestion is to back Chris Coleman (Fulham) at a general 5-1 to be the first to be removed. Fayed is not the most patient of men (7 managers in 7 years) and is unlikely to give the novice Coleman too many chances to prove himself. With a limited squad at his disposal (weakened further still over the close season) it is not impossible that a bad start could mean a quick exit for the amiable Welshman as Fayed searches for a bigger name to fill his chair. 

For those of you who like to speculate a little then how about Steve McClaren @20-1 to go first. This would not reflect on his managerial ability in the negative sense but on his qualities which are widely sort after. I have in mind the position of England manager Sven Goran Eriksson - who is to say he won't jump ship if England fail in their European qualifiers or if he receives a tempting offer. I'm sure McClaren would be the one England bosses would turn to. 

RECOMMENDATIONS 
Handicap betting;
Birmingham (+36) - Ladbrokes @15-1
Bolton (+40) - Ladbrokes@15-1 
Southampton (+36) - only if Kevin Phillips signs - Ladbrokes@15-1 

1st manager to leave
Peter Reid @11-1 Hills
Chris Coleman @ 5-1 (generally available)

Relegation
Leeds @ 7-1 Corals and Stanley

DIVISION ONE
This market largely revolves about how you view West Ham's chances after their relegation last season with the most points ever for a relegated club. After Saturday's opening victory at Preston, 7-2 Chandler is the best price on offer. I must confess with the sweeping clear-out that has recently taken place of their leading players (more to follow including Defoe?) makes them of limited appeal at the time of writing. So who can we take them on with? There must be possibilities about West Bromwich as they have kept the backbone of the side which came down but they were a pretty dire outfit in the Premiership and always looked liked coming down. They just don't give me that buzz while Sunderland (the other relegated side) are far too short in many lists for a team in crisis. Oppose them. Norwich and Nottingham Forest are talented young sides who play football the right way but both may not have the strength in depth to go all the way (play-offs at best). Ipswich (finished well last year but weakened over the summer) Millwall (also finished to some effect and are a team on the move but may lack squad depth) and Wigan (run away winners of Div 2, ambitious and not short of a penny or two but have not added to their squad) all have potential to be the dark horses of this section. But overall, I suggest two bets on sides who have squads in place which are not only very talented but have quality in depth. Sheffield United showed their abilities in the Cup competitions last year and were only edged out of promotion in the play-offs. The cup runs probably cost them dear. That experience plus the additions to their squad during the close season can see them make another major challenge this time - they have a formidable strike force which surprisingly failed on the opening day but Gillingham are quite good at shutting out the opposition. To my mind, in the second half of last season at least, Reading were the best side in Division 1 by some distance (coincided with the arrival of Luke Chadwick of Man U) who they have not been able to keep hold off. Instead Scott Murray from Bristol City has been brought in (27 goals for them last season) and should prove a more than adequate replacement. While West Ham are being torn apart at the moment, Reading represent the finished article with a fine balance throughout the side and quality in all areas. They showed in there unlucky draw at Ipswich on Saturday just what a fine side they are - they play quality football too. With the promising Alan Pardew at the helm and a first rate ground everything is looking set up for Reading to mount a big challenge again this season and they can surpass their play-off effort last season and gain automatic promotion. 

RECOMMENDATION 
Reading @14-1 Stanley
Sheffield United @ 10-1 Bet 365 and Stanley

DIVISION TWO
Look no further than QPR. Another side who lost out in cruel circumstances in the play-off final but one with quality players throughout the side which significantly have all stayed on for another crack at the Div 2 title. They particularly appeal as an attacking force with quality in this area worthy of a higher division. The Blackpool defenders would no doubt agree after the 5-0 thumping QPR dished out on the opening day. The opposition is generally on the weak side and while the likes of Plymouth, Grimsby and Tranmere can all go well (play-off candidates) the main danger is likely to come from Bristol City who have had a tremendous pre-season and have scored goals for fun in these matches. They continued this trend on the opening day by disposing of Notts County 5-0. I don't necessarily see much between QPR and Bristol but I just suspect QPR' s greater strength in depth and experience can win the day. But, it could be close. The second favourites are Sheffield Wednesday but although they are a big club in these waters their team does not match up to their off the field stature. They can go well without being good enough.

RECOMMENDATION 
QPR @ 7-2 generally

DIVISION THREE
This revolves around Hull. We successfully opposed them at a short price last season and the question is should this be done again. I suspect it may be folly to do so. Peter Taylor is a fine coach and manager (he was a fine player too - I remember watching him in his Crystal Palace days and he was simply brilliant - so brilliant in fact that as a third division player he played for England at full international level. Unthinkable nowadays). That aside, I think it is clear that the signs are positive that he has eventually got it right and Hull are worthy favourites this time round with the extra quality of players he has now added to the squad. In short, they are now as talented on the pitch as everything off it. With that in mind, we have to be cautious about opposing them too strongly. However, I think we can with Yeovil who won the Conference in second gear last year and are a side (like Wigan in Div 1) who are going places. While it is quite a jump for them to make, the overall weakness of Div 3 (Oxford, Scunthorpe and Northampton aside) it is distinctly possible that their spirit of ambition (together with no shortage of quality in their ranks) can see them go close to upsetting Hull. A 3-1 away victory at Rochdale saw them off on the right foot on Saturday. They are also likely to be formidable opponents at home where they are well supported. Yeovil again play football "the West Ham way" and will be far too strong for many they will encounter this season. At around 9-1 they represent some value against the 100-30 best price on Hull. Scunthorpe have plenty of quality and for those looking for a more adventurous bet the 22-1 Skybet should be taken. 

RECOMMENDATION 
Yeovil @ 9-1 Coral

CONFERENCE 
Do we stick with Morecombe after suggesting them for the past two years or look elsewhere? I think that at 10-1 the answer has to be "yes". They have kept broadly the same players as last year where a good FA Cup run (eventually lost to Ipswich) probably hampered their chances. They are a talented and young side and providing they can step up on their away form and hold on to their young stars (always a danger at this level) can mount a serious challenge. The other side to back here is Shrewsbury who have gone unbeaten pre-season and have a depth of squad which can hold sway at this level. They also have a formidable strike force which if they can keep hold of players like Rodgers should be good enough to see them bounce back at the first attempt. Jimmy Quinn joining the club is probably the most decisive factor in making them our selection - his experience can prove invaluable in particular in sorting out a faulty defence which cost them dear in Div 3. Chester, Dagenham and Stafford all will win their fair share of matches and could mount challenges of sorts in quite an open Conference this time. This year's Morecombe could well be Burton (who look like a Nottingham Forest old boys team) but who under Nigel Clough could offer a surprise or two at double carpet odds.

RECOMMENDATION 
Shrewsbury @ 9-1 Stan James
Morecombe @ 9-1 generally 

THE SPY
Saturday, August 9.

This page was updated on Wednesday August 13, 2003 at 07:09:17 AM

FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

"I SPY!!" - ODDS ON SPORT - is the latest addition to the Furlong To Go portfolio. We have been considering doing this for a while, and we hope to be able to offer you opportunities to place wagers on most sports, though initially we will be concentrating on football. We hope you find this latest feature of some use.  

POSTING TIME
  Selections should be available after 16.00pm on Fridays. Hopefully this helps

contents

	Preview of the 2003/2004 Football Season
	Something for the Weekend 2003/4- Football Bets by The Spy - Section 1
	Preview of the 2002/2003 Football Season
	Something for the Weekend 2002/3- Football Bets by The Spy - Section 2
	Something for the Weekend 2002/3- Football Bets by The Spy - Section 1
	Preview of the 2001/2002 Football Season
	2001/2002 Football Bets by The Spy
	Something for the Weekend 2001- Football Bets by The Spy
	Sports Betting